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Originally Posted by kewlJ
Intentionally blurry, right tewly?Quote:
Originally Posted by accountinquestion
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Originally Posted by kewlJ
Intentionally blurry, right tewly?Quote:
Originally Posted by accountinquestion
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Originally Posted by MDawg
Ah, Nietzsche...Quote:
Originally Posted by MDawgQuote:
Originally Posted by MDawg
I recall reading "Thus Spoke Zarathustra" while camping high up in the Colorado rockies, high on codeine for a back injury: powerful times.
But not as powerful a time as when I read Camus' "The Stranger" twice: first while high on codeine for two broken ankles in college, and again while flying cross country for my mother's funeral.
"The Stranger" begins: "Mother died today...".
Formative years.
Philosophy has been dead, for a number of years. In other words, you continue to insert meaning where no such meaning exists. It's about numerals, and their operators.Quote:
Originally Posted by MisterVAh, Nietzsche...Quote:
Originally Posted by MDawgQuote:
Originally Posted by MDawg
I recall reading "Thus Spoke Zarathustra" while camping high up in the Colorado rockies, high on codeine for a back injury: powerful times.
But not as powerful a time as when I read Camus' "The Stranger" twice: first while high on codeine for two broken ankles in college, and again while flying cross country for my mother's funeral.
"The Stranger" begins: "Mother died today...".
Formative years.
The reason that the summit of your online experience, over many years, was to briefly "chat it up", with male nurse, and pharmacist, LarryS, on a forum that never got off the ground.
The big fat man sleeping in the chair should have knocked the Obama phone out of your hand for taking such an unflattering picture of him. For someone so paranoid about his privacy, you sure aren't good at respecting other people's.Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
Running around cashing tickets today. Here is a nice sports book. Not allowed to say where though. (That should get some casino folks boiling). :D
I waited until I had exited to post it though. :cool:
Spirit Mrn. casino in Oregon build a big, beauiful sports book, I think it's affiilated with MGM.
Sadly, every time I visit it is empty, or nearly so.
I guess all the bettors bet online?
What is South Point Alex?Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
That was a tough one because I've only ever been there once. Not exactly a good location for tourists and their offers were pathetic so probably won't go back either.
Remember that UNKewLyingJ also claimed that his backrooming fable occurred in SouthPoint (which he later changed to some "casino south of the strip."
Of course this story changes frequently, including that he claimed he no longer even goes to South Point.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Why so much action "south of the Strip" when he claims to live at Panorama Towers on Dean Martin Dr.? Why go all the way to South Point just to lay some sports bets, to a casino he claimed he no longer even plays at?Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
Reason being of course, that no sports bets are being laid at all, and it is all a continuing web of UNKewl lies. The only action going on with UnKewlJ is male prostitution, and if he does that at South Point it is because he's already been run out of every place on the Strip.
I am surprised he is even able to carry on his trade at South Point. By now, I'd think he'd be mostly plying his trade in Northeast Vegas, closer to where he hangs out, when he is not in the tunnels.
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Originally Posted by MDawg
In his haste to troll and tell more lies, what Mdawg did with this simple question is reveal that he knows nothing about sports betting (the topic he is trolling). The casino in question, is one of the top sportsbooks in Las Vegas for a reason. (several actually). Any one laying bets at multiple Vegas sportsbooks, is almost assuredly visiting this sports book as one of them.Quote:
Originally Posted by MDawg
But again, this is just Mdawg proving yet again, he has no idea what he is talking about. He is one of those guys that just talks, or in his case trolls.
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Originally Posted by Ozzy
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Originally Posted by MDawg
South Point is old school. If kewlJ is counting cards there, he may well have a plot with his name on it about 12 miles south of South Point.
South Point is, to my knowledge, the only current large casino with a race book actually physically separate from the sports book. Some folks I know have some connections with management there, and the inestimable and legendary Jimmy Vacarro runs the book (still). He's from the Pittsburgh area.
I like the fact South Point occasionally has Sheena Easton in their showroom. She was my teenage obsession.
A couple of years ago, when Alan didn't quite get the old school lingo for chips/checks, Mr. Vacarro and his staff were kind enough to publicly verify that I knew what I was talking about. I appreciated them taking the time. I will always visit South Point whenever I'm in LV, out of respect and out of nostalgia for the way things used to be and should be. If KewlJ counts cards there, he should formally have his head examined. Lawsuits don't do you much good post mortem.
Only small units glorify thugs.
Cracks me up how some of these guys like Red seem to think it is the 1970's or 1980's. Check your calendar Red. ;) No casino including South Point is burying anyone in the desert for counting cards. This isn't the days of the Mob run casinos in Vegas. Steve Wynn lost his license over a sexual abuse charge for god sakes.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
Just so happens South Point was in my regular blackjack rotation for a decade. And for good reason. You remember the tracking a second table that I revealed a few years ago, that all the non-card counting morons on this forum threw a fit about? South Point happened to be one of the better locations for doing that. Many tables in a row in very close proximity.
