regnis, what exactly is a "pick six" anyway? When you said "$44k at the track" that's all I could see from then on.
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regnis, what exactly is a "pick six" anyway? When you said "$44k at the track" that's all I could see from then on.
Pick six -- pick the winners of six races. Very popular bet at racetracks on the east coast.
There are 2 different types of pick 6 wagers. The first, that most race tracks have, is a block of 6 consecutive races. Before the first race of that block of 6 races, you must pick the winners of all six races. You can, of course, use as few or as many horses in each race as you desire. For you mathematicians, if there are ten horses in each race, the cost is simply multiplication--10x10x10 etc. So you have to be more exact in your selections. In this type of pick 6, any or all players that have all 6 winners split the pot.
The Pick 6 that I won is different, in that if more than one person has all 6 winners, there is a small consolation payable to them, but the pot continues to roll over until there is only 1 winner. Now in the late winter early spring, this grew to 3 million at gulfstream park. Monmouth doesn't get that kind of handle to grow like that. So I was the only one to have all 6 winners that day and got the total pool.
Andrew Beyer, one of the most renowned writers in the horse racing industry, calls it the worst bet there is because of the fact that if there are multiple winners you get so little. In that respect, he would be the Arci of horse racing. In the spring, while chasing the 3 million, I hit 13,000, 12,000, and several 8 and 10,000 consolations when I had 6 but was not the only one having 6. So with those and this 44, I am happy to make what, mathematically, is a bad bet.
This is where horse racing is better than casino gambling---I am playing against other gamblers, most of whom are idiots, rather than against the house. So regardless of what the house take is, I am still at an advantage. Of course, believe me, there are plenty of days when I don't have a winner and plenty of losses between the wins. But---wait for it-----loss limits and win goals help to a great extent.
You bring back memories of when my frat brothers and I would go off to Vernon Downs near Syracuse and "box" certain trifectas and perfectas. We got clobbered when Canonero lost the Belmont Stakes.
I had $360 of free play at Harrah's Rincon on Saturday and after dinner with the wife I took off and got to the casino at 11:30pm... with a half hour to spare to download the free play onto my favorite $2 machine. I did okay on that machine playing Aces and Faces and turned my $360 of free play into $1100 which is when I cashed out and decided to use some of it playing on a $5 Aces and Faces machine. I set a "stop loss" so that I would leave the casino with at least $500. But I never got that low. I hit quad aces when the last available credits were played. (See the first picture.)
I had a few more quads that did not require a W2G and also lost a lot but now I had a stop loss of $1,000 and then I got quad aces #2. (See the second photo.)
My stop-loss was now up to $1500 when... yes... quad Aces #3. (See the third photo.)
But look at the third photo carefully. Would this have been $20,000 if I were playing ACE$ BONUS?? Are the Aces in the correct order? The floorperson and I checked the "info screens" on the Ace$ Bonus game but we couldn't find which Ace was the A, the C, the E and S.
With the third quad Aces I raised my stop loss to $2,500 and I took a few hundred dollars from the machine and decided to play a little Double Double Bonus because the progressive was up to $27,000+. I did not hit the royal, but I got quad Kings for $1250 (no photo, didn't bother) and then just a few hands later small quads with a kicker for $4,000.
I came home with $8,500 after playing a few hundred dollars at $2 Royal Aces Bonus just to satisfy a bug about playing that game. I actually got quad 5s ($500) and quad 4s ($800) but that game goes through credits very quickly.
I called it quits and made sure that I came home with $8500. Actually, my "win goal" for leaving was really $8,000 and I had another $500 to play with but it's going towards the wife tax.
And you'll notice none of the so-called "AP's" are saying a thing about this, because it simply does not fit their "play on and on and on until fatigue sets in rather than to set win and loss goals" scenario. In fact, NONE of them could even PLAY at the level you showed with your pictures--not even Frank playing with other people's money, because those type of "winning slugs" are all hype and no action.
That wife tax is a life saver:DQuote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
I had $360 of free play at Harrah's Rincon on Saturday and after dinner with the wife I took off and got to the casino at 11:30pm... with a half hour to spare to download the free play onto my favorite $2 machine. I did okay on that machine playing Aces and Faces and turned my $360 of free play into $1100 which is when I cashed out and decided to use some of it playing on a $5 Aces and Faces machine. I set a "stop loss" so that I would leave the casino with at least $500. But I never got that low. I hit quad aces when the last available credits were played. (See the first picture.)
I had a few more quads that did not require a W2G and also lost a lot but now I had a stop loss of $1,000 and then I got quad aces #2. (See the second photo.)
My stop-loss was now up to $1500 when... yes... quad Aces #3. (See the third photo.)
But look at the third photo carefully. Would this have been $20,000 if I were playing ACE$ BONUS?? Are the Aces in the correct order? The floorperson and I checked the "info screens" on the Ace$ Bonus game but we couldn't find which Ace was the A, the C, the E and S.
