Talking about baseball

When I saw a fan graph stating Brewers 15% chance to win the World series, I liked it and believed it. Just saw another fangraph stating the Brewers will finish the last 50 games 26-24, clearly hogwash with a small chance of being right. Right now, it's hard to believe the Brewers will even lose a game at all, so I would bet against the Brewers only having 94 wins end of season. A month ago they're saying 82 wins and a week or two ago 88.5. If they can get past the Braves with a sweep and take 2/3 from the Mets, success. The Mets have been playing badly lately and I expect failure against the Brewers.

Fangraphs and baseball reference says 15-17% odds of the Brewers winning the world series which translates to odds +450 to +525. When I see those odds I will intend to cash out a lot.

I missed out playing Bruce Turang's 2 homer game a few days ago and betting tonight he will get a HR. He is +1200, have made many profit boosts parlays with the over, the under and Milwaukee winning outright and by 2. It's a long shot by far.

Although we have interest in the same team, the Brewers, we have different interests. My wager is for them to win the division only.

So here is the way I look at that. Brewers are 3 games up on the Cubs. Brewers are the only team in baseball playing .600 ball for the season. I see no reason to believe that this fundamentally sound team is going to all of the sudden go in the tank and play .500 or below for the final 50 games. But lets say they only went 27-23 over that final 50 games. that would be .540 ball, a drop from what they have played all season. That means the Cubs would have to go 30-20 to catch them.

Is it possible the Cubs get hot and go 30-20. Sure. That is a .600 clip. But they haven't played .600 ball for the season. and if you look more recently they are 11-9 in last 20 games, 17-13 in last 30 games. That is .550 and .567 clip. So at no time, for the year or in recent games have they played .600. So I don't see any reason to believe they will now for the remainder of season. My analysis: Brewers to win the division.

Now when I apply the same metric to another division, where I have a wager, Toronto is ahead on Red Sox by the same 3 game. Toronto has played .579 baseball for the year. So lets say the same thing. suppose they go 27-23 over their final 50 games, which I think is reasonable for a .579 team. Now it is the Red Sox who would have to go 30-20 (.600 ball) to catch them. Are the Red Sox capable of playing .600 ball? Well for the year (which includes a very bad start) they have only played .553 baseball. But if you look more recently at the last 20 and 30 games, they are 14-6 in last 20 games, and 22-8 in last 30 games. That is .700 & .733 over those stretches. So I could see them going 30-20 (.600 ball) the rest of the way. My Analisis: Red Sox can catch Toronto.

I am trying to be objective. What do you think?

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

Although we have interest in the same team, the Brewers, we have different interests. My wager is for them to win the division only.

So here is the way I look at that. Brewers are 3 games up on the Cubs. Brewers are the only team in baseball playing .600 ball for the season. I see no reason to believe that this fundamentally sound team is going to all of the sudden go in the tank and play .500 or below for the final 50 games. But lets say they only went 27-23 over that final 50 games. that would be .540 ball, a drop from what they have played all season. That means the Cubs would have to go 30-20 to catch them.

Is it possible the Cubs get hot and go 30-20. Sure. That is a .600 clip. But they haven't played .600 ball for the season. and if you look more recently they are 11-9 in last 20 games, 17-13 in last 30 games. That is .550 and .567 clip. So at no time, for the year or in recent games have they played .600. So I don't see any reason to believe they will now for the remainder of season. My analysis: Brewers to win the division.

Now when I apply the same metric to another division, where I have a wager, Toronto is ahead on Red Sox by the same 3 game. Toronto has played .579 baseball for the year. So lets say the same thing. suppose they go 27-23 over their final 50 games, which I think is reasonable for a .579 team. Now it is the Red Sox who would have to go 30-20 (.600 ball) to catch them. Are the Red Sox capable of playing .600 ball? Well for the year (which includes a very bad start) they have only played .553 baseball. But if you look more recently at the last 20 and 30 games, they are 14-6 in last 20 games, and 22-8 in last 30 games. That is .700 & .733 over those stretches. So I could see them going 30-20 (.600 ball) the rest of the way. My Analisis: Red Sox can catch Toronto.

I am trying to be objective. What do you think?

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Quite reasonable and objective. When you bet on sports, you are competing about ideas with other people. In this case, the majority are pitted against us and have something to lose. It's natural for the team with the nest record in baseball to get push back, because betting odds dont support the Brewers like they should and will. Having still an unpopular opinion, I stress the heck out every day. I know someone well and they told me, they will watch me lose. He is a low level, low intelligence A, but it still bothers me. If the season started a week or two later, the Brewers would be like .720. Still I stress. What I expect is the Brewers to finish the last 50 near .600 if not closer to .700. Because it is so far from .520, I get scared. Mid August to early September is a time I cannot be under much stress, I'd hate being disappointed then having my heart broken and feeling depressed, so I allow myself to feel worry. They could win every day for a week from now and I'd probably still be scared if I dont get the reassurance money is following my bets.

