Let me give you, Arc, a principle of mathematics that I live by:
When I win money from the casino it is no longer the casino's money -- it is my money. There is no reason to risk giving it back.
Now, how's that for a mathematical principle?
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Let me give you, Arc, a principle of mathematics that I live by:
When I win money from the casino it is no longer the casino's money -- it is my money. There is no reason to risk giving it back.
Now, how's that for a mathematical principle?
As usual when you are losing the debate to jump off into la la land with something irrelevant. As I've already mentioned many times you can stop whenever you want. No one telling you to keep playing. What you are being told is in the long run those decisions have no influence on your long term results.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
You lost the debate. It's not about your math. It's about coming home with more money. That's all it is and that's all it ever was. YOU keep bringing up math and let the math get in the way of simple economics. We go to casinos to enjoy ourselves and hopefully to win. So when you win, why should you keep playing and give it back?
Exactly! So you should be fine as long as you don't go back to the casino. For once, we agree on something.
Economics is based on math. How can math get in the way? Your claims are getting more and more irrational as you try and defend nonsense. Even your last sentence is just plain silly. If you keep playing it is no different that when you return the next time. You have exactly the same chance of winning or "giving it back". Essentially, your logic requires that you NEVER return.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
The long term math proponents disregard the fact that a large portion of gamblers lack the control to follow a sensible plan. If they have a lead, they are likely to stay until they have lost all their earlier profits and then some. That is the benefit of what Alan has been saying about taking a profit. Forget the long term, because there is no long term if you run out of bullets. Look at the realities of gambling. The reality is that most people play until they are out of $$$. If instead they leave with a profit, they are ahead of where they would otherwise likely have wound up, math or not. And again, please remember that most of us are playing a negative game anyway.
If we can't think positive about our negative games, there wouldn't be any compelling reason to go back to the casinos, would there?Quote:
Originally Posted by regnis
No one is promoting playing until you lose all your money. That is another straw man. The question is whether win/loss goals can change your results over time. Simple mathematics shows that is not possible with a random VP game. Now, if you want to talk about the psychology of players then we can have that discussion, but don't confuse topics.Quote:
Originally Posted by regnis
Also, many addicted players got that way by hitting big wins. The excitement of winning draws them back to the casino. Hence, it could turn out that leaving for whatever reason after winning money could bring the person back sooner and cause them to gamble more often which over time results in losing more money. Had they gambled away the big win they might not have returned at all.
I like to think negatively about my positive games.
So... you rule out the possibility of winning again? How sad.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
Really? Is it written in stone anywhere that you must lose? Where is it written? I want to see it.Quote:
Originally Posted by arcimede$
Of course it's not written anywhere but inside his mind Alan. His downfall is easily explained by his warped belief that -EV means you cannot win over time, and +EV means you can. B&W. The human mind and will is irrelevant, and you MUST perform exactly as the math books theoretically calculate. Going to the moon is impossible. 200mph by a stock automobile is impossible. Having a baby at 60 is impossible.
It is all so simple to see thru this poor guy.
What is written in stone is the probability distribution. Since you have no control of the cards that will appear whenever you play a hand (or N hands), you cannot control where you end up in the probability distribution. It means your decision of when to play and when to quit has no bearing on where you end up. It is pure random variance.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Typical blathering from an uneducated fool. Notice that nowhere did I say that you cannot win on a -EV game or that you will win on a +EV game. The payback of game and the distribution of the payouts determines the probability distribution of the results. Or, more simply said, what your chances are of winning or losing. Over time (the more hands you play) the distribution becomes more densely packed (that is, you approach the expected return of the game). The only things that matter are the game itself and the number of hands. Nowhere is the timing of the hands a factor.Quote:
Originally Posted by Rob.Singer
Simple, basic statistics. Anyone who claims they can control your return by changing the timing of the hands is lying.
Would you please read what you are writing and realize that this mumbo jumbo means nothing is written in stone. I asked you where it is written that I must lose? All you give are probabilities.Quote:
Originally Posted by arcimede$
So here is a probability for you: if I cash out with a profit I probably never will lose.
That's right. Alan has the ability, by stopping his play at various points, to outperform probability. He's blessed by God.
And Rob, your will allows you to outperform what the math predicts -- over and over again. You are also blessed by God.
So the only question is, should we join The Church of Alan or The Church of Rob? I humbly suggest that Alan gets more women, but Rob has more schlong. So it's a tough call. Personally, I'd like more women, but I'd really like a bigger schlong. And as I get older, I'm leaning more to schlong. Plus, if I ever decide to can the heterosexual bit, schlong would be more valuable.
"It is difference of opinion that makes horse races." - Mark Twain
Alan, if you win Powerball you will be rich. The world is full of broke fools who didn't understand the meaning of the word "if". The probability of you achieving any particular result playing VP (or Powerball) is a simple math calculation that is written in stone. Nothing you do can move you into the better results part of that distribution. It is all random. Why do you insist on claiming that you know more than all the PhD mathematicians in the world?Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
I would ask why you think that probability or odds are a definitive predictor of ones results. No one has claimed that the math is wrong. But as said 100 times in this forum, if you are lucky enough to be ahead of the math, it is good to take your winnings.Quote:
Originally Posted by arcimede$
If the math is written in stone then you believe the math will catch up with you so you really better quit and run.
Definitive predictor of a range of results with higher probability of being in the center of the range. And, the more you play the higher the probability that you move towards the center.Quote:
Originally Posted by regnis
It is not "good" or "bad" to take your winnings. When you claim "it is good to take your winnings you are claiming the "math is wrong". You contradicted yourself in your very next sentence. That is the key point. It makes no difference over time.Quote:
Originally Posted by regnis