With the third quad Aces I raised my stop loss to $2,500 and I took a few hundred dollars from the machine and decided to play a little Double Double Bonus because the progressive was up to $27,000+. I did not hit the royal, but I got quad Kings for $1250 (no photo, didn't bother) and then just a few hands later small quads with a kicker for $4,000.
I came home with $8,500 after playing a few hundred dollars at $2 Royal Aces Bonus just to satisfy a bug about playing that game. I actually got quad 5s ($500) and quad 4s ($800) but that game goes through credits very quickly.
I called it quits and made sure that I came home with $8500. Actually, my "win goal" for leaving was really $8,000 and I had another $500 to play with but it's going towards the wife tax.
Sweet win, Alan! It looks like you are doing well on the VP side of things. Are you currently on the plus side on VP this year so far?
I don't count chickens before... there is still a long time left in this year. ;)Quote:
Originally Posted by Max A Million
Nice job (no Not Jacks or Better LOL) Alan. My wife and I were also there Saturday night playing off our free play. We were at your Aces and Faces game
from about 10pm until about 3am. Sorry I didn't see you. I also had a decent night. I played at the $2 level and came home about $700 ahead and my
wife played at the 50 cent level and came home about $200 ahead. It sure makes the trip better when she wins. Happy wife- Happy life. We like the fact
the Aces and Faces are in the NON Smoking area. Where is the $5 Aces and Faces? Is it in the Hi Limit room?
Blue Skies,
Jim
Yes, Jim, the $5 Aces and Faces are in the high limit room, on the same group of machines where the $5 progressive games are, but the first four machines are only DDB and the Game Kings have the Aces and Faces.
The $2 Aces and Faces machine I play is in the non-smoking area. By the way, I usually play in the row with the game numbered 3116. Machine 3116 is my favorite machine -- hit a $1 royal on it, and I see royals on that machine all the time. Last week another gentleman was on it when I arrived and he was being paid on a 50-cent royal.
This happened Saturday, June 15, at Caesars. $2 Bonus Poker, 7/5 Pay Table. Dealt KQ hearts. I had $1,000 of free play on this trip, and this is where I played it.
So, as I expected Alan returned to Caesars much sooner than he suggested. This relates to the issue of win goals. I've said before that if win goals reduce ones play on negative machines then they might be useful. However, if they instead lead players to return more quickly then the one possible advantage evaporates and one might argue they are worse than worthless, they will lead to more losses over time.
BTW, congrats on another royal.
That was Royal #6 on the year:
$5 Royals (2) one at Caesars, one at Rincon
$2 Royal (1) Caesars
$1 Royal (2) Rincon
25-cent Royal (1) Rincon
The reason I went back this past weekend had nothing to do with win goals, loss limits or any thing in between. I had a $500 shopping spree, plus $1,000 of free play, plus I had a Father's Day event in town. But if you want to hear a whacky story, here it is:
Friday afternoon on the way to Caesars I took a "detour" and went south to Rincon where I swiped my card on any slot machine and got a "bonus" of $410 comp dollars. I took the detour to have $410 comp dollars to use at Caesars. I estimated the cost of the detour at about $20 for gas. I also found that I had $140 of free play, which I played on my usual 8/5 Aces and Faces $2 machine and I hit quad aces for $800 plus some other wins and I cashed out $1050. I immediately raised my "loss limit" to $800 and played the $250 on the $5 Aces and Faces game and hit a straight flush right away for $1250. I pocketed $1240 (tipped $10) and played down the remaining credits to zero and left for Vegas. The detour at Rincon that cost me $20 of gas got me $2040 of cash plus $410 comps from the promotion for the day, plus some other comp dollars/points for the small amount of play I put in.
And I won't tell you about the two quad aces at Caesars on Saturday... that would be too much for a recreational player to have.
Alan, you are experiencing a good run. That leads to a desire to play more, admit it. When you win you are more inclined to return to a casino sooner. If you were losing you might not have thought the time and effort were worth it.
Here's another story. Since they took out my positive game I have been going to the casino twice a month to collect my freeplay. It costs me about $15 for gas to get an average of around $300. I play it through once and so far I haven't had a single quad. We all experience the variance of the game, both good and bad. Don't get confused by variance.
That's true Arc, and I am able to return to the casino more often for recreational play because by "quitting when ahead" I have more recreational dollars available.
Congratulations AGAIN Alan! More negative EV winning & profiting? Another in-your-face to the AP's?
I've only got time for this one post so I'll make it quick. I saw the genius claim good fortune makes you want to play more often, and you intelligently responded with useful words of wisdom that he'll be hard-pressed to find an answer for on the Internet. To further debunk his nonsense, after all the profiting I've been doing AND POSTING PICTURES OF in the past 3 or more months, I wonder how it can possibly be that I just stopped playing until early July!:) Are the AP's ripping their hair out over this ability, or are they going to divorce court or the Dr. offices and local pharmacies much too much to get a handle on reality?
