Kewlj is now saying there is a difference in visibility between seat #2 and the middle seat.
I didn't see any difference.
Would someone else please compare the visibility between the two seats?
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Kewlj is now saying there is a difference in visibility between seat #2 and the middle seat.
I didn't see any difference.
Would someone else please compare the visibility between the two seats?
That is bullshit, Alan! Kewlj is NOT NOW saying it. Re-read post #321, posted before you made your little midnight run, where you intentionally posted a view from a different angle.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
You didn't see any difference, because you don't want to see any difference. It's not like you are looking objectively is it? You made up your mind and went searching for an angle that backs your views. Didn't matter that it was not what was discussed.
Let me ask you something: How in the hell would someone sit in one of the first two seats, with their back to the table "next" to them and be able to see the cards at that table. Is that really what you think I was saying? Because I think I made it pretty clear that you need to be in the middle of the table so you can see both the table to your right and the table to your left with just a slight turn of the head or eyes. Remember??...we had that whole discussion about the head and eyes being able to move??
It is you who changed the story and continue to do so.
As a matter of fact, let me ask anyone else who read the thread: Is there anyone who didn't understand that I specifically said seated at the middle of the table?
I haven't played blackjack for 35 years, but I understood the mention of middle seat. That's why I said I'd measure from middle seat to middle seat with the tape measure. I think pretty obviously that's where one would sit to attempt it.
I'm not saying the 18 yo's in a row did not happen, but mathematically has anyone ever calculated the odds?Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
The odds of 18 Yos in a row is gazillions to one. This is why they can't believe it. I knew the odds of rolling two in a row are high which is why I didn't bet a yo after the second throw... and after the third... and after the fourth... and after the fifth...
I'm really looking forward to someone sitting at a blackjack table and comparing the views of neighboring tables from ALL seats.
By the way kewlj all of the blackjack tables in that pit were in two parallel rows. When sitting at any table there was no table at your back. Obviously I was looking at the next table either to my right or left.
Maybe the 18-inches between each seat makes a difference to you? But 18-inches or even 36-inches doesn't make a difference to me.
Distance between tables is only one variable. Other variabkes:
When cards are dealt and timing
How cards land on the table
Your height and your angle of view
Speed of the action of dealers and players
Position of players who might block cards
For me just the distance between the tables was enough of an obstacle.
What will others find?
WRONG! Any time there are two blackjack tables next to each other, the person in the end seats (1st base and 3rd base) have their back to the table next to them. The table is curved....it HAS to be that way. If you are sitting at first base (1st seat), your back will be right up against the back of the person playing third base (last seat) at the next table. Even your blurry picture shows that.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
There may be a little bit of room at some casinos, but most are right up against each other....actually 'pinched in'. Even if there is a bit of room, you are still back to back with that player. This is one of the reasons that I avoid those corner seats. I don't want to get 'pinched in', should a quick exit become necessary. In addition, at either corner (1st base or 3rd base), your back will not only be to the table behind you, but half the pit will be to your back. I want a clear view of pit activities.
All those other "variables" that you mentioned are nonsense. That's just you looking for an issue. Those variables are non issues for experienced counters. And as I said at the very beginning, yes occasionally you may miss a card or two, being temp blocked or timing or whatever. You would like your count at the second table to be as accurate as possible, but if it is off a couple, that is acceptable. All you are looking for is a significantly better count at that second table, presenting a stronger opportunity than the table you are currently playing.
I don't know why I am bothering to explain this a 4th or 5th time now. Tracking two tables isn't anything new nor ground-breaking and it isn't that difficult for experienced counters, playing a reasonably simple count. Good spotters on decent teams are tracking 3,4,5 tables, looking for that same significant count to call in the big player. Tracking a second table while playing one, is kind of like acting as your own spotter.
But you will continue to choose not to believe and challenge....so do your thing.
A couple other things for your consideration. Usually the second table that I am tracking only has 1, 2 or 3 players, which makes it more likely that I have a line of vision. I won't bother with a table that has 4 or 5 players because the last thing I want to do is track that second table, get a strong positive count and have someone jump in the last available seat or two, before I can.
And I am sure you are going to love this one (as in scream No way), but occasionally, very rarely...but occasionally, I am tracking my game and two other tables. It's rare. First I need active tables on both sides of me, where I have a clear line of vision and seats available at each table, should I jump. I can only do this for a round or two. So if the timing is just right and each of those tables are staring a new shoe about the same time, I will track both (in addition to my own game), for a round or two and then drop the table with the worst count and continue tracking my game and one neighboring game.
So go ahead. Call me a liar, because you think it can't be done.
Alan, I sincerely doubt the claim that 18 Yos (elevens) were rolled in a row in craps.
The odds of one Yo is 1/18 -- or 5.6%.
Now, let's throw out the first one, because a Yo will eventually be rolled. So the question is -- what are the odds of 17 more consecutive Yos being rolled right after that?
