Im starting to become a believer the Tigers will blow the division. Now real bets on it besides betting on the Braves and Guardians to win 3 games today.
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Im starting to become a believer the Tigers will blow the division. Now real bets on it besides betting on the Braves and Guardians to win 3 games today.
suckscockontuesdays also sucks baseball player dock on sundays.
This is terrible. I have been deeply focused on college football and have not taken a peek at baseball in two weeks. A month ago, I was trying to come up with some Godforsaken baseball team that looked dead but wasn't, and my conclusion was the Indians. But upon closer inspection, I thought I was being a drama queen and Cleveland actually had no real shot.Quote:
Originally Posted by theywontpayontuesday
LOL.
You know, your first impressions are always best. I kind of thought if anybody collapsed, the Tigers were the obvious candidate. But I just could not convince myself to reach into my wallet.
I think we can all agree that this collapse by Detroit tigers is stunning. The media likes to point out that they have blown a 15.5 game lead, which was the margin sometime around the all-start game. But the fall has been worse than that. On Sept 5th they were still 11.5 games up. And by Sept 24 they were a game behind. That is a 12.5 game swing in 19 days!
I call it a Tigers collapse because as well as the Guardians have played during this 3 week stretch, this could have only happened with Detroit having a major collapse at the same time.
Of course, a part of this on both ends was Cleveland winning 5 of 6 against the Tigers in the last 9 days. 2 of those wins Skubal started! Can't blame him as he pitched well in both games. But the definition of an ace is someone that can win and stop such a slide.
I had never bet a team with a run differential as bad as Cleveland. That's the main reason I passed. I had to figure out if they were a mirage, and my conclusion was that were more likely to go to hell than Detroit.
Each day is must win for a lot of teams
Surprising the Guardians didnt win today and Tigers not so much, same for NYM, and it's looking glum for the Fiamondbacks. Im still hopeful the Astros sweep Angels. All those Astros bets against long odds no matter what in the playoffs. They completely stink, I dont care what their record is. Funny they suck so bad, the Astros are almost done giving up the game with now only one run. They stink!
Great insight, but what about bird law?Quote:
Originally Posted by theywontpayontuesday
Quote:
Originally Posted by MDawg
Final day in Baseball. 6 teams playing for something.
Toronto and Yankees playing for AL East title Loser makes playoffs but as a wild card.
Detroit and Cleveland playing for division title. Again loser is a wild card. But in an interesting twist the loser will be the 3rd wild card and have to play a 3 game series, all 3 games at the team that wins the division (3rd division winner). So in a sense they are playing for home field advantage for all three games.
And Finally the Reds and Mets playing for the final playoff spot (Reds hold tiebreaker so Mets need to win and have reds lose.
So Toronto took care of business in a big way with 13-4 win.
Detroit lost sealing there fate as the final wild card team that has to travel to cleveland for a 3 game series.
Reds and Mets both lost, so Cincinnati sort of backs into the final wild card and will play at the Dodgers for 3 games.
So the Mets....those AMAZING METS. They were basically tied with Phillies in early August and finished 13 games behind the Phillies and missed the playoff. THAT is a pretty healthy slide. And on this final day that they needed to win, they couldn't even muster up a single run. Oh did I mention the Mets have the second highest payroll in Baseball? My guess is their manager takes the fall.
It is surely disappointing the Astros missed the cut, but I've known about them having trouble forever. In retrospect, I would have gotten out more than I did. Ever since the Athletics swept them it was dubious.
Here is another little interesting tidbit about those amazing Mets. The Mets were 0-70 when trailing after 8 innings. Not a single 9th inning rally to win a game. They were the only team in baseball to not have a single 9th inning rally to win a game. The Texas Rangers had (7) 9th inning Rallys to win games, Even the worst team in Baseball, Colorado had 6.
The Mets have the likes of Juan Soto and Pete Alonso. You mean to tell me they couldn't rally in at least one game they were losing maybe 4-3 or 5-4 and score a couple runs in the 9th to win? :rolleyes:
And as it turns out, if they had, even once, they would be in the playoffs.
Im glad to see my bet on the Mets missing the playoffs. I didnt think the Brewers would let Cincinatti a chance. The Mets would have stood a chance in the playoffs I would have guessed if they made it.
This is really hurting not having these games unavailable.. I can't see a single game on mlb, apple TV, HBO max, Amazon, or Hulu. We don't have cable or satellite.
I have various AL pennant vs Brewers NL pennant alive. Brewers-Blue Jays, Mariners, Red Sox, Guardians. It's looking good but of course the biggest flaw is the Brewers. The Dodgers and Phillies are scary of course, it would seem like a major upset even with the Brewers being the best team in baseball. The Brewers are desperate for good news about Brandon Woodruff they haven't gotten yet. It sucks how the Brewers played Saturday then not again until Monday. 2-0 then would be sweet for me. Im not confident about anyone.
