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Originally Posted by mcap
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Originally Posted by mcap
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Originally Posted by smurgerburgerYou're supposed to actually win the argument before doing a victory dance.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
I didn't make an argument. I made an observation. If you missed the observation, then that says something about you.
I take it, genius-boy smurger missed the observation. As Gomer Pyle says, "Surprise, surprise, surprise."
If you know nothing about actual physical differences between different "racial" categories, now might be the time to brush up. There's something called physical anthropology. You might want to take a few classes. If you're going to argue there's no physical differences between Eskimos and Africans, God bless you.
What's amazing isn't the forum's general ignorance. What's amazing is that people think they're well informed.
Quote:
Originally Posted by redietzQuote:
Originally Posted by smurgerburgerYou're supposed to actually win the argument before doing a victory dance.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
I didn't make an argument. I made an observation. If you missed the observation, then that says something about you.
I take it, genius-boy smurger missed the observation. As Gomer Pyle says, "Surprise, surprise, surprise."
If you know nothing about actual physical differences between different "racial" categories, now might be the time to brush up. There's something called physical anthropology. You might want to take a few classes. If you're going to argue there's no physical differences between Eskimos and Africans, God bless you.
What's amazing isn't the forum's general ignorance. What's amazing is that people think they're well informed.
So you were observing rather than arguing that black participation was more important than tech changes, and that Half Smoke had missed this factor, perhaps due to the political indoctrination to which you are immune?
It is all vis-a-vis ....
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there's some MLB fans here
this is one of my fave vids
got him with the ole knuckler
not many knuckleballers out there now - just a couple I think
you almost feel sorry for the batters facing this outrageous pitch
a couple of them fell down trying to hit it____________-:)
one of the catchers couldn't even get his glove on it - it hit him in the chest
even the pitchers don't know how it's going to break
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qusYTWQFIF8
If blacks are the best hitters then why were they replaced by inferior/non black hitters?Quote:
Originally Posted by redietzQuote:
Originally Posted by smurgerburgerYou're supposed to actually win the argument before doing a victory dance.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
I didn't make an argument. I made an observation. If you missed the observation, then that says something about you.
I take it, genius-boy smurger missed the observation. As Gomer Pyle says, "Surprise, surprise, surprise."
If you know nothing about actual physical differences between different "racial" categories, now might be the time to brush up. There's something called physical anthropology. You might want to take a few classes. If you're going to argue there's no physical differences between Eskimos and Africans, God bless you.
What's amazing isn't the forum's general ignorance. What's amazing is that people think they're well informed.
This is a good question. Honestly this is like a make or break question foe redietz in my opinion. This is where he is supposed to really shine so he must have a decent answer.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimmIf blacks are the best hitters then why were they replaced by inferior/non black hitters?Quote:
Originally Posted by redietzQuote:
Originally Posted by smurgerburger
I didn't make an argument. I made an observation. If you missed the observation, then that says something about you.
I take it, genius-boy smurger missed the observation. As Gomer Pyle says, "Surprise, surprise, surprise."
If you know nothing about actual physical differences between different "racial" categories, now might be the time to brush up. There's something called physical anthropology. You might want to take a few classes. If you're going to argue there's no physical differences between Eskimos and Africans, God bless you.
What's amazing isn't the forum's general ignorance. What's amazing is that people think they're well informed.
Sure....that "extra muscle" business...Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimmIf blacks are the best hitters then why were they replaced by inferior/non black hitters?Quote:
Originally Posted by redietzQuote:
Originally Posted by smurgerburger
I didn't make an argument. I made an observation. If you missed the observation, then that says something about you.
I take it, genius-boy smurger missed the observation. As Gomer Pyle says, "Surprise, surprise, surprise."
If you know nothing about actual physical differences between different "racial" categories, now might be the time to brush up. There's something called physical anthropology. You might want to take a few classes. If you're going to argue there's no physical differences between Eskimos and Africans, God bless you.
What's amazing isn't the forum's general ignorance. What's amazing is that people think they're well informed.
The idea seems to be that black interest and participation in baseball has waned, so baseball has less access to that part of the talent pool. I have no argument with this.
My point was that redietz was so excited to celebrate his one-up over Half Smoke that he didn't realize he had done exactly what he insinuated Half Smoke had - he just took a correlation and assumed it was a cause.
One problem for redietz is the black % in baseball has steadily declined for something like 38 years now, having less and less effect on the overall MLB stat pool with every passing year, whereas Half Smoke seemed to be referring to something that occured over a much shorter period of time.
