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Won again last night, to take me to 16-2 in last 18.
Today:
Baltimore (Hess) at Tampa Bay (Romo) - Under 8.5 -120
Arizona (Corbin) +122 at Oakland (Manaea)
NOTES: No, I haven't gone crazy. Baltimore/TB over is a Trapper John MD line. Go the opposite way. Yes, it's THAT Romo starting.
Arizona will break out of their losing streak today, at least for the moment. They're 1-12 in their last 13, but don't let that scare you.
Baltimore game starting in 10-15 min.
Let's throw one more onto the pile. This is another I agonized over picking, but decided to go with it.
Again, public very much on other side.
Kansas City (Skoglund) at Texas (Minor) - Under 9.5 -110
Starts at 5:05pm PDT, so not much time left
Shouldn't have tossed in that last-minute KC under. That one was crap the whole way.
The other two won easily. Now 17-3 since May 12.
Through 5/23: 58-43-2, +17.311 units
5/24:
at Tampa Bay (Snell) +110 vs. Boston (Porcello) - WON +1.100
Total: 1-0, +1.100 units
5/25:
Baltimore (Hess) at Tampa Bay (Romo) - Under 8.5 -120 - WON +0.833
Arizona (Corbin) +122 at Oakland (Manaea) - WON +1.220
Kansas City (Skoglund) at Texas (Minor) - Under 9.5 -110 - LOST -1
Total: 2-1, +1.053 units
5/24-5/25 total: 3-1, +2.153 units
GRAND TOTAL: 61-44-2, +19.464 units
Overs: 2-3
Spread (-1.5): 2-1
Unders: 36-22-2
Moneyline: 21-18 (a good deal ahead in units due to mostly underdogs)
Here is a Trapper John MD pick for the day (that is, an opposite of the trap line).
Starting in about 20 minutes (1:10pm PDT). Enjoy!
White Sox (H. Santiago) +103 at Detroit (F. Liriano)
Considering Giants under for a bit later today. Stay tuned.
White Sox took it down.
One more for the evening, starting at 7:10pm:
San Diego (Lyles) at Dodgers (Wood) - Under 7 -105
Spectacular stuff, Dan. The dogs have been solid. Whatever you're doing, keep doing it.
Sunday is the toughest day to handicap in MLB, and this is no exception.
Probably won't make any picks today.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Sounds good. Teams make these spur-of-the-morning decisions on holding regulars out, and some of the decisions always surprise me.
Trapper John MD line this morning involving Verlander on the road, but even I can't fire against it. Domingo German (Yankees) has just been so awful lately, and Verlander has been so locked in... and the prize for correctly fading Verlander is a tiny bit above even money. Can't do it.
Also a bunch of sharps going with Baltimore at home against Washington. Normally that would be intriguing, but Alex Cobb is just so bad that this is unappealing. 7.32/1.932 through 8 starts. I mean, seriously.
So I'll sit those out.
And again, sharps are fading Degrom as he pitches on the road against the Braves and rookie Max Fried. This one again would be interesting to perhaps back Atlanta, but +100 isn't worth fading Degrom at this point, who so far has been the 2018 NL Cy Young winner.
I do like one early game though:
St. Louis (Weaver) +102 at Milwaukee (Suter)
Weaver has been pitching much better lately, and he has something to prove, as Alex Reyes is about to join the rotation, and Carlos Martinez will show back up in early-mid June. At that point, there will be 6 Cardinals starters, and one of the remaining ones will have to take a seat.
Game starts at 11:10am PDT
More later (maybe)
I'm 0-2 since my 18-3 run.
Let's try to turn it around with the 2nd game of the Braves/Mets doubleheader, starting in about half an hour (4:10pm PDT)
Mets (Conlon) at Atlanta (McCarthy) - Under 9 -108
So here is a losing streak, albeit a small one.
Took 21 picks to lose 3 games, and now I'm 0-3 since.
Let's shake things up a bit. How about an over pick?
Washington (Hellickson) at Baltimore (Bundy) - Over 9 -120
Let's add another element to the Baltimore game.
at Baltimore -108 (Bundy) vs. Washington (Hellickson)
Starts at 4:05pm PDT
I admittedly know nothing about MLB betting, but I'm trying to figure out how Baltimore could have possibly been favored in that matchup. They have the worst run differential in the AL, and Washington's pitcher has only given up more than 2 runs once this season.
Five losses in a row.
Seems like my worst losing streaks come immediately after a very hot run.
Today I'm not going to take the easy way out by simply firing on a big favorite.
Instead, I'll be staring down a potential 6th straight loss with this sole underdog pick:
Houston (Keuchel) +180 at Yankees (Severino)
NOTES: Severino shut out Houston in a complete game earlier this month, but acknowledged that otherwise he's gotten "crushed" by the Astros, including in the playoffs last year.
Yankees will be resting Greg Bird and Brett Gardner. Astros will be resting George Springer, and Brian McCann just hit the DL.
