Okay Mendelsome. lol Let's me know if/when and I will give it a shot.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
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Okay Mendelsome. lol Let's me know if/when and I will give it a shot.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Go ahead and give it a shot and if it's not exactly the same as the interpretation given by Half Smoke or Coach or redietz or even Rob Singer then you have proven my point and only kewlj can explain it.Quote:
Originally Posted by MosesOkay Mendelsome. lol Let's me know if/when and I will give it a shot.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Go ahead Moses. What is YOUR interpretation?
Alan. My plan is to play the same way and the same game for 20 sessions per week. Certain things put me in the seat and multitude of items will force me to leave my seat. All in all, it works out to 20 sessions which is in my complete control. It works out to 1200 to 1500 hands per week in general. I focus more on the quality than the quantity of hands played as opposed to profit/loss per session. That would like playing basketball and making sure the scorer gave me credit when I score a basket. I don't need/want that in my head. I KNOW that at the end of the week, if I've played my game to the best of my ability then I will be victorious. I think there were two losing months in the last 3 years as I employed the HIA method for whatever reason. My EV doesn't really need to accumulated all that much as my expenses are low to nil. So it goes to the regular bills (like taxes) remodel, and/or a trip. No, I don't play blackjack away from home. I'm on vacation.
In sports, I've reviewed every single pro game for the last 7 years and then update at the end of each year. MLB for example, I know I will play about 30 games a season and the bulk of the games will come in June and July before the oddmakers have set lines out of reach. There is fluctuation from month to month but I know the end result has proven to be profitable by seasons end.
I'm certain I don't have the wild swings of KJ. I can't prove my rewards to you Alan unless you'd like to come see my hardwood floors. Stating income would be detrimental to my cause and no one sees my portfolio. Except maybe Sing Sing. He is tricky. :eek: I will say this is sort of like being on scholarship. All I have to do is play well and not get kicked off the team. Most everything else is paid for, except I live off campus.
Great Moses but what you wrote has nothing to do with kewlj's "accumulating EV."
Next person willing to offer a guess?
What are you waiting for?...go see his hardwood floors.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Expected value and actual results run parallel to one another. If I am going to average 80k in actual results as I have for the last 4 years, my accumulated EV for those years will also average pretty close to that amount. In the longterm, you can't win xxx amount of money without accumulating xxx amount of EV. It is that simple!
In the short run the two measurements will fluctuate. (actually it is actual results that fluctuate....EV climbs steadily). But in the long run the two will and must be pretty close. You just can't win significant money without significant play and accumulating significant EV.
As a degenerate gambler, Alan, you focus on short-term results. But short-term results are meaningless. AP's focus on a longer run....longer term results, because that is what matters, not some short-term swing of a day or two. And that is what accumulated EV is...a way to measure where you are really at and where your actual results will be in the longterm.
And that day, back in the first week of January was a good day, because I found and played good games, got in significant rounds and built a good amount of daily EV. The actual results for that day or any short term period are just insignificant. It is just fluctuation or variance. And that works both ways. Had I won $20,000 that day, in the long run that day was only worth whatever EV I generated.
But Alan, you won't understand this explanation any more than the first because you don't think like an AP (longterm), you think like a degenerate gambler, because that is what you are I am afraid.
Here is one for you Alan. This year 2018, I am experiencing my best blackjack results ever so far. More than 50% increase of what my annual average is. And guess what, my accumulated EV is also significant higher than usual. The reason: I have played significantly more this year after my partner passed, putting in more time and this results in accumulating more EV and guess what....longterm, results will match that increase in accumulated EV....and they have. :cool: Are you beginning to see how this works? EV and actual results work in tandem in the longterm. Sure, short term, they will fluctuate as my results did that single day you continue to harp on, but longterm, they work in tandem. You can't have significant winnings without accumulating significant EV.