So relief for today, the Brewers and Astros won handily. Tomorrow will be a challenge facing Strider for the Braves.

The Brewers are said to have 99.8% odds to make the playoffs. This made me remember the time of baseball right now where the season is getting closer to the end.soon teams will be eliminated or talked about clinching spots and the battles down the wire.

Im back to being optimistic. I believe my teams are going to heat up. They're shooting loaded dice but sometimes their advantage isn't materialized. The better your statistical average expected the better the results. Hopefully the Brewers are so good they always slump at a higher winning percentage. I think it explains their previous winning streak by going back on a winning streak again. Same fears persist, but slumps and regression are less pronounced.

Hopefully no jinx, I pick the Cubs today instead of Reds.

I noticed the odds fell to win the World Series Brewers to +1200. This is the validation I've been waiting for. My +4000 Brewrers bets now offer 1.9x initial bet as a cash out.

Usually you cannot move a line until the day of the game. Today I would want to take Milwaukee -1.5 and it is still not an option.

N9w if is possible.

I started betting the Brewers on July 9th. What Im wondering is what day did you buy your NL central division bets? What Im thinking is the division, number one seed, pennant, and world series are baked into the World Series bets. I'd like to compare my futures bought when you bought your division bets and see when the season is over if I would win just as much to cash out as your division bet to win. I think July 23rd or July 24th was when futures fell on ESPN app to +1500.

To express a 30% probability in American odds, you need to use the following formula for probabilities of 50% or less:
American Odds = (100 / Probability) - 100
In this case:
Probability = 30% = 0.30
Therefore,
American Odds = (100 / 0.30) - 100 = 333.33 - 100 = +233.33
Explanation of American odds
American odds are commonly used in sports betting in the United States. They are displayed with a plus (+) or minus (-) sign to indicate whether a team or outcome is a favorite or an underdog.
Negative odds (-) indicate the favorite. The number shows how much you need to bet to win $100. For example, -110 means you need to bet $110 to win $100.
Positive odds (+) indicate the underdog. The number shows how much you will win if you bet $100. For example, +200 means you will win $200 if you bet $100.
Therefore, a 30% probability, corresponding to +233.33 in American odds, indicates that the outcome is considered an underdog by the oddsmakers, meaning it is less likely to happen. If you were to place a bet, a $100 wager would potentially yield $233.33 in winnings.

Baseball reference says the Brewers odds of winning their pennant is 29%, so odds +700, 800, 900 are a steal.

I myself had bet the Brewers to win their division on July 23rd at +125 and it may have been the same on the 24th. I really should have spread this bet on Brewers amongst other casinos seeing better odds. It will cost me a lot of money not shopping for better lines. I was betting $400 +1400. I never looked at the machines at all to check lines when at a casino. Someone told me they had +2000 @ casinos so I added to my bet. I bought small tickets and so did my compares. I was so confident then I almost took out debt to buy a boatload more. I dont really have an exit plan for $27000 in wins. . There are no self pay kiosks.

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Originally Posted by MDawg

What we DO know about UNKewlJ is that he is just as much of a

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Originally Posted by MDawg

thieving lying low down no good varmint.

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in person as he is online.

His own family booted him from the familial household, what does that tell you?

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Originally Posted by MDawg

Is there anyone on these forums more universally despised than the UNKewl one? Doubtful.

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With the few baseball games done for the day, I am watching a few minutes of the Raiders on local (over the air) TV here in Vegas. It is local Fox channel here. they claim they air all the Athletic games as well. Who knew? :confused:

One of the things that annoys me is that with my MLB subscription, all 5 California teams + Arizona are blacked out. And now it turns out I could have watched the A's all season. And I actually like watching and betting on the A's and the kid "Big Amish".

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

You're definitely someone who isn't adverse to lying on forums if it suits you to do so.

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Hopefully for my sake, Milwaukee and Philadelphia take the top 2 seeds. It is within the reach of Philadelphia to do so. I keep forgetting what a difference Max Muncy can make though and the Dodgers schedule. The schedule is easy, but many tough losable games left ans the Dodgers havent really showed themselves to have warmed up in August and September yet. We'll see if this weekend series of Mets @ Brewers starts the final slide to take the Mets out of the playoffs, so this is why it will probably need to be Philadelphia to get hot and stay hot.

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

With the few baseball games done for the day, I am watching a few minutes of the Raiders on local (over the air) TV here in Vegas. It is local Fox channel here. they claim they air all the Athletic games as well. Who knew? :confused:

One of the things that annoys me is that with my MLB subscription, all 5 California teams + Arizona are blacked out. And now it turns out I could have watched the A's all season. And I actually like watching and betting on the A's and the kid "Big Amish".

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This usually does suck thinking you'll be able to see an important game, but you can't.