Jeez the Yankees are leading 3-2 now. Im hoping the Red Sox will say "now it's daddy's turn" and take them over 7.5. Nice parlay will hit. It doesn't feel good for sure. I thought yesterday the Red Sox were going to get shut out now and now Im thinking they'll get scrappy with some magic. Yankees out seems too good to be true but there will be game 3 if needed.
Ooh Im feeling some really nervous energy with the playoffs tonight. It would be big if the Yankees wrapped out tonight, but as this game persists, hard luck could be the difference because the Yankees bats are dangerous to the last out.
With 2 outs in the top of the 9th, it's safe to say they will have lost the game and the Yankees will have won. It has been definitely exciting, tomorrow will likely be a big day for many teams.
Hard to imagine Brewers and Reds head to head for theNL pennant but there is a small shot right now
As they lead early 2-0.
Dodgers look good against the Reds.
It would be nice to see Boston, Cleveland and San Diego win today.
Brewers playing Cubs, had nightmares about it all night. It was always my plan to hold my bets through the Brewers first round and reevaluate. They're not especially as good as they were in July in August. Nonetheless, in the playoffs Im rooting on Phillies, Mariners, Blue Jays, and Brewers. Oh damn though Cam Schlitter was fire against the Red Sox with his 12 strikeouts.
Brewers another day of batting practice since the Chicago Cubs never showed up. How sweet the Brewers could win 3-0. The bad news, Jackson Chourio had 3 hits at lead off then came out apparently injuring his hamstring again.
It's a shame Philly couldnt hold their lead and win and it's a shame the Mariners lost too. The odds have Philly dead in the water -320 for LA to win. Winning the first game of 5 tends to feel like victory for the series, but it isn't of course.
It's making me sick seeing the Phillies lose again and likely the series. I only hope they find a way to make LA suffer a long battle. I felt so optimistic after the Brewers first win almost as if they had won the series. It puts them in such great position to make the kill. Im predicting some unsung Brewers power waking up tonight.
Maybe the Phillies can win 1.5-2.5 more games. The Brewers are looking good against the Cubs. The power has come out for the Brewers tonight. The Brewers will be underdogs against the Dodgers at present moment in my opinion at a large measure right now.
Some pieces of the Dodgers were missing when tbe brewers sept them in 6 games, the Dodgers are beating Philly by a hair right now and the brewers won 4/7 against Phillies. Brewers bats are apparently doing well with rest from a long season. The Brewers can have the Dodgers call them daddy or be swept. Im feeling confident about the Brewers. It would be ironic if the Brewers swept all teams in playoffs, it would end on a 12 game winning streak counting their last win on 9/28/25. Seeing all these bets with world series max payout, it is exciting. I think Ill go raw during the pennant and hold all through. A Brewers-Blue Jays World Series is the ideal scenario for me.
I was really believing the Blue Jays would make their kill move, but the Yankees yankeed back. Now I'm guessing this series should go to Toronto most likely for a game 5. The Blue Jays will have put on a miraculous performance to win game 4 not to mention how much luck can get involved with errors. The Brewers should have a much better chance of winning tomorrow and should be a heavy favorite -150 but they're +105. I'm hoping to see Philly bats wake up and fight back on the Dodgers, but I'm certainly not expecting it. Once the inevitable Dodgers Brewers NLCS happens, I'd guess the Dodgers will be -180 or -200 but I'm feeling Dodgers -140 sounds closer to a true line. This could go to 7, sweep of 4 either way. At least for now it seems there is hope again for the Brewers with Misiorowski and Chourio. Hopefully Turang will get back to hitting after breaking his hitting streak of 5 games. A home run game could be coming from him soon and maybe a few. The Brewers do need that and Vaughn to be hot. He hit like Jesus Lou Gherig when he first started playing for the Brewers against the Dodgers. Now a good NLCS from him is the death weapon if he can hit like tball again against the Dodgers.
These playoffs are getting to me. I have to keep seeing Pete Crow Armstrong losing his temper and I dont like how everyone seems to enable him. He is a bitch, obviously just like his mom and I can't wait until he is crying after their next game when the Brewers end this already.
The Brewers are definitely breaking what is left of my heart.
Congratulations Brewers. Kind of funny the Brewers had 3 home runs as the Cubs had previously batted similarly. It's a perfect NLCS and ALCS. Im rooting for the Brewers Blue Jays world series.
