I'm not a Keno player. What happens over the other about 16 tries, given a win of about 8 units over about 17 tries? Lose $0.75 over the other 16 tries?
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If A is exceptionally very unlikely, and B is exceptionally very unlikely, and C is exceptionally very unlikely and you make a claim where all 3 have to be true well then you're full of shit all of the time. Call it the qualitative math. You don't get this.
I don't think smurgerburger is upset because he believed you. He probably respects you more as a forum character simply because of your consistency and ability to pull this off for years. You act like he feels betrayed by you. It is more of respect for your bullshit more than anything. A sort of "well played". Anyhow, that is how I read the quote.
Others - I find Kewl fascinating because no one really knows to what degree he believes himself. Mental illness can be fascinating. Like to me it is 100% clear in my head when I am bullshitting but it is possible people get so wrapped up in their nonsense and their way of life that they believe themselves. Just as it was important to start up the lie - it is just as important to keep it going. Along the way this is what happens.
Kewl - Maybe I will spend some time looking through various media outlets to see if i can find where you were backroomed and assaulted. Does that make you nervous?
Finished reading this thread. It seems that when Kewl is put on the spot yet again by people other than Mdawg and Singer he really goes hard with the teachable moments.
This depends on how the play is constructed, where the value in the play comes from ( for example does it come from mail or a promotion that can be shut down ) , how much time does I take to run, what’s your opportunity cost per hour. There are many scenarios where reducing variance is absolutely the best course of action. I’m not talking about the obvious like bankroll size.
I have one currently.
Play A takes me roughly 1.5 hours with a guaranteed loss of X but returns me roughly 7x over a certain time.
Play A can also be run over a 6 to 8 hour period avoiding taxables with a loss roughly half of X ( even possible to win but it’s still negative EV off the top ) still returns roughly 7x over time
The second method has increased Heat and the chance of getting thrown out is higher. It also takes around 4x times as long.
With limited hours in a day and help / team members its best to utilize the first method. Team
Members can go do more work instead of sitting on this play for one entire day to squeeze out some theoretical EV
Advantage play in the casino environment often has many factors that are not math related. Putting down a play is more nuanced and every play is different. Nothing is played in a vacuum
SV, when you're not talking about your dick, you say some very reasonable stuff...
I didn't use Kelly criterion because I was way over bankrolled. Like at least 100X Kelly. My gig was how much expectation could I find and play off in a 4 or five hour working day. In my case it was about $500 a day for years.
When you are working the big edges that I described in this keno play there is just no fluctuation in bankroll when you are spinning off 4 or five plays a day. The earn is consistent to the point that it's rare to have a losing day. But I WAS limited on the amount of money I could make. You can't raise or lower your bet on a video keno play. You have to stick to the same bet size until the play is complete. I just payed attention to hourly rate.
That's nice of you to say. I honestly have no idea; it's tough to imagine a hypothetical where I have ambition, drive and am at all greed motivated. My family members are fine; there's really only my mom (who is retired in relative comfort), my sister (who's fine-mostly courtesy of my mom) and my kids who will be fine. Any other family I have I either don't know or don't care about at all. The ones who I did care about to an appreciable degree are all dead.
I'm unwilling to discuss private conversations, but I will say that I have reason to believe that SeedValue is legitimately an advantage player. This should not be taken as an absolute endorsement of ALL of his claims (it isn't) or an endorsement that people should work with him (I've never worked with him and don't know what he's like off-forum), but he does know some things that only someone who knows what he's doing would know.
Do you think he's made a lot of his team members "rich" as he likes to claim?
And that cock of his...do you think he really rivals Mr. Ed in that department as he'd have us believe?
Or...wait for it...could it be, dare I say it, "fantasy?"
Or perhaps an insidious form of "mental illness?"
I don't know if it rises to the level of mental illness, but it is most definitely insecurity, MrV. When people are on forums telling you they have made tens of millions gambling (advantage play) they are full of shit. They are telling a fantasy story.
People and players can win money by doing something where the math flips the long-term outcome to their side. But advantage players that do this for any period of time have to work to be able to keep doing it. It is an almost daily battle with the casinos.