Win goals: What an AP looks for after seeing half his financial life and all of his emotional life--or most of his psychological life and all of his retirement life--suddenly disintegrated before his very eyes.
Life is good....for some :)
See you in a few weeks!
Alan, didn't you have to get ahead first? To get ahead don't you have to beat the ER? How can this be done continually on a random game?Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Yes, Arc, my actual return was greater than the expected return. I was playing Bonus and Aces and Faces and both have an expected return of a bit more than 99%. In my case, my actual return was.... well, it was huge.
You'll have to deal with it, Arc.
No Alan, I don't have to deal with it. It doesn't affect me in the slightest. However, you appear to be in denial that you could ever lose. Maybe I should retrieve some of your old posts on LVA where you continually whined about not hitting royals.
When did I ever express any denial that I could ever lose?Quote:
Originally Posted by arcimede$
If anything, I've said that had I quit when I had a profit, I would not have given back my profits that allowed winning sessions to turn into losing sessions.
Awesome win AGAIN, Alan! I send you much continued success, luck, positive energy, or whatever you want to call it for more financial abundance this year. Keep posting those pictures. It's nice to see what everyone wins.
As far as the number of royals goes... I'm on pace with last year. Six so far this year which is about half of what I had last year. The difference from last year is that this year my losses per session are smaller because I kept to my "loss limits" and I raised my "stop losses" during sessions when I was hitting and beat my initial win goal.
hi Alan,
Took your advice and sat down at your favorite machine (3116) yesterday. No! I didn't win but my wife sat at the machine right next to mine and hit a Royal. Had a great day...Thanks for the info...LOL
hi Alan,
Took your advice and sat down at your favorite machine (3116) yesterday. No! I didn't win but my wife sat at the machine right next to mine and hit a Royal. Had a great day...Thanks for the info...LOL
That row with machine #3116 is a pretty active row... with players and with jackpots. When I played there last weekend a player playing $2 DDB hit quad aces with a kicker for $4,000 on the same machine your wife got the royal. When I can't get on 3116 I sit on the machine that is second from the far right. The machine on the far right is loaded with lots of keno games. The second machine in has Aces and Faces and Royal Aces Bonus. That machine, second from far right, is the machine I got quad aces on FIVE TIMES in just a couple of hours playing Aces and Faces. And its the same machine I hit quad aces on last weekend when I had that small amount of free play before I went up to Vegas.
Now, before anyone says anything about these machines being "hot machines" let me just say that I think there are a lot of jackpots on these machines because they get a lot of play -- and that's the only reason. What is unusual is that this particular row of machines is always filled with players. When you have machines that are played all the time, you see jackpots all the time.
This is much like the row of video poker machines near the bathrooms at Caesars in the Palace Casino. These machines are always in use and you are always seeing hand pays. It's not because the machines are loose, and heaven knows the paytables arent the best... but they are in use all the time.
It's early July, we're back at our RV park here in northern Nv., and I''ve finally started to play on & off again for about 5 days before another break away. So hopefully, get ready for some pictures.
Today I went to the Eldorado in Reno prior to a sharing a great 4th of July BBQ with fellow RVer's from all over the country. And no, the high point of the meal was NOT from someone who went to fetch some smashed potatoes from KFC :) I play either RTT or ARTT in these retirement days--and not so surprisingly, with really better overall results ratio-wise than I did when playing SPS as a pro. But alas, I began the week by losing about $1600, and there was one notable thing about the machine I lost on that is a bit unique. I didn't have the time or desire to check if there were others like it, but this one had what appeared to be the most extreme full pay pay tables for the games I looked at. And the best part was it was a 25-credit max bet on 25c, 50c, and dollars, which meant it was perfect for my 5-level 25c/50c/$1/$2/$5 ARTT.
Oh, these are the games on it and these pay tables are good for every denomination, only I forgot to check the wild card games because I have no interest in playing them: 9/6 JoB, 9/6 BPD, 9/7 TDBP, 9/5 TBP+, 8/5 ACE$ BP, 10/7 DBP, & 10/6 DDBP. The two games I played were ACE$ BP and TBP+, of course. Yet I lost, but I'm going back in a few days to give them another shot. But in the meantime, it's Casino Fandango (if they even LET me in the place after the continuous muggings I've been giving them this past 6 months or so.
Well, for a quarter player I had my excitement for the 4th.. After cooking hot dogs, hamburgers, sausages, etc. for the whole family I decided to go for a few hours while the rest of the family was sleeping off full stomachs. I decided to lose $100 and go home or not and chose the favorite tdbp machine. At $50 I was beginning to think it might be fast, but resisting the overwhelming urge to choose a pair of 5's instead of a lone Ace, I got 4 of them and a new start. I thought I would see if maybe I was lucky enough to be in a hot cycle and sure enough, about 10-15 hands later two A's yielded 4/w/kicker for $1000. Using Alan's strategy, I took $100 only to play a little longer and got the laugh of the day. I went to play one of my favorite penny machines for 10 hands only at $2 a pop and hit the bonus round. Prior to that, I had pulled out the chair rather abrubtly to sit down only to yank the poor lil' lady's foot fromthe side of my chair. She had apparently been at her machine for a while and gave me the "look" to let me know how rude I was. After apologizing, I sat, won the $160 and cashed out and left. The look on her face for me leaving a "winning" machine was priceless.
