Covid-19 by the numbers

A couple weeks ago you would tell me that a whole state shutting down would of been fantasy.
Heck, Boz was in here blasting Italy that they fucked up and will pay for shutting down the country.
It is not a stretch to think that checkpoints will be installed in the near future.

When MC started the first thread calling it a scam I wasn't so sure.
My first post about it even stated that it could be a scam but it looks pretty serious or real.
I have always thought it doesn't matter if it is a scam or not.
The problem is shutting down the whole country.

You are trying to tell me that the food chain will not be affected but that can't be true.
Farmers don't catch the virus?
They already basically closed the Mexican Border and the Farmers are going to have problems with the upcoming harvest.
Apparently they need the migrant workers to pick the food.

The Democrats or at least MSNBC was just pushing this idea that we need to test every single individual in America.
This is because studies have shown in Italy and Iceland that this is the only way to find out who is positive.
Positive with no signs of infection.
So when they know who has it they can quarantine all individuals.
Without testing the whole population they claim they will never get a handle on it.

My point is that all Americans will not voluntarily test.
You can't lock down America without enforcing it.
Perhaps I am wrong but it certainly isn't fantasy to think that checkpoints could be coming soon.
They have already deployed the National Guard for medical purposes.
I am sure you never thought that Nevada would close every Casino.

You can't just let us all run around to the grocery store and hope we don't infect each other.
If your going to lock it down you have to lock everything down, test every citizen and ration all supplies.
That's basically Un-American though.

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Originally Posted by mcap

California and Washington are apparently fighting over who gets the Navy hospital ship sent to them! Newsom getting all hysterical to try and steal the ship that was likely headed for Washington! Personally I’d rather save Washington. It’s almost like this was inflicted on America to punish primarily extremely liberal states, 8k of 14k confirmed cases between NY/CA/WSH with New Jersey next.

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Good Point!
It is clear that it is because of SJWs, homosexuals, acceptance of 11 year old transgenders and allowing women to invade the NHL!!

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Originally Posted by accountinquestion

You realize that in the middle of a corona outbreak if you have a heart attack you're fucking triaged and shit? You have to wait around cuz you're no longer special and there isn't just an ICU bed sitting around. Not to mention any surgery for months unless absolutely needed. The medical staff is going to be severely stressed.

What are the deaths you are expecting here?

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Basically, if you prioritize the avoidance of death by covid-19 you probably increase death numbers from other causes (such as death by complications of an untreated heart attack caused by treatment of covid-19 taking priority for example). If that number is bigger than the number of covid-19 lives saved as a result of giving it highest medical priority then it was a mistake to give covid-19 this priority. State-wide lock downs are part of the things that are required to minimize covid-19 deaths, but it makes the death numbers from other causes grow (suicide from loss of employment, substance abuse death from loss of employment, etc.). Those death numbers need to be smaller than the covid-19 lives saved from giving it prioritization or this whole lock down thing is pointless. If the non-covid-19 death numbers turn out to be smaller that's great. The question again is how confident are the people making these lock down decisions that this is indeed the case ? It seems to me that figuring out the number of non-covid 19 deaths caused by covid-19 death minimization (via lockdowns and medical priority) is intractable due to its complexity and yet they are assuming the number of these deaths are less than the lives saved by covid-19 death minimization.

So many variables.
Cabin Fever.
Increase in Child/Domestic Abuse.

Did you know that a baby is born in America every 8 seconds?
Some people think house arrest will cause more pregnancies.
They claim the hospitals are already near collapse.
Running out of supplies and man/woman power.
People are just going to have to learn how to deliver babies at home.
These are skills we lost long ago.

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Originally Posted by accountinquestion

kewlj is being dramatic calling this doomsday stuff. I feel no threat by this thing, yet I still am practicing very strong social distancing. Doomsday doesn't seem like the right word.

The mortality rate is kept a lot lower when there are machines to hook people up to. The Diamond Princess will be low because everyone was able to get the high quality medical care that insured people expect to get. This won't be the case if you let this thing run its natural course. If people are still in ICU then it is crazy to compare those numbers.