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some more fun with MLB history
a Gaylord Perry spitball strikes out Reggie Jackson and Reggie is furious about it
after that Bob Shaw shows how to throw a spitter - he taught Gaylord how to do it
and then some detail from Wiki about how great Gaylord Perry was with that spitter
my favorite statement from Gaylord Perry was "Everyone keeps asking me what kind of foreign substance was I putting on the ball? And I always answered I never put any foreign substance on the ball. Everything I used was American made"
the great Gaylord Perry passed a couple of years ago - r.i.p.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GiCeQel-G5Y
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.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FuP09m62sVs
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Perry became known for doctoring baseballs (throwing spitballs) and perhaps even more so for making batters think he was throwing them on a regular basis—he went so far as to title his 1974 autobiography Me and the Spitter, though he claimed that his use of the prohibited practice was in the past. He was the subject of two decades of controversy during which opposing managers, umpires and league officials frequently attempted to catch him in a violation, even revising rules and guidelines; despite the constant scrutiny, he was not ejected from a game for the practice until his 21st season in the majors in 1982. In the meantime, Perry firmly established himself as one of baseball's most accomplished pitchers. He won 20 games five times and struck out 200 batters eight times, leading his league in innings pitched and complete games twice each. He pitched a no-hitter in September 1968, three weeks after throwing a one-hitter, and also pitched thirteen career two-hitters. In 1978 Perry became the third pitcher to register 3,000 strikeouts, and while pitching for the Seattle Mariners in 1982, he became the first pitcher in 19 years to join the 300 win club; he joined Walter Johnson to become only the second pitcher to reach both milestones.
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last one - nicknamed Knucksie - Phil Niekro is widely regarded as the greatest knuckleball pitcher of all time - the movement he got on the ball is really crazy
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ifNuZTbEtgg
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deleted.
FanDuel will be fixing this quickly, if they haven’t already. They certainly don’t want smarts, they are living off the $20 lottery ticket prop 6 leg parlays guys.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
So it was one year ago that I began my sports betting bonus whoring at off shore sports books. I had been aware of this for some time and just didn't want to bother. It was actually a comment by Axelwolf that convinced me to give it a try. He said something to the effect that anyone could make 50k a year, even if you know little about sports. Well I am actually a sports enthusiast. Don't know if that works for or against me. ;)
So I played 4 books over the year. 2 that I already bet with (-EV) and 2 more recommended by other people. Over the course of the year I completed multiple rollover cycles and withdraws at all 4. Now I don't know how many sports book Axelwolf had in mind with his comment but I played 4 and did a little better than the number he claimed for the year.
Now, our resident sports expert/know it all, Redietz, said that I would quickly be cut off, doing what I am doing. So far he is mostly wrong. One of the 4 stopped offering the really good bonuses and rollover that I received for 3 cycles, but the other 3 have not. Still the same good offers and rollovers. And I added 2 new books to start the football season to replace the one that cut offers.
Red, could still be right in that at some point, I may start getting cut off by everyone. And if that happens that is fine. But so far so good. Looking forward to another fun and profitable football season, beginning with Half Smokes "1st 2 weeks NFL play". Happy football to all! :)
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Originally Posted by AxelWolf
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Originally Posted by MaxPen
Mdawg, you know nothing about sports or sports betting. Sports to you is camel racing.
So just STF up. Each time you write anything at all, you make a bigger ass of yourself.
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Originally Posted by MDawg
This guy repeatedly quotes himself and the has the gall to talk about mental disorders, which no doubt he is familiar with.
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Originally Posted by Seedvalue
You don't have to wait until you are cut off. Sign your brother up, bankroll it and give him a small cut. Then do the same with your mother. Then your friends.Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
I have to step in here and state the obvious. If you think, as kewlJ suggests based on an ancient Axelwolf statement, that "anyone can make 50K a year" bonus whoring --- LOL. That surely explains Axelwolf's standard of living. I need to borrow his Lambo one of these days.
You do realize that if you're dealing with non-corporate offshores, half of them have, as they say in business classrooms, interlocking directorates. So they are aware of who and what addresses are on what rosters of which sportsbooks. And just to be clear, if you dealing with an offshore, they can assign a label to you and -- unless you like venturing to Costa Rica to try to track down your funds while wearing Kevlar -- they can keep your money based on that label.
As far as the "legit" U.S. sportsbooks offering bonuses, I suggest everyone amped up for coordinated bonus whoring seriously consult a certain half of the Gambling with an Edge team as to the current issues some folks have had with "legit sportsbooks." I'm up to speed as to about a year ago, but I'm sure he has much in the way of more recent caveats.
Now I say this as someone who just pulled in a bevy of 100% bonuses in the last 30 days. What I'm telling you is that if what you are doing is an attempt at mega-coordinated family-and-friends bonus whoring, you place everyone's money at risk. But go ahead, you all are adults, however contrary the evidence.
This, by the way, is my last public service announcement at VCT. If you think mickey crimm and kewlJ have more experience in this than I do, well, you deserve whatever happens. Nothing like thinking you're a genius with what amounts to a family-and-friends bonus Ponzi scheme. You think people haven't been attempting this stuff for the last 25 years? Oh wait -- pardone -- the VCT "APs" are a cut above mere mortals. Forgot about that. And Axelwolf, God bless him. There's an exemplar for the ages.
I am embarrassed for you.
I dont get the controversy. Its easy money. I'm no sportsbetting savant, yet I've profitted slightly more than $28k "whoring" these legit US bonuses with an assist from just members of my family. It wasn't difficult either; but it sure was fun.
