Technical Analysis and Gambling Returns

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Originally Posted by Rob.Singer

I don't know a lot about Greektown other than certain self-proclaimed "AP's" who live in the past wanting it to be that "a flock of Vegas AP's came out of their secret lurking spots and descended upon Detroit like a brand new muscle car design". But when it came to the Revel promotion where these clowns all proclaimed the same type of thing, I found out 1st hand that that was not the case, by going in 50-50 with someone I know is a REAL gambling pro who actually walks the streets of LV in plain view.

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This goes back about a dozen years, I guess. Singer was posting on FREEvpFREE, the free speech arm of vpFREE. He's was doing his everyday usual calling all AP's stupid. Then a new poster under the name Aces Up showed up on the site praising the virtues of Singer's martingale. Everyone knew Aces Up was a Singer sockpuppet. So Rob was posting every day under two different personna's, Rob Singer, and Aces Up. It was quite comical watching Rob Singer ranting about AP's then Aces Up totally agreeing with everything Rob said. But that wasn't as funny as what happened next. Rob got the two personna's tangled up and posted as Rob Singer under the Aces up username. Hysterically funny. Rob was the laughing stock of the site. He tried his best to lie his way out of it. He said he had somehow lost his account and Aces Up was gracious enough to loan him his account. Nice try, Rob. Of course, Aces Up was never heard from again. If you don't believe this story then go to the FREEvpFREE archives.

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

You are so wrong. Read the book by Weinstein or any other and you will see how random events are factored into prices which in turn become parts of chart patterns. Why am I arguing with people who know nothing about TA?

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Alan I did a quicky look at this Weinstein guy and he seems to have his own trading method called "stage analysis" which is all well and good but it is not technical analysis so I can see the communication breakdown between us. However I don't think applying stage analysis to gambling in any form is a wise use of human capitol either.

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Originally Posted by Rob.Singer

Red, if a machine keeps on spitting out winners, that machine is in a hot cycle. No question about it.

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Nope, the player is in a hot cycle.

Singer is backing off many of his previous claims. He claimed he could detect hot cycles and cold cycles by certain hands that appeared. Pure nonsense but what does on expect when Singer is the source.

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Originally Posted by quahaug

Alan I did a quicky look at this Weinstein guy and he seems to have his own trading method called "stage analysis" which is all well and good but it is not technical analysis so I can see the communication breakdown between us. However I don't think applying stage analysis to gambling in any form is a wise use of human capitol either.

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Stan is the technical analyst who developed the four stage model but it is actually widely used under other names. I can give you a dozen different names for patterns used in TA. I know analysts who look for wedges, flags and even flying saucers on charts.

Stock and financial analysis is either fundamental or technical. Technical simply is the interpretation of price charts -- patterns of price changes. Everything else whether it's earnings or sales or profits or inventory ratios is "fundamental analysis."

When I wrote for Barron's Investment News and Views section analyzing companies I had to combine technical and fundamental analysis to reach all the readers.

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Originally Posted by arcimede$

Nope, the player is in a hot cycle.

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This is groundbreaking! So instead of TA finding out if the machine is in a hot cycle, it might help to discern whether the player is in a hot cycle. I'll take that!

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

This is groundbreaking! So instead of TA finding out if the machine is in a hot cycle, it might help to discern whether the player is in a hot cycle. I'll take that!

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Nothing grounding breaking, just normal random variation.

And, there's nothing you can do to discern a future random set of events.

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Originally Posted by arcimede$

Nothing grounding breaking, just normal random variation.

And, there's nothing you can do to discern a future random set of events.

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Except AP's of course. Somehow they magically can determine the future whenever they are behind. You yourself have claimed to be behind for the year several times in the past, then immediately tried to make us feel all warm & fuzzy by saying how you KNEW you'd be ahead by year's end because "the math" somehow told you so. And of course, BINGO! You claimed to be winning shortly afterwards!

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Originally Posted by fpdw2015

This goes back about a dozen years, I guess. Singer was posting on FREEvpFREE, the free speech arm of vpFREE. He's was doing his everyday usual calling all AP's stupid. Then a new poster under the name Aces Up showed up on the site praising the virtues of Singer's martingale. Everyone knew Aces Up was a Singer sockpuppet. So Rob was posting every day under two different personna's, Rob Singer, and Aces Up. It was quite comical watching Rob Singer ranting about AP's then Aces Up totally agreeing with everything Rob said. But that wasn't as funny as what happened next. Rob got the two personna's tangled up and posted as Rob Singer under the Aces up username. Hysterically funny. Rob was the laughing stock of the site. He tried his best to lie his way out of it. He said he had somehow lost his account and Aces Up was gracious enough to loan him his account. Nice try, Rob. Of course, Aces Up was never heard from again. If you don't believe this story then go to the FREEvpFREE archives.

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Let's see you prove that lie Mickey.

BTW, you give yourself away every time you post about somewhere in the distant past. Why? Because you have no life today, and a quick check reveals how your future is very dark indeed.

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Originally Posted by Rob.Singer

Red, academia is always deficient when it comes to anything outside of textbook theory. These people are like the armchair AP's--they theorize about what the issue is and then come up with what people like them want to hear.

For instance, this discussion about Brodie, and now Greektown. AP's want it to be that Brodie was the "victim" of a "technician's error". He wasn't. Caesar's knew that's what he requested so they gave it to him. The pedestrian part of the story reads like an AP-Hammer's-Another-Casino best-seller, but I was clearly told that Brodie made the request. A lower level suit initially denied the request but was overridden by his Director.