Now, Alan, if you can't, won't or don't understand this concept then I don't know what to tell you, other than it is beyond my ability to explain it to you....maybe someone else can get through to you but I doubt it because I believe you don't want to understand, so you simply won't understand.
Typical of you kew. You wasted half of that doing something having nothing to do with the requested response by calling Alan a degenerate gambler. When somebody's in the midst of making up a story, that's exactly what they do.
All your tap dancing around did not hide how you claim to believe you "were due", and you should know that's precisely how degenerate gamblers see things after a loss.
Finally, do you really think anyone's impressed or surprised with your "$80k/yr. claim? Even mickey came up with a bigger number than that.
Is it any wonder why you remain an anonymous coward?
Actually Singer we agree on this. No clue why KJ feels he has to answer Alan or anyone else.Quote:
Originally Posted by Rob.Singer
For some reason he feels he has to defend himself against a lifetime loser like Alan. It makes no sense in any world.
It’s like he is addicted to these forums and takes what the lunatics on thes3 places say about him.
No defending this KJ, but you can try. As one who believes you have made what you said you have, I don’t get it.
Alan is a career loser, you are a career winner.
In less than 100 words tell me why 2 bullshit artists like Alan & Singer bother you so much?
What the fuck Boz? I wasn't defending myself. Alan asked for an explanation so I tried to use actual numbers as an example, hoping he might understand. I mean accumulated EV is directly related to actual results. That is the whole point! so I used actual results as an example.Quote:
Originally Posted by The Boz
Alan does not bother me. I know he is trolling. Have known it since like my second day here. I answer some of these things and explain some of these stupid Alan troll questions, in the hopes that other people reading might find it beneficial. It is not really for Alan's benefit, as I am well aware he is playing his troll games.
As for Singer, he only bothers me because he is misleading players with his fraud. There may very well be lurker types reading that are sucked in by his scam and I don't like that.
Kewl-here is what I don't understand. Keeping track of EV does what for you? Do you alter your play in some way based upon changes in your EV? Do you alter your play in some way based upon your actual results? Or do you just know that you have whatever "edge" and keep playing? How does the accumulated EV effect what you do?
Kew, how about answering the above questions without all the deflections. And you really don't care about who reads what I say about my ability to win at vp here. All you care about is building up your self-perceived reputation in front of a crowd of similar anonymous tap dancers. It terrifies you to death to have thoughts of this forum closing down or anyone anywhere believing you're full of it from the get-go.Quote:
Originally Posted by regnis
No AP has ever said you can bank EV for a later day. This is your fucking troll, Dunce Mendelson. You are a fucking liar. Dunce "the troll" Mendelfucktard. You're a fucking troll, period.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
KJ like many APs is measuring EV like how a company measures projected sales. If you know it takes 4 sales leads to generate 1 sale and 1 sale is worth $1000 in net profit then you have a tool to use. KJ might know that 1000 hands of blackjack at an average bet of $100 with his method of play is worth $1500 in net profit (expected value).
KJ wants to generate 6k in profit for his efforts next month. Therefore, he knows that he has to play 4000 hands next month. He can't get all that action down in one spot so he has to develop a schedule to get in the action required for the results desired. Due to changing circumstances from place to place he needs to track accumulated EV to make sure he is on track to meet his goals. So it is basically like a sales manger tracking lead generation and adjusting marketing to get leads needed to make sales goals.
Also KJ is able to detect if he is being cheated just like a sales manager knows he has a defective salesman. If a salesman is handed 400 leads and doesn't come back with a 100 sales, based on past tried and proven methods, something needs to be adjusted. If a salesman is handed 20 leads and doesn't have 5 sales then maybe he is just running below expectation and it is normal variance. A salesman that is proven and experienced can predict the amount of sales based on the number of leads he/she gets based on past performance.
EV is a KPI(key performance indicator) for an AP
Alan not understanding these most basic of concepts is probably why he failed to meet payroll.