I love stories like yours, slingshot. Congratulations. I've never heard of anyone getting quad aces with a kicker (equivalent of a royal) on Triple Double Bonus Poker. However I once got a natural royal playing that.
Alan, I actually saw one last week on your favorite row of machines at Rincon. 2nd machine from the left. $1,000 @.25
correction..3rd from left.
spojoey... did you happen to notice that a row of machines was removed from that section?? I think it's part of the way that they are going to shift around the casino with the new space that is being added on. But in the meantime it will consolidate play on those machines and with more play we'll be seeing and hearing about more big wins.
I would like to think those machines are "hot" or "loose" but since they are video poker games I will say they show a lot of winners because they are played a lot.
By the way, over the weekend the $5 Double Double Bonus progressive was somewhere north of $68-thousand. Was it hit yet?
I was there last Friday...all rows were there. Going down tomorrow will report back. I go there quite often and haven't played In any other spots
since you mentioned 3116...lol. Ill check the $5 prog tomorrow.
If you sat at machine 3116 there used to be a row in back of you. It's gone... or moved. They are also setting up some table games where slots used to be. They've shifted the $1 DDB progressive to the poker room area, and put slots in its place.
In the end there will be more slots and more video poker from what I've heard. It's just that the set-up is changing. So start writing down the numbers on your favorite machines because they could be shifted to a new location.
edited to add: I might stop by Saturday during the day. I have a free play offer that makes the schlepp worthwhile.
There has been lots of changes since I started going there around 10 years ago. I cant handle the drive to Vegas anymore. Just to tiring. (77 years young), Just more or less for something to do and my wife and I both enjoy video poker although she does play slots once in a while. every other week we stay over 2 nights and the other weeks just a day trip. We take advantage of every offer...lol
You know that $5 progressive is theoretically very "positive" at $68k, esp. with all the promos they have along with that million dollar drawing at year's end. So did you see any of the self-proclaimed LV AP's pounding them to death, even if it costs them their marriage?:) Or are all these guys at the Revel trying to lose $100,000 while telling themselves it's all *EV too?
When I spoke to the manager he told me that there were only two players when we were talking ... and there are a total of six machines.
The "Reno team" hasn't shown up at Rincon in several years since they lost out on several progressives. There was a big player from Vegas who hit the progressive for $70-thousand (I think it might have been two years ago? Memory fades.)
But as the manager told me, "someone is going to step up, put $500 in, and hit it." And he said several players have already put in "thousands" trying to get it.
When I was there the progressive was about $40k but I didn't play it. It goes up 25-cents per 5-coin play.
Well, the key is not to get greedy-if I had chosen the first A instead of the pair, I would have probably gotten upset when the other pair fell and quit for being such a dope. Another reason I like playing it is a chance at $500 by choosing key pairs on a small two pair like 4466J. I did get 4 WITHOUT the kicker for $100 at one session. lf the machine's not paying-the money can go fast.:cool:Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Math guys are gonna yell at you!!! Nice hit.
I'm used to 5 for 2 pair cause I play a lot of double double. But that 10 for trips is hard to stomach.
Triple Double bonus is a very tough game. You either hit big or you bust quick.Quote:
Originally Posted by regnis
Yeah, ddbp is my favorite,too. I usually wait until i hit a good quad w/kicker, and THEN give the tdbp a shot for about $50.:DQuote:
Originally Posted by regnis
Not mine, but this is from a student I was training.
Aces--the Singer way!
I gave up a few days of play in order to train a friend of mine who is in town until this afternoon. Yesterday you saw him make a profit of around $2700 on a 5-level ARTT as he played with his money and I advised.
TODAY, however, was A DIFFERENT STORY! I played while he observed. I played a simple 25c/50c/$1 RTT, and with a hundred bucks left I hit this beauty. Yes another royal Mr. Spock, and yes I continue to win on -EV machines redietz, just as I always have. See that 9/5 ddbp pay table? Gotta love it, because we both beat the thing. But the most important part of the training sessions was TO QUIT AS SOON AS THE WIN GOAL WAS ATTAINED, and that's exactly what was done both days. Now an AP "expert" playing on a 10/6 ddbp machine.....there's a story waiting to be told. Most of the time they'd stay at the machine and play right thru the big winners, then visit the ATM. After all, how can anyone leave a machine that's serving up a positive expectation hour after hour?:)
I could write a book about how to win consistently, overall, and without playing long hours.....
