2018 start

EV is "expected value".

Example....I am playing a game with a calculated return of 104%. This means for every 1000 in action I should profit 40.00. Therefore my EV is +40.00 for a 1000.00 session. When you truly have an edge you make a schedule and play it. Variance is not going to affect you if you really have an edge and play according to your bankroll using Kelly Criterion or something similar.

Professional gamblers measure their results on a daily, weekly, and monthly basis using EV. If I get 25K down at 104% return I earned 1K for the day. If I want to make 100K for the year then I know that I have to set a schedule and maintain it to get in the 2.5 million in action needed.

Variance must factor in. Imagine you are playing a game called Mega Roulette. Here are the rules and payouts:
1. The roulette wheel has 100 trillion spots.
2. You may only bet on 1 spot at a time (1 spot per spin).
3. Each spot pays 1 quadrillion to the 1 quadrillionth power to the 1 quadrillionth power to the 1 quadrillionth power to the 1 quadrillionth power to the 1 quadrillionth power.
4. Each spot has an equal chance of hitting.

The EV advantage on this game is too large for the human brain to imagine, but you will never hit your number during the lifetime of the universe (i.e. nearly infinite variance).

From the math I've seen on Megabucks it goes positive at $24,000,000. But the odds on the top line hit is 50,000,000. It's not what I consider hittable. No AP will touch it.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

From the math I've seen on Megabucks it goes positive at $24,000,000. But the odds on the top line hit is 50,000,000. It's not what I consider hittable. No AP will touch it.

---

Exactamundo - thanks for providing a real world example.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by MaxPen

EV is "expected value".

Example....I am playing a game with a calculated return of 104%. This means for every 1000 in action I should profit 40.00. Therefore my EV is +40.00 for a 1000.00 session. When you truly have an edge you make a schedule and play it. Variance is not going to affect you if you really have an edge and play according to your bankroll using Kelly Criterion or something similar.

Professional gamblers measure their results on a daily, weekly, and monthly basis using EV. If I get 25K down at 104% return I earned 1K for the day. If I want to make 100K for the year then I know that I have to set a schedule and maintain it to get in the 2.5 million in action needed.

---

Exactly! Wonderful explanation of EV, MaxPen. And this is precisely why Alan's concept of stop losses and limits is nonsense to AP's. Our daily goal is not bases on any kind of win or loss, but rather getting in the action that we need to generate a predetermined amount of EV needed.

There is one possibility where losses enter into the picture. I have been reluctant to mention it because I don't want to give ammunition to the stop limit guys that really don't understand the concept. That situation is that I nor most player DON'T carry our entire bankroll with us for security reasons. So there is some sort of 'playing bankroll' or 'trip bankroll' that we have on us. So in the event of losing that portion of BR actually on me, I have two options, to replenish and continue or call it a day. Unless I have lost that 'trip bankroll' very quickly, in the first hour or two of the day, I will usually call it a day.

So in effect that IS a 'loss limit' but it is more a loss limit based on security reasons. If you get robbed once, as I have. you quickly learn you have to find that balance of carrying enough to play, but also only a portion of bankroll.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by kewlJ

that particular day that you are obsessing on ($8800 loss) happens to be my best day of the year. I accumulated more EV that day so far this year and in the end that will translate into actual win.

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by kewlJ

That sir, is the basic philosophy of AP.

---

Does this mean when Alan wins $10K playing craps, that this is actually a bad day since he has accumulated -EV ?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by kewlJ

I don't track my play by wins or losses. I track my play by EV accumulated. That makes every day a winning day

---

This is confusing, weren't you tracking your play when you wrote this?...

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by kewlJ

I have started 2018 with 5 consecutive + $1000 days.

---

Stop playing these little "gottch ya games" coach. You are an intelligent knowledgeable gambling guy. Start contributing in a positive manner instead of playing these silly games.

kewlj, if I start with a say a hundred thousand bankroll and due to variance lose half of it does that mean when I start my next session it's the same as if I were starting from day one with a fifty thousand bankroll so at that point I have a much higher chance of going bust?

Basically yes.

True 'Kelly' which is optimal for bankroll growth, says that you resize as your bankroll goes up and down. So technically if you win a wager, your next bet should be slightly larger than the last with the same advantage. :rolleyes: But nobody does that. No one is going to resize that frequently. Plus you would be wagering all these odd amounts. So the compromise position is to resize after a certain % bankroll gain or decline. Something like maybe 20-25%.

The year I started off losing 34k, which was 34% of my original 100k bankroll, I probably should have resized somewhere about 20-25k loss level....but I didn't. I really despise the idea of losing 10's of thousands of dollars playing one betting level and resizing and trying to win that back playing half the level. :( So I didn't 'resize' when I should have....and got lucky. I think if I had hit 40-50k, I would have resized. I did have the advantage at that time that 100k starting bankroll wasn't all my wealth, but it was a significant portion of it at that time.

