Does this mean that you lost between $5k-$6K after you hit the royal?
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Actually, my losses came before the royal, playing craps.
I was miserable at the craps table, when Dave (one of the dealers) asked me "any luck at video poker?" I replied: "I haven't played yet."
So I cashed out of the craps game and went to video poker. Put $1,500 in the machine and hit the royal after losing $1200.
That turned my luck around. And just before I left I had that monster at the craps table hitting the small and the tall in the same hand, but NOT the all. (See the other thread.)
Nice hit on the royal, Alan! I assumed you exited the casino immediately afterwards? No tip for the slot attendant? Also, Rob Singer likes to say one should take it easy for a while after hitting a royal. Make it last a bit! After a couple months of not playing any VP, your luck should "reset" itself after such a long break so you don't suffer an immediate mathematics-based backlash from the holy RNG.
You said you lost $1300 before hitting this. That equates to +$18,700. What happened to the other $5700? Are you saying you just couldn't stop until the losses started piling up?
I'm starting to get the HD picture of why two thugs showed up at your door. And does gambling after getting thrown out qualify for an action fix? Common sense says you should be taking serious stock right about now, and to leave the casinos alone until your house gets in order. Just a thought.
It sounds like Alan was down about $10K playing craps just before his monster roll, then switching to VP.
Is my math correct?
Congratulations Alan!
I have a question. According to vpfree2, Alan played 8/5 Bonus on a machine that also contained 9/6 Jacks. Was he rated at a higher theo than if he had chosen to play Jacks?
That important?...no, of interest?...yes.
Tales of big gambling swings are of interest on these forums...aren't they?
Like Huck Seed's $670K royal, it's interesting to know how much he was stuck before it hit, that's why he disclosed it.
https://www.pokernewsdaily.com/huck-...-670000-19783/
In your craps report, you didn't disclose that you finished in the red or how much you were stuck.
So when you wrote that you were down $1300 before hitting a $20K royal, and left with $13K , it created confusion.
I asked if you had lost more after hitting the royal, as a possible opportunity to discuss bankroll management and adjusted stop-loss points.
You didn't disclose how much your monster craps roll netted, only that you were still down $5700 after a monster roll.
You had previously been very forthcoming in discussing bankroll, win goals, stop-loss, session profits, etc.
This time you left some unconnected dots, an unsolved puzzle.
A monster roll doesn't necessarily mean a big win. In my case, I was playing a $10 table and I never pressed any bet to above $25. I held the dice for about an hour -- and that was the monster.
I also happen to have hit both the SMALL and the TALL during that roll but there was a "winner 7" in between the two of them which is why I didn't make the ALL.
If you must know, I started with $15 on the passline and $52 across. The point was 8 and I had $50 odds. When I colored up I had about $2,500 from the nearly-hour long roll.
Also understand the table was FULL so rolls did not come quickly. There were 16 players at the table -- 8 on each side and no boxman to help. Floormen who watch the table are not permitted to touch money or even to turn over the lamers for the Small, Tall, All bet.
Most of my profit came from the Small and the Tall that I hit with $25 on each position. With the new pays that Caesars has, they paid $775 each. (Previously it was $875.)
The only confusion was with you and your butt boy idol....and that`s only because he`s a loser that`s jealous of people going out and doing things he only wishes he could on his government scrap handouts....and you because you`re just a dipshit....The man won 13K, leave it at that, and don`t let it stick in your craw...leave that for Singer`s di.....nevermind
I saw a guy at Pechanga need a hand pay after hitting for $7200 playing keno on a vp machine. What's the biggest keno payout you've seen from a machine?
Sorry for getting this thread back on track but hit this nice progressive yesterday. Got the hand pay and left.
Beautiful regnis! Congrats.
Congratulations on the royal, regnis.
Did you mention that you took the handpay and left to appease Rob? LOL
Thanks-- I had planned on playing for several more hours as I have had a grueling few months at work. But when that popped I said get your ass out of there or you'll lose it all back at dice.
Thanks Sling
Gratz on the royal.
I see it's triple double bonus. That game is usually brutal. Hopefully you hit that RF rather quickly.
A STRONG vp player is one who does what's best for himself, and is able to keep the temptations of the casino as well as his own weaknesses from dictating terms. Tired or not, regnis did what almost everyone else here could never do: take a great handpay and immediately leave with that amount of profit.
Now the second most important question: I hope he was smart enuf not to just give away free money to the floor people for simply doing their job and not performing any type of requested service by regnis. Is this correct?
And BTW, you DO realize you really did not win anything at all, right? With that trimmed TDBP payable, every hand you played--including this one--cost you money!