Sad loss for the Brewers, and a shame them hitless for so long. Hopefully they can overcome the odds with Petalta on the mound, the man they held onto to win here. Woodruff can be so great if they win on to get him back in the world series. Just overall tonight's game was a disappointment I had hoped would be overcome and they failed. Yup, hitless but 1, the Brewers erred and lost. The Brewers lost to a walked in winning run and inconveniently not hit by a pitch.
Congratulations Blue Jays on a nice win. Brewers second to last chance tonight, they will need to replicate some of their season successes doo if ever. It does suck one freeze from Turang a tie game, maybe a victory. I can't blame him, a ball to the knee is too much not to avoid if it would in fact hit him there.
I am sorry to break it to you, Tuesdays, but the Dodgers are going to the World series again and will probably win it. Baseball isn't fair with salary caps like the NFL is, so a handful of teams have a huge advantage in being able to pay for the best players, which the Dodgers do. The only obstacle for the Dodgers right now is they seem to have a lot of guys (particularly pitchers) that will be on and off the DL many times during the regular season. So they do have to navigate the regular season, but once they get to the playoffs, they have the best team (or one of) that money can buy. :rolleyes:Quote:
Originally Posted by theywontpayontuesday
Sorry to Dan Druff if you don't like this comment. My Phillies are also in that small group of teams with the highest payrolls. They just don't do as good a job as the Dodgers with it.
Guess who else is in that small group....at the top actually....The New York Mets. They fail miserably at it year after year.
Yeah I know odds seem close to 100%, but not 100%. Certainly everyone including the Brewers may seem to view this series as hopeless for the Brewers. Must win game tonight, I hope they keep it close or get a healthy lead. The mIz will pitch I guess, Glasgow is one of the pitchers the Brewers can beat and so is Ohtani, so when they play we'll find out. Of course I do root for the Blue Jays too, and I do try and see a connection because they also needed to win game 3 and now they need to win to see a game 6 like teams hope for to see game 7. Omg though the actual odds of a Brewers and Blue Jays World Series has to be actually so bad it's funny.
Baseball really is fucked up with this salary cap discrepancy that ensures that a handful of big market teams that spend as much as they want will always have the top teams.
Take a look at the AL east. How the hell can a couple of small market teams like Baltimore and Tampa Bay compete with the Yankees? They can't! They may get lucky and developed a couple decent players through their system, but as soon as those players become free agents they are off to the Yankees, or Dodgres, or Phillies, or Mets or Red Sox.
Your Brewers are also a smaller market team. They do a great job of developing talent which enables them to be completive more than you would expect, but ultimately they suffer the same fate. As soon as their young talent becomes free agent eligible, they are off to one of the big boys.
A salary cap and revenue sharing from TV money is actually one of the things the NFL has done right. Small market teams like Jacksonville start out exactly the same as the larger market teams.
Quote:
Originally Posted by accountinquestion
Congratulations Blue Jays looking good to even the series up at this moment. Yup, Brewers are gone, but still 1% shot.
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the claim is that Ohtani just had the greatest game in MLB history -
even Babe Ruth never did anything remotely close to this
from the link:
"The starting pitcher for the Dodgers hit three home runs in one postseason game.
• Those three homers traveled a projected 1,342 feet — and it’s hard to know if that projection is accurate, since one of them left the stadium and might still be hopping along the Hollywood Freeway for all we know.
• Meanwhile, in his alternate life as an unhittable bat-destroyer, Ohtani spun off a 10-strikeout two-hitter over the six-plus innings he got to hang out on the mound.
• And hey, just for the fun of it, he threw two pitches harder than 100 mph.
• Oh, and he did this in the game that reserved the Dodgers’ all-expense-paid trip to the World Series, where they will try to become MLB’s first repeat champion in a quarter-century.
Don’t even bother asking: Has any team’s starting pitcher ever mashed three home runs in one postseason game? That’s hilarious. Of course no pitcher has ever had a three-homer game in any postseason.
Perhaps this would put those three long balls in better perspective: Only two starting pitchers have ever even hit two postseason home runs in their entire careers: Bob Gibson (in 1964 and ’68) and Dave McNally (in 1966 and ’74)."
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/672...stseason-game/
the
I slept through this game fortunately. It doesnt bother me much, im over it, it's not important.
The Blue Jays had been putting up a good fight and I'll assume they will take this to 6 or 7 games. Game 4 will be hard for the Blue Jays.
Last night was a wonderful game to watch if you didn't have money riding on it (or if you bet a total which hit in the 5th inning). :) It was just a fun game to watch, which is why I continued watching long after my wager was determined. BOTH teams had their chances.Quote:
Originally Posted by theywontpayontuesday
I know some people are feeling like the series is over. The Dodgers win tonight with Ohtani on the mound and hitting 2 homers. :D And then the only question is whether they wrap it up on Wednesday in LA or back in Toronto.
