Talking about baseball

Playoff races right now.

American: Division winners: Toronto, Houston Detroit
Wildcard # 1: Yankees
Wildcard # 2: Redsox
Wildcard # 3: Seattle & Texas tied (1/2 game back of Red sox)

teams within 4 games of final WC spot: Tampa Bay (3 back), Cleveland (3.5 back), KC (4 back)

National League

Division winners: Mets, Cubs, Dodgers.

Wildcard # 1: Brewers
Wildcard # 2: Phillies
Wildcard # 3: Padres

Within 4 games of final WC: Cincinnati (1 game back surprisingly), Giants (3 games back) Cardinals (3.5 games back)

I made the cut off at 4 games back of wildcard because there is still 2 full months of regular season left, and this year more than any I remember, we have seen many teams get hot and cold and win and lose 8-10 games or 10 of 12.

At 4 games back, you have to not only win, but leapfrog in some cases 3-4 team. That is hard to do. So in my opinion anyone more than 4 games back is a seller come trading deadline (thursday). Thursdays are often light days in MLB. A travel day. But this week, extremely so with only 3 games. I think MLB knows the action thursday will take place off the feild. :cool:

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Originally Posted by MDawg

UNKewl one (sulking, voice rising to a falsetto whine): I'm the victim here! I'm always the victim! People are always out to get me! I knew you wouldn't understand.

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I felt time for a win for Detroit in Detroit, Detroit -130. Then I tried justifying it, and I couldn't based on Detroit's pitcher that was rocked for 6 runs in Pittsburgh last series. I just dont want Arizona ever. I hate them and usually prefer their demise.


Took the Rockies +190 in Cleveland. Hopefully the Browns don't show up in Cleveland and beat them 17-3.


Im taking the Reds in Cincinnati +145. Taking the Reds seems good enough. That game seems good for an over and Ohtani HR parlay.

Lastly the Brewers -105 hosting the Cubs. The Miz stopped their winning streak and a time for winning ways to come back would be a blessing. If the Cubs are going to win the division, they cannot lose these 4 battles.

Sucksdickontuesdays thinks he can pick winners between dick sucks

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

Sucksdickontuesdays thinks he can pick winners between dick sucks

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Hobo homo little dick whatever you say, but at least talk some baseball.

Can't say it enough, worried about my Astros bets. They are 4 games ahead in their division now. They were ahead by 12 over the Rangers and now it's 4. So of course I have lost faith because things didnt happen how I expected with the A's by far quite the opposite. The Astros winning the division odds have come down from -5000 and -3500 to -220 now. The talk is the Astoes will be aggressive for talent, my bank account will depend on it at this point. There are still many games left and returning players from IL will make a difference. The hard part is waiting and hoping.

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Originally Posted by theywontpayontuesday

Can't say it enough, worried about my Astros bets. They are 4 games ahead in their division now. They were ahead by 12 over the Rangers and now it's 4. So of course I have lost faith because things didn't happen how I expected with the A's by far quite the opposite. The Astros winning the division odds have come down from -5000 and -3500 to -220 now. The talk is the Astros will be aggressive for talent, my bank account will depend on it at this point. There are still many games left and returning players from IL will make a difference. The hard part is waiting and hoping.

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The Rangers just look really good right now. Playing really good baseball. I have been betting Texas and overs including just their team totals for several days. They are currently tied with Seattle for the last wild card. I expect they will overtake Seattle and Boston for the second wildcard and possibly the Yankees for the first wild card. And as for the division, that wouldn't surprise me either.

Today was a lot better seeing them score after being down 3-0. 2 walks and possibly an intentional error by the Miz, it was so bad. Now I'm really regretting risking some free money on the 4 game day. Im back down to $100@$200 bets, but with strategy.

Now this is bipolar. Yay Brewers kicking the Cubs butts after being embarrassed in the top of the first. Poor Rhine Sandberg died, I remember his face.

I felt kind of shitty seeing the Rockies odds slip to +235 pre-game. I saw +600 w 2 men on first and second 1 out but I missed it and got a weak +280 with men on 2nd and 3rd 2 outs, survived betting against the Guardian converting and am glad seeing the Rockies up 3-0 now. I bet the Mets late -180 when 1-0 and kind of felt, it was a good bet, but impulsive with risk I have survived so far. Hopefully I haven't cursed this 🤧, jinx 😬.

Yup just checked in, 3-0 became 3-3, I see bases loaded with 0 outs. Forget + anything with this set up.

I was very happy with my day. Won nicely with added bets the Rockies would come from behind and win along with SF +1.5 +275 leading into the 9th down by 2. The Brewers kicked ass, not much to worry about. What Im worried about is not betting enough +2000 World Series before the odds adjust closer to reality. By my calculations and logic, each $100 bet on the Brewers is worth $300 right now based on Fangraphs stated odds of the Brewers winning the World Series is 14.9%. The Brewers at +2000 is assuming the Brewers have a 4.9% chance of winning the World Series. It's a great amazing bet to bet $100 now knowing the $100 is worth $300 the second you bet it. Omg EV $200.

