Advantage Keno Play

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Originally Posted by Seedvalue

One last thing Kew, this is the last time I will respond to you.

I only made an effort to find you because of your insistence I was toll. No need to rehash it, but

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Seedvalue, I don't want to fight with you (never did), nor rehash this, but this isn't exactly the way this went down. I didn't insist anything. I speculated you were Toll based on information from what I considered a reliable source, who told me you were Toll or associated with him. I am not going to say who and throw anyone under the bus. I said it and I take and took responsibility. And when Dan Druff stepped forward and confirmed that you were not Toll, I acknowledged that and apologized to you....several times.

I don't know who you are or what you make or have made. And I don't care. I don't say that to be dismissive. I don't measure myself against others, what others make or do. I do my thing, have my goals, and am very happy with where I am and what I have accomplished. In another month, it will be 20 years.

I am sort of an introvert type person and solo play suits me well. Even when I have partnered with one or two close people that I trust, I am just better suited for solo type play. That is my thing.

Seems to be a change in you in the past few days. I don't know if you are going through something, like a medical issue....I hope not. But whatever. I wish you well and happiness.

Seed: If you depart and do not return, so be it; you're right, this shit really doesn't matter.

What matters is the people we surround ourselves with and how we treat one another; online forums are basically an escape valve.

If what you said above about your career and family is correct then yeah, it seems you did well for yourself.

Oh, I'm not envious about your cock: I simply don't believe you; but even if it were true, WGAS?

It don't mean nothin'.

Don't kid yourself. Your family will take the money, and, run. Coins in old cigar boxes. Ha.

As for SV, I'll never get over people who think that they aren't anything unless something really big.

Must be a hell of a daily existence, the tossing and turning over who believes you on anonymous gambling forums that you don't even own. One fake soul-searching schizophrenic episode after another.

People who didn't truly develop themselves, or their minds.

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Originally Posted by redietz

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Originally Posted by Mission146

I'm unwilling to discuss private conversations, but I will say that I have reason to believe that SeedValue is legitimately an advantage player. This should not be taken as an absolute endorsement of ALL of his claims (it isn't) or an endorsement that people should work with him (I've never worked with him and don't know what he's like off-forum), but he does know some things that only someone who knows what he's doing would know.

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Well, here's a quandary for you, Mission. If you have someone who "does know some things that only someone who knows what he's doing would know" who also DOES NOT know some things that anyone who knows what they're doing would know, what do you do with that? I mean the question sincerely, because I buy all the Seedvalue spiels about non-sports "AP" play. Of course, I know crap about most forms of "AP" play, so why wouldn't I buy them? But then he says some bizarro stuff, like when he didn't know prostitution was illegal in LV, and it's like fingernails on a chalkboard.

It's not like I'm looking to debunk Seedvalue. He just says some things that are eye-poppingly wrong, and because I've actually spent 50 years betting sports, and because I spent 20-plus years traipsing all over LV a hundred days a year, I'm evidently more aware of his completely off kilter comments when he makes them. That whole spiel of his about not liking to bet sports because it's behind a computer and he's not hands-on raping the casino cash boxes in person -- I mean, LOL. C'mon, man. Do your business in person! How hard is that? It's not like you're more likely to be banned/restricted because you give the casinos some facetime. You may be LESS likely to be banned/restricted betting sports if you do things hands on.

Some of the Seedvalue spiels are bizarrely off, and I'm not talking about the dong references. And it's not because anybody quizzed him; he just inserts discordant crap because he doesn't know it's discordant. He makes assumptions about sports betting that are in line with assumptions about other types of gambling, but his sports betting assumptions happen to be not quite right. He presumes things that shouldn't be presumed, and because those presumptions line up with various forms of "AP" play, most people buy it.

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Once again, I'm not endorsing him or stating that everything that he has ever said is completely factual. I'm simply suggesting that, based on private conversations, a non-zero amount of what he claims (and I don't even know as to the extent of those being true) seems valid. I've never met the guy in person, done business with him, etc...

