Covid-19 by the numbers

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Originally Posted by jpfromla

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Originally Posted by mcap

You can take politics out of it just by comparing the situations of states that have similar political makeup and both have large cities. Look at how well California is doing vs New York and how early they took action vs New York. The blood is on Cuomo’s hands but the national media largely based out of New York is blaming it mostly on Trump.

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What helped California out was the early China flight ban in late January. Most of those flights would land in LA or SF. Kept the virus away, unlike NY which got all those European infected flights, that weren’t halted till mid-March.

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Being the first state to issue a stay at home order while New York waited until everyone else was also shutting down non essential had nothing to do with it? Gtfoh. If you’re a Democrat in New York it’s impossible for anything bad that happens to be your fault at all.

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Originally Posted by LMR

Apparently, Trump was provided with several different options to deal with the outbreak. He chose the one that had the virus going away on its own, with warmer weather.

"Trump told supporters at a rally in New Hampshire in early March that the virus will be gone by April, claiming that when temperatures rise, “the virus” will “miraculously” go away. Chinese President Xi Jinping has said the same, Trump said."

The do-nothing, and hope-for-the-best, scenario.

I wonder how it feels to have so much "blood" on your hands because you wanted to keep the stock markets up for yourself, and your rich friends.

Ha, well, I guess it really is the way that "the world has always been". No, Crimm, I doubt that Trump cares that you live, or die, regardless from the virus.

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I know one thing. I dont' give a rats ass whether your punk ass lives or dies. Fuck off, bitch.

LMR is a mental midget.

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

Does it come through the walls?

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Kj, last I heard it doesn’t come through walls. But just to play it safe I’d stay in your bunker. Hopefully, you got it reinforced with lead. I heard it has a hard time getting through lead.

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Originally Posted by mcap

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Originally Posted by jpfromla

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Originally Posted by mcap

You can take politics out of it just by comparing the situations of states that have similar political makeup and both have large cities. Look at how well California is doing vs New York and how early they took action vs New York. The blood is on Cuomo’s hands but the national media largely based out of New York is blaming it mostly on Trump.

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What helped California out was the early China flight ban in late January. Most of those flights would land in LA or SF. Kept the virus away, unlike NY which got all those European infected flights, that weren’t halted till mid-March.

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Being the first state to issue a stay at home order while New York waited until everyone else was also shutting down non essential had nothing to do with it? Gtfoh. If you’re a Democrat in New York it’s impossible for anything bad that happens to be your fault at all.

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The statewide "stay at home" order was issued by the California governor on March 19th. New York, Connecticut, and Oregon governors issued their statewide "stay at home" orders on March 20th.

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Originally Posted by Bob21

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

Does it come through the walls?

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Kj, last I heard it doesn’t come through walls. But just to play it safe I’d stay in your bunker. Hopefully, you got it reinforced with lead. I heard it has a hard time getting through lead.

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Now, now, Bob21!

KJ's walls have special, 666-properties. Hehehe.

"Can the new coronavirus spread through building pipes?

Two residents of a Hong Kong apartment building have fallen ill with the new coronavirus even though they live on different floors."

https://www.livescience.com/coronavi...ing-pipes.html

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

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Originally Posted by Rob.Singer

I'm going to get subs at Subway today. Can I get anyone something?

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Of course you are! Yesterday was food stamp day and because of increased benefits due to the coronavirus relief bill, you are "rolling in" extra food stamp money. ;)

So yeah, I take a couple chocolate chips cookies. Can you purchase them with food stamps or is it only prepared sandwiches? :cool:

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I smile at that. If there were ANY feasible way I could manipulate the system into allowing us to get a food stamp card I'd have done it long ago. However, just with our SS alone, we're over limit, let alone the pensions.

The best part about all this is we will in fact be getting a full $2400 in stimulus, since our combined AGI income for 2018 was justbelow $150k. The funny part?--there's no exclusion for having millions in retirement accounts and gold. I get what the slob downtown gets.

Karma is such a good thing :)

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

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Originally Posted by redietz

Also, this is not completely about survival. A good chunk of people who get this are going to have permanent lung damage, like having tuberculosis. So quality of life will be reduced for those who survive. That hasn't even been discussed much publicly because then, with 30% minimum having the virus, you're talking about tens of millions with reduced quality of life. Those are the facts. That's the reality. if you prefer to believe something else, be my guest.

I have, at each step of this, been correct about virtually everything. And that did not take any super powers. It took a little reading and listening to actual experts and understanding that science and the military have been running models for this....

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Tens of millions with lung damage? That would mean more than tens of millions would have to get the virus. I think your number here is not only wrong its outrageous.

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Mickey, just do the math. California is going to have more than 50% infected. California has 40 million people. New York will be 70-80%. New York has 20 million people. Just do the math. I do not know why you can't do the math. You're better at math than I am, so what is the problem? The models have been accurate.

At each step of this, mickey, you have said one thing. I have said another. You have yet to be correct. I guess you're due, as they say.

As far as the president is concerned, he had the power and the ability to report reality to the American people at least six weeks ahead of what he did. That would have been honest. It would have saved lives. Republicans, when polled, actually registered a higher percentage of taking the virus seriously before the president made his February statements. He made those statements, and the percentage of Republicans taking it seriously went down. At any point, he could have said, "Fox News ain't telling it like it's gonna be. Here's what's going to happen."

Cuomo blundered badly early. The CDC was a disgrace the entire way. The Georgia governor is a horse's ass. But President Trump had the ability and the platform to clean up many of these blunders by just admitting the truth.

I had a blunder myself about a month ago. My girlfriend had watched shows with Japanese and Korean infectious disease specialists, and they recommended masks. I had figured masks couldn't hurt, but the CDC said masks were of no benefit. I believed the CDC. Well, of course, the CDC was bullshitting and just trying to prevent civilians from buying masks because the U.S. government hadn't stockpiled a serious amount. So the girlfriend was right; I was wrong.

She's sewn some mask prototypes the last few days, and we should be good to go.

Here's some info from the major health care companies in Tennessee: they are not expecting peak bed usage until mid-June. So that puts Tennessee a full six to eight weeks behind New York, despite the fact that Tennessee has quite a few confirmed cases.

Mickey, I'm going to guess that Montana should be a month or so behind Tennessee. That doesn't mean go out and party. It means the virus is already there, but social distancing could be real effective in Montana if people do their job right now.

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

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Originally Posted by mcap

You can take politics out of it just by comparing the situations of states that have similar political makeup and both have large cities. Look at how well California is doing vs New York and how early they took action vs New York. The blood is on Cuomo’s hands but the national media largely based out of New York is blaming it mostly on Trump.

