It's a toss between Rob and Alex W, the 2 sharps that I'd like to hear on GWAE. Comrade is way down on the list :)
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It's a toss between Rob and Alex W, the 2 sharps that I'd like to hear on GWAE. Comrade is way down on the list :)
Okay Alex W is slightly ahead of Argentino :)Quote:
Originally Posted by Ozzy
LOLOLOLOL! You are the ignorant one for thinking your dumb ass shit will fly. Get a clue. Vaccaro and Lupo were important to you but now they are not? Flip,flop,flip,flop,flip,flop.... You've got more routes than Greyhound Bus Lines.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietzAm I calling Fezzik a liar? LOL. I'm calling him, on this, an optimistic bullshitter with a little bit of self-serving in there.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
I was doing it, and mainly to kill time. So if you want me to call Fezzik a liar, sure, happy to do so. I'd estimate that I made a couple thousand a year during its heyday. It's no sure thing -- there are only really 12 weeks in a college football season. I'd throw a couple hundred a week at it, and I'd say the most I made any given year was maybe 5K or a little more. I might have made 7K or 8K one year. I did it to kill time, not as some income staple. I lost money on it at least one year, but it wasn't a lot, less than 2K.
Mickey, you simply don't know anything. I was being kind in my estimate of how many people were doing this. Maybe one person in 20 in the sports book at the Stardust was doing this. Why would Vacarro or Lupo bother to correct Fezzik? What would be the percentage in doing so? And do you really think somebody like Vacarro or Lupo listens to GWAE regularly? These guys are semi-legends.
You just have no knowledge, man. It didn't take a Leonardo da AP to do the parlay card thing. Anybody with half a brain, presented with these scenarios, would be doing it a couple of weeks or a month into the opportunity. It's an OBVIOUS thing to do. Obvious, easy, requiring very little expertise other than being able to invest a few dollars and a little squinting at cards.
I mean, really, you're saying that you never figured out to do it?
Then what the hell do you APs do? Sit and stare at things and hope some simple math saves the day? I'm telling you this is one of the most OBVIOUS, EASY, and UBIQUITOUS angles in sports betting. And it has been since parlay cards were invented. If people like you, Witteles, kewlJ, Seed, Axelwolf never did it, it would suggest you were all, to be politically incorrect, a bit on the tard side.
Mickey, you just do not know what you are talking about. It's disturbing. I can sit down with anybody who bet serious amounts in the 80's and early 90's, mention this, and they will know exactly what I'm talking about. It was no secret, no big AP play. For the books, it was the cost of business of putting parlay cards out on Tuesday and even Wednesday morning. It always has been.
You just have no perspective and very little knowledge. Jesus.
I had a brief email exchange with Munch. Not with Dancer. I received no follow-up emails. I'll be in Las Vegas April 17-21. If you want me to wing it then in an interview with them, go ahead and set it up. I have no qualms. I would think anybody popularizing the Bet Bash thing might have some reservations about asking me some stuff. Can you imagine if casinos invited card counters for "Counting Bash?" or machine players for "AP Bash?" What would counters and machine players say was going on? A helpful exchange of useful info between players? I think not. LOL.
I'll also be in LV during July with an East Coast Mafia expert to give a semi-historical tour for The Gangster Chronicles. If GWAE would like to do anything then, great. pass it along. You gotta realize -- GWAE and LVA were very late to the sports betting party. They are not top flight experts. I've read LVA almost since its inception -- they kind of staggered into the sports betting scene very late.
But thanks for admitting you were just a small potatoes bettor. That took courage.
Ditz, when you get up every morning you should say over and over again a thousand times"Mickey knows nothing, Mickey knows nothing, Mickey knows nothing." Then pat your belly and spin around 3 times. That will make all your dreams will come true.
How the hell was I or anyone else supposed to know about parlay cards and dead numbers when we weren't around it? I wasn't a sports bettor. I hung out in other areas of the casino. Did they send out flyers? "Extra! Extra! AP's everywhere read all about it!"
I know over 100 machine plays. How many do you know? You mean you don't know any? WTF? How retarded are you? It's right in front of your eyes. You've been walking right by those machines for 40 years? And you didn't know? Damn, you are one dumb ass motherfucker. (Do you see how easy that game is to play, ditz?)
Spank and Capt. Jack are sharp enough to know machine plays. You ain't.
Now, I do recall following a thread on WOV about half point parlay cards several years ago. I think those guys were working dead numbers too. Their successes were documented in real time. IIRC, they wound up having a hell of a time getting the books to take the bets. They wound up having to make small bets per card and spreading them around all over Vegas. Axel could probably shed some light on it.
You won't interact with Axel anymore (who has done absolutely nothing to cause you to disrespect him). Why? It's because axel knows to much about sports betting angles. You don't like that. His questions are to tough for you to answer. So you took the chickenshit way out and said you will ignore him. BOC! BOC! BOC! BOCOCK!!!
For the record, did you, the great Robert Dietz, think up playing dead numbers on parlay cards all by yourself? Are you challenging Fezzik on that issue? Are you saying you invented the parlay card/dead number thing without any information from anyone else. Totally on your own?
You got something else wrong in your post. You said Vaccaro and Lupo weren't interested in GWAE. I wasn't talking about GWAE. I was talking about VSIN.
I gave you the information to contact GWAE. You were on your own from there to make arrangements. So don't tell me to make any fucking arrangements for you, numskull. Make your own fucking arrangements. What an idiot.
Ditz, you probably don't know it but GWAE will be shutting down in a few months. It's become harder and harder for them to find guests. It's evident by to many "Mailbag" shows of late. They've ran through everyone who is anyone in the gambling world. Thats why it's strange to me that they didn't get back to you. With them being hard up for guests I would think you would be a shoe in. You must not have made a very good impression on Munchkin.
I've done 5 episodes on GWAE. I'm willing to do one more before they shut down. So, Ditz, go ahead, contact them and set it up for me. ROTFLMAO!!
You don't have to wait to do it on a podcast. You can do it right here in real time. But you've been asked for years to do it and won't.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimmYou don't have to wait to do it on a podcast. You can do it right here in real time. But you've been asked for years to do it and won't.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
Nobody who knows what they're doing could have missed the frozen numbers, staggered in time angle. Did I think it up by myself? Well, yes. I didn't need anybody to point it out. The same way that when I look at the sky, I see blue, and I assume everyone else sees blue, too. I don't have to be told to see blue.
Mickey, this is one of those moments when I can't believe how dense you are, and I wonder about your alleged machine exploits, which I have no expertise to judge. The problem isn't so much your sports betting savvy; you never claimed to be a sports betting expert. The problem is that you don't know how to assign reality to what you hear. You just assume things and think you're making some kind of valid, reasonable judgements, and you don't know anything.
You really have no clue. And you don't know you have no clue. Now I have no idea if anything you say outside of a very narrow machine math has any credibility. I always assumed it did, but that may have been a massive error on my part. I gave you some kind of halo effect credit for knowing what you were talking about, and evidently it's not at all justified.
If you think I don't know what I'm talking about, show up in LV with a list of questions and hire a videographer. Fire them at me and I'll answer on the spot extemporaneously. Embarrass me. Demonstrate I'm not correct. Get it on video. Then slap it on Youtube for the world to see.
Or else hide in Montana and bullshit about sports betting for the next decade.
It is quite clear that Redietz has never really been a sport-bettor. He has just read a ton of vegas shit in books and created his own accounts of being there. Written down names of people we can't contact. References printed materials we can't reference. (While constantly ridiculing anything online)
He ridiculed EV when every sharp bettor knows better. He ridicules everyone. It has become beyond clear that he is a big fucking phoney. He is never going to get on GWAE or anything like that because to be put on the spot would mean his lies are clear. No, he sits at his chair and lashes out when people talk about things over his head and beyond the bullshit stories he picked up reading in the library.
He is a pathetic tout. Even the quintessential picture with the fancy car is meh. The $500 overdue tax bill shows his financial situation. How else could you be so into sports betting yet know so little about contemporary sportsbetting?
Again it is beyond clear. The way he puts himself forth, the condescension, these are all hallmarks of a faker. Those tell-tale signs. That is what touts do.
Mickey, stop arguing with this fool.
What is "East Coast Mafia" ? Is this a new boy band? WTF is Redietz even going on about.