Today I am betting Orioles(Charlie Morton) -135 versus Toronto.

rockies +195 @Cleveland
Milwaukee -120 versus Chicago

I took some bold bets on the Orioles game. Under 5.5 first 5 and (under 10.5 Orioles -1.5 & Charlie Morton 6 Ks, Orioles first to score) parlay. Doesn't look good, Morton no Ks first 7 outs.

Was worth a laugh thinking I'd make it 2 innings no score.

The Brewers and Tigers made my day. I bet the Andrew Vaughn grand slam just in time and I didnt even know it until I heard the cheers of the game. Betting on one game is one thing, but betting on them all like Im doing thinking to World Series is another.

I just accidentally hedged betting Texas ML while previously taking -1.5 Angels. I was wondering why the odds were flickering against me.

I was disappointed in the Rockies today, but I could have bet against them and I felt greedy against the Guardians. Im starting to get locked up not having a clue about now.
Im back with the Brewers
-125 and -1.5 +170. Seeing the over under 7.5 caused me fear about this game. I took the Pirates late when down 0-1 +300. I like the Pirates again, a factor of their better games lately and the Giants being terrible, just so disfunctional. These two games when I think about the weaknesses or strengths, I get nervous.

The game looks to be a good over if Logan Webb can allow so many hits. Im thinking Pittsburgh, over 7.5, Mccutcheon HR or hits or RBIs, but Im thinking more about the power. Might as well first to score as well and maybe first inning.

I took Pittsburgh and the over 7.5 parlayed , +393 on 1.5 small units. I might stay away from this game for my other profit boosts parlays but I may not. I dont like betting too much on one single game and I'm good for now with the Brewers and the Pirates already. We'll see.

Big night for overs. 9 games went over, 4 stayed under, 3 were pushes.

Im feeling like taking risk today after all. Im betting Arizona over Detroit and with leads of 2 and 3. I just dont like Detroit's acquisition from Minnesota and am betting he will bring the Minnesota losing ways with him.

Naturally shitty baseball by Perdomo of the DBs, he gets caught between bases with Suarez up at bat. This could have potentially cost the Diamondbacks a run if Suarez was able to knock a ball out. Literally serves me right for betting blindly on Tennis out of greed.

Im not sure the Angels are actually giving up on 2025. Today sucked for me, I lost most of my bets. I didnt feel confident last night, but I never do feel confident.

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

Playoff races right now.

American: Division winners: Toronto, Houston Detroit
Wildcard # 1: Yankees
Wildcard # 2: Redsox
Wildcard # 3: Seattle & Texas tied (1/2 game back of Red sox)

teams within 4 games of final WC spot: Tampa Bay (3 back), Cleveland (3.5 back), KC (4 back)

National League

Division winners: Mets, Cubs, Dodgers.

Wildcard # 1: Brewers
Wildcard # 2: Phillies
Wildcard # 3: Padres

Within 4 games of final WC: Cincinnati (1 game back surprisingly), Giants (3 games back) Cardinals (3.5 games back)

I made the cut off at 4 games back of wildcard because there is still 2 full months of regular season left, and this year more than any I remember, we have seen many teams get hot and cold and win and lose 8-10 games or 10 of 12.

At 4 games back, you have to not only win, but leapfrog in some cases 3-4 team. That is hard to do. So in my opinion anyone more than 4 games back is a seller come trading deadline (thursday). Thursdays are often light days in MLB. A travel day. But this week, extremely so with only 3 games. I think MLB knows the action thursday will take place off the feild. :cool:

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Cleveland has lost their closer and cannot trade him because he is under sportsbetting investigation. The first night without him, the Guardians blew their lead over the Rockies to lose in the 9th, but the last 2 games cleveland has won handily. I wanted to say Cleveland has figured it out missing their closer, but they wouldn't have needed their closer the last 2 nights.

sucksbaseballplayercockontuesdays.

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

sucksbaseballplayercockontuesdays.

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Loser

Sucksbaseballplayercockontuesdays also sucks cock on thursdays

Tampa Bay @ New York Yankees Today.

My two wagers: Tampa Bay +100 (ML) and over 8.5 total runs.

Game is currently in a rain delay in the bottom of the 5th inning with Yankees winning 7-4. If the game is called as looks likely with the weather forecast, I will lose my Tampa Bay bet and my over 8.5 bet will be declared a no bet (refunded) despite 11 runs already scored. Boy that seems like an unfair outcome. :(

and it will be the second game involving the Yankees that I had an over bet, the score was over and the wager declared a no bet and refunded.

Astros trading well near the deadline

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

Tampa Bay @ New York Yankees Today.

My two wagers: Tampa Bay +100 (ML) and over 8.5 total runs.

