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Yeah that Dallas over was one of the two which won. The other was the Utah under. The other 3 lost. 2-3 day. Blah. Though honestly the Toronto one was a good pick and got screwed by an inexplicable scoring barrage in trash time.
Just one today, at least so far from what I can see:
Phoenix vs. San Antonio - Under 227
Won yesterday.
Last minute:
Portland at Charlotte - Under 216.5 (Lillard out, Hayward out, Graham out)
Total through 4/10: 99-95-3 (+5.13 units)
4/11: 0-2 (-2.00 units)
4/12: 1-1 (-0.09 unuts)
4/13: 3-0 (+2.73 units)
4/14: 4-1 (+2.62 units)
4/15: 1-0 (+0.91 units)
4/16: 2-3 (-1.18 units)
4/17: 1-0 (+0.91 units)
4/18: 1-0 (+0.91 units)
Total 4/11-4/18: 13-7 (+4.83 units)
GRAND TOTAL: 112-102-3 (+9.96 units)
I'm 38-17 since March 21
Boston -6.5 vs. Chicago (LaVine out, Walker/Smart questionable)
Utah -7 vs. Lakers (Davis/Schoeder/Gasol/Conley/Gobert probable, Mitchell out)
Oklahoma City at Washington - Over 232 (Hachimura/Dort out, Len questionable)
1-2 yesterday, only winning the Utah pick.
Light NBA schedule today.
I have one for now:
Atlanta vs. Orlando - Under 217.5 (Ennis out, Carter-Williams out, Gallinari out, Hunter out)
Won yesterday.
Today:
Dallas vs. Detroit - Under 217 (Smith doubtful, Hardaway probable)
Miami -1.5 at San Antonio (Olapido out, Iguodala out)
Brooklyn at Toronto - Over 230.5 (Durant out, Harden out)
Atlanta at New York - Over 219 (Gallinari out, Hunter out)
2-2 with none being close. Easily won Miami -1.5 and the Atlanta over. Lost the other two by a wide margin.
I've cooled down a bit, now 4-4 in last 8 picks.
Charlotte at Chicago - Over 210
Detroit at San Antonio - Over 217.5
0-2 yesterday
Here's a moneyline pick -- something I had mostly abandoned (other than very even-moneyish types ones) as the season progressed, because they're a lot harder to hit once everything is more established.
Anyway, this one is pretty aggressive, so I don't blame you if you do the spread (+10) instead.
Houston +402 vs. Clippers (Leonard/Ibaka/Beverly out, House probable)
I think Houston is pulling off an upset tonight. Or at least I think it enough to go +400 on it.
Here's one totals pick, too:
Brooklyn vs. Boston - Under 227.5 (Harden out, Durant/Brown questionable, Walker/Fournier doubtful)
Almost scored that huge Houston win, as they were up by 7 in in the mid-4th, and they had a shot to tie in the final seconds. But it lost. Won the under.
---------------------
Today.....
Some NBA unders:
Philadelphia vs. Milwaukee - Under 227.5 (227 ok) (Embiid questionable, Simmons out)
Denver vs. Houston - Under 221 (Wall/Murray/Barton out, Wood doubtful)
Here's a moneyline, less of a longshot than yesterday:
Chicago +155 at Miami (Oladipo/LaVine/Dragic out, Williams probable)
If you want to do +4 instead, that's cool too
I don't bet a lot of pro basketball, but decided to Today and got screwed before the game even began. :mad:
76ers playing the 2nd of back to back against the bucks, having lost the first game Thursday. Ben Simmons has been out for 12 games and was supposed to play today. 76ers top bench player Harris, who also didn't play Thursday was also supposed to be back. Joel Embiid has been averaging 30 points last 5-6 games. Full 76ers roster, for fist time in a while.
I made 3 bets halftime +4, game +7.5 and moneyline 76ers +260.
Simmons was ruled out after I made my bets and Embiid ruled out 5 minutes (literally) before tip off. I already lost the halftime bet $550 and will lose the moneyline $500 and game straight bet $1100 for an ugly day and reminder why I don't bet pro basketball. How are you supposed to win, not knowing who is even playing.
Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
Embiid, to me, would be the most unstoppable player in the league if his hoops IQ went up a few points. He always, literally always, does three or four really dumbass things each game -- usually back-to-basket stuff where he doesn't see a double team coming and he occupies the ball too long. Anyway, I don't really watch much NBA, but I did see the game where Embiid hyperextended something a couple of games ago. Every once in awhile, he's been limping after coming down. Doesn't last long -- three or four minutes, but he does not appear 100% to me.