Well, that math problem is easy. You take 1/18 and make it to the power of 17. So it's (1/18)^17.
And the answer? 1 in 2185911559738696531968.
Approximately 1 in 2 sextillion.
How long are those odds?
Let's say a craps roll occurs every 10 seconds. It doesn't (because the game pauses far more often than that), but let's go with that number.
At that rate, you would see 17 Yos in a row once every 692 trillion years. And we're talking about 17 Yos in a row. Change it to 18, and that goes up to once every 12 quadrillion years.
Needless to say, Alan has never seen 18 Yos in a row, nor has anyone anytime anywhere.
Unless the dice were loaded.
This assumes the first roll is already a yo and you only need 17 more yo's. Either way, it's a crazy number. That doesn't really do it justice. You can say a billion or a googol, but we can't really wrap our brain around it.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Put simply, you're far and away much more likely to get dealt three royal flushes in a row than to see 18 yo's in a row (about 143,000 times as likely). Dealt RF, as in being dealt all 5 RF cards and auto-holding all 5.
If you're playing video poker on 10-play and are dealt 4 to the royal, you're 748,000 times more likely to draw the single royal card, on all 10 draws, than to see 18 yo's in a row. I've played a good amount of 10-play, and I've hit a royal on 2 of the draws three times I can remember. I've never hit 3+ in one go. I would assume the machine malfunctioned if I hit all 10 (not that I'd deny the money).
Kewlj please look at the photos I took at Mirage. Does it look to you that the players in the end seats are back to back?
Here's a photo of a blackjack table for sale. Where are the end positions?
https://sep.yimg.com/ay/yhst-3048615...able-004-3.gif
By the way, which is the MIDDLE seat you said you use?
http://www.americangamingsupply.com/...productId=5986
I know Dan. I know. And that's why I never bet even one dollar on the Yo. Who would have thunk another Yo was coming?
You are really clutching at straws with this one. People don't sit as close together as the bets spots are. People playing first and third base sit on the very end of the table.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Mickeycrimm please post a photo.
This photo comes from Google. Put in a few players and do you think you can see the cards at other tables?
https://www.google.com/search?q=phot...mJ6_U8hSm5s0M:
And which is the MIDDLE SEAT?
Question for Kewlj: you prefer the "middle" seat over "third base"? Care to explain?
I've been dealt a royal four times.Quote:
Originally Posted by RS__
First was at Mandalay on a 50-play machine. Nickels. It paid $10,000.
Second was at Rincon on a progressive that paid about $36,000.
Third was at Bellagio on their $5 progressive. Paid $31,005. I posted the photo here on this forum.
Fourth was at Caesars on a $1 game. I posted the photo here on this forum.
And then my girlfriend was dealt two royals within 24 hours.
Figure the odds. Shit happens.
You also mocked me for getting two $100K royals within 300 hands of playing $25 VP. It happened again. What you're overlooking is that in both cases I had played $1, $2 and $5 video poker -- sometimes for hours -- before I built up the bankroll to play $25 and I got the royals soon after switching to $25 VP.
I also played $1, $2, and $5 video poker sometimes for weeks or months without a royal. The royals just happened to have come when the denomination was $25.
I hit another royal this past week. But it was a 25 cent royal at Arizona Charlies on Boulder Highway. I started with $100 in the machine.
YES!!!Quote:
Originally Posted by blackholeThat was 15 years ago. Are casinos still that stupid relating to AP abuse of promotions?Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimmAbsolutely not. I had been off the street for six years at that point. And I was enjoying full RFB in every joint in Laughlin.Quote:
Originally Posted by blackhole
Some of the best promotions I have been on have been in the last 4 years. It's hard to rate the best promo/play, it's kinda subjective. There may be a high-value play that only lasts for one day VS a lower value play that lasts a long time.
At The Pioneer that MC was talking about, it was not a promotion, it was a complete system integrated into their slots. They have had a casino double time on their slots for over 20 years in various different versions. They started off with a visual double time. A song would play multiple times during the hour...
♪Double time, double time, double time, blah.. blah.. blah♪ (I think they may still play the same song). If you hit a particular slot payout during the song and your slot light would glow solid and you were paid double. They had employees up in carousels and around the casino who verified and then someone came and paid you. After a while, they got hit by AP's, so they started watching people who were only jumping in and playing during the double time period. Guys would get warned and or tossed out. An easy fix for an AP, just playing 1 coin slow moving around in between the double time, of course, that ate into your profits. Obviously, the casino caught onto that after a while, but there are usually ways to get around being noticed as an AP, at least for a while, but it was hard to go undetected for long.
As technology advanced they advanced the system as they changed a few things throughout the years. It was all but impossible to get away with for long until they added a new automated system by Anchor gaming, the one MC is referring to(The Mandalaybay casino added a similar system to their entire casino when it first opened...OOPS!!)