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

With the few baseball games done for the day, I am watching a few minutes of the Raiders on local (over the air) TV here in Vegas. It is local Fox channel here. they claim they air all the Athletic games as well. Who knew? :confused:

One of the things that annoys me is that with my MLB subscription, all 5 California teams + Arizona are blacked out. And now it turns out I could have watched the A's all season. And I actually like watching and betting on the A's and the kid "Big Amish".

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This usually does suck thinking you'll be able to see an important game, but you can't. The A's have exceeded my expectations, but I dont like watching them because no playoff potential.

A Brice Turang HR won me $550, would have liked a single extra run to hit a $2300 parlay including this home run but they failed. Astros beat the Yankees in top of 10th 5-3, so that was good. I keep hoping they shape back up soon. I must admit the Dodgers have been looking better lately, I have expected more from Toronto.

The shocker to me is the Cubs are now 5 games back of the Brewers and still fading. They have that 5 game series coming up in 10 days, but the Cubs might be 7-8 games back by then. They might need to sweep just to stay within shouting distance. And the Brewers haven't lost more than 2 games in a row in 10 weeks (which in itself is astonishing). What are the chances they will go to Chicago and lose 5 straight, or even 4 of 5? The Cubs fall has been mostly Pete Crow-Armstrong. For 3 months he looked like an MVP candidate. The last month, he looks like a guy that should be sent to the minors. He really is neither.

Yankees are really fading fast. 6.5 games back of Toronto now. Red Sox have pulled to within 3 of Toronto. I have such good odds with Boston, if it were only a two-team race, I could now hedge and make a good profit. But I can't risk that as long as the Yankees are within striking distance of winning the division. I don't really think they are, but can't risk it until they fall a few more games back.

My Phillies division bet (these are all win the division bets) is looking good. Mets, like the Yankees are fading right now. I could hedge and make decent guaranteed money right now, but don't think I need to right now. Maybe if the Mets start to show signs of life.

My one division bet that is showing no life right now is the Texas Rangers. That was an impulse wager when they were winning and scoring a lot of runs. I should have done a deeper analysis.

But all told, I am pretty sure I am going to make money on these 4 futures wagers. Maybe some big money. And the best part, is I will be playing through rollover requirements. If I broke even it would be a win, but I should make good money on top. The past couple months of baseball season have been really good to me, which is good because I was having kind of a down year sports betting prior to that.

Oh and the worst managerial decision of the day: Tampa Bay leading at Seattle 2-0 in bottom of 8th inning. Runners at 1st and second, 2 outs. Cal Raileigh at bat. That would be baseball homerun leader Cal Raileigh. I don't know if I would have intentionally walked the guy, but I certainly wouldn't have thrown anything near the plate. If he wants to swing....make him reach for something out of the strike zone that he can't hit out of the park. If he singles or walks, I will take my chances with Julio Rodriquez.

Of course, what they did was give Cal R a pitch to hit and hit it he did. 3 run homer. Game lost.

I was going to bet a Raleigh HR late but passed. Very much agreed on your division picks and thoughts. I'd like to know what broke with the Mets.

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Originally Posted by theywontpayontuesday

I'd like to know what broke with the Mets.

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The Mets are the streakiest team I have seen. here are some streaks for this season:

April 2 - April 8, 6 straight wins
April 17- April 23, 7 straight wins
May 24 - June 2, 8 wins, 1 loss (8 of 9)
June 6 - June 12, 6 straight wins
June 13 - june 20, 7 straight losses
July 20 - July 27, 7 straight wins
Current 1 win 9 losses

And some of these streaks a good win streak directly preceded 7 or 8 straight losses. :confused:

Makes no sense. they will probably reel off 6-7 in a row next week. the Mets streakiness is why the division lead with the Phillies has flip flopped so many times.

But it now appears the Mets starting pitching is fairly weak. At the trade deadline they bolstered their relief pitching because they knew they can only get 4-5 innings from the starters. I think that is a recipe for disaster. Will over work the relievers.

I like my Phillies division wager, now that they acquired a closer, but if the Mets show signs of life again, I will hedge and guaranteed a win.

Odds this morning were Mets +300 and they were only 2.5 games back. They are now 3.5 back. Updated odds tomorrow will probably be +350 or more. At those odds I can hedge on the Mets and still make a ton of money, because I bought the Phillies when they were 3.5 and again at 5 games back.

Woke up this am to see the Brewers only +1000 to win the World Series. At the same time, the Astros are only +1400 so all my Houston bets are bad now. My +4000 Brewers world series winner bets have cash outs of 215%of bet but Astros +1000s worth 33% and +1200s worth 52%. So some good and some bad. Overall my futures are just barely better off than never buying them. They're all completely worthless if teams get eliminated, my choices then will be hard.

I wouldn't waste any money on the Mets but I can understand your hedge. It's so easy to assume the Mets will lose their next 2 against Milwaukee.