Now these days that location is not in my regular rotation. And that is all I am going to say about that. :rolleyes:
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Originally Posted by kewlJCracks me up how some of these guys like Red seem to think it is the 1970's or 1980's. Check your calendar Red. ;) No casino including South Point is burying anyone in the desert for counting cards. This isn't the days of the Mob run casinos in Vegas. Steve Wynn lost his license over a sexual abuse charge for god sakes.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
Just so happens South Point was in my regular blackjack rotation for a decade. And for good reason. You remember the tracking a second table that I revealed a few years ago, that all the non-card counting morons on this forum threw a fit about? South Point happened to be one of the better locations for doing that. Many tables in a row in very close proximity.
Now these days that location is not in my regular rotation. And that is all I am going to say about that. :rolleyes:
What you don't know is absolutely stunning.
I'm surprised, with all of your swashbuckling bravado, that you didn't agree to meet me for brunch in the South Point buffet the times I've publicly camped out there for meet-and-greets.
It is strange to have someone who lives with so much fear bragging about not being fearful. I recommend therapy.
And in case you need help with counting, the number of people who buy your narrative on this forum has dwindled to what appears to be zero. Maybe Tasha believes you on a good day.
And that of course is the whole point. No one around here is more desperate to be believedQuote:
Originally Posted by redietz
all the while feigning indifference.Quote:
Originally Posted by AccountInQuestion
As R.Singer has saidQuote:
Originally Posted by Rob.Singer
And that of course is where the mental illness comes in. That anyone could think that it's not so obvious what UNKewLyingJ is trying to pull.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
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Originally Posted by accountinquestion
It was tracking 3 tables. Now you're changing the story yet again.Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJCracks me up how some of these guys like Red seem to think it is the 1970's or 1980's. Check your calendar Red. ;) No casino including South Point is burying anyone in the desert for counting cards. This isn't the days of the Mob run casinos in Vegas. Steve Wynn lost his license over a sexual abuse charge for god sakes.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
Just so happens South Point was in my regular blackjack rotation for a decade. And for good reason. You remember the tracking a second table that I revealed a few years ago, that all the non-card counting morons on this forum threw a fit about? South Point happened to be one of the better locations for doing that. Many tables in a row in very close proximity.
Now these days that location is not in my regular rotation. And that is all I am going to say about that. :rolleyes:
Meet and greets ... all those people just waiting for the briefest of meetings with Mr big time.
I love you redietz.
No it wasn't tracking 3 tables. You are either mistaken or intentionally lying. 98% of the time tracking a second table involved tracking one other neighboring table than you were playing. I did say I had tracked 2 other tables but the times I did so had to be just right. Almost perfect, with two neighboring tables starting a new shuffle at exactly the same time while occupying the middle seat with an unobstructed view of each table. And even then, I could track both tables for only a couple rounds at best, at which point you would drop the least favorable table and continue tracking the better second opportunity. The times I tracked more than one second table I could count on my fingers....thats how infrequent it was. So just stop lying.Quote:
Originally Posted by accountinquestion
No I'm not lying. I had an issue when you claimed 3 tables.Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJNo it wasn't tracking 3 tables. You are either mistaken or intentionally lying. 98% of the time tracking a second table involved tracking one other neighboring table than you were playing. I did say I had tracked 2 other tables but the times I did so had to be just right. Almost perfect, with two neighboring tables starting a new shuffle at exactly the same time while occupying the middle seat with an unobstructed view of each table. And even then, I could track both tables for only a couple rounds at best, at which point you would drop the least favorable table and continue tracking the better second opportunity. The times I tracked more than one second table I could count on my fingers....thats how infrequent it was. So just stop lying.Quote:
Originally Posted by accountinquestion
You lie so much you can't keep up. You lie so much it doesn't begin to be worth my time to show it. You have never met anyone on these forums after being around 15ish years. People just pity and don't worry about correcting you.
Red, what do you think the number of people that believe you and your story are now after everything mickey has exposed? :confused:Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
As for me, I don't care who beleives me or not. I really don't. I know Mdawg and Singer and some of the other trolls (I guess you are in that group) think I care, but I dont. If I cared, I would have stopped posting long ago. I am for the most part a card counter. There are no other professional level card counters that participate on this forum, except zenking. Just a bunch of nay-sayers who want to say "oh that can't be" when they have no clue about the topic.
The tracking a second table is a perfect example. I shared that technique and all the naysayers clueless about card counting jumped up and down. But when that discussion made it's way to other forums, and it did, several known professional card counters, past and present, chimed in saying they had done some version of tracking a second table, including Don Schlesinger, Richard Munchkin and a couple players that have asked me not to even post their names or handles on this forum. Only the trolls and naysayers here flew into a fit.