The public favors this one, but not heavily. If you don't like betting with the public, skip this one.
Hellickson has gotten off to a decent start this season, but he doesn't have much endurance. He's made it through 6 innings only once. Indeed, he almost got blown out in the 5th inning, but barely finished it and the team squeaked out a 3-2 win. He also looked horrible last year, and struggled badly against AL pitching.Quote:
Originally Posted by Guy Incognito
NL pitchers tend to struggle in AL parks because they're not used to the DH, though so far that hasn't happened as much this year, for whatever reason.
There are some other factors, as well.
Often the +EV bet is the one that seems very wrong on the surface. Sometimes, of course, they don't work out and you look like a fool, as the "obvious" side ends up winning.
The thing about baseball that makes it different from most betting sports is the 3 or 4 game "series". In baseball.....in a 3 game series between a bottom tier team and a top tier team.....the bottom tier team will most likely win one out of 3 in a series. Even though the top tier team will be favored in all 3.
A bottom tier team in the course of the year, will peobably go on a 7 game winning streak, or 8 out of 10. It just the way the ball bounces.
As bad as baltimore is.....they did have a week where they looked like an emerging team....but that fizzled. San Diego has had good stretches. And conversely ..reaL good teams in the course of a season will lose a bunch of games in a row like Ariz did this year, and like LA did at the end of last year.
In baseball its getting on the winning or losing train of various teams and either betting on them or against them. More than anyother sport..baseball is a game of streaks. And being on the wrong side of streaks is death to bettors.
I'm not saying you're wrong but I'm skeptical about the correctness of that statement.Quote:
Originally Posted by LarryS
I would like to see some kind of proof of that.
If an MLB team has won 3 in a row and their upcoming starting pitcher is weak they would seem less likely to win the next game then an NBA team unless injuries are a factor.
Just statistically its more likely to happen in a season of 162 games vis 81 games in basketball or 16 games in NFL.Quote:
Originally Posted by Half SmokeI'm not saying you're wrong but I'm skeptical about the correctness of that statement.Quote:
Originally Posted by LarryS
I would like to see some kind of proof of that.
If an MLB team has won 3 in a row and their upcoming starting pitcher is weak they would seem less likely to win the next game then an NBA team unless injuries are a factor.
A 9-1 winning record during some period of a 162 game season s much more common in MLB for a weaker team than in other sports You will never see a lower tier team in the nfl go through a9 -1 or and 8-2 stretch. And its very uncommon in the nba for a lower tier team to do well for a 10 game stretch.
Conversely it isnt out ofthe ordinary for an upper tier team in a 162 game season to lose 10 in a row or go 1-9.
Arizona, a first place team just did it. Pittsburg has a winning streak and is now looking like a last place team.They had an 8-2 stretch..and now is in next to last in national league central
Washington, ..one of the better teams in the east has a 2-8 stretch.
There are already a 8-10 streaky teams this year that have either won or lost 8 out of 10 in MLB and the season is not even close to half over.
And itwill continue....because thats what a baseball season is.....a season of streaks both winning streals and losing streaks.
All it takes is a botton tier team to meet up with 3 teams in a row that arent playing their best a the time...and the pathetic lower tier team can put together a 8-2 record during some time in the season. WHne you play 162 games......the bottom teir team may end up with a 333 record.....but its not going to always be WWL, WWL, LWW, WLW. there will be a WWWLLWWWWW sector in there some time in a long season where everything just falls right.
of course we are talking about wins and losses accross all games to keep the apples to apples compariosn
Of course in NFL and NBA a lower tier team can go on a "covering" streak.....but thats not what MLB is all about.
Quote:
Originally Posted by LarryS
I get what you're saying but it's useless info unless you can state a method of predicting when these streaks will begin and/or continue.
If you can't (and I don't know how anybody could) then it's just like the guys on crapsforum.com talking about their big scores playing streaks implying falsely that it constitutes a winning method or system.
and I'm not saying that you were implying that or that anything you said was false. just pointing it out.
You are right, I didnt say that the streaks could be predicted. I was responding to the person who was talking to Dan about baltimore being a fave even though it is a horible team. And speaking to the fact that dan goes with the dog. SO i was just commenting that dog betting is a decent way to go seeing that even the worst teams can go on a 8 game winning streak, and even the best teams can go on a 10 game losing streak while both are relatively healthy.Quote:
Originally Posted by Half SmokeQuote:
Originally Posted by LarryS
I get what you're saying but it's useless info unless you can state a method of predicting when these streaks will begin and/or continue.
If you can't (and I don't know how anybody could) then it's just like the guys on crapsforum.com talking about their big scores playing streaks implying falsely that it constitutes a winning method or system.
and I'm not saying that you were implying that or that anything you said was false. just pointing it out.
Its just the way baseball is.
And like I said, in a 3 game baseball series or 4 game series.....the worst team in baseball will ,likely win one of the 3 or 4 games.