Anyway, with Harris and Simmons out, I guess they decided to sit Embiid, too. No sense killing him in a game where he was likely going to be the focus on offense and they weren't likely to win. If I were coaching, I would sit him.
You can't trust pre-game reports -- I don't bet much NBA, but I do regularly check the FanDuel fantasy status stuff, and you cannot trust what you're told regarding likelihood of playing. You have to draw your own conclusions separate from the status reports. As the season winds down, this is likely to get more common.
If the 76ers had an actual point guard, they would be really dangerous. But they don't. Simmons is a nice player, but he's not really a point guard. And the shot charts for Harris, Embiid, and Simmons overlap too much. The 76ers picked up the old dude (whose name evades me) as a fill-in at point, and I like him, but he's not a 35-minute a game point guard.
1-2 yesterday, only winning Philly under.
Today:
Starting soon:
Memphis vs. Portland - Over 235.5
More coming shortly.
Here's two aggressive moneyline bets. If you prefer the spread of +7-7.5 for both, I understand:
Cleveland +240 at Washington
Sacramento +260 at Golden State
Grizzlies game had 43 points in the 1st which was a disaster for such a high over total. Then the teams started scoring a lot, and the Blazers made an epic comeback from 12 down late, and it looked like fouling might take me over the edge.
233 points, 8 seconds left, Portland down 7. Lillard fires a 3 which would seal it for me...
Brick.
Game over. Not a bad beat because this was losing the whole way, but still.
McCollum also lost the ball at one point in the final 10 seconds or so which fucked me, because the game was closer and there would have been more fouling to end it.
Really bad weekend for my underdogs. I went 0-4, with three of them having 6-7 point leads in the mid-4th. All of them lost. All of them had a chance to win in the final seconds, too.
My one totals pick today also sucked, as the 1st quarter was terrible, and yet I almost still pulled it off... but not quite.
0-3 day.
That puts me at 2-8 in my last 10. I think I've had enough of these late season dogs. Too many "close but no cigar" moments. I'll go back to what I've been doing well, being totals and spreads. I'll leave the dog moneylines for the early season.
Last minute:
Atlanta at Detroit- Under 215.5
Cleveland at Toronto - Under 212.5
Starting at 4:35pm PT
Won both yesterday. Sorry I didn't give you guys much notice on those.
Today:
Charlotte vs. Milwaukee - Over 225.5
Lost yesterday thanks to very low scoring in final 7 minutes.
Today:
San Antonio at Miami - Over 213
Chicago at New York - Over 209.5
Clippers at Phoenix - Under 220
One more:
Sacramento vs. Utah - Under 221.5
2-2 yesterday. Utah scored 154 points! Ouch! Chicago over just barely missed after looking good with 7 min to play.
Today:
Toronto at Denver - Under 218 (VanVallet/Trent/Boucher/Murray/Barton out, Porter probable)
Lost yesterday.
Today:
I hate these ploppy big favorite spreads, but I'll make an exception today.
Memphis -12.5 vs. Orlando (Cannady/Okeke/Carter-Williams/Jackson out, Allen doubtful)
Sacramento at Lakers - Over 224.5
Washington at Cleveland - Over 230.5
1-2 yesterday
Starting soon:
Memphis vs Orlando - Under 218
Lost on Friday, should have won though... bad luck at the end.
We move on.
Today:
New York at Memphis - Over 221
Utah vs. San Antonio - Under 220.5
2-0 yesterday.
One today:
Oklahoma City vs. Sacramento - Under 227 (Fox out, Barnes out)
Won easily.
Was in a 7-15 slump from 4/22-5/1, but won my last 3. Not quite as bad as it looks, because I did barely miss some big underdogs (one over +400) hitting.
Still in the black, but not by that much.
Through 4/18: 112-102-3 (+9.96 units)
All wins below were spread/total, counted as -110
4/19: 1-2
4/20: 1-0
4/21: 2-2
4/22: 0-2
4/23: 1-1
4/24: 1-2
4/25: 0-3
4/26: 2-0
4/27: 0-1
4/28: 2-2
4/29: 0-1
4/30: 1-2
5/01: 0-1
5/03: 2-0
5/04: 1-0
Total 4/19-5/4: 14-19 (-6.27 units)
Grand total: 126-121-3 (+3.69 units)
Here's a ploppy pick:
Milwaukee -4 vs. Washington (Hachimura out)
That's all I got for now.