For what it is worth, I heard of the parlay angle at some point in my life. Paper tickets printed once earlier in the week that have weak lines which then become apparent. ;)
Geez, reading his last post - Classic bullshitter. Keeps going on and on trying beyond hard to discredit Mickey but having nothing to work with. That is the goto tactic for the guilty being accused.
People, it is official. Redietz has been exposed.
Yeah, that would explain the offering to answer unknown questions extemporaneously. Makes perfect sense. Explains the Who's Who in Sports Gambling inclusion. Explains being the only person in the history of "Tipsters or Gypsters?" to win back-to-back college football profit titles and three in five years. Mickey posted one of those years here in the retro Road Trip thread. Thanks, mickey.Quote:
Originally Posted by accountinquestion
Tell you what, account, why don't you come to Las Vegas and interview me. Hell, I'll pay for the videographer. Come on down, baby! It'll be a blast. I'll even pick up your hotel tab.
You want April, July, or another time in the next couple of months?
You know what? We could even do it like a job interview. Mickey, account, and a neutral party, maybe kewlJ, sitting in three chairs, asking me questions with no prep on my part. We could recruit Todd, hell, somebody recruit Singer. It'll be a grand old time.
Exciting stuff.
Can't wait to hear account's response. Email me, account.
IntegritySports@aol.com. Don't be shy.
More bluffing bullshit. I might do it except I have no reason to want to dox myself. Outside of that I'd call your bullshit bluff and let you do a singer on us. None of this shit you quote overcomes the other evidence taken as a whole. It is a story.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietzYeah, that would explain the offering to answer unknown questions extemporaneously. Makes perfect sense. Explains the Who's Who in Sports Gambling inclusion. Explains being the only person in the history of "Tipsters or Gypsters?" to win back-to-back college football profit titles and three in five years. Mickey posted one of those years here in the retro Road Trip thread. Thanks, mickey.Quote:
Originally Posted by accountinquestion
Tell you what, account, why don't you come to Las Vegas and interview me. Hell, I'll pay for the videographer. Come on down, baby! It'll be a blast. I'll even pick up your hotel tab.
You want April, July, or another time in the next couple of months?
You know what? We could even do it like a job interview. Mickey, account, and a neutral party, maybe kewlJ, sitting in three chairs, asking me questions with no prep on my part. We could recruit Todd, hell, somebody recruit Singer. It'll be a grand old time.
Exciting stuff.
Can't wait to hear account's response. Email me, account.
IntegritySports@aol.com. Don't be shy.
I assume you'd do this via recorded phone interview?
He acts as if I want to even go to vegas. Last time bellagio have me 3 nights fountain view but I had rooms otherwise so I only used room the last night. APs in here wont be impressed but lol "redietz's world" (tm)
Not taking sides but I can tell you this was being done in the early to mid 80’s in PA with local wannabe books running cards. It didn’t take a genius to see lines that were way off later in the week due to injuries, weather or just mistakes.
It was a different world back then in regards to information being available and these cards were printed late Sunday or early Monday to get them out to the runners who sold them at every office, factory or other workplace in those days. So every week there were lines that were off 2-3 points by Saturday when the cards had to be turned in. Sometimes even more if a major injury was reported.
You couldn’t bet much on them and still needed to be a minimum of 3 or 4 teams so I’m not sure we had much of an advantage but saying ANYONE was the first to figure this out is crazy. It wasn’t hard to see or figure out.
I could write a post as long as RED’s on these cards but just wanted to post this after reading this debate. Especially about actually getting paid when you hit something decent, many people behind the scenes just disappeared when some sap hit a 10 team parlay. Leaving the seller to say “sorry”.
That's what I mean, Boz. Every couple of years, someone comes out of the woodwork and claims they invented the wheel. It's hilarious. Like coming up with a way to attack these things required a PhD (which my late wife had two of, by the way). Every sports bettor with a brain attacked them.
The other comparable nonsense was when certain teasers were labeled "Wong teasers." And Wong's not even the guy's name, but I guess he was shooting for Asian intellectual stereotyping or something. Who the hell decided they were "Wong teasers?" Wong!?!
The teaser strategy pre-dated Wong by decades. If you read Larry Merchant's "National Football Lottery" -- circa 1972 -- it's clear he's emphasizing certain kinds of teasers as opposed to others. "Wong," in his infinite wisdom, basically outed the play and the consequences were that teaser odds changed for the worse.
Just as with Fezzik. Why even blather on about the frozen line, staggered in time thing? All you do is get every civilian to try it, which means more games will be made unavailable on the parlay cards late in the week. He did no one any favors except the books.
I feel badly that account and mickey crimm don't have the courage of their convictions. All I can do is make myself available to answer questions I'm unprepared for, and give them the opportunity to make an ass out of me on video. And I'll pay for account's room!
Boz, any suggestions? Should I throw in a hooker or something to sweeten the deal for them? Or maybe an ice cream cone for account?
FYI -- The Gangster Chronicles is an IHeartRadio series being helmed by George Anastasia, who is a journalist with absolutely impeccable credentials. I am honored to be involved at any level with the series.
I have been offered, but I wasn't interested, I never have been. I actually used to be angry there was even such a show on the air. The people who started the show had other things they wanted to sell and promote, I just wanted to beat the casinos.Quote:
Originally Posted by Ozzy
Never say never, but at this time I haven't any interest. I'm not much for giving out current information, therefore I would be only talking about past plays and situations. They say, "Those who forget the past are doomed to repeat it". As an advantage player, that's what I'm hoping for, so it would be tricky for me to decide what to even talk about. I have only ever talked about a few plays publicly.
Perhaps some podcast, someday, somewhere when the benefit outweighs my perception of the disadvantages. Nowadays, there's no doubt the disadvantages are negligible, but I still have to live with my conscious knowing I did something that I have been against from the very beginning. Hmmm... If you can't beat 'em…join 'em. How much for the rights to the podcast? I'm suddenly interested.
You accused me of being lazy etc, but let me point out, I have told you and mentioned numerous times that I was betting the parlays back in the early 2000s and on and off since.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
Wasn't it reported on WoV in the last week that GWAE will be ending in the next couple months? Or at least Rickard and Bob stepping down as hosts. So if Redietz wants to get on or Axel decides "what the hell", you should get to it. :rolleyes:
My personal thoughts mirror Axelwolf's. I was asked twice by Munchkin if I has any interest, the first way back on Norm's blackjack forum, probably 2014 or so. I just saw or see no benefit. I wouldn't say anything specific about how I have been able to play one location, and that is the only thing that sets me apart from dozens of other card counters. I have shared some of these things on occasion on forums, but I set the narrative and decide what I want to say and when. I wouldn't want to be in a position where I was asked a question I wouldn't answer. I don't think that is fair to the show.
Incredibly, since I was first asked there have been a number of card counters that have been on GWAE, and many of us have very similar histories, right down to staring out with very low limit play and building a bankroll. It is to the point now, that I am like, "oh they have another card counter on?" :D
Axelwolf, can I ask you a simple question? Do you believe Redietz has made a living involved with sports betting for the last 30-40 years as he has claimed?Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolf
I do. There are some inconsistencies, but basically, on my knows what he is talking about vs just talking meter, redietz passes to my satisfaction. Plus, I don't know that anyone would carry on a charade for decades other than Ron Singer, who has some issues.
Now if you don't believe it, and/or he doesn't pass your 'test', it is fine that you say so and challenge him.
But I feel like you and mickey and a few others believes his basic claim, but are really giving him a hard time right now because of dislikes and ego.
I mean comments like "You accused me of being lazy etc" or AccountinQuestion actually saying he finds redietz condescending, or mickey obviously having a chip on his shoulder after redietz stupid comment about social security and welfare, just makes me think you guys are just out to belittle him and discredit him, more so that that you actually dis-believe him. Just feels like egos come in to play. Maybe I am wrong.
Seems to me that sports betting could be sort of an unwitting "trap" for fans of the game; let me explain.
My buddy and I love NFL games; I don't bet, I just want to have an entertaining game.
He in contrast bets and in doing so seems unable to enjoy the game as it is played out, as he now is financially invested in only one outcome.
Over time he has pretty much stopped wanting to watch the games, and instead he spends time pouring over info, betting, and tracking his myriad bets.
Fun if you enjoy it I suppose, but not my cuppa.