Oh yeah I wish I bet more on the Brewers best record in baseball +4000, my cash out option is over 10x my bet. When I had had the opportunity to bet them +1800, I felt it was too risky and never bet it more and instead decided to bet them more to win the pennant. If this sticks, and Schwarber overtakes the HR lead, I would imagine I would feel pretty good at the end of season. Yeah I didnt think I'd like baseball and now Ill miss it.

Im thinking I will hold all bets until the first round of playoffs are over, but idk yet. By my determination, Brewers should be +475 world series and +230 pennant. When those marks are hit, I will be triggered to take money off the table.

I have been betting Kyle Schwarber for NL MVP +650 about $200 after my initial small bet on him +400. The odds changed in the same day, I feel it's not a complete waste of money at least. The downside, isn't announced until season over. At that point it will either be icing on the cake or my only hope if I hold all these bets into the toilet.

I've changed my mind and I think betting against the Mets making the playoffs is a good bet at +400.

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Originally Posted by theywontpayontuesday

I've changed my mind and I think betting against the Mets making the playoffs is a good bet at +400.

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Oh the Mets will make the playoffs. For them to not make the playoffs, either Miami, SF, StL or Cinncinati would have to overtake them and none of them are playoff teams. I guess of the 4 the Reds are the closest to a playoff team in my mind.

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Originally Posted by theywontpayontuesday

I have been betting Kyle Schwarber for NL MVP +650 about $200 after my initial small bet on him +400. The odds changed in the same day, I feel it's not a complete waste of money at least. The downside, isn't announced until season over. At that point it will either be icing on the cake or my only hope if I hold all these bets into the toilet.

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I haven't given much thought to betting on individual awards like MLP and cy young. My criteria is a little different than some of the sports writers (that is who votes right?) I would want the MVP to not just have great numbers but to have actually lead his team to the division and/or playoffs. I don't want some dude with good numbers on a losing team. Schwarber certainly qualifies. As does Ohtani. But in the AL, I am not sure Judge qualifies (for me) anymore. They hold the last wildcard spot and probably will be overtaken by Cleveland shortly and knocked out of the playoffs.

I hold the same criteria for Cy Young. I know Skenes is the favorite right now. Great pitcher. Going to be in the conversation for years to come. But he currently has a losing record. I know some of that is very little run support, but I can't get on board with a cy young winner with a losing record on a team 20 games back in their division and 15 games back of the Wildcard. You gotta lead your team to something.

Looking at a list of Cy young winners, in my lifetime, I don't see many with losing records. A few relievers with 2-3 records, but a shit load of saves. I just don't see any starters with losing records. Now a little before my lifetime, I see Steve Carlton (who is legend among my older Philly friends). 27-10 on a team that won only 59 games. That is incredible. Doesn't meet my criteria of needing to lead your team to playoffs, but damn...would be hard not to vote for 27-10 on a team that wins 59. :D

If I had a lot of extra gambling money, I would make a nice bet against the Mets. The bet is not only against them in a downward spiral, but also on someone just winning their spot with unexceptional results. The only problem with the bets is it should have been obvious earlier but I didnt see it until it already revealed itself. I like the bet, I dont love it and can he happy either way. They had a players only meeting but unlikely to change anything.

I blame a lot of Mets problems on Soto. His numbers don't look horrible at .250 average, 27 HR and 65 RBI, but he comes up way short in the clutch with runners in scoring position. Last year with Yankees he batted about .350 with runners in scoring position. Last I looked he is about half that with the Mets, somewhere around .175

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

I blame a lot of Mets problems on Soto. His numbers don't look horrible at .250 average, 27 HR and 65 RBI, but he comes up way short in the clutch with runners in scoring position. Last year with Yankees he batted about .350 with runners in scoring position. Last I looked he is about half that with the Mets, somewhere around .175

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Boomers Esiason chewed him out I read. You know it's probably something possible to happen, but +400 isn't sexy enough based on the risk. Raleigh and Otahlni both homered today and the Dodgers definitely made the Blue Jays look like a non contender against them even though they actually are. Are two lopsided victories enough to judge a future outcome, no but sometimes it can feel like enough evidence. It's enough to scare me thinking about them playing again( Dodgers and Brewers). It will be pertinent for me to at least watch their games at least once to look for clues about how l feel and what to think about. Im trying to think of a cashout strategy I have not figured out. I want to hold out for the division series. I think in my head I overestimated my payouts in a long time and the Astros seem trashy waiting for Paredes to rehab. There must be pitching coming back I hope soon because I get worried with Jason Alexander. My World Series picks are hard to imagine if LA dominates. I need to see trash make them look badly too often. They're earning their way through this season for sure. Their current win streak they are on is important because the length can be used to show strength after a previous winning streak. The goal would be one streak of 11 games and another the same or longer, then it demonstrates raw ability to win any game.The Mets did bomb a few but all solos, maybe tomorrow isn't so certain when they let base runners before.