Milwaukee was up by 8 going into the 4th, and was up by 5 in the final minute, and then Beal hit two 3s, and squeaked by with only a 1-point victory. They were up 4 in the final 5 seconds. Ugh.
One pick today. Yesterday was brutal -- 2 picks, 2 screw jobs. But as a great man here says, "We move on."
Brooklyn at Dallas - Over 235
Lost yesterday.
Today:
Minnesota at Miami - Over 227.5 (Butler playing)
Won on Friday. Probably no picks today.
Chicago +170
Dallas -3.5
Also Dallas over 227.5
Looklng like 1-2 at best in those 3 picks.
I'll throw one more on:
Lakers vs. New York - Under 210
2-2 yesterday, won both totals, lost both spreads
Today:
You want to get a nice dog line against a Lakers team missing a ton of players, including Lebron and AD? Then read on.
Houston +360 at Lakers
Houston/Lakers - Under 221.5
Out: Wall, Lebron, Davis, Schroder
Questionable: Wood, House
Probable: Gasol, Caldwell-Pope, Kuzma
Lakers are a shit team without Lebron, AD, and Schoder.
Houston is obviously a shit team at this point, too, but +360 is nice value here given who is playing.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
This will be fascinating. I'm not sure what the Lakers are doing. Caruso is also listed as questionable. That means no point guard, back-up is hurt, and no LeBron. So who brings the ball up court, and how can they possibly run?
Why would the Lakers not go with all hands on deck for this one? If they lose, they will almost assuredly be stuck in the play-in round games. I mean, if your guys can play, best to play them here and not save them for a single game (probably versus Golden State) where anything can happen. If LA wins, they have a real shot at avoiding the play-in games. Lose, and they are probably stuck.
This should be a real godawful mess.
Also wanted to add -- I don't have NBA ATS records in my head, so not sure, but it's pretty rare to find teams -20 ATS for a season, which is where Houston will be if they do not cover tonight. Depending on line move pushes, both Cleveland and Houston are in the -20 ATS boat. For as much as people talk about Detroit taking a dive this season, they're close to .500 ATS.
Embiid is playing. He was ill, and they weren't sure if he was going to play. He is, and the Sixers are still a dog somehow.
Philadelphia +115 (+2 ok) at Miami
Lost that one badly. Honestly not proud of that pick. Regretted it pretty soon after I made it, and not just because of the score.
Today:
Here's an injury-laden NBA game where I have a lean.
Pelicans are missing Ingram, Williamson, Adams, and Ball. Warriors are missing Green, Curry, Wiggins, Oubre, and of course Thompson.
I think the Pelicans have the edge here, according to my calculations/analysis.
Also, while the Mavericks are missing Kleiber, the Raptors are without Siakam, Lowry, Anunoby, and VanVleet. Take the under.
Toronto at Dallas - Under 219.5
New Orleans +100 at Golden State (up to -1 ok)
Also
Clippers at Houston - Under 225 (George, Kawhi, Jackson, Beverly, Wood, House all out)
0-3 yesterday, lost two close ones. Really run bad with these close ones.
Milwaukee vs. Miami - Over 234.5
Houston and Cleveland wrapped up the season in fine fashion, getting blown out, which is consistent with their efforts the last three months. Unless miracle rallies occur, Houston will end up 27-45 ATS or thereabouts, and Cleveland will finish 25-45 ATS.
You have to remember that the algorithms are adjusted in an ongoing fashion throughout the season, so to continue to lose against the spread, you have to perform worse and worse. It's a real tribute to Houston and Cleveland that they were able to devolve as the season progressed. It's very rare to post ATS records like these.
Coming up at 4:40 PT...
Milwaukee -5 vs. Miami
Milwaukee/Miami - Over 223.5
Oladipo is still out
Won both on Monday.
I've got an NBA playoff pick tongiht.
Philadelphia vs Washington - Under 229
Won that Philly under 2 weeks ago, but haven't bet on NBA since. As I mentioned, I don't like betting playoffs much because the lines tend to be solid.
Michael Conley is out. Serge Ibaka also out.
I think the Clippers win this one OUTRIGHT.
Clippers +130 at Utah (+3 ok)
Lost via Clippers 4th quarter choke
Last minute:
Brooklyn vs. Milwaukee - Over 234