And that is why I have stopped sharing most anything I do with blackjack on this forum. Just this week, I was going to make a post about hitting all-time high (ATH). Probably few people know this but a blackjack player, even professional, is at his ATH, less than 5% of the time. Because of the extreme variance and long swings associated with blackjack card counting a player can and will fall back significantly after hitting ATH and it can be weeks or months until he gets back to a new ATH.
BUT, there can also be a period where he hits a number of ATH's in a row or within a short span. I mean if you are at an ATH and win the next day, you are at a new ATH. I had such a period in the past few weeks, hitting new ATHs more than half a dozen times within a short time. I was going to share that and how ATHs work, but then decided, why bother? It is a forum of complete boobs, buffoons and trolls, who know nothing about card counting professionally.
That is what this forum is and continues to be, and why so few real players, (not just blackjack) participate here.
But I will parrot what YOU said redietz. What YOU don't know is stunning to me. It just don't jive for a guy who claims to spend 100 days a year in Vegas for 40 years. :rolleyes:
Tracking a 2nd table .. who cares. It seems reasonable some people could do that but then you got bulkshit greedy and bumped it up a notch. That's when I gave you a hard time. I just couldn't imagine... and the attempts to imagine were LOLable thoughts.
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Originally Posted by kewlJRed, what do you think the number of people that believe you and your story are now after everything mickey has exposed? :confused:Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
As for me, I don't care who beleives me or not. I really don't. I know Mdawg and Singer and some of the other trolls (I guess you are in that group) think I care, but I dont. If I cared, I would have stopped posting long ago. I am for the most part a card counter. There are no other professional level card counters that participate on this forum, except zenking. Just a bunch of nay-sayers who want to say "oh that can't be" when they have no clue about the topic.
The tracking a second table is a perfect example. I shared that technique and all the naysayers clueless about card counting jumped up and down. But when that discussion made it's way to other forums, and it did, several known professional card counters, past and present, chimed in saying they had done some version of tracking a second table, including Don Schlesinger, Richard Munchkin and a couple players that have asked me not to even post their names or handles on this forum. Only the trolls and naysayers here flew into a fit.
And that is why I have stopped sharing most anything I do with blackjack on this forum. Just this week, I was going to make a post about hitting all-time high (ATH). Probably few people know this but a blackjack player, even professional, is at his ATH, less than 5% of the time. Because of the extreme variance and long swings associated with blackjack card counting a player can and will fall back significantly after hitting ATH and it can be weeks or months until he gets back to a new ATH.
BUT, there can also be a period where he hits a number of ATH's in a row or within a short span. I mean if you are at an ATH and win the next day, you are at a new ATH. I had such a period in the past few weeks, hitting new ATHs more than half a dozen times within a short time. I was going to share that and how ATHs work, but then decided, why bother? It is a forum of complete boobs, buffoons and trolls, who know nothing about card counting professionally.
That is what this forum is and continues to be, and why so few real players, (not just blackjack) participate here.
But I will parrot what YOU said redietz. What YOU don't know is stunning to me. It just don't jive for a guy who claims to spend 100 days a year in Vegas for 40 years. :rolleyes:
The difference is I have a 40-year documented record under my real name. In national publications. In national public competitions. You are some anonymous twit making shit up on forums. Why you do this, I have no idea. Either you're trolling for cash customers (which is the only real reason to keep hammering the gay thing all the time), or you need mental help, or both.
And finally, I must admit to (currently) not being the best handicapper in the household. Karen knocked out a 6-0 game, 21-0 unit day to lead LineMasters after two weeks.
Why do I feel like James Carville?
You LOOK like James Carville....I'll give ya that. :DQuote:
Originally Posted by redietz
Red, I did not come to this forum "hammering the gay thing". I didn't even bring it up. Axelwolf did, in an attempt at a joke.
The fact that I am gay is irrelevant to me as far as any gambling forum. It isn't me who brings it up or dwells on it. It is you obsessed freaks. Look at today. I have made several posts talking about blackjack, sports betting. You felt the need to bring up something about being gay. NOT ME!.
Now I will admit, every once in a while I will make some small reference knowing that it will throw the many homophobic obsessed freaks here into a tizzy. It isn't me that has the problem. I am good with gay people, straight people (breeders) bi people confused people, closeted people or most of the other letters of the LBG and many expanded letters community, although I admit, I haven't come to terms with the whole trans thing. I am good with white people, black people, Latinos, and just about every other race. I am good with all religions or no religions. I may make jokes or fun of someone or some group, but I am really good with everyone. Live and let live. Few here can say the same.
