Covid-19 by the numbers

KewlJ according to the way you’re calculating the mortality rate, resolved cases then it’s like 70% in the US. That’s fucking ridiculous and not any better of a way to do it than by total number of cases. Most US states right now are only testing people who are hospitalized, LA is reportedly only testing people if it would change how they are being treated. At best US stats are only good for measuring modest to severe cases with the exception of politicians/nba players/celebrities etc.

We don’t really know exactly how other countries are testing. Italy is heavily skewed because their system is overrun and they are simply unable to care for everyone. China’s numbers obviously can’t be taken seriously. Russia claims they have no mortalities (lol). My point is all the data we have from most countries is heavily skewed in its own way and there’s really not any way to put any context to it to draw any reasonable conclusions from worldwide data.

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

Look there is a reason why our government and governments all across the world have chosen to shutdown EVERYTHING and destroy their own and the world economy, which is going to take years to recover from. They wouldn't have made that decision based on a 1% mortality rate. In the US almost 3 million people die each year anyway from everything else. So a 1% mortality rate from this disease would have in effect doubled that. That is unpleasant but not a catastrophe. You don't destroy life on this planet for that.

The actual mortality rate has to be much higher or they believe it will be much higher to make the decisions they have made. Just think of the financial implications. The NBA! NHL, MLB, EVERY casino in this country. Airlines, hotels, Schools. NO, even panicked governments wouldn't choose the decision they did bases on 1%, or even 2%. They KNOW it is going to be much higher.

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Wow, listening to you and Monet (the 2 resident messengers of doom) we should all just pack it in and wait to die

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Originally Posted by Keystone

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

Look there is a reason why our government and governments all across the world have chosen to shutdown EVERYTHING and destroy their own and the world economy, which is going to take years to recover from. They wouldn't have made that decision based on a 1% mortality rate. In the US almost 3 million people die each year anyway from everything else. So a 1% mortality rate from this disease would have in effect doubled that. That is unpleasant but not a catastrophe. You don't destroy life on this planet for that.

The actual mortality rate has to be much higher or they believe it will be much higher to make the decisions they have made. Just think of the financial implications. The NBA! NHL, MLB, EVERY casino in this country. Airlines, hotels, Schools. NO, even panicked governments wouldn't choose the decision they did bases on 1%, or even 2%. They KNOW it is going to be much higher.

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Wow, listening to you and Monet (the 2 resident messengers of doom) we should all just pack it in and wait to die

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Keystone, stop worrying as long as you are well supplied in toilet paper you will be okay.

That data is not being universally collected in the same way is most definitely a problem. It adds to the uncertainty.

But the bigger problem is that it can take up to a month for this virus to run its course in an infected person. Some recover quicker, like a week to 10 or 11 days, but some it takes 4 weeks. So people that become infected say today or yesterday (like Rand Paul) are counted in the cases, but their outcome is probably weeks away. The only people that have currently died in the US are people that were infected several weeks ago. That is why you cant use the current cases that have not been resolved (are just beginning and the patient probably isn't even sick yet) to figure the death rate. Its preposterous.

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Originally Posted by Keystone

Wow, listening to you and Monet (the 2 resident messengers of doom) we should all just pack it in and wait to die

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I just don't believe any government, especially a businessman like Donald Trump, would choose to basically destroy the economy and our way of life, based on a death rate of 1%, or even 2%. All that does is basically double or triple the normal amount of annual deaths in this country and while that would be unpleasant, you would muddle through it hoping science and doctors can come up with a treatment and vaccine within a year or two. You don't destroy the world and our way of life over it.

For Donald Trump and other governments to do so, they have to have been convinced it is much worse than that, a much higher death rate than we are currently being told.

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

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Originally Posted by Keystone

Wow, listening to you and Monet (the 2 resident messengers of doom) we should all just pack it in and wait to die

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I just don't believe any government, especially a businessman like Donald Trump, would choose to basically destroy the economy and our way of life, based on a death rate of 1%, or even 2%. All that does is basically double or triple the normal amount of annual deaths in this country and while that would be unpleasant, you would muddle through it hoping science and doctors can come up with a treatment and vaccine within a year or two. You don't destroy the world and our way of life over it.

For Donald Trump and other governments to do so, they have to have been convinced it is much worse than that, a much higher death rate than we are currently being told.