Game is currently in a rain delay in the bottom of the 5th inning with Yankees winning 7-4. If the game is called as looks likely with the weather forecast, I will lose my Tampa Bay bet and my over 8.5 bet will be declared a no bet (refunded) despite 11 runs already scored. Boy that seems like an unfair outcome. :(

and it will be the second game involving the Yankees that I had an over bet, the score was over and the wager declared a no bet and refunded.

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I was burned as well on a parlay in the game with all players to get over 0.5 hits. Some only had 1 at bat. There should be greater consistency with rainouts from mlb.

The Brewers team is definitely not being respected. They are still +1500, this should be corrected with the Brewers's record. Hopefully the other teams dont get what they were expecting. My only fear right now is how long Jackson Chourio will be not playing and his health/speed when he returns. I obviously feel the Brewrers should be +800. So many teams have to regression, the Dodgers, the Tigers, the Yankees, the Mariners, the Cubs. Not all will, but some should be disappointing. Hopefully the Brewers finish #1 and end of season +750.

The Reds had 7 or more hits in a row and lost. I wonder what kind of odds this broke. Elly Delacruz hadnt hit a home run since June 18th but did today. I would like to know what the parlays would have been for all 7 to get hits and home runs. I wanted to bet on delacruz before his home run but it would have been too late with betting windows closed.

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Originally Posted by theywontpayontuesday

I looked up the Angels last 40 game record, 23-17, which means their first 39 games 16-23. I cannot tell the run differential of the first 39 and last 40. Most likely positive with a winning recordNeedless to say the Angels have to play .600 baseball from here on out to win their division and not get traded away.

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I hate seeing this every time I come to the thread talking baseball. I was optimistic at the time, pretty much knew how the Angels would play up until now and the Angels did not meet my expectations. They had had 53 games won today and I thought clearly they would need 55 if not 56 wins today. The Angels improved their team with bullpen help and didnt sell anyone key to the Angels winning. I dont think the Angels fixed the weak portions of their batting lineups and the Angels have not done well enough on defense is my opinion.

I had actually hoped the Angels would just lose already and get eliminated and the Angels are not trying to be eliminated. The Angels ineffectiveness will cost them I assume. I just wish they would go away. How funny would it be if I had to be beaten by the Angels and have this whole year a waste. It's still nice to think so, but I agree with everyone, the Angels were weak buyers like the Brewers were, unable to get power in their lineup(a home run, a walk, a strike out or a fly ball to the wall).

The Brewers have to stay good and winning often or my stomach will be turning. They have been hot for so long, why stop, but they could for no explainable reason. They'll be missing Chourio a lot and they may lose more games with him gone. Because they are such a cohesive team, a team greater than its parts, they cannot lose people.

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

Tampa Bay @ New York Yankees Today.

My two wagers: Tampa Bay +100 (ML) and over 8.5 total runs.

Game is currently in a rain delay in the bottom of the 5th inning with Yankees winning 7-4. If the game is called as looks likely with the weather forecast, I will lose my Tampa Bay bet and my over 8.5 bet will be declared a no bet (refunded) despite 11 runs already scored. Boy that seems like an unfair outcome. :(

and it will be the second game involving the Yankees that I had an over bet, the score was over and the wager declared a no bet and refunded.

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They ended up finishing the game and my over bet was paid. I didn't watch the second half of the game after the 3 hour rain delay, as I was already out doing other stuff. But I find it interesting that at the rain delay 5th inning, the score was 7-4 and the final score after 9 innings was 7-4. there were no runs scored in the final 4.5 innings after the delay. All 11 were scored before the rain. perhaps something kind of dramatically changed. A major change in wind direction and intensity, or perhaps it was drizzling or raining lightly during parts of that final 4+ innings. :confused: Perhaps nothing but it seems like something was different. Either way, my wager won and I got paid when I was afraid I wasn't going to. :)

Interesting second game of the day (there were only 3) between Atlanta and the Reds. I again had the over, which was 9.5. game was 3-3 after 7 innings and needing 4 runs in final 2 innings, very much in doubt. So the Braves scored 8 runs in the top of the 8th. That put the game over and I stopped watching. A while later I checked my account to be sure winnings had been properly credited and they had not yet been credited. So I flipped the game back on and it was 11-11 in the 10th inning. Apparently the Reds answered Atlanta's 8 run 8th with and 8 run eighth of there own.
That is kind of funny. 3-3 after 7 innings. 11-11 after 8 innings. ;)

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Originally Posted by theywontpayontuesday

The Brewers have to stay good and winning often or my stomach will be turning. They have been hot for so long, why stop, but they could for no explainable reason. They'll be missing Chourio a lot and they may lose more games with him gone. Because they are such a cohesive team, a team greater than its parts, they cannot lose people.