Anyway, all I said is that I believe that SeedValue is legitimately an advantage player. I didn't even present that as a statement of fact, but rather, one of opinion.

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Originally Posted by Seedvalue

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Originally Posted by Mission146

I'm unwilling to discuss private conversations, but I will say that I have reason to believe that SeedValue is legitimately an advantage player. This should not be taken as an absolute endorsement of ALL of his claims (it isn't) or an endorsement that people should work with him (I've never worked with him and don't know what he's like off-forum), but he does know some things that only someone who knows what he's doing would know.

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I got mad respect for your knowledge bro. Other then that one thing with the con. You sometimes slip in dark sentences in your writing about death or not caring about shit. I know you don’t believe in God and that’s cool everyone has their beliefs. Live life for your family they care they are the reason. Sometimes when I would read your stuff it seemed like you were depressed. Idk maybe I’m wrong anyway just saying you helped many wiry your writing even tho I wished at times you stfu.

O and I’ve never recruited from these boards you literally are the only person I’ve ever offered anything to. I like to recruit and build my own. No bad habits to deal with that way. Teams make millions in this game in my opinion. Time is the problem we all need to deal with teams help solve that problem. Idk l

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Thank you for saying so; that's very kind of you. I also appreciate you making the offer you did. As you know, after our private conversations, I'd probably accept the same offer today. I declined mostly out of paranoia and also not wanting to be blamed if things went in the toilet on the play, stuff getting killed, etc...you know the deal.

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

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Originally Posted by 1Hit1der

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

So the main game payback is: 8.3333/16.63158 = 50.1%.

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I'm not a Keno player. What happens over the other about 16 tries, given a win of about 8 units over about 17 tries? Lose $0.75 over the other 16 tries?

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You'll average missing the 2-spot 15.63158 games out of 16.63158 games. You'll average hitting the 2-spot once every 16.63158 games....which pays 8.3333 for 1.

8.3333/16.63158 = 50.1%.

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Mission, while you're here, can you explain Mickey's explanation above?

I guess that another reason to have mathematicians explain stuff is that the explanations become universal. I don't know that he's correct, but, I do know that no one explains anything, that way.

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Originally Posted by Mission146

Once again, I'm not endorsing him or stating that everything that he has ever said is completely factual. I'm simply suggesting that, based on private conversations, a non-zero amount of what he claims (and I don't even know as to the extent of those being true) seems valid. I've never met the guy in person, done business with him, etc...

Anyway, all I said is that I believe that SeedValue is legitimately an advantage player. I didn't even present that as a statement of fact, but rather, one of opinion.

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"a non-zero amount of what he claims seems valid".

That is quite a glowing endorsement. :rolleyes:

Yeah, Mission is caught between the Wizard garbage, and the new thus place that he works for.

How anyone could take SV for anything but a sick(?) fool, given the vacuous stuff he spewed here and there, for years, is beyond me. Maybe, jdog. Ha.

And yeah, sure, Mission146 is another gambling genius (because SV said so, and, versa).


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Originally Posted by 1Hit1der

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

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Originally Posted by 1Hit1der

I'm not a Keno player. What happens over the other about 16 tries, given a win of about 8 units over about 17 tries? Lose $0.75 over the other 16 tries?

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You'll average missing the 2-spot 15.63158 games out of 16.63158 games. You'll average hitting the 2-spot once every 16.63158 games....which pays 8.3333 for 1.

8.3333/16.63158 = 50.1%.

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Mission, while you're here, can you explain Mickey's explanation above?

I guess that another reason to have mathematicians explain stuff is that the explanations become universal. I don't know that he's correct, but, I do know that no one explains anything, that way.

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What is there to explain? While that's not the way I would have done it, the conclusion is clearly that the two-spot base return is 50.1%, approximately.

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Originally Posted by Mission146

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Originally Posted by 1Hit1der

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

You'll average missing the 2-spot 15.63158 games out of 16.63158 games. You'll average hitting the 2-spot once every 16.63158 games....which pays 8.3333 for 1.