Notice the Yankees and Mets are both being recognized for their lack of superiority. Yankees to make the playoffs -375, Yankees to miss the playoffs +250. The Mets to make the playoffs -400, the Mets to miss the playoffs +260. So the odds are near 80%/20% for both.

Bet $1000 when the Brewers were down 2-0 +185. They're down 6-3 now, still plenty of game left.

https://youtu.be/sTJ1XwGDcA4?si=8ecFoJeSwPnWRjsM

7-6 walk off HR for Isaac Collins. I cash 3k.

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Originally Posted by theywontpayontuesday

7-6 walk off HR for Isaac Collins. I cash 3k.

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Congrats. Good call. I considered making a similar live bet a couple times including when it was 5-0, but I just don't really make those kind of longshot wagers, even though the entire game had a feel like the Mets would find a way to blow it. AND THEY DID!

Right smack in the middle of a division and playoff race and the Mets have completely collapsed, losing 7 in a row and 11 of 12, including blowing a 5 run lead. Somebody should be fired. I guess you can't since they are still hanging on to the last wild card spot, but their manager just looks lost. Like he has no clue.

Tough times in the big Apple as the Yankees are in nearly identical situation, having blown the division lead and now barely hanging on to the final wildcard spot. Aaron Boone at least pretended to be outraged at a balls/strike call, and got tossed, hoping to fire up his team. It didn't work. :D

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

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Originally Posted by theywontpayontuesday

7-6 walk off HR for Isaac Collins. I cash 3k.

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Congrats. Good call. I considered making a similar live bet a couple times including when it was 5-0, but I just don't really make those kind of longshot wagers, even though the entire game had a feel like the Mets would find a way to blow it. AND THEY DID!

Right smack in the middle of a division and playoff race and the Mets have completely collapsed, losing 7 in a row and 11 of 12, including blowing a 5 run lead. Somebody should be fired. I guess you can't since they are still hanging on to the last wild card spot, but their manager just looks lost. Like he has no clue.

Tough times in the big Apple as the Yankees are in nearly identical situation, having blown the division lead and now barely hanging on to the final wildcard spot. Aaron Boone at least pretended to be outraged at a balls/strike call, and got tossed, hoping to fire up his team. It didn't work. :D

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Yeah they're that good, .612 against >.500 teams, which is better than any team in baseball against everybody, champ and sucker. I had egg ready on my face, my unbelievers thought they had had me. I told them you have never won money in your life and have never been successful as a gambler, so dont tell me you know before the game the Brewers would lose because you claim pregame they were +115. It did turn out to be a reason to lack confidence I didnt know about, Yellich and Turang didnt start. Turang came in late to play and Yellich took the day off. Hats off to Contreras, he definitely plays well like a World Series champ. I'm betting big tomorrow too, regardless of the payout, Ill bet anything -250 or longer all year. Imo they're actually a .700 team, so there is where the line comes from I shouldn't bet.

Bet $350 on the Cubs tonight, $100 -1.5. I should only bet the Brewers for now, but at least Im not eating my own asshole like Mdawg.

Im also glad the Dodgers lost. It's key for them to fail to get a seed. All this just warming up in August and September crap, like it's the GD gospels. Bs.

Balls to the wall, I'll have between $1500 and $2000 on tonight's Brewers game. I've also meekly bet the Phillies(-140) on the road to win their series against the Reds at home and the Astros(-130) to win their series at home against Boston. I might start betting the Astros daily as I think they're getting it together.

Im in just about the same spot. I've lost on all my parlays and the Cubs last night. Can't win when you bet against some teams sometimes. Now Im betting the Astros and rhe Phillies daily too. Something feels wrong but I dont know what, probably me betting too much for all ships to fail at once.

I put another $100 on Schwarber +1500 MVP. If the Dodgers don't get a number one seed and the Phillies get the number 2 seed, then it's Schwarber and not Ohtani. With all the talent around Ohtani and if they dont get a seed, his fault for missing a few home runs and RBIs. Im only betting $1000 today on the Brewers and $500 the next day if they lose. Im blindly betting on Philadelphia and Houston now and the over 8.5 Houston.

Brewers $1000 -125
Phillies $200 -160
Astros $250 -120
Astros over 8.5 $250 -105.
Schwarber MVP $100 +1500(was +1800)

It's fun hating the Cubs and Dodgers. Wish I could win money playing them either way.

Oh wait hats off to Ohtani, he solo homered to bring the Dodgers to 1-7 against the severely autistic Angels in the top of the 8th. None of the teams wanted their players and they have little to show for it. Trout is such a disappointment, might as well be bass or canolies.

It's fun hating the Cubs and Dodgers. Wish I could win money playing them either way. Brewers pennant winner only +450 now. Mdawg only eating his own asshole and loving it.