It also isn't just the death rate. Our medical system will break down and this will impact anyone who needs the hospital. No elective surgeries. Doctors having to make a call on who gets treated and who doesn't. People who paid for insurance won't be able to even use it.

Imagine that, paying for insurance all your life then finally wanting to use it and hearing 'sorry - can't'.

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would one also want to factor in the fact that people in poor health usually don't go on cruises?

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Originally Posted by tableplay

Will the # of non-Covid-19 deaths (dental infection,armed combat gun shot wound(s), suicide, unintentional overdoses, unarmed combat, panic car crashes etc.) as a result of the shutdown be less than the # of deaths from covid-19 resulting from if there had not been a shut down ? Apparently the experts believe that's the case. Either that, or they didn't think things through when they decided to shut down the entire fucking planet.

A much more pressing question than this is: How the fuck is Zenking going to make a living now that the casinos and everything else is shut down ?

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Since he is a cash guy no doubt holding more money than he will to be able to use, I'm going to say at this point Zenking is in a whole lot better position than most Americans. However, I'm pretty sure there's less than zero zen at this point.

For now I'm still trying to pay my bills. We'll see what happens. The most lib states are the most draconian in response to this "emergency". They love power and control.

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Originally Posted by tableplay

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Originally Posted by accountinquestion

You realize that in the middle of a corona outbreak if you have a heart attack you're fucking triaged and shit? You have to wait around cuz you're no longer special and there isn't just an ICU bed sitting around. Not to mention any surgery for months unless absolutely needed. The medical staff is going to be severely stressed.

What are the deaths you are expecting here?

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Basically, if you prioritize the avoidance of death by covid-19 you probably increase death numbers from other causes (such as death by complications of an untreated heart attack caused by treatment of covid-19 taking priority for example). If that number is bigger than the number of covid-19 lives saved as a result of giving it highest medical priority then it was a mistake to give covid-19 this priority. State-wide lock downs are part of the things that are required to minimize covid-19 deaths, but it makes the death numbers from other causes grow (suicide from loss of employment, substance abuse death from loss of employment, etc.). Those death numbers need to be smaller than the covid-19 lives saved from giving it prioritization or this whole lock down thing is pointless. If the non-covid-19 death numbers turn out to be smaller that's great. The question again is how confident are the people making these lock down decisions that this is indeed the case ? It seems to me that figuring out the number of non-covid 19 deaths caused by covid-19 death minimization (via lockdowns and medical priority) is intractable due to its complexity and yet they are assuming the number of these deaths are less than the lives saved by covid-19 death minimization.

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You've already downplayed what this virus does so your reasoning is off.

When the hospital is severely overrun, it won't be just bed shortage, it will be a ton of quarantined staff. They have to wear those weird suits if they can. If you have an emergency medical situations that is easily treated then it won't be easily treated. Large portions of the staff will be sick. Heart attack patients will be triaged and so forth. Totally different world and the more we ignore it, the worse it'd be for months. You're also asking an exceptional amount of healthcare workers. 20 hour days and so forth in horribly uncomfortable suits to try and not get sick. Just hell on earth. Not sure what the reasoning is that there would be less deaths ignoring this.

American food supply is not in danger. We have so much shit floating around. America actually exports food. You might not get your brand for a couple months but everyone will be just fine. I've never seen the media suggest as much or anyone else.

The problem isn't the food supply.
The problem is the Chain breaking down which it is already having problems.
Overworked Truck Drivers with some Truck Stops Closing Down.
The Truck Drivers are having trouble getting meals.
Oil Prices are crippling the market.
You may be right and we have nothing to worry about but we aren't far from total collapse.
Having the Supply is one thing but getting it to every store is another and we are on a first come first serve basis.
With no Limits on how much you can buy.

This is just the beginning.
Talk to us in a couple weeks when it really gets out of hand.
Think about how things were on March 5th.
Oh yeah... nothing to worry about though... just stay at home and play Nintendo!

That is just us in America... things are far worse in other countries.

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Originally Posted by quahaug

For now I'm still trying to pay my bills. We'll see what happens. The most lib states are the most draconian in response to this "emergency". They love power and control.

