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10-18-2018, 08:02 AM
regnis

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dan Druff

Between all the trolling, there are actually some interesting discussions here.

When he walks into a casino, he wants to play games for fun, and not be bogged down by odds, paytables, etc. APs have to constantly be concerned about this stuff, and it cooks a lot of the "fun" out of the game (aside from the fun of showing a profit).

To me this is a key point. Alan gambles for entertainment. An AP does not have that luxury. Therefore, there is a different approach that neither seems to be able to recognize. Before I played craps professionally it was my biggest form of entertainment. When it became my job, the entertainment value faded. I couldn't make crazy parlays and wildly press numbers. It took a lot of the fun out of it. On a good hand I admit I still made "bad bets", but not nearly as often.

The same goes for horses. I never met a race I didn't like and that is the entertainment value. Now, I limit my bets and pick my spots unless I just want to have some fun and throw around a few hundred one afternoon. But I used to play 14 tracks on a Saturday--now I concentrate on 3 or 4. It isn't as much fun.

APs don't seem to understand that someone gambling for entertainment is not concerned with EV and the best bets and doing everything mathematically perfect. A guy sucks at golf and shoots a 120 but he is having fun. A guy goes to the casino and plays a slot with a bad pay table and he just hopes to get lucky. The AP does neither. Two completely different approaches due to two different objectives. Why can't we all just deal with that?
10-18-2018, 08:06 AM
kewlJ

Quote:

Originally Posted by Moses

BJTF once had so many bullshitters it makes a person begin to question the validation of Norm's products. Is that whacked too? I must give KJ credit as he has a handle on those guys.

I think I do have a pretty good BS detector. But you know what....I rarely call people out on it. Surely everyone has heard me say "It doesn't take that much to figure out who knows what they are talking about and who is just talking". :rolleyes: Well, I identify many members of various sites that I believe "are just talking" (full of shit), but I rarely call people out on it because that is not my job. And anyone coming to these sites has to take some of that responsibility to figure out who is legit and knows what they are talking about.

But there have been 3 instances that I have called out members as 'frauds' because their stories and bullshit were so elaborate, they served to easily mislead players and other members. This Rob Singer on this site is the 3rd of these. The first was T3, who much like Singer, used fancy phrases and alternative math, to muddy the waters just enough that it ropes in unsuspecting players and members. When you see that happening, I believe legitimate AP's have not only a right, but a responsibility to call out "bullshit".

And me doing so, resulted in my banning at a blackjack site and by extension at WoV. AND I would do it again under those circumstances. The reason I would do it again, is because of the second case. The members handle is Flash, later changed to ZenMaster Flash. He claims to be a 20 year professional blackjack player, but that is not true. He has played blackjack, maybe at an advantage....maybe not, plus many other casino games, craps, roulette, horseracing, sportsbetting….all as a losing player, for 20+ years since his retirement from his fulltime career.

So he claims to be a 20+ year professional player and charges new player to mentor them. Lots of people have done this over the years. Flash sort of follows in the steps of Lawrence Revere, who as he was teaching players for a fee, used to remove cards from the deck (just as the casinos of his time did) so the players needed more training and would come back for more paid lessons. Flash did this by means of misinformation, that only the count that he was teaching was capable of showing a profit.

So anyway, I ignored Flashes scam and only mildly called him out, partially because of the consequences of calling out the first guy. I ignored it even after several new young players that had "trained" with Flash were so screwed up and had lost so much that they went to an acquaintance...a known successful worldwide player, who had to completely re-train them. :rolleyes:

And then the story broke about Flash's robbery. Flash had convinced several of his trainees to combine bankrolls and partner with him. And low and behold, Flash was robbed of this substantial bankroll. Friends that know the situation are certain Flash lost the bankroll playing craps and covered it up with the robbery. Shades of Wizard of nothing. Not the same scam, but on the same criminality, preditory level. So like I said, legitimate players have not only a right, but a responsibility to call out the worst of this shit.
10-18-2018, 08:33 AM
Moses

Nice post KJ. Rob has some style and humor to his posts. I think he just loves get under a certain few peoples skin. Why? Because he can?

