The WoV Thread

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Originally Posted by coach belly

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

I can't speak for others

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I haven't asked you to speak for others.

Based on your knowledge of "how things work", will you stipulate that the majority of freeplay offered does not result in a +EV play, when considering the previous play that generated the offer?

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Let me ask the question differently. 8/5 Bonus has an expected return of 99.17%

Does your free play along with the 99.17% give you a positive return?

I'm curious about this because I wonder what the rate of awarding free play is?

I've often thought it was 0.1% and then combined with the actual play of the free play dollars what's the total expected return?

I'm not arguing Kewlj. I'm just asking.

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

No. That is 100% incorrect for me and my play.

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My question was not specific to you and your play. But if ydk, then ydk.

In any case, the player who wins $200 in 2 minutes on a -EV machine and leaves, is similar to a player who cashes $10 out of $15 in freeplay in 2 minutes and leaves.

Neither required a positive expectation play, their criteria for stopping/quitting/pausing was winning for that visit, and all the consideration necessary to trigger their exit.

And, if you don't think that exercise can be repeated, then you are 100% incorrect.

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

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Originally Posted by coach belly

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

I can't speak for others

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I haven't asked you to speak for others.

Based on your knowledge of "how things work", will you stipulate that the majority of freeplay offered does not result in a +EV play, when considering the previous play that generated the offer?

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Let me ask the question differently. 8/5 Bonus has an expected return of 99.17%

Does your free play along with the 99.17% give you a positive return?

I'm curious about this because I wonder what the rate of awarding free play is?

I've often thought it was 0.1% and then combined with the actual play of the free play dollars what's the total expected return?

I'm not arguing Kewlj. I'm just asking.

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I think we are talking about 2 different things here regarding free play Alan. I am not talking about free play from points earned from the initial free play. I am talking about the mailer free play offers. I know you are familiar with this.

Here is how it worked for me. When I moved to Vegas, it was to pursue blackjack card counting, which I have done. But an AP on another forum convinced me that not playing a limited amount of video poker which generated very disproportional mailer free play offers was in his words "leaving money on the table". Just a relatively small amount of play through say $5000 (which was my starting point would generate mailers that contained $150-$200 in free play amounts (usually broken up into weekly or other segments, from the local type casinos, which were at the time vying for the local players. So the 1% expected loss ($50) was more than offset by the free play generated. And that was just for the first month. That one time play through would generate mailer offers, for several months, although they would decline if no other big play through occurred. So after 3 or 4 months, I would hit another big play through and start the cycle all over again.

Now that was 2010, 2011, when these local mailer offers were so strong. Like I said the Boyds, and stations, and Palms, and Hard Rock, Terribles (now Silver7), LVH (now Westgate), South Point were all aggressively competing for local players. Some of the best mailers were from some real unlikely sources like Club Fortune, and Arizona Charlies, Eastside Cannery, Jerry's nugget and a couple other smaller places. WAY WAY disproportional to the initial amount of play through that generated them.

So those good times lasted 5 or 6 years or so, until first Boyd, followed by Stations and others began to cut back. It is now a fraction of what it used to be.

Stations was actually the best because you could get 4 different mailers from them, broken up into groups of properties. I would get a mailer from the basic Stations, another mailer from fiestas, a third mailer from Wild west, Barley's and Wilfire and a fourth mailer from table play at Green Valley and Red Rock combined.

So THAT is what I am talking about and did for years which accounted for over 20% of my income for many years. It is barely profitable for me now.

And you would learn exactly what amounts generated what mail free play amounts. It would be different at different places. You would want to play only that amount that generated the return you were after. No sense in playing more if it didn't change the amount. Add in multiple accounts at some of the better places (my partner was alive then) and was a pretty good money maker.

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Originally Posted by coach belly

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

No. That is 100% incorrect for me and my play.

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My question was not specific to you and your play. But if ydk, then ydk.

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Well I said, I can't speak for others and you replied you weren't asking me to speak for others. Now you seem to be again asking me to speak to other player's experiences. :confused:

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

Well I said, I can't speak for others and you replied you weren't asking me to speak for others. Now you seem to be again asking me to speak to other player's experiences.

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I was asking what you know to be an industry standard, not about your anecdotal experiences or anyone else's.

You've always been willing to offer your knowledge on "how things work" regarding high limit players, how did you come by that information if not speaking for yourself or others?

Yes. Mailers can vary dramatically.

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

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Originally Posted by The Boz

And for anyone who wonders why Chrissy Mitchell continues to find suckers to give him money, I present Example 1, Mr Alan.

Basically he is saying use Chrissy Martingale system and you will be up at one point and then just quit.

Chrissy even sells a coloring book showing how you can start with less than $100 and within a year you will be a millionaire within a year by doing exactly what Alan believes.

Here is the link Alan if you want to buy it.

https://www.amazon.com/Millionaire-B...s=books&sr=1-1

All you have to do is quit when ahead each day and increase the bets each day. Easy peasy.