KJ, give up on the Social Security argument. It's not true. Never has been true. Never will be true. After all the shit I've been called on this forum you think the SS thing bothers me? Get a fucking clue, dude. What IS true is your ability to conjure up any kind of unadulterated bullshit to fit your false narratives.Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJAxelwolf, can I ask you a simple question? Do you believe Redietz has made a living involved with sports betting for the last 30-40 years as he has claimed?Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolf
I do. There are some inconsistencies, but basically, on my knows what he is talking about vs just talking meter, redietz passes to my satisfaction. Plus, I don't know that anyone would carry on a charade for decades other than Ron Singer, who has some issues.
Now if you don't believe it, and/or he doesn't pass your 'test', it is fine that you say so and challenge him.
But I feel like you and mickey and a few others believes his basic claim, but are really giving him a hard time right now because of dislikes and ego.
I mean comments like "You accused me of being lazy etc" or AccountinQuestion actually saying he finds redietz condescending, or mickey obviously having a chip on his shoulder after redietz stupid comment about social security and welfare, just makes me think you guys are just out to belittle him and discredit him, more so that that you actually dis-believe him. Just feels like egos come in to play. Maybe I am wrong.
I take Boz' word for it. You, on the other hand, have no credibility. You've ruined your reputation here. Sad. So when you say something is true no one can take your word for it.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
Quote:
Originally Posted by redietzYeah, that would explain the offering to answer unknown questions extemporaneously. Makes perfect sense. Explains the Who's Who in Sports Gambling inclusion. Explains being the only person in the history of "Tipsters or Gypsters?" to win back-to-back college football profit titles and three in five years. Mickey posted one of those years here in the retro Road Trip thread. Thanks, mickey.Quote:
Originally Posted by accountinquestion
Tell you what, account, why don't you come to Las Vegas and interview me. Hell, I'll pay for the videographer. Come on down, baby! It'll be a blast. I'll even pick up your hotel tab.
You want April, July, or another time in the next couple of months?
You know what? We could even do it like a job interview. Mickey, account, and a neutral party, maybe kewlJ, sitting in three chairs, asking me questions with no prep on my part. We could recruit Todd, hell, somebody recruit Singer. It'll be a grand old time.
Exciting stuff.
Can't wait to hear account's response. Email me, account.
IntegritySports@aol.com. Don't be shy.
So you want to answer questions formulated by people that are not professional sports bettors? What's up with that? How about you field questions by heavy hitters like Fezzik, Spanky and Capt. Jack Andrews? Would you still do the interview if they were sitting in the three chairs?
Maybe I can arrange it. Just say the word.
Ok, mickey. whatever you say. Must just be a co-incidence that you have been on this forum with Redietz since the day I joined and presumably this forum and others with him for much longer and never said boo about his claims, as soon as he made that stupid comment, you have gone after him.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
hey look we all, myself included take offense at things sometimes.
He's avoiding you, axel. Your questions are to tough.Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolfYou accused me of being lazy etc, but let me point out, I have told you and mentioned numerous times that I was betting the parlays back in the early 2000s and on and off since.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
I am a sports fan MrV. Always have been. Of course I have my teams that I am passionate about Eagles, Phillies, Villanova basketball. But other than that I watch let's say football of college basketball when my teams aren't involved. During football season, I watch football 12 hours a day every Saturday and Sunday. But when a bad Atlanta Falcons are on TV playing a bad Carolina Panthers team, or a bad Chicago Bears team are playing a bad Washington (I guess commanders) team, or a 8pm Saturday evening (11pm east coast time) when a losing Stanford is playing Cal, it becomes harder to watch. But with a little 'action' on the game, all of the sudden it is interesting again. :DQuote:
Originally Posted by MisterV
I can guarantee that since the expansion of sports betting available online and in more states, there are more "fans" of these games, or maybe more accurately fans of the dollar watching these game. And that is all the leagues and networks care about, more people watching. Doesn't matter why.
As I have said many times, my sports wagering is entertainment to me. If I place a handful of wagers, lets say 15, $100 wagers over a weekend, that is an expected loss of less than $75. that is the cost of dinner and a movie. THAT is what entertainment is. :cool:
Now if I wanted to get serious about sports betting and wanted to seriously try make money, I don't know if I could or not, but I sure as hell could do better than I do as a recreational sports better betting for entertainment. For starters I would stay away from most games that I bet now, just because they are on TV and focus more some of the things that might make plays +EV.
Give it up, KJ. You are just stupid wrong. That was just a stupid comment by him meant to get a dig in on me. It's not worth arguing about. He was clutching at straws, anything to slight me. But he has been doing that for a few years now. It amazes me how you read his posts about me and you read my posts about him and you only see me as the attacker. It says a lot about you. How fucking biased you are.Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJOk, mickey. whatever you say. Must just be a co-incidence that you have been on this forum with Redietz since the day I joined and presumably this forum and others with him for much longer and never said boo about his claims, as soon as he made that stupid comment, you have gone after him.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
hey look we all, myself included take offense at things sometimes.
You are not attacking him?? :cool:Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
I didn't say you were the only one throwing out attacks. Redietz is too. News flash: It takes 2 parties for these attacks or fights to keep going back and forth. Same situation as Maxpen. It takes two of you. You and Maxpen both said things I took offense at and both said things to/about each other that I don't believe either of you believed were true. So I more or less stayed out.
The difference here is the ganging up. Whether you know it or not mickey, and I suspect you do, there are people that follow your lead. And in this case it means they have jumped on board attacking redietz, because they don't like him for some reason, probably completely different that why you don't like him. That is ganging up. A bullying practice and I am not a fan.
No one is doing it because of me. Redietz didn't attack just me. He made a full on frontal assault on AP's. He even included you. What skin is it off his back if others want to learn something about sports betting? He's coming with one insult after another and people just ain't going to take it from him. He brought it on himself. If you don't want "the gang" on your ass then don't insult them.Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJYou are not attacking him?? :cool:Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
I didn't say you were the only one throwing out attacks. Redietz is too. News flash: It takes 2 parties for these attacks or fights to keep going back and forth. Same situation as Maxpen. It takes two of you. You and Maxpen both said things I took offense at and both said things to/about each other that I don't believe either of you believed were true. So I more or less stayed out.
The difference here is the ganging up. Whether you know it or not mickey, and I suspect you do, there are people that follow your lead. And in this case it means they have jumped on board attacking redietz, because they don't like him for some reason, probably completely different that why you don't like him. That is ganging up. A bullying practice and I am not a fan.
Bob announced that GWAE is going away on the last podcast 5 days ago. They've been doing a lot of mailbag shows recently. They've run through every one who is anyone in the gambling world. It starts at 0:39Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
https://youtu.be/4dKRY4OuhY8
Who the fuck cares?!?!?!?
Every single one of you need to quit "proving" anything to anybody and stop providing info on forums, Twitter, etc., for casinos to shut us down!
Axelwolf, I don't know if you recall because it was probably over at WoV, but you already mentioned you were doing this stuff when I said I had done it. That's why I said if you hadn't done it, something would be seriously wrong with you.Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolfYou accused me of being lazy etc, but let me point out, I have told you and mentioned numerous times that I was betting the parlays back in the early 2000s and on and off since.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
I assumed you were doing it. Hell, I assume almost anybody who gambles seriously is doing it.
Laziness has nothing to do with it. It doesn't take work. It takes a few minutes and a few bucks.
What I'm saying here, Axelwolf, and take it as a backhanded compliment, is that I presumed you had been doing it because I have always presumed you aren't dumb as a rock. I mean, who didn't do it?
Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimmQuote:
Originally Posted by redietzYeah, that would explain the offering to answer unknown questions extemporaneously. Makes perfect sense. Explains the Who's Who in Sports Gambling inclusion. Explains being the only person in the history of "Tipsters or Gypsters?" to win back-to-back college football profit titles and three in five years. Mickey posted one of those years here in the retro Road Trip thread. Thanks, mickey.Quote:
Originally Posted by accountinquestion
Tell you what, account, why don't you come to Las Vegas and interview me. Hell, I'll pay for the videographer. Come on down, baby! It'll be a blast. I'll even pick up your hotel tab.
You want April, July, or another time in the next couple of months?
You know what? We could even do it like a job interview. Mickey, account, and a neutral party, maybe kewlJ, sitting in three chairs, asking me questions with no prep on my part. We could recruit Todd, hell, somebody recruit Singer. It'll be a grand old time.
Exciting stuff.
Can't wait to hear account's response. Email me, account.