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I saw footage of the liberal leaders all having a cocktail party celebrating their new power over having people stay at home. 1000s of them in Cali. I believe they called it the "power and control quarantine ball of 2020"

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Originally Posted by accountinquestion

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Originally Posted by quahaug

For now I'm still trying to pay my bills. We'll see what happens. The most lib states are the most draconian in response to this "emergency". They love power and control.

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I saw footage of the liberal leaders all having a cocktail party celebrating their new power over having people stay at home. 1000s of them in Cali. I believe they called it the "power and control quarantine ball of 2020"

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Now you are just trolling.
Quahaug is like Tableplay.
These two don't get into the mire like the rest of us.
They really don't deserve it.
Blast away if you must but I am done trying to be civil with you.

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Originally Posted by tableplay

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Originally Posted by smurgerburger

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Originally Posted by tableplay

Will the # of non-Covid-19 deaths (dental infection,armed combat gun shot wound(s), suicide, unintentional overdoses, unarmed combat, panic car crashes etc.) as a result of the shutdown be less than the # of deaths from covid-19 resulting from if there had not been a shut down ? Apparently the experts believe that's the case. Either that, or they didn't think things through when they decided to shut down the entire fucking planet.

A much more pressing question than this is: How the fuck is Zenking going to make a living now that the casinos and everything else is shut down ?

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Are these like Dr. Drew experts, or experts whose expertise is relevant to the matter under discussion?

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These would be the group of people (epidemiologists, security experts, psychologists) who advised the governor (Newsom) to order a state-level lockdown of California. I'm asking if this group did calculations on the projected # of non-Covid-19 deaths as a result of the lockdown and compared it to the projected # of covid-19 deaths if the state lockdown had not taken place. I would think that the governor would want to minimize overall deaths as opposed to minimizing only covid-19 deaths.

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On the bright side, I imagine that deaths from the common cold and flu will be significantly lower since we're more isolated from one another and washing our hands more.

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Originally Posted by monet

So many variables.

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Yes. Yet here they are locking things down, believing they know all the variables when it is actually intractable.

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Originally Posted by accountinquestion

You've already downplayed what this virus does so your reasoning is off.

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How have I down played what this virus does ? Stating that something might be bigger than something else doesn't mean that the something else is not significant. Love the non Stop strawmen coming from you.

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Originally Posted by tableplay

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Originally Posted by monet

So many variables.

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Yes. Yet here they are locking things down, believing they know all the variables when it is actually intractable.

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lol did you see NY?
Cuomo was fumbling all over the place with words.
Words are important he says and this is not shelter in place.
However, we will force you to close or ticket you if we have to.
I am sure Nevada will be closing very soon.

Don't worry though... this will all be over in 14 to 30 days lol lol lol

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Originally Posted by monet

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Originally Posted by accountinquestion

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Originally Posted by quahaug

For now I'm still trying to pay my bills. We'll see what happens. The most lib states are the most draconian in response to this "emergency". They love power and control.

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I saw footage of the liberal leaders all having a cocktail party celebrating their new power over having people stay at home. 1000s of them in Cali. I believe they called it the "power and control quarantine ball of 2020"

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Now you are just trolling.
Quahaug is like Tableplay.
These two don't get into the mire like the rest of us.
They really don't deserve it.
Blast away if you must but I am done trying to be civil with you.

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haha. It is ok. Not sure why that statement triggered you. Tell me the difference between California lockdown and the one in Texas. It is very minor. Schools and restaurants shutdown in TX. Oh, maybe the non-essential businesses aren't, but that isn't a huge difference. I wasn't going to put politics into it, but I couldn't help but respond.

It has nothing to do with the right/left at this stage. If you want to think it is a commie coup of some sort then feel free.

Just the idea that the few guys at the top go to bed at night with a smile because they're able to exert their "power" shutting things down shows a lack of understanding of how people work. Sorry.

Most likely because liberal states of NYC/Cali will have more mass transportation, international travel, and thus likely got it sooner. Conservative governors could resist, but they know what would happen when this thing comes down full-force.

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Originally Posted by tableplay

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Originally Posted by accountinquestion

You've already downplayed what this virus does so your reasoning is off.

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How have I down played what this virus does ? Stating that something might be bigger than something else doesn't mean that the something else is not significant. Love the non Stop strawmen coming from you.