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Originally Posted by kewlj
And of course someone who doesn't care what people think of her is going to spend hours crafting these lonnnnng posts in defense of herself.Quote:
Originally Posted by MDawg
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Originally Posted by Gottlob1
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Originally Posted by MDawg
What does 10X have to do, however, with MDawg?Quote:
Originally Posted by MDawg
10X more credibility than UNKewlJ, that's what!Quote:
Originally Posted by MaxPen
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Originally Posted by MaxPen
And this one had to hurt, the most unkindest cut of all! :Quote:
Originally Posted by MDawgWhat's entertaining is how at first it was just RobSinger, MickeyCrimm, monet, CoachBelly, EvenBob, Blackhole, Bosox, Tater/Moses, BillRyan, DeMango, SM777, 100XOdds, vegas, JohnnyQ, GWAE, Norm and some others, who were anti-UNKewlJ and calling him out for his lies. Then MDawg joined in, and one by one everyone else has boarded the
train, calling the bum out as both mentally ill and a compulsive liar.
And then as each forum member turned against him, Ozzy, AccountInQuestion, UnJon, redietz, Ray Finkle, MarcusClark66, WellBush, mcap, keystone, Mission146, PunkCity, Wizard, seedvalue, unowme, smurgerburger, Gottlob1, Dan Druff, Tasha, MaxPen, Boz, AxelWolf, etc. it was as if a knife was turning again and again in his weak bowels, until...no one was left on his deserted island. Just the pain he exhibits as he realizes that the gig is long up and yet keeps, as MisterV put it, flailing about deflecting...unmasked...unable to deal with it running around the forum like a scalded monkey, hurling feces in the hope that some will stick is at least as good entertainment as the free show at Circus Circus.
Almost as much fun as watching him flail about is hearing him try to claim that
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Originally Posted by kewlJ
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Originally Posted by MisterV
Whatever he is, he occupies blocks of prime real estate in that minuscule brain of yours….Get help JerkoffQuote:
Originally Posted by MDawg
And this one had to hurt, the most unkindest cut of all! :
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Originally Posted by MisterV
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Originally Posted by MDawg
The hound, while relentlessly snapping and foaming at the mouth, never seems able to bite anything other than his own tail.
"Arf"
KewlJ basically said I past-posted my post here, which means he either can't read, can't tell time, doesn't know what day it is, or all of the above. Why would anyone give him one ounce of credibility?
Oh, calm down Red. Posting from my phone, I saw the 6am and thought it was today, not noticing that it was yesterday. I made a mistake. Sue me. Congrats to you for whatever chalk you picked yesterday. Ok?Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
All this bickering....and over a lying loser faggot no less.
It's pretty darn clear: kew OBVIOUSLY is continually bothered by NO ONE believing his pathological lies, and he's even MORE BOTHERED over how he just cannot convince anyone about anything he makes up while trying so hard to impress a handful of nobodys. The proof? Who else needs to keep posting long-winded denial after denial. His sick heart isn't the only diseased organ in that wimpy body.
This is the textbook definition of a loser in life. It also explains his continuing obsessive need to try and keep his "counting two tables" (or was it three....the bozo never CAN keep his lies straight) fabrication active.
Much better week in week 2 for the under dogs. I went 9-4 heading into the sunday night game, which I had some wagers win (chicago +6.5) and some push (chicago +6).
So Half Smoke's 1st 2 week underdog play went 15-13 for me, with a couple games, one last week and one Sunday night this week partial pushes and partial wins or loss (last week). Back of envelope math has me up $3586. Not the windfall I was looking for, but not bad after a 6-9 first week. There is one game remaining, monday night, but I am not betting that using this play. I like a different play involving the over/under for that game.
That I eeked out a profit, doesn't confirm that this play is +EV, or -EV. But I feel strongly that it is +EV based on now 12 years of data provided by Half Smoke. And I plan to play it again next year. Thanks to Half Smoke for sharing this play and the data backing it up. Hope you did well Half Smoke, as well as anyone else tagging along.
By the way, most of the underdogs won outright. So if you were doing something with underdog money lines, you did quite well also. I only bet the points.
And 3 of the 4 biggest favorites lost out right today. Add that to the biggest favorite last week, Cincinnati losing and there must be a lot of people out of those suicide pools and contests. I don't play them.
It ALL just goes back to the basis of this Half Smoke underdog with points play over the first 2 weeks. The favorites, while likely the better team and will show that later in the year, just aren't anymore ready to play the first couple weeks than the worser teams. There are a number of things that contribute to that, including now only 3 preseason games, in which many starters just don't play or play much.
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Originally Posted by MDawg
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Originally Posted by kewlJOh, calm down Red. Posting from my phone, I saw the 6am and thought it was today, not noticing that it was yesterday. I made a mistake. Sue me. Congrats to you for whatever chalk you picked yesterday. Ok?Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
You post a complete fabrication about somebody who has been in the public eye doing this for 45 years, you post a complete and utter doofus lie, and you want that person to just blow it off because you allegedly read your phone wrong? You went on some made-up rant because you can't read? It didn't occur to you to actually check what you were writing? And you want to criticize MDawg for making shit up?
You are stone cold guilty of libel.
What kind of completely gutless loudmouth undisciplined moron are you?
I suggest we get together at South Point next time I'm in town and discuss this, because this is not going away, my friend. You owe me, at the least, an in-person apology and an explanation in writing or in person as to how this will not happen again.