All of what you said is enlightening and Norm just looks the other way. The one common denominator is you mess with Flash or T3 and it's ban city. Midwest Player seems to know more about the number of my bans than I do. But the result was from standing up to Flash and his "legions" of followers which are various handles or puppets. Isn't it ironic they disapeared about this same time as Flash. FWIW, I could care less about the bans. Those tye of people just. piss. me. off.
10-18-2018, 08:34 AM
Alan Mendelson

Dan this is absolutely wrong:

I'm saying that you have stated many times that you doubt APs, and that you doubt the usefulness of a +EV situation.

It seems that, the way you see it, immediate results are all that matters. If you play a big-time -EV machine and luck into winning, you believe you made a smart decision, and you seem to feel APs made a dumb decision playing +EV games if they end up losing.

What I doubted was kewlj's statement that he lost $8800 and had the best day for accumulating EV. It was a whacky statement then and it's a whacky statement now. Of course I look for EXPECTED VALUE. When I play with a promotion I'm using EXPECTED VALUE but for heavens sake Dan are you really believing you can bank EV for a future day?

And if I play a +EV situation and lost then I lost. There's none of this hocus pokus about banking EV for another day.

Many times I've been in a +EV situation such as when I only used free play (what's more +EV than free play?) and lost it. I didn't bank anything. A loss is a loss.

What I reject is AP creative accounting and gobbledygook.
10-18-2018, 08:43 AM
Alan Mendelson

Other people have already said that the website Mike sold for big money is WOO. The WOV site came in the package deal. I spoke with Mike about his websites and value and marketing. I will not reveal our discussion, but I will say WOO has the traffic and the value.
10-18-2018, 08:48 AM
MisterV

As I understand it, the notion of EV is most valuable when analyzing expectation over the long run.

Those (such as alan) who dismiss the relevance of the long run to gambling will not be able to accept this idea as a verity.
10-18-2018, 08:57 AM
Rob.Singer

There is no such thing as playing a vp machine for 5 hours today and expecting to come out ahead because of 5 extra credits for a full house. The same goes for those idiots supposedly expecting to lose because the full house pays 5 credits less. 100.2% vs. 99.8% makes virtually no difference over 3500 hands, and anyone who lives by "long term theory" will simply play off any extra credits they receive from the full house before they leave anyway. It is nothing but a BS way of being able to claim "hey guys....I collected a TON of EV (aka, phantom bucks) for my efforts today, and we all KNOW I'll be fine tomorrow because the math says I'm Due!"

This thing about Mike and his sale of WoO: nobody knows anything about the real contract other than how the foreigners still own his soul. But the point about his being a failed AP rings very, very true. People question me all the time about how if my strategy makes me so much money, then why not play it day and night, 365 days a year? Well, if Mike sells AP theory and supposedly practices what he preaches according to many of the sheep on his forum, then when financial problems struck, why not just ramp up the level of money-making AP plays? Maybe he should have consulted with kew :) After all, all the AP's here win a the time, year after year, right? They have super special super secret plays, correct?

Was Mike that bad of a long-term planner? Did his row with kew cost him??
10-18-2018, 09:04 AM
Alan Mendelson

Quote:

Originally Posted by MisterV

As I understand it, the notion of EV is most valuable when analyzing expectation over the long run.

Those (such as alan) who dismiss the relevance of the long run to gambling will not be able to accept this idea as a verity.

Let me make this clear: I'll play the best paytables available and I play craps at Red Rock because they pay more on place 4 and place 10. But you either win or lose when you play. I don't fool myself by saying "gee, I lost today but I had a lot of positive expected value." That kind of thinking is what I reject. You can't pay bills or deposit in a bank "positive expected value." So stop the BS.
10-18-2018, 09:17 AM
jbjb

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

Quote:

Originally Posted by MisterV

As I understand it, the notion of EV is most valuable when analyzing expectation over the long run.

Those (such as alan) who dismiss the relevance of the long run to gambling will not be able to accept this idea as a verity.

Let me make this clear: I'll play the best paytables available and I play craps at Red Rock because they pay more on place 4 and place 10. But you either win or lose when you play. I don't fool myself by saying "gee, I lost today but I had a lot of positive expected value." That kind of thinking is what I reject. You can't pay bills or deposit in a bank "positive expected value." So stop the BS.