I don't know a lot about Greektown other than certain self-proclaimed "AP's" who live in the past wanting it to be that "a flock of Vegas AP's came out of their secret lurking spots and descended upon Detroit like a brand new muscle car design". But when it came to the Revel promotion where these clowns all proclaimed the same type of thing, I found out 1st hand that that was not the case, by going in 50-50 with someone I know is a REAL gambling pro who actually walks the streets of LV in plain view.

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Originally Posted by arcimede$

Nope, the player is in a hot cycle.

Singer is backing off many of his previous claims. He claimed he could detect hot cycles and cold cycles by certain hands that appeared. Pure nonsense but what does on expect when Singer is the source.

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I was unaware he backed off his claims on hot/cold cycles.? They're pretty obvious to see and have saved me much grief. I was like everyone else and tried to play thru them and ended up like Alan, playing several hours on ddbp. I learned the hard way.

Granted we are all subject to "selective memory" but I can't remember sitting down at a machine and going through a budget busting losing cycle and then miraculously hitting a royal. My "selective memory" tells me that every royal came after some sort of rally or run of winning hands. Of course, this is just selective memory. But if I had charts of the actual meter amounts it would help clear this up.

And that's all I'm suggesting: charting the meter amounts to see what they might show.

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Originally Posted by slingshot

I was unaware he backed off his claims on hot/cold cycles.? They're pretty obvious to see and have saved me much grief. I was like everyone else and tried to play thru them and ended up like Alan, playing several hours on ddbp. I learned the hard way.

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If you play the game with a real deck of cards on your kitchen table you will also see those hot and cold streaks. The problem is what are you going to do with this information.

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Originally Posted by fpdw2015

If you play the game with a real deck of cards on your kitchen table you will also see those hot and cold streaks. The problem is what are you going to do with this information.

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If cold you can stop playing. If hot, move up in denomination. See my original post.

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

If cold you can stop playing. If hot, move up in denomination. See my original post.

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The problem is what you've seen is all in the past and has no bearing on the future. Nevada Gaming regulations clearly state there can be no internal bias and one event cannot effect another event.

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Originally Posted by Rob.Singer

BTW, you give yourself away every time you post about somewhere in the distant past. Why? Because you have no life today, and a quick check reveals how your future is very dark indeed.

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Malignant Narcissism. "A psychological syndrome comprising an extreme mix of narcissism, antisocial personality disorder, aggression and sadism. Often grandiose and always ready to raise hostility levels, the malignant narcissist undermines the organizations in which they are involved and dehumanizes the people with whom they associate. The MN has a psychological need for power and a sense of importance. He/she is pathologically grandiose, lacking in conscience and behavioral regulation with characteristic demonstrations of joyful cruely."

Mr. Singer is the poster boy for malignant narcissism.

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Originally Posted by fpdw2015

The problem is what you've seen is all in the past and has no bearing on the future. Nevada Gaming regulations clearly state there can be no internal bias and one event cannot effect another event.

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Technical Analysis (charting) is not a measure of bias or rigged machines. It would only plot points on a graph with the goal of seeing after dozens or hundreds of plotted points if any pattern develops.

THERE MIGHT NOT BE ANY PATTERN.
But we'll never know until the points are plotted. If a pattern is found THEN we'd have to see if they are true indicators.

What patterns would we look for?
Head and shoulders that lead to a slump.
Reverse head and shoulders that lead to a win.
Flags that lead to a big win.
Tops that follow rallies that lead to a breakdown.

There are patterns in nature. And the idea is that patterns show in all things.

Have you had a pattern in your life, perhaps when you could do nothing wrong?

Have you had times when nothing goes your way?

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Originally Posted by slingshot

I was unaware he backed off his claims on hot/cold cycles.? They're pretty obvious to see and have saved me much grief. I was like everyone else and tried to play thru them and ended up like Alan, playing several hours on ddbp. I learned the hard way.

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Sling, give the poor guy a break. After all, what do you think such a confused soul like him is doing today and can you imagine how he must dread the holidays? Let's cut him some slack when he makes these things up. Deb would certainly approve :)

This is getting weird.

The definition of random has been lost here, and that explains about 10,000 posts going back years.

If finding a "pattern" in past random events does not lead to predictive ability regarding future events, then of what significance is the "pattern?" If the "pattern" reveals a repetitive cause-and-effect or a predictable sequence, then the events are, by definition, not "random." Either the analysis of past random events yields no predictive value, or the events are not random.

The events cannot be half-random. They cannot be random in some one-by-one analysis but somehow non-random in an overarching sense.

This reminds me of some of the data analysis of JB Rhine's parapsychology subjects at Duke. When data provided no straightforward evidence of psychic abilities, the data was mined for "patterns." Some were found, of course, because if you are looking for undefined "patterns," something always emerges. But then the subjects whose histories provided the "patterns" were tested going forward, and there were no "patterns" going forward. Some people labeled this "the shyness effect." Others labeled it an artifact of the data.

Try to deal with this redietz: even "random" can have a pattern.

Not (as redietz has clearly stated so that almost anyone could understand) if it's random.

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

Try to deal with this redietz: even "random" can have a pattern.

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Well Alan, have at it. Flip a coin 100 times, analyze the pattern, then tell us how many correct calls you can make on future flips.