Good God redietz! Your nuts! I thought the post about betting favorites was made 6am Sunday instead of 6 am saturday. I made a mistake. Get over it.
But still, you didn't really say what games or that you were betting favorites in all games. Just made a post about betting favorites. then come back the next day with some numbers about favorites winning and your numbers didn't even match other people's, like Half Smokes's for how favorites did.
But whatever. Again if you bet favorites saturday and did well. Good for you.
You want to make a big deal out of libel, look at what YOU and others say and claim about me. So just go fuck yourself.
Going to be in the 80's today and all week in Vegas and I have a busy week planned, so not going to waste time on here. But I want to say one final thing about this Half smoke play.
This is a legitimate play based on 12 years of data. And it is a narrow part of a bigger underdog data provided by Wizard for decades of NFL games, 10's of thousands of games. It was and is +EV, even though for me just barely won this year. Last year was 20-12 for the 2 weeks, which I did play online after Half Smoke first shared the play. Of course every year wasn't going to be 20-12. Wouldn't that be sweet. And it would have been +EV, even if it had narrowly lost instead of narrowly won.
I publicly stated what I was betting before a single game was played. Actually have mentioned it several times throughout the summer waiting for these first two weeks. Last sunday morning, I even commented how I may have over done it for my comfort level when I realized how much I had riding on week 1.
What I got fro our expert Red, was calling this play a trend. Even Boz said something about me chasing a -EV trend. This is/was a +EV play that Half smoke gave out to several gambling forums, with the data backing it up. Any AP that bets football that didn't jump on it, just left money on the table, even though it only turned a small profit this year. But really the only other AP, that I saw publicly jump on it, was Axelwolf and good for him. I hope he stuck with it and played the second week.
And after the first week and all the comments about trends and chasing -EV, when this +EV play turned around, Guess what? Not a single chirp. Crickets. Not a single person had a word to say. Not a single "good for you for sticking with it". Why am I not surprised?
NO, NO, NO it wasn’t an AP play. You are just wrong on that. I can find any historical “trend” and say the next game is +EV based on historical context. That doesn’t make today’s play +EV when you have a built in house edge like sports does.Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
I am happy you won on it but saying you had an edge is just wrong. At least you didn’t follow this ass clown. And you didn’t bet parlays so there’s that. Again, congratulations since no one else is saying it.
Thank you for that Boz. But your comments about house edge and +EV are just wrong. House edge does not necessarily make a play -EV. Take blackjack. There is a definite house edge. But card counting and other AP plays can and do overcome that house edge and make the play +EV.Quote:
Originally Posted by The BozNO, NO, NO it wasn’t an AP play. You are just wrong on that. I can find any historical “trend” and say the next game is +EV based on historical context. That doesn’t make today’s play +EV when you have a built in house edge like sports does.Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
I am happy you won on it but saying you had an edge is just wrong. At least you didn’t follow this ass clown. And you didn’t bet parlays so there’s that. Again, congratulations since no one else is saying it.
In this case, yes, there is a definite house edge because of the juice. But the likelihood of lines being wrong, under and overvalued in the early weeks, can over come the house edge. And it is the data that proves that.
Take Wizards data. (forgetting your dislike of the man). Wizards data show for something like 17 years, every NFL game, that betting underdogs show a small profit. That is thousands and thousands of games. That is NOT a trend. A trend is The cowboys have won 5 of last 6 meetings.
EVERYTHING a casino offers has a house edge. Advantage play is finding something that can overcome that house edge. And that is what Half Smokes first two week underdog play does. Just the same as card counting or hole-carding overcomes the casino house edge in blackjack.
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Originally Posted by MDawg
What does a 21-0 unit day mean?Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
It sounds good, but one can use clever wording and use various methods that can all but guarantee incredible win rates.
I don't even know what the final tally is thus far.Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
But here's the thing we can't know how you did because we haven't any clue what lines you got.
There were about 2-3 games where 1/2 point turned a push into a win.
I didn't have time to shop, I had to take what I could get at the last minute. Non line shopping cost me probably about 6k.
While that's true for the most part, that's not 100% accurate. I have played numerous games over the years that had a built-in mathematical player advantage straight up.Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
IE a new table game where a mathematical mistake has been made in the rules or playoffs..
Whats wrong with parlays? Yesterday morning had you did some round Robin parlayed on all the dogs you would've made a small fortune.. you would have gotten some good lines as well.Quote:
Originally Posted by The BozNO, NO, NO it wasn’t an AP play. You are just wrong on that. I can find any historical “trend” and say the next game is +EV based on historical context. That doesn’t make today’s play +EV when you have a built in house edge like sports does.Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
I am happy you won on it but saying you had an edge is just wrong. At least you didn’t follow this ass clown. And you didn’t bet parlays so there’s that. Again, congratulations since no one else is saying it.
