Hatred on this Forum

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Originally Posted by Rob.Singer

But he knows the BS he's flinging doesn't get by actual educated people.

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Harry/Rob whatever your name is: You keep telling us how educated you are. Everything, and I mean everything you post says otherwise. You know it's not what you say that matters, but what others say and think about you...and on every forum you participate or have participated on, you are overwhelmingly thought of as an idiot. The forum idiot. The village idiot.

If in fact you or someone else paid for that fancy education that you claim to have....that money was wasted. It would have been better spent burning it in the fireplace for a few moments of warmth.

Smart people are disciplined people. You are not smart. You are not disciplined. You don't even realize how easy it is for me to play you. A couple key words and you can't help but show your ignorance and put your sick, diseased mind and it's workings on display for everyone to see.

Hairy/Harry/Rob you are a joke. You're a ghost. A completely irrelevant old man, bitter and angry and so you lash out, hating everyone. But sadly, it is really yourself that you hate and everyone knows it.

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Originally Posted by slingshot

Saw on the news last nite- two people shot- one killed on level 3 parking lot at Horseshoe Bossier, LA.

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A 28 year old guy went UFC on a 70 year old guy last night in the sportsbook. The old guy wasn't able even to rise from his chair. My understanding was all the guy said was "you must not follow baseball." I guess the conversation was over the MVP in baseball.

Everytime I go out lately I hear or see this type of thing. It's more than a concern. What is wrong with these young guys? 3 guys sitting in a sportsbook all day looking for a fight. No one wanted to give them one. People just look the other way. We need understand it only gets worse?

These elder gents need to realize it's not in police jurisdiction and security is not equipped to handle these ruffians. And most folks will not get involved until it's too late.

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Originally Posted by Rob.Singer

Oh yes I know much about the type of "people" who go to Burning Man. After it's over, every weirdo hippie, faggot, transgender nut job, and unemployed beggar combs the parking lots at GSR panhandling for successful/normal people's money..

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I was walking by the SIGN this year during this period. A hairy object was walking towards me. I couldn't tell if it was man or woman. She was walking around totally naked. Looked like the lockness monster or something.

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

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Originally Posted by Bill Yung

Calvin Ayre, and the rest of Mike's "gambling industry" friends are all fugitive US felons? Ha, he's even worried about somebody called 5-dimes Tony. Another one hiding out in South America? How many times has Mike been their guest there? The reason for that Spanish word of the day baloney? That what's you call "dirt", and the people who, like Singer wrote, who support them till the day they die. Cool.

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I don't think he has to worry about 5 Dimes Tony anymore: https://news.co.cr/judiciary-police-...ta-rica/76738/

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https://news.co.cr/us-expat-and-spor...ta-rica/76844/

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Originally Posted by Bill Yung

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Originally Posted by Bill Yung

Calvin Ayre, and the rest of Mike's "gambling industry" friends are all fugitive US felons? Ha, he's even worried about somebody called 5-dimes Tony. Another one hiding out in South America? How many times has Mike been their guest there? The reason for that Spanish word of the day baloney? That what's you call "dirt", and the people who, like Singer wrote, who support them till the day they die. Cool.

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https://news.co.cr/us-expat-and-spor...ta-rica/76844/

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you're so full of shit it's coming out your ears

some crooks on Wall Street

does that mean that everybody who works on Wall Street is a crook?

Don't even bother to answer.

I know the answer would be real fucking stupid

or if you want to make a stupid answer - go ahead - who gives a fuck

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

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Originally Posted by Rob.Singer

But he knows the BS he's flinging doesn't get by actual educated people.

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Harry/Rob whatever your name is: You keep telling us how educated you are. Everything, and I mean everything you post says otherwise. You know it's not what you say that matters, but what others say and think about you...and on every forum you participate or have participated on, you are overwhelmingly thought of as an idiot. The forum idiot. The village idiot.

If in fact you or someone else paid for that fancy education that you claim to have....that money was wasted. It would have been better spent burning it in the fireplace for a few moments of warmth.

Smart people are disciplined people. You are not smart. You are not disciplined. You don't even realize how easy it is for me to play you. A couple key words and you can't help but show your ignorance and put your sick, diseased mind and it's workings on display for everyone to see.

Hairy/Harry/Rob you are a joke. You're a ghost. A completely irrelevant old man, bitter and angry and so you lash out, hating everyone. But sadly, it is really yourself that you hate and everyone knows it.

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And so you've said....

I understand that you are now distraught about your silly, overly lucky Eagles getting smoked in the 4th qtr. at home today in front of the faggiest fans in the country. So let's hear some more of that schmoozy, mercy talk about your "imaginary partner" who choked to death rather than spend another minute watching you piss all your gov't handouts away....rather than have to live with you and your concocted "bj pro/bleeder of neon" BS!

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Originally Posted by Rob.Singer

And so you've said....

I understand that you are now distraught about your silly, overly lucky Eagles getting smoked in the 4th qtr. at home today in front of the faggiest fans in the country. So let's hear some more of that schmoozy, mercy talk about your "imaginary partner" who choked to death rather than spend another minute watching you piss all your gov't handouts away....rather than have to live with you and your concocted "bj pro/bleeder of neon" BS!

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Growing a little (more) angry are you? :rolleyes: Everyday your story unravels a little more and your charade exposed a little more. And all you can do is respond with name-calling and personal attacks. Because that is the sick, piece of shit that you are.

Dan Druff: Haven't we had enough of this yet? :confused:

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

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Originally Posted by Rob.Singer

And so you've said....

I understand that you are now distraught about your silly, overly lucky Eagles getting smoked in the 4th qtr. at home today in front of the faggiest fans in the country. So let's hear some more of that schmoozy, mercy talk about your "imaginary partner" who choked to death rather than spend another minute watching you piss all your gov't handouts away....rather than have to live with you and your concocted "bj pro/bleeder of neon" BS!

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Growing a little (more) angry are you? :rolleyes: Everyday your story unravels a little more and your charade exposed a little more. And all you can do is respond with name-calling and personal attacks. Because that is the sick, piece of shit that you are.

Dan Druff: Haven't we had enough of this yet? :confused:

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Waaa....waaa....waaa....are we crying to our mommy and baby bro too? :)

Grow some.

I think that at least we have dispelled the myths of accumulating EV. And I think we did it without another round of hateful attacks.

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

I think that at least we have dispelled the myths of accumulating EV. And I think we did it without another round of hateful attacks.

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Alan Mendelson, you are a nut. :D Did you ever see the movie Monty Python and the holy grail? Anyone recall the Black Knight scene? Alan is the black Knight. He has lost both his arms and both his legs in the fight and he thinks he is still fighting and worse yet he thinks he is winning. :rolleyes:

That is Alan. I have explained this until I am blue in the face and Alan just keeps coming at me like the Energizer bunny....in this case a mentally challenged Energizer bunny.

Alan, I am having my best year for blackjack results of my career. Well into 6 figures, which for my level of play, green to mid black, is very good. It is only my second 6 figure year, solely from blackjack results. And by mid September, that was less than 3/4 through the year, I had already had eclipsed my best year ever mark.

And guess what? I have also accumulated more EV this year than any other year. That is not a coincidence. The two go together. You play good games, with strong expected value and accumulate that EV and in the long run, actual results will find their way through the variance to match (fairly closely) that accumulated EV.

But I am tired of explaining this too you. It literally is like I am talking to a brick. So Alan you keep doing what your doing (and being broke by the 4th of the month) and I will keep doing what I am doing. :cool:

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

Well into 6 figures, which for my level of play, green to mid black, is very good.

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In re-reading, I think I need to clarify this. Not really "well into 6 figures". That would be multiple hundreds of thousands...into jbjb territory. :rolleyes: That is not what I meant to say. I meant to convey above the 6 figure mark by a comfortable margin. My apologies for the poor choice of words.

Kewlj congratulations for having a good year. It's not because you're accumulating EV. It's because you're playing smart and the cards are coming your way.

I'm sorry but there's no such thing as accumulating EV. You can play with an EV, but you can't accumulate it.

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

I'm sorry but there's no such thing as accumulating EV. You can play with an EV, but you can't accumulate it.

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Alan, I know you want to challenge everything I say. That has been you M.O. Since I arrived at this forum. I say things that you, as a...let's see....what term do I want to use?....I'll go with "ploppie", so as to hopefully not offend you with the degenerate gambler label. :) So I say things that you as a ploppie, or non-advantage player, have never heard and so don't understand, and you immediately jump on me and challenge me.