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Suddenly the light bulb goes off as you changed your earlier stance from a few days ago.

I don't think that anybody, still, really believes a thing Trump says. Now we have him talking about all the people he's going to "bail" out of this mess. The guy "stiffed" everybody he, himself, owes money to.

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Originally Posted by BoSox

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

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Originally Posted by Keystone

Wow, listening to you and Monet (the 2 resident messengers of doom) we should all just pack it in and wait to die

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I just don't believe any government, especially a businessman like Donald Trump, would choose to basically destroy the economy and our way of life, based on a death rate of 1%, or even 2%. All that does is basically double or triple the normal amount of annual deaths in this country and while that would be unpleasant, you would muddle through it hoping science and doctors can come up with a treatment and vaccine within a year or two. You don't destroy the world and our way of life over it.

For Donald Trump and other governments to do so, they have to have been convinced it is much worse than that, a much higher death rate than we are currently being told.

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Suddenly the light bulb goes off as you changed your earlier stance from a few days ago.

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how so? I believe the actually death rate is much higher than we have been told or is being calculated right now based on incomplete data (people currently sick that have not either recovered or died). Nothing has changed.

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

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Originally Posted by BoSox

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

I just don't believe any government, especially a businessman like Donald Trump, would choose to basically destroy the economy and our way of life, based on a death rate of 1%, or even 2%. All that does is basically double or triple the normal amount of annual deaths in this country and while that would be unpleasant, you would muddle through it hoping science and doctors can come up with a treatment and vaccine within a year or two. You don't destroy the world and our way of life over it.

For Donald Trump and other governments to do so, they have to have been convinced it is much worse than that, a much higher death rate than we are currently being told.

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Suddenly the light bulb goes off as you changed your earlier stance from a few days ago.

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how so? I believe the actually death rate is much higher than we have been told or is being calculated right now based on incomplete data (people currently sick that have not either recovered or died). Nothing has changed.

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Basically A few days ago you were stating that we should not shut down the whole country for the hopes of saving a few extra elderly from dying. You also said that life goes on and that the old people will need, and know how to look out for themselves.

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Originally Posted by BoSox

Basically A few days ago you were stating that we should not shut down the whole country for the hopes of saving a few extra elderly from dying. You also said that life goes on and that the old people will need to look out for themselves.

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Look Bosox, 1 of 2 things is going on here.

1.) if the death rate from this pandemic is in the 1% range, 1%, 1.3% (mickey's number), even up towards 2%, then the things we have done is a very disproportionate "over-reaction". You don't see me quote Donald Trump very often but "the solution is worse than the problem". The solution of shutting down the economy and our way of life is going to have huge long-term negative consequences.

So if it is the case that the death rate is in the 1%, 1.5% range, that would make this virus 10 to 15 times more deadly than the regular flu. And that would result in an extra 3-4.5 million deaths'. For comparison roughly 2.6 million people die in the US every year from all causes. So the total annual deaths in this country double, maybe triple worse case scenario, which is very unpleasant, until they came up with a treatment or vaccine, which hopefully will be within a year or two.

Now if that were the case the most vulnerable would be older people and people with medical conditions and issues and as with all situations they would have to take extra precautions to protect themselves.

And IF the death rate is in that 1% range, basically doubling annual deaths in the US, then the current remedy is way disproportionate. It is going to cause far more damage, hurting far more people for a very long time.

Now scenario #2 is that the death rate is far greater than 1% range. Maybe closer to 10%, maybe more. I happen to think that is what the data is really telling us, throwing out china, which we can't trust their numbers. And IF this is the case, and 30, 40, 60 million people are going to die, then yes, you could see extreme measures of shutting down our economy and way of life trying to save as many people as possible. If this is the case then the response is appropriate.

But the two don't make sense together. Ruining the economy and our way of life because of a 1% mortality rate, just don't make sense. We are either being lied to about the death rate or the solution is an over-reaction and worse than the initial problem.

But don't make me out to be against old people. My mother is just on the cusp of the 60+ group and I have a very good friend (and pit critter) in that 60+ range. I am not wishing anything bad on any group. But the fact is older people and people with medical conditions are more vulnerable with almost anything that comes down the pike. They are going to have to take extra precautions and do what they need to do to protect themselves as best they can. But we can't shut down the world forever.