Oh wait hats off to Ohtani, he solo homered to bring the Dodgers to 1-7 against the severely autistic Angels. Muncy homered and the Dodgers lost 7-4 instead of 7-0 or 1.

Brewers $1000 -125
Phillies $200 -160
Astros $250 -120
Astros over 8.5 $250 -105.
Schwarber MVP $100 +1500(was +1800)

The Brewers came down to +900 to win the World Series and the Astros +1200. My +4000s are now offering a cash outs of 300%+ now. If the Brewers keep winning, I won't need to worry about anything. They might not lose 3 games in a row this year, let alone during the playoffs. The Miz and Chourio will be back playing soon, so watch out.

So interesting regarding strength of schedule for the remaining games:
#24 Seattle
#25 Detroit
#26 Houston
#27 NYY
#28 Chicago Cubs
#29 San Diego
#30 LA Dodgers

I'd guess these teams themselves are the reason they have such easy schedules because they have reduced these teams already by beating them.

Im betting DD will post a Pirates bet today. Can't blame anyone for it. It's getting quite literally hard to imagine a scenario the Brewers lose before a game is played.

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Originally Posted by theywontpayontuesday

Im betting DD will post a Pirates bet today. Can't blame anyone for it. It's getting quite literally hard to imagine a scenario the Brewers lose before a game is played.

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This is a VERY interesting game. It is kind of a free roll for Skenes. If he shuts down the best team in baseball , on the road and beats them, it will almost guarantee him the Cy Young for which he is currently the favorite. It would raise his record to 8-8 which would also shut down all those people like me, that say, you can't give the Cy Young to a pitcher with a losing record, even if he is on a bad team.

But if he loses, as long as he doesn't get rocked, no one is going to hold it against his that he lost to the best team in their park. Oh and on top of that, he is going against the Brewers best pitcher.

I am not betting the game. I think the brewers may get to him for a couple runs, and even if he goes 6 or 7 inning, they still would have an inning or two against a bd Pirates bullpen.

I am just going to watch this one, with no bet.

Last gasp for the Mets. At the trade deadline the Phillies and Mets were see-sawing back and forth in first place. Phillies are 8-2 since the deadline, the Mets 1-8. There has been absolutely zero response from the Mets in fighting for the division.

Now they are in the last playoff spot and have 2 teams Cincinnati and believe it of not, The ST Louis Cardinals, breathing down their necks. Lets see if the have any fight left in them, or if they have just given up.

I have a little bet on the Braves tonight, betting the Mets have nothing left.

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

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Originally Posted by theywontpayontuesday

Im betting DD will post a Pirates bet today. Can't blame anyone for it. It's getting quite literally hard to imagine a scenario the Brewers lose before a game is played.

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This is a VERY interesting game. It is kind of a free roll for Skenes. If he shuts down the best team in baseball , on the road and beats them, it will almost guarantee him the Cy Young for which he is currently the favorite. It would raise his record to 8-8 which would also shut down all those people like me, that say, you can't give the Cy Young to a pitcher with a losing record, even if he is on a bad team.

But if he loses, as long as he doesn't get rocked, no one is going to hold it against his that he lost to the best team in their park. Oh and on top of that, he is going against the Brewers best pitcher.

I am not betting the game. I think the brewers may get to him for a couple runs, and even if he goes 6 or 7 inning, they still would have an inning or two against a bd Pirates bullpen.

I am just going to watch this one, with no bet.

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Agreed. I would be happy thinking if the Brewers can score a lot on him, they could beat anyone including Tarik Skubal. It just doesnt really matter though because a regular season game doesnt mean you'll win again in the playoffs. If the Brewers get like 6 runs against him however, the bets I have will look like gold and good bets will be just a little less good.

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

Last gasp for the Mets. At the trade deadline the Phillies and Mets were see-sawing back and forth in first place. Phillies are 8-2 since the deadline, the Mets 1-8. There has been absolutely zero response from the Mets in fighting for the division.

Now they are in the last playoff spot and have 2 teams Cincinnati and believe it of not, The ST Louis Cardinals, breathing down their necks. Lets see if the have any fight left in them, or if they have just given up.

I have a little bet on the Braves tonight, betting the Mets have nothing left.

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Yeah I had them over Cleveland recently and they couldnt pull the trigger with the bases loaded and had to go lose the game in extra innings. Ill never respect them in 2025.

The problem is Soto and you have to dig a little to see the real problem because his numbers look ok on the surface. But he is batting around .170 with runners in scoring position. THAT is when you need the big hit. Hitting a solo Homerun when they are up of down by 4 runs means nothing.