What you don't seem to understand is that everything I do, everything I have learned has come from others. Books I have read. Many, many successful players that I have interacted with on forums. A handful of players that I communicate with privately on a regular or semi-regular basis. Wong, Munchkin, Schlesinger, Grosjean, Kevin Blackwood, are players that had a big influence on me and I was lucky enough to communicate with personally and privately at times. Players on forums that go by handles of bigplayer, 21forme, and a few other very successful players, I have been lucky enough to communicate and network with privately and exchange information.

So again, everything I do, everything I learned came from one of these successful players. Nothing original about my game. I have taken bits and pieces from many of sources and added some of my own little twists for my own unique situation and that is my game.

So the idea of accumulating EV. Not mine. I learned that from James Grosjean. I will direct you to read a copy of Beyond Counting Exhibit CAA. If you don't know someone that has a copy, if is rather expensive to get a copy, usually in the $2000 range when it pops up on ebay, but living in Vegas, there is a copy at The UNLV library. It is not available for check-out, only viewing in the library.

I almost hesitate to direct you to this source, because if you can't understand my simplified explanations, you aren't going to understand King James' explanation of the concept. But read it. Maybe that will register. :rolleyes:

Either way, I am done trying to explain this concept to you that you don't understand, and don't want to try to understand.

Ha, Alan has you wrapped around his little finger. You couldn't just write, thanks, Alan, you are okay, after all.

I tell you, any nut-job would be happy to call this place home. The entertainment value is off even MrV's "bullshit" meter. Puts you to sleep with a smile.

Speaking of MrV, I just had this weird thought. I wonder was he molested in some Catholic church by some priest. How else to explain it?

When I first heard the phrase, “accumulating EV”, I was totally lost. After reading multiple posts, I was able to decipher the concept of “playing at a lost while at the advantage”, and the subsequent tally that playing at an advantage can provide.

In simple terms, for me, it is no different than playing FPDW at 100.76% and going through a drought. If the goal is to play through ten million dollars to make $76,000, fine, but you will have bad days. If the goal is to get to the ten million dollar number to achieve the goal, then set backs are viewed as a minimal obstacle.

Yes, then the argument is about “accumulated EV”. If I had a losing session at FPDW, it would stink, but I would document the amount that I had put through the machine. The hope in the next session ievents would even out. I am not due. But over a billion hands I would hope to to be up .76%.

Blackjack has more variables due to card counting. I do not know the formula to translate +2, +4, +6, etc. counts but it is obvious that compiling these stats helps one to remember how they are perform8ng against “mathematical average”.

The EV potential at BJ is so much more than FPDW. The expected windfall at the end of the year is based on the total amount of optimal opportunities (+6, +8). Players count their optimum plays. Good or bad, they will record it.

We all agree that losing stinks. But most have a plan when approaching a machine or BJ table. VP and BJ do have expected results. I agree that that the longer you play will get to that result.

If individuals agree to expected results on these two games then, maybe, one can understand the phrase, “accumulated EV”.

There is no such thing as accumulated EV PERIOD.

I agree. Never liked the term. Give the overall math another vernacular.

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Originally Posted by AxelWolf

There is no such thing as accumulated EV PERIOD.

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What are you nuts? :confused: You joining the Alan club?


Today I played 2 sessions at 2 different casinos. Both were heads up with the dealer (during football games).

Session 1 was a double deck game. Based on rules, penetration and my spread, each round played was worth $1.80. I played 140 rounds. Expected value: $252.

Session 2 was 6 deck game. Based on rules, penetration, and my spread, each round was worth $1.20. I played 180 rounds. Expected value: $216.

Total expected value (accumulated EV) for the day: $468. (this happened to be well above my daily average for just a couple hours play due to the heads up sessions).

Whether I won or lost today is completely irrelevant. I accumulated $468 in EV. If I were to accumulate this same EV every day for a year that would be $170,000 in EV and over such a larger trial, my actual results would be right in that neighborhood.

One of the purposes of accumulating EV is that different games have different values. Not only different blackjack games, but all advantage play opportunities. More well rounded AP's that I (like you), build EV at all sorts of different AP plays. That EV is all thrown into the pot and at the end of the year (or some other longterm period), your accumulated EV and actual results will be pretty close. That is what accumulated EV is all about.

If accumulated EV and actual results are continually not close, there is likely something wrong, like you are being cheated (highly unlikely except if your online handle begins with zen***g) or your game(s) have holes in them, meaning you are making mistakes, or doing something undisciplined like chasing losses.

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Originally Posted by Deech

I agree. Never liked the term. Give the overall math another vernacular.

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Don't agree with him. He is being a douche for some reason. You actually laid out the perfect example of what accumulated EV is in your above post concerning FPDW play. Now imagine you play not only that game but several different games. You figure out where you are (actual results) in relationship to expectation by accumulated EV.

I think people are getting lost in the semantics. On plays that the mathematical advantage (expectation) can be calculated within reason, you can use that info. If a play is worth a $100 an hour and you want to make $2000 a week you need to execute 20 hours of playing time on that edge. As with any kind of gambling there will be a variance with the actual results at the end of the week. That variance can be calculated as well and the results will help you to decide if your edge is playable due to bankroll size, time availability, length of exposure, and many other determining factors.
If you are running above expectation you can reasonably expect at some point to revert back(run bad) to the expectation. If you are running below expectation you can reasonably expect to converge(run good) with expectation at some point.
The whole "accumulating EV" is basically a reference to the action you are getting down on the edge, in order to make anything and get anywhere. The amount of play you accumulated will reflect with your overall results depending on the variance (volatility). Probably not the best terminology but it is what it is. Anyone who understands EV understands what is being implied.

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Originally Posted by MaxPen

Anyone who understands EV understands what is being implied.

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I certainly would have thought so. That is why Axelwolf's response is so perplexing. Maybe he is just trying to give me a hard time (be a douche bag) and I am not realizing it....I don't know. :confused:

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

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Originally Posted by MaxPen

Anyone who understands EV understands what is being implied.

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I certainly would have thought so. That is why Axelwolf's response is so perplexing. Maybe he is just trying to give me a hard time (be a douche bag) and I am not realizing it....I don't know. :confused:

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Because technically there is no such thing as ACCUMULATED EV.

There is such a thing as Cumulative Earned Value though, which is what you are implying by using the term Accumulated Expected Value.

Kewlj will you please try to understand this: your made up term "accumulating EV" is a bad term. It not only makes no sense but you can't do it. AxelWolf is not giving you a hard time and he's not joining the Alan Club but he's being honest.

COME UP WITH ANOTHER TERM.

Basically you're saying you are playing with an advantage and as you keep playing with your advantage the profits should come. Is that correct? Well, "accumulating EV" is not the term to describe that.

A wheel is round. A wheel can't be a cube.

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

Kewlj will you please try to understand this: your made up term "accumulating EV" is a bad term. It not only makes no sense but you can't do it. AxelWolf is not giving you a hard time and he's not joining the Alan Club but he's being honest.

COME UP WITH ANOTHER TERM.

Basically you're saying you are playing with an advantage and as you keep playing with your advantage the profits should come. Is that correct? Well, "accumulating EV" is not the term to describe that.

A wheel is round. A wheel can't be a cube.

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KJ didn't invent the term. It is used by a lot of people. Anyone with a basic understanding gets what is being implied. You however are a proven dunce with osmium between your ears.

Square wheels do exist but the term is mostly used as a metaphor.

I swear 99% of the time this forum is something like:

AP: "Had a good day, happy I generated a lot of EV."

*Alan shuffling through his Webster's dictionary trying to find a way to refute what the AP said*

Alan: "Oh I gotcha, I GOTCHA!!!! You said FREE PLAY but what you meant is SLOT PLAY, omg ahahahahaaa you so dumb!! No such thing as 'AP' when you can possibly lose money, durrrr, what you're saying is <continues rambling incoherently>. Believe me though because I'm a failed journalist and I have integrity even though I've never told the truth once in my life!!!!"

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

Kewlj will you please try to understand this: your made up term "accumulating EV" is a bad term. It not only makes no sense but you can't do it. AxelWolf is not giving you a hard time and he's not joining the Alan Club but he's being honest.

COME UP WITH ANOTHER TERM.

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MaxPen is correct. Is not my term Alan.