Even better than the keno at the Pioneer, I noticed they had 2 untouched Odyssey multi game machines with Top hat Blackjack where we bet $100 a hand. You got double for each winning hand(not only your win but your bet as well) during the double time(sometimes it fucked you). The double time worked on a banking system divided into sections, so the more you won during a session the longer it took to come on next time in that section. The casino noticed little by little what games were getting taken advantage of, so they kept tweaking the hit requirements higher and higher. They still have the same system in place and there may be a good opportunity hidden in there somewhere as they have changed machines, I haven't really taken the time to look for a long time.
And you are not an AP, correct? IIRC Alan has indicated its mostly only AP's who don't believe he saw 18 yo's in a row.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
I dont think you would find too many people who really believe it. I'm sure anyone who claims they believe it are just humoring him, or they are the same people who believe in bigfoot.
No one has to believe it. Frankly, I don't care. I have no money at stake. I didn't roll the dice. I just stood there and will always regret I never bet even one dollar on those 18 rolls... never mind a press.
The point is it happened. Life goes on.
My girlfriend was dealt two royals in less than 24 hours. Somebody wins the lottery. In fact, when I lived in Valencia I lived on a street where one of the neighbors won the California lottery twice in one year. Shit happens.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
That's a no brainer, Alan. Third base is where they think a card counter will sit. But there may be other reasons too, like counting 2 tables. I'll defer to KJ.
YES, absolutely it does. Look at your blurry picture. It is the picture of the back of a chair from the next table. That chair and 1st base at the table you took it from are back to back and quite literally would be close to touching if the chairs were pulled out with people sitting in them.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
There are no chairs in this picture, so it is useless. However, what you are doing is searching the internet for a picture of a table that might show what YOU want it to show....allowing for the corner seats not to be so much in the corners, so 1st base and 3rd base might not be back-to-back. Stop searching for an odd picture that supports your claims. You have a picture that you took in an actual casino....OF YOUR CHOOSING! Blurry and all, it clearly shows the 1st and 3rd seats of neighboring tables, back to back. STOP PLAYING GAMES Alan!Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Good lord, there is something really, really wrong with you!?! :confused: The table has 6 freaking chairs and you are asking which one is the middle chair. On a 6 seat table either of the two center chairs will suffice. On a 5 chair table, there is a natural "middle chair". Both 5 and 6 chair tables are common in Las Vegas. In AC they used to have 7 chair tables.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
I explained that, just last night, I am not going to do so again, because you choose not to read or can't understand it.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
All you are doing is trolling and I am done with you! You are a messed up dude! Dan might think you deserve some kind of extra respect because you used to own this site. I think you are one of the biggest trolls and game-players, I have seen on the internet.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Dan, you kind of ruined the surprise component of an article I was planning called "The Case of the 18 Yos."
I have the rights to www.TheSkepticalGambler.com, and this is going to be a lead article when I get it up and running.
I'll give the readers here a preview. Basically (and I know nothing about craps at all; I never play), it comes down to this. The math guys can be right, and Alan can also be right. How can this be? Well, ask yourselves, what is more likely, that 18 Yos happened with fair dice, or that a pair of dice that was supposed to be set aside somehow got mixed into the game? The answer presents itself.
Now that opens all the arguments about casinos never cheating and all that, which I find ludicrous from a pragmatic and historical perspective. Rigged dice exist. Thirty years ago, they were not uncommon. Is it really likely they are extinct? C'mon, people, this is the real world.
The most likely explanation, the Occam's Razor explanation, is that a pair of dice that should not have been in the game, somehow got mixed with the other dice by mistake and inserted into the game. Whether it was 15 Yos or 16 yos or whatever, that is the most logical, elegant explanation.
I'm not trolling. I am asking you to prove your assertion that you can accurately count two tables simultaneously. So far, you've actually admitted that you can't. So why did you assert it in the first place?
You can't see all the cards. You said so yourself. Your count could be way off and inaccurate. So, it's pointless unless you want to use "guesswork" as being an AP.
Frankly, I think you're trolling with your continued assertion that card counting at two tables is possible when you yourself have told us how limited it can be.
I called you on it. Deal with it or prove me wrong.
redietz the dice weren't rigged. shit happened.
what amazes me is that so many people are saying it couldn't because the odds of it were against it happening. but NONE of those people were at the table. I was at the table.
I don't care if you don't believe. It happened. No one lost any bet with me.
By the way, after the "disbelief" on the WOV website, I went to the managers at Caesars and requested the tape of the table. That's when I found out the tapes were recycled after two or three days unless a "hold" was placed. No one placed a hold.
James, the stickman, retired shortly afterwards. I didn't know the other dealers -- it was daytime and they may have been per diem. There was no boxman and the floorman was not at our table.
Don't believe if you don't want to. It doesn't matter.
Next.
What the fuck is wrong with you? You are seriously very detached from reality. :(Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
I have shown far more patience with you that you deserve. But I am done now. I will no longer entertain your delusions.