Context man, context. You indicated it was hard and that very few people could make money from sports betting blah, blah, blah. I was talking about someone with very little knowledge and understanding all while putting in a small amount of hours and effort without a large bankroll.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
That 50k would be added to whatever else one was doing for money. With more skill and some thinking outside the box, one could make much much more.
I dont know where you have been, but most APs have or have had friends and family getting them accounts for one thing or another, It has been going on for decades.
I do not think it's any different than hiring runners or whatever other kinds of things people hire others for in sports.
I honestly, think you're just mad you didn't get in on the big lucrative action and missed the boat with multi-accounting sports with huge advantages.
So now you want to claim you had/have a moral issue with it.
Come on bro, weren't you a tout, or didn't you work for one for a while? whatever the case, you attempted to recruit investors for sports with, suggested returns, etc etc, right? just naming it Integrity Sports doesn't make it honest with strong moral principles.
But for some reason, you think paying people for what they would never use or do in the first place is unethical.
FYI when some people say "Friends and family" It's just a nice way of saying they are getting Joe Blows to get them accounts. Heck, I dont think I have ever had a family member get me an online sports account.
There are numerous AP's who don't bet on sports or fuck around with online stuff(regulated or not). They understand it's a really good deal, but they are more than happy to take a flat fee or % and let you take advantage of the good deal. Perhaps they want you to get them a player's card in exchange.
Lambo, I know one AP that has one but I think that was a BTC Lambo.
I have had some nice sports cars over the years, and I have always loved Lambos, but I lost interest in that kinda crazy in my mid-30s.
Nowadays, I'm buying RVs, boats, electric bikes, and Cargo Vans and selling a sports truck, and a Mercedes. I have even been looking at some Tractors and Blackhoes. :eek: (No Tasha, I wasn't directing that at you, I meant backhoe)
I spent the last 3 Months traveling thousands of miles through Washington, Oregon, and California, and back through Washington again( I've said it many times. I, dislike the desert and Vegas is not my favorite place ) I was fishing lakes rivers streams, and creeks, going to beaches while looking at properties and putting offers in, and even buying many acres of waterfront land. I'm going back soon for another round to get more. I'm looking at some beachfront property, mainly because my wife loves the beach. I'll probably buy some mining claims as well.
I have not been putting in many AP hours for years now, and now I'm going to be super semi-retired (it's probably a bit early but, I'm not waiting until I'm in my 60's).
I am going to go live the dream I had since I was a teen and try to live my best life. No hate from me man, once I get settled, you and others are welcome to come and shoot,hunt, fish, ride Quads, raft/boat, pan/mine for gold & silver, etc.
I was just passing on what the experts say. You will find a lot of them earlier in this thread. According to them, getting money confiscated does happen and is a business expense. They also point out that you can get ripped off by the person whose account you are using. But even with "getting ripped off" factored in it's still highly lucrative to them.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
Redietz, the high tech kids have passed up you dinosaur sports handicappers.
Depending on a few factors, there are ways to avoid that.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimmThey also point out that you can get ripped off by the person whose account you are using.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
I just can't figure out why redietz's ass is always gaping. Somehow a bug always manages to fly up his butt.
Weird.
Opening Day NFL is here. Well that is if you don't count the two opening night games already played. :D
I am heavily invested in two different trends backed by more than a decade of results. Underdogs + point in the first two weeks and total unders the first week. Already 0-2 on both trends. :(
Having max bet each game at my 5 sports books AND placed additional cash bets around town at B & M books, it feels like maybe I over did it. Have too much invested. I am a little nervous. A complete reversal on both trends over the last decades could be costly. Fingers crossed.
Mike McCusker had a label for folks blindly betting historical trends. He referred to them in print as "trendsvestites."
While he was writing in the 80's and 90's, his prose and logic have held up remarkably well.
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Originally Posted by accountinquestion
Yeah. Weird, indeed. So weird that Gambling with an Edge has been focused on it and reporting on exactly what I mention in the above post.
As Hunter Thompson famously said many times, "When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro."
"Yesterday's weirdness is tomorrow's reason why"
.--- Hunter S. Thompson
Does McCusker have a "label" for people that don't pay their taxes? :confused:Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
I can tell you this much Red. No matter how I do today, I can and will meet all my financial obligations, and you won't hear any weird explanations that make sense to no one.
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Originally Posted by kewlJDoes McCusker have a "label" for people that don't pay their taxes? :confused:Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
I can tell you this much Red. No matter how I do today, I can and will meet all my financial obligations, and you won't hear any weird explanations that make sense to no one.
If you're referring to me -- LOL -- my credit rating is undoubtedly higher than yours. Probably much higher. Tell you what, I'll spot you 30 points and bet dinner on it. Oh wait, then we'd all know kewlJ's actual name. Cannot do that, can we? He's an AP. A trendsvestite AP, but an AP nonetheless.
These trendsvestites -- so sensitive. How are your trends plays doing today thus far?
KJ does have a point: how can we overllook the failure to pay property taxes?
How can we overlook Robert Singer filing chapter seven bankruptcy?