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I didnt know the Brewers got two left handed pitchers. Looked up the one, he is 3-3 with an era just under 2, 1.98. (Hahahhahaha, he is injured and so is rhe other guy but will be available this season). That's a master, didnt look up the others but there is hope. Also Suarez did nothing at all with Seattle tonight. Maybe he could still plausible be injured from the ball. With Judge being hurt, Ohtani pitching(lessHRs), maybe Suarez and Raleigh will slump together. If so, Mariners dont do as well often enough, maybe my Schwarber HR champ bet looks ok. I bet just over $200, which pays +1600, so almost $4,000 end of year if that one hits. It's +600 now and too cheap for me to bet more. Cal Raleigh pays me $600, was too cheap then too.

Boy there was ALOT of trades today at the deadline. I don't remember past years being THIS active. Maybe they were, but I don't remember it like this. Usually teams add 1 or 2 pieces they think they are missing. This year almost all the condensing teams added multiple players.

Phillies addressed their two needs. A closer and an outfielder. neither is the player I would have preferred, but both an upgrade at a weak position, especially the closer.

When all is said and done, most teams addressed their needs. I guess the two surprises for me were that the Dodgers did very little, (unless I missed something). I guess they think they have all the pieces and just need to get healthy. I mean they DID win the WS last year. :rolleyes:

Surprise #2 was the Miami Marlins. Most people thought they would be big sellers, like the Twins were (Twins traded 10 players). there were some Marlin players that would have addressed other teams needs. But the only deal they made was swapping outfielders. Not really selling. Oddly they must think they are still in the race with the team they have, despite that they are 7 games back of final wild card and would need to jump like 4 teams. Strange indeed.

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

Boy there was ALOT of trades today at the deadline. I don't remember past years being THIS active. Maybe they were, but I don't remember it like this. Usually teams add 1 or 2 pieces they think they are missing. This year almost all the condensing teams added multiple players.

Phillies addressed their two needs. A closer and an outfielder. neither is the player I would have preferred, but both an upgrade at a weak position, especially the closer.

When all is said and done, most teams addressed their needs. I guess the two surprises for me were that the Dodgers did very little, (unless I missed something). I guess they think they have all the pieces and just need to get healthy. I mean they DID win the WS last year. :rolleyes:

Surprise #2 was the Miami Marlins. Most people thought they would be big sellers, like the Twins were (Twins traded 10 players). there were some Marlin players that would have addressed other teams needs. But the only deal they made was swapping outfielders. Not really selling. Oddly they must think they are still in the race with the team they have, despite that they are 7 games back of final wild card and would need to jump like 4 teams. Strange indeed.

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Price was too high, so no deal was made and they were unwilling to bargain for less and had to keep pitchers. I'm also certain the Dodgers didn't do anything. I was really hopeful some Marlins pitchers would go to Milwaukee or Houston. The kid from Pittsburgh made a 2 run error minimum and cost Cincinatti the win ultimately the very first game. Trades don't always work out. Cal Raleigh did get HR 42 today to strengthen his lead.

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Originally Posted by MDawg

The Gossage—Vardebedian Papers


Two people pretending to place sports bets, both cheating.

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Originally Posted by MDawg

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Originally Posted by MDawg

The Gossage—Vardebedian Papers


Two people pretending to place sports bets, both cheating.

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You are such a fucking (lol) loser(lol) . You
are deflecting and accusing in a confessionary way. What would be wrong with you getting interested in mlb and have something positive to contribute. I would stop thinking of you as a complete fraud to humanized you Dickinson bot.

Best record and essentially lowest odds to win the World Series, the Milwaukee Brewers. The month of August and September will not be anything other than nail biting worried about a slump. Looking ahead, they're playing the Pirates, would have been nice to play them when everyone was beating them X-2,1,0. The Pirates traded away some talent, so hopefully there could be a sweep. The Brewers and Astros both need to defy the odds and take #1 seeds, all teams unsure they will get these things.

I also believed the Yankee game was never continued because the score didnt change so I had initially believed the game was cut short.