What's "wrong" with me is that I've been in the news business since I was 14 years old (I'm now 65). I've won one Emmy, the Janus Award, countless awards from the AP, 8 Golden Mics, 10 LA Press Club Awards, I wrote for the Columbia Journalism Review and the Washington Journalism Review. My career included stints (not a stringer) with CBS News, Barrons, Bloomberg, and yes I was a "stringer" with CNN while I worked at WTVJ in Miami because they carried my WTVJ reports on CNN.
What's wrong with me is that I ask questions based on what anyone can observe. And what I have observed in a casino is that when a player is at one table and the tables are set up as they are at the Mirage and the other "west side of the Strip casinos" that I know of, you can't see the cards on the other tables ESPECIALLY when there are other players.
You, yourself, have said there are limitations. So what are you trying to prove? You can count cards on other tables with limitations? Well whoopee doo. You can count cards on other tables with limitations. Go ahead proclaim yourself champ.
Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XVSRm80WzZk
Congratulations on a long and prestigious career in journalism. That is completely irrelevant to this topic. What you are doing here, is making false accusations, statements and conclusions, about a topic and techniques that you obviously know nothing about.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Actually, I have just exposed your own folly. You've said it yourself -- sometimes you can't see all the cards. We all know other players can get in the way. We know that when cards pass by without being counted that an accurate "count" is not possible. You have continued your absurd assertion that a partial count at best is effective.
Well, buddy, your partial count at a second table in blackjack, is as effective as my controlled throw of two dice after they hit the table.
Just try to prove your case to anyone outside of your fellow "AP believers" and you will fall flat on your face.
There is a reason why my fellow AP's believe what I am stating....because they have first hand knowledge of the subject. They aren't just drawing conclusions and making accusations about something they know nothing about.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Since I am not all that familiar with you and you claim to be such a celebrity, which really has nothing to do with the topic at hand, I did a quick google search.
What I came up with was information that you are a gambling addict. I am not the least bit surprised. That would explain your contempt for AP's that actually make money at the casinos.
In addition, I read an article by the Los Angles Times, eluding to your dishonesty, in the fact that the only 'best buys' that you promote are for companies that paid you. The word that comes to mind is shyster. I guess a career of dishonesty and misleading people has lead to what I have witnessed here, your complete dishonesty and manipulative behavior.
Our discussion is now over. Please move on to your next trolling victim. As a matter of fact, I see no value in anything you may post. I am adding you Singer on my blocked list.
No, there are too many inconsistencies in your own story. You even admit the weaknesses of your so-called ability to count cards at two tables. It's bullshit. I'm finished with you.
There is no LA Times article about "dishonesty." I'm now in the Infomercial business. Best Buys is a paid program. It says so right on the TV screen at the beginning and end of each show as required by federal law.
Fuck off.
That's easily verified by providing a link to the article.Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
Will you post the link, or do you need to be paid for the info?
We need redietz to provide commentary on the word "eluding" especially in this context. I wonder if "alluding" is what he meant. Either way it's quite a reach.
The word is "alluding." And in his previous post, Alan provided a fine example of an expletive to help out Rob.
Editor Bob
P.S. Maybe this will help me get an editing job with Gaming Today. Then I could hire Rob (why not, he's free) and really help him edit his stuff.
Alan,Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan MendelsonI've been dealt a royal four times.Quote:
Originally Posted by RS__
First was at Mandalay on a 50-play machine. Nickels. It paid $10,000.
Second was at Rincon on a progressive that paid about $36,000.
Third was at Bellagio on their $5 progressive. Paid $31,005. I posted the photo here on this forum.
Fourth was at Caesars on a $1 game. I posted the photo here on this forum.
And then my girlfriend was dealt two royals within 24 hours.
Figure the odds. Shit happens.
You also mocked me for getting two $100K royals within 300 hands of playing $25 VP. It happened again. What you're overlooking is that in both cases I had played $1, $2 and $5 video poker -- sometimes for hours -- before I built up the bankroll to play $25 and I got the royals soon after switching to $25 VP.
I also played $1, $2, and $5 video poker sometimes for weeks or months without a royal. The royals just happened to have come when the denomination was $25.
I hit another royal this past week. But it was a 25 cent royal at Arizona Charlies on Boulder Highway. I started with $100 in the machine.
Again, I'm not saying the 18 yo's in a row did not happen. But, surely you will concede that your examples of "shit happens", with dealt royals, RF frequency, and lottery wins are not in the same probability universe as the odds that Dan calculated/provided as to what you saw.
P.S.
Congrats on the latest royal.
Look when I saw 18 Yo's in a row I had no idea what the math was. All I know is that a young guy kept throwing 6/5 and we were amazed. No one stopped to figure any odds.