The line has moved to Brewers -145. If they remain on a winning streak, it will be 20 after the Brewers are through with the Cubs. 5/5 or 10/10 very improbable. It sure would be sweet. So the funny thing everyone believed the Brewers may not make the playoffs when the season started, but then they made some low-key trades and soon everyone will be thinking they will be getting it all. From a team that can't win, to a team that can't lose. They have a great organization, if they had Yankee money, they would win every year. I dont know how much money a World Series brings the teams, they have already had more fans come than anyone else in baseball. Think about how well the Milwaukee economy will do if the Brewers win, they're all betting Brewers and they just keep winning. There just have to be so many people that could have so much extra money just from regular season games and futures bets. If I hold every ticket, Im personally winning over $100,000 if the Brewers win it all, it's a lot of money. Even more if it isn't the Yankees or Detroit representing the American league and is Houston, Toronto or Boston or Seattle as I've parlayed them with Milwaukee to win pennant. I have not bet enough on Seattle. Has to be the team I asked early on a local bettor who he liked and he said Seattle. Of course I didnt see what he saw because I thought they werent winning the division and maybe no playoffs.

....

I didn't see the Milwaukee blow out coming. I thought they might score some runs off Skenes and win, but not 14-0. Most of those runs were scored after he was gone, but they did score at least 4 off him and knocked him out fairly early.

The Brewers seem unstoppable right now. Still 6 and a half weeks left and they will probably cool off some at some point, but right now it doesn't look like their is a pitcher alive that can hold them down.

Dodgers lost and fell into a tie with Padres. Odds still have Dodgers as a huge favorite to win the division. The kind of number you would expect to see for a team ahead by 3-4 games, not tie. I guess linemakers and bettors don't believe Padres are for real. Or maybe they just can't except that the Dodgers aren't as great as they think. They are a good hitting team, with mediocre starting pitching.

Mets and Yankees woke up from their slumbers. Lets see how long it lasts. Cubs continued in theirs.

I am starting to have a little bit of concern with Phils starting pitchers. Ranger Suarez is clearly getting hit harder as the season goes on. Zack Wheeler has also not been sharp his last 3 or 4 starts. he won a couple of them, but was not as dominate as earlier. Phillies even pushed his most recent start back a couple days to give him extra rest.

I was very hesitant to bet today based on those odds, so I did bet small and bet even more for the Brewers to win by 2, 3 and 5.

Just another day at batting practice for the Brewers. Was so much happier when it was 6-0 of course over 6-3. Hopefully the Brewers will start slamming hits again.

Congrats. again. It seems like the Brewers can throw up 10+ runs any game they want right now.

I had the Cardinals, who are fighting for a playoff spot (supposedly) over the bad Colorado Rockies and their terrible pitcher Gomber. Cards took a 5-4 into the ninth, when their closer gave up a two run homer to lose. After the game, the Cardinal announcer said "Cardinals played a great first 8 innings. Unfortunately baseball games are 9 innings". Gee, thanks for the you fucking genius. :rolleyes:

Yeah baby another day of batting practice against the Pittsburgh Pirates. The bad news is this winning streak has significantly reduced playoff odds to World Series +750 and pennant +350, where I had stated +500 and +230 to be true odds based on baseball reference/fan graphs.

I took the bait too late and bet San Diego +190 only a few hundred.

Tonight I took the Braves +170 $100, Astros $300 -155, Phillies $250 -125, and Angels +165 $100(against Ohtani pitching).

Betting too much on the Braves against the Mets and Angels against the Dodgers, giving me a good laugh. It appears any amount was too much since KJ declared rightfully so the Mets offense was back. Somehow I was hoping for a surprise these scores right now dodgers 3-0 with one out and Mets up 6-0.

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Originally Posted by theywontpayontuesday

Betting too much on the Braves against the Mets and Angels against the Dodgers, giving me a good laugh. It appears any amount was too much since KJ declared rightfully so the Mets offense was back. Somehow I was hoping for a surprise these scores right now dodgers 3-0 with one out and Mets up 6-0.

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Mets offense WAS back....for 2 innings. 6-0 lead and then a monumental collapse in the 4th giving up 9 runs. I think Tuesdays win was a mirage. This Mets team looks like a team that has no fight left in them to me.

Similar situation in the Bronx. Yanks showed signs of life yesterday and then came out and laid a dud against a bad team. Some unhappy New York fans at both venues. And they sat through 2 hour rain delays at both stadiums to see those clunkers.

Dodgers are now 1 back of San Diego. Dodgers do not look good. Announcers keep saying not to worry, that they will turn it on. Dodgers and Padres play 3 games this weekend and 3 more next weekend. If Dodgers don't get it together soon, they just might find themselves playing in the wildcard round.

Milwaukee...what can you say about this team right now. they are a juggernaut. They probably wish the playoffs started tomorrow instead of 6 and a half weeks away.

Two nights in a row I bet the Angels and had to just go to sleep, hoping to awake to a win and I did. The Angels will not make the playoffs but I will win a few bets regarding season wins over 71.5 and 72.5. They're close to $1000 in total so not insignificant. Brewers are +750, +350, so starting to feel like a buy high situation even if it really isn't. I have looked at the lines and matchups for today and haven't liked anything yet. Im feeling pretty good though.