Overview


+11
Here's an overview of which teams gained and lost the most WAR (Wins Above Replacement) in the 2025 MLB trade season:
Teams gaining the most WAR (Winners)
San Diego Padres: The Padres made a significant impact, acquiring players like Mason Miller and JP Sears, and dramatically bolstering their bullpen with the likes of Mason Miller, Robert Suarez, Adrian Morejon, Jason Adam, and Jeremiah Estrada. They also added depth to their offense with Ramón Laureano and Ryan O'Hearn, and improved their catching with Freddy Fermin.
New York Yankees: The Yankees focused on improving several areas of their roster, notably their bullpen and bench. They acquired relievers David Bednar, Jake Bird, and Camilo Doval, along with third baseman Ryan McMahon and outfielder Austin Slater.
Seattle Mariners: Seeking their first World Series title, the Mariners were aggressive, landing hitters Eugenio Suarez and Josh Naylor without sacrificing their top prospects.
Teams losing the most WAR (Losers)
Minnesota Twins: The Twins had a difficult deadline, trading away key players like Carlos Correa (returning to Houston), Jhoan Duran, Chris Paddack, Randy Dobnak, and Willi Castro. This led to a significant decrease in their team's WAR and left many fans questioning the direction of the club.
San Francisco Giants: After a strong start to the season, the Giants experienced a major slide in July and became aggressive sellers at the deadline. While they acquired prospects, including Wilfri De La Cruz, Boston Bateman, and Cobb Hightower, for players like Tyler Rogers and Mike Yastrzemski, their immediate WAR suffered.
Baltimore Orioles: Although the Orioles' front office received some praise for their efficient handling of expiring contracts and rebuilding efforts, Yahoo Sports notes that "it's hard to get excited about anything related to the 2025 Baltimore Orioles, a typhoon of disappointment". They traded away players like Andrew Kittredge and Ramón Urías, prioritizing future returns over immediate success.
Important note: While these teams stand out in terms of WAR gained or lost, it's crucial to remember that WAR isn't the only metric for success. Some teams focused on acquiring prospects for future seasons rather than making an immediate push for the playoffs, according to FanGraphs. The overall impact of the trades will be better understood as the season progresses and in the long term.
MLB trade deadline grades for all 30 teams: 5 A’s, 15 B’s, 7 C’s and ...
Aug 1, 2025 — Key takeaways: The Padres put themselves in a strong position to not only catch the Dodgers in the NL West — they're only three games back — but also to again b...

The New York Times

The common saying about the Brewers is they will regression after their winning streak of 11 games. This would be true and usually is, if a team outperforms their record. The exception is an 11 game winning streak is actually to be expected for a team .650-.700. An expected winning streak for a .600 team would be around 8 games. They were 25-28 May 29th, then went on to win 35-15 which includes the 11 game winning streak. So are they a .600 team or are they closer to a .650-.700 team, we cannot know, only guess. We can never know, people just know recent history and the number of games good teams win. The problem is very good teams can lose 6-7 games in a row. Watching them hit, run, steal bases, and score, it just doesnt look like a bad team or average team. If they can keep it up, money will follow. The thing holding back other money on them is they are on the 2nd page for world series bets at kiosks, and you have to press 2 buttons to find them. Once another team is looking like they're not that good, the Brewers will be 1st page and attract more money.

The cashout values are what Im hoping for, but they will not be very pronounced until after a round in the playoffs. My +4000 $50 bet on the Brewers to have the best record in baseball, the cash out is $174 with the Brewers being +600 to get it. Im not sure if the same

The Brewers are winning against the Nationals 16-4 after 7 2/3 innings. I think the Brewers could be closer to .650 by the end of season. All that to lose in the first round they play, perhaps. It has been so rare for them to lose 3 of any 5 games. Being 35-15 since May 29th, you can see why and why you have to go back to April and May to see mediocrity.

Craziest night in baseball I have EVER seen BY FAR!

Scores of 17-16, 16-9, 13-12. These are football scores a month early!

Yankees blew a 5 run lead to lose 13-12 to Miami in bottom of the ninth. All 3 new Yankee relievers picked up yesterday sucked contributing, two giving up homeruns, the 3rd blowing the save in the 9th.

As crazy as the Yankee game was, the Colorado Rockies with the worst record in baseball by far, topped that. The Rockies rallied from down 9 to walk off a 17-16 win in the ninth. I had two bets on that game, one on the over 10 (as I almost always have overs these days) and a second much smaller bet on the Rockies. When the Pirates scored 9 in the first inning to take a 9-0 lead, I figured I was in good shape with the over bet, but had lost the Rockies bet. Not to be. :) I kept checking back in on the game as Colorado kept creeping closer. It was the most insanely exciting game I have ever watched. Kudos to the Colorado fans, who all stuck it out until the end and were rewarded. And they had a good crowd too.

The Phillies game paled in excitement but was very exciting to me as a Phillies fan. Phils erased a late 3-0 deficit and won 4-3. Their newly acquired closer Duran, recording a save on day 1 with the Phils. A 4 pitch save!

What a night in MLB.

minor correction. The Phillies score was 5-4 after rallying from down 3-0 late in the game.

That's a terrific comeback for the Rockies. I wouldn't have believed it at first. The Brewers 16-9 score set oft records they have scored 16 runs in 4 road parks not done since the 1939 Yankees. I hadnt noticed Philly had come back either, a needed win over another great team.

Yeah the Brewers's schedule isn't very easy in August. The Mets, the Reds, the Cubs for 5, the Blue Jays end of month. .500 through there in August, would make any team happy.

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Originally Posted by theywontpayontuesday

Yeah the Brewers's schedule isn't very easy in August. The Mets, the Reds, the Cubs for 5, the Blue Jays end of month. .500 through there in August, would make any team happy.