I'm sure there are "good reasons" for it, but regardless the action leaves a bit of a stigma.
It also provides fodder for personal attacks.
Funny stuff. Since youre stuck in the mid nineties, you forgot to mention how I was arrested for fighting in Turkmenistan and had to spend 4 days in one of the roughest shithole jails in the world.Quote:
Originally Posted by MisterV
Worked out well for me though :) What type car are YOU driving today? How wonderful does kew's life appear? How long YOU been happily married? How many houses have YOU bought for your children? Who has the resources to travel and do what WE do, among the little people? It's king of sickening to a bunch of gambling miscreants (especially the queer ones) isn't it....
I'm watching Tom Brady's first ever broadcasting career game.
Get some rest V.
At least REDietz owns property on which to pay tax. MDawg lives rent free in UNKewlJ's head, when UNKewlJ isn't dwelling rent free in the Vegas tunnels.
https://i.imgur.com/YO1BJY2m.jpg
I'm traveling (been traveling pretty consistently this entire year) and offered a simple wager to UNKewlJ to back it up. Predictably, he scurried away like the rat that he is. Whenever he has claimed to be somewhere other than the tunnels, he has been unable to provide anything whatsoever to back it up, not even a pic of a surfboard for pay, or of a CA beach, or a back East pic that passes any sort of muster. You can't get far when you're broke and homeless.
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Originally Posted by AxelWolf
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Originally Posted by Blackhole
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Originally Posted by MDawg
You asked, I'll answer.Quote:
Originally Posted by Rob.Singer
I am driving my '82 Volvo 244 Turbo to Chinook Winds after the game today: I rebuilt / restored and maintain it.
Ask Kew how he enjoys his life, I have zero clue on that one.
I'm on my second marriage:got hitched in '05 and we are getting along fine; I still get along well with my first wife.
I let my son live rent free in the house he grew up in: being "financially comfortable" I own it free and clear: he pays property taxes on it; the wife and I own and live in another home not too far away.
As for resources: My net worth is "north of one million..:" Up to you to speculate HOW far north as I ain't sayin;
I've little interest in travel as I am as happy as a clam here in the Pac NW; I "explore" and "visit" the world via the internet.
As always, thanks for asking, and enjoy the coming NFL season!
In addition to Rob's bitterness at any AP, playing and winning with an advantage, apparently our James Bond-esque, Rob, has some sort of school girl crush on Tom Brady. It was one thing when Brady was a player. Lots of guys admire sports superstar type players. But now Rob's crush is just an announcer. And one with a feminine, whiney voice, that you guys talk about. Maybe THAT is the attraction, eh Rob? :DQuote:
Originally Posted by Rob.Singer
Biggest favorite if the day, Cincinnati (-7.5), lost out right at home. This means a lot of those survivor pools and contests picks are dead on week 1. ;)
Also not crazy about this new kickoff rule. It makes the default starting position the 30 yard line. Used to be 20, then 25 and now 30. Should bump up scoring.
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Originally Posted by MDawgAxelWolf already publicly and privately stated that he debunked all of UNKewlJ's fraudulent sports bets claims.
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Originally Posted by MDawg
I'd bet 80% of my net value that mister v made more in life than singer. Possibly more but I'm too old to go broke.Quote:
Originally Posted by Rob.SingerFunny stuff. Since youre stuck in the mid nineties, you forgot to mention how I was arrested for fighting in Turkmenistan and had to spend 4 days in one of the roughest shithole jails in the world.Quote:
Originally Posted by MisterV
Worked out well for me though :) What type car are YOU driving today? How wonderful does kew's life appear? How long YOU been happily married? How many houses have YOU bought for your children? Who has the resources to travel and do what WE do, among the little people? It's king of sickening to a bunch of gambling miscreants (especially the queer ones) isn't it....
I'm watching Tom Brady's first ever broadcasting career game.
Get some rest V.
The fact that you felt compelled to discuss it further makes it curiously interesting.Quote:
Originally Posted by MisterVYou asked, I'll answer.Quote:
Originally Posted by Rob.Singer
I am driving my '82 Volvo 244 Turbo to Chinook Winds after the game today: I rebuilt / restored and maintain it.
Ask Kew how he enjoys his life, I have zero clue on that one.
I'm on my second marriage:got hitched in '05 and we are getting along fine; I still get along well with my first wife.
I let my son live rent free in the house he grew up in: being "financially comfortable" I own it free and clear: he pays property taxes on it; the wife and I own and live in another home not too far away.
As for resources: My net worth is "north of one million..:" Up to you to speculate HOW far north as I ain't sayin;
I've little interest in travel as I am as happy as a clam here in the Pac NW; I "explore" and "visit" the world via the internet.
As always, thanks for asking, and enjoy the coming NFL season!
Anonymous computer warriors like yourself, AQ, jbjb etc. always build themselves up because they expect no one will look into their suspect lives. This "I'm an AP and I must PROTECT myself" is simply a cover for pathetic backgrounds.
