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Screwed last night with the New Orleans pick. Total was 226 with 31 seconds left, and the game finished with 237, beating me by 1. Ugh.
Nothing on the earlier games tonight.
Later:
New Orleans under 223.5
May have 1 or 2 more as we get closer to 7pm PST.
San Antonio **FIRST HALF** +6.5 -115 (+6 -105 ok)
Didn't like any of the other games today
Okay, I got lazy with posting my record.
Don't know why.
But here it is:
Through 2/25, I was 160-130-6.
Here's the rest:
2/26: 2-3
2/27: 2-1
2/28: 1-2 (OT fucked)
3/1: 1-1 (OT fucked)
3/2: 1-0
3/3: 1-4
3/4: 0-3
3/5: 2-0
3/6: 0-2
3/7: 1-0
3/8: 1-0
So I'm 12-16 since then. Would be 14-14 if not for those two OT fiascos.
On the small bright side, I've posted 3 winning days in the past 4.
I have moderately adjusted my strategy again (for late-season), which has resulted in fewer picks. Notice I've only made 6 picks total over the past 4 days.
This is my first full season of NBA betting with my new strategy, so I'm adjusting as I go along.
I will pretty much be repeating my early season strategy next year, but will start to make adjustments quicker when it comes to midseason and late-season, as I think that strategy is no longer viable because a lot changes regarding the way lines are set and the way teams play.
Going forward I also will be throwing in more 1H picks (which I really hadn't been doing), as I think there can be some value there when done selectively.
It's a learning process.
172-146-6 is my total record. I'm still hitting a 54.1% clip overall.
Next year I am going to shoot for 57%.
Starting soon:
Atlanta over 211 (211.5 ok)
Atlanta got off to a bad first half, then had a chance (needed 32 points in final 7:28), then fell apart and lost by 12. To be honest, I was never really in the ballgame, though at that one point in 4Q it probably had about a 30% chance to win. It was a blowout game, so that was the problem regarding the 4th. Oh, and Atlanta absolutely couldn't shoot.
Haven't run the numbers, but I'm noticing the tanking teams are not covering, which isn't surprising. This has been enough to push me off betting those tanking dogs, but I haven't gone against them very much either, which has been a mistake.
Mad at myself for not going with the double pick of Washington and the under, as NO was missing Davis, and they're pretty much shit without him.
Anyway...
Last minute bet on Porland +0
Curry out, Portland has 3 days rest, and GS played a tough one yesterday, and is on the road tonight.
1-1 yesterday
Coming up in 20 min:
Charlotte under 218
Lots of players out: Booker, Warren, Zeller, and others
Lost yesterday by a wide margin
Chicago under 213
Starts at 12:40 PST
Here's one of my favorite type of unders recently... a Sac under:
Sacramento under 214
Took yesterday off after an 0-2 day on Sunday.
Here's one for right now:
Knicks +1 or moneyline
So it seems like anti-tank picks really are the way to go.
While it took some 4th quarter heroics, tankers Atlanta and Brooklyn failed to cover. Orlando and Phoenix failed to cover by a wide margin.
The only tanker to cover was Chicago, and they barely did so.
Funny thing was that last night I considered doing an entire slate of anti-tanker picks (those 4 above) minus Chicago (since the Clippers aren't very good, and were on the road), and also considered the Denver/Lakers under.
Instead I just went with the Knicks +1, who decided to fall apart in the 2nd half and lose by 13.
The tanking is so bad that even Ken Scalir told me on the phone last night that he's aware of it. And Ken hates sports.
It might be wise to just blind-fire the spread against the true tanking teams the rest of the way, and I think that will end up +EV (just has to win 52.38% of the time).
That seems to be the proper late season strategy. Over/unders have gotten very tough to handicap at this stage of the season.
Today: Milwaukee -10.5
Orlando is a complete disaster, and Gordon is out with a concussion.
Might post more later.
Starting soon: Sacramento +9 (moneyline +350 ok)
Golden State has no Curry, no Thompson, no Durant
I didn't post a last minute pick I made the other day which won by 0.5 (Golden State under 223.5). Posted it on my PokerFraudAlert site.
Anti-tank day
Brooklyn -4 (yes, you read that right) -- Dallas has no Barnes or Noel
Denver -6.5
Cleveland -7
I feel like a fish betting favorites, but seriously that seems to be the right play these days.
Also, the Jazz have allowed very few points lately
Allowed past 6 games: 80, 84, 78, 99, 79, 88
Seriously.
Playing the awful Kings, so obv I'm going under.
Utah under 198 (197.5 ok)
What the hell? The Utah game had 12 points in the last minute or something like that? That's a rough one.
Last minute
Clippers under 218
Clippers over lost by a good margin despite a great 1Q yesterday.
The stats service I use provides picks (I don't subscribe to them, but I see them after-the-fact), and that was also their one pick yesterday.
So we were both fooled.
Today here's an over:
San Antonio Over 201 (201.5 ok)
Cleveland under 228
Utah under 193.5
Miami over 217.5
Degen firing on Golden State under 220.5 at last minute
1-2 so far
Refs or their handlers must have had some big money on the Bucks. Been awhile since I've seen a game this gaffed (Bucks v. Warriors in Oaktown w/ 3 quarters played).
Cleveland under 222
Spurs/Warriors - Under 206
For those who are curious:
Record after March 9 was 173-147-6.
Here's what happened since then (minus today's game, because that hasn't played yet):
3/10:
Charlotte under 218 - LOST
3/11:
Chicago under 213 - LOST
Sac under 214 - LOST
3/13:
Knicks +1 - LOST
3/14:
Milwaukee -10.5 - LOST
Golden State Under 223.5 - WON
3/16:
Sacramento +9 - WON
3/17:
Brooklyn -4 - WON
Denver -6.5 - LOST
Cleveland -7 - LOST
Utah under 198 - LOST
3/18:
Clippers under 218 - LOST
3/19:
San Antonio over 201 - LOST
3/23:
Cleveland under 228 - WON
Utah under 193.5 - LOST
Miami over 217.5 - LOST
Golden State under 220.5 - WON
4/3
Cleveland under 222 - WON
Record from 3/10-4/3: 6-12
Overall NBA record to date: 179-159-6 (52.96%)
So that's a little above the 52.38% mark you need to have a profitable season, but not by much.
The season was a tale of two parts:
Through December 30: 98-62-2
December 31-April 3: 81-97-4
While this "break" is arbitrary (I purposely selected my peak and then started the second portion at my first real losing streak), it's clear that I was doing something very right in November and December, but stuck too long with an approach which wasn't cutting it in the middle and later portions of the season.
I did have some bad luck in the second portion of the season, getting a lot of unders ruined by OT (more than expectation), and taking a number of bad beats on spread games.
Also notable was HOW I was winning. In November and December, it was common for my picks to win by 20+ points (especially the unders). In 2018, my wins tended to be close. This is important because the blowout wins tend to indicate an excellent pick, while the close wins are more a function of luck.
I may or may not pick the playoffs. I'm mostly done for the regular season, unless something jumps out at me.
Next year I will take a different approach in January-April, and perhaps just shut it down if I start to slump, as it seems I'm just better at early season.
Won it barely, up to 180-159-6
Last minute
Celtics under 200
Last minute:
Golden State/San Antonio under 206 -115 (205 -110 ok)
Philadelphia/Miami - Under 213
Cleveland 1st quarter +0 -118
Lebron is going to come out really strong here. Whether he will be enough to overcome the Celtics the entire game is questionable, but I think he plays his heart out in the 1st quarter.