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That 5 game series in two weeks between Cubs and Brewers could go a long way towards deciding things early. Assuming they are still tight, within a game or so, a sweep by either team would make it almost impossible to recover from. And even one team winning 4 or 5 especially if they have a game lead going in, would almost do the same.

I am glad a jumped on the Brewers bandwagon with a +150 bet to win the division when i did. In part that was you talking them up as to what a complete team they are. For a long time and even when I made that bet, I figured the Cubs would win the division. I no longer really do. I don't think the Cubs are as complete a team as Milwaukee. I think the cubs hitting in the first half of the season (for a while they were averaging over 6 runs a game), covered up some pitching deficiencies. They aren't hitting like that now. Crow-Armstrong who came out of nowhere with his first half has cooled off. It is not that he is in a slump. he has just come back to earth.

The Padres are 3 games back of the Dodgers on NL West, and they traded well and have a similarly easy schedule as the Dodgers.

There are some odds to win division that are interesting. I see value in some of these.

The Cubs are still favored over the Brewers @ cubs -140, Brewers +110. I guess people are thinking the Cubs are the cubs of the first 3 months that scored 6 runs a game and blew everyone out. I don't think they are returning to that level.

In the AL east, Toronto with a 3 game lead is -150. Yankees 3 games back are +170 and the Redsox 3.5 games back, only a half game behind the Yankees are +650. That is quite a jump for there being only half game between Yankees and Redsox. I guess people are just not believing in RedSox. I thinks someone on the broadcast said they have the best record or second best record in baseball since they traded Devers. I see value in the Redsox. I bet them at these same odds +650 two weeks ago.

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Originally Posted by theywontpayontuesday

The Padres are 3 games back of the Dodgers on NL West, and they traded well and have a similarly easy schedule as the Dodgers.

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I don't know what to make of SD. They don't hit or hit just barely enough to win. On paper they look like they should be a much better hitting team than they are. If they start hitting watch out, because their pitching, has been very good.

I suspect no matter what, they won't catch the Dodgers. No matter how bad the Dodgers look, even during a recent 6 game losing streak, you just get the feeling somehow they will do enough to win the division.

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

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Originally Posted by theywontpayontuesday

Yeah the Brewers's schedule isn't very easy in August. The Mets, the Reds, the Cubs for 5, the Blue Jays end of month. .500 through there in August, would make any team happy.

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That 5 game series in two weeks between Cubs and Brewers could go a long way towards deciding things early. Assuming they are still tight, within a game or so, a sweep by either team would make it almost impossible to recover from. And even one team winning 4 or 5 especially if they have a game lead going in, would almost do the same.

I am glad a jumped on the Brewers bandwagon with a +150 bet to win the division when i did. In part that was you talking them up as to what a complete team they are. For a long time and even when I made that bet, I figured the Cubs would win the division. I no longer really do. I don't think the Cubs are as complete a team as Milwaukee. I think the cubs hitting in the first half of the season (for a while they were averaging over 6 runs a game), covered up some pitching deficiencies. They aren't hitting like that now. Crow-Armstrong who came out of nowhere with his first half has cooled off. It is not that he is in a slump. he has just come back to earth.

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Im very excited about the Brewers. Indeed possibly too excited, nothing should matter for a week. They are very impressive when you watch them. I respect all the speed. I have bet so much on them recently, should have bet 2 or 3 times more, but it was not meant to be. It makes no sense to see +1500, when they are the best team in baseball, treating their odds like a possible wild card contender. I do fear the Cubs, you just never know what will happen then. The Cubs should be favorites at home for the 5 game series.

One problem I see with the Cubs that hasn't been talked about much, is they never really replaced Justin Steele when he went down for the year early on. Some say Rea replaced Steele, but he didn't really because he was already in the rotation. he just moved up from starter # 4 to #2. So the drop off is who is starter # 4 and 5 now. It happened so early in the year, they should have traded for another decent starter. Or at least picked on up at the deadline.

I think they failed to do that because for the first 3 months, scoring 6+ runs a game covered up some of that. Not scoring 6 runs every game, you can now start to see that drop off, not with Rea...he has been fine, but the #4 and #5 guys where Rea used to be.

Here is a little...not tip or recommendation, but just a piece of info, some betting baseball might find interesting. I visit the Covers.com site daily to check weather conditions at each ballpark. A couple other things I check out on the site as well. But before you get into any of those subsections, as soon as you log on you are greeted with 3-4 picks for the day. Mostly baseball games, but an occasion Wnba or Canadian football pick, which I ignore because I don't bet either.

So their baseball picks have been running very hot for the past 3 weeks or so. Well over 60%, maybe as high as 65%-67%. I don't know who makes those picks or how, but they have been on fire. Todays picks are Tampa Bay +120 (already under way). Milwaukee -1.5 runs, Cubs -1.5. Which will probably jinx this good run. :D

I mentioned this the other day when Miami didn't sell off many pieces as some expected they would. And after watching them play yesterday, there isn't a doubt in my mind that THEY think they are still in the WC hunt. They are 7 games out of the last WC spot and even worse would need to jump about 4 teams.