Accumulated EV is how most professional blackjack AP's, including almost all teams pay themselves.Quote:
Originally Posted by regnis
Accumulated EV allows you to know how much you (or any team member) is running above or below expectation. If you pay (take withdraws) based on actual winnings while running above expectation, you are essentially depleting your bankroll to the point that it will not be sufficient to withstand the variance (swings) involved in blackjack advantage play. The formula almost all professional AP's, especially teams use is to take withdraws of a fraction of EV earned, NOT actual win. This insures bankroll growth or if you are taking withdraws close to full accumulated EV, assures you will always have the bankroll necessary to withstand variance and swings.
You're a lying bag of shit. You dont play the best payscales and you mangle the ones you do play.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan MendelsonLet me make this clear: I'll play the best paytables available and I play craps at Red Rock because they pay more on place 4 and place 10. But you either win or lose when you play. I don't fool myself by saying "gee, I lost today but I had a lot of positive expected value." That kind of thinking is what I reject. You can't pay bills or deposit in a bank "positive expected value." So stop the BS.Quote:
Originally Posted by MisterV
If AP's were losing there would be no reason to hide their identities from the casinos you fucking moron.Quote:
Originally Posted by Rob.SingerAnd this is EXACTLY what casinos do every time they lure in as many ap's as possible all over town with their lucrative-sounding promotions, when they know most of that promo's cash will come directly from those people.Quote:
Originally Posted by jbjbAnd yet, as explained before, this is EXACTLY what the casinois do. And their bills are paid pretty easily!Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
It's Alan's mentality that keeps him from being a winning gambler.
And casinos seem to easily be doing fine.
This is why these ap's around here cannot post any other way but as anonymous cowards. It's their mentality that keep them from being winning gamblers.
The clarity of the Maxpen and kewlJ posts is outstanding.Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJAccumulated EV is how most professional blackjack AP's, including almost all teams pay themselves.Quote:
Originally Posted by regnis
Accumulated EV allows you to know how much you (or any team member) is running above or below expectation. If you pay (take withdraws) based on actual winnings while running above expectation, you are essentially depleting your bankroll to the point that it will not be sufficient to withstand the variance (swings) involved in blackjack advantage play. The formula almost all professional AP's, especially teams use is to take withdraws of a fraction of EV earned, NOT actual win. This insures bankroll growth or if you are taking withdraws close to full accumulated EV, assures you will always have the bankroll necessary to withstand variance and swings.
Without being the king of hate and without calling me a degenerate gambler (which you do too frequently as if it's part of your planned personal attack on me) please answer the following:
1. Is Rob Singer correct when he says you consider yourself "due" to win after accumulating EV from losing sessions?
2. You told regnis that teams are paid according to their accumulated EV. But if the team accumulated EV with an actual net loss (as what happened to you when you lost $8800) how does the team get paid? There is no net profit according to this scenario.
3. For the record and for Dan who I am sure will read this, why do you call me a "degenerate gambler" when you don't know me, never met me, and know nothing about me? Nor do you have any diagnosis of me to refer to. Why do you choose to libel me knowing I use my real name? I have no hate towards you nor have I called you names. But you have insulted me, made anti semitic remarks towards me, and have made comments with the intentional purpose to cause me harm. Why?
No, the question is....is Dunce Mendelson an idiot or a moron....or both?Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Anyone winning cannot hide from the casinos. Casinos do not pay an ID, they pay a person.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimmIf AP's were losing there would be no reason to hide their identities from the casinos you fucking moron.Quote:
Originally Posted by Rob.SingerAnd this is EXACTLY what casinos do every time they lure in as many ap's as possible all over town with their lucrative-sounding promotions, when they know most of that promo's cash will come directly from those people.Quote:
Originally Posted by jbjb
And casinos seem to easily be doing fine.
This is why these ap's around here cannot post any other way but as anonymous cowards. It's their mentality that keep them from being winning gamblers.