IntegritySports@aol.com. Don't be shy.
So you want to answer questions formulated by people that are not professional sports bettors? What's up with that? How about you field questions by heavy hitters like Fezzik, Spanky and Capt. Jack Andrews? Would you still do the interview if they were sitting in the three chairs?
Maybe I can arrange it. Just say the word.
LOL.
You arrange it, mickey. Then tell Fezzik we'll be discussing The Group and his mea culpa and see what happens.
But wait until after you get him to agree. Otherwise it's no fun.
I think mickey is going to get a sports betting history lesson.
I have offered to interview you via phone if that is your desire. I'm not sure what the logic is behind me wanting to go to LV to meet and film you.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
This is the same ol forum bullshit since the dawn of forums. Challenge someone under terms you know they won't accept. So stupid. Oh free rooms! Fucking doofus.
The move here is for me to demand a $100k escrow that my identity will not be revealed. We can use Dan Druff. Do that and I don't even care about the room.
All negotiating can be done publicly. No need to privately hide it off in emails. That is the sort of stuff bullshitters and scammers want to do when the heat is too hot.
Of course podcast dude has impeccable credentials. He is interviewing you, right?
I've known people who went on to get an IHeartRadio show. I'm not sure what that is and I'm still not impressed. Glad to hear you're on a podcast. I will definitely listen.
You can't even answer how you calculated ROI for your service without the concept of EV being involved. I've asked how many times now? You know Mickey nailed you with that one, so you just avoid. You dug a big hole running your mouth with that one.
And Kewlj, stfu. No one here is concerned about the SS shit. I said things 10x worse to Mickey and he's said it back to me and we've probably both forgotten it. Redietz made his own bed here and we're having fun with him. Ok, we get what you're saying but it makes 0 sense.
Account, the fearsome AP.
If you're referring to Georga Anastasia in your post, he's not interviewing me. And have some respect. Or take the time to at least read his Wiki page. I don't think they'll track your identity if you pull up a Wiki page, but one never knows.
Better get your sister to do it, just to keep your identity under wraps.
Duck and dodge with nonsense. Surprise surprise. Standard Redietz.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
Not sure how you jump from me not wanting to interview you in person to avoiding a wiki page. Layers of idiocy but that is what happens when you paint yourself in the corner. You have no other option but to go totally silent.
You're losing your shit. Those basics of those creative writing courses have faded with time. Maybe tap Singer in and give him your notes to start with.
What is the Group....and the mea culpa? It can't be top secret if you are willing to discuss it in public. Tell us what it is.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietzQuote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimmQuote:
Originally Posted by redietz
So you want to answer questions formulated by people that are not professional sports bettors? What's up with that? How about you field questions by heavy hitters like Fezzik, Spanky and Capt. Jack Andrews? Would you still do the interview if they were sitting in the three chairs?
Maybe I can arrange it. Just say the word.
LOL.
You arrange it, mickey. Then tell Fezzik we'll be discussing The Group and his mea culpa and see what happens.
But wait until after you get him to agree. Otherwise it's no fun.
I think mickey is going to get a sports betting history lesson.
And the interview is about you, not him. Remember, you are supposed to answer questions. But how did I know you would turn it into something else? What you are doing is huffing and puffing and trying to blow the house down.
What kind of scandal do you have on Spanky and Capt. Jack? How about Rufus Peabody?
Awwww, mickey's backing off from his Fezzik challenge. Who knew? LOL.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimmWhat is the Group....and the mea culpa? It can't be top secret if you are willing to discuss it in public. Tell us what it is.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietzQuote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
LOL.
You arrange it, mickey. Then tell Fezzik we'll be discussing The Group and his mea culpa and see what happens.
But wait until after you get him to agree. Otherwise it's no fun.
I think mickey is going to get a sports betting history lesson.
What kind of scandal do you have on Spanky and Capt. Jack? How about Rufus Peabody?
I'll do it if Fezzik does it. Bottom line. He's the most knowledgeable, most experienced, most solid reputation with the most spectacular, documented results. Being questioned by Fezzik would be a true test. Set it up, baby. I may as well be questioned by the best.
Not backing off anything. You are the one backing off. You've threatened to publicly attack Fezzik. What's that all about? As soon as I tell him you want to talk about "the group and the mea culpa" what do you think he's going to do? Consent to being on a show where someone is going to attack him? You're trying to fuck things up. You know he won't do it under those conditions. Fraud.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietzAwwww, mickey's backing off from his Fezzik challenge. Who knew? LOL.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimmWhat is the Group....and the mea culpa? It can't be top secret if you are willing to discuss it in public. Tell us what it is.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
What kind of scandal do you have on Spanky and Capt. Jack? How about Rufus Peabody?
I'll do it if Fezzik does it. Bottom line. He's the most knowledgeable, most experienced, most solid reputation with the most spectacular, documented results. Being questioned by Fezzik would be a true test. Set it up, baby. I may as well be questioned by the best.
But I'll damn sure make contact and tell him there's a huckster in Tennessee that wants a showdown with him. You're banking that I can't pull it off.
You swore up and down you were going to be on GWAE too. Rinse and repeat.
< shakes head >
IntegritySports? Isn't this the site you were selling Expected Value?Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
Circles Off is an interesting sports gambling podcast.
These guys are not touts. They are anti-tout. They interview touts.
They are in Canada and can advertise Pinnacle Sports. They do make comments about Betstamp which is a good bet tracking site. One of them is connected to Betstamp.
This is a Fezzik interview. They push him enough to get him to admit most bettors can't make money with his tout picks. It has been a awhile since I listened. I think he claimed that maybe large bettors (thousands per game) can make money.
If you think a tout can give you good enough picks to cover the juice and pay for a touts advice, you can't.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Syq2P2rmdrM
Interview with Berryhorse. He posted MLB picks on Twitter for a couple of years. He was contacted by a group of large bettors. They agreed to pay him if he would stop posting his picks in public. If Redietz had a record of winning picks 30 years ago he could have found plenty of backers.
I don't know if Berryhorse is telling the truth. He is a little wacky on quantum physics and bitcoin.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3JNH1cfp3hc
Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimmNot backing off anything. You are the one backing off. You've threatened to publicly attack Fezzik. What's that all about? As soon as I tell him you want to talk about "the group and the mea culpa" what do you think he's going to do? Consent to being on a show where someone is going to attack him? You're trying to fuck things up. You know he won't do it under those conditions. Fraud.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietzAwwww, mickey's backing off from his Fezzik challenge. Who knew? LOL.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
I'll do it if Fezzik does it. Bottom line. He's the most knowledgeable, most experienced, most solid reputation with the most spectacular, documented results. Being questioned by Fezzik would be a true test. Set it up, baby. I may as well be questioned by the best.
But I'll damn sure make contact and tell him there's a huckster in Tennessee that wants a showdown with him. You're banking that I can't pull it off.
You swore up and down you were going to be on GWAE too. Rinse and repeat.
No, mickey. YOU said I'd be on GWAE if I contacted them, which I did. I emailed Munch twice. It appears that you were pulling some nonsense, probably misreporting their interest.
In fact, I'm emailing them again today as a courtesy to pass along my dates in Las Vegas. I think you better check your own posts and learn to read.
And I will not publicly attack Fezzik. I will just let him know that I am somewhat informed. Unlike you, mickey.
When you mention "the huckster," also mention that "the huckster" is in contact with his successful predecessor regarding "the debacle." He'll know what I'm talking about.
Mickey, you are so completely uninformed and out of your depth. But be sure to contact Fezzik regarding "the huckster." Please. I think it'll be eye-opening when he realizes his predecessor and "the huckster" may be working together.
Oh, mickey, I have to add this. Please let Fezzik know that "the huckster" is doing some work for George Anastasia's radio series. LOL.
Mickey didn't know about the parlay card tricks. A spot where lines aren't adjusted. Mickey would have readily figured it out had he encountered it. The guy clearly knows numbers and anyone in the slot game knows this. He has a pretty damn good natural ability with numbers. You on the other hand seem to scoff at numbers.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietzQuote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimmNot backing off anything. You are the one backing off. You've threatened to publicly attack Fezzik. What's that all about? As soon as I tell him you want to talk about "the group and the mea culpa" what do you think he's going to do? Consent to being on a show where someone is going to attack him? You're trying to fuck things up. You know he won't do it under those conditions. Fraud.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
But I'll damn sure make contact and tell him there's a huckster in Tennessee that wants a showdown with him. You're banking that I can't pull it off.