I don't think they are in the hunt, but they really do believe it. Might be fun to watch them prove me wrong. :cool:

I did like the Cubs losing. First inning for the Brewers was just batting practice.

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Originally Posted by theywontpayontuesday

I did like the Cubs losing. First inning for the Brewers was just batting practice.

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Oh yes and the Dodgers lost too. Im starting to believe a little in the Red Sox too. Toronto seems like they were on a streak and they're struggling now. Their run differential is under 20 now, was over or near 100 at some point.

As expected, the Astros odds of winning the World Series have fallen to +1200. No wonder since they are having such trouble scoring. Hasn't been +1200 since early July.

What a disaster and frankly freaking embarrassment to MLB this Bristol motor speedway game is/was. :mad:

I have 4 wagers on various overs for the game, 5 innings, and each teams totals. All 4 wagers stipulate that Strider must start for Atlanta and after the initial rain delay, he did not start, so all 4 of those wagers should be void, although they have yet to be.

In addition, I have 2 prop bets type wagers that do not stipulate who must start. One of those is a run scored in the first inning. The Reds scored a run in the first inning which should be a winner, but I have doubts it will be or that I will get paid.

Rain delays and suspension happen in baseball, but this game should have NEVER been started after the initial 2 hour delay. There was no way they were going to get much if any play in. And now everything is up in the air, waiting for sports books to make a decision.

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

kewlJ, the problem is here that you can't cast yourself as a serious poster if you are going to tell major lies to back up other stories. Even if the original stories are true, once you resort to lying in order to convince doubters that these things really happened, you've killed your own credibility.

You want your claims and stories to be taken at face value. Once you're caught fibbing, it's hard to achieve that.

I will admit that I am very puzzled regarding what is the actual truth with you.

a lot of what you write could be total fiction. You're definitely someone who isn't adverse to lying on forums if it suits you to do so.

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Originally Posted by MDawg

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

kewlJ, the problem is here that you can't cast yourself as a serious poster if you are going to tell major lies to back up other stories. Even if the original stories are true, once you resort to lying in order to convince doubters that these things really happened, you've killed your own credibility.

You want your claims and stories to be taken at face value. Once you're caught fibbing, it's hard to achieve that.

I will admit that I am very puzzled regarding what is the actual truth with you.

a lot of what you write could be total fiction. You're definitely someone who isn't adverse to lying on forums if it suits you to do so.

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Loser talk baseball. You are broken and messed up.

Brewers 14-2, another easy win for them. The Miz is hurt with a tibia fracture iirc. They are dominating so much, the fear of failure for them is gone now. On the other hand, the Astros are still failing badly 2-8 last 10 games and they continue severely struggling to hit and score. Things need to start popping and changing for them soon. I have been telling all the people I know about the Brewers and they all say the same thing. They all say in August the Dodgers will get started and blah, blah, blah, "they" will never let the Brewers win. They will regret it and Ill be laughing and jumping up and down. I do have the advantage over them having bets +4000, +2500 and +2000, so I can cash out later, reduce risk, and let still plenty ride. I've got plenty of pennant parlays with everyone notable but NY and Detroit.

Monster day for Overs. I bet 10 games and went 8-0 with 2 pushes. Would have loved another run in at least 1 of those games that pushed, but 8-0 isn't too shabby. Of the 3 games I didn't bet over, 1 made it over anyway, so if you had bet all games over, you would have done pretty damn well.

1 game remaining. I have the over 8.5. Not crazy about it. I think the Phillies will do their part. Maybe they can do both teams part. :)

Yankees are fading fast!

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Originally Posted by MDawg

UNKewlJ's stupidity explained: mental illness.

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

1 game remaining. I have the over 8.5. Not crazy about it. I think the Phillies will do their part. Maybe they can do both teams part. :)

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Was not to be. Not even close. But still an outstanding day betting overs.

I needed the under 7.5 and Phillies -1.5 and I had to sweat it the whole game.

.........

They dont know how to pitch to Vaughn anymore and hopefully there are no good answers. He is hitting so great at .375 with all kinds of RBIs and 5 HRs since July 7th. He is the key to their success or failure but every player can be like Peralta's last outing. Hopefully they all stay healthy and the month is bright for them winning many more than expected.

I am betting tomorrow on Philadelphia -200, NYM -180 and KC Royals. I have no idea what may happen, felt risky and good at the same time. Wound up being +444 so I jumped the gun and bet $300 which will mean me also betting 2×$50 profit boosts going along with them most likely. I've been splattering various Brewer-AL parlays. Added some Red Sox pennant winner with the Brewers NL. I usually bet enough to break even on all Astros bets if they lose the pennant. The odds were good enough to add the Astros too but better now.