Good god coach belly, are you incapable of a simple computer search? You really should learn to "google" for yourself instead of a knee jerk reaction of "link?"Quote:
Originally Posted by coach bellyThat's easily verified by providing a link to the article.Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
Will you post the link, or do you need to be paid for the info?
http://articles.latimes.com/2010/oct...media-20101006
Half way down the page, when the discussion turns to your hero Alan:
Alan Mendelson, the onetime business and personal finance reporter for KCAL, spent years telling viewers he could help them find "best buys." But he lost his job in 2006 and has since made his living producing infomercials (many for lawyers) and a weekend "Best Buys" show that airs on KCOP Channel 13. The website for the program promises an expert with a "black belt in shopping" but the bottom line is that Mendelson features only companies that paid to be on the air.
if you remember, earlier in this very thread, Alan offered me (and anyone else living in Vegas) a job. "Earn up to $500/hr with phones sales." I guess we sell him to the local businesses and then he turns around and peddles their product as a "Best Buy" on his TV show. Very honest!
That is your "award winning" 50 year professional Journalist. Did someone say shyster? :rolleyes: At 65, in questionable health he should be retired. Perhaps he needs the money to fuel his gambling addiction. Earlier in this thread didn't he attacked AP play, with the very notion that AP's couldn't earn a living and build a retirement off of AP play? It always comes back to one thing with these guys that are so vehemently opposed to advantage play and advantage players....resentment. They resent that others can successfully make money at the casinos when they can't.
Yes kewlj. It's called TV advertising.
Now please. Put me on ignore because from now on I'm ignoring you.
He used to be a contender.
Not anymore.
And it hurts, it hurts like hell.
"Do not go gentle into that good night,
Old age should burn and rave at close of day;
Rage, rage against the dying of the light."
--- Dylan Thomas
Another meaningful discussion on strategic gambling gets sabotaged by....The Confederacy Of Dunces.
Originally when you told this story on WOV I was under the impression you had no regrets not betting it? I thought that was one of the points you were trying to make, along with random rollers can get lucky too.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
I have to admit that was kinda funny.Quote:
Originally Posted by coach bellyThat's easily verified by providing a link to the article.Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
Will you post the link, or do you need to be paid for the info?
The Wiz wrote, about the alleged 18 yo's:
"18 yo's in a row = 1 in 39,346,408,075,296,500,000,000
Powerball = 1 in 292,201,338
Powerball 2 out of 2 = 1 in 85,381,621,928,990,200
So, it is 460,829 times more likely to buy two Powerball tickets, and win both of them, than to go throw 18 yo's in a row."
OK, so who is more credible:
A disinterested actuary with no dog in the fight who is well respected in the world of gambling math, or
An innumerate with serious health issues who happens to enjoy whatever attention he can muster?
Exactly.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
You made up that number just to prove a point, not realizing just how ridiculous it was. Even people with zero math background or gambling knowledge knew this was near impossible, but YOU didn't, so now you look stupid. You couldn't bring yourself to confess you didn't really know exactly how many yo's in a row were seen because you felt everything you ever said would be in question, so you dug in. I have a feeling it was many yo's during your session, but not in a row.
I get why you dislike AP's and Math guys, they prevent you from fooling everyone with your gambling fish stories.
Quote:
Originally Posted by MisterV
I didn't know John Paulos' lingo had seeped into the general culture. Good for him. Good for you if you've read him.
This us funny. The collection of unverifiable, anonymous "AP's" here claim what Alan says he witnessed is a lie and impossible, while they also claim to believe in the math.
Well guys, the math says 18 yos in a row is possible. So why don't you believe it? Oh....because Alan made a fool out of that losing AP on the dice problem who begs forum members for money--the Wiz. Glad that's settled.
If kew really wants to take a bet that he can accurately count 2 tables simultaneously at a specific casino and at any two tables he chooses, I'll take some of that. Just don't sneeze on the money or get any blood on it please.
Yes, and I responded to that. I don't need a bet to meet up with someone. I have met with many people from WOV and expected nothing. You haven't said anything specific for there to be a bet. You just don't believe people can make a living from advantage play.Quote:
Originally Posted by blackholeI reached out to you, letting you know I was going to be in Vegas for 12 days which you confirmed you knew about, but had several reasons for not meeting up with me.Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolf
I no doubt would have taken you and your girlfriend out for a classy dinner. We could have shared lots during that time.
If you felt the need to lay down a bet to make your time worthwhile, we could have discussed the conditions in person. If I agreed to the conditions, I can assure I had access to more than enough money to cover any bet you wanted.
A load of AP crap axel, and everyone sees it.Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolfYes, and I responded to that. I don't need a bet to meet up with someone. I have met with many people from WOV and expected nothing. You haven't said anything specific for there to be a bet. You just don't believe people can make a living from advantage play.Quote:
Originally Posted by blackholeI reached out to you, letting you know I was going to be in Vegas for 12 days which you confirmed you knew about, but had several reasons for not meeting up with me.Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolf
I no doubt would have taken you and your girlfriend out for a classy dinner. We could have shared lots during that time.