The term for what we are talking about is "expected value". Every play has an expected value. We are adding up those expected values, thus accumulating expected values or EV.

I am sorry you don't like the term. Please tell me what you prefer and maybe we can get people to re-write the books. :rolleyes:

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Originally Posted by MaxPen

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

Kewlj will you please try to understand this: your made up term "accumulating EV" is a bad term. It not only makes no sense but you can't do it. AxelWolf is not giving you a hard time and he's not joining the Alan Club but he's being honest.

COME UP WITH ANOTHER TERM.

Basically you're saying you are playing with an advantage and as you keep playing with your advantage the profits should come. Is that correct? Well, "accumulating EV" is not the term to describe that.

A wheel is round. A wheel can't be a cube.

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KJ didn't invent the term. It is used by a lot of people. Anyone with a basic understanding gets what is being implied. You however are a proven dunce with osmium between your ears.

Square wheels do exist but the term is mostly used as a metaphor.

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You just defined the problem. You just said you get what's being implied. What is being implied is a poor substitution for an accurate description or term.

Let's speak a language we all can understand.

Again, a wheel cannot be a cube.

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

Kewlj will you please try to understand this: your made up term "accumulating EV" is a bad term. It not only makes no sense but you can't do it. AxelWolf is not giving you a hard time and he's not joining the Alan Club but he's being honest.

COME UP WITH ANOTHER TERM.

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MaxPen is correct. Is not my term Alan.

The term for what we are talking about is "expected value". Every play has an expected value. We are adding up those expected values, thus accumulating expected values or EV.

I am sorry you don't like the term. Please tell me what you prefer and maybe we can get people to re-write the books. :rolleyes:

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Okay you're telling me you can add up expected value? Then add up the expected value of just five (5) hands of blackjack. Show your work.

As an example of what I want to see, I'm going to throw a single die five times:

5 + 1 + 1 + 4 + 2 = 13

Now can you add up your five hands of accumulated EV?

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

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Originally Posted by MaxPen

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

Kewlj will you please try to understand this: your made up term "accumulating EV" is a bad term. It not only makes no sense but you can't do it. AxelWolf is not giving you a hard time and he's not joining the Alan Club but he's being honest.

COME UP WITH ANOTHER TERM.

Basically you're saying you are playing with an advantage and as you keep playing with your advantage the profits should come. Is that correct? Well, "accumulating EV" is not the term to describe that.

A wheel is round. A wheel can't be a cube.

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KJ didn't invent the term. It is used by a lot of people. Anyone with a basic understanding gets what is being implied. You however are a proven dunce with osmium between your ears.

Square wheels do exist but the term is mostly used as a metaphor.

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You just defined the problem. You just said you get what's being implied. What is being implied is a poor substitution for an accurate description or term.

Let's speak a language we all can understand.

Again, a wheel cannot be a cube.

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You are trying to focus on your use of the word cube now, when all know you are implying that there is no such thing as a square wheel. A very common metaphorical reference. Actually square shaped wheels do exist but everyone knows what is being implied with your reference. You're pretty much just a dimwitted troll with an obvious agenda.

https://www.theatlantic.com/technolo...a-cube/276705/

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Originally Posted by RS__

I swear 99% of the time this forum is something like:

AP: "Had a good day, happy I generated a lot of EV."

*Alan shuffling through his Webster's dictionary trying to find a way to refute what the AP said*

Alan: "Oh I gotcha, I GOTCHA!!!! You said FREE PLAY but what you meant is SLOT PLAY, omg ahahahahaaa you so dumb!! No such thing as 'AP' when you can possibly lose money, durrrr, what you're saying is <continues rambling incoherently>. Believe me though because I'm a failed journalist and I have integrity even though I've never told the truth once in my life!!!!"

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This site really needs a thank you button.

MaxPen why are you arguing with me? You said in post #264 what kewlj will not accept.

Because technically there is no such thing as ACCUMULATED EV.

There is such a thing as Cumulative Earned Value though, which is what you are implying by using the term Accumulated Expected Value.

I did a Google search for the term "accumulated EV" and I found references to things like electric cars and Pokémon but nothing about gambling math.

I know you want to put me down and insult me but for once, just this one time, agree with me and even AxelWolf and tell kewlj to come up with another term.

Again, keep winning. But you're not accumulating EV.

I have held my tongue for weeks.

What KJ is referring to as accumulated EV essentially means expected profit or loss over time. Expected Value can be positive or negative.

It makes sense for a player to track this, whether he is an advantage player or a person who expects to lose. If you expect to win, you can extrapolate what your winnings will be over time. If you are a “recreational” (losing) player, at any decent stakes, you should expect comps correspondingly.

The casino tracks this, for all players who use cards, every minute of every day. They call it ADT and comp players accordingly.

Quick hypothetical question for you AP pros.

Let’s say you guys put me on a play that mathematically is worth $100.00 per hour. I play exactly as required for max advantage. Yet, for the first day of play, I play for 10 hours and end up losing $100.00 dollars per hour for a total loss of 1K. I go back the following day and unfortunately the same results happen. These same results sadly repeat for the whole week. I’m now down 7K.

The following week I only lose 4K under the same conditions. I’m now down 11K. The following week I lose another 6K. I’m now down after 3 weeks and 210 hours of play a total of 17K. All my free play went down the drain the same way, and I ate all the free comped food and still had to pay out of my pocket for most of it. Amazingly everyone around me are hitting all kinds of good shit, royals, etc.

How long should I expect to grind it out on the same play to recover the 17K I lost in cash along with the 21K I should have won, plus the additional $100.00 dollars per hour I should be winning to recover these losses to become mathematically sound again? Do I now have 38K plus expenses in the accumulated EV bank?

Then for an added hypothetical situation I eventually after months of endless 10-hour days on this play eventually end up losing my whole 100K bankroll. Should I get a loan knowing eventually I have to recover my banked accumulated EV along with all the profits the math said I must have?

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

I think that at least we have dispelled the myths of accumulating EV. And I think we did it without another round of hateful attacks.

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What myth. Oh, you mean that stupid shit in YOUR head?

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

Kewlj congratulations for having a good year. It's not because you're accumulating EV. It's because you're playing smart and the cards are coming your way.

I'm sorry but there's no such thing as accumulating EV. You can play with an EV, but you can't accumulate it.

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Dunce keeps proving he's a dunce.

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Originally Posted by Bill Yung

Ha, Alan has you wrapped around his little finger. You couldn't just write, thanks, Alan, you are okay, after all.

I tell you, any nut-job would be happy to call this place home. The entertainment value is off even MrV's "bullshit" meter. Puts you to sleep with a smile.

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And you certainly are a nut-job.

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

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Originally Posted by Bill Yung

Ha, Alan has you wrapped around his little finger. You couldn't just write, thanks, Alan, you are okay, after all.

I tell you, any nut-job would be happy to call this place home. The entertainment value is off even MrV's "bullshit" meter. Puts you to sleep with a smile.

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And you certainly are a nut-job.

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He proves that with all his stupid religious ramblings.

Which religious ramblings? In any event, a little real religion might have saved a lot of the gamblers, including the AP's, who "gamble by not gambling" (they require a "special" trap, ha), from a lifetime headache. What normal person comes to a gambling forum? Mickey Crimm???

Mickeycrimm it's time for you to stop trolling me and read what others are saying.

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Originally Posted by blackhole

Quick hypothetical question for you AP pros.

Let’s say you guys put me on a play that mathematically is worth $100.00 per hour. I play exactly as required for max advantage. Yet, for the first day of play, I play for 10 hours and end up losing $100.00 dollars per hour for a total loss of 1K. I go back the following day and unfortunately the same results happen. These same results sadly repeat for the whole week. I’m now down 7K.

The following week I only lose 4K under the same conditions. I’m now down 11K. The following week I lose another 6K. I’m now down after 3 weeks and 210 hours of play a total of 17K. All my free play went down the drain the same way, and I ate all the free comped food and still had to pay out of my pocket for most of it. Amazingly everyone around me are hitting all kinds of good shit, royals, etc.

How long should I expect to grind it out on the same play to recover the 17K I lost in cash along with the 21K I should have won, plus the additional $100.00 dollars per hour I should be winning to recover these losses to become mathematically sound again? Do I now have 38K plus expenses in the accumulated EV bank?

Then for an added hypothetical situation I eventually after months of endless 10-hour days on this play eventually end up losing my whole 100K bankroll. Should I get a loan knowing eventually I have to recover my banked accumulated EV along with all the profits the math said I must have?