You swore up and down you were going to be on GWAE too. Rinse and repeat.
No, mickey. YOU said I'd be on GWAE if I contacted them, which I did. I emailed Munch twice. It appears that you were pulling some nonsense, probably misreporting their interest.
In fact, I'm emailing them again today as a courtesy to pass along my dates in Las Vegas. I think you better check your own posts and learn to read.
And I will not publicly attack Fezzik. I will just let him know that I am somewhat informed. Unlike you, mickey.
When you mention "the huckster," also mention that "the huckster" is in contact with his successful predecessor regarding "the debacle." He'll know what I'm talking about.
Mickey, you are so completely uninformed and out of your depth. But be sure to contact Fezzik regarding "the huckster." Please. I think it'll be eye-opening when he realizes his predecessor and "the huckster" may be working together.
Oh, mickey, I have to add this. Please let Fezzik know that "the huckster" is doing some work for George Anastasia's radio series. LOL.
People - figure it out.
The fact that you try SO HARD to discredit him with scant details is just further evidence of you being bullshit.
Talk about out of depth. You are so ignorant you scoffed at the math and terminology readily used by winning sports bettors all over. You ridiculed me, yet the terminology I used seems to be in common usage and amongst winning bettors.
Again, the question remains. How did you report a ROI on your website without using the concept of EV in sports betting? Stop hiding in the shadows like a little avoiding rodent and answer the damn question.
The large letters are for emphasis not anger.
Via handicapping? NO!!! I don't know anyone whose sole income has been derived from pure handicapping. Do I think he's made a living via the sports industry? Yes. I haven't any doubt that his knowledge of sports and the sports industry is far superior to anyone here.Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJAxelwolf, can I ask you a simple question? Do you believe Redietz has made a living involved with sports betting for the last 30-40 years as he has claimed?Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolf
I do. There are some inconsistencies, but basically, on my knows what he is talking about vs just talking meter, redietz passes to my satisfaction. Plus, I don't know that anyone would carry on a charade for decades other than Ron Singer, who has some issues.
Now if you don't believe it, and/or he doesn't pass your 'test', it is fine that you say so and challenge him.
But I feel like you and mickey and a few others believes his basic claim, but are really giving him a hard time right now because of dislikes and ego.
I mean comments like "You accused me of being lazy etc" or AccountinQuestion actually saying he finds redietz condescending, or mickey obviously having a chip on his shoulder after redietz stupid comment about social security and welfare, just makes me think you guys are just out to belittle him and discredit him, more so that that you actually dis-believe him. Just feels like egos come in to play. Maybe I am wrong.
FYI this isn't me jumping on the hate redietz bandwagon. You're probably only noticing it now, but you can go way back to the beginning I have always asked redietz tough questions about his sports gig, and I have always been very skeptical any sort of sports touting-related stuff. Regrettably, I ramped up my dixdeadedness to a sad level after having read some of his recent posts. I got sucked in. I feel bad for being an ass and insulting to redietz he didn't deserve that. I should have argued my point without being insulting.
Good for you for saying this. We all are guilty of this. It is easy to get sucked into these situations. :cool:Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolf
Can you give some examples of what you mean, that you think may apply?Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolf
I may come across mean towards Redietz but at every chance he has had - he has went out of his way to be condescending. APs talking about sports betting from an AP perspective put the guy on tilt as it is obviously his sole identity. He then just double-downed on his condescension. Telling Mickey he is out of his depth 3 times in one post. He's not even trying to be amusing either. It'd been pretty easy of him to just accept that APs can beat sports and the dedicated ones probably win far more than a handicapper. Being able to spread action across sports throughout the year must be pretty valuable and other various debatable reasons.
I was aware of Integrity Sports many years ago when I was in that line of work. So I do have some awareness of his history. However, he is often his own worst enemy as he can be very evasive as to exactly what he does.
One of my beefs with the "company" that I worked for was that they insisted on giving out both sides of games. I felt that with the wealth of knowledge and information that we had, it was not necessary. This was 40 years ago when very few had that information. In those days, and probably until about 2000, you could make $ handicapping sports. I can't say the same thing now as I bet only a few games now and then for fun. I would think playing the freebies and bonuses on all the various wagering platform is the best way now unless you have the 40-50 years of knowledge and experience, and the time, that Redietz has.
It's hard to really say because I don't know how his business model worked/works. This is all speculative.Quote:
Originally Posted by coach bellyCan you give some examples of what you mean, that you think may apply?Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolf
I haven't any clue how many investors he has or how much they invest. I don't know how often investors come and go(you will see why that's important). I don't know if his investors have action on his contest entries and all of his sports betting or if he does his own betting on the side.
From my understanding, he only deals with bigger investors. I assume he has a good deal with his investors, perhaps a free roll of some sort. If you have investors and you're betting enough, you are going to get extra perks and you can even negotiate better deals... Less vig, free bets, free contest entries, etc. Are investors investing as a group or as individuals(thats important to know)?
He posted something about earning a shit ton of loyalty points, I haven't any idea if that was accumulated from the investor's money or his own. If he's using investors' money do they share the extras or does he get to keep it?
He obviously knows and understands how to exploit legitimate +EV situations such as rebates, bonuses, middles, line shopping, etc.
He mentioned something about knowing what direction the line will move based on the public betting and other factors, that's definitely +EV.
You should be making money when you include all of that.
When and how often does the money get settled up? Does everything start fresh/reset after a settlement?
Let's assume you have a situation where you get a percentage of your investor's wins and take non of the loss(even if you yourself are an investor).
If investors are coming and going or treated as individuals and not as a group, you can see how that's +EV for the investee.
If you have a situation where you get a percentage of your investor's wins and take non of the loss and you settle up at the end of each season and start fresh without makeup from any previous losing seasons you can see how an investee would come out on top in that situation.
Ditz, you are worse than KJ when it comes to inventing facts. So I "said you would be on GWAE?" YOU ARE FULL OF SHIT.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
You said you would appear on GWAE in post #3 before I said anything about it. I said I would I contact them and "We'll see what happens."
So I gave them your name then copied and pasted your post #5 in this thread:
"I'll be more than happy to guest on GWAE and explain why the phrase "Expected Value" is inappropriate for sports betting purposes. I'll also be more than happy to explain why handicappers with documented decades-long records and reputations among managers of sports books are more credible than cute anonymous nicknames. And I'll be amenable to pulling rank on the LVA sports betting luminaries, with the exception of Fezzik, who is one of the best contest players of all time, but who has run into some harsh realities in the hands-on gambling world. In fact, I can wax eloquent regarding how Fezzik fared helming a Las Vegas cartel, the consequences, and how his predecessors had fared.
I can also mention some of Billy Walters' tricks of the trade. And who were the best of the best in sports handicapping decade by decade in Las Vegas. Also, how I noticed Lefty Rosenthal when he visited the Stardust. And, years later, how I almost ruined a scene in the movie Casino."
__________________________
They certainly weren't impressed by you referring to nationally known professional sportsbettor, Spanky, as "a cute anonymous nickname." Don't you think that made you look ignorant? They were concerned you would attack people on the show. I went out on a limb and gave them my assurances you would be a gentleman. They gave me the greenlight for you to contact them to see if you could all agree to a set of questions to be asked. But who knows if they were solid for having you on.
So I sent you their email addresses. You were on your own from that point forward. Whether you are going to be on or not is up to the parties involved, not me. Did you think you would be on the show without any negotiation?
I've been completely transparent here. All you've given is "I emailed Munchkin twice. He hasn't gotten back to me." First of all you should have CC'd Dancer. 2nd of all, what the fuck did you put in the email? It could have put Munchkin off. 2nd, they were concerned about how your behavior would be. For all I know one of them could have looked you up on this site and didn't like what they saw.
The only one to blame for you not being on the show is YOU.