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I'm not sure this is entirely fair. NYC is what I would describe as an international city. More visitor and residents from all over the world than any other U.S. city. NYC is our version of a Paris, London or Tokyo. On top of that, the people literally live on top of each other. No comparison to LA, which has a lot of people but is much more spread out. Not making excuses, just saying circumstances aren't really the same.

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Every elevator in NYC is ground 0 for the virus.

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Originally Posted by redietz

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

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Originally Posted by redietz

Also, this is not completely about survival. A good chunk of people who get this are going to have permanent lung damage, like having tuberculosis. So quality of life will be reduced for those who survive. That hasn't even been discussed much publicly because then, with 30% minimum having the virus, you're talking about tens of millions with reduced quality of life. Those are the facts. That's the reality. if you prefer to believe something else, be my guest.

I have, at each step of this, been correct about virtually everything. And that did not take any super powers. It took a little reading and listening to actual experts and understanding that science and the military have been running models for this....

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Tens of millions with lung damage? That would mean more than tens of millions would have to get the virus. I think your number here is not only wrong its outrageous.

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Mickey, just do the math. California is going to have more than 50% infected. California has 40 million people. New York will be 70-80%. New York has 20 million people. Just do the math. I do not know why you can't do the math. You're better at math than I am, so what is the problem? The models have been accurate.

At each step of this, mickey, you have said one thing. I have said another. You have yet to be correct. I guess you're due, as they say.

As far as the president is concerned, he had the power and the ability to report reality to the American people at least six weeks ahead of what he did. That would have been honest. It would have saved lives. Republicans, when polled, actually registered a higher percentage of taking the virus seriously before the president made his February statements. He made those statements, and the percentage of Republicans taking it seriously went down. At any point, he could have said, "Fox News ain't telling it like it's gonna be. Here's what's going to happen."

Cuomo blundered badly early. The CDC was a disgrace the entire way. The Georgia governor is a horse's ass. But President Trump had the ability and the platform to clean up many of these blunders by just admitting the truth.

I had a blunder myself about a month ago. My girlfriend had watched shows with Japanese and Korean infectious disease specialists, and they recommended masks. I had figured masks couldn't hurt, but the CDC said masks were of no benefit. I believed the CDC. Well, of course, the CDC was bullshitting and just trying to prevent civilians from buying masks because the U.S. government hadn't stockpiled a serious amount. So the girlfriend was right; I was wrong.

She's sewn some mask prototypes the last few days, and we should be good to go.

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I don't see anyone publishing numbers as high as yours. And I don't get where you think the virus will continue to spred thru the summer. Another thing you are doing is accusing the President of not being a doctor and knowing what doctors know. Well, he isn't and doesn't but I really didn't expect him to be. And why the shutdown and social distancing if everyone is going to get infected anyway?

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Originally Posted by mcap

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Originally Posted by jpfromla

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Originally Posted by mcap

You can take politics out of it just by comparing the situations of states that have similar political makeup and both have large cities. Look at how well California is doing vs New York and how early they took action vs New York. The blood is on Cuomo’s hands but the national media largely based out of New York is blaming it mostly on Trump.

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What helped California out was the early China flight ban in late January. Most of those flights would land in LA or SF. Kept the virus away, unlike NY which got all those European infected flights, that weren’t halted till mid-March.

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Being the first state to issue a stay at home order while New York waited until everyone else was also shutting down non essential had nothing to do with it? Gtfoh. If you’re a Democrat in New York it’s impossible for anything bad that happens to be your fault at all.

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Agree. California was ahead of closing down ( based on number of cases) way before NY, despite Pelosi parading around in SF during Chinese New Years. And I’m not a Gavin Newsom fan.

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Originally Posted by Deech

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Originally Posted by mcap

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Originally Posted by jpfromla

What helped California out was the early China flight ban in late January. Most of those flights would land in LA or SF. Kept the virus away, unlike NY which got all those European infected flights, that weren’t halted till mid-March.

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Being the first state to issue a stay at home order while New York waited until everyone else was also shutting down non essential had nothing to do with it? Gtfoh. If you’re a Democrat in New York it’s impossible for anything bad that happens to be your fault at all.

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The statewide "stay at home" order was issued by the California governor on March 19th. New York, Connecticut, and Oregon governors issued their statewide "stay at home" orders on March 20th.

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Maybe it wasn’t statewide yet, SF Bay Area like 6-7 counties went shelter in place March 16th have a text from my brother who lives there about it. They had already been limiting gathering sizes previously starting sometime around March 12th. The sort of things NY’s mayor was asking for but Cuomo shot him down.

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Originally Posted by mcap

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Originally Posted by Deech

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Originally Posted by mcap

Being the first state to issue a stay at home order while New York waited until everyone else was also shutting down non essential had nothing to do with it? Gtfoh. If you’re a Democrat in New York it’s impossible for anything bad that happens to be your fault at all.

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The statewide "stay at home" order was issued by the California governor on March 19th. New York, Connecticut, and Oregon governors issued their statewide "stay at home" orders on March 20th.

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Maybe it wasn’t statewide yet, SF Bay Area like 6-7 counties went shelter in place March 16th have a text from my brother who lives there about it. They had already been limiting gathering sizes previously starting sometime around March 12th. The sort of things NY’s mayor was asking for but Cuomo shot him down.

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I don’t know the laws in NY state, but de Blasio should have taken the bull by the balls and locked down NYC himself...oops, sorry, I just answered my own thought...

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Originally Posted by jpfromla

Every elevator in NYC is ground 0 for the virus.

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Especially if it is on the bottom floor.

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

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Originally Posted by redietz

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

Tens of millions with lung damage? That would mean more than tens of millions would have to get the virus. I think your number here is not only wrong its outrageous.

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Mickey, just do the math. California is going to have more than 50% infected. California has 40 million people. New York will be 70-80%. New York has 20 million people. Just do the math. I do not know why you can't do the math. You're better at math than I am, so what is the problem? The models have been accurate.

At each step of this, mickey, you have said one thing. I have said another. You have yet to be correct. I guess you're due, as they say.

As far as the president is concerned, he had the power and the ability to report reality to the American people at least six weeks ahead of what he did. That would have been honest. It would have saved lives. Republicans, when polled, actually registered a higher percentage of taking the virus seriously before the president made his February statements. He made those statements, and the percentage of Republicans taking it seriously went down. At any point, he could have said, "Fox News ain't telling it like it's gonna be. Here's what's going to happen."

Cuomo blundered badly early. The CDC was a disgrace the entire way. The Georgia governor is a horse's ass. But President Trump had the ability and the platform to clean up many of these blunders by just admitting the truth.

I had a blunder myself about a month ago. My girlfriend had watched shows with Japanese and Korean infectious disease specialists, and they recommended masks. I had figured masks couldn't hurt, but the CDC said masks were of no benefit. I believed the CDC. Well, of course, the CDC was bullshitting and just trying to prevent civilians from buying masks because the U.S. government hadn't stockpiled a serious amount. So the girlfriend was right; I was wrong.

