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they have the first pre-season game up - August 3 - Browns favored by 1.5 over the Jets - see linkQuote:
Originally Posted by accountinquestion
they will surely have the other games as we get closer in time to them - the next preseason game is August 11
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https://sportsbook.draftkings.com/le...Fnfl-preseason
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the NBA and also college hoops is different than the other major sports because NBA home teams wins 62.5% of their games - a much higher % than any other major sport
college hoops teams win a little higher % at home I believe
I wanted to see if the record of great home teams ats was very good and if terrible away teams would have a horrible away record ats
for the last season I only considered teams that were great at home winning over 67% of their home games
and teams that were horrible away losing over 67% of their away games
as you can see from the link their were 6 teams that had great home records winning over 67% of their home games - Bucks, Celtics, 76ers, Cavaliers, Nuggets and Grizzlies
all 6 of these teams also had a great ats record - winning 143 games and losing 97 ats - winning 59.5% for an impressive 13.73% r.o.i.
there were 3 teams with terrible away records losing more than 67% of their away games - Rockets, Spurs, and Pistons
every one of those 3 teams also got crushed ats when away
they lost 79 times and won 47 times - losing 63.8% ats of the time and giving the bettor who bet against them every time a fantastic 19.7% r.o.i.
of course, you can't know at the beginning of the season which teams will be great at home and which teams will be horrible away
but you can know it by mid-season at the All Star break and the % will likely follow for the entire year
we're talking about teams that are great at home with an overall home record such as 32-9 -
and teams that are horrible away with an overall away record such as 8-33
I could not find records such as this for other years - but it is a fairly significant sample size - over 350 games total - of course there's never a guarantee - I will for sure track this next season
pushes were not considered
https://www.vegasinsider.com/nba/against-the-spread/
I like what you're posting. You've piqued my interest in sports betting again.Quote:
Originally Posted by Half Smoke
If the home-game NBA thing was true and not randomness, wouldn't you expect it to hold year to year? Basically a function of the fan+team dynamic? Maybe only teams that are winning and this creates some sort of dynamic between fans and teams?
thanks - I would expect that anyone who follows this strategy after the All Star break next year is likely to be profitableQuote:
Originally Posted by accountinquestionI like what you're posting. You've peaked my interest in sports betting.Quote:
Originally Posted by Half Smoke
If the home-game NBA thing was true and not randomness, wouldn't you expect it to hold year to year? Basically a function of the fan+team dynamic? Maybe only teams that are winning and this creates some sort of dynamic between fans and teams?
but I'm not at all sure it would be by that much - that's something I wouldn't care to take a guess about
but my answer to what I think you're asking is yes - I expect that every year there will be teams that are great at home and teams that are terrible away
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I wondered if MLB totals were an efficient market when the totals are set high or low
doing no handicapping - using covers.com - the final line which they show the day after the game - I've tracked the entire 2023 MLB season when the total was set at 7.5 or lower
the over has won so far - going 134-100 - 57.6% - I also tracked 50 games of the previous season when the total was 7.5 or lower and got the over winning 29-21 - almost the exact same %
I was going to wait to post the entire season - but this seems pretty strong - almost 300 games were tracked - so I posted now in case anybody wanted to bet this the 2nd half of the season - we're at the All Star break - the next league game is this Friday
I will continue to track this until I've finished the entire 2023 season and will see if the 2nd half matches up with the first half
I don't really know the reason for this - don't want to make a guess - but if I had to guess I would guess the books are pushing the line down beyond what it really should be knowing more bettors will bet the under when there is a very strong pitcher or pitchers
I also tracked the o/u when the total was set high - at 9.5 or greater - I tracked about 100 games and found nothing interesting - no edge to be found
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Spanky will interview Billy Walters at Bet Bash 3 next week. The Bash is below redietz dignity....but not Billy Walters. He'll be there.
Also, they will induct several sports bettors into the inaugural Sports Gambling Hall of Fame. Redietz name is not on the list. How could they have forgotten? Oh well, maybe next year.
https://mail.yahoo.com/d/folders/1/m...SE1jYu8qNja75s
Yes, casinos always invite groups of long-term winning card counters to "Counting Bashes" because it's in the best interests of the counters to network and exchange expertise with each other under the gentle auspices of the casinos. While paying for the honor. You know it's a collection of savvy long-term winners who don't need investors.
Meanwhile, the Wise Guys Contest has been reinstated after a two-year Covid hiatus. The contest is more than 30 years old and is invitation-only. Far as I know, for all those years of the contest, I have the best college football ATS record in the contest and the second or third best combined college/NFL. I received an invitation, but since I'm formally retired, I probably will pass for this year. I think about 60 people received invitations this season.
I'm glad "Spanky" is interviewing Mr. Walters. Some people interview him. Some people were vetted by him.
By the way, if Mr. Walters is operating with even a semblance of what he once did, I would completely expect him to be at something like Bet Bash. The reasons are obvious if you ever actually read what I've written about Mr. Walters.
When do you expect you will be nominated for the Sports Gambling Hall Of Fame?Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimmWhen do you expect you will be nominated for the Sports Gambling Hall Of Fame?Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
I don't think any single-sport specialist is likely to make a hall of fame, although some of the college hoops specialists probably deserved it. It's like being a clay court specialist.
It's interesting you mention the subject, though. Marc Lawrence, Jr, may have some thoughts on that. Marc Jr. has spent his entire life immersed in the business of sports betting as son of Marc Sr -- who publishes the biggest selling combo football annual in the US. I suggest you give Marc. Jr. a call and ask him his thoughts. Don't be shy.