Sheena Easton's first release was recorded in Dec 1979 and released Feb 1980.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
I don't think either you or her were still teenagers by then.
parlays can sometimes be good bets but often they're notQuote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolf
there is often more vig compared to a straight bet - and sometimes the parlays have their own special rules which are not advantageous to the player
with parlays books play on the bettors well known desire to have a huge payday
in horse racing they bump the vig up on the exotics (which are really parlays) at some tracks to as high as 30% which is insane
I suggest you read the linked article
from the article:
"According the the Nevada's Center for Gaming Research the state's sportsbooks earned on average 5.7 cents on every dollar wagered on football
Parlays however resulted in a windfall of 32.1 cents on the dollar"
https://archive.ph/lkpZ0
This is fun! The more that gets posted, the more lies kew tells. And the more we see how nobody likes the scrawny little rat :)
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Originally Posted by accountinquestion
What is really funny and revealing to me is just how completely obsessed the two posters above are with me. And how really angry and bitter both show themselves to be that I am doing some advantage play stuff (in this case. Sports betting) to win, while both the guys are life long losing gamblers using and promoting all kinds of long disproved gambling voodoo techniques.
Goofy bastards!
No doubt parlays are bad for the average bettor however there are plenty of situations where it's beneficial for an advantage player to utilize.Quote:
Originally Posted by Half Smokeparlays can sometimes be good bets but often they're notQuote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolf
there is often more vig compared to a straight bet - and sometimes the parlays have their own special rules which are not advantageous to the player
with parlays books play on the bettors well known desire to have a huge payday
in horse racing they bump the vig up on the exotics (which are really parlays) at some tracks to as high as 30% which is insane
I suggest you read the linked article
from the article:
"According the the Nevada's Center for Gaming Research the state's sportsbooks earned on average 5.7 cents on every dollar wagered on football
Parlays however resulted in a windfall of 32.1 cents on the dollar"
https://archive.ph/lkpZ0
Quote:
Originally Posted by MDawgAnd now going on a year trying desperately to establish that he's ever placed a sports bet in his tunnel dwelling life.Quote:
Originally Posted by MDawg
Reading what you have posted at WoV, and now here, it sounds to me like you and I were pretty much doing the same thing with this Half smoke play.Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolf
I am not a "professional sports bettor", as the title of this thread indicates. But for the last year since last September sports betting and in particular the bonus chasing or bonus whoring at online casinos has accounted for about 1/3 of my AP income. I really don't know how long that will continue.
But this Half Smoke play is something different than the bonus whoring. And I wanted to get down more money on these first two weeks, of what I believe is a significant +EV play than I could get down (or felt comfortable getting down) at the handful of online books that I use. So living in Vegas I hit some B & M casinos and sportsbooks to place additional money on these first two weeks games.
Now not being a professional sports bettor, I didn't really line shop. I went out on Thurdsay, hit several casinos and books and bet the underdogs + points. Then Friday Evening I bet the underdogs at several of my online books that offer half juice on Friday evenings. Then Sunday Morning, I wagered at the remaining online books. So I made wagers on the same games, Thursday, Friday, Sunday at diferent sports books. And this meant in some cases I got lines that were 1/2, 1 point, in one case a point and a half different on the same games. At least one game each week, including the Sunday night game last night, that mattered. It resulted in some wagers being a push and some a win, last night. Last week, it resulted in some wagers being a push and some a loss on the same game.
It was more about just when I wagered than line shopping. If I was really going to do this full time, as my full time income, I would have to put more time in line shopping. Maybe check something like Vegas insider for what lines are at which casinos and then hit the best lines for each game for what I am betting. Had I done that, I probably could have turned a loss on some bets of one game last week into a push and a push on some bets last night into a win. That probably would have bumped me up a couple thousand or more. But jeez, I have a life too AND am doing other things right now. Been playing a lot of blackjack again after taking most of the summer off.
Not exactly true, is it?Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
Casinos been making mistakes, in favor of the player, for decades.
As a matter of fact, sometimes, the Casino advertises games over 100% Return, with big flashy signs.
Quote:
Originally Posted by accountinquestion
lol at the Axel Wolf Strategy... Give me 2000 on every dog!
That's actually the "Owning Mahowny" Strategy.
Starts at 1:20 in the video.
Give me all the home teams in the National.
Give me all the away teams in the American.
-- You're Kidding? --
Every game for the thousand dollar max.
-- You da man! --
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w1k6NgiOHvM
With any due respect you are playing right into MDawgs hands with this nonsense. Again, you had a trend that is not +EV regardless of what some poster on forums researched. You are putting HS on some pedestal for a trend that you can find easily with a little research.Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
And in no way is it even close to being better than bonus whoring. And nothing anyone has trend wise is better than bonus whoring.
And now you are talking about being a full time sport bettor. Dude you are coming across as the guy these guys have accused you of being for years.
Honestly it’s beneath you and embarrassing that you are this stupid toward sports betting thinking it’s this easy to find a few old trends and shopping lines at different Vegas books to be a winner.