I bet $150 Brewers season wins over 99.5 even money. It was a little difficult to actually bet. I assume over 100 wins, but it's not necessary and not guaranteed of course. With these odds losing the sexiness, Im more into win for today than much later because I have actually bet too much for the playoffs. It's worth it, wish I had bet more, but slot AP has been terrible to say the least. It's barely conceivable slot AP isn't dead when compared to other options. Live by the sword die by the sword to some degree, but we all need to tighten up now and choose wisely.

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Originally Posted by theywontpayontuesday

Two nights in a row I bet the Angels and had to just go to sleep, hoping to awake to a win and I did. The Angels will not make the playoffs but I will win a few bets regarding season wins over 71.5 and 72.5. They're close to $1000 in total so not insignificant. Brewers are +750, +350, so starting to feel like a buy high situation even if it really isn't. I have looked at the lines and matchups for today and haven't liked anything yet. Im feeling pretty good though.

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Well and 30 minutes later, I have bet on every game but Colorado vs Arizona for which I'll probably bet Colorado:

Orioles $125 +110
Blue Jays $100 -105
Guardians $125 -125
Phillies $200 -200
Braves $100 +160
Tigers $420 -205

I also maxed out Kyle Schwarber NL MVP $300 +1800. Ohtani isn't justified right now @ -15,000. Im also betting on him and Harper to hit HRs today. Hopefully Luzardo isn't a Luzar again today. It still stings him costing me thousands with the 5-0 lead over Boston. I would have taken that and bet Milwaukee pennant +900 or whatever high number it was then. Schwarber needs to start getting more HRs and RBIs to justify this bet still.

.......

The Phillies are not scoring this week and trying to keep the Mets in the race. BUT the Mets just refuse to win. They find different ways to lose EVERYDAY!

The Mets and the other New York team, the Yankers have fallen so far, both are 1/2 game from falling out of the playoffs altogether.

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

The Phillies are not scoring this week and trying to keep the Mets in the race. BUT the Mets just refuse to win. They find different ways to lose EVERYDAY!

The Mets and the other New York team, the Yankers have fallen so far, both are 1/2 game from falling out of the playoffs altogether.

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The Mets are like the Brewers of losing. I'm going to try to bet against them often. I had a lot on Detroit and was lucky the game finished under with Detroit. The game seemed very biased in Detroit's favor. I'll be afraid to bet against them at this point in close games.

Won most of my bets but lost disproportionately with Philies. Im wondering what the line will be with the Brewers but Im probably betting big. The Reds are a test they will probably pass. The Brewers will not be playing around, and will be throwing all they have at it.

we are getting into an interesting period betting wise. For me the Hot weather OVERS period is done, as weather is not super hot all across the country. There may be spot places that weather is warm and wind blowing out that are good over bets, but it isn't like it was for about 6 weeks from late June until early August.

Absent that angle, you have team, chasing a division or wild card that are starting to choke and play tight. And you have teams that are out of it that can and are playing loose. So the team that looks like the better team, may not be the better bet. But you also have teams that are out of it that just seem to be going through the motions, so you don't want to bet them. You have to figure out which teams that are out of it are trying or just going through the motions. You can kind of spot it after watching a couple games.

I am sure the Mets are trying to win. They are just bad. Especially starting pitching. Starting pitching is ranked in the high 20's (out of 30 teams) in just about every category. they are bad. I find it amazing that knowing this, the Mets chose to bolster their bullpen at the trade deadline instead of going after a starter or two. It is like they said, well if our starters can only go 3-4 innings, we need more bullpen guys. kind of backwards thinking to me.

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Originally Posted by accountinquestion

I'm a believer in psych-meds. I wish we could pass around a hat for KewlJ to go get checked out and look at being medicated.

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When push came to shove, I hemmed and I hawed, I decided to not bet any more, then I bet more than I had been contemplating, I had bet another $400 even money. I bet the Brewers would win 100 games. It means going .570 the rest of season.

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Originally Posted by theywontpayontuesday

I bet the Brewers would win 100 games. It means going .570 the rest of season.

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The thing I would be concerned about is do they start resting a lot of players? I mean the Brewers are up 8 on the cubs for their division. As you know they play 5 games next week in Chicago. At 8 games back now, the Cubs must win 4 of 5 just to stay within shouting distance. They really need to sweep the 5 games to get back in the race. So if the brewers win even 2 of the 5, they come out of there with a 7 game lead with 5 and a half weeks remaining at that point. That race would be over.

At that point all they really have to play for is the number 1 seed in the NL. They currently lead the Padres and Phillies both by 7.5 games for that. So the Brewers could have number 1 seed locked up by early to Mid September. What then? what do they have to play for? Do they start resting players?