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I thought I answered this before, but here is the urban dictionary of Regnis.
Top definition
regnis
A small young man who has few friends and sleeps in the nude. Known in Ancient Egypt as a life-like monkey.
That should explain it much more clearly V.
It's obvious that Yung and Welfare Rob Argentino, two guys who have bragged about their education in mathematics, don't know the gambling equation or they would have put it up just to rub it in my face. It's a very simple equation so they have no excuse for not knowing it if they are so boned up on math as they say they are. Argentino, in hundreds of thousands of posts on the internet, has never really talked math except in very general terms. He can't be specific on any of it.
Okay, so here is the gambling equation:
PAYOFF/PROBABILITY
That's payoff divided by probability. It works on everything. Take the one roll boxcars bet at craps. The payoff is:
30 to 1 expressed as 31 for 1
The probability is 1 in 36 rolls
31/36 = 86.11%
1 minus .8611 = 13.89%
Go online and look up house edges for craps bets. You will see that the one roll boxcars bet has a house edge of 13.89%.
In roulette:
The chance of your number hitting is 1 in 38. The payoff is 35 to 1 expressed as 36 for 1.
36/38 = 94.7368%
1 minus .947368 = 5.2632%
Go online and look up the house edge for this type roulette bet and you will see it's 5.2632%.
These are just a couple of examples off the top of my head. I learned this equation 22 years ago when I was just starting out. It was in Dan Paymar's book on video poker, Precision Play.
How does the gambling equation work in the real world of AP? I was on a progressive play just the other day. It was $1 progressive Almost Positive Deuces Wild with a 10K royal. The meter runs at 1%. When I found it I subtracted the 4K reset from 10K to get 6K then divided by 5 to get the number of extra bets in the meter, 1200. Then I divided 1200 by the royal odds, 43,500 to get the add-on, 2.76%. I already knew that APDW is a 99.96% game so adding 2.76% to it means its 102.7% play without a strategy shift. With a shift it would bring it up to about 103%.
At 1000 HPH its a $150 an hour play plus the meter movement.
Welfare Rob, in his infinite ignorance, says you can't make money on plays like this. That's baloney. If you could play $1 APDW with a 10K royal 40 hours a week, 50 weeks a year, it would be worth $300,000 a year.
I'm not a DW player but mickeycrimm you'll have to slowly explain to me the play in the photo above, holding a deuce with 9d and 10d? You weren't hoping for a straight flush were you?
3 to a SF with 1 wild with 0 or 1 gaps is the correct hold at 67 or higher
45 or higher (depending on penalty cards) in these games that pay 10 or higher for the SF. And you even hold one gappers (2,97s) as well.Quote:
Originally Posted by pepe
For those that are curious, here is the optimal strategy for this game with the royal that high (103.1%):Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
https://wizardofodds.com/games/video...-d-200-d-2031/
That's a fairly rare find nowadays when you add the 1% meter move. What's the player's card worth? Mail? Good Comps?
Heres a question. 1) Let's pretend its a single machine and only you can play it forever. Let's assume you know all the RF breaks down to the penny. Whats it worth? Some might say you just add the 1% To the base pay but, I don't think its that simple. If you are making changes to the strategy as the meter goes up you are skewing what originally gave you that 99.96. If you just play the 99.96 strategy it doesn't seem like you get the full 1% .
2) you always randomly go in at random and play an open bank can you now claim the full 1% meter move?
It would seem so, however since you are probably going to be the one adding a big chunk to the meter yourself, and have to sleep, people tend to jump on progressives as they get higher.
If it were close we would certainlly jump on it and play untill it hits.Quote:
Originally Posted by jbjbFor those that are curious, here is the optimal strategy for this game with the royal that high (103.1%):Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
https://wizardofodds.com/games/video...-d-200-d-2031/
1. If you play it straight through non-stop with the 99.96% strategy, with a 1% meter, then you’ll just get a 100.96% return. Eventually you’ll hit the RF. Another way to think of it, imagine the 1% meter was on the 3-of-kind, certainly you’re going to be hitting that. Or another way, imagine you get paid that 1% back immediately after every hand.Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolf
Of course that’s more of “in theory”, because IRL you have to worry about competition and whatnot.
If you know and play variable strategy (IE: the strategy down to the penny), then I’m not sure. I’ll take a stab in the dark and say it’s worth MORE than 100.96% if played straight through, no competition, etc.
2. On average, it’s going to be some amount above reset. Actually, very rarely is it going to be exactly at reset. Even if it’s at $4,000.01, you gain a tad of an advantage (not saying it’s worth it) over reset. So the base game will be above 99.96%* if you go in randomly. As far as claiming that 1% in the meter move, I don’t think anyone can answer that, since it entirely depends on competition and not even something you could calculate with simple theory. You’d have to know what kind of competition exists and potentially how long between your sessions (5 minutes between a session is way different than 5 weeks between a session).
If you play it until it hits, you can claim that 1%. But if you don’t....I don’t really know how much of that 1% you could add to your EV.
@Alan — deuce + suited connectors are proper in deuces wild and even one gappers (279) in most of all DW games I play.
* Or whatever the exact base return is.
Alan, the pic shows the analysis of the hand in question on Frugal Video Poker. You can see that holding the 29T has an average return of 5.8 coins. Holding just the deuce or holding the 4-card straight has an average value of just 5 coins. So the 29T is the far superior hold.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
I'm late for making my lap though the casinos today. I'll get back to the other questions in the thread when I get back in this evening.
I'm like a teener leaguer compared to MLB (mickeycrimm, Axelwolf, RS, jbjb, tableplay, arci, and so on) in terms of knowing video poker holds, but even I know the standard hold is 9/10 suited with a deuce. Yay! That may be my first video poker proper-hold post.
I have a feeling that Alan would hold 22 over 22 9 10 ss guys like him will give up EV for the bigger hits since they are always playing for the short run(Over and over and over and over and over and over agian)Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
Clearly you're trolling me. I'll say it again, I don't play DW or even know the intricacies of the game.Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolfI have a feeling that Alan would hold 22 over 22 9 10 ss guys like him will give up EV for the bigger hits since they are always playing for the short run(Over and over and over and over and over and over agian)Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
Troll someone else.
Wow six grand at 1% meter means what, one hundred twenty thousand hands without hitting? The royal must be due like We The People
Assuming it takes an average of 40k hands for a royal, it's got about a 5% chance to get that high. Even at 30k/hands per royal, it's about 1.8% chance.Quote:
Originally Posted by quahaug
Really?Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
Wanna bet?
In most DW games a natural royal hits about 1 in 45,000 hands.
Location is such a big factor. I saw frenetic action from a pro VP team (locking up 5 seats for as long as took to hit) when a NRF Jackpot got up to $8100 ($1 denom, 5 coin, DDB) at a large, popular casino several months ago. And then a ghost town good for anyone interested in taking down a $10,1XX.XX jackpot ($1 denom, 5 coin, BP Poker IIRC) at a smaller mid-size locals casino - four empty seats (in a square formation), every time I went there for other plays and observed it in passing over four weeks until it got hit ($1 denom, 5 coin, BP Poker IIRC).Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolf
Since we're discussing Deuces here...
I haven't done the calculations, but in my personal experience, the FPDW machines tend to have far less variance than the full pay JoB/BP/DDBP type machines.
Is this true?
Or has it just fallen that way for me?