If you felt the need to lay down a bet to make your time worthwhile, we could have discussed the conditions in person. If I agreed to the conditions, I can assure I had access to more than enough money to cover any bet you wanted.
You often go off about people not accepting you challenges blah blah blah, but then someone comes along and does and you flop out a pile of stupid, cowardly excuses why you just can't do it right now. And all that does is confirm how APs are nothing but losing, addicted problem gamblers....you know, just like wizard proved he was. It don't get more real than that! As they say.
Do what right now? Nothing has been presented to me.Quote:
Originally Posted by Rob.SingerA load of AP crap axel, and everyone sees it.Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolfYes, and I responded to that. I don't need a bet to meet up with someone. I have met with many people from WOV and expected nothing. You haven't said anything specific for there to be a bet. You just don't believe people can make a living from advantage play.Quote:
Originally Posted by blackhole
You often go off about people not accepting you challenges blah blah blah, but then someone comes along and does and you flop out a pile of stupid, cowardly excuses why you just can't do it right now. And all that does is confirm how APs are nothing but losing, addicted problem gamblers....you know, just like wizard proved he was. It don't get more real than that! As they say.
I do challenge you to prove to me your boldface lie that you had someone following me around or whatever.
I never heard this one. Rob claimed to have people following you around? Were you being tailed by a Winnebago or a Hellcat?
He said somthing to that effect on this or onther thread on this forum. It is totlal bullshit and its funny that he only mentioned it just after I started posting here.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
Rob, in case you're reading this, may I suggest a book by my brother-in-law? It'll help you out. It was written back when both you and I were hanging in Las Vegas, so it may be a bit dated, but so are we.
It's Serious Surveillance for the Private Investigator. The author is Bob Bruno. Happy reading!!
For the same reason I don't predict that at exactly 9PM tonight an asteroid will smash into the strip and blow Paradise to, well, paradise.Quote:
Originally Posted by Rob.Singer
While most anything could happen, we who call ourselves educated like to inject a bit of reality into the equation.
I find that an understanding of math leads to a marked decrease in confusion and superstition.
You must be an Advantage player.Quote:
Originally Posted by MisterVFor the same reason I don't predict that at exactly 9PM tonight an asteroid will smash into the strip and blow Paradise to, well, paradise.Quote:
Originally Posted by Rob.Singer
While most anything could happen, we who call ourselves educated like to inject a bit of reality into the equation.
I find that an understanding of math leads to a marked decrease in confusion and superstition.
Nah, I'm just a ploppie, but contrary to the assertions of some I do in fact believe that AP's really do exist, and that they can make a living via casino gambling.
I choose not to go down the AP path because it is too much like work, in fact it WOULD be work; I gamble in part to escape from the pressures of my job, not to immerse myself in them.
If the first die was a 6, what are the odds the second die is a five? Oh sorry--wrong thread.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Also Rodney Dangerfield in Back to SchoolQuote:
Originally Posted by MisterV
That was good, regnis. He passed with all D's and an A from Hot Lips.Quote:
Originally Posted by regnisAlso Rodney Dangerfield in Back to SchoolQuote:
Originally Posted by MisterV
The key to the above "ap statement" is "or whatever". It fits in rather nicely with the other ap's here not knowing a whole lot of what they're talking about.Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolfDo what right now? Nothing has been presented to me.Quote:
Originally Posted by Rob.SingerA load of AP crap axel, and everyone sees it.Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolf
You often go off about people not accepting you challenges blah blah blah, but then someone comes along and does and you flop out a pile of stupid, cowardly excuses why you just can't do it right now. And all that does is confirm how APs are nothing but losing, addicted problem gamblers....you know, just like wizard proved he was. It don't get more real than that! As they say.
I do challenge you to prove to me your boldface lie that you had someone following me around or whatever.
But please splain. You're claiming I had some anonymous internet hack followed around (or whatever :) ) for the purpose of what? You do know that all you're doing is giving red "pr packet" ietz an opportunity to serve up more of his not so clever/rarely humorous remarks that are laced with corn, correct?
Rob, seriously do you need any help with that survey of the 11,000 vpfree members regarding you and your systems.? I can help you write or edit the survey questions. Certainly that kind of crowd will have oodles of great stuff to say about you and lay all of the critics to rest.Quote:
Originally Posted by Rob.SingerThe key to the above "ap statement" is "or whatever". It fits in rather nicely with the other ap's here not knowing a whole lot of what they're talking about.Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolfDo what right now? Nothing has been presented to me.Quote:
Originally Posted by Rob.Singer
I do challenge you to prove to me your boldface lie that you had someone following me around or whatever.
But please splain. You're claiming I had some anonymous internet hack followed around (or whatever :) ) for the purpose of what? You do know that all you're doing is giving red "pr packet" ietz an opportunity to serve up more of his not so clever/rarely humorous remarks that are laced with corn, correct?