She's sewn some mask prototypes the last few days, and we should be good to go.

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I don't see anyone publishing numbers as high as yours. And I don't get where you think the virus will continue to spred thru the summer. Another thing you are doing is accusing the President of not being a doctor and knowing what doctors know. Well, he isn't and doesn't but I really didn't expect him to be. And why the shutdown and social distancing if everyone is going to get infected anyway?

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My California number is low. The current estimate is more like 55%. Tennessee's major health corporations predict max bed use in mid-June. The virus will spread through the summer.

The president can read, presumably. Presumably, he also has access to better information than I do. Had he acted on what Fauci had to say two months ago, it would have made a considerable difference. When you have an NIH head who has worked under many presidents and faced off multiple potential pandemics, might be good to ask him right off the bat, wouldn't you say? The president had a choice -- go with the Fox News line or consult lifelong professionals. He made a bad choice. He made the easy choice. He's in deep now, but he seems to finally understand who knows what they're talking about, and I think he has the guts to go with it.

And actually, the U.S. total number projected infected I've been suggesting here is likely way low, too. This has been, as I've said for months, soft peddled each step of the way. Even that first mention of 100K deaths, as I mentioned when it was made, was probably a low estimate. And presto, 48 hours later it went to 200K.

lol... funny to read this and see the difference in posts/thoughts in just a few weeks.
Personally, I am basically a professional at stay at home or shelter in place so it doesn't bother me at all.
I don't like the idea that it is mandated and government controlled though... that is the scary part.
Nobody seems to be enforcing anything yet here in Vegas.
I drive where I want when I want with no issues as of yesterday.

Best thing to do is to Stock Up.
Get an arsenal and hunker down.
I don't agree with Rob Singer and others who promote Take Away.
It is a known fact that they put pubes, spit and other things in your food just because.
People are scared of the mail and cardboard boxes but have no problem with to go food lol lol lol.
The same thing can happen at the grocery stores so either way you take your chances.
I'd rather prepare home cooked meals though.

KewlJ is screwed.
You think Jesus is going to let KewlJ call him a faggot?
Jesus will make that virus go through the walls, floorboards, plumbing and vents to infect him now.
Your going on a Ching Chang Chong Ride!
Buckle Up Buttercup!!

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Originally Posted by redietz

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

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Originally Posted by redietz

Mickey, just do the math. California is going to have more than 50% infected. California has 40 million people. New York will be 70-80%. New York has 20 million people. Just do the math. I do not know why you can't do the math. You're better at math than I am, so what is the problem? The models have been accurate.

At each step of this, mickey, you have said one thing. I have said another. You have yet to be correct. I guess you're due, as they say.

As far as the president is concerned, he had the power and the ability to report reality to the American people at least six weeks ahead of what he did. That would have been honest. It would have saved lives. Republicans, when polled, actually registered a higher percentage of taking the virus seriously before the president made his February statements. He made those statements, and the percentage of Republicans taking it seriously went down. At any point, he could have said, "Fox News ain't telling it like it's gonna be. Here's what's going to happen."

Cuomo blundered badly early. The CDC was a disgrace the entire way. The Georgia governor is a horse's ass. But President Trump had the ability and the platform to clean up many of these blunders by just admitting the truth.

I had a blunder myself about a month ago. My girlfriend had watched shows with Japanese and Korean infectious disease specialists, and they recommended masks. I had figured masks couldn't hurt, but the CDC said masks were of no benefit. I believed the CDC. Well, of course, the CDC was bullshitting and just trying to prevent civilians from buying masks because the U.S. government hadn't stockpiled a serious amount. So the girlfriend was right; I was wrong.

She's sewn some mask prototypes the last few days, and we should be good to go.

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I don't see anyone publishing numbers as high as yours. And I don't get where you think the virus will continue to spred thru the summer. Another thing you are doing is accusing the President of not being a doctor and knowing what doctors know. Well, he isn't and doesn't but I really didn't expect him to be. And why the shutdown and social distancing if everyone is going to get infected anyway?

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My California number is low. The current estimate is more like 55%. Tennessee's major health corporations predict max bed use in mid-June. The virus will spread through the summer.

The president can read, presumably. Presumably, he also has access to better information than I do. Had he acted on what Fauci had to say two months ago, it would have made a considerable difference. When you have an NIH head who has worked under many presidents and faced off multiple potential pandemics, might be good to ask him right off the bat, wouldn't you say? The president had a choice -- go with the Fox News line or consult lifelong professionals. He made a bad choice. He made the easy choice. He's in deep now, but he seems to finally understand who knows what they're talking about, and I think he has the guts to go with it.

And actually, the U.S. total number projected infected I've been suggesting here is likely way low, too. This has been, as I've said for months, soft peddled each step of the way. Even that first mention of 100K deaths, as I mentioned when it was made, was probably a low estimate. And presto, 48 hours later it went to 200K.

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I don't see doctors or any of the alarmists in media using numbers as extreme as yours are. 70 to 80% of New Yorkers? You are saying that quarantining at home and social distancing have no chance to succeed. That everyone is going to get the virus anyway. You are saying that 200,000 New Yorkers will die. Thats just to exteme, redietz.

California is doing surprisingly well (so far), with only 242 deaths. Keep in mind the population is 40 million.

I think the much-maligned lack of public transportation has helped the state not end up like some of the bad ones elsewhere.

"Nobody walks in LA" might be a saving grace.

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

California is doing surprisingly well (so far), with only 242 deaths. Keep in mind the population is 40 million.

I think the much-maligned lack of public transportation has helped the state not end up like some of the bad ones elsewhere.

"Nobody walks in LA" might be a saving grace.

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Check out 2:51... the video predicts the future with Surgical Masked Man dancing in the crowd lol.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=80WyBxo0Hto

.................................................. ..........







THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT HAS DECLARED ILLEGAL (OR UNDOCUMENTED, WHICHEVER YOU PREFER) FARMWORKERS ESSENTIAL TO OUR COUNTRY




https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/u...riculture.html

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Originally Posted by monet

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

California is doing surprisingly well (so far), with only 242 deaths. Keep in mind the population is 40 million.

I think the much-maligned lack of public transportation has helped the state not end up like some of the bad ones elsewhere.

"Nobody walks in LA" might be a saving grace.

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Check out 2:51... the video predicts the future with Surgical Masked Man dancing in the crowd lol.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=80WyBxo0Hto

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Lead singer, Dale Bozzio, had been living in the nearby town of Bellingham, MA the last couple of years. She is originally from Boston (actually Medford).

These stats suggest a mortality rate of 1% or less.

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

These stats suggest a mortality rate of 1% or less.