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I don't want this to get lost. I am looking forward to the response.

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Originally Posted by Bill Yung

What normal person comes to a gambling forum?

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Define Normal. :D

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Originally Posted by RS__

I swear 99% of the time this forum is something like:

AP: "Had a good day, happy I generated a lot of EV."

*Alan shuffling through his Webster's dictionary trying to find a way to refute what the AP said*

Alan: "Oh I gotcha, I GOTCHA!!!! You said FREE PLAY but what you meant is SLOT PLAY, omg ahahahahaaa you so dumb!! No such thing as 'AP' when you can possibly lose money, durrrr, what you're saying is <continues rambling incoherently>. Believe me though because I'm a failed journalist and I have integrity even though I've never told the truth once in my life!!!!"

---

Of course one could go to a blackjack site and not post. Or get banned for talking about blackjack. :cool:

Quote:

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

Quote:

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Originally Posted by AxelWolf

There is no such thing as accumulated EV PERIOD.

---

What are you nuts? :confused: You joining the Alan club?


Today I played 2 sessions at 2 different casinos. Both were heads up with the dealer (during football games).

Session 1 was a double deck game. Based on rules, penetration and my spread, each round played was worth $1.80. I played 140 rounds. Expected value: $252.

Session 2 was 6 deck game. Based on rules, penetration, and my spread, each round was worth $1.20. I played 180 rounds. Expected value: $216.

Total expected value (accumulated EV) for the day: $468. (this happened to be well above my daily average for just a couple hours play due to the heads up sessions).

Whether I won or lost today is completely irrelevant. I accumulated $468 in EV. If I were to accumulate this same EV every day for a year that would be $170,000 in EV and over such a larger trial, my actual results would be right in that neighborhood.

One of the purposes of accumulating EV is that different games have different values. Not only different blackjack games, but all advantage play opportunities. More well rounded AP's that I (like you), build EV at all sorts of different AP plays. That EV is all thrown into the pot and at the end of the year (or some other longterm period), your accumulated EV and actual results will be pretty close. That is what accumulated EV is all about.

If accumulated EV and actual results are continually not close, there is likely something wrong, like you are being cheated (highly unlikely except if your online handle begins with zen***g) or your game(s) have holes in them, meaning you are making mistakes, or doing something undisciplined like chasing losses.

---

Let say you played for a year "accumulating" lots EV, however, you ran super duper bad and lost a shit ton and then you died. What would happen to that accumulated EV? Did you leave it to your brother in your will? If you leave all your accumulated EV to your mom and she doesn't play, how will she collect and what happens to that accumulated EV?

I also gave an example of nickel VP player accumulating 5 mill in EV on a fluke play. Perhaps you can comment on that.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by AxelWolf

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by kewlJ

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by AxelWolf

There is no such thing as accumulated EV PERIOD.

---

What are you nuts? :confused: You joining the Alan club?


Today I played 2 sessions at 2 different casinos. Both were heads up with the dealer (during football games).

Session 1 was a double deck game. Based on rules, penetration and my spread, each round played was worth $1.80. I played 140 rounds. Expected value: $252.

Session 2 was 6 deck game. Based on rules, penetration, and my spread, each round was worth $1.20. I played 180 rounds. Expected value: $216.

Total expected value (accumulated EV) for the day: $468. (this happened to be well above my daily average for just a couple hours play due to the heads up sessions).

Whether I won or lost today is completely irrelevant. I accumulated $468 in EV. If I were to accumulate this same EV every day for a year that would be $170,000 in EV and over such a larger trial, my actual results would be right in that neighborhood.

One of the purposes of accumulating EV is that different games have different values. Not only different blackjack games, but all advantage play opportunities. More well rounded AP's that I (like you), build EV at all sorts of different AP plays. That EV is all thrown into the pot and at the end of the year (or some other longterm period), your accumulated EV and actual results will be pretty close. That is what accumulated EV is all about.

If accumulated EV and actual results are continually not close, there is likely something wrong, like you are being cheated (highly unlikely except if your online handle begins with zen***g) or your game(s) have holes in them, meaning you are making mistakes, or doing something undisciplined like chasing losses.

---

Let say you played for a year "accumulating" lots EV, however, you ran super duper bad and lost a shit ton and then you died. What would happen to that accumulated EV? Did you leave it to your brother in your will? If you leave all your accumulated EV to your mom and she doesn't play, how will she collect and what happens to that accumulated EV?

I also gave an example of nickel VP player accumulating 5 mill in EV on a fluke play. Perhaps you can comment on that.

---

I can't comment on the nickel VP example because I am not really a VP or machine type AP. As you know my experience in this area was very limited, with the +EV coming from the disproportionate bonuses in monthly mailers, which has been on the decline. For this and other reason (partner passing and I wanting to focus more on blackjack), I am all but out of the machine play supplemental stuff I was doing.

But I will comment on your first example. Died after an extended losing period of a year? Come on...you are being absurd. Pick the most extreme example you can come up with while don't you. You really seem to be crossing over into Alan territory here. What is that about? :confused:

Quote:

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Deech

I agree. Never liked the term. Give the overall math another vernacular.

---

Don't agree with him. He is being a douche for some reason. You actually laid out the perfect example of what accumulated EV is in your above post concerning FPDW play. Now imagine you play not only that game but several different games. You figure out where you are (actual results) in relationship to expectation by accumulated EV.

---

I said from the beginning when you first talked about your best day ever, after losing $8800(or whatever amount it was) that you couldn't accumulate/bank EV.

I did say that I understood what you were are getting at. I know things tend to average out given enough play. So no, I'm not trying to be a Dbag.
How many hands of BJ do you play per year on avrage? I bet it's mathematically odd that you are coming close to you EV each year. There should be some guys who are making way over the EV and some guys going way under and everywhere else in between.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

Okay you're telling me you can add up expected value? Then add up the expected value of just five (5) hands of blackjack. Show your work.

As an example of what I want to see, I'm going to throw a single die five times:

5 + 1 + 1 + 4 + 2 = 13

Now can you add up your five hands of accumulated EV?

---

Five hands of blackjack? Five rolls of the die? (I would have said dice, but I went with your usage)

Herein lies the problem. Alan, you think short term in every situation. Gamblers think short-term. Short term involves variance and everything you say and seem to focus on is about short term variance. The wins. The daily losses. The royal hits.

AP's think longterm. We know that short-term results....wins or losses, are just variance. We want to get past the variance and get to the long-term where the math takes over and if we are playing with an advantage, we will realize that advantage and our actual results (wins) will be pretty close to expectation.

It is as simple as this: Someone who only thinks short-term can't possible understand AP concepts involving the long term. They just can't! They are wired differently. YOU are wired differently (short term thinking).

So there really is no sense in going over and over and around in circles. You are not going to understand or accept. You are an earth is flat guy (short-term thinker) and no matter how much you are shown proof that the earth is round, you come back to the same response of "yeah but if it was round, I would fall off".

There just in no sense in continuing this or most discussions any more. There has to be a time that we give in to the true definition of insanity. :(

Quote:

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

Quote:

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Originally Posted by AxelWolf

Quote:

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

What are you nuts? :confused: You joining the Alan club?


Today I played 2 sessions at 2 different casinos. Both were heads up with the dealer (during football games).

Session 1 was a double deck game. Based on rules, penetration and my spread, each round played was worth $1.80. I played 140 rounds. Expected value: $252.

Session 2 was 6 deck game. Based on rules, penetration, and my spread, each round was worth $1.20. I played 180 rounds. Expected value: $216.

Total expected value (accumulated EV) for the day: $468. (this happened to be well above my daily average for just a couple hours play due to the heads up sessions).

Whether I won or lost today is completely irrelevant. I accumulated $468 in EV. If I were to accumulate this same EV every day for a year that would be $170,000 in EV and over such a larger trial, my actual results would be right in that neighborhood.

One of the purposes of accumulating EV is that different games have different values. Not only different blackjack games, but all advantage play opportunities. More well rounded AP's that I (like you), build EV at all sorts of different AP plays. That EV is all thrown into the pot and at the end of the year (or some other longterm period), your accumulated EV and actual results will be pretty close. That is what accumulated EV is all about.

If accumulated EV and actual results are continually not close, there is likely something wrong, like you are being cheated (highly unlikely except if your online handle begins with zen***g) or your game(s) have holes in them, meaning you are making mistakes, or doing something undisciplined like chasing losses.