The difference is, even when I do find out about any real names on these forums, I don't have the slightest interest in discovering anything other than the mostly dishonest personalities they present themselves as. Its neither here nor there to me, while to those who feel threatened by the accomplishments of people who are truly superior to them, discovering some imperfections is akin to a coping mechanism.
I already know no one here or on any other gaming-related forum has had anywhere near the interesting life I've had, few have as complete and decent a family, and the career & video poker successes I've attained would be very, very tough to match. As such, the little people serve no more or no less a purpose than as my personal entertainment.
In short....I think you get it--even though you don't want to. And you're not alone.
That we know.
I've said it many times. I'm not a pro AP. I have a small business. I haven't bragged about AP prowess outside of showing a picture of actual real life US american money, baby. Not some funny pic of fake $$. ( although you did seemingly buy a lot of fake $$) I'm not taking well known stories and inserting myself into them to try and make up for a life of degenerate.Quote:
Originally Posted by Rob.SingerThe fact that you felt compelled to discuss it further makes it curiously interesting.Quote:
Originally Posted by MisterVYou asked, I'll answer.Quote:
Originally Posted by Rob.Singer
I am driving my '82 Volvo 244 Turbo to Chinook Winds after the game today: I rebuilt / restored and maintain it.
Ask Kew how he enjoys his life, I have zero clue on that one.
I'm on my second marriage:got hitched in '05 and we are getting along fine; I still get along well with my first wife.
I let my son live rent free in the house he grew up in: being "financially comfortable" I own it free and clear: he pays property taxes on it; the wife and I own and live in another home not too far away.
As for resources: My net worth is "north of one million..:" Up to you to speculate HOW far north as I ain't sayin;
I've little interest in travel as I am as happy as a clam here in the Pac NW; I "explore" and "visit" the world via the internet.
As always, thanks for asking, and enjoy the coming NFL season!
Anonymous computer warriors like yourself, AQ, jbjb etc. always build themselves up because they expect no one will look into their suspect lives. This "I'm an AP and I must PROTECT myself" is simply a cover for pathetic backgrounds.
The difference is, even when I do find out about any real names on these forums, I don't have the slightest interest in discovering anything other than the mostly dishonest personalities they present themselves as. Its neither here nor there to me, while to those who feel threatened by the accomplishments of people who are truly superior to them, discovering some imperfections is akin to a coping mechanism.
I already know no one here or on any other gaming-related forum has had anywhere near the interesting life I've had, few have as complete and decent a family, and the career & video poker successes I've attained would be very, very tough to match. As such, the little people serve no more or no less a purpose than as my personal entertainment.
In short....I think you get it--even though you don't want to. And you're not alone.
That we know.
I used to question whether Singer was serious but you realize yes - he is. He so wishes the above to be true. I've known my share of successful people and one thing they have in common is they don't need to pump their superiority over others. I have had faker friends. Fake it til you make it. Tell me something is easy then they say they can't do it within an hour and want to waste my time explaining why. But they're always quick to pump themselves up. Just like Singer.
Singer isn't a sharp guy. He doesn't get how transparent his shtick is. It would be actually sad if i didn't find him to be such a nasty person underneath it all. Anyway.. hope you have a nice week, Rob.
I am sure you asked, knowing they were not winning yesterday as in previous years. That is fine, I will answer any way.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
On the under totals for 1week only of season, I will say I am 7-8 with 1 game remaining. Although at 2 sportsbooks I am 7-7-1 with one game remaining. the game in question was the opening game Thursday night won 27-20 by KC. Had totals of 46.5 at most books, but 47 at 2 B & M books.
On the first 2 weeks underdogs plus points, what I call the Half Smoke play, I will say I am 6-8-1 with one game this week and a second weeks games remaining. But again, there was one game Denver +6 that was a push at most of my books, but a loss at 3 (I think, where the line was 5 or 5.5.
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Now 2 additional things I want to mention. 1) overtime games like last night's Detroit/Rams game. When you are getting 3.5 points or more (but less than 6), you are a big favorite to win. If your team wins the coin toss, probably a 90% favorite to win. If your team scores on opening possession, either field goal or TD you will win, and if your team doesn't score, the opponent only needs a FG to end the game, so if they get to the 20 or inside, they will just kick the field goal.
Now if you lose the coin flip, and the opponent doesn't score a td on first possession, you are back to the same scenario. The only real way you can lose is if the opponent wins the coin flip and drives the field and scores a TD ending the game....which happened last night. Yes there are other possibilities like a pick 6 or punt return, but for the most part, coin flip is huge if you are getting 3.5 points.
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Now Red, you are calling these two plays betting trends and dismissing them. Shackleford has data dating something like 17 years showing betting all underdog plus points, in ALL NFL games shows a very small win. Something like 1% or less. Would you call that a trend? 17 years all games? that is thousands of games? What about the data spanning decades that shows 3.5 and 7.5 key numbers. Is that a trend?
These things are data analytics spanning decades and thousands of games. It just so happens the first two weeks, which is part of that same larger underdog plus points data, shows a bigger return in the first two weeks. And I think everyone can figure out why.