I am not so sure. My gut tells me the BlueJays win tonight. I will be putting some money on the Bluejays and the over. Ohtani only pitches 6 innings even when he is on fire and BOTH teams bullpens, which are their weaknesses, are very taxed after last night. I think there will be runs scored.
I am also thinking of throwing some money on the series line @ Toronto @ +450, with the sole intent of hedging if they are able to win tonight as I suspect. Haven't completely decided yet.
The one draw back is the Springer injury. If he is out that is a major loss. If he can play....is he anywhere close to right?
Game 4 was a really nice win for me, with Toronto winning @ +185. Unfortunately the Over 8 runs pushed. I could have used 1 more run in that Dodger 9th inning rally. Oh well.Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJLast night was a wonderful game to watch if you didn't have money riding on it (or if you bet a total which hit in the 5th inning). :) It was just a fun game to watch, which is why I continued watching long after my wager was determined. BOTH teams had their chances.Quote:
Originally Posted by theywontpayontuesday
I know some people are feeling like the series is over. The Dodgers win tonight with Ohtani on the mound and hitting 2 homers. :D And then the only question is whether they wrap it up on Wednesday in LA or back in Toronto.
I am not so sure. My gut tells me the BlueJays win tonight. I will be putting some money on the Bluejays and the over. Ohtani only pitches 6 innings even when he is on fire and BOTH teams bullpens, which are their weaknesses, are very taxed after last night. I think there will be runs scored.
I am also thinking of throwing some money on the series line @ Toronto @ +450, with the sole intent of hedging if they are able to win tonight as I suspect. Haven't completely decided yet.
The one draw back is the Springer injury. If he is out that is a major loss. If he can play....is he anywhere close to right?
I am also set up nicely on the series bet where I have 2 different wagers on Toronto @ +450 and +440. When the adjusted odds come out, I should have a really good hedging opportunity. I would love to see the odds close to 50/50, as it is now a 3 game series with 2 games in Toronto, but I suspect the Dodgers will still be as much as a -140 favorite. -140 on Dodgers would be a really good hedging opportunity, but even closer to -100 would be even better. we'll see what number pops up. :)
Edit: The early series adjusted numbers I see are Dodgers -180 and -190. That is disappointing. :(
Can still hedge and make decent money, but not what I was hoping. Will see how the number moves and what I want to do tomorrow. Still a really good place to be with a +440 on one team and a -180 on the other. I just want more. ;)
Some numbers. Toronto has scored 5 runs or more in 10 of it's 15 playoff games. They have won 8 of those 10 games. So 5 runs seems to be their magic number, although they did score 5 runs Monday and lost (one of the 2 losses). Two of the remaining 3 games will feature the Dodgers best 2 pitchers Snell tomorrow and Ohtani in game 7. But The BlueJays have already scored 11 and 6 runs in games that Snell and Ohtani started (5 and 4 runs off the two starters respectfully) so they have been able to score runs. Bottom line: Despite that the Dodgers have the better team, at this moment, I give Toronto a decent chance at winning this series.
The Blue Jays were 74-5 when scoring 5 runs. Anything can happen.Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
Well I have revised my plan regarding my two wagers on the BlueJays to win the series @ +440 and +450. Initially I thought that if Toronto won last night which they did, I could then hedge with the dodgers guaranteeing a nice with either way. But the Dodgers odds are lower than I expected or was hoping for at -190. I could still hedge and guarantee a smaller win either way.
Option 2 would be to hedge partway on the dodgers guaranteeing a break even if Dodgers win and still a decent win if Toronto wins
And Option 3 would be to just let my wager ride. I honestly think Toronto has a decent shot to win this series now and @ +450/+440, that would be really nice win for me.
I really thought hard and long about option 3, but in the end, I can't ignore the expected value and math. Too much of a gamble and I am about EV and math. So I am going with option #2. I line shopped and the best I could find was Dodgers @ -180 at a B & M book here in Vegas, so I went with that, just enough to guarantee break even if Dodgers win and still a decent win if Toronto wins. Sort of like a free roll bet on Toronto.
One of the reasons I now like Toronto so much is because they get production from their entire line-up. Even their 7-8-9 hitters. The Dodgers get nothing from their lower order hitters. They rely on 4 or 5 guys at the top of the line up to produce runs and one of those guys, Mookie Betts has given them nothing. So the Dodgers are really relying on 4 guys at this point. Now maybe Mookie turns it on and starts to contribute over these last 3 games, but I am not betting on that.