---

Let say you played for a year "accumulating" lots EV, however, you ran super duper bad and lost a shit ton and then you died. What would happen to that accumulated EV? Did you leave it to your brother in your will? If you leave all your accumulated EV to your mom and she doesn't play, how will she collect and what happens to that accumulated EV?

I also gave an example of nickel VP player accumulating 5 mill in EV on a fluke play. Perhaps you can comment on that.

---

I can't comment on the nickel VP example because I am not really a VP or machine type AP. As you know my experience in this area was very limited, with the +EV coming from the disproportionate bonuses in monthly mailers, which has been on the decline. For this and other reason (partner passing and I wanting to focus more on blackjack), I am all but out of the machine play supplemental stuff I was doing.

But I will comment on your first example. Died after an extended losing period of a year? Come on...you are being absurd. Pick the most extreme example you can come up with while don't you. You really seem to be crossing over into Alan territory here. What is that about? :confused:

---

OK, lets say you have a low limit card counter(his EV is $2 an hour). He finds a casino in the middle of BFE. The casino if offering drawing tickets for certain hands on blackjack. The drawing is for a 5 million. The dude has 99% of the tickets, but he gets snapped off. What becomes of his 4.95 mill of accumulated EV? How in the hell will a $2 CC ever avrage out? He won't even get 500k of that accumulated EV, let alone the full amount. Someone allready got his EV.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by AxelWolf

I did say that I understood what you were are getting at. I know things tend to average out given enough play. So no, I'm not trying to be a Dbag.

---

If you understand what I was getting at, then don't play devil's advocate. It only emboldens Alan. I can guarantee when he read you say "there is no such thing as accumulating EV", Alan jizzed in his pants from excitement.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by AxelWolf

How many hands of BJ do you play per year on avrage? I bet it's mathematically odd that you are coming close to you EV each year. There should be some guys who are making way over the EV and some guys going way under and everywhere else in between.

---

I play 60-70 thousand rounds in recent years. Over 80 thousand for this year and still going. Might hit 100k rounds depending on how much time off I decide to take at the end of the year. I used to play 100 thousand rounds regularly when I was playing lower stakes and really grinding, so this amount of play isn't new to me, just different. Higher EV per round for a variety of reasons (including tracking multiple tables ;))

I come reasonably close to accumulated EV each year. And even with that there have been a couple outliers, one in each direction, which says to me that my 60-70 thousand rounds is not long-term. But if you take any 2 years of my results (instead of one), you really come close to accumulated EV. And that includes the outlier years. Since they occurred back to back, you add them together and boom....results are right at accumulated EV or expectation.

See that last half line that I wrote: "accumulated EV or expectation"? I think that is the whole issue here. If I had initially used the word "expectation" instead of accumulated EV, I wouldn't have gotten the argument from Alan.

But what is expectation? It is an accumulation of expected value (for each round played)….thus accumulated EV. :rolleyes:

Quote:

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Originally Posted by AxelWolf

OK, lets say you have a low limit card counter(his EV is $2 an hour). He finds a casino in the middle of BFE. The casino if offering drawing tickets for certain hands on blackjack. The drawing is for a 5 million. The dude has 99% of the tickets, but he gets snapped off. What becomes of his 4.95 mill of accumulated EV? How in the hell will a $2 CC ever avrage out? He won't even get 500k of that accumulated EV, let alone the full amount. Someone allready got his EV.

---

COME ON!?! What are you doing here....trying to find the most extreme examples you can? Dying after an extremely negative year? A drawing for $5 million? :confused:

I am trying to keep it simple and you are going for the most extreme examples you can come up with. :rolleyes: There is a phrase for what you are doing. It is trying to come up with a "gottch ya" moment. It happens to be from the troll playbook. That's what it seems like you are doing here Axel. WTF? Are you switching sides here? Wouldn't be the first time you did a little switch-hitting, now would it, Axel? ;)


Anyway, I gotta go to work. Time to make the donuts, err...French fries. Oh wait, I forgot.....I tell everyone I am an AP here. Time to do AP stuff. ;)

How many of them 80 hands of BJ are during positive counts? What percent on avrage are you making?

Can you walk us through your day and how you get so many hands in with what I assume are short sessions to avoid heat while hopping around from casino to casino?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

Quote:

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Originally Posted by AxelWolf

OK, lets say you have a low limit card counter(his EV is $2 an hour). He finds a casino in the middle of BFE. The casino if offering drawing tickets for certain hands on blackjack. The drawing is for a 5 million. The dude has 99% of the tickets, but he gets snapped off. What becomes of his 4.95 mill of accumulated EV? How in the hell will a $2 CC ever avrage out? He won't even get 500k of that accumulated EV, let alone the full amount. Someone allready got his EV.

---

COME ON!?! What are you doing here....trying to find the most extreme examples you can? Dying after an extremely negative year? A drawing for $5 million? :confused:

I am trying to keep it simple and you are going for the most extreme examples you can come up with. :rolleyes: There is a phrase for what you are doing. It is trying to come up with a "gottch ya" moment. It happens to be from the troll playbook. That's what it seems like you are doing here Axel. WTF? Are you switching sides here? Wouldn't be the first time you did a little switch-hitting, now would it, Axel? ;)


Anyway, I gotta go to work. Time to make the donuts, err...French fries. Oh wait, I forgot.....I tell everyone I am an AP here. Time to do AP stuff. ;)

---

Yes, extreme examples, because if you can explain how that works to me then I can learn something and perhaps I will change my mind and believe someone CAN accumulate EV.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by AxelWolf

How many of them 80 hands of BJ are during positive counts? What percent on avrage are you making?

Can you walk us through your day and how you get so many hands in with what I assume are short sessions to avoid heat while hopping around from casino to casino?

---

Real quick. I don't have an exact number for what hands are at what count. It's not like I am taking notes and keeping records at the table. We use computer simulations and averages for that.

But I will tell you tell you this. This is where some of the techniques that I employ come into play. Tracking multiple tables. Short sessions, escaping the worst of the negative counts. These are things that in the long-run, change the true count frequencies in my favor. I play fewer negative counts (wonging out), replacing them (tracking and jumping to a second table) with more +EV and max bet opportunities. This significantly increases win rate. :cool:

Anyway, I really gotta jet. I have done that walk through a typical day before (maybe at WoV). I am happy to do so again, if there is interest by you or anyone else. But I can't do it now. If you really are interested, I am happy to come back to this later today or tomorrow.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Moses

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Bill Yung

What normal person comes to a gambling forum?

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Define Normal. :D

---

Normal is what you don't have to define. But leave it to an AP to mess that up. "Hey, I feel normal, but don't ask me to explain it."

Perhaps, it's the mental state free of the sadistic and masochistic gyrations of gambling. In general, getting yourself out of the baloney of life at least enough to laugh and cheer at the ones who, eg, have to compare themselves to donut and fry flippers to reconcile their sitting at a blackjack table or slot machine all day/night.

Many of those "flippers" go on to build up those businesses for themselves to employ others alongside themselves in their own shifts, by the age of 40. By age 50, they no longer work, except for overseeing the "flipping", but then take home a hundred thousand a year (before taxes).

How old did you say you are, KJ? Are you going to send in your mother to play for you, in a few more years?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by AxelWolf

Quote:

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

Quote:

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Originally Posted by AxelWolf

There is no such thing as accumulated EV PERIOD.

---

What are you nuts? :confused: You joining the Alan club?


Today I played 2 sessions at 2 different casinos. Both were heads up with the dealer (during football games).

Session 1 was a double deck game. Based on rules, penetration and my spread, each round played was worth $1.80. I played 140 rounds. Expected value: $252.

Session 2 was 6 deck game. Based on rules, penetration, and my spread, each round was worth $1.20. I played 180 rounds. Expected value: $216.

Total expected value (accumulated EV) for the day: $468. (this happened to be well above my daily average for just a couple hours play due to the heads up sessions).

Whether I won or lost today is completely irrelevant. I accumulated $468 in EV. If I were to accumulate this same EV every day for a year that would be $170,000 in EV and over such a larger trial, my actual results would be right in that neighborhood.

One of the purposes of accumulating EV is that different games have different values. Not only different blackjack games, but all advantage play opportunities. More well rounded AP's that I (like you), build EV at all sorts of different AP plays. That EV is all thrown into the pot and at the end of the year (or some other longterm period), your accumulated EV and actual results will be pretty close. That is what accumulated EV is all about.

