Confirmation bias at its best.Quote:
Originally Posted by slingshot
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Confirmation bias at its best.Quote:
Originally Posted by slingshot
Well, I have finished my postings. Thanks, Alan for all the insights to the Vegas scene. All my friends continually talk about planning to go there and I have oft considered. I will stay here- having experienced, thru your forum, the ins and outs of Vegas. Also, my friends went there and spent all their money just to say they'd been there. LOL.
Silly nonsense. I'm saying that the randomness is no different than it was the last time you played. You could have stood up and turned one complete circle and the result would be the hands will still be random.Quote:
Originally Posted by slingshot
That's right it's random. The expected return is also random hence the bell curve. Sitting to play even at a positive expectation machine will only give you random results. So why not take the money and run when you have it? That randomness does not mean you will win at a positive expectation game. You are trying to turn apples (expected return) into oranges (actual results) and it won't work. Alchemy is bogus too.Quote:
Originally Posted by arcimede$
Works for me as I keep making money.
Worked for me.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
jbjb and arcimede$ I'm glad it works for you. But what is it that works for you? That you are playing a positive expectation game or that you quit when ahead?
Very simply: it's not the game that makes you a winner. It's quitting when ahead and leaving with profits that makes you a winner.
If I played the games you do, even if i played the exact same way i do on my machines, I'd lose money. Playing the ones I do, I make money
No. The game does not make you the winner. What makes you a winner is deciding to cash out. Random games are not ATMs. Just stop it.Quote:
Originally Posted by jbjb
Again, take the multipliers of my games and I'll lose money. There are no if, ands or buts about it. Believe what you want, but those are the facts.
Same here.Quote:
Originally Posted by jbjb
Do the multipliers make you win or does your knowledge of how to bet makes you win?Quote:
Originally Posted by jbjb
You said you win because of multipliers. I think you said this because you play Ultimate X and abandoned multipliers. Well, if the multipliers do not show you won't play, will you? Is that a decision you make or is that a decision that the machine makes for you because it is a positive expectation game? My point is the game is still positive expectation even when the multipliers do not show up but it is your decision when to play that allows you to win. It is your decision that makes you a winner -- not the game.
And so it is with those who quit a session when showing a profit. It is their decision that makes them win -- not any RNG positive expectation formula or program that makes them win.
If YOU want to credit the machine with your win, well then, good for you.
This is the most twisted up thing I've read in a while....is it safe to say you do not believe in AP (excluding poker & blackjack)?Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Quite the contrary. I believe in making advantage plays. But it is the player who makes the plays and decides when the play is available. It is not the game or the machine.Quote:
Originally Posted by RS__
What makes an advantage player in blackjack? I don't play blackjack but I am thinking it's the ability to count cards.
What makes an advantage player in roulette? Again I don't play but I am thinking it's the ability to detect a bias.
What makes an advantage player in Ultimate X? It's looking for abandoned multipliers.
What makes an advantage player in live poker? It's the ability to do the math on draws, read other players.
What makes an advantage player in craps? It's the ability to influence the dice.
What makes an advantage player in video poker? It's the knowledge of the proper draws and strategy and playing the best games.
But it all comes down to some ability that the player has. It is never because of a game or a machine and its rules or program.
And a vital tool is knowing when to walk away.
Does a blackjack player keep playing when the count is against him? No. He walks away.
In video poker do you know that winning hands will continue? I don't know how you do that. So when I have a big profit I walk away.
In craps Saturday night I thought I had an advantage over the game. My throws were targeted and performed great. But did I think I could do that forever? No. So when I had a big profit I walked away.
You know what's silly? Sitting at a machine until you're too tired, or too hungry, or about to piss in your pants because you think the machine will make you a winner. The machine doesn't make you a winner. Your knowledge of the game and how you play makes you a winner.
First of all, let's just assume that you will be using proper strategy for a game....that's a given.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Of course "the machine" is not going to make you a winner (unless it's something like FPDW, or a machine where the current state is +EV [UX w/ multipliers, high meter]).
If a VP player doesn't "know that winning hands will continue", what about a blackjack player? A poker player? It's ridiculous to think & claim just because you aren't absolutely certain a winning hand "will continue", that you don't have an advantage or that you should not continue to play (with an advantage).
If I paid you 10:1 on a coin flip, would you play? Of course you would -- you'd play as much as possible! But -- you aren't certain that you'll win. Coin flip - easy example. Everyone knows the odds of a coin flip and that if you're paid greater than 1:1 you have an advantage. VP is a bit different, since many people don't know the odds and what they need to get an advantage. Add in variance and all of a sudden "if you don't know winning hands will continue [you should quit]"....right?
You lost me here:
First you say the machine is not going to make you a winner and then you say unless it's something like....Quote:
Originally Posted by RS__
Sorry.
Unless you play those games the right away and you get the cards you are hoping to get you are not going to win.
The machine and the game do not make you win.
If it's a +EV game, the machine makes you a winner.
If the machine is a -EV game, then you gotta add something else in to make it +EV (ie: promotion).
The machine makes you a winner?Quote:
Originally Posted by RS__
So a stupid player will automatically win if he sits at a +EV game?
We will never agree.
Playing a positive game.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
No, no, no, no, no and no. I happen to be ahead quite often when I quit because I am playing a positive game. See the difference? I could go to the casino and pre-determine I will quit after X amount of time or Y number of hands. It does not matter. I will still end up ahead many times because the games are positive, not because I stopped at any particular point in time. Yes, you will also end up ahead many times on negative games, just not as far ahead or as often.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
That's not what I said. I'm basing this off of the person already playing the game properly. That should be a given.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Playing the proper strategy alone is not enough to make someone a winner at a -EV game.