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How do you figure that Mickey? :confused:

Among resolved cases, 20% have died. :( And sadly that number continues to tick upward.

You can not use total cases. You must use resolved cases, because the deaths occur several weeks, even as long as a month after infection. I mean people that got infected today, or yesterday or 2 days ago are included in the total cases, but whether or not they die can not possible be determined for another few weeks.

Here's another way of looking at it: Suppose some how, with a magic swipe of the wand, there were no more cases after today. So the number of cases "froze" right there. Deaths would still occur for several more weeks from the current cases. It takes several weeks to a month for deaths to catch up.

here is yet a third way. Since it takes several weeks for deaths to catch up you could compare the death total of today against the case total of several weeks ago. That would be an approximation, but much closer to the actual death rate.

The only way the death rate is at 1% or less, is if millions and millions of people have had the virus and resolved on their own without being counted. And this is possible. It is what we are all hoping for. But we need testing to know for sure. Not the testing to see who has the virus, but the antibody test to see who has had it and resolved. And they don't have to test every person, just a significant sample size to know that yeah, for every confirmed case, there have been 10 cases that were not confirmed that people recovered on their own. Boy wouldn't that be a great thing! But we need testing to know for sure.

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

These stats suggest a mortality rate of 1% or less.

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How do you figure that Mickey? :confused:

Among resolved cases, 20% have died. :( And sadly that number continues to tick upward.

You can not use total cases. You must use resolved cases, because the deaths occur several weeks, even as long as a month after infection. I mean people that got infected today, or yesterday or 2 days ago are included in the total cases, but whether or not they die can not possible be determined for another few weeks.

Here's another way of looking at it: Suppose some how, with a magic swipe of the wand, there were no more cases after today. So the number of cases "froze" right there. Deaths would still occur for several more weeks from the current cases. It takes several weeks to a month for deaths to catch up.

here is yet a third way. Since it takes several weeks for deaths to catch up you could compare the death total of today against the case total of several weeks ago. That would be an approximation, but much closer to the actual death rate.

The only way the death rate is at 1% or less, is if millions and millions of people have had the virus and resolved on their own without being counted. And this is possible. It is what we are all hoping for. But we need testing to know for sure. Not the testing to see who has the virus, but the antibody test to see who has had it and resolved. And they don't have to test every person, just a significant sample size to know that yeah, for every confirmed case, there have been 10 cases that were not confirmed that people recovered on their own. Boy wouldn't that be a great thing! But we need testing to know for sure.

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95% of cases are mild conditions according to the graph. So 5% are serious or critical. The deaths come out of the 5%. So what do you figure the death rate within that 5% is?

If you have a Fever and Cough or Sore Throat... STAY HOME!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QgHATo0d3YA

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

95% of cases are mild conditions according to the graph. So 5% are serious or critical. The deaths come out of the 5%. So what do you figure the death rate within that 5% is?

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Mickey, I think you are interpreting the numbers incorrectly. The problem continues to be that it takes weeks for the cases to resolve.

So each and every day there is a new high in number of new cases. So that means that number you are looking at 95% mild cases contains all of the new cases from the past couple days, even the past week. Of course those newer cases are now "mild". People don't get sick for up to several weeks. So if we looked at just these cases that are listed today, as active cases, 797,398 and checked back next week, on just those cases, the criticals and deaths would both go up from that pool of cases. And the week after that the deaths and criticals would have gone up even more.

The problem is by next week or the week after there will be a whole new slew of active cases, again with the majority, listed as mild, because there hasn't yet been sufficient time for them to progress to critical and/or death. It is sort of a ponzi scheme. Again, the problem is that it takes so long, weeks even a month for the cases to resolve. Only then can you determine what percent are critical and what percent die.

I like this video better. Maybe a money making opportunity for someone.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=E5Zn2Fv6n6Q

here would be yet another way to figure the real death rate. Go back and look at the first 1000 cases who tested positive in the U.S. It has probably been a couple weeks now. So when every one of those cases has fully resolved, meaning every one of them has either recovered or died, do you really think only 10 (1%) will have died? No. The number is going to be much higher.

Most places in US, and likely other countries, those confirmed cases are almost all ones with more severe symptoms. If you have symptoms but aren’t having breathing troubles you’re advised to just self quarantine, manage symptoms at home. Obviously this creates a biased death rate statistic, all we’re really looking at are moderate to severe cases or rich connected people. But Kewlj won’t listen to any of that and insists that no one can use any inferential statistical reasoning based on that, can only use biased confirmed case count and resolved cases. Why? Idk, maybe Kewlj just being ass hoe.

You can pretty easily just assume the 5% currently critical cases are going to die, a few won’t but a few non critical will turn that or die anyway and that there’s at least 4x as many non confirmed cases that have shown symptoms but are advised to not be tested based on what we’re being told on how many severe vs non severe cases there are, leads you to a pretty easy rough 1% fatality assumption.

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Originally Posted by mcap

Most places in US, and likely other countries, those confirmed cases are almost all ones with more severe symptoms. If you have symptoms but aren’t having breathing troubles you’re advised to just self quarantine, manage symptoms at home. Obviously this creates a biased death rate statistic. But Kewlj won’t listen to any of that and insists that no one can use any inferential statistical reasoning based on that, can only use confirmed cases. Why? Idk, maybe Kewlj just being ass hoe.

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Why the need to call names, mcap? why is it that on this site there can be no reasonable discussion without name calling?

Again, I hope like hell that there is a large pool of people that have already contracted the virus, had mild symptoms and recovered. And that would make the death rate 1% or even less. But there is yet no proof of that. That means it is purely an assumption at this point. Assume....you know how that works?

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

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Originally Posted by mcap

Most places in US, and likely other countries, those confirmed cases are almost all ones with more severe symptoms. If you have symptoms but aren’t having breathing troubles you’re advised to just self quarantine, manage symptoms at home. Obviously this creates a biased death rate statistic. But Kewlj won’t listen to any of that and insists that no one can use any inferential statistical reasoning based on that, can only use confirmed cases. Why? Idk, maybe Kewlj just being ass hoe.

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Why the need to call names, mcap? why is it that on this site there can be no reasonable discussion without name calling?

. Assume....you know how that works?

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Why the names? Cuz it’s Dan’s forum, management style fosters and encourages it. Gotta go somewhere else or make our own forum if we want it to be civil:

Yeah I guess assumption make ass hoe out of both you and me. You’re calculating style make assumption too that there are zero undiagnosed cases.

Anyone who says that Hitlers Recipe is MendleBread has no right to ask others why they are name calling.
If your gonna shove it in peoples asses you have to be able to take it up the ass.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

Quote:

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

95% of cases are mild conditions according to the graph. So 5% are serious or critical. The deaths come out of the 5%. So what do you figure the death rate within that 5% is?