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Originally Posted by Keystone

Wow, listening to you and Monet (the 2 resident messengers of doom) we should all just pack it in and wait to die

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By all means, I would love to hear all the positive predictions that you or anyone else has on the subject.
I guess the best case scenario is that it is some sort of scam and they will find a miracle in the next month or so.

I would say that if you can bridge the gap between crisis and restart you have opportunities to come out of this ahead of what you started at.
The problem is that your average person either doesn't have the supply to hibernate or they don't have the funds to hibernate.
You have a possibility that banks could go under or freeze all accounts.
We are about to undergo a massive amount of borrowing at increased interest rates.
That in itself is going to be a problem.
Expect major government/social changes that are going to take more liberties away from us peons.

I certainly do not know the future and we could come out of this in great shape.
I just play the odds and the odds are against that.

My posts were basically talking about what is in the news and happening.
The other stuff was just stating that an individual should take this seriously and prepare for the worst the best they can.
I don't think you can just say its a scam and will blow over in a few weeks.
We are certainly looking at a domino effect the more we close business as usual.

The honest truth is that we are all going to die eventually so make the best of it.
I always state that the most important thing is to figure out what happens after death since we all must go through it eventually.
Posting is fun for me sometimes but I will try to limit less doom and gloom for your sake.

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

The numbers this morning:

35,345 coronavirus cases in U.S.
473 deaths
That's a 1.3% mortality rate, about 1 in 77 die. But you need to look at your own age bracket to get more refined odds.

Mortality rate is definitely lower because of unknown cases of coronavirus.

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Mickey, your numbers are not right. the mortality rate is not the total deaths divided by total cases. It is total deaths divided by total closed, or resolved cases. In the US, most cases are still active, with many in critical condition. That means many more will die from that "pool".

Look if there are 100 cases, you want to know how many of those 100 will die. So if 2 have currently died and 15 more are in critical care in ICU, calculating that the mortality rate is 2% is crazy. You have to wait until those other cases are resolved, meaning either recover or die.

Go back to that site you are using and exclude the active cases, which has not been completed yet and compare only deaths to recoveries. THAT is eye opening. ONLY china has many more recoveries than deaths and we don't even know if we can believe their numbers. Look at every other country....shocking and scary!

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How about unknown cases? Where do they factor in?

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Originally Posted by monet

I always state that the most important thing is to figure out what happens after death since we all must go through it eventually.

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Well I can help you with this one. ;)

There is a heaven and a hell or whatever name you want to give them. But that is not where you are going immediately after this life. you are working your way there. Think of it as an 10 or 12 (maybe more) floor building. You move up and down based on your actions at any given level.

This level happens to be a lower level, down towards the bottom. That is why there are so many problems here. And each of us being here means we didn't fare to well at our last "assignment" or chance. But we still have the choice of where our journey continues next, (up or down a level or two) until we earn our ultimate and final destination.

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

The numbers this morning:

35,345 coronavirus cases in U.S.
473 deaths
That's a 1.3% mortality rate, about 1 in 77 die. But you need to look at your own age bracket to get more refined odds.

Mortality rate is definitely lower because of unknown cases of coronavirus.

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Mickey, your numbers are not right. the mortality rate is not the total deaths divided by total cases. It is total deaths divided by total closed, or resolved cases. In the US, most cases are still active, with many in critical condition. That means many more will die from that "pool".

Look if there are 100 cases, you want to know how many of those 100 will die. So if 2 have currently died and 15 more are in critical care in ICU, calculating that the mortality rate is 2% is crazy. You have to wait until those other cases are resolved, meaning either recover or die.

Go back to that site you are using and exclude the active cases, which has not been completed yet and compare only deaths to recoveries. THAT is eye opening. ONLY china has many more recoveries than deaths and we don't even know if we can believe their numbers. Look at every other country....shocking and scary!

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How about unknown cases? Where do they factor in?

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So if there are unknown cases, with symptoms so mild that people don't even know they were infected and are back to normal in a few days, maybe not even knowing they were sick....that is a good thing, a best case scenario. :)

That will mean the numbers are better, death rate lower. It would also mean that this "solution" that we are currently in, is an over-reaction and much worse that the initial problem.

We just don't know. But what I do know it the damage we are doing, have "chosen" to do as a solution, does not make unless they (power that be, including Mr Trump) are convinced or have been convinced by others that the death toll is going to be much greater.