If accumulated EV and actual results are continually not close, there is likely something wrong, like you are being cheated (highly unlikely except if your online handle begins with zen***g) or your game(s) have holes in them, meaning you are making mistakes, or doing something undisciplined like chasing losses.

---

Let say you played for a year "accumulating" lots EV, however, you ran super duper bad and lost a shit ton and then you died. What would happen to that accumulated EV? Did you leave it to your brother in your will? If you leave all your accumulated EV to your mom and she doesn't play, how will she collect and what happens to that accumulated EV?

I also gave an example of nickel VP player accumulating 5 mill in EV on a fluke play. Perhaps you can comment on that.

---

"Accumulated EV" is past tense not future tense.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by blackhole

Quick hypothetical question for you AP pros.

Let’s say you guys put me on a play that mathematically is worth $100.00 per hour. I play exactly as required for max advantage. Yet, for the first day of play, I play for 10 hours and end up losing $100.00 dollars per hour for a total loss of 1K. I go back the following day and unfortunately the same results happen. These same results sadly repeat for the whole week. I’m now down 7K.

The following week I only lose 4K under the same conditions. I’m now down 11K. The following week I lose another 6K. I’m now down after 3 weeks and 210 hours of play a total of 17K. All my free play went down the drain the same way, and I ate all the free comped food and still had to pay out of my pocket for most of it. Amazingly everyone around me are hitting all kinds of good shit, royals, etc.

How long should I expect to grind it out on the same play to recover the 17K I lost in cash along with the 21K I should have won, plus the additional $100.00 dollars per hour I should be winning to recover these losses to become mathematically sound again? Do I now have 38K plus expenses in the accumulated EV bank?

Then for an added hypothetical situation I eventually after months of endless 10-hour days on this play eventually end up losing my whole 100K bankroll. Should I get a loan knowing eventually I have to recover my banked accumulated EV along with all the profits the math said I must have?

---

Why is it you dunces always talk about losing on positive plays but always talk about winning on negative plays?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

Why is it you dunces always talk about losing on positive plays but always talk about winning on negative plays?

---

This is actually a great way to sum up the AP stuff. You guys lose out on all the great things of life while embrace the casino nonsense.

You just have to look at things in a different way, at a different level, to make sense of what seems otherwise nonsensical to find something truly profound.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by blackhole

Quick hypothetical question for you AP pros.

Let’s say you guys put me on a play that mathematically is worth $100.00 per hour. I play exactly as required for max advantage. Yet, for the first day of play, I play for 10 hours and end up losing $100.00 dollars per hour for a total loss of 1K. I go back the following day and unfortunately the same results happen. These same results sadly repeat for the whole week. I’m now down 7K.

The following week I only lose 4K under the same conditions. I’m now down 11K. The following week I lose another 6K. I’m now down after 3 weeks and 210 hours of play a total of 17K. All my free play went down the drain the same way, and I ate all the free comped food and still had to pay out of my pocket for most of it. Amazingly everyone around me are hitting all kinds of good shit, royals, etc.

How long should I expect to grind it out on the same play to recover the 17K I lost in cash along with the 21K I should have won, plus the additional $100.00 dollars per hour I should be winning to recover these losses to become mathematically sound again? Do I now have 38K plus expenses in the accumulated EV bank?

Then for an added hypothetical situation I eventually after months of endless 10-hour days on this play eventually end up losing my whole 100K bankroll. Should I get a loan knowing eventually I have to recover my banked accumulated EV along with all the profits the math said I must have?

---

Why is it you dunces always talk about losing on positive plays but always talk about winning on negative plays?

---

So you're saying my totally mathematically possible conditions above can't and never happen?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by AxelWolf

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by kewlJ

What are you nuts? :confused: You joining the Alan club?


Today I played 2 sessions at 2 different casinos. Both were heads up with the dealer (during football games).

Session 1 was a double deck game. Based on rules, penetration and my spread, each round played was worth $1.80. I played 140 rounds. Expected value: $252.

Session 2 was 6 deck game. Based on rules, penetration, and my spread, each round was worth $1.20. I played 180 rounds. Expected value: $216.

Total expected value (accumulated EV) for the day: $468. (this happened to be well above my daily average for just a couple hours play due to the heads up sessions).

Whether I won or lost today is completely irrelevant. I accumulated $468 in EV. If I were to accumulate this same EV every day for a year that would be $170,000 in EV and over such a larger trial, my actual results would be right in that neighborhood.

One of the purposes of accumulating EV is that different games have different values. Not only different blackjack games, but all advantage play opportunities. More well rounded AP's that I (like you), build EV at all sorts of different AP plays. That EV is all thrown into the pot and at the end of the year (or some other longterm period), your accumulated EV and actual results will be pretty close. That is what accumulated EV is all about.

If accumulated EV and actual results are continually not close, there is likely something wrong, like you are being cheated (highly unlikely except if your online handle begins with zen***g) or your game(s) have holes in them, meaning you are making mistakes, or doing something undisciplined like chasing losses.

---

Let say you played for a year "accumulating" lots EV, however, you ran super duper bad and lost a shit ton and then you died. What would happen to that accumulated EV? Did you leave it to your brother in your will? If you leave all your accumulated EV to your mom and she doesn't play, how will she collect and what happens to that accumulated EV?

I also gave an example of nickel VP player accumulating 5 mill in EV on a fluke play. Perhaps you can comment on that.

---

"Accumulated EV" is past tense not future tense.

---

If we go back to when KJ originally brought this up, it sounded as if he was ok with a 8,800 loss because he had accumulated lots of EV and it would avrage out and he would get back that loss plus his accumulated EV. IMO, It was getting dangerously close to the dueness theory.

He had good value. And of course, If he keeps putting himself into good value situations eventually good things should happen.

I just have a problem wrapping my head around if an individual can accumulate EV and what exactly does one mean by that? It might be the wrong term to use.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by blackhole

Quick hypothetical question for you AP pros.

Let’s say you guys put me on a play that mathematically is worth $100.00 per hour. I play exactly as required for max advantage. Yet, for the first day of play, I play for 10 hours and end up losing $100.00 dollars per hour for a total loss of 1K. I go back the following day and unfortunately the same results happen. These same results sadly repeat for the whole week. I’m now down 7K.

The following week I only lose 4K under the same conditions. I’m now down 11K. The following week I lose another 6K. I’m now down after 3 weeks and 210 hours of play a total of 17K. All my free play went down the drain the same way, and I ate all the free comped food and still had to pay out of my pocket for most of it. Amazingly everyone around me are hitting all kinds of good shit, royals, etc.

How long should I expect to grind it out on the same play to recover the 17K I lost in cash along with the 21K I should have won, plus the additional $100.00 dollars per hour I should be winning to recover these losses to become mathematically sound again? Do I now have 38K plus expenses in the accumulated EV bank?

Then for an added hypothetical situation I eventually after months of endless 10-hour days on this play eventually end up losing my whole 100K bankroll. Should I get a loan knowing eventually I have to recover my banked accumulated EV along with all the profits the math said I must have?

---

Personally, I would not play something that had that scenario in the range of possible outcomes. This is the same reason why you don't see AP teams targeting progressives that are 1 in millions shots even though they are +EV.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by blackhole

So you're saying my totally mathematically possible conditions above can't and never happen?

---

The casinos didn't exactly lose with the advent and popularization of, eg, card counting. Didn't casino-surveillance expert Bill Zender write that there are only about 100 persons around the world who can hurt a casino with card counting?

In fact, the casinos can already stop all card counting, anytime they want to. There is a camera system to automatically determine a counter after about twenty hands? There are CSM's, and poorer variants of blackjack. Why don't they?

It's more profitable to let the Crimm's think that they have some sort of impact.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by AxelWolf

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by AxelWolf

Let say you played for a year "accumulating" lots EV, however, you ran super duper bad and lost a shit ton and then you died. What would happen to that accumulated EV? Did you leave it to your brother in your will? If you leave all your accumulated EV to your mom and she doesn't play, how will she collect and what happens to that accumulated EV?

I also gave an example of nickel VP player accumulating 5 mill in EV on a fluke play. Perhaps you can comment on that.

---

"Accumulated EV" is past tense not future tense.

---

If we go back to when KJ originally brought this up, it sounded as if he was ok with a 8,800 loss because he had accumulated lots of EV and it would avrage out and he would get back that loss plus his accumulated EV. IMO, It was getting dangerously close to the dueness theory.