Red, you just dismiss the analytic as "trends". You are like so many old dudes, that dismiss something they don't know. Ever heard there is more than one way to skin a cat Red? Anyway, I hope you do well, even though you are openly rooting against others who do things you don't know or understand. I hope you do well enough to pay your taxes this year. :cool:
You know, kewlJ, in whatever fictional LaLa land in which you reside, I understand paying this bill or that may mean something. In the United States, however, your credit rating is pretty much a full-scale analysis of your finances. Having said that, I'll bet my net worth that my credit score is higher than yours. LOL. Can't wait to hear the "card counter" pithy comeback to that challenge.
As far as trends go, have you ever actually read a couple issues of Playbook, now or from 25 years ago? Or picked up a Playbook magazine? Or read anything regarding Billy Walters? There have been programs running 24/7 for 20+ years analyzing every aspect of every sport.
You gotta realize that people with 100 times the money Shackleford has and significantly more math abilities and programming abilities have been applying themselves to beating sports betting for the last 40 years. And, for the most part, I've outperformed them in any actual tracking of ATS records. People have been doing what you're touting for decades, with more brains and resources devoted to the endeavor than anything you could possibly muster.
That's reality, dude. People can get real money down on sports betting, unlike patty cake blackjack betting. The best and the brightest, with serious financial resources, have been applying themselves to the task for a long, long time.
And I have to add this -- LOL. You would think, according to kewlJ, that people like Billy Walters would be recruiting Shackleford. Doesn't happen. Gee, I wonder why.
Red, you addressed nothing. As usual. :rolleyes:
And then followed up with more of your "credit rating" pissing contest bullshit. And if it is not credit rating, it is IQ or Sat scores from 50 years ago. As soon as one of you retards goes to this nonsense, it is game over.
I don't give a shit about Billy Watters or McCusker or anyone else that you want to throw out there. I also am not trying to be a "professional sports bettor" (title of this thread). I am an AP. Advantage player. Right now and for the last year I am doing some sports betting at an advantage due to the bonuses I get. I don't need to win. I need to be close to even. And I am doing that and have been for a year. Sports betting is only part of my advantage play right now.
The 1st 2 weeks play looks strong to me, even with this first weeks results at 6-8-1 so far. Last year both weeks went 10-6. I am sorry if you or Billy Watters or McCusker or anyone else you are speaking for, without their permission disagrees.
LOL. So what does when I paid a particular tax have to with anything? You think that reflects badly on someone? Well, maybe, but not as badly as some moron coming back from the dead and assuming people should listen to him. I mean, c'mon. You're a joke. Nobody buys your story anymore. What are you even doing posting about gambling?Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
Do you understand that you know nothing? That everything you reference in terms of "17-year ATS records" is available and known to every person who spends a couple hours on this stuff?
See, you're falling right into what MDawg described. Some superficial bullshit trivia you read becomes your basis for knowing what you're allegedly talking about. And you expect people to buy your narrative.
You have some lunatic sense that you know what you're talking about, that you are privy to info that's rare, and that you have some workable idea of how to apply what you know or what the applications should be. You are like some third-grader arguing with college profs.
And MDawg, feel free to quote me. Hell, use my name and address and say, "This guy, a public gambling professional for 45 years, has this to say about the inestimable online kewlJ." Give folks my email. Anybody wants to talk kewlJ, I'm available for kewlJ discussions, birthday parties, and bar mitzvahs.
I’m with RED on trends but unders and underdogs did in general had a slight advantage because of one reason. And that reason ties into overall sports betting in general and it involved the line.
Books have always based their numbers on getting as close to equal wagering as possible but they know in reality that’s not possible and there will be public bias. And that bias in general comes back to the betting public liking overs and favorites. And in many cases an extra point was added to the numbers to make up for that. If they are way off the sharps will let them know quickly. And that advantage for the Under/Underdog bettor has a slight advantage over time. It didn’t make Shack look any smarter, people like RED and I, along with every long term gambler knew it.
But I also wonder how much bias is left because of the influx of new bettors and the focus on props and parlays. The books have a huge edge over these idiots buying (not betting) $20 6 leg lottery tickets. Their focus is on the props because the suckers almost always bet the over on any offensive prop. They can inflate a guy 5 yards and the suckers will take it. A investigation into these numbers would show a higher occurrence of unders I believe and I’m sure there are a few out there exploiting them. The public isn’t betting individual games like they did and honestly if you do and win with many of the new books, they will cut you off or limit you to next to nothing. Whereas on the lines there is just too much “smart” money out there today that in my mind the line bias just isn’t there as much on totals.
That was a long way of saying I don’t see much, if any, of an advantage to betting every game like you are doing KJ on an old trend. It’s certainly your choice but it’s right up there with flipping a coin in 2024 to me. But it’s a good as anything if you are just churning bonuses, but that’s another topic.