Can you define handicapping? It seems like a silly request, but there is +EV sports betting that covers a variety of things that can be backed up with math and perhaps historical data, I'm a firm believer in that. And then there's handicapping. Handicapping is based on various things. What are those things? Obviously, it depends on the handicapper and the list is long. But perhaps someone can give me the top 5 most important things a handicapper looks for and how those things translate to +EV.Quote:
Originally Posted by regnis
Axel-that is a good and difficult question to answer. My primary handicapping tool in those days was the inside info we received from trainers or others at the particular colleges. Beyond that it was the normal things like matchups, home/ away, some degree of historicals, and just years of experience analyzing games. I was not that much into line movements as we had to publish early in the week.Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolfCan you define handicapping? It seems like a silly request, but there is +EV sports betting that covers a variety of things that can be backed up with math and perhaps historical data, I'm a firm believer in that. And then there's handicapping. Handicapping is based on various things. What are those things? Obviously, it depends on the handicapper and the list is long. But perhaps someone can give me the top 5 most important things a handicapper looks for and how those things translate to +EV.Quote:
Originally Posted by regnis
I am not one to rely on stats that have no reasoning behind them. For example, mickey or smoke or someone has thrown out there some stat about dogs of 3 or less (or something like that). I need a reason for that stat. Otherwise to me it is just a statistical anomaly like heads coming up 70 out of 100 times. That being said, i probably made my biggest scores fading the big 10 in the bowl games and march madness. There is some degree of reason behind that—they are always over rated.
Knowledge and experience were the keys. There was no internet and widely known stats.. you had to make your own. I do agree it is completely different now which is why i stick to horses. Plus, instead of -105, i get much higher odds.
Smoke put up some Shack stats that showed NFL away dogs covered 54% over the last 30 years. I think that is significant and can't be called a trend.Quote:
Originally Posted by regnisAxel-that is a good and difficult question to answer. My primary handicapping tool in those days was the inside info we received from trainers or others at the particular colleges. Beyond that it was the normal things like matchups, home/ away, some degree of historicals, and just years of experience analyzing games. I was not that much into line movements as we had to publish early in the week.Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolfCan you define handicapping? It seems like a silly request, but there is +EV sports betting that covers a variety of things that can be backed up with math and perhaps historical data, I'm a firm believer in that. And then there's handicapping. Handicapping is based on various things. What are those things? Obviously, it depends on the handicapper and the list is long. But perhaps someone can give me the top 5 most important things a handicapper looks for and how those things translate to +EV.Quote:
Originally Posted by regnis
I am not one to rely on stats that have no reasoning behind them. For example, mickey or smoke or someone has thrown out there some stat about dogs of 3 or less (or something like that). I need a reason for that stat. Otherwise to me it is just a statistical anomaly like heads coming up 70 out of 100 times. That being said, i probably made my biggest scores fading the big 10 in the bowl games and march madness. There is some degree of reason behind that—they are always over rated.
Knowledge and experience were the keys. There was no internet and widely known stats.. you had to make your own. I do agree it is completely different now which is why i stick to horses. Plus, instead of -105, i get much higher odds.
In the Fezzik interview when asked about dead numbers on parlay cards he said when a line on a parlay card is -2.5 then the line on the board moves to -3.5, the -2.5 wins 60% of the time whereas the -3.5 wins 50% of the time. I have to think he's basing that off statistics.
Nowadays, are you beating horses straight up? Do you use computers to aid you in doing so?Quote:
Originally Posted by regnisAxel-that is a good and difficult question to answer. My primary handicapping tool in those days was the inside info we received from trainers or others at the particular colleges. Beyond that it was the normal things like matchups, home/ away, some degree of historicals, and just years of experience analyzing games. I was not that much into line movements as we had to publish early in the week.Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolfCan you define handicapping? It seems like a silly request, but there is +EV sports betting that covers a variety of things that can be backed up with math and perhaps historical data, I'm a firm believer in that. And then there's handicapping. Handicapping is based on various things. What are those things? Obviously, it depends on the handicapper and the list is long. But perhaps someone can give me the top 5 most important things a handicapper looks for and how those things translate to +EV.Quote:
Originally Posted by regnis
I am not one to rely on stats that have no reasoning behind them. For example, mickey or smoke or someone has thrown out there some stat about dogs of 3 or less (or something like that). I need a reason for that stat. Otherwise to me it is just a statistical anomaly like heads coming up 70 out of 100 times. That being said, i probably made my biggest scores fading the big 10 in the bowl games and march madness. There is some degree of reason behind that—they are always over rated.
Knowledge and experience were the keys. There was no internet and widely known stats.. you had to make your own. I do agree it is completely different now which is why i stick to horses. Plus, instead of -105, i get much higher odds.
I know at one-time horse bettors got back significant rebates and such. I don't know if that's still the case, but if you can't beat the ponies str8 up I have to imagine you can make a significant amount. I haven't ay clue how much time and effort goes into finding a good bet or how often one finds a good bet.
All NFL away dogs? Or is there some criteria within a point spread?Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimmSmoke put up some Shack stats that showed NFL away dogs covered 54% over the last 30 years. I think that is significant and can't be called a trend.Quote:
Originally Posted by regnisAxel-that is a good and difficult question to answer. My primary handicapping tool in those days was the inside info we received from trainers or others at the particular colleges. Beyond that it was the normal things like matchups, home/ away, some degree of historicals, and just years of experience analyzing games. I was not that much into line movements as we had to publish early in the week.Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolf
I am not one to rely on stats that have no reasoning behind them. For example, mickey or smoke or someone has thrown out there some stat about dogs of 3 or less (or something like that). I need a reason for that stat. Otherwise to me it is just a statistical anomaly like heads coming up 70 out of 100 times. That being said, i probably made my biggest scores fading the big 10 in the bowl games and march madness. There is some degree of reason behind that—they are always over rated.
Knowledge and experience were the keys. There was no internet and widely known stats.. you had to make your own. I do agree it is completely different now which is why i stick to horses. Plus, instead of -105, i get much higher odds.
Mickey, I have found this stat very interesting since I saw it a year or so ago. Actually the number I remember seeing involving Shack was away dogs of 4 points or less. This is only significant because the second most common margin of victory in the NFL is 3 points, so getting 3, 3.5, 4 points would all cover that margin. Makes me wonder if you only looked at the 3, 3.5, 4 spreads if that win percentages might not tick up a point or two to 55-56%? :confused:Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
This all makes common sense when you think about it because oddsmakers assign 3 points as a home field advantage, so for an underdog of 4 points or less, they are basically saying the two teamsare evenly matched. I will take the points in a toss up scenario. :)
But then this gets into just what is the home field advantage? Unlike baseball where field are different sizes and demensions, football is all the same 100 yards by 53 yards wide field. So fans are yelling and rooting against you rather than for you. Unlike a sport like basketball, the fans aren't really right on top of you, so I just don't know why it matters as much as it seems to. I think a lot of it is psychological. There is the aspect of home cooked meal and sleeping in your own bed, rather than a hotel, but players that play for a living (and even college players) should be so used to that, that it isn't an issue. I am not arguing the stats. Just find it odd that home field seems to matter as much as it does in football.
I would love to know the average number of times this situation comes up per season. I would like to know the longest losing streak for this bet, and how many successful seasons vs non-successful seasons. I'm definitely going to use it in the upcoming NFL season when they ramp up the bonus offers.Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJMickey, I have found this stat very interesting since I saw it a year or so ago. Actually the number I remember seeing involving Shack was away dogs of 4 points or less. This is only significant because the second most common margin of victory in the NFL is 3 points, so getting 3, 3.5, 4 points would all cover that margin. Makes me wonder if you only looked at the 3, 3.5, 4 spreads if that win percentages might not tick up a point or two to 55-56%? :confused:Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
This all makes common sense when you think about it because oddsmakers assign 3 points as a home field advantage, so for an underdog of 4 points or less, they are basically saying the two teamsare evenly matched. I will take the points in a toss up scenario. :)
But then this gets into just what is the home field advantage? Unlike baseball where field are different sizes and demensions, football is all the same 100 yards by 53 yards wide field. So fans are yelling and rooting against you rather than for you. Unlike a sport like basketball, the fans aren't really right on top of you, so I just don't know why it matters as much as it seems to. I think a lot of it is psychological. There is the aspect of home cooked meal and sleeping in your own bed, rather than a hotel, but players that play for a living (and even college players) should be so used to that, that it isn't an issue. I am not arguing the stats. Just find it odd that home field seems to matter as much as it does in football.
yeah well here is another one concerning baseball. I believe the data is over 3 or 4 seasons, which is a smaller number, but baseball plays many more games so an equally large sample size. So the angle is that away underdog baseball teams playing division opponents, while losing more games than they win, have a fairly significant plus return on the money line.Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolf
Some of these money lines can be over +200, @ +220, +250 occasionally more, so you would only need the team to win probably somewhere close to 40%.