I am not a big TDB fan. I usually play DDB or SDDB. But with the progressive, I was really just trying to stay alive and was playing Bonus. It was very cold and I switched to DDB which was also cold. Switched to TDB for the last few spins and hit.
I took a marker for 2500 a couple hours earlier. I put $100 in this machine and had 2800 left in my pocket before the hit. My range was down 300 and up 400 during that time. Also didn't repay the marker which will get me called in for a warning.
And yes you take a marker because you don't want to be carrying cash to a casino to which you have to go through the south side of Chicago to get to. Uneasy going home with the cash.
Rob--sorry to say that after tax there was an odd seven dollars on the hand pay and that was given as a tip.
Is there some kind of state tax, or do you mean you had them deduct federal income tax? And why would $7 not be important enough to keep?
TDB is a highly volatile game, and playing that game because the royal is progressive (especially at 9/5) is a play only a gambler's mother could love. But all that's NOTHING compared to braving a trip thru the south side of Chicago in order to go to a casino. You're work must have been mind-boggling in order to have put together such a day. Overall with all things considered, I'd rate it at D+.
regnis just curious: how many four to the royal draws did you go through before hitting this one? Do you think it was more or less than 47?
This was actually the only one. I wasn't even getting 3 to the royal that often. But I was getting decent but not great cards whatever game I was playing. No long cold streaks and a few quads to maintain.
State tax Rob. Both Illinois and Indiana take tax on jackpots. A lousy $7.00 takes it from an A+ to a D+. You're tuff--maybe you should grade on a curve.
We have had occurrences of gamblers being followed home and robbed and even killed in addition to just the threats of driving through the south side. Somewhere in this forum I have mentioned the night I got attacked by 3 fine young men after a hockey game just off of downtown. It's an unfortunate fact of life in an otherwise great city.
Congrats, regnis. Nice hit.
Save some shekels. I hear the DRF is starting its own horse racing championship, and no money is taken out of the pool for administration. Maybe a worthwhile investment.
Congrats again!
My guess is saying winning ANYTHING is better than losing sounds kinda shallow after this experience. It did, however, add another chapter in my quest on the subject of changing games while playing- since, if I understand correctly, each game is run by its own seed. Too many "coincidental" wins for me to just diss it off. Great post.
Yes-they have been running some low entry fee qualifiers, but they made it a multi step process. The low entry qualifier ($11) gets you to the first round qualifier. Or, you can pay $95 to play in the first round qualifier. Then one of seven advance to the round 2 qualifier (or buy in for $580). If you make it that far, then in round 2 the top 10% advance to the finals later in the year.
If you make the finals, then it's 200 players. A little different format will be used. Day 1 the top 100 advance. On day 2 it is 2 pronged and 50 will advance to the final later on day 2.
The "no money is taken out" thing may be a little misdirection by them. I am not sure, but I think that applies only to the finals. I believe that there is take out along the way. But they are entitled as they have to administer the whole thing. Plus, the ratios to advance round to round are better than in other contests. I think you can also buy in for $5,000 which actually isn't bad in a real money contest but is pretty steep for this type of contest.
That is pretty steep, but I know a couple of people likely to buy in directly if they do not qualify. I see what you mean -- they are conducting this like a multi-stage poker tournament and taking their cut from the sub-stages. Somebody told me they intend to have their final near the NHC final date-wise. If that's true, it seems they intend to go full-on head-to-head with the NHC. A lot of people would not be sad about that.
Well, that royal will fund many sub-stages, so good luck. It'll be fun to take a few cracks at it.
Great hit, Regnis!
Was that at Horseshoe Hammond?
The VP there has really gone downhill in the last year or two. The place used to be pretty good -9/6 DDB with progressive, ULT4OAKB, ect. They might as well call it Horsh*t Hammond now.
With Indiana's tax laws on W2Gs, their best games, the $5 9/7TDB and 9/6 BDLX are unplayable (in my opinion).
Congrats again.
Of course you are be facetious here, Rob. But 9/5 TDB is a 97% game. And Indiana has a 3.4% state tax on W2-G jackpots that are withheld and you can't get it back because you can't deduct losses. On dollars or higher it turns that 800 for 1 jackpot into a 763 for 1 jackpot. And it turns that 400 for 1 jackpot into a 384 for 1 jackpot. That equates to a .6% reduction in the payback of the game. So you would be playing a 96.4% game. And at $5 denom or higher the 250 for 1 hits are subject to the 3.4% tax. That's another deduction of .3%. So tell us, Rob. Can your martingale system with the special plays of sub-optimal holds beat this game?
At what payback percentage does your system fail? This is a question you have been asked before but have never answered. The great Rob Singer should know the answer to this question. Would you please give us a serious answer to it.