Like I said, it is one or the other scenario, but the solution that was "chosen" based on a 1% death rate doesn't make any sense. As Trump is now beginning to conclude...the solution is worse than the initial problem. It is just disproportionate.

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

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Originally Posted by monet

I always state that the most important thing is to figure out what happens after death since we all must go through it eventually.

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Well I can help you with this one. ;)

There is a heaven and a hell or whatever name you want to give them. But that is not where you are going immediately after this life. you are working your way there. Think of it as an 10 or 12 (maybe more) floor building. You move up and down based on your actions at any given level.

This level happens to be a lower level, down towards the bottom. That is why there are so many problems here. And each of us being here means we didn't fare to well at our last "assignment" or chance. But we still have the choice of where our journey continues next, (up or down a level or two) until we earn our ultimate and final destination.

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Hindu type stuff?

We keep hearing this example from 1918, Philadelphia vs St Louis. St Louis was very aggressive in limiting groups of people and encouraged people to stay home AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE. Philadelphia refused to cancel a parade and had 10's of thousands turn out and 6 week later experiences a severe spike in deaths.

So based on that, they seem to have decided that the better solution is to shut everything down and lock people in their homes. Well what about a middle ground? Having the parade or any unnecessary large gathering is a bad idea, but you still have to go about life. Can't shut down the world. If you do we are going to have another 10 year not recession, but depression. How many people will THAT kill? The response has to be proportionate to the problem.

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

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Originally Posted by monet

I always state that the most important thing is to figure out what happens after death since we all must go through it eventually.

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Well I can help you with this one. ;)

There is a heaven and a hell or whatever name you want to give them. But that is not where you are going immediately after this life. you are working your way there. Think of it as an 10 or 12 (maybe more) floor building. You move up and down based on your actions at any given level.

This level happens to be a lower level, down towards the bottom. That is why there are so many problems here. And each of us being here means we didn't fare to well at our last "assignment" or chance. But we still have the choice of where our journey continues next, (up or down a level or two) until we earn our ultimate and final destination.

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Since we are talking about religion here, no matter whose elevator you are on, being gay will most likely put you in the basement.::o

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Originally Posted by mcap

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

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Originally Posted by monet

I always state that the most important thing is to figure out what happens after death since we all must go through it eventually.

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Well I can help you with this one. ;)

There is a heaven and a hell or whatever name you want to give them. But that is not where you are going immediately after this life. you are working your way there. Think of it as an 10 or 12 (maybe more) floor building. You move up and down based on your actions at any given level.

This level happens to be a lower level, down towards the bottom. That is why there are so many problems here. And each of us being here means we didn't fare to well at our last "assignment" or chance. But we still have the choice of where our journey continues next, (up or down a level or two) until we earn our ultimate and final destination.

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Hindu type stuff?

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I don't know. I am not a student of religion. Someone recently told me it was sort of loosely along the lines of what Mormons beleive. I don't know. Just what I have come to believe and it answers why THIS place exists and such bad things occur here. :rolleyes:

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Originally Posted by monet

I always state that the most important thing is to figure out what happens after death since we all must go through it eventually.

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What other reason for a finite existence?

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Originally Posted by BoSox

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

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Originally Posted by monet

I always state that the most important thing is to figure out what happens after death since we all must go through it eventually.

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Well I can help you with this one. ;)

There is a heaven and a hell or whatever name you want to give them. But that is not where you are going immediately after this life. you are working your way there. Think of it as an 10 or 12 (maybe more) floor building. You move up and down based on your actions at any given level.

This level happens to be a lower level, down towards the bottom. That is why there are so many problems here. And each of us being here means we didn't fare to well at our last "assignment" or chance. But we still have the choice of where our journey continues next, (up or down a level or two) until we earn our ultimate and final destination.

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No matter whose elevator you are on, being gay will most likely put you in the basement.::o

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You don't know that. It is apparent you hope that or want that, but you don't know that. Jesus very well have been gay and had gay relations. Also a good many of the religious leaders that have repeatedly screamed about being gay as a sin, turn out to be gay and have had closeted gay relations themselves. They are not speaking for any "God". But lets not hijack this thread into religion.

Ps: God said "love thy neighbor". If my neighbor happens to be a male....what am I supposed to do? ;) (that is humor BoSox)