Playing the "comp game" and how to lose it.

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Originally Posted by arcimede$

Alan, you are still lying to yourself. In this case you are trying to trick yourself. By claiming that you expect to lose you hope to reduce the likelihood that you will have a big loss. However, like all of us you have had winning and losing sessions. Hence, you know as an absolute fact that you won't always lose. Quit with the silly nonsense. You're only fooling yourself.

I love the new comment by speedo, complete and total projection.

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Come on Arc, now you're not making any sense. How can you say I am "lying to myself"? How can you say "you know as an absolute fact that you won't always lose"? That's ridiculous. There is NOTHING that says I will win. I could lose each and every time.

And frankly, if you don't have win goals you could lose every single time because there is no reason for you to stop and pocket a win and walk out. There is also nothing that says I will ever have a winning hand.

Now, fortunately for me, and for you, we play games that are appropriate for our bankrolls so we have a chance at hitting winners. But I've been at video poker machines where I have lost 20 hands in a row -- and fortunately I had the bankroll to play twenty more hands after that. But if I didn't -- that would have been a total loser of a session, wouldn't it?

The point is you can't make statements like "you know as an absolute fact that you won't always lose." Statements like that are dangerous -- very dangerous. Maybe there should be a "black box warning" on all casino games that says "Warning: you could lose it all playing this game"?

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

Come on Arc, now you're not making any sense. How can you say I am "lying to myself"? How can you say "you know as an absolute fact that you won't always lose"? That's ridiculous. There is NOTHING that says I will win. I could lose each and every time.

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But you haven't, have you? Do you want to discuss reality or some one in a billion chance?

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

And frankly, if you don't have win goals you could lose every single time because there is no reason for you to stop and pocket a win and walk out. There is also nothing that says I will ever have a winning hand.

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Nonsense, no one plays an infinite session. Ever heard of sleep? Quit with the BS.

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

Now, fortunately for me, and for you, we play games that are appropriate for our bankrolls so we have a chance at hitting winners. But I've been at video poker machines where I have lost 20 hands in a row -- and fortunately I had the bankroll to play twenty more hands after that. But if I didn't -- that would have been a total loser of a session, wouldn't it?

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Your claim is you never win. You are correct in that you will lose sometimes, but I'm talking about your claim that you WILL lose.

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

The point is you can't make statements like "you know as an absolute fact that you won't always lose." Statements like that are dangerous -- very dangerous. Maybe there should be a "black box warning" on all casino games that says "Warning: you could lose it all playing this game"?

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Yes, I can make statements like that because they are true. No one loses all the time. All it takes is getting two pair one time playing JOB to refute the claim of never winning.

This is the point of discussion:

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Originally Posted by arcimede$

Your claim is you never win. You are correct in that you will lose sometimes, but I'm talking about your claim that you WILL lose.

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But what I said, and I stand by it is is this:

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

I have said many times that I expect nothing once my money is in the machine. To me it's money lost. It is money out of my control. It is money in the hands of the RNG. I "play" it as best I can but I live with no illusions that the RNG will cooperate with the cards I hold and draw or that the RNG respects proper strategy.

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Sure I might win. But I do not expect any wins.

Once again you are lying to yourself. If you "expected" to lose every time you play, why would you ever play? It would make no sense. You are ignoring that you know from previous experience you will win sometimes, maybe today, maybe not. But there is a chance you will win. Hence, you are not expecting to lose. You are just preparing yourself mentally for that higher probability situation. Why not just say you have a chance of winning but a better chance of losing and quit lying to yourself.

Alan, I think you and arcimede$ have a different interpretation of "expected"

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Originally Posted by a2a3dseddie

Alan, I think you and arcimede$ have a different interpretation of "expected"

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Absolutely. And this different interpretation is similar to the interpretation of the phrase "no house advantage" when referring to the odds bets on come and passline bets in craps.

Mathematically there is "no house advantage" meaning the odds bet is paid off at true odds. But in simple English the house has the advantage on the bet and is more likely to win it. I learned about this distinction "the hard way" (so to speak) on another news group years ago.

I have to admit mathematicians have their own language which is different and common words have two meanings. But again this is what gets people into trouble -- when you use the "mathematician's definition" vs. the "common language definition." I use this example to show it:

I am at a $25 craps table and a new player walks up with a single $100 and asks the dealer "how do I play?" The dealer says "put $25 (the minimum bet) on the passline." The new player does that. And the shooter throws the dice and the come-out roll shows a point of 4.

Now the dealer says "bet the odds for $75. It's the best bet on the table. There is no house advantage," the dealer says. And the new player puts his remaining three chips behind the passline bet as odds.

The shooter now goes on a great run throwing 5s, 6s, 8s, 9s and 10s and repeating the numbers -- some of them are repeated several times. Meanwhile the new player stands there, watching everyone else getting paid. And after about 15 minutes the shooter sevens-out without throwing a winner 4. The dealer sweeps away the passline bet and the odds. The player's $100 is gone.

As the new player walks away from the table he says to the dealer "I thought you said that was the best bet on the table? I thought you said it had no house advantage?"

That was a critical lesson. A bet that has no house advantage also means no player advantage, but in the game of craps the house is still more likely to win it.

I once lost 20 hands of blackjack in a row without even pushing a hand. I switched tables (I know it doesn't make a difference) twice during that bad run of cards.

I think I hold the blackjack string of losses record. At the old Sahara when they had $1 blackjack, I lost 25 hands in a row. Even when I had 20 the dealer had 21. Even the pit boss came over to say he was sorry. I hate the game with a passion.