So guess what? Early results this year...dreadful! ;)
I am too old and too set in my ways to use computerized systems, but there are a great many of the younger handicappers that are using computerized systems and doing it well.Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolfNowadays, are you beating horses straight up? Do you use computers to aid you in doing so?Quote:
Originally Posted by regnisAxel-that is a good and difficult question to answer. My primary handicapping tool in those days was the inside info we received from trainers or others at the particular colleges. Beyond that it was the normal things like matchups, home/ away, some degree of historicals, and just years of experience analyzing games. I was not that much into line movements as we had to publish early in the week.Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolf
I am not one to rely on stats that have no reasoning behind them. For example, mickey or smoke or someone has thrown out there some stat about dogs of 3 or less (or something like that). I need a reason for that stat. Otherwise to me it is just a statistical anomaly like heads coming up 70 out of 100 times. That being said, i probably made my biggest scores fading the big 10 in the bowl games and march madness. There is some degree of reason behind that—they are always over rated.
Knowledge and experience were the keys. There was no internet and widely known stats.. you had to make your own. I do agree it is completely different now which is why i stick to horses. Plus, instead of -105, i get much higher odds.
I know at one-time horse bettors got back significant rebates and such. I don't know if that's still the case, but if you can't beat the ponies str8 up I have to imagine you can make a significant amount. I haven't ay clue how much time and effort goes into finding a good bet or how often one finds a good bet.
Yes i am highly profitable at it. Enough that for many periods of time i stopped practicing law.now i am doing both as my clients are dying and probate work is very profitable.
Years ago, i studied and read everything about breeding and became somewhat of an expert. I consulted with certain owners when they were acquiring yearlings. That was a huge advantage. But again today, the basics of breeding, at least at the one generation level of the sire, are readily available. I used to trace many generations back to northern dancer as there are various crosses with northern dancer that produce winners.
I have been playing the horses since was 12, and pretty much full time since college. So again, knowledge and experience.
I dont remember which thread i mentioned to ask redietz about my score at kentucky downs 2 years ago. 1.2 million in 5 days. Hard to lose that back at 3 to 5 thousand a day 4 days a week.
Yes— i get pretty good rebates although they keep shrinking them. Much more on the obscure tracks than the name brands. I have about 14,000 on account as of 3-31. It will go up in the summer when we have nore tracks and better racing.
Back when I was in jr high and high school, my grandfather would take my to the track in Pa several times a year when I visited, so I developed a very minor interest in horseracing. I found a book at the library called My $50,000 year at the track by Andrew Beyers, who was the horseracing guy for I think the Washington Post at the time of the book, which was the 70's. Are you familiar with the book and story regnis? I know Beyers went on to developed the Beyers index. I think this was prior to that. And keep in mind $50,000 in the 70's.Quote:
Originally Posted by regnis
So anyway the majority, like 90% of Mr Beyers $50,000 win came from a two week track bias at the opening of one of the Maryland tracks. Coming down the stretch the inside rail was rock hard and provided an advantage to the horse in that position. Now mind you, that didn't necessarily mean it was the 1 or 2 horse. It was whatever horse got to the top of the stretch in lead and got to the inside. It could be the 6 or 8 horse.
This was before computer analysis of course, but a computer analysis wouldn't even have picked this up because it was not the 1 or 2 horse, but the horse that got to that inside front position at the top of the stretch.
I think after two weeks it rained for a couple days and with all the work on the track, the bias was gone. Fun read though!
Kewl-i have read that book. His beyer numbers are still used in the racing form (although very unreliable as too much human input now. Cool that grampa used to take you.
Funny story. I would sneak out of high school and go to the track. My grandfather was basicly an invalid as he was born with a hole in his heart. He could barely get around with a cane. So i am walking thru the grandstand and i see grandpa. He had to walk and take 2 busses and a train to get to the track.he was a former bookie and had info on a horse named crack the whip. He wins at 40-1. We both made a good lick.
I get home and i see the concerned look on my parents faces. I ask whats the matter. They say pops disappeared. I cant tell them anything cause i blew off school and i didnt want to rat him out. Finally several hours later he got home.
Track bias is one of my main tools. That is why i used to call the track maintenance guy every morning.
Good thing you didn't rat him out or monet would be calling you a rat. ;)Quote:
Originally Posted by regnis
That hole in the heart can be fixed now a days, for a much more normal quality of life than your grandfather probably experienced. It is a shame that wasn't the case back then. A lot of people don't know it but being born with a hole in the heart is actually a pretty common thing. Many times it will close on it's own during childhood. But if it doesn't surgery can fix it. I think they now can even do that with a much less invasive type surgery. (used to be open heart).
The only horse betting I have done has been the rare occasional tip or with a rare online ponies only bonus.
Many years ago at the Fiesta, they had a promotion where they were doubling payouts on something, I can't even remember what it was called, perhaps twinQ's(?) Anyways, it was huge +EV and could lock up free money betting on all the combinations. It didn't last long, perhaps a week. That's the extent of my horses.
Everyone I ever came across in the casinos who did machine AP and bet the horses were broke and broken.
Here is my horse racing story. Back in Philly, I frequented a bar a couple times a week starting on my days off, Thursday and Friday back when I worked before blackjack. This was not a gay bar, but a corner type sports bar. Some of the Philly sports players used to stop in on a Friday after a game. I developed a friendship with a core group of regulars that were all 15-20 years older than me.
So in 2004, there was a horse, Smarty Jones based from Phila Park, the Philly race track in the Kentucky derby. First Philly based horse, but there have since been others. So a group of 5 of us bar regulars and the owner went up to Philly Park Race track on derby day for a day of live racing and watching the derby on the screen. The track was packed. So one of the guys had this brilliant idea that we all throw, I forget what it was $100 or $120 into the pot and bet as many trifectas combinations as we could. With Derby fields at 16, 17 horses, there were often longshots involved and high trifecta prices.
So the rule was that everyone picked 6 horse they wanted in the mix and everyone picked one horse they did not want (a veto horse) and we would see how many combinations we could get. I forget how it worked but the veto horses were still in the mix, as long as someone else had picked him, but there would be far fewer combinations with him involved. Of course everyone had the local horse Smarty Jones as one of their picks. But Smarty Jones was my "veto horse". I had some reasons for this, it wasn't just to be contrary. No Pa horse had ever won the derby. No horse had won the derby after winning the prep races he had won like the Arkansas Derby instead of the normal prep races. The trainer went with the local jockey, Steward Elliot, instead of switching to one of the top national "big race" jockeys.
So needless to say, as we watched the derby on the screen, when the horses rounded the turn and Smarty Jones surged to the lead around the final turn and won going away, I was not very popular. We did not hit the trifecta. And every Friday night until I moved away my buddies never let me forget it. But it was good fun. :) I miss those days and those guys.
This fact is not surprising - you can thank Pfizer and Moderna for the rise in your probate work IMHO.Quote:
Originally Posted by regnis
Axel, this chart comes from the Wizard of Odds site. It's Shack's work. It looks like most of it is based on 2000+ games played. He gives the win/loss on various bets but also shows the ROI on the bets.Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolfAll NFL away dogs? Or is there some criteria within a point spread?Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimmSmoke put up some Shack stats that showed NFL away dogs covered 54% over the last 30 years. I think that is significant and can't be called a trend.Quote:
Originally Posted by regnis
Betting All Away thru 3100 games showed a 53% win and 1.34% ROI.
Betting Away Underdogs thru 2100 games showed a 53.75% win and 2.57% ROI.
Betting All Hometeams, All Favorites, Home Favorites and Home Dogs were big losers.
Here's the stats on over/under and moneyline:
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doing nothing other than betting NFL away underdogs - an amateur would surely outperform many of those who call themselves pros
tweaking it as I have done, and instead betting only on away underdogs who get 4 points or fewer and the outperformance of so called pros is large
I've posted this before - anyway - I've tracked the last 4 regular seasons of the above and got 159-117 - 57.6% winners - pushes not considered - 10% r.o.i.