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You completely ignored the fact that thet healthcare system will be in total shambles. The economy will still go to shit. You searched around for a few instances of where someone might kill themselves because they couldn't see their coworkers and such. The only reason you'd do that is because you've already committed mentally to a downplaying of the virus. One can see it in your posts.

Tell me these "strawmen" I put up. <crickets>

Also - just the fact that you are having the argument itself is downplaying the virus.
"Why aren't we just ignoring it and letting it play out". That is effectively downplaying it. Nothing to do with strawmen arguments.

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Originally Posted by tableplay

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Originally Posted by accountinquestion

You've already downplayed what this virus does so your reasoning is off.

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How have I down played what this virus does ? Stating that something might be bigger than something else doesn't mean that the something else is not significant. Love the non Stop strawmen coming from you.

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I think some folks are seriously underestimating the ability of the federal government and military to pull off reasonably accurate modeling of outcomes based on variables as they are unveiled.

To think that these are pie-in-the-sky soft models is wishful thinking, which has permeated Americans' general responses regarding this from the beginning. These models have been around for decades, being applied to numerous scenarios just like this.

Monet,

I haven't read all of this thread, so maybe I'm repeating stuff, but have you read that in the two weeks before the market crash, while the Trumpster was downplaying things but panels were meeting on the hill, a bunch of people on both sides of the aisle dumped their stocks prior to the crash? LOL. Georgia senator dumped $3 million and bought disaster-servicing stock, Feinstein dumped $6 million, others dumped a million plus. I wonder how our guy in the White House did? Think he dumped some stock?

Good to know people are looking out for us, eh?

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Originally Posted by accountinquestion

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Originally Posted by tableplay

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Originally Posted by accountinquestion

You've already downplayed what this virus does so your reasoning is off.

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How have I down played what this virus does ? Stating that something might be bigger than something else doesn't mean that the something else is not significant. Love the non Stop strawmen coming from you.

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You completely ignored the fact that thet healthcare system will be in total shambles. The economy will still go to shit. You searched around for a few instances of where someone might kill themselves because they couldn't see their coworkers and such. The only reason you'd do that is because you've already committed mentally to a downplaying of the virus. One can see it in your posts.

Tell me these "strawmen" I put up. <crickets>

Also - just the fact that you are having the argument itself is downplaying the virus.
"Why aren't we just ignoring it and letting it play out". That is effectively downplaying it. Nothing to do with strawmen arguments.

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Like the strawman I just stated that you responded to just now. I said nothing about the virus being insignificant.
Please quote where I actually made the statement: "Why aren't we just ignoring it and letting it play out"
I remember posting no such statement.

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Originally Posted by redietz

Monet,

I haven't read all of this thread, so maybe I'm repeating stuff, but have you read that in the two weeks before the market crash, while the Trumpster was downplaying things but panels were meeting on the hill, a bunch of people on both sides of the aisle dumped their stocks prior to the crash? LOL. Georgia senator dumped $3 million and bought disaster-servicing stock, Feinstein dumped $6 million, others dumped a million plus. I wonder how our guy in the White House did? Think he dumped some stock?

Good to know people are looking out for us, eh?

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Stop trying to make this a Trump vs Anti-Trump thing.
You do realize they are all crooks looking out for number 1 and their pals right??
Democrat or Republican is a bunch of Bullshit IMO.
Of course I can't blame them.
It is the American way to be greedy and get as much as you can for yourself.
The way of the world has always been the Rich getting Richer exploiting the general masses as slaves of some sort.
That cannot be refuted!?
When has the world not had a small majority at the top and the rest at the bottom?
Even after something like the French Revolution or Revolutions they just resorted right back to the same garbage they were in before the revolt.
You can't change the human condition no matter how much you try.
Evil is in Control until God decides its Over.

Notorious B.I.G. said it best:
Either you're slinging crack rock, or you got a wicked jump shot.
Nobody wants to work for it anymore.
There's no honor in taking the after school job at Mickey D's.
Honor's in the dollar, kid.
So I went the white boy way of slinging crack rock.
I became a stock broker.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kpQtdfmtd6s