Do me a favor, look at home favorites between 3-6 points in Week 6 for the past 18 NFL seasons. How much are you going to dump on this historical “Trend”? It has a 13.3% edge over the time frame.
How about betting against a left handed starting QB as 7+ point favorites on the road since 1983. Granted it’s mostly Steve Young and Boomer along with some Mark Brunell and Michael Vick thrown in for good measure but it’s a winning “trend”.
What are you talking about Boz? You are making statements that are opposite of what I said. I specifically said "I am NOT a full-time sports bettor"Quote:
Originally Posted by The Boz
And where did I say this "was better" than bonus whoring"? Which I have been doing for 12 months, (4 complete cycles of bonus/rollover/withdrawl). Still doing the bonus whoring. This was just an additional play. and even incorporated into the bonus whoring for the wagers made at the online books. I just wanted to make some additional wagers and chose to do so at B& M rather than inject 30 grand more into the sports books and wait and hope I could withdraw.
Why do you think this is instead of or replacing my bonus whoring play? Doesn't matter, don't even answer. Bottom line is I believe this Half Smoke play is +EV. I won $7200 last September when dogs + points went 10-6 both weeks and another $3500 this year first two weeks. Guess what? Looking forward to next year. :cool:
Reminder: kew doesn't appreciate being undressed like that.
And I don't give a flying fuck (or a sitting or standing fuck) about Mdawg. THAT guy has demonstrated over and over that he knows little about playing with an advantage and actually winning. And even less about sports betting in particular. AND YOU KNOW IT! I would listen to Tasha before I would listen to that clown. Mdawg has proven to be Singer 2.0. Just replace Singers "special plays and machines telling him hot and cold cycles, with Mdawgs "betting into hot streaks" and $100 to $5000 bets spreads at Double deck on the strip, which is pure fantasy.Quote:
Originally Posted by The Boz
Like me or not and I recognize that many don't. Believe me or not and I recognize that many don't. Nothing I say defies the math and the way Las Vegas works, like these two. As a matter of fact, I will go as far as to say that any player that reads what I write about blackjack (from my experiences) and how I do things including play style and betting limits/spreads ect and incorporates that into their game, would do pretty well. :rolleyes:
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Originally Posted by MDawg
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Originally Posted by kewlJ
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Originally Posted by accountinquestion
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Originally Posted by smurgerburger
Well played, KJ: just wind the hound up and watch him chase and bite his own tail.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QcRf0y5-_Uw
*Arf*
Quote:
Originally Posted by MisterV
Correct...and since you don't know whether or not I actually believe him my comment is neutral and of zero value to your campaign against him.Quote:
Originally Posted by MDawgQuote:
Originally Posted by MisterV
I'm not saying publcly whether I believe him or disbelieve him, but I choose to support him...draw your own conclusions.
Troll rejected...try again.
.Quote:
Originally Posted by MaxPen
No?Quote:
Originally Posted by MisterV
Quote:
Originally Posted by MisterV
Like a broken record again, even knowing that nobody believes anything you say. All those AP-like "filler words" and all your begging & pleading isn't ever gonna make a dent in your spittoon of lies.Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJAnd I don't give a flying fuck (or a sitting or standing fuck) about Mdawg. THAT guy has demonstrated over and over that he knows little about playing with an advantage and actually winning. And even less about sports betting in particular. AND YOU KNOW IT! I would listen to Tasha before I would listen to that clown. Mdawg has proven to be Singer 2.0. Just replace Singers "special plays and machines telling him hot and cold cycles, with Mdawgs "betting into hot streaks" and $100 to $5000 bets spreads at Double deck on the strip, which is pure fantasy.Quote:
Originally Posted by The Boz
Like me or not and I recognize that many don't. Believe me or not and I recognize that many don't. Nothing I say defies the math and the way Las Vegas works, like these two. As a matter of fact, I will go as far as to say that any player that reads what I write about blackjack (from my experiences) and how I do things including play style and betting limits/spreads ect and incorporates that into their game, would do pretty well. :rolleyes:
How many more "respected" people need to attach your dumb ass to the whipping post before you finally get it?
I'm beginning to believe more and more that you have to be a bit of a retard in order to carry on like this. And just like everyone else, I'll keep on laughing at you!
Quote:
Originally Posted by MaxPenYes, it is a concocted story in order to support the fraudulent storyline that is his wannabe life. This really is a mental illness. FraudJ said he wasn't going to share anything else. He can't help himself. What's funny is he is so ignorant about the realities of the real world that he can't even concoct a story with an ounce of believability. I'm going to blame that on the tunnel gas exposure effects on the brain.Quote:
Originally Posted by MDawg
Put that in context, boyo...I had in mind how he lied about being dead.Quote:
Originally Posted by MDawgNo?Quote:
Originally Posted by MisterV
Quote:
Originally Posted by MisterV
Duh-oh.