---

Mickey, I think you are interpreting the numbers incorrectly. The problem continues to be that it takes weeks for the cases to resolve.

So each and every day there is a new high in number of new cases. So that means that number you are looking at 95% mild cases contains all of the new cases from the past couple days, even the past week. Of course those newer cases are now "mild". People don't get sick for up to several weeks. So if we looked at just these cases that are listed today, as active cases, 797,398 and checked back next week, on just those cases, the criticals and deaths would both go up from that pool of cases. And the week after that the deaths and criticals would have gone up even more.

The problem is by next week or the week after there will be a whole new slew of active cases, again with the majority, listed as mild, because there hasn't yet been sufficient time for them to progress to critical and/or death. It is sort of a ponzi scheme. Again, the problem is that it takes so long, weeks even a month for the cases to resolve. Only then can you determine what percent are critical and what percent die.

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The same site these stats came off of, worldometers, says with rare exceptions it runs its course in 14 days.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by redietz

Quote:

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

Quote:

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Originally Posted by redietz

Also, this is not completely about survival. A good chunk of people who get this are going to have permanent lung damage, like having tuberculosis. So quality of life will be reduced for those who survive. That hasn't even been discussed much publicly because then, with 30% minimum having the virus, you're talking about tens of millions with reduced quality of life. Those are the facts. That's the reality. if you prefer to believe something else, be my guest.

I have, at each step of this, been correct about virtually everything. And that did not take any super powers. It took a little reading and listening to actual experts and understanding that science and the military have been running models for this....

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Tens of millions with lung damage? That would mean more than tens of millions would have to get the virus. I think your number here is not only wrong its outrageous.

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Mickey, just do the math. California is going to have more than 50% infected. California has 40 million people. New York will be 70-80%. New York has 20 million people. Just do the math. I do not know why you can't do the math. You're better at math than I am, so what is the problem? The models have been accurate.

At each step of this, mickey, you have said one thing. I have said another. You have yet to be correct. I guess you're due, as they say.

As far as the president is concerned, he had the power and the ability to report reality to the American people at least six weeks ahead of what he did. That would have been honest. It would have saved lives. Republicans, when polled, actually registered a higher percentage of taking the virus seriously before the president made his February statements. He made those statements, and the percentage of Republicans taking it seriously went down. At any point, he could have said, "Fox News ain't telling it like it's gonna be. Here's what's going to happen."

Cuomo blundered badly early. The CDC was a disgrace the entire way. The Georgia governor is a horse's ass. But President Trump had the ability and the platform to clean up many of these blunders by just admitting the truth.

I had a blunder myself about a month ago. My girlfriend had watched shows with Japanese and Korean infectious disease specialists, and they recommended masks. I had figured masks couldn't hurt, but the CDC said masks were of no benefit. I believed the CDC. Well, of course, the CDC was bullshitting and just trying to prevent civilians from buying masks because the U.S. government hadn't stockpiled a serious amount. So the girlfriend was right; I was wrong.

She's sewn some mask prototypes the last few days, and we should be good to go.

---

I just seen a film bite from January where Fauci is saying coronavirus was not a threat to the U.S. If Trump was getting his advice from Fauci then it was faulty advice. And what is Fauci saying today? He's saying the country should stay in quarantine until there are no more infections and no more deaths.

Fauci is just a doctor and thats all he has to think about. Trump has to think about a lot more than the virus. He has to also think about the economy and constitutional rights.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

here would be yet another way to figure the real death rate. Go back and look at the first 1000 cases who tested positive in the U.S. It has probably been a couple weeks now. So when every one of those cases has fully resolved, meaning every one of them has either recovered or died, do you really think only 10 (1%) will have died? No. The number is going to be much higher.

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Real death rate? Glad you Asked!
https://www.foxnews.com/health/half-...toms-data-show

Read along to the results of the cruise liner where EVERYONE got tested! Then analysts in the U.K. came up with a .66% mortality rate.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

My brother and I filed for unemployment two days ago and our status were both changed to approved today only 48 hours later. Because we qualify under the recovery package expanded eligibility, I assumed we would have to jump through hoops and provide all kinds of paperwork proving our income. So far that isn't the case, maybe they will be requesting that at some point.

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I'm curious as to how you did this; I assumed you were self-employed? Per the website:

Pandemic Unemployment Assistance: Unemployment support for otherwise ineligible workers, including self-employed.

Status: awaiting federal guidance. Last updated 03/31/20

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Originally Posted by Guy Incognito

Quote:

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

My brother and I filed for unemployment two days ago and our status were both changed to approved today only 48 hours later. Because we qualify under the recovery package expanded eligibility, I assumed we would have to jump through hoops and provide all kinds of paperwork proving our income. So far that isn't the case, maybe they will be requesting that at some point.

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I'm curious as to how you did this; I assumed you were self-employed? Per the website:

Pandemic Unemployment Assistance: Unemployment support for otherwise ineligible workers, including self-employed.

Status: awaiting federal guidance. Last updated 03/31/20

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Don’t mean to answer for KJ, but one of the criteria is place(s) of employment closed due to covid19.

Liberal prayer:

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Guy Incognito

Quote:

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

My brother and I filed for unemployment two days ago and our status were both changed to approved today only 48 hours later. Because we qualify under the recovery package expanded eligibility, I assumed we would have to jump through hoops and provide all kinds of paperwork proving our income. So far that isn't the case, maybe they will be requesting that at some point.

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I'm curious as to how you did this; I assumed you were self-employed? Per the website:

Pandemic Unemployment Assistance: Unemployment support for otherwise ineligible workers, including self-employed.

Status: awaiting federal guidance. Last updated 03/31/20

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Hate to cross-thread direct, but I gave as detailed an account of my filing as I can now recall in post #88 of the "handout thread" that you may find beneficial.

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Originally Posted by House of Orange

Quote:

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

here would be yet another way to figure the real death rate. Go back and look at the first 1000 cases who tested positive in the U.S. It has probably been a couple weeks now. So when every one of those cases has fully resolved, meaning every one of them has either recovered or died, do you really think only 10 (1%) will have died? No. The number is going to be much higher.

---

Real death rate? Glad you Asked!
https://www.foxnews.com/health/half-...toms-data-show
Crickets
Read along to the results of the cruise liner where EVERYONE got tested! Then analysts in the U.K. came up with a .66% mortality rate.

---

Don't mean to get in the middle of this, but there are different strains of the virus.

Anyway, Fauci said at some point that, when all is said and done, he expects a 1.0 to 1.2% fatality rate, which would be 10 times the normal influenza rate of death. Now that rate is based on everybody in the country being tested -- as in EVERYBODY. The projections are that, by the end of the year, more than a third, and maybe closer to half of Americans will have had it. The old 3% to 4% mortality rate estimates were regarding those who had been tested because they showed serious symptoms.

