I wonder what redietz would say if he knew that the concept of EV were applied rampantly in poker.
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I wonder what redietz would say if he knew that the concept of EV were applied rampantly in poker.
Redeitz, which AP, Axelwolf, AinQ, ect said that what they are doing in regards to promo based sports betting which by the math makes their play +EV (because of the promo or other situation), rivals the decades long ability of yourself or your hero Billy Waters?
If whatever these guys are doing were to dry up tomorrow as you said, these guys would just move on to the next +EV opportunity (which they are actually likely already doing) and it wouldn't even involve sports betting.
That is the whole point....what these guys are claiming is not about sports betting, it is about finding +EV opportunities. This particular one just happens to involve sports betting. You seem to be taking offense that this opportunity for however long it has existed, months, years, and however long it remains is some threat to your legacy or history of 40 years of more traditional sports betting and sports picking. It is no way tarnishes your history. The two are not connected. They are apples to oranges.
Your mention of the late Alan Mendelson and his very biased, negative, anti-AP rhetoric (things like secret AP club) is very disappointing. I don't know why you would go there.
I think some of this is because you think you need to answer to Rob Singers nonsensical challenges of your past and history. YOU DON'T! Singer is a nut with zero credibility.
Once again he is bringing up Billy Waters. Then he seems to think people are claiming they do better than Billy Waters. Redietz makes strawmen like no one else.Quote:
Originally Posted by smurgerburger
He finally get something right though, that promotions are not something APs can rely on being around forever. Still a strawman of sorts since people aren't claiming any promotion will be around forever. Nothing will. What a clown.
You have got to be kidding. Have you no shame?Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
Fuck you coach belly....and the 14 year old boy you rode in on. Oh wait....you already did!Quote:
Originally Posted by coach bellyYou have got to be kidding. Have you no shame?Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
Nothing wrong with what I said. I am sorry Alan passed and may he rest in peace, but Alan Mendelson, was very anti-AP. He didn't like players that won based on the math and frankly didn't even believe in the math. He probably didn't understand the math in most cases. If anyone needs confirmation of this, there are thousands of posts here and at WoV that prove what I am saying. These facts don't change because Alan passed away.
Just to be clear. Redietz's point is pretty lame. Everyone here who is sharp gets it. There is not EV that can definitively be calculated. However there is still something like a theoretical EV.
If you want to be able to understand it - think of it like this. You are God and can restart a game a billion times and average out the results. Then knowing that, you could go look at any bet and figure out the edge you have or the EV. That is the EV but it requires faith and you will never be 100% correct. I'm not sure what a better term would be but at least "EV" lets ditz think he has a point worth making.
So what is the proper term, Redietz? Say your handicapping says team A is going to win by 3 but they're the dog at some book. Now there is a distribution of historical results. Using this you can estimate the odds of losing or winning the bet (presuming your handicapping is correct and historical data is fairly accurate). So there is a definitive calculated number that is very similar to the EV in purely numbers based gambling. So what do you call that Redietz? What is the term or word that is closer than EV?
So this post really has nothing to do with Red and everything to do with obsessing over Rob.Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
Cheers to you, "Captain".Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolf
From let's say 2001-2002 give or take a year until now can someone tell me when there have not been sports bonuses, sports promotions, off lines, arbitrage, etc? Sure, technically you might be right "promotions are not something APs can rely on being around forever" There's no handicapping method or AP situation that one can rely on forever that's why perhaps it's better to be a "jack of all, and master on none" when it comes to sports betting and AP.Quote:
Originally Posted by accountinquestionOnce again he is bringing up Billy Waters. Then he seems to think people are claiming they do better than Billy Waters. Redietz makes strawmen like no one else.Quote:
Originally Posted by smurgerburger
He finally get something right though, that promotions are not something APs can rely on being around forever. Still a strawman of sorts since people aren't claiming any promotion will be around forever. Nothing will. What a clown.
Who really knows since there are always outliers when you consider the best of the best in a particular area. I'm fairly certain no one on this forum is the best of the best or even close or ever will be(oops, I almost forgot about Zenking the GOAT).
Let's assume one isn't making a cut from their client's money. What percentage on average does a college football handicapper make?
How many games on average does he bet per year? What's the longest losing streak one can go on?
If that's all you got, then I'm golden. Fyi, I wasn't trying to be nasty it's just that a few of your posts keep leading back to Rob. You are never going to win your battle with Rob. Let's just say you had absolute proof that everything Rob ever said was complete BS. He will brag that he's been trolling you for 10 years or whatever and you fell for it. He will claim the king of the trolls and probably write a how-to book.Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJCheers to you, "Captain".Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolf
It doesn't take that much to figure out who is the scumbag around here.Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
Hypocrite doesn't begin to describe what a total disgrace you are.
That was kinda funny.Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
Yes, when you realize that he was referring to your "wife".Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolf
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r4AGdVt2Dfg
Can anyone show me proof of a handycapper that has years-long records(500-1000 bets min?) in sports who have made money off of pure handicapping?Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
I'll accept public records showing picks made prior to all games and the real line available. IE no BS lines that are basically impossible to get down on.
I have seen that move before where a tout claims to be getting down with 1/2-1 point better than what's actually available. Sure, that happens, but certainly not every game.
Oh, I didn't see her post quoted.Quote:
Originally Posted by coach bellyYes, when you realize that he was referring to your "wife".Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolf
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r4AGdVt2Dfg
That video is Very fitting since Captain Jack is actually a well-known and highly regarded sports bettor. I don't think I have ever tried Captain Jack I like Captian Morgans.
The beach vibe and Bikini actually reminds me of a cruise me and my Wife went on. She made that Bikini herself.
Yeah, we heard.Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolf
You must have been going through a rough patch to play the fool like that.
Nice...she makes her own clothes, just like the sister wives.Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolf
Not sure what that even means.Quote:
Originally Posted by coach bellyYeah, we heard.Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolf
You must have been going through a rough patch to play the fool like that.
Nice...she makes her own clothes, just like the sister wives.Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolf
She actually isn't a bad seamstress for being self-taught. It's not easy to design and make a perfectly fitting bikini to your taste from scratch, with no pattern or good examples. Chicks are usually really picky when it comes to their bikinis. Any little imperfections they notice and think everyone else will as well. It was only after searching store to store looking for the perfect bikini without success I suggested she make the perfect style and fitting one herself.
Back when she was taking some nursing classes she started making unique scrubs for herself. Her Mother, who was an RN asked her to make some for her. They caught on with the other nurses who were willing to pay for custom scrubs. She could crank them out fairly fast and inexpensively. I believe they were paying upward of $80 a pop depending on how custom they were.
I think she got bored of it, but she made a nice haul for the time she did it.
Walters had been out of prison for 8 months when Trump pardoned him. He was released after doing about 3 years of a 5 year sentence by prison officials because his age put him in the high risk category for covid. Once released he was never going back to prison whether Trump pardoned him or not.Quote:
Originally Posted by MisterV
BTW, The FBI had been after him for years. They stupidly thought his sportsbetting was bookmaking. They looked for anything to hang him on. Walters says it was a wrongful conviction and is pursuing litigation
He was on home confinement, when Trump pardoned him one year before his sentence would have ended.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
Gotta wonder whether Billy paid him in exchange?
Yu mean confined to his mansion? His time was just about up when Trump pardoned him.Quote:
Originally Posted by MisterVHe was on home confinement, when Trump pardoned him one year before his sentence would have ended.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
Gotta wonder whether Billy paid him in exchange?