And yet, as explained before, this is EXACTLY what the casinois do. And their bills are paid pretty easily!

It's Alan's mentality that keeps him from being a winning gambler.
10-18-2018, 09:21 AM
Rob.Singer

Quote:

Originally Posted by jbjb

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

Quote:

Originally Posted by MisterV

As I understand it, the notion of EV is most valuable when analyzing expectation over the long run.

Those (such as alan) who dismiss the relevance of the long run to gambling will not be able to accept this idea as a verity.

Let me make this clear: I'll play the best paytables available and I play craps at Red Rock because they pay more on place 4 and place 10. But you either win or lose when you play. I don't fool myself by saying "gee, I lost today but I had a lot of positive expected value." That kind of thinking is what I reject. You can't pay bills or deposit in a bank "positive expected value." So stop the BS.

And yet, as explained before, this is EXACTLY what the casinois do. And their bills are paid pretty easily!

It's Alan's mentality that keeps him from being a winning gambler.

And this is EXACTLY what casinos do every time they lure in as many ap's as possible all over town with their lucrative-sounding promotions, when they know most of that promo's cash will come directly from those people.

And casinos seem to easily be doing fine.

This is why these ap's around here cannot post any other way but as anonymous cowards. It's their mentality that keep them from being winning gamblers.
10-18-2018, 09:26 AM
Bill Yung

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

Other people have already said that the website Mike sold for big money is WOO. The WOV site came in the package deal. I spoke with Mike about his websites and value and marketing.

Why then piss around on a nothing forum, on which there isn't even any more talk of things on the WOO site - as if there ever really was - and, have to "travel the world" (relative shitholes like Germany) to keep up some sort of idiotic image that most have never heard of or care about, if you made your millions, want to focus on your kids, and really enjoy what life has to offer in retirement? Mike is the biggest crank going. EVEN IF HE DID GET THE 2.3 MIL. He is a nobody now even on his own forum. How hard-up can you get for fame and fortune?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

I will not reveal our discussion, but I will say WOO has the traffic and the value.

Did you sign another of the Wizard's mythical NDA's? I learned early on in life that, whenever someone wants you to keep a secret, or you just somehow think that you should keep it to yourself, then the secret isn't to help you.

Come on Alan, if you really want to help yourself, then don't fart around with, "Oh, I know this but can't say it." Otherwise, you truly are the opposite of the AP's, what keeps also them going with the casino garbage.
10-18-2018, 09:31 AM
Bill Yung

Gambling forums, no matter which, really are stuff of no heart, no courage, and no brain.
10-18-2018, 09:33 AM
Alan Mendelson

Sorry Bill but when I have a private phone conversation I keep it private.

Anyone can look on the Internet to find the traffic and value of any website. WOO has the traffic and value and there's no secret there.
10-18-2018, 09:37 AM
Alan Mendelson

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rob.Singer

Quote:

Originally Posted by jbjb

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

Let me make this clear: I'll play the best paytables available and I play craps at Red Rock because they pay more on place 4 and place 10. But you either win or lose when you play. I don't fool myself by saying "gee, I lost today but I had a lot of positive expected value." That kind of thinking is what I reject. You can't pay bills or deposit in a bank "positive expected value." So stop the BS.

And yet, as explained before, this is EXACTLY what the casinois do. And their bills are paid pretty easily!

It's Alan's mentality that keeps him from being a winning gambler.

And this is EXACTLY what casinos do every time they lure in as many ap's as possible all over town with their lucrative-sounding promotions, when they know most of that promo's cash will come directly from those people.

And casinos seem to easily be doing fine.

This is why these ap's around here cannot post any other way but as anonymous cowards. It's their mentality that keep them from being winning gamblers.

Jbjb let me be blunt. You are confused.

Casinos don't bank EV. Casinos have EV in the present. And it's only in the present. Some days they lose but most days they win.

There is no bullshit on 10K financial reports filed with the NYSE that say "we lost $88-million in the third quarter but we had our best +EV quarter in years."
10-18-2018, 09:43 AM
Bill Yung

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

Sorry Bill but when I have a private phone conversation I keep it private.

Anyone can look on the Internet to find the traffic and value of any website. WOO has the traffic and value and there's no secret there.