The other thing is that I am not trying to grow my bankroll so that I can move up in stakes (betting levels) so as to earn even more money. I am done with that. I went through that growing my bankroll period. I am now comfortably bankrolled for the levels that I want to play for a while. Levels that I have identified as fairly well tolerated, which will hopefully allow for some longevity of another 10 years. "Hopefully"...:rolleyes:

You stop(or lower your bets) when your bankroll is in jeopardy. That's so you can reevaluate what and how much you can afford to bet going forward without going broke. It's seem like KJ didn't feel as if an $8800 loss was going to put him in a much different situation.

One might ask why re-size. You just built up all that accumulated EV after those losses.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by regnis

One might ask why re-size. You just built up all that accumulated EV after those losses.

---

That is correct. You can't play $25 level video poker for an hour, experience a bad run and get your ass handed to you and then drop down to 25 cent level and think you are going to win all that back and get to the level of 'expectation' that you should be at for total play. :rolleyes:

My conclusion that eventually (long-term results) EV and actual results will 'line up' pretty close together is based on the same or relatively close level of play. It is just very hard to "catch up" playing much lower levels. To avoid this you have to make sure you are properly bankrolled from the start. I mean to the point that you are playing nearly 0 RoR to start with, so you don't have to resize. Many players aren't in that position. Many players are still building their BR.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by kewlJ

Stop playing these little "gottch ya games" coach. You are an intelligent knowledgeable gambling guy. Start contributing in a positive manner instead of playing these silly games.

---

If you are uncomfortable answering the questions then don't answer them, but suggesting that I stop asking questions is disingenuous.

You had 5 winning days and 1 losing day, I'm trying to understand how the losing day is the best of the 6.

You didn't provide details of your play on the losing day, and how that differed from the play on the winning days
such that you could accumulate more EV.

Did you play more hands on the losing day?

Earlier you referenced the end of your "work day", does the length of the work day vary,
and what circumstances would cause the length of your play to change from one day to the next?

Yes, I did. I had better conditions on that particular day (8800 losing day). It was a weekday (Monday) and I happened to luck into a couple heads up play sessions. That means more rounds played and higher EV.

Most days with bigger win AND loss total will be days played with better conditions, meaning getting in more rounds (heads up) or more opportunities to track multiple tables jump directly to other max bet counts. It really is about those higher counts....what I call "max bet opportunities". The more of them you have the more likely to win (or lose) a little more money. So your bigger winning AND losing days are likely to be days played with better conditions.

And just the opposite, if I end up playing days with crowded condition and less chance to jump to better tables and opportunities, I am likely to experience smaller winning and losing days. There are fewer 'max bet opportunities' and that is where your wins and losses REALLY come from.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by regnis

One might ask why re-size. You just built up all that accumulated EV after those losses.

---

To keep your Risk of Ruin next to nil.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by jbjb

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by regnis

One might ask why re-size. You just built up all that accumulated EV after those losses.

---

To keep your Risk of Ruin next to nil.

---

What risk. You have all that accumulated EV to cash in on.

But seriously, as KEWL answered, you can't recoup if you decrease too much. Also, if you do believe in the math and the accumulated EV, you will have decreased at a time that you should be winning. Just seems a slight dichotomy.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by kewlJ

I happened to luck into a couple heads up play sessions. That means more rounds played and higher EV.

---

I understand that the higher counts would last longer playing heads-up, since fewer cards are dealt for each round,
but doesn't it take longer for the max bet opportunity to develop for the same reason?

Do you continue to play heads-up if the count is negative or marginal?

And once you jump to another table, doesn't that conclude the heads-up play?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by regnis

You just built up all that accumulated EV after those losses.

---

Isn't that a type of Gambler's Fallacy?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Bill Yung

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by regnis

You just built up all that accumulated EV after those losses.

---

Isn't that a type of Gambler's Fallacy?

---

Exactly my point Bill

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by kewlJ

And that particular day that you are obsessing on ($8800 loss) happens to be my best day of the year. I accumulated more EV that day so far this year and in the end that will translate into actual win. :cool:

I used to have a 'signature line' on another site that read: "I don't track my play by wins or losses. I track my play by EV accumulated. That makes every day a winning day and in the end (long-term) actual wins and EV will come together."

That sir, is the basic philosophy of AP. :)

---

I think I had the measles when they taught this lesson in math: losing dollars is okay because you thought you should be winning.

I promise I am done with this. No one ever told me EV DOLLARS is what it's all about.