He had good value. And of course, If he keeps putting himself into good value situations eventually good things should happen.

I just have a problem wrapping my head around if an individual can accumulate EV and what exactly does one mean by that? It might be the wrong term to use.

---

I agree. Kewl made it sound like the accumulated EV was worth something in hand. I think it is actually very clear what he really means and whether the terminology was perfect is a different story. But the way he first presented it it did seem like there was an expectation that he would now win after the big loss. That expectation should be based upon playing games with an edge (which still isn't automatic), not accumulated EV.

If you have an edge and play games on which you have an edge, you have a good chance to win. Still no guaranty. But I think when you phrase it as if you have something called accumulated EV to cash in later, you are deluding yourself. If you had a 2% edge on the hands during the losing streak, you still have a 2% edge on the next hand (obviously subject to a very favorable count, etc.). The accumulated EV hasn't changed your edge.

It may be a number that you find useful for other reasons as you have previously described, and that is fine. I would think that with all of your experience you know what your Ev is and what your edge is and don't need to monitor the number. But WTF do I know.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by MaxPen

Quote:

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Originally Posted by blackhole

Quick hypothetical question for you AP pros.

Let’s say you guys put me on a play that mathematically is worth $100.00 per hour. I play exactly as required for max advantage. Yet, for the first day of play, I play for 10 hours and end up losing $100.00 dollars per hour for a total loss of 1K. I go back the following day and unfortunately the same results happen. These same results sadly repeat for the whole week. I’m now down 7K.

The following week I only lose 4K under the same conditions. I’m now down 11K. The following week I lose another 6K. I’m now down after 3 weeks and 210 hours of play a total of 17K. All my free play went down the drain the same way, and I ate all the free comped food and still had to pay out of my pocket for most of it. Amazingly everyone around me are hitting all kinds of good shit, royals, etc.

How long should I expect to grind it out on the same play to recover the 17K I lost in cash along with the 21K I should have won, plus the additional $100.00 dollars per hour I should be winning to recover these losses to become mathematically sound again? Do I now have 38K plus expenses in the accumulated EV bank?

Then for an added hypothetical situation I eventually after months of endless 10-hour days on this play eventually end up losing my whole 100K bankroll. Should I get a loan knowing eventually I have to recover my banked accumulated EV along with all the profits the math said I must have?

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Personally, I would not play something that had that scenario in the range of possible outcomes. This is the same reason why you don't see AP teams targeting progressives that are 1 in millions shots even though they are +EV.

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So you wouldn't play something that should profit $100.00 per hour? What do you mean in the range of outcomes? Where and when in my example did progressives come into play?

What the FUCK are you talking about?

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

Okay you're telling me you can add up expected value? Then add up the expected value of just five (5) hands of blackjack. Show your work.

As an example of what I want to see, I'm going to throw a single die five times:

5 + 1 + 1 + 4 + 2 = 13

Now can you add up your five hands of accumulated EV?

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Five hands of blackjack? Five rolls of the die? (I would have said dice, but I went with your usage)

Herein lies the problem. Alan, you think short term in every situation. Gamblers think short-term. Short term involves variance and everything you say and seem to focus on is about short term variance. The wins. The daily losses. The royal hits.

AP's think longterm. We know that short-term results....wins or losses, are just variance. We want to get past the variance and get to the long-term where the math takes over and if we are playing with an advantage, we will realize that advantage and our actual results (wins) will be pretty close to expectation.

It is as simple as this: Someone who only thinks short-term can't possible understand AP concepts involving the long term. They just can't! They are wired differently. YOU are wired differently (short term thinking).

So there really is no sense in going over and over and around in circles. You are not going to understand or accept. You are an earth is flat guy (short-term thinker) and no matter how much you are shown proof that the earth is round, you come back to the same response of "yeah but if it was round, I would fall off".

There just in no sense in continuing this or most discussions any more. There has to be a time that we give in to the true definition of insanity. :(

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No it has nothing to do with short term. I was making it easy for you.

Okay Mr Genius. Add up 100,000 hands of accumulated EV if that's what you want to do. I can add up 100,000 rolls of a DIE but you can't add up 100,000 hands of EV because it's impossible.

I'll tell you what you can do. You can say "I have an expected value of $12.45 on every $10 I play." (I picked those numbers at random.) BUT YOU CAN'T ADD THEM. The same EV carries over from one hand to the next.

Your theory is bogus. Frankly I think you thought it up in an attempt to compete with Shackleford who tossed you out. I'm sure if you posted this drivel on his site he'd tell you you're all wrong.

Congratulations on being a good player and winning. Just don't mess with the English language.

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Originally Posted by AxelWolf

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

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Originally Posted by AxelWolf

Let say you played for a year "accumulating" lots EV, however, you ran super duper bad and lost a shit ton and then you died. What would happen to that accumulated EV? Did you leave it to your brother in your will? If you leave all your accumulated EV to your mom and she doesn't play, how will she collect and what happens to that accumulated EV?

I also gave an example of nickel VP player accumulating 5 mill in EV on a fluke play. Perhaps you can comment on that.

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"Accumulated EV" is past tense not future tense.

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If we go back to when KJ originally brought this up, it sounded as if he was ok with a 8,800 loss because he had accumulated lots of EV and it would avrage out and he would get back that loss plus his accumulated EV. IMO, It was getting dangerously close to the dueness theory.

He had good value. And of course, If he keeps putting himself into good value situations eventually good things should happen.

I just have a problem wrapping my head around if an individual can accumulate EV and what exactly does one mean by that? It might be the wrong term to use.

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I agree with you AxelWolf 100%.

I also think kewlj needs to take a break from this forum. This previous statement by him shows he's got some issues:

If you understand what I was getting at, then don't play devil's advocate. It only emboldens Alan. I can guarantee when he read you say "there is no such thing as accumulating EV", Alan jizzed in his pants from excitement.

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Originally Posted by regnis

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Originally Posted by AxelWolf

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

"Accumulated EV" is past tense not future tense.

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If we go back to when KJ originally brought this up, it sounded as if he was ok with a 8,800 loss because he had accumulated lots of EV and it would avrage out and he would get back that loss plus his accumulated EV. IMO, It was getting dangerously close to the dueness theory.

He had good value. And of course, If he keeps putting himself into good value situations eventually good things should happen.

I just have a problem wrapping my head around if an individual can accumulate EV and what exactly does one mean by that? It might be the wrong term to use.

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I agree. Kewl made it sound like the accumulated EV was worth something in hand. I think it is actually very clear what he really means and whether the terminology was perfect is a different story. But the way he first presented it it did seem like there was an expectation that he would now win after the big loss. That expectation should be based upon playing games with an edge (which still isn't automatic), not accumulated EV.

If you have an edge and play games on which you have an edge, you have a good chance to win. Still no guaranty. But I think when you phrase it as if you have something called accumulated EV to cash in later, you are deluding yourself. If you had a 2% edge on the hands during the losing streak, you still have a 2% edge on the next hand (obviously subject to a very favorable count, etc.). The accumulated EV hasn't changed your edge.

It may be a number that you find useful for other reasons as you have previously described, and that is fine. I would think that with all of your experience you know what your Ev is and what your edge is and don't need to monitor the number. But WTF do I know.

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You know a lot and this was well said.

I just hope Dr Evil doesn't figure out how to steal our accumulated EV.

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Originally Posted by blackhole

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Originally Posted by MaxPen

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Originally Posted by blackhole

Quick hypothetical question for you AP pros.

Let’s say you guys put me on a play that mathematically is worth $100.00 per hour. I play exactly as required for max advantage. Yet, for the first day of play, I play for 10 hours and end up losing $100.00 dollars per hour for a total loss of 1K. I go back the following day and unfortunately the same results happen. These same results sadly repeat for the whole week. I’m now down 7K.

The following week I only lose 4K under the same conditions. I’m now down 11K. The following week I lose another 6K. I’m now down after 3 weeks and 210 hours of play a total of 17K. All my free play went down the drain the same way, and I ate all the free comped food and still had to pay out of my pocket for most of it. Amazingly everyone around me are hitting all kinds of good shit, royals, etc.

How long should I expect to grind it out on the same play to recover the 17K I lost in cash along with the 21K I should have won, plus the additional $100.00 dollars per hour I should be winning to recover these losses to become mathematically sound again? Do I now have 38K plus expenses in the accumulated EV bank?