Well, I've completed my day or two of play this afternoon, and thanks to setting win (& loss) goals that initial $1600 loss I reported the other day not only evaporated quickly--it turned into more nice profiting. I included the "smaller" win of $1250 because it represented a session-ending win & it surpassed my win goal of $250.
Final tally: I played four sessions total. I lost the $1600 on the first one, and notice how I had no trouble reporting a loss even when I had no idea if I was going to win afterwards. Compare that to arci always coming on after being criticized, and saying how he had a "terrible run" or he "lost four weeks in a row" or he "went umpteen million hands without a royal"....but he has ALWAYS caveated those losses and bad runs by claiming "all is well though and the math came thru as expected, because I have now recovered all losses and am even ahead a few thousand". So just try to IMAGINE him or any of his ilk EVER saying they were behind as they speak!
The final 3 sessions, from today, show a $4000 royal for a session profit of $3600; a $1250 dealt quad for a session profit of $375; and $2000 quad Aces for a session profit of $1700. So how much did I make in less than THREE hours and four sessions of play? $4075, that's how much, and it was ALL on NEGATIVE EV GAMES!! The beat(ing) goes on.
Who's Who in Sports Gambling? WHO CARES!!!
Just curious-you stayed on the same machine or changed? Thanks.Quote:
Originally Posted by Rob.Singer
Rob, congratulations on the wins. I think it would be appropriate if you explained the specifics of the hand. Were these "conventional plays" or "special plays"? I am going to guess that these were conventional plays and I think that reinforces your overall strategy. And that is: special plays are used only a small percentage of the time when you are "stuck" and for the most part you play the same conventional strategy that the experts follow.
Good morning everyone....ain't it another GREAT day!?Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Before I answer a few questions and make a few comments, how's THIS for an astute observation: the genius/expert AP's in the crowd always rush over here to view pics of my wins--and even though they'll keep claiming they don't care because they most certainly do--isn't it interesting how they find themselves absolutely speechless in the face of -EV reality! I just hope they have enough clothesline to hang up all their weeping theory to dry out.
Sling, all of these wins, including my friend's $4000 Aces on $5 DDBP, were on the SAME machine. That's about $7400 net profit from playing -EV video poker....which is basically the same thing I've always done since dropping that AP curse. It's a shining example of playing a machine that's operating in a hot cycle. Critics & others may now be asking why I don't just run over there and keep playing if it's so hot., but the answer is quite simple. Greed kills winning, and because I said I wouldn't play again for 3-4 weeks and discipline is just as much a part of my consistent winning approach as any of the other parts, I'll spend my time being thrilled with these wins instead of possibly beating my head against the wall for not stopping when I should have. Sound familiar anyone?
Alan, the wins were all part of optimal play strategy. But I'm sure you noticed the most interesting part of this. Most of the damage was done on a 9/5 ddbp pay table, and ALL of it was done on -EV games. And, while there are some misled souls who claim quitting while ahead because of pre-determined win goals makes no difference and you will LOSE if you play a lot of these games,....well, gee how fun watching all that meaningless theory get shoved out the same window I've always dumped it thru.
Time for a little reality check here: When you get a royal flush it's all of matter of being in the right place, at the right time. It doesn't matter if you are playing a positive expectation game or a negative expectation game. In fact, it doesn't matter what game you are on -- Jacks, or Bonus, or double double, or triple double or deuces. If the cards are "right" and you push the button at the right time, you'll get it.
100% correct. The same for many, but not all, of my other winners I've hit over the years. Quite a few were the result of the special plays.
Just had Royal #7 at Rincon early this morning -- a 25-center playing Aces and Faces. I had $240 of free play which I lost on dollars, and so I took $40 out of my wallet just to play a little more but at 25-cents. Hit quad aces a few hands before the royal.
Here's my tally so far for the year:
$5 Royals (2) one at Caesars, one at Rincon
$2 Royal (1) Caesars
$1 Royal (2) Rincon
25-cent Royal (2) Rincon
A nice one card draw -- they all are! Let's see....I know you're quite a bit ahead this year, I know I'm ahead by a LOT like I have been for over a dozen years on -EV machines for the most part. Do you think the math, like arci & redietz, is mad at us and is determined to grab all those profits back and more? I mean, there is absolutely NO WAY to beat these games in the "long term", right?:)
I'm not sure I am going to be ahead for the year. If this royal had been on a $5 or $2 game it would have made a real difference in the bottom line. But if was on a 25-cent machine. The good news is that I only had $40 of my own money in the machine. I got a hand pay which was a pain. I did not tip. I think it's ridiculous to have to tip for a "pay" that does not require any paperwork. Also, on some other machines/games if there is a payoff of $1,000 it also requires a handpay, such as a five play game winning $200 on each line.