And could you show us your crockumentation?
First of all, you're claiming I played 9/5 tdbp at Wynn when I hit the four aces with a kicker on their $25 machine, when it was 9/7. Check out the pic that's already in the system here. It's as much a doozy for Singer haters now as it was when I posted it.
Then be sure to ask your silly pal Axel how many hits like that at that denomination his "team" has had. Aside from a ton of angst, no doubt he'll come to you for some pretend story-telling.
You didn't answer the question, Rob. At what payback percentage does your system fail? Your system would fail at some point. Would your system fail at 9/6 TDB, 9/5 TDB? Surely, the world's greatest video poker player would know the answer. What's the lowest payback percentage that your system will still work? People are dying to know.
I asked this same question of him on multiple occasions. He never answered. I don't expect him to answer now. The words "Singer" and "fail" just can't be in the same sentence.
Anybody who knew anything about his own "system" would have an answer or answers.
Textbook quackery.
DDB--it was at the Horseshoe which does have crap VP and now the worst craps tables I have ever seen. They have lost all of their big VP players and big craps players.
For those of you that play craps, the tables are so bouncy that even a soft throw will bounce up and over and out. No chance to control the dice at all. Also, the pass line is too close to the back wall so there is no open space at which to aim the dice. You almost have to hit the chips. I haven't played craps there in years and had I decided to play craps after hitting the royal, I would have gone to a different casino.
OK--guilty as charged. But I was already in the "pride of Obama country" closing a deal. As it turns out, I have always had a presence in the black business community and they are some of my best clients. And their money still counts too. So it was the closest casino to get to and I was already in the neighborhood.
Right, any 4 of a kind on either of those $5 games is taxed at 3.4% - which as MC pointed, in Indiana, is gone for good as you can't deduct gambling losses on Indiana state taxes.
Other casinos, only 5 minutes away, have much better paytables. I had some FP to run a while back and saw games like 8/5 DDB for dollars, and all lower denom. progressives were 7/5 with painfully slow meters.
I can accept mediocre games in Vegas, at a fancy place like Bellagio with excellent service and comp booze, but not at a place like HH.
I'm a klutz at figures, but I can read pretty good. I know for a fact Rob has written:
(1)Percentages have NOTHING to do with winning
(2) Playing past a reasonable win goal is the first step to being a loser.
(3) Playing past a loss goal is the second step.
That just about covers it because talking about his strategies is too far above your heads.
Rob's a helluva writer. See, 99% of the people reading the above will conclude Rob is saying his strategy will make money in the long term. But that's not really what he wrote. He said his strategy would "succeed," which is a subjective term not necessarily directly applicable to making money. Legally, one could say a vp strategy is "succeeding" if the person wins a lot of sessions percentage-wise, even though he loses a boatload of money overall. Similarly, legally one could say a strategy is succeeding if it keeps you in the seat a certain amount of time. "Succeeding" is in the eye of the beholder. Rob knows this.
Bottom line: Succeed does not mean "making money overall for any length of time." It could mean anything. Rob doesn't define it.
It's no accident that Rob avoided any mention of making money or coming out ahead financially. He's a tricky writer. It takes an editor's eye to catch some of this stuff.
come on redietz... now you want to get into the debate about the long term?
I don't give a damn about the long term. I care only if I win each session when I play, whether that session is five minutes or a week long trip to Vegas.
If Rob has a method/system/strategy that will make me a winner for five minutes or a week long trip it's good enough for me.
If that system says quit when ahead it makes sense to me.
I'm STILL curious, if you all are so confident in his baloney, why do you people WORK for a living instead of becoming multi millionaires playing his way?? Answer...because it DOESN'T work and you'll all go broke!!
Is that the liberal party line response....or did you actually read it, understand it, and try it but fail?
When it comes to dumb, fact-free statements like you make about my play strategy, you're not helping yourself or anyone else. At least when ap-VP failed for me, I tried it for 6+ years and publicly admitted it--even before I had won four sessions at SPS of over $2500/session. So is it any wonder the vast majority of my critics are anonymous cowards prone to lying?
To play the artt strategy properly, starting at 5¢-50¢ would require a bankroll of $2,400 for 3 sessions. For the sps strategy, for 3 6 level sessions starting at 5¢-$2, the bankroll would be $4,680. I assure you when I accumulate &2,500 free money I will start with the artt strategy instead of my 5¢-25¢ 3 level penny ante $50-$100 wins. Still, there won't be any silly expectation of becoming a millionaire. Actually, I really prefer the single play strategy, but it is both physically and mentally exhausting.