Maybe everyone here could chip in and help Alan with the project. I happen to know a dude who runs a university survey center. Maybe he could also help you write up the proper questions.
First of all, 18 was the number of elevens thrown. I didn't fabricate the number.Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolfOriginally when you told this story on WOV I was under the impression you had no regrets not betting it? I thought that was one of the points you were trying to make, along with random rollers can get lucky too.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Secondly, had I known "the next roll" would be an 11 I would have bet the 11. But I didn't know.
I am not a horn bettor, nor am I a hardways better. I don't have to remind you that the 11 is a one roll bet? Like other players who follow the MATH of the game, like APs, I limit my betting to the bets with the lower house edges. (I do make exceptions for the Bonus Bets because they offer a chance for a big payout and I've had good luck with them.)
The shooter and his buddy I don't think even had odds on the pass line bets. They were young guys.
Yes this random shooter had quite a run. Yes in hindsight I wish I had thrown a dollar or five dollars on the yo. But would you think another Yo was coming? I didn't.
[QUOTE=Rob.Singer;50928]If kew really wants to take a bet that he can accurately count 2 tables simultaneously at a specific casino I'll take some of that.QUOTE]
Be very careful about booking bets with Singer. He's a known bet welsher.
Another dumass statement from a member of the confederacy of dunces. AP's don't make craps bets with lower house edges. They are negative expectation sucker bets fit only for the dunces.
Thanks for the warning Mickey. I am aware of Singer's bet welshing history and I want nothing to do with this vile, negative excuse of a person.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimmBe very careful about booking bets with Singer. He's a known bet welsher.Quote:
Originally Posted by Rob.Singer
In addition, while I would consider a wager with someone challenging that I am a professional AP....proof of tax documents....IF the wager was worthwhile to me, I would never involve myself with any kind of wager that involved any kind of demonstration of my abilities in a casino. I work too hard at preserving my longevity to risk drawing that kind of attention, simply to satisfy someone on an internet message board. Anyone even suggesting that of me or any other AP, clearly has no understanding of what it is to be an AP, and in particular what it is to be a blackjack AP.
Quotes from AxelWolf responding to my offer to meet up with me.Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolfYes, and I responded to that. I don't need a bet to meet up with someone. I have met with many people from WOV and expected nothing. You haven't said anything specific for there to be a bet. You just don't believe people can make a living from advantage play.Quote:
Originally Posted by blackholeI reached out to you, letting you know I was going to be in Vegas for 12 days which you confirmed you knew about, but had several reasons for not meeting up with me.Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolf
I no doubt would have taken you and your girlfriend out for a classy dinner. We could have shared lots during that time.
If you felt the need to lay down a bet to make your time worthwhile, we could have discussed the conditions in person. If I agreed to the conditions, I can assure I had access to more than enough money to cover any bet you wanted.
“I wanted to think about the risks VS rewards and how convenient it would be for me. You haven't been a fan of mine or AP in general. I will go so far as to say, you have been kinda nasty at times.”
“Someone more friendly than you would probably understand if something came up”
“especially given your derision for AP(s).”
“people who I believe have nothing but good intentions, people whom I get the sense they like me.”
“I'm not shy(*note to AM) and I can handle myself just fine in confrontational situations, but I'm not going to go out of my way to engage in that sort of stuff when there is nothing to gain and perhaps something to lose.”
The back and forth rhetoric that takes place on an anonymous forum, is nothing more than obvious doubts created by un-proven anonymous alleged claims.
After sharing several personal messages with me via WOV, where we both shared a fair amount of personal information, considering my age, along with the fact that I was in Vegas with my wife and two other couples for twelve days; and just the fact that you could or even would consider the possibility of a confrontational situation, bad intentions, or perhaps something to lose just confirms at least for me, my assumptions and first impressions of you and your claims were probably correct.
By the way, your comment that “some people make a killing from AP (like Don Johnson)” is a terrible example. Any card-counter willing to risk a boat load of money, able to get special rule changes from casinos could have done the same thing. How's that AP'ing working out for him today? No casino wants to play him by the same rules, and now don't even want any of his action regardless. Similar to what shithead Phil Ivey did with baccarat. Would you know if Pin-Head Ivey is broke yet?
Johnson exploited loss rebates which the confederacy of dunces doesn't believe in. And I just don't see what good could come out of meeting up with a darksider like bh.
This all sounds not only reasonable, but well thought out to me.Quote:
Originally Posted by blackhole
I don't think you non-AP guys can comprehend what it is to be an AP for a living. We play against an industry hell bent on stopping us. There is little benefit to just meeting up with people from a message board just to meet up. If you are considering some sort of partnership or team play, that is one thing. But to just meet up with someone from a message board, especially people that have demonstrated they are anti-AP, makes zero sense. There is much more risk than reward. As a matter of fact, I don't see any reward. :confused: Which is why I remain, intensely private.