Then for an added hypothetical situation I eventually after months of endless 10-hour days on this play eventually end up losing my whole 100K bankroll. Should I get a loan knowing eventually I have to recover my banked accumulated EV along with all the profits the math said I must have?

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Personally, I would not play something that had that scenario in the range of possible outcomes. This is the same reason why you don't see AP teams targeting progressives that are 1 in millions shots even though they are +EV.

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So you wouldn't play something that should profit $100.00 per hour? What do you mean in the range of outcomes? Where and when in my example did progressives come into play?

What the FUCK are you talking about?

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It's going to be tough to explain anything to you since you don't know anything about AP. It'd be like trying to explain to a dog why 2^3=8, when the dog doesn't even have a concept of numbers, let alone math.

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

You know a lot and this was well said.

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KJ thinks that, as long as he's counting a few cards, the gambler's fallacy (and other things he just makes up about math, and his earnings) doesn't apply to him.

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Originally Posted by AxelWolf

I just hope Dr Evil doesn't figure out how to steal our accumulated EV.

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Shackleford is the biggest "shill" going. Why do you think that they call him "the Manboy"? A bunch of crooks set him up with a 2.3 mil stack of chips that aren't his own, and told him to put himself in a box from which to try to think out of the box. He's still in the box.

Now we have RS__ talking about teaching math to a dog. I can actually see that happening the other way around. The dog will learn faster than him.

These are the tough questions, and we all know how kew reacts to the tough questions.

To any sensible, thinking, halfway intelligent person however, it's no mystery how much of kew's tit got stuck in the wringer when he crafted the silly term "accumulated EV". He did this first to try and sound smart, then to impress. But in the typical "make it up on the go" methodology used by this phony, he never, ever thought anyone would challenge--or even question--him on such an idiotic gaming assertion.

At the end of ANYONE WITH A BRAIN'S DAY, what he knows he really was talking about was being "due", which put him smack dab into Gambler's Fallacy territory.

He is such a complete moron in basically every which way he presents himself....

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Originally Posted by Rob.Singer

These are the tough questions, and we all know how kew reacts to the tough questions.

To any sensible, thinking, halfway intelligent person however, it's no mystery how much of kew's tit got stuck in the wringer when he crafted the silly term "accumulated EV". He did this first to try and sound smart, then to impress. But in the typical "make it up on the go" methodology used by this phony, he never, ever thought anyone would challenge--or even question--him on such an idiotic gaming assertion.

At the end of ANYONE WITH A BRAIN'S DAY, what he knows he really was talking about was being "due", which put him smack dab into Gambler's Fallacy territory.

He is such a complete moron in basically every which way he presents himself....

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You are all to familiar with the fallacy of being due. Your whole system is built around it. To bad playing VP with -EV always results in losses long term. As you fall asleep in the camper do you often wonder why you were so stupid?

Okay MaxPen you win. Rob's system includes "being due" to hit a big winner... and kewlj's "accumulated EV" is about being due to hit winners as well.

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Originally Posted by AxelWolf

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

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Originally Posted by AxelWolf

Let say you played for a year "accumulating" lots EV, however, you ran super duper bad and lost a shit ton and then you died. What would happen to that accumulated EV? Did you leave it to your brother in your will? If you leave all your accumulated EV to your mom and she doesn't play, how will she collect and what happens to that accumulated EV?

I also gave an example of nickel VP player accumulating 5 mill in EV on a fluke play. Perhaps you can comment on that.

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I can't comment on the nickel VP example because I am not really a VP or machine type AP. As you know my experience in this area was very limited, with the +EV coming from the disproportionate bonuses in monthly mailers, which has been on the decline. For this and other reason (partner passing and I wanting to focus more on blackjack), I am all but out of the machine play supplemental stuff I was doing.

But I will comment on your first example. Died after an extended losing period of a year? Come on...you are being absurd. Pick the most extreme example you can come up with while don't you. You really seem to be crossing over into Alan territory here. What is that about? :confused:

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OK, lets say you have a low limit card counter(his EV is $2 an hour). He finds a casino in the middle of BFE. The casino if offering drawing tickets for certain hands on blackjack. The drawing is for a 5 million. The dude has 99% of the tickets, but he gets snapped off. What becomes of his 4.95 mill of accumulated EV? How in the hell will a $2 CC ever avrage out? He won't even get 500k of that accumulated EV, let alone the full amount. Someone allready got his EV.

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He had a bad day just like KJ described in the $8800 loss day.

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Originally Posted by Bill Yung

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

Why is it you dunces always talk about losing on positive plays but always talk about winning on negative plays?

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This is actually a great way to sum up the AP stuff. You guys lose out on all the great things of life while embrace the casino nonsense.

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Look at all the great things in life you missed out on while flipping burgers at work.

What? Putting rocks in socks to hurt black persons in riots? I did miss out on that part of life.

Ha, one day I slept in, and was late for the pizza store rush-hour at lunchtime. About as close as I came to a riot.

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Originally Posted by AxelWolf

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

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Originally Posted by AxelWolf

Let say you played for a year "accumulating" lots EV, however, you ran super duper bad and lost a shit ton and then you died. What would happen to that accumulated EV? Did you leave it to your brother in your will? If you leave all your accumulated EV to your mom and she doesn't play, how will she collect and what happens to that accumulated EV?

I also gave an example of nickel VP player accumulating 5 mill in EV on a fluke play. Perhaps you can comment on that.

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"Accumulated EV" is past tense not future tense.

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If we go back to when KJ originally brought this up, it sounded as if he was ok with a 8,800 loss because he had accumulated lots of EV and it would avrage out and he would get back that loss plus his accumulated EV. IMO, It was getting dangerously close to the dueness theory.

He had good value. And of course, If he keeps putting himself into good value situations eventually good things should happen.

I just have a problem wrapping my head around if an individual can accumulate EV and what exactly does one mean by that? It might be the wrong term to use.

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When I read KJ's post my take was he was having a day where he was quickly getting into and staying in heavy positive counts. The kind of thing you would like to see everyday but don't. But it was a bad day for results just like a casino has shitty days at roulette even though they have a massive edge.

Now for "accumulated EV." I'm always measuring expectation and comparing plays to see which one I should concentrate on or play off first. Then I "play off the expectation." That's the term I use. That's the same thing as saying "accumulating expectation." One thing I know for sure, if I don't "play off/accumulate" the expectation I don't have a chance at making any money.

In no way did I think KJ meant that he could cash in the accumulated EV on a later day. That thought never crossed my mind. That bullshit was concocted by Alan just so he could fuck with KJ. Then Argentino jumped in with the "due to hit" bullshit. This from an asshole that in the past has used the term "rising probability."

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Originally Posted by Bill Yung

What? Putting rocks in socks to hurt black persons in riots? I did miss out on that part of life.

Ha, one day I slept in, and was late for the pizza store rush-hour at lunchtime. About as close as I came to a riot.

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Did you miss the part about having to sleep under my bunk to keep from being clubbed in the head by a sock full of rocks. Those assholes got what they deserved.

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Originally Posted by blackhole

Quick hypothetical question for you AP pros.

Let’s say you guys put me on a play that mathematically is worth $100.00 per hour. I play exactly as required for max advantage. Yet, for the first day of play, I play for 10 hours and end up losing $100.00 dollars per hour for a total loss of 1K. I go back the following day and unfortunately the same results happen. These same results sadly repeat for the whole week. I’m now down 7K.

The following week I only lose 4K under the same conditions. I’m now down 11K. The following week I lose another 6K. I’m now down after 3 weeks and 210 hours of play a total of 17K. All my free play went down the drain the same way, and I ate all the free comped food and still had to pay out of my pocket for most of it. Amazingly everyone around me are hitting all kinds of good shit, royals, etc.

How long should I expect to grind it out on the same play to recover the 17K I lost in cash along with the 21K I should have won, plus the additional $100.00 dollars per hour I should be winning to recover these losses to become mathematically sound again? Do I now have 38K plus expenses in the accumulated EV bank?

Then for an added hypothetical situation I eventually after months of endless 10-hour days on this play eventually end up losing my whole 100K bankroll. Should I get a loan knowing eventually I have to recover my banked accumulated EV along with all the profits the math said I must have?

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1. What's the bet size?
2. What's the starting bankroll size?
4. What's the variance?
5. What's the risk of ruin percentage?