Hey Rob, why don't you go ahead and tell everyone how playing your strategy will result in winning money going forward. Not session wins. Not glory and happiness. But real money. Then we have you on record. Instead of predicting "success" of some kind, or instead of summarizing particular past hands or past months of play, why don't you just state for the record that your strategy will make people money going forward. Let's get you on record here.
Come on all you pussys!! Put up or shut the fuck up. Quit your jobs and play Singer's system all day!! Come on you chicken shits!! Scared wimps is what you all are!!
Obviously red....if someone or someoneS learned every aspect of the SPS strategy, played it just as instructed, and have at least the same very strong discipline I have when inside casinos, then they will win in their coming "long term" just as I have. With better luck they will 100% win more; with worse luck they will win less. And there is a VERY small chance they will lose their $171,600 bankroll--or the equivalent should they start at pennies and play thru dollars, instead of my $1 thru $100 spread.
This is absolutely undeniable and indisputable. The HP crowd came to realize that. The rest of you are too afraid to learn it, and would rather cower behind their computers making stupid comments and losing it like the anonymous jbjb does over and over again.
Imagine HIS discipline level while in casinos.....
My excuse is I don't follow Rob's strict win/loss system. I regret it. I've had trips when I hit $20K royals in the past and blew all the money. I admit it.
The other problem that I have is that I couldn't survive on win goals of $300 a day. I make more than that at my job.
Are you saying that if you would have paused for a week before playing again you wouldn't have lost the money back? What's the difference between continuing to play on the day you hit the royal and pausing for a week before you play again? In both cases you are still playing.
Valid question and here's my answer: with very few exceptions, I have been ahead at some point -- even by one dollar -- each day or trip I've had to a casino. If only I had quit when I was ahead -- even by one-dollar -- my "casino balance sheet" would be very different from what it is today.
About a year ago I asked everyone on this forum to keep track and let us know if they were ahead by at least one-dollar at some point during their visit to a casino?
How about you Mickey? What would you say your percentage of casino visits saw you ahead by at least one dollar during some point?
[QUOTE=slingshot;48228]What do you mean by "when I accumulate $2500 free money." You should already have it. If that 3 level martingale was producing $50 to $100 wins you could have run it a few times a day and had the $2500 in
a week. Yet you've been around here for years saying you play Rob's system. What the hell is going on? You should be a millionaire by now.
PS: Not long ago you were bitching about you couldn't hit a quad. What was that all about?
[QUOTE=Alan Mendelson;48258]I would say about 99% because I don't have many losing days. It's because of what I'm playing. I play short term advantages above 110%. I'm not chasing longshot hits like royals. An example would be some of the five-spot video keno progressives I play. The frequency of the solid five is 1551, the game plays on turbo at 40 games per minute. So the average seat time on the play would be about 40 minutes.
But I don't sit down on just any five-spot progressive. The numbers have to be right. When I walk into a slot parlor here and punch up the five spot on the game screen I look at where the progressive meter is at. If I know the average cost to produce the five spot is $150 and see that the meter is on $230 then I grab a seat. It's an average $80 win plus the meter movement. This is a 110%+ play. It's a 40 minute play on average. Is every play a winner? No, but the great bulk of them are. I make good money on these progressives.
I find stuff like this everyday. But here is another point, Alan. If I walk into a slot parlour and punch up all the games that have a potential to go advantage....and I don't find a single game in short term advantage mode like the one I described above...I don't plop down in a chair and start playing a negative expectation game for shits and giggles. No way in hell. I turn around, walk right out the door, and go down the street to the next slot parlour to see what I can find. And if I don't find an advantage play there I go to the next joint. The only time you will ever find me in a seat playing a video game is when I'm a major favorite to win money.
[QUOTE=mickeycrimm;48259]I won't fall for that line again. There was a 3 month period where I listened to that reasoning and - like Alan- tossed it right back. Yesterday I went for my free meal and won $35- after taking into account the $10 for gas- and was back so early my wife thought I had gone to the store. As for Margaritaville-still the same. Stopped by for their free meal and actually saw one woman beating on one of the vp machines and screaming "What's wrong with these ----- machines?!" Took my $5 freeplay and ran it thru once in a penny machine and left with $8. I actually hit a quad there a week ago. How? I would start on bp, play about 5-10 hands where, sure enough, a four to the flush would fail and I would switch to another game and the scenario would repeat. I went thru about 20 machines like this- winning $5, losing $5. Finally, ONE machine lasted about 20 hands on bp, and when I switched to ddbp, about 5 hands later I hit 4 3's. An AP would hate this place.
This is beyond jbjb's comprehension.
He also doesn't understand that some don't find their life's work to be a burden.
He has consistently called folks who work for a living lazy, too lazy to spend their time looking for money in casinos.
slingshot has him pegged...he's mentally ill.