MrV won't see, you won't talk, and the Wizard won't hear. Is there a better reason for how we got to where we are?
10-18-2018, 09:59 AM
Alan Mendelson

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bill Yung

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

Sorry Bill but when I have a private phone conversation I keep it private.

Anyone can look on the Internet to find the traffic and value of any website. WOO has the traffic and value and there's no secret there.

MrV won't see, you won't talk, and the Wizard won't hear. Is there a better reason for how we got to where we are?

To be perfectly honest, what business is it of yours what he sold his company for and what he got paid?
10-18-2018, 10:16 AM
AxelWolf

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

Sorry Bill but when I have a private phone conversation I keep it private.

Anyone can look on the Internet to find the traffic and value of any website. WOO has the traffic and value and there's no secret there.

But not PM's(notice that stands for private messages) and or your friend's private life. Glad to see you have standards when it comes to phone conversations.
10-18-2018, 10:17 AM
The Boz

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rob.Singer

Quote:

Originally Posted by jbjb

And yet, as explained before, this is EXACTLY what the casinois do. And their bills are paid pretty easily!

It's Alan's mentality that keeps him from being a winning gambler.

And this is EXACTLY what casinos do every time they lure in as many ap's as possible all over town with their lucrative-sounding promotions, when they know most of that promo's cash will come directly from those people.

And casinos seem to easily be doing fine.

This is why these ap's around here cannot post any other way but as anonymous cowards. It's their mentality that keep them from being winning gamblers.

Jbjb let me be blunt. You are confused.

Casinos don't bank EV. Casinos have EV in the present. And it's only in the present. Some days they lose but most days they win.

There is no bullshit on 10K financial reports filed with the NYSE that say "we lost $88-million in the third quarter but we had our best +EV quarter in years."

Yes publicly traded casinos do say that, in slightly different words. You will see reports where they admit they had a bad quarter because of baccarat loses from large players. These players win or lose enough to change balance sheets. Yet they still continue to accept their bets and pamper them with anything they need. Why do you think that is Alan?
10-18-2018, 10:18 AM
BadBeet

We are all gamblers here right? The difference is some justify their play by being AP's and others by being results oriented.

I don't think Alan or anyone else on here will consciously sit down at a 7/5 JOB machine and play. I think it is safe to say that all of us would not play a 7/5 JOB machine but would definitely play a 9/6 JOB.

The difference is this. The "AP" player looks at it this way. They gamble. They make the best EV decision they can make (proper holds, best EV games). If they place their bet with the best possible EV decision win or lose, they made the best EV decision and are happy with the play. The way an AP thinks is if they place a bet on that 7/5 JOB machine, even if they win, they lost EV.

Other gamblers will make those same best even in a +EV envrionment but they will be results orientated. They could be playing a +EV game and lose. While they lost, even if it is $100, the AP player will see it as still winning as they were playing a +EV game. If this gambler continued to play this game they may come out ahead IN THE LONG RUN, but that single session they would see it as losing.

It is all just different ways of looking at it.
10-18-2018, 10:25 AM
Alan Mendelson

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Boz

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rob.Singer

And this is EXACTLY what casinos do every time they lure in as many ap's as possible all over town with their lucrative-sounding promotions, when they know most of that promo's cash will come directly from those people.

And casinos seem to easily be doing fine.

This is why these ap's around here cannot post any other way but as anonymous cowards. It's their mentality that keep them from being winning gamblers.

Jbjb let me be blunt. You are confused.

Casinos don't bank EV. Casinos have EV in the present. And it's only in the present. Some days they lose but most days they win.

There is no bullshit on 10K financial reports filed with the NYSE that say "we lost $88-million in the third quarter but we had our best +EV quarter in years."

Yes publicly traded casinos do say that, in slightly different words. You will see reports where they admit they had a bad quarter because of baccarat loses from large players. These players win or lose enough to change balance sheets. Yet they still continue to accept their bets and pamper them with anything they need. Why do you think that is Alan?

Show me a casino that used the language (terminology) that kewlj used. Show me any company that says they lost money but had the best +EV day ever.

In other words stop trying to twist around the gobbledygook. It's bullshit.

Casinos will have losing days but they don't say it was their best day for +EV. That is the bullshit.

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