I will continue tracking every upcoming season and posting the seasonal and combined results
all of this can be verified by anybody who wants to do the work at covers.com
what's also very interesting - to me anyway - is that although the home fave is loved and over bet against the spread -
it is just the opposite on the money line - at least with extreme faves - usually at home - the underdog is over bet
that is because there is a favorite/longshot bias - bettors greatly prefer big payout to small payouts
this has been well documented in horse racing - not so much in other sports - but I believe it is a for sure thing - at least when it comes to extreme faves and dogs
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academics who have researched this in horse racing have called this phenomenon "Risk Love"Quote:
Originally Posted by Half Smoke
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Good stuff, good stuff. So on average, you'll get 69 opportunities per season. That's important to me because oftentimes the online bonuses only give you about 30 days to use your free bets.Quote:
Originally Posted by Half Smoke
I resemble that remark. :(Quote:
Originally Posted by Half Smoke
Most of my bets are + odds, because underdog bets earn greater reward points at some of the US-legal books. And some of the promos disallow deeply minus odds.
It makes sense that a +1000 is more popular than a -2000, for the same reason that Vegas locals drive to Primm to buy lottery tickets.
That would explain why the Super Bowl "no safety" would often be a good bet. I heard about that one from Wizard, although I assume redietz thought of it first.
This latest GWAE episode has Mr. Doppy on. He initially worked a lottery play. Then he moved to working sportsbook promotions. He's an advantage player not a handicapper. But he explains how even a novice sportsbettor could make money doing what he was doing. For the sports betting go to the 22:30 mark:
https://youtu.be/KxV0tRLp3vk
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if a capper is sharp he's prolly going to be looking at the same lines as other sharps
at least some of the big books open up their lines at 12:45 a.m. - way, way before game time
the lines are very likely to be a lot looser then - but most won't get them due to laziness - they want to wake up at noon and get some coffee and then start thinking about their bets
I believe the lines available closest to game time are the tightest - that is 100% true in horse racing and although I can't prove it in sports betting - I believe it is undeniable
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Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
So what ! knowledge is basically a commodity. It doesn’t matter what you know can you apply the knowledge in real time to make money. So many of you just talk shit and literally do nothing. Or do just enough to get by. No desire to be the best. No drive for excellence. That’s why I shit on all of you so much. It’s not that I don’t think some of you are sharp. It’s just I can’t stand people who are low functioning. Sports betting today is so easy and Boring with the free bets it’s about as fun as watching paint dry. If it’s about making the most money ithen certainly the guys breaking tos running the most servers and accounts are at the top. They are using the casinos own money to beat them at their own game. The best are NOT guys looking for investors lolololololol and handicapping or playing contest
Word I got from state street said you got 86ed from parx trying to rub the shaft of smartyQuote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
Quote:
Originally Posted by Seedvalue
I agree with what you're saying but there is another aspect to it totally outside the monetary thing
can a capper beat the game without any promos or bonuses or other goodies such as boosts from the house___________?
it's a great challenge - it's not at all easy - and then if you can beat it what's the best r.o.i. you can achieve - think of the game of Chess - can you beat your r.o.i. from last season_______?
if you can beat the game where do you have the greatest impact_______? - a few bets with a relatively high r.o.i. - or many bets with a much smaller r.o.i._________________?
it's doable but hard in sports betting - much, much harder is horse racing -
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What is sportsbetting Expected Value?
https://sportshandle.com/expected-value/
It seems like this is from a handicapper's perspective with line shoppingQuote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
Red was saying one needs a bunch of money in multiple accounts to target mathematically proven advantages I.E. a large bankroll that most people don't have.
"A bettor needs to win 52.38% of their bets just to break even." "the most profitable bettors win “only” around 55%-56% of bets."
How much would one need to be betting per game to make a living with handicapping only? That sounds like you need a significantly larger bankroll to fade the variance with the risk of actually going broke. Many of the other +EV non-handicapping methods have a higher player+EV percentage with way less variance.
Both can be scaled down to fit one's bankroll according to Kelly, but when doing so, a handicapper puts himself in a situation where he cannot make a living. Using Other +EV non-handicapping methods requires a much smaller bankroll with a higher earn.
I will admit IF you can consistently get 55-58 percent your higher-end potential is significantly better, especially if you have a bankroll that can fade getting in hundreds of thousands in action.
When does a handicapper know when he himself has been handicapped? How many years before he realizes something has changed and he no longer has an advantage for whatever reason?
EXCELLENT point. With the concept of EV you weigh the better bets vs betting on your hunches. Handicapping seems to be about other aspects of gambling that don't include maximizing money won.Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolfIt seems like this is from a handicapper's perspective with line shoppingQuote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
Red was saying one needs a bunch of money in multiple accounts to target mathematically proven advantages I.E. a large bankroll that most people don't have.
"A bettor needs to win 52.38% of their bets just to break even." "the most profitable bettors win “only” around 55%-56% of bets."
How much would one need to be betting per game to make a living with handicapping only? That sounds like you need a significantly larger bankroll to fade the variance with the risk of actually going broke. Many of the other +EV non-handicapping methods have a higher player+EV percentage with way less variance.
Both can be scaled down to fit one's bankroll according to Kelly, but when doing so, a handicapper puts himself in a situation where he cannot make a living. Using Other +EV non-handicapping methods requires a much smaller bankroll with a higher earn.
I will admit IF you can consistently get 55-58 percent your higher-end potential is significantly better, especially if you have a bankroll that can fade getting in hundreds of thousands in action.
When does a handicapper know when he himself has been handicapped? How many years before he realizes something has changed and he no longer has an advantage for whatever reason?
Also, apparently, one needs years of experience at handicapping I'm not sure how one knows when they're good enough and how many years before one can earn a living.Quote:
Originally Posted by accountinquestionEXCELLENT point. With the concept of EV you weigh the better bets vs betting on your hunches. Handicapping seems to be about other aspects of gambling that don't include maximizing money won.Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolfIt seems like this is from a handicapper's perspective with line shoppingQuote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
Red was saying one needs a bunch of money in multiple accounts to target mathematically proven advantages I.E. a large bankroll that most people don't have.
"A bettor needs to win 52.38% of their bets just to break even." "the most profitable bettors win “only” around 55%-56% of bets."
How much would one need to be betting per game to make a living with handicapping only? That sounds like you need a significantly larger bankroll to fade the variance with the risk of actually going broke. Many of the other +EV non-handicapping methods have a higher player+EV percentage with way less variance.
Both can be scaled down to fit one's bankroll according to Kelly, but when doing so, a handicapper puts himself in a situation where he cannot make a living. Using Other +EV non-handicapping methods requires a much smaller bankroll with a higher earn.
I will admit IF you can consistently get 55-58 percent your higher-end potential is significantly better, especially if you have a bankroll that can fade getting in hundreds of thousands in action.
When does a handicapper know when he himself has been handicapped? How many years before he realizes something has changed and he no longer has an advantage for whatever reason?
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EV in handicapping is not the same as EV in blackjack for example - in blackjack and probably machine play EV can be calculated very accurately
EV in handicapping is nothing other than a speculation
NOBODY can say for sure what the true odds are of the Astros beating the Pirates today
it's nothing but an opinion
a capper may brag that he got an r.oi. of 7% last year betting 250 hoops games and it may be public knowledge and it may be true
but in no way does that mean he's guaranteed to score again in the same way in the upcoming year - the game changes and the capper himself may have changed -
that doesn't mean that many cappers can't beat sports without promos or bonuses or boosts - it just means that it's not something you can place in a box and tie up very neatly
having said that - there is a CAW (computer assisted wagering) team crushing horse racing - see link
so, maybe some geeks with a very sophisticated program could come up with the true odds on a sporting event - I dunno - I'm not at all sure about that - an NFL game has maybe 30 players total out on the field - would seem really difficult to do - even for the best computer thing
https://www.ft.com/content/402955aa-...7-f79e7f19a617
the article has been put behind a paywall - costs $1.00 to read - here are some facts about this team:
accounted for 25% of all wagering at Gulfstream last year - bet $4.5 million in one day at Gulfstream
they may account for 20% of all horse racing wagering in the U.S.
they get a 10% rebate on their bets and are located in the tax haven island of Curacao in the Dutch Caribbean
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The horse races are live sports betting. Humans or Horses? What's the difference when betting? This guy, Bill Benter wrote a computer program that made him a billion dollars betting on horses. And horse racing, with the double digit juice, is far far harder to beat than human sports. Before horse racing Benter was a "blackjack AP." So much for AP's can't make it in sports betting. I've got something in common with this guy, I used to hang out at the Western too.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/featu...se-racing-code