Two comments: You are not sure you'll be ahead by year's end. I'm sure I will be, and there's an 80% chance I'll be ahead by even more than I am now. (For exact numbers, please consult Spock...I mean, arci). So my question to you Alan is, understanding that I've done consistently well with my RTT & ARTT strategies that utilize, as an important part, win and loss goal-setting, just ask me to meet with you and seriously train you on those and you'll no longer have to be thinking about IF you'll be ahead at the end of each year. Your only question will be by how much.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
As for being intimidated into tipping for every handpay regardless if there's a tax form involved, why do you put yourself thru that? I NEVER tip, never have since 1996, and I never have any problems anywhere. Making believe it's your responsibility to ensure the casino employees have a good wage as a justification for doing something so totally stupid as tipping on handpays, only takes YOUR money away from YOU. How much have you squandered away in handpay tips in your life? I've saved at least $20,000.
Rob, playing video poker is not a business. I think it's impossible for anyone to forecast what their bottom line will be at the end of the year unless they quit playing after a big win and end the year at that point.
No matter what strategy you follow, it all depends on the luck of the cards -- the RNG. This is not like a business where you can forecast sales and production and costs.
Every royal flush you get could be the last one for a long, long time -- and don't forget that. Every quad you get could be the last one for a long time. You just don't know.
I wouldn't try forecasting anything in video poker, Rob.
Sounds as if someone's win goals and loss limits haven't been holding up their end.
So who's the video poker expert here, Alan or Rob? Rob offers to coach Alan, and Alan offers advice in return, but doesn't seem too eager to sign up for student status, even though Rob's won almost a million dollars. Hmmmmmm.
Not so. My strategy forecast that I would win at least 80%-85% of my visits, with an overall win of AT LEAST $2500/session played--including the losing ones. And the results were just that, and maybe even a little better while playing as a pro and even better since playing more recreationally as well as far less often. Yes, people who simply play only optimal or some other helter-skelter strategy cannot forecast a thing unless they want to predict losing--which is their safest bet.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
I kind of agree with some of that. Alan is and is likely to continue to be completely fascinated with playing the game, so it makes good sense to learn to do it as well as one can. He understands goals pretty well, although it is not wise to keep changing such goals based on how much you're winning in a session. Aside from that, I happen to believe he is a very good candidate to succeed with ARTT and RTT.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
Win goals and loss limits always work. If you stick to your loss limit you will never lose more than you intend do. If you stick to your win goal -- whether it is a fixed win goal, or a flexible win goal that accounts for winning more than you expected, you will always leave happy.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
Rob is the expert at his system, but while I respect his system and believe it has value, I choose to play differently. Rob makes "special plays" and I don't (with the exception of triple aces with kicker on TDB which I only faced ONE time in my life.)Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
Rob also has a high bankroll requirement and changes denominations which I don't do as the game I choose to play is determined by the amount of "entertainment money" I have for the session. Last night, for example, my entertainment budget was limited to the $240 of free play that I had, plus $40 cash. I used the $240 of free play on a $1 game, and then used the $40 on a 25-cent game and got lucky.
Rob uses a fixed win goal, and I use a flexible win goal. Rob has bigger loss limits than I have primarily because he has a pre determined "bankroll" for playing while I use "recreation money."
Alan, the primary denominations I use these days for RTT & ARTT are five-level 25c/50c/$1/$2/$5. You would do very well on either of these, and they are a lot more interesting to play than just pounding away. And while SPS was played by me at very hi denominations, it can be adjusted downward to make it compatible with anyone. But it is much more complex than either of the strategies I mentioned above. I can make a consistent winner out of anyone who has an excellent aptitude for the game.
Rob, since I am not familiar at all with RTT and ARTT or SDTT (super duper triple trouble) what is your starting bankroll and what is the win goal for five-level 25c/50c/$1/$2/$5 ??
Help me to understand why it bothers red and some others here that Alan doesn''t play Rob's system. He has stated repeatedly that he's not interested in using the bankroll that Rob's system requires. Does that make the system bad?? Who knows. Does that mean Alan is wrong?? Why??Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
What am I missing that this bothers some of you. They are 2 different people using 2 different methods. Who cares?
No one should care. They are both playing negative games. That is not something anyone should follow. Singer is a proven liar and Alan admits his overall gambling results have been losses.Quote:
Originally Posted by regnis
Hold it, Arc. I don't think negative games are the issue. I also play positive expectation games when I can find them. And I am sure Rob would also play positive games when he can find them. Rob does not play negative expectation games as a rule and I am sure he would tell you that his strategies would also work on positive paytables.
Now, as far as my overall gambling results: I've put the blame on craps -- I am ahead at video poker, and have been. I am also ahead at cash live poker games, but lost too much playing tournaments which is why I've just about completely given up tournaments except for a rare $60 or $70 tournament. The last one I played was about six months ago... so that is pretty rare.