Im keeping an eye on the odds, but it seems like one of the teams is getting more interest betting than the Brewers. My cash out values are lower since yesterday and haven't recovered and have stayed the same. I hadnt really noticed any teams winning series unexpectedly besides Baltimore over the Mets.

Weird I bet 2 parlays, the 3 teamer became +444 and mh Brewers -1.5, over 8.5, Brewers first to score and no scoreless first inning became +666.

I just made a 7 team parlay, Astros +110 @Marlins, Pirates +110 v Giants, Phillies-205 v Orioles, NYM -200 v Guardians, Brewers -145 v Braves, NYY-135 @ Rangers, Reds +120 @ Cubs. Fat chance to win $3184, but possibly my day.

I like the under @Cubs.

Darn the big parlay is dead already most likely. Shitty I was hoping for the Royals to be up 5-0 at some point, but the Red Sox are up 5-0 bottom of the first. I have no idea why I thought 5 but odd because the Astros are up 5-0 over the Marlins.

The Red Sox are -3000 now, so that means 3000/3100 in their favor, so the greedy parlay has a 3.23% of survival in this game.

Schwarber has 2 HRs today. Unfortunately I'm not betting g home runs today because I did yesterday for Schwarber and Harper whi both scored home runs. Schwarbee had 40 now, only 2 behind Raleigh. Ill have a decent win if Raleigh wins and a great payday if Schwarber. Ohtani is a little quiet lately, been a week since he scored a home run I'd guess.

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Originally Posted by theywontpayontuesday

Weird I bet 2 parlays, the 3 teamer became +444 and mh Brewers -1.5, over 8.5, Brewers first to score and no scoreless first inning became +666.

I just made a 7 team parlay, Astros +110 @Marlins, Pirates +110 v Giants, Phillies-205 v Orioles, NYM -200 v Guardians, Brewers -145 v Braves, NYY-135 @ Rangers, Reds +120 @ Cubs. Fat chance to win $3184, but possibly my day.

I like the under @Cubs.

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This parlay for $3k+ is still live. The Guardians are up with the top of their lineup in the 10th. The darned mets had bases loaded with 1 out and failed to win in the bottom of the 9th. The Pirates won 5-4 down 4-3 in the bottom of the 9th to make this still live. Yankees winning and Reds tied so far.

Guardians scored 2 in the top of the 10th. The odds of the Mets winning 15%. The Mets lost 7-6. Could have cashed out barely $200, but held onto the last out and failed.

It's such a shame too the Pirates stadium is 90% empty when they have been playing so well recently.

Im happy the Brewrers won and the Cubs lost. The Brewers schedule is pretty brutal from here on out. The Reds won by a literal foot, they thought the Cub made first and the run scored with 2 outs, but his foot landed close to the bag, but the other took too long to touch the bag. The Brewers schedule I think is a beast, but for them the present is their future and they need to avoid slumps. Slumps can cost the Brewers everything. The Astros hit well today against the mighty Alcantara teams were dying to get, so hopefully the Astros snap out of their slump. The George Alexander curse was lifted, he pitched 6 innings, allowed 3 hits and no earned runs. He pitched the first game against the As leading into the massacres. I am not confident about the Astros until they win a series in the playoffs first if they're lucky enough to stay in the playoffs which was once 98% certainty. Fingers crossed.

Im happy the Brewrers won and the Cubs lost. The Brewers schedule is pretty brutal from here on out. The Reds won by a literal foot, they thought the Cub made first and the run scored with 2 outs, but his foot landed close to the bag, but the other took too long to touch the bag. The Brewers schedule I think is a beast, but for them the present is their future and they need to avoid slumps. Slumps can cost the Brewers everything. The Astros hit well today against the mighty Alcantara teams were dying to get, so hopefully the Astros snap out of their slump. The George Alexander curse was lifted, he pitched 6 innings, allowed 3 hits and no earned runs. He pitched the first game against the As leading into the massacres. The fact remains at this very moment I have not made good bets as the cash out values for Astros are not available or available for an almost 50% loss on Astros. Brewers bets are mostly cash out for your bet or unavailable because so low or small profit on the +4000. Hopefully August will be hot all the way through no worries. It's just 3-0 wins scare me after Washington the second coming of the 1939 Yankees. I want to see them do it again.

2hi

The Dodgers and Yankees both lost. It's hard to see the Yankees as contenders anymore. Judge will be coming back and he won't be able to carry them, they're not good. The Dodgers might be, mlb hosts keep selling them with no hesitation.

It's a weird schedule, Phillies at Brewers 9/1, skip a day, then 9/4 and 9/5.

I have become a little disappointed the Brewers odds of winning pennant and world series haven't gotten better. There is some consensus thinking there aren't many ways to determine who will do well in the playoffs and have confidence. Best pitching, best bullpen, best receivers, best hitters, best home run hitters, nothing really has a lot of weight. There isn't any great way to predict playoff success.