When I started sharing my journey, including the money involved and the battles involved (variance/heat/backoffs), it was because there were people on the blackjack forums, I was on at the time, including the MIT guys that were painting a very unrealistic picture of winning, winning winning, almost like the casinos are handing out buckets of money. Like that is the business they are in. So I shared for many years what kind of money could be made and what was involved with doing so, as a card counter. The ups and down. The losing periods. The heat and backoffs, and last year the back-rooming.
Now yes, I know there is a lot more to advantage play than my narrow, little arena of card counting. Some players doing incredible things. New things everyday. Most things I don't understand. But I refuse to believe that so many people are just making buckets of money, hundred of thousands a week, millions of dollars a year. That is just not reality. The casino industry works way too hard, utilizing the latest technology to be sure that doesn't happen at the levels these people are claiming.
There has always been two paths to advantage play. 1) milking or sheering. Focus on longevity. You play limits and a style that is somewhat tolerated. And you learn what is tolerated. And you learn and play the cat and mouse game. Not really tricking or hiding, just finding a comfort level that is tolerated for at least a while. 2) Slaughter. Burn and slash. You get as much as you can for as long as you can (shorter and shorter durations).
But these guys today want us to believe they get that top amount on an ongoing basis. That no one cares. The casinos are fine with it. That is just not reality. It is in fact fantasy, and every one of these kinds of claims from Mdawg, to Singer, to "others" are just that.... fantasy. Some of these people might be making some money, but they are not doing the fantasy nonsense they claim, making millions yearly, making many others rich. ect.
And as soon as one of these guys starts talking about how big their dick is, come on. That is as big a tell as anyone who labels themselves the best or the GOAT. Insecurity at its peak.
That is mostly what these forums are insecure dude, making up fantasy because they are dissatisfied with something about their life and how it nhas played out. And as soon as someone injects a dose of reality, or math into the equation, they are the bad guy.
Well, here's a quandary for you, Mission. If you have someone who "does know some things that only someone who knows what he's doing would know" who also DOES NOT know some things that anyone who knows what they're doing would know, what do you do with that? I mean the question sincerely, because I buy all the Seedvalue spiels about non-sports "AP" play. Of course, I know crap about most forms of "AP" play, so why wouldn't I buy them? But then he says some bizarro stuff, like when he didn't know prostitution was illegal in LV, and it's like fingernails on a chalkboard.
It's not like I'm looking to debunk Seedvalue. He just says some things that are eye-poppingly wrong, and because I've actually spent 50 years betting sports, and because I spent 20-plus years traipsing all over LV a hundred days a year, I'm evidently more aware of his completely off kilter comments when he makes them. That whole spiel of his about not liking to bet sports because it's behind a computer and he's not hands-on raping the casino cash boxes in person -- I mean, LOL. C'mon, man. Do your business in person! How hard is that? It's not like you're more likely to be banned/restricted because you give the casinos some facetime. You may be LESS likely to be banned/restricted betting sports if you do things hands on.
Some of the Seedvalue spiels are bizarrely off, and I'm not talking about the dong references. And it's not because anybody quizzed him; he just inserts discordant crap because he doesn't know it's discordant. He makes assumptions about sports betting that are in line with assumptions about other types of gambling, but his sports betting assumptions happen to be not quite right. He presumes things that shouldn't be presumed, and because those presumptions line up with various forms of "AP" play, most people buy it.
Stfu and go on Druff's show.
Stop all the goddam typing.
I could probably type something at random, and then it would still come out to something in the solver. Ha.
akljfgouqwe4klq0978q34j3opgaklhuioq2wjhwet5oiugw90 87we6tjkwgopuw54jopuwertjhopubnkl
What the fuck did I, just, tell you? Ha.
---> People That Are Going to Hell.Quote:
akljfgouqwe4klq0978q34j3opgaklhuioq2wjhwet5oiugw90 87we6tjkwgopuw54jopuwertjhopubnkl
https://anagram-solver.net/%20akljfg...0?partial=true
https://youtu.be/d5oOnQYKU88