In general I agree that trends mean nothing Boz. Take roulette. The last six spin being black, doesn't mean the next spin will be black any more than it means Red is due. It just means nothing.Quote:
Originally Posted by The Boz
That said, there is more to this than just trends. There are reasons why this makes sense. Starting with and very generally, the public bets favorites...in every sport. And the lines usually move that way. Therefore the underdogs are over-valued, even if slightly.
Second, this play, the Half smoke play is for the first 2 weeks of the season only. What are these lines even based on? What teams did last season? What players, some on new teams did last season? starting players don't even play preseason anymore, so it isn't based on what they have shown. And that is part of it right there. Defenses are generally ahead of offenses early in the year. It takes a while for offenses to jell, especially not having played preseason. And that means lower scoring games AND lower scoring games are more conducive to closer games where points come into play more often.
The Patriots game is a perfect example. If both these teams are what people expect, you are less likely to have that outcome....a 7+ point dog win like that. Cincinatti's offense clearly hadn't jelled yet. And why? In part because they hadn't even played together in the preseason. Preseason is a joke now. I don't know why they even play those games?
Now let me say this. I had more money than I was comfortable with on yesterday's games. A little over 60k over 10 sports books, 5 online and 5 B & M. 60 k is the total amount I have made grinding away at the sports book bonuses for a year. So, it doesn't make sense to have everything I have worked for a year riding on this weekend like I did. I over did it for my comfort level.
And I am probably going to do the same next week. :rolleyes: It is an extension of the underdog plays which call it trends if you want, but decades of data have shown to be at least break even, if not slightly +EV. And with the bonuses, that is all I am after. If I can break even or close to it, I am going to win 60-80k (over the year) with the bonuses I get. Maybe that won't last forever. Maybe they will cut me off or cut down my bonuses to where it isn't profitable. One online book did. But until they all do, this is a +EV play and I am an advantage player. :cool:
add on: and guess what? There is another AP in this town, successful that everyone knows, including many of you, Axelwolf, sometimes on this forum, although not too much recently, that is doing exactly what I am doing these first two weeks. I think he said he bet $2200 on every underdog and points. And I am sure is disappointed as well as this first week ends. BUT he too knows it is +EV and I'll bet he bets again the second week.
.
I was thinking about the pre-season
how could they even make a line on those games___________?_____________I don't even believe the teams really care much about winning those games
the best players if they play only play part of the games
wouldn't the dogs have to have an edge since they're getting points__________?
not much interest in betting the pre-season and I don't recall every reading anything about it
I just tracked this year's pre-season and the dogs went 31-17
I'm well aware that doesn't prove anything - but still - pretty interesting
.
The people worth 100x Shackleford are not going to be playing tournaments where the time involved is high and the expectation is a few hundred. So I cant begin to comprehend how you know your standing relative to them.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
using covers.com I went back and tracked just under 300 pre-season gamesQuote:
Originally Posted by Half Smoke
covers doesn't have this data for every year but I was able to get 6 seasons
I tracked the dogs going 170-119_________winning at 58.8%___________about a 12% r.o.i.
.
Rob Singer's school girl crush, Tom Brady, has a commercial for tortitos where he is a male flight attendant.
Seems most appropriate. :rolleyes:
I am not an AP, Robert, as you well know.Quote:
Originally Posted by Rob.Singer
I retired after a forty year law practice.
Any lawyer who isn't financially comfortable at the time they retire either gave it all to charity, blew it on booze, broads and coke, or simply wasn't good at the job.
Whether you believe me is or little importance: you asked, I answered.
Financial Adviser and syndicated talk show host, Dave Ramsey, does not have a credit rating. He doesn’t buy anything on credit. Don’t even have credit cards (he uses debit cards).Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
I once heard him ridicule a guy that bragged he had an 830 credit rating. Ramsey doesn’t like paying interest, period.
Redietz, would you like to bet your net worth that you are more wealthy than Ramsey?
Here is the thing about our great sports better Redietz. I never see him share a wager or pick before the event. After the fact he will tell you he bet this or that. Or maybe at the end if college football season when there are a handful of teams that have a shot, he will tell you he made a futures bet on one of the teams 4 months ago. Or of course he will tell you about some contest he won 40 years ago. But never any picks current before the event.
Ah, but MrV is the epitome of all that glitters is not gold.Quote:
Originally Posted by accountinquestion
Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
Right. Facts from the back-from-the-dead dude. Except you should probably check with monet or regnis as to whether I've shared anything prior to an event. LOL.
You have kewlJ, some anonymous blathering freakazoid who never actually has demonstrated anything except a need to type and "be an AP." Then you have someone who has been publicly monitored for decades and been in public competitions for decades with ATS records in full view of tens of thousands of people. Someone whose record was printed every week in Playbook in a nationally distributed magazine on newsstands around the country for decades. Someone whose record was monitored and dissected by multiple sports service monitors for decades (Handicappers' Report Card, The Absolute Truth, Tipsters or Gypsters, the Satellite Cable Handicap, and many others).
But of course the KewlJ is correct. He always is. The anonymous gay guy on the internet, verified by Santa Claus, the Easter Bunny, and various famous LV lawyers who, like APs, never actually verify anything.