I think he needs one of those vacations normal people take. :) He lies about me, then he lies about Alan's vp results since adopting goals, and then he lies about playing only -EV games. Remember the 25c thru $5 machines with all the 100%+ games I i'd'd @ Eldorado? Being couped up in a house of pain with a ball & chain THAT HE MANUFACTURED! causes strange rumblings....Quote:
Originally Posted by arcimede$
There's two: RTT & ARTT (Romp-Thru-Town & Advanced RTT).Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
The bankroll required for that 5-level RTT is, in detail, as follows: 50 credits @ 25c BP/50 @ 25c SDBP; 50 @ 50c BP/100 @ 50c SDBP; 100 @ $1 BP/100 @ $1 SDBP; 100 @ $2 BP/200 @ $2 SDBP; & 100 @ $5 BP/300 @SDBP. That's $2900 for a session and I recommend a 3X total gambling bankroll--or $8700--and your SINGLE SESSION WIN GOAL, which is a function of the lowest denomination being played, is $50. Your DAILY OVERALL WIN GOAL is $250. In other words, you'd play until you got at least $50 ahead in each session, then you'd go back and restart. You keep doing this until you hit $250 in profit minimum. If you happen to lose a session--which will only occur no more than 10% of the time--that's where the two additional session bankrolls come into play. I have never lost three in the same day or even two, and losing one or two is near-meaningless overall anyway because of the multiple big hits you'll experience.
Most people would rather play ARTT, because of the smaller bankroll requirement and the fact that it is far more interesting and entertaining. Here on that same 5-level spread, you'll need $2000/session, and again, I recommend 3X that for a total bankroll if doing this seriously. Your single session mini-win goal is $1.25, & your daily win goal is $200.
I know your first comment will be about such small win goals with such big risk. You will notice many big dollar wins because of this, and a large bankroll makes the small win goals easy to attain. Large bankrolls with relatively small win goals is the trademark of all my strategies, and is one of the main reasons I've succeeded with each of them.
I can hit a $250 win goal playing a couple of hands on $5 Bonus. It seems to me your system is a lot of trouble for little return.
Alan you are mostly correct. Go in with $2700 with a win goal of $250. It is going to work out in your favor quite often. But you better hope you don't have a tough session the first time out brotha!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
It seems that way to you because you're forgetting you usually have losing years. How often do you think you can sit down and win $250 on $5 BP only, in comparison to how much you will lose trying that continuously? You like to keep it simple because all you want is the action without too much effort, and you have money to lose. But think if you had put in similar effort to mine over the years. I'm far ahead; you could be too. I guess it boils down to your commitment level, and if you ever want to do anything at a casino other than rush in and sit down for some quick action. I used to get sweaty hands also as I neared casinos. But I eventually discovered it's so much more than that, because I no longer went to casinos for thrills--I went to win their money.
Rob are you trying to tell me that only your system allows small win goals to work? Sorry Rob. You don't have the exclusive on small win goals.
Let me turn this around and ask you: what makes you think you will win $250 with your $2900 bankroll playing 25-cent and fifty cent and one-dollar games? In order to win significant money at those lower levels games, you need to hit the "big winners".Quote:
Originally Posted by Rob.Singer
Take the same $2900 to a 8/5 $5 bonus game and hit one full house and you have a profit of $175 (actual win $200). Hit a straight and you have a $75 profit.
Your system requires "banking" a lot of small wins at the lower levels to accumulate profits. Well how many small wins must you accumulate at 25 cent games and fifty cent games? And why would accumulating small wins at 25-cent and 50-cent games be a faster route to a $250 win goal than accumulating small wins at a $5 game? And the answer is: it isn't. Both require luck.
Frankly, Rob, if I brought $2900 to a casino (which I never do) I'd feel pretty stupid walking out with only a $250 profit after taking into consideration the cost of going to the casino.
I look at your claims about "smart play" as being no different than an AP who says that if they are on a positive expectation game that they will be profitable. Your system does not guarantee profits. If it did, you wouldn't have to chase your losses to the tune of $53,000 ... and still not hit a $2,500 win goal with a $173,000 bankroll.
Look Rob, you have valid points, and you have good ideas, and you help many players see the truth about casino gambling. But don't make the mistake of trying to claim that your system is better than any other system. It's not. It's worthwhile, but it doesn't have any lock on ingenuity. If you did have a lock, you wouldn't be telling people to have a $173,000 bankroll or a $2,900 bankroll. You need those bankrolls because your system has no lock on anything but the idea to hope you get lucky before an underfunded bankroll becomes exhausted.
Only small win goals? The win goal is "just" $250, but I've won everywhere between $250 & nearly $20,000/session going for it. Where did you get that from?
You don't understand the reason for playing low to higher denoms. either. It's not about winning $250 all on one hit. It's about winning a bit here and a bit there so you DON'T NEED a big win all the time, and the majority of your session wins will be won in that manner. Your mind seems to be stuck on the point that it's difficult to get ahead $250 on quarters & halves. Mostly yes, but you are completely ignoring their win-reduction factor for the higher level games. And THAT is where the majority of the 80%-90% win rate comes from. As for your continued belief that playing only $5 will win $250 faster? Correct, but as you've experienced and as you should know by now, you'll lose a lot of money overall doing that because the wipeout session losses of $2900/ will come far more often. Remember, NO GREED is a key part of any winning player's successful approach to playing. Once you get that out of your head--along with your nonsensical moving target win goals because you just can't bear to stop the action, which goes hand in hand with greed--then you will NEVER feel silly walking out of ANY casino with ANY amount of profit.