I heard they were going to have a panel on contest handicappers this year but then the play money poker tournament players demanded they get a panel too and things got a little dicey.
Actually, Barona casino and Max Rubin DO.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
I spent too much time (5 minutes) trying to find this wise guys contest to understand what it actually is. Apparently it is such an important successful thing they are hiding it by not having a functional website !
Half the links are Redietz talking about it on WOV.
For such an important thing you would think they'd have a basic webpage with historical results.
If anyone can find a link that says what this tournament is maybe you could help me out. do you put up cash? Do you just pick winners on a spread they provide?
My assumption here is that it is a free pick'em contest. It would explain why Redietz mocks the concept of EV. (which funnily just makes him look worse given how every sharp bettor has a differing opinion)
Anyone have a functional link to this contest?
I'm guessing here but what I am reading suggests that actual successful bettors wouldn't be messing with this to begin with. What would the incentive be? A lot of work for a marginal amount of EV. Winning bettors want the money not the accolades by some small group of largely irrelevant people.
I know I am irrelevant but at least I understand my position in this world.
Quote:
Originally Posted by smurgerburger
Your comments would mean something if you had any knowledge of monitors and the history of handicappers being monitored.
For example, there was a monitor for decades called the AADSS that competed directly against "Tipsters or Gypsters?" as a way to evaluate handicappers. I tried to sign up with the AADSS 10K starting bankroll but was horrified to discover that the bankroll was "mythical" and the AADSS used play money wagers as a way to rank and evaluate handicappers. Of course, it was a worthless mess. Everybody just fired max bets to make the top 10 every week. It was a joke.
This is in contrast to serious monitors (McCusker's Tipsters or Gypsters?, Handicappers' Report Card, The Sports Monitor, The Buffalo Satellite Handicap, etc.) that provided the handicappers' records and, in the case of McCusker, multi-year records with percentages, net wins or losses, and return on investment as categories.
Dan Druff, this site's owner, posts his actual plays. You can see if he wins or loses. Monitors have always tracked services and handicappers in the same way. The Wise Guys Contest is two plays a week. Well, I've been in it for 30 years. Two plays every week of every football season for 30 years. You can't hide when your plays are public.
This whole "AP" mythos that actual plays don't matter has some marginal merit. You can win without committing to actual plays. But what the "APs" try to sell is that you can win without knowing the teams, without knowing the lines before they appear, and where the lines are likely to go. In reality, you need to (1) know the teams thoroughly, (2) know the betting public and the psychology of the betting public thoroughly, (3) know or at least suspect when particular hitters are doing things for particular reasons, and many other things. These require expertise and experience.
What bothers me about someone like smurger, and frankly mickey and other alleged advantage players on this site, is that if they knew all of the above, sure, go ahead and post whatever you want. But if you don't know anything about what monitors are reliable and have been for decades or anything about the history of sports betting, why type responses that are all snark and no brains? All you do is demonstrate that you have zero expertise and that you're happy to flaunt it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by accountinquestion
The good thing about you, account, is that your posts are so expert that no responses are necessary. But I appreciate you chiming in.
You know, when Betfair was forced to report how many of their million-plus bettors made more than six digits in a given year, the number was less than two dozen. So I wish you well in that search for "successful bettors."
Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
"mythos". APs don't say anything about plays. WTF are you talking about? We're just saying that it is possible to beat sports without knowing the sport but it really depends on the lines to begin with.
All you need is a sharper line to base your bets off and a book with lines off enough that your calculated EV is positive. That means taking the vig into account.
I love it how you explain the views of others without having 1 fucking clue about what you're talking about.
The fact that you are so quick to misrepresent others make me suspect you misrepresent yourself.
Another misrepresentation of what I said. You can't give us online wise guys results but it has been going on for 30 years and you didn't take the invite because you are "retired"Quote:
Originally Posted by redietzQuote:
Originally Posted by accountinquestion
The good thing about you, account, is that your posts are so expert that no responses are necessary. But I appreciate you chiming in.
You know, when Betfair was forced to report how many of their million-plus bettors made more than six digits in a given year, the number was less than two dozen. So I wish you well in that search for "successful bettors."
Anyway, what you have posted speaks for itself. Maybe if you can convince some utter suckers you're some "wise guy" and either get investment money for your freeroll or be invited on some podcast somewhere. lol.
You reference this thing continually as a source of your credibility but where's the beef?
And finally, I have to rub this in.
I was in a no-spread NFL handicapping contest at Topbet last year. I finished first out of 1300-and-some entries. Now, is this some life-changing event? No, it's a matter-of-fact demonstration of skill. Have any of the alleged APs on this site ever done something comparable? I have no idea. My guess is that they are too modest to report something like that.
Most of the folks offering opinions vis-a-vis sports betting on this forum are anonymous and clueless. Frankly, given their cluelessness, they should remain anonymous.
I've been working as a sports gambling consultant for a filmmaker and for George Anastasia's radio podcast The Gangster Chronicles for IHeartradio. It must be because I have so much experience with play money.
Why would an AP give a shit about a "demonstration of skill" ?? lol. Serious guys go by their hourly and i'm guessing here but those tournaments likely have a crap hourly.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
So where's the link to this contest? How can it be so hidden?!??!
I posted links to The Wise Guys Contest at least a dozen times on this forum. Jesus, man, how lazy are you?
The "AP" with his "hourly wage." LOL.