So my take on it is that the 3% on up is fatality if you showed obvious symptoms, and the 1.0 to 1.2% is for everybody who gets it, symptoms or not. And there will be a boatload of people getting it.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by redietz

Don't mean to get in the middle of this, but there are different strains of the virus.

Anyway, Fauci said at some point that, when all is said and done, he expects a 1.0 to 1.2% fatality rate, which would be 10 times the normal influenza rate of death. Now that rate is based on everybody in the country being tested -- as in EVERYBODY. The projections are that, by the end of the year, more than a third, and maybe closer to half of Americans will have had it. The old 3% to 4% mortality rate estimates were regarding those who had been tested because they showed serious symptoms.

So my take on it is that the 3% on up is fatality if you showed obvious symptoms, and the 1.0 to 1.2% is for everybody who gets it, symptoms or not. And there will be a boatload of people getting it.

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Excellent post redietz! This is the same way I read the stats for this virus. It looks like it’s going to be about 10 times deadly than the flu, which is bad but it’s no Armageddon.

The way things are shaping up it doesn’t look like I’ll need to go to my back up plan, so Kj it doesn’t look like you’ll need to save me that spot in your bunker.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by redietz

Don't mean to get in the middle of this, but there are different strains of the virus.

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Hi Redietz, are there mortality rate breakdowns by strain available yet ?
thank.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Bob21

Quote:

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Originally Posted by redietz

Don't mean to get in the middle of this, but there are different strains of the virus.

Anyway, Fauci said at some point that, when all is said and done, he expects a 1.0 to 1.2% fatality rate, which would be 10 times the normal influenza rate of death. Now that rate is based on everybody in the country being tested -- as in EVERYBODY. The projections are that, by the end of the year, more than a third, and maybe closer to half of Americans will have had it. The old 3% to 4% mortality rate estimates were regarding those who had been tested because they showed serious symptoms.

So my take on it is that the 3% on up is fatality if you showed obvious symptoms, and the 1.0 to 1.2% is for everybody who gets it, symptoms or not. And there will be a boatload of people getting it.

---

Excellent post redietz! This is the same way I read the stats for this virus. It looks like it’s going to be about 10 times deadly than the flu, which is bad but it’s no Armageddon.

The way things are shaping up it doesn’t look like I’ll need to go to my back up plan, so Kj it doesn’t look like you’ll need to save me that spot in your bunker.

---

Well, the only problem with the projections is that if you have a 1% mortality and 100 million people get it, and those are the low end figures, well, you can do the math. Not Armageddon, but life is not going to be the same.

Plus it's likely to come back. Plus there are multiple strains, so (as AndrewG said, I think) COVID-20 might be just around the corner.

If there are multiple waves, and there will be given the slipshod nature of state-patching precautions, we better hope there aren't mutations. Because each go-round will be the Darwinian equivalent of casino churn.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by tableplay

Quote:

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Originally Posted by redietz

Don't mean to get in the middle of this, but there are different strains of the virus.

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Hi Redietz, are there mortality rate breakdowns by strain available yet ?
thank.

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Not that I'm aware. I don't even think the multiple-strain stuff has made the general media yet. A friend of my girlfriend was recruited to work on it; that's the only reason I know this. The U.S. seems to be almost all one strain. I think there's seven or eight. I think that means when there is a vaccine, and who knows how long that'll take, the U.S. should do well in terms of vaccine efficacy if it maintains it's more-or-less one strain status.

Coronavirus: Are there two strains and is one more deadly?

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This “selection pressure” could lead to the outbreak of a new strain, says Jones. This is the case with seasonal flu – new variants crop up every year that can infect people whether or not they’ve had flu in the past.

We could see the same pattern emerge for the new coronavirus in the coming years, says Jones. “I don’t see it going away any time soon.”

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Read more: https://www.newscientist.com/article...#ixzz6Ih46uQaO

Quote:

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Originally Posted by redietz

I don't even think the multiple-strain stuff has made the general media yet. A friend of my girlfriend was recruited to work on it; that's the only reason I know this. The U.S. seems to be almost all one strain. I think there's seven or eight. I think that means when there is a vaccine, and who knows how long that'll take, the U.S. should do well in terms of vaccine efficacy if it maintains it's more-or-less one strain status.

---

What are you talking about?
The 8 strains circling the globe has been reported for awhile now.
It is pretty common knowledge.
You can google it and all sorts of articles pop up.
This one was published on March 27, 2020.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...on/5080571002/

Published March 30,2020.

https://www.seattletimes.com/nation-...s-doctors-say/

Quote:

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Originally Posted by redietz

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Bob21

Quote:

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Originally Posted by redietz

Don't mean to get in the middle of this, but there are different strains of the virus.

Anyway, Fauci said at some point that, when all is said and done, he expects a 1.0 to 1.2% fatality rate, which would be 10 times the normal influenza rate of death. Now that rate is based on everybody in the country being tested -- as in EVERYBODY. The projections are that, by the end of the year, more than a third, and maybe closer to half of Americans will have had it. The old 3% to 4% mortality rate estimates were regarding those who had been tested because they showed serious symptoms.

So my take on it is that the 3% on up is fatality if you showed obvious symptoms, and the 1.0 to 1.2% is for everybody who gets it, symptoms or not. And there will be a boatload of people getting it.

---

Excellent post redietz! This is the same way I read the stats for this virus. It looks like it’s going to be about 10 times deadly than the flu, which is bad but it’s no Armageddon.

The way things are shaping up it doesn’t look like I’ll need to go to my back up plan, so Kj it doesn’t look like you’ll need to save me that spot in your bunker.

---

Well, the only problem with the projections is that if you have a 1% mortality and 100 million people get it, and those are the low end figures, well, you can do the math. Not Armageddon, but life is not going to be the same.

Plus it's likely to come back. Plus there are multiple strains, so (as AndrewG said, I think) COVID-20 might be just around the corner.

If there are multiple waves, and there will be given the slipshod nature of state-patching precautions, we better hope there aren't mutations. Because each go-round will be the Darwinian equivalent of casino churn.

---

Redietz, I’m still not seeing it as that bad. It mostly takes at the old and people who have compromised systems. And even with the old, most recover. I read where only 15% die that are over 85. Most recover. I mean at 85, a lot of things take out these people.

I get other middle age people also die from it, more frequently than with the flu. But it’s still not a lot, and most have some underlining medical condition.

I’ve read too where it’s the amount of virus you get that can cause problems, and death, so the key is to not take a sneeze from a sick person head on. Duck when you see it coming your way. This was from a New York Times article.

Here’s an interesting fact I doubt most people know. The famous Chinese doctor who died from it early on treating the first patients also gave it to both of his parents. They lived and never got seriously sick. He was 41 and died, while his parents are probably at least 20 years older than him and lived. Why did he die and they lived? Probably because he got super high doses of it treating his patients and his system couldn’t handle it, while his parents got smaller doses of it, so their systems could handle it.