Dude must love being a punching bag more than the drunk guy who fucked with Mike Tyson on the plane yesterday.

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Yeah, like I said that?

Thanks Mr Bozo for more of your fabricated shit.

I see that I made a mistake coming back.

Janet was discharged from the hospital last night. We're back to daily outpatient visits.

Go back to your fictional sandbox antics.

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You knew in advance it would be a mistake to come back. Just look at the stuff you called this place, it’s posters and it’s owner. What did you think changed?

But you still came back and you won’t leave.

I would say much more but you have a history of threatening to sue others over online comments.

One thing is for sure, until your last day and after, you’ll always be Alan, the guy who still believes he saw 18 Yo’s in a row.

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

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Originally Posted by smurgerburger

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

I'm not the one who keeps playing. I can tell myself when to leave.

You're asking the wrong person.

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You still don't understand. Why are you playing at all?

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Why don't you just put me on ignore?

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Why would I put you on ignore?

I asked why you are playing (gambling) at all, not why are you posting.

The numbers are obviously reversed and anyone who believes that 70% or 97% of players are up from jump street don't understand what the drop is.
I'd ask tableplay to confirm and show us all the math but why bother?
Tards are gonna Tard... RIP.

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Originally Posted by monet

anyone who believes that 70% or 97% of players are up from jump street don't understand what the drop is.

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Why would Vegas Tic make that up?

And then why follow up by claiming that 99% of visitors leave as losers?

What's his angle?

I am a recreational player.
I saw a random shooter throw 18 yos in a row.
Does that answer your questions?

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

I saw a random shooter throw 18 yos in a row.

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Here we go again, LOL

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Originally Posted by monet

The numbers are obviously reversed and anyone who believes that 70% or 97% of players are up from jump street don't understand what the drop is.
I'd ask tableplay to confirm and show us all the math but why bother?
Tards are gonna Tard... RIP.

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Is it your feeling that even less than 70% ever have a profit during their visits?

Bbbbbwwaaahhhhhhhhhhh, some cat claim to see 18 y-o in a row at the dices table, hey hey????

Though I don't know the exact math it is a very large hill to climb to be ahead in a session where it's an even money bet and the likelyhood of winning a decision is less than 50%. You have to have some very good luck.

On a 47.5% success rate you have just a 22.25% chance of winning two in a row. Three in a row , 10.7%.

The thing about the Royer claim is that no math has been put up to prove it though it's been quite awhile since he made the claim. The reason why is no one, not even the Wizard can develop an equation that will prove it. That's because it's impossible to write an equation proving at least 70% winners at some point in a gambling session. The reason it's impossible is because it's impossible for 70% of Las Vegas gamblers to be ahead at some point during their gambling session. Hence, there is no possible equation proving it possible.

Mickeycrimm I would venture that 90+% of Vegas gamblers are not making even money bets. My guess is 90+% of Vegas gamblers are at slot machines. Because of the pays on slots there's no need to win multiple bets or successive bets to be ahead.

18 yo’s in a row: yes
Counting two tables: no.

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Originally Posted by mcap

18 yo’s in a row: yes
Counting two tables: no.

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I know you are trying to goad me into something here. But the fact is that some very real players that you know or know of, have stated that they have done some variation of tracking or counting a second table at times.

Unfortunately, this technique is getting harder as the right conditions are less and less frequent. Much less opportunity in what I will call post-covid than pre-covid. Although the real problem started before covid ever came along with fewer "pure" blackjack games and more and more " bj variation" type games taking up space on the floor.

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

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Originally Posted by mcap

18 yo’s in a row: yes
Counting two tables: no.

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I know you are trying to goad me into something here. But the fact is that some very real players that you know or know of, have stated that they have done some variation of tracking or counting a second table at times.

Unfortunately, this technique is getting harder as the right conditions are less and less frequent. Much less opportunity in what I will call post-covid than pre-covid. Although the real problem started before covid ever came along with fewer "pure" blackjack games and more and more " bj variation" type games taking up space on the floor.

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KewlJ, could you comment on something a friend passed along regarding his Golden Nugget stay a week or so ago. He said just one table was 3/2 and that was $50 minimum, I think, and opened after 7Pm or 8 PM each night. So the rest of the tables were 6/5 and had mandatory junk bets of a dollar minimum on top of them. What are these longshot junk bets at the BJ table, how can casinos make them mandatory and still call it "blackjack," and is this a growing trend around Las Vegas?

He used to really like the GN, but the number of playable tables has gotten ridiculous. The place is treating people as if they're addicts who'll play anything. And this is a guy who pounded a million dollars through at Pechanga in 48 hours or thereabouts to get a black card back in the day. If they're alienating players like him, what is their game plan?

How can they still call it blackjack? I have no idea. I have felt that way about 6:5 also. :rolleyes:

GN started that I guess 4-5 years ago. They had decent games and were in my rotation my first 5-6 years in Vegas, but then went to that crap.

I wasn't aware they had 3:2 $50 min at night. I'll have to check that out. Generally I avoid downtown at night...probably why I wasn't aware.