The remainder of your comments about the bankroll I used shows you never want to seriously understand such a complicated strategy. I believe even Frank had the same problem and took the same easy way out. Do you understand why there's a saying "you need money to win money"? That's because if you play a game with $20 you will almost always lose it going for a $10 win. Your chances get better & better as your win % requirement gets lower. And that's why my strategies have such low % win goals and why I've had such incredible success. Yes any strategy requires luck to win. My strategies, including ALL the special plays, simply give MEANINGFUL luck (ie, session-ending hits coming from more volatile & higher denominational games) much more opportunity to appear in every session. And the reason I always say unique ingenuity went into what I've developed, is because I know of no one else who's ever come up with something as successful against the vp machines as this.
Your post is filled with inconsistencies. If 90 pct of wins come from higher denominations then why not just play at that level?
Who said anything about a $10 win goal with a $20 bankroll? That's a fantasy. Let's try one dollar.
The inconsistencies begin and end with you not paying attention to what was said....again.
Do you remember reading "the win reduction factor", and what the lower level wins have to do with that? Here it is again: You win some on the lower levels; now it's time to play at the higher levels. Your recovery + $250 is now less or much less because of your wins at the lower levels.
If you're playing only $5 and you're stuck $1800 then hit four Aces on BP, you STILL are not able to quit. But if you were smart and played my strategy you very well could have been down only $1400 because of your wins at the smaller denominations. Then suddenly, you're up $600 and it's time to go home. Except for you of course. You'd change your win goal to something more, then lose a few hundred, then claim you went home "happy" with the $250. And that's where lifetime losing comes into play--all that extra profit you just had to squander away because you didn't want to stop when you said you would. That, and the ridiculous program of giving away thousands in handpay tips because you get intimidated by floor stiffs.
I can help you win overall, be happy 80% to 90% of the time you go to casinos, and I can help you KEEP your winnings by doing what you say you're going to do and not continually be overcome with the craving for more action. I can do it alan. Just ask....and get motivated.
Rob what makes you think you won't have smaller wins to bank playing at $5?? You make it seem as though at $5 you can't have small wins just as in small denomination games.
Won a little over $5,000.00 playing craps Saturday afternoon at Rincon. Shooter rolled a 5-point FireBet for $1250.00 and also shot lots of hardways. I left too much money on the table....feels like the rolls will never end sometimes.
Congratulations on the win! Ironically, I hear more about Fire Bet payoffs at Rincon which is card craps, and totally random play, than I hear about at other casinos such as Caesars and Rio where shooters have a "chance" at dice influencing.Quote:
Originally Posted by JamieV
You can't influence the dice in card craps because how you throw the dice has no impact on the cards and what numbers they will reveal. It makes you wonder if just random luck is all that matters in any version of the game of craps?
Nice win. I have never had the opportunity, or should I say displeasure, of playing card craps. After playing craps all my life, I don't think I could get excited about card craps. Of course, 5 numbers on the fire would help.
Alan, I am still a firm believer in some degree of dice control, and I wasn't barred because of "bad" shooting. But I trust the cards more than some of the wild random shooters that we all hate in craps.
I was at a real dice craps table when a shooter made all six points in the fire bet -- and he was a random shooter. The dice flew and bounced all over the place.
I try to influence the dice. I set them and roll them carefully. Here are my results with the fire bet:
Made five numbers: Caesars with real dice, once. Rio with real dice, once. Rincon with card craps, once.
Made four numbers: Caesars with real dice, three times. Rincon with card craps, once.
Number of times I played craps with real dice at Caesars or Rio -- too many to count.
Number of times I was the shooter at Rincon -- not more than ten times my entire life.
Question: why do I have a much higher percentage of fire bet payoffs at card craps? LOL
Didn't say you won't have any. But you'll have less of them because you'll have far less credits to play with, and those 80 losing hands at $5 only are far more costly and will lead to bankroll ruin far sooner than being less greedy from the start. Playing that way is no different than what an AP does--banging away at a single denomination for hours on end, hoping to win every time and trying to pile up as many of those sacred slot club points as possible. They lose the majority of their sessions, and they play on better pay tables. Your one advantage over that is in your goal-setting, even though yours is moving target-baseQuote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
At Rincon this very moment a guy sitting to my left was dealt a royal on a five play machine with $5.00 bet..They have been over an hour and he hasn't got paid yet. $100, 000.00.
Wow, what's the hangup? I've seen them pay $400,000 royals on $100 single line machines without a hitch.Quote:
Originally Posted by spojoey