It doesn’t bode well for your credibility as it may be true what Rob.Singer keeps saying about you if you’re willing to lie like that.
Your “Sure he lies” was in response to the below post about the plurality of UNKewlJ’s “years of lying.” And is plural “sure he lies” and ongoing not referring to a single past “lied.”
Quote:
Originally Posted by MDawgAll of the above is why, it seems clear, that Dan Druff has resigned UNKewlJ to the dung heap.
He no longer even refers to UNKewlJ by way ofQuote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
, which practically gave him some benefit of the doubt, but now as someone who has put in "years of lying" on multiple forums. I don't think he described UNKewlJ in that definitive way without some deliberation.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
In short, why do you lie, V? It seems like you can’t help yourself any more than UNKewLyingJ.
Tilting at windmills again, are we Dawg Quixote?Quote:
Originally Posted by MDawg
KJ has admitted that he has lied: I simply acknowledge that fact.
Nice try, though...
$2,200 on all the first 2 week doggies. I didn't bet them all at the same location. I scrambled around to 3 locations. I felt that cashing in a bunch of winners might lead to some BS, regardless of the total results win or lose, I just dont want to deal with the BS right now, I just got too much going on(probably some stuff you would enjoy), I dont want to add any grief right now.Quote:
Originally Posted by monet
The Good News, they seemed to forget I was banned from betting at WH. They forced me to get their card, I was going to just walk, but I said fuck it. Perhaps they will catch it and give me shit when I cash in?
In any case, do you think HalfSmokes data = +EV?
Apparently Richard Munchkin is out of retirement and now manages beards. In the video below he states that some other party/person originates the sportsbetting models he uses and that his job is to figure out how to get the required action into the Books. He states this towards the end of the podcast. Either it is just that easy to make huge money doing this (beard management) to justify coming out of retirement or he blew his bankroll somehow or underestimated the cost of retirement IMHO. Things may lean toward the latter since why would he promo himself on a podcast if things were so rosy (the difficulty might be in recruiting clean accounts - even for an expert beard recruiter). I'd just be quietly banking that shit if it were that good.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b-UA_rsLuS0
I'm sure Mr. Munchkin has plenty of money (note: I had lunch with him a few months ago).
Beard management, given the current rules and regs, is a bit of an artform, and I'm sure it's worthwhile to have someone like Mr. Munchkin streamline and prioritize the mechanics of it. Otherwise, you spin your wheels, and you can wind up being inefficient in many ways and exposed pretty quickly.
I think his reporting and highlighting of how many "legitimate" books are attempting to restrict/screw people plays into all this. (Sidenote: I still have 80% of my money tied up with "illegitimate" books. There's a reason for that. LOL. Sometimes the easy way ain't really the easy way.) I think it likely that Mr. Munchkin's horrified reporting of the naive management of current big-time "legit" sports books has played a role. He may even have had his eye on this the entire time he was reporting on the slimy idiocy of the "legit" books. Hell, I have a couple of anecdotes involving the "legit" book run by Hard Rock in Virginia that you probably would not believe.
What puts Mr. Munchkin in a unique position is his reputation. 99% of people are not in a reputational position to handle other people's money at the level of what's required for actual serious sports betting. Now I'm sure Mr. Munchkin's money-handling dwarfs what I did, but I'm also sure my better half's money-handling dwarfed whatever Mr. Munchkin is currently doing.
I wouldn't worry about Mr. Munchkin's bankroll. We discussed biggest offshore rip-offs we've experienced in our lives. I don't think Mr. Munchkin has run into anything in the last 40 years that he can't financially handle.
At some point, you and the other VCT/WoV luminaries may come to understand just how dwarfed all the blackjack/video poker/alleged "advantage player" stuff is compared to sports betting. What Mr. Munchkin is doing is not a step down; it's an elevator ride up.
Redietz, you are to be commended for the self-discipline you have showed over the years in not skimming any of the money for the bets you are assigned to make that those less disciplined might take off the top for the purpose of paying their property taxes.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
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Originally Posted by tableplayRedietz, you are to be commended for the self-discipline you have showed over the years in not skimming any of the money for the bets you are assigned to make that those less disciplined might take off the top for the purpose of paying their property taxes.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
And you are to be commended for having a credit rating lower than mine. Must be tough to fake your way through a capitalist life. But I give you all the credit (see what I did there?) in the world for trying.
Can you imagine it? One of the great and most well-known APs of our time, Richard Munchkin, is now doing (in part) what I've been doing for 40 years. And some forum-spouting "APs" can't figure it out. "He must be broke." LOL. Yeah, that's the ticket. Do you understand what a doofus you are?
Note that when the beard operater is not a member here redietz makes no comments on the morality of doing that. Others on here were accused of ripping off family members by using their accounts. Oh wait it was bonus money but a beard is a beard.
Just saying. Always glad to read redietzs posts.
Contrast it with the thorough munchkin ball massage witnessed above.