The key is to catch this thing in small doses so your body can recover from it and you’ll develop immunity to it. That’s my plan. That way I don’t have to worry about sharing a bunker with KJ.

Watch the media downplay coronavirus:

https://r.search.yahoo.com/_ylt=AwrW...Pcg7jzz7XpDmc-

Here's a better link to it:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wVDPVBZF2Xg

Quote:

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Originally Posted by monet

Quote:

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Originally Posted by redietz

I don't even think the multiple-strain stuff has made the general media yet. A friend of my girlfriend was recruited to work on it; that's the only reason I know this. The U.S. seems to be almost all one strain. I think there's seven or eight. I think that means when there is a vaccine, and who knows how long that'll take, the U.S. should do well in terms of vaccine efficacy if it maintains it's more-or-less one strain status.

---

What are you talking about?
The 8 strains circling the globe has been reported for awhile now.
It is pretty common knowledge.
You can google it and all sorts of articles pop up.
This one was published on March 27, 2020.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...on/5080571002/

Published March 30,2020.

https://www.seattletimes.com/nation-...s-doctors-say/

---

I saw the map you're showing, monet, but I haven't read any scientific follow-ups for what it all means regarding vaccines, how the strains differ in effects, rates of mutation, or anything like that. I haven't seen any interviews, either town halls or with the task force, where anybody's addressed it. Why do you think that might be?

The Seattle Times article is March 30, and they don't seem to have any answers at the moment, either.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by redietz

Quote:

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Originally Posted by monet

Quote:

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Originally Posted by redietz

I don't even think the multiple-strain stuff has made the general media yet. A friend of my girlfriend was recruited to work on it; that's the only reason I know this. The U.S. seems to be almost all one strain. I think there's seven or eight. I think that means when there is a vaccine, and who knows how long that'll take, the U.S. should do well in terms of vaccine efficacy if it maintains it's more-or-less one strain status.

---

What are you talking about?
The 8 strains circling the globe has been reported for awhile now.
It is pretty common knowledge.
You can google it and all sorts of articles pop up.
This one was published on March 27, 2020.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...on/5080571002/

Published March 30,2020.

https://www.seattletimes.com/nation-...s-doctors-say/

---

I saw the map you're showing, monet, but I haven't read any scientific follow-ups for what it all means regarding vaccines, how the strains differ in effects, rates of mutation, or anything like that. I haven't seen any interviews, either town halls or with the task force, where anybody's addressed it. Why do you think that might be?

The Seattle Times article is March 30, and they don't seem to have any answers at the moment, either.

---

I’ve read they are all about the same. The reason this is so difficult to predict is because there’s too many variables to analyze. One of the biggest ones is the dose amount you get. There’s a good article in the New York Times on April 1. The title is “ These Conoravirus exposures might be the most dangerous”. The subheading says, “As with any other poison, viruses are usually deadlier in larger amounts.”

I would post it if I knew how on my phone but people should be able to look it up. It’s an interesting article.

I have followed the dosing material some. It ties together. The people who are in enclosed spaces with a lot of projectile type explosion into the air, like at church meetings or choir practices where everyone's singing or shouting, this is where the worst of it occurs. I also read that in those types of environments, some people can expel more than a hundred times what others expel, so it varies enormously person to person. A worst case scenario would be a choir practice with a powerful singer with the virus standing close to you.

Political rallies would be a killer. And, tying into the Trump call today, athletic events would be real killers, too.

How to easily make a face mask

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9YLXEhSjVsw

Quote:

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

How to easily make a face mask

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9YLXEhSjVsw

---

and proceeded to slather it with hand sanitizer.

https://www.walmart.com/ip/VEVOR-1-5...xoCIaYQAvD_BwE

...................................



I feel overwhelming sadness for our country, the world and the suffering
forklift loading corpses into into a tractor trailer outside a New York hospital


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pT7I_dYxMjI



https://www.businessinsider.com/coro...-morgue-2020-3

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Half Smoke

...................................
I feel overwhelming sadness for our country, the world and the suffering
forklift loading corpses into into a tractor trailer outside a New York hospital

---

I feel overwhelming sadness that most people have been asleep while most of the world has either gone hungry or lives in complete poverty for centuries.
I feel overwhelming sadness that Americans are crying over a few thousand deaths while other countries go through more than this on a daily basis.
I feel overwhelming sadness that the Media is causing panic and fear.
Nobody Stays On Top Forever... Fact!
Etc Etc Etc...

Quote:

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Originally Posted by monet

I feel overwhelming sadness that Americans are crying over a few thousand deaths while other countries go through more than this on a daily basis..

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yes, you have a point, but that is a natural and human thing to feel more for your own nation and culture than you do for other nations and cultures
the Swiss don't feel or express much about the tens of millions of Russians who died in WW2
just as a human will feel greater sadness when a member of his own family dies then when a member of someone else's family dies far away




and, unless the experts are wrong it's going to be a great many more than a few thousand who will die in the U.S.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by AxelWolf

Quote:

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

How to easily make a face mask

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9YLXEhSjVsw

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and proceeded to slather it with hand sanitizer.

https://www.walmart.com/ip/VEVOR-1-5...xoCIaYQAvD_BwE

---

I had to buy bandanas because there are no masks for sale in Great Falls.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by monet

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Half Smoke

...................................
I feel overwhelming sadness for our country, the world and the suffering
forklift loading corpses into into a tractor trailer outside a New York hospital

---

I feel overwhelming sadness that most people have been asleep while most of the world has either gone hungry or lives in complete poverty for centuries.
I feel overwhelming sadness that Americans are crying over a few thousand deaths while other countries go through more than this on a daily basis.
I feel overwhelming sadness that the Media is causing panic and fear.
Nobody Stays On Top Forever... Fact!
Etc Etc Etc...

---

In my opinion, an incredibly powerful and truthful post. You put it all into perspective. An honest Thank You Monet.

I wouldn't become too emotional. Your turns are next. And, I don't mean with the virus.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by LMR

I wouldn't become too emotional. Your turns are next. And, I don't mean with the virus.

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YOU FIRST!

Last is already first.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by LMR

Last is already first.

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Touche!!

Quote:

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Originally Posted by LMR

I wouldn't become too emotional. Your turns are next. And, I don't mean with the virus.

---

Yep, Biden and Pelosi will save us all. Go back to bed, or back to filling out handout claims. I know, this is a new era of liberal utopia.