You know, you gotta ask yourself, why has kewlJ pivoted to sports betting after years of claiming to be a blackjack guru? Axelwolf even called him out for some of his bullshit sports bonus reporting. List the obvious reasons to yourself and come to your own conclusions.
I am not going to waste a lot of time responding to Redietz who obviously has a bug up his ass about ANYONE winning at sports betting using things like bonuses and analytics of past data. Red wants the narrative to be that he is the ONLY person that can win at sports betting, when mickey has proven there are many people, some well known with podcasts and stuff, some not. And they are all doing many different things and angles. So happens the bonus whoring that I am doing and have been for a year is one of the simplest and better known methods.
Lets get something straight about this Axelwolf thing right now. Although it won't stop you and others from repeating your lie. Axelwolf near as I can tell, is doing at least some of the exact same stuff that I am doing. Hitting this first 2 weeks angle hard, but in general taking advantage of the bonuses at so many different sports books. What axel was surprised at with me last fall was some of the really good bonuses and low rollovers that I was able to get.
And there is a reason I was able to get those really good terms. I negotiated the best terms I could at two sportsbooks where I had played for a number of years recreationally and established myself as a losing player. I am not particularly proud that I was a recreationally losing sports bettor, but it came in damn handy when I started utilizing the bonuses. So that is why Axelwolf wasn't familiar with getting better bonuses. I was an established losing player and established losing player get better terms, just like in the B & M casinos. So Red, just stop with the lying and making shit up like the other trolls and haters.
And finally, I haven't "pivoted" to sports betting away from blackjack. This year I am going to have 5 streams of advantage play income from 5 different advantage plays. 3 of them, over 40k, and traditional blackjack play and card counting is one of them. I play blackjack less and differently than I did for my first decade here in Vegas, but still playing and generating EV and win.
It is funny, for years, several AP's including one of my AP friends, a pretty well known guy, criticized me for being a one trick pony type AP, with 80% of my income from blackjack and card counting. In recent years I have branched out a bit, not having all my eggs in one basket, and the internet morons criticize that as well. Tough titties!
Why should he tell anyone his bets? Are you one to talk?Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
Kewl was a 1 stream AP until people starting to say he was 0 streams. Now he is 5. God bless that guy.
If anyone has written about it publicly, you can bet KJ has done it.
I don't post what I am betting with sports? This past weekend I shared exactly what I bet. Almost 60k worth ( losing almost 11k). Wtf? You fuckers just say anything.Quote:
Originally Posted by pinchingyourballsWhy should he tell anyone his bets? Are you one to talk?Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
Now if you are talking blackjack, what do you want....me to live post from the table? Hey I'm at XXX casino, the count us +5 and I am max betting $500.
Actually, I have come pretty damn close to that in sharing my bet spread ect.
Absolutely!! You know what that is called? Learning from other players and incorporating it into your own play. I try to do that often.Quote:
Originally Posted by smurgerburger
Pay them no mind KJ:they're just jealous.
Quote:
Originally Posted by MisterV
Exactly.Quote:
Originally Posted by MDawgQuote:
Originally Posted by MisterV
Which is not to say that I disbelieve his claims...
[QUOTE=redietz;183345]After all that winning you have done for 45 years as a self proclaimed world class handicapper you should have a massive bankroll. Easily 7 figures. Why do you need a good credit rating? You should be paying cash for everything? Druff is still waiting on you to show your credit rating to him? Whats it been? Six months? How much longer do you think it will take?Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
Running around cashing tickets today. Here is a nice sports book. Not allowed to say where though. (That should get some casino folks boiling). :D
I waited until I had exited to post it though. :cool:
Good thing pic is blurry.Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
Running around cashing tickets today. Here is a nice sports book. Not allowed to say where though. (That should get some casino folks boiling). :D
I waited until I had exited to post it though. :cool:
Sorry about that. Anyone in Vegas or that visits Vegas regularly should know it thoughQuote:
Originally Posted by accountinquestionGood thing pic is blurry.Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
Running around cashing tickets today. Here is a nice sports book. Not allowed to say where though. (That should get some casino folks boiling). :D
I waited until I had exited to post it though. :cool:
[QUOTE=mickeycrimm;183376]All those damn tournaments. You only scale up piddly amounts. Sure soft field but it is all silly. ATS this ATS that. Reall gamblers not ever even caring about ATS record muchQuote:
Originally Posted by redietzAfter all that winning you have done for 45 years as a self proclaimed world class handicapper you should have a massive bankroll. Easily 7 figures. Why do you need a good credit rating? You should be paying cash for everything? Druff is still waiting on you to show your credit rating to him? Whats it been? Six months? How much longer do you think it will take?Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
Does this help? Lol.
Quote:
Originally Posted by MDawgAxelWolf already publicly and privately stated that he debunked all of UNKewlJ's fraudulent sports bets claims.
Quote:
Originally Posted by MDawg
Ever notice how this guy, Mdawg, repeats and repeats himself exactly like an Alzheimer patient. Even quoting himself to just repeat, repeat, repeat.
Dementia anyone? Lol