Of course we could throw out the window all the risk and intensely private lifestyle safeguarded by AP's if a bet is involved you think you could win. Of course under those conditions it would be considered AP'ing and everything you just said gets thrown out the window. Yet, meeting up with strangers from a message board just because they say they want to join your crew is safe. You would have a safer chance of meeting up with me, than someone desperate to make a buck. You AP's always end up contradicting yourselves in foolish ways. I'm sure if I lived in Vegas with all the information you gave on forums, you would be the easiest to locate if I wanted to waste the time. Didn't you once say you were robbed because of your postings on forums? Whoever robbed you found you.Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
Mickey, you, and the rest of you AP's flapping your loose lips on message boards, living in fantasy and denial of your totally insecure future are full blown mental patients.
Let me repeat myself here ..."After sharing several personal messages with me via WOV, where we both shared a fair amount of personal information, considering my age, along with the fact that I was in Vegas with my wife and two other couples for twelve days; and just the fact that you could or even would consider the possibility of a confrontational situation, bad intentions, or perhaps something to lose just confirms at least for me, my assumptions and first impressions of you and your claims were probably correct."
Just quoting what Axel said was just another attempt at twisting the facts to fit your narrative. Nothing less was expected.
Frank Kneeland met up with me and my son for lunch. Frank is one of the greatest VP APs of all time.
That's when he told us he never NEVER plays with his own money.
I think that's the #1 rule of true, successful APs.
You misread my post. I don't bet on the 11 because it has a HIGH house edge. I have been criticized and asked repeatedly why I didn't bet on the Yo when that shooter had his string of 18 yos in a row. Well, each ONE ROLL bet on the 11 has one of the highest house edges of any bet in craps. If an AP wouldn't bet the Yo (it is called a "crazy crapper bet") why should I make a bet on the Yo?Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
The phrase "see a yo, bet a yo" is not the strategy of an AP, is it?
So I don't understand why any of the so-called APs would ever, EVER criticize me for not betting the Yo after seeing a yo... even after seeing 17 of them in a row.
I guess only armchair quarterbacks would suggest that I should have bet the yo after seeing a yo. APs wouldn't bet it, and I wouldn't bet it.
What do APs bet at craps? Ask your buddy the Wizard. He says bet the pass with full odds. It's negative expectation yes, but it has the lowest house edge.
Ask even Frank Scoblete. He doesn't bet the Yo either. He bets pass and two come bets with full odds -- again bets with the lowest house edge.
Mickey, you don't play craps, do you? Do they have it at the bars in Montana?
That's mainly because he was working for someone else and he was making far less EV by getting a salary, hourly or small percentage. The person he was working for was making most of the money. I find it hard to believe he never used his own money on any play ever. I have seen him playing stuff where he would be foolish not to take 100% of his own action(almost impossible to lose) unless that's the deal he made before he ever started.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
If anyone ever asks you to put up money(back them) where they get a freeroll percentage DONT DO IT unless you know exactly what you are doing. Freerolls are tricky especially on high variance games. You can easily turn a +EV situation into a -EV situation for the backer.
Better believe it. The most famous words ever to come from an AP: "I never use my own money." And what does that tell ya, bunky, about how much faith he has in his own AP system?Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolfThat's mainly because he was working for someone else and he was making far less EV by getting a salary, hourly or small percentage. The person he was working for was making most of the money. I find it hard to believe he never used his own money on any play ever.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Oh, and by the way: HE CONFIRMED THIS ONLINE HERE AND ON OTHER FORUMS (AFTER I MADE IT PUBLIC, WITH HIS PERMISSION) AND IN OTHER CONVERSATIONS WITH OTHERS. ASK ROB.
edited to add: BOOM
Sounds like his fame / reputation has attracted "investors" with deep pockets who are willing to pay him for him to play VP on their behalf.
Good result for Kneeland, as his own funds are not at risk, and he gets a steady pay check win, lose or draw.
Plus it helps him avoid the variance, the wide swings, inherent in all casino games.
If you only knew the truth.Quote:
Originally Posted by MisterV
You wrote that "he told us he never NEVER plays with his own money. "
OK, so whose money is he using, if not his own?
What arrangement for compensation is he playing under?
Yeah but it's going to make the paperwork a little tricky. All the hand pay tax forms are going to be in his name, not the "investors".Quote:
Originally Posted by MisterV
Frank indeed was funded and hired players to work for the money people. He was paid a fee. He told me he wouldn't play anything with his own money including those coveted progressives that APs go gaga over. I don't want to say more than that because I'm privy to some personal information.
Kewlj has raised a point I never thought of. How were those W2Gs handled not only by him but also the hired team members? In all these years I've never heard about that or considered it. But it is something that must have a plan. What a mess if the winner didn't have a valid ID?
Alan, if you mention this to support an argument that AP does not exist, wouldn't the fact that Kneeland formed a team of VP players who played using an investor's money imply that AP does indeed exist, at least in the mind of the investor?
Sure AP existed for Frank... as long as it wasn't his money. LOL