.............................



this - according to Wikipedia as of today:

21% of cases worldwide have recovered
5% cases in the U.S. have recovered
9% in New York have recovered - I'm assuming they're referring to the entire state not just NYC which is much worse than the rest of the state

5.4% have died from it worldwide
2.7% in the U.S. have died from it
3.1% in New York have died from it

They estimated a 3.4% rate of death from the start.
Even if you say 5% overall that doesn't seem so bad to me for some reason.
I feel like you got a 95% chance or better of survival.
Eventually Herd Immunity will kick in according to the professionals.
Maybe it will turn into something like the Bubonic Plague which means it's a coin toss :)
Heads You Live.
Tails You Die.

The stats for Montana this morning are 281 cases, 6 deaths, 275 cases still active. So only the 6 death cases are inactive. We had 5 cases by March 14th. Today is April 5th. That's 22 days. How the hell long do they consider cases to be active? Worldometers says it runs its course in 14 days.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

The stats for Montana this morning are 281 cases, 6 deaths, 275 cases still active. So only the 6 death cases are inactive. We had 5 cases by March 14th. Today is April 5th. That's 22 days. How the hell long do they consider cases to be active? Worldometers says it runs its course in 14 days.

---

I also heard this morning that Montana has had the highest percentage of its population tested in the US.

Did you know that in the USA about 625,000 legally reported abortions take place every year?
That is about 18% of pregnancies (excluding miscarriages) or 1 in 6 babies!!
Another interesting statistic is that 1 out of every 4 women in America will have an abortion!!
Nobody losing sleep over those facts.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Half Smoke

...................................



I feel overwhelming sadness for our country, the world and the suffering
forklift loading corpses into into a tractor trailer outside a New York hospital

https://www.businessinsider.com/coro...-morgue-2020-3

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Half Smoke

.............................



this - according to Wikipedia as of today:

21% of cases worldwide have recovered
5% cases in the U.S. have recovered
9% in New York have recovered - I'm assuming they're referring to the entire state not just NYC which is much worse than the rest of the state

5.4% have died from it worldwide
2.7% in the U.S. have died from it
3.1% in New York have died from it

---

Coincidence???

Didn't realize you were lilredrooster.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by The Boz

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by LMR

I wouldn't become too emotional. Your turns are next. And, I don't mean with the virus.

---

Yep, Biden and Pelosi will save us all. Go back to bed, or back to filling out handout claims. I know, this is a new era of liberal utopia.

---

We need to do a reverse "prisoner swap". Send Trump over to the Dem's, for Biden and Pelosi over to Republicans, so that each side can "lock up" the other side's idiots.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Half Smoke

.............................



this - according to Wikipedia as of today:

21% of cases worldwide have recovered
5% cases in the U.S. have recovered
9% in New York have recovered - I'm assuming they're referring to the entire state not just NYC which is much worse than the rest of the state

5.4% have died from it worldwide
2.7% in the U.S. have died from it
3.1% in New York have died from it

---

Soopoo properly addressed this on WoV. Mortality rate still around 1% or lower. Deal with it mr. doom and gloom.

Speaking of Mr doom and gloom, jr, you know the cool guy, still no reply to factual mortality rates coming in from all over the world.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by House of Orange

Soopoo properly addressed this on WoV. Mortality rate still around 1% or lower. Deal with it mr. doom and gloom.

---

my %s were obviously based on info that we do have
it's not possible to compile statistics on info that we do not have

and Soopoo wrote nothing about the mortality rate being 1% or lower

he wrote this: "we are nowhere close to knowing the true denominator"


so, the % I quoted were not the true % of those who have it who will die
granted - but until we know the actual statistics that is all we have




and there is the flip side to this that you missed:



Soopoo's comments indicate that there are likely a great many more than the 311,658 in the U.S. who have it








as displayed in the Wikipedia image that I posted

Quote:

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Originally Posted by The Boz

Quote:

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

The stats for Montana this morning are 281 cases, 6 deaths, 275 cases still active. So only the 6 death cases are inactive. We had 5 cases by March 14th. Today is April 5th. That's 22 days. How the hell long do they consider cases to be active? Worldometers says it runs its course in 14 days.

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I also heard this morning that Montana has had the highest percentage of its population tested in the US.

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6600 tested out of 909,000. That's about 3 quarters of 1 percent

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Originally Posted by Half Smoke

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Originally Posted by House of Orange

Soopoo properly addressed this on WoV. Mortality rate still around 1% or lower. Deal with it mr. doom and gloom.

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my %s were obviously based on info that we do have
it's not possible to compile statistics on info that we do not have

and Soopoo said nothing about the mortality rate being 1% or lower

he said this: "we are nowhere close to knowing the true denominator"


so, the % I quoted were not the true % of those who have it who will die
granted - but until we know the actual statistics that is all we have




and there is the flip side to this that you missed:



Soopoo's comments indicate that there are likely a great many more than the 311,658 in the U.S. in the Wikipedia image that I displayed who have it

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I think part of this obsession with mortality rates is probably an indicator of people trying to assume "control via knowledge" when there is neither control nor a helluva lot of knowledge.

The truth is, for the 1918 pandemic and other major events, total mortality and mortality rates aren't usually assigned with some reasonable certainty until years after the events have ended and the smoke has cleared. There's too much to process. It's true that some people are dying with coronavirus but not because of coronavirus, technically. It's also true that a lot of people are dying or have died without being tested or diagnosed, but they did have the virus, so they don't initially get included in the coronavirus stats. A couple of years from now, the epidemiologists will be able to assign pretty good numbers.

And yeah, to the last comment above, many, many more have it, obviously. The projection for California, when the year is out, is about 55% of the population. Germany will be 50-70%. That's a lot of people. New York is more than 70% projected. Even a state like Tennessee, where I live, is looking at 30% or more. And that's optimistic.

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

6600 tested out of 909,000. That's about 3 quarters of 1 percent

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what is the margin of error on this sample size?
can somebody show me how to do the math?

thanks

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Originally Posted by Half Smoke

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

6600 tested out of 909,000. That's about 3 quarters of 1 percent

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what is the margin of error on this sample size?
can somebody show me how to do the math?

thanks

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I googled "population of montana" to get that number. I got the number tested off of "worldometers.info/coronavirus/" From the home page you click on USA then click on whichever state you want, then click on the [1] on the far right. It will show you how many have been tested. The numbers are continually going up so I think they are updating quickly. Yesterday the number tested in Montana was about 5500.

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

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Originally Posted by The Boz

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

The stats for Montana this morning are 281 cases, 6 deaths, 275 cases still active. So only the 6 death cases are inactive. We had 5 cases by March 14th. Today is April 5th. That's 22 days. How the hell long do they consider cases to be active? Worldometers says it runs its course in 14 days.

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I also heard this morning that Montana has had the highest percentage of its population tested in the US.

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6600 tested out of 909,000. That's about 3 quarters of 1 percent

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It was on NBC Meet the Press this morning. Since it was Chuck Todd he probably pulled the number out his ass.