8.3333/16.63158 = 50.1%.

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Mission, while you're here, can you explain Mickey's explanation above?

I guess that another reason to have mathematicians explain stuff is that the explanations become universal. I don't know that he's correct, but, I do know that no one explains anything, that way.

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What is there to explain? While that's not the way I would have done it, the conclusion is clearly that the two-spot base return is 50.1%, approximately.

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Does that mean that that game is positive EV, to begin?

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Originally Posted by 1Hit1der

Yeah, Mission is caught between the Wizard garbage, and the new thus place that he works for.

How anyone could take SV for anything but a sick(?) fool, given the vacuous stuff he spewed here and there, for years, is beyond me. Maybe, jdog. Ha.

And yeah, sure, Mission146 is another gambling genius (because SV said so, and, versa).


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I don't think he said, 'Genius' and nor would I consider myself a genius. I'm somewhat knowledgeable when it comes to gambling math and general advantage play. I'm capable of figuring out the expected value of some plays that others aren't, but I'd hardly consider myself top-tier in that regard. Anything that would require a unique computer simulation (or computer math) is totally beyond me because I don't know the first thing about programming.

For example, if you had a highly specific angle on a very complicated game, let's say Ultimate Texas Hold 'Em, the best that I could probably do is estimate your EV from the return charts while assuming no change to strategy. If you wanted a new optimal strategy to maximize EV, then I would either be unable to do it, or alternatively, it would be so time consuming that I couldn't justify doing it for free. Why free? I've never charged anyone for math work and don't plan to do so.

What makes keno plays easier is that there's no change to strategy aside from it might be better to play a four spot than all others, depending on the game in question, or whatever the case. It's pure probability determination with fewer variables, such as a player deciding to do one thing as opposed to another.

If SV thinks I'm a, 'Gambling genius,' and I don't think he does, then he's way overrating my abilities.

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Originally Posted by 1Hit1der

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Originally Posted by Mission146

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Originally Posted by 1Hit1der

Mission, while you're here, can you explain Mickey's explanation above?

I guess that another reason to have mathematicians explain stuff is that the explanations become universal. I don't know that he's correct, but, I do know that no one explains anything, that way.

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What is there to explain? While that's not the way I would have done it, the conclusion is clearly that the two-spot base return is 50.1%, approximately.

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Does that mean that that game is positive EV, to begin?

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No. Crimm's other post detailed that it's not. I think the base return was 90% and change, or something.

I recall that you wrote that you do this stuff for the money. And, that SV wrote, loosely speaking, that you could clean up if you cared about the money, how "sharp" you are. So, it just seems, to me, that he really doesn't understand what the word, sharp, means.

Where did Mickey calculate the return of 90%? It makes sense that the 50.1% becomes part of another calculation, but, not without considering the amount lost while waiting for the 2 numbers to hit.

That we're let not only to Mickey's word about the overall result of, say, $500 a day, but, also to that of his very calculations. So far, no comment, from him either, about spuriously claiming that Uknowme's play was a straight-up 216% play.

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Originally Posted by 1Hit1der

I recall that you wrote that you do this stuff for the money. And, that SV wrote, loosely speaking, that you could clean up if you cared about the money, how "sharp" you are. So, it just seems, to me, that he really doesn't understand what the word, sharp, means.

Where did Mickey calculate the return of 90%? It makes sense that the 50.1% becomes part of another calculation, but, not without considering the amount lost while waiting for the 2 numbers to hit.

That we're let not only to Mickey's word about the overall result of, say, $500 a day, but, also to that of his very calculations. So far, no comment, from him either, about spuriously claiming that Uknowme's play was a straight-up 216% play.

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I do advantage play and write for the money; everyone does any job that they do for the money, though I don't consider the advantage play aspect a 'job,' per se. Some would say that writing isn't a job. If what those people mean is that it doesn't produce anything, then I'd have to agree with them.

In any event, that's different from calling me a, 'Genius.'

Anyway, you'll forgive me, but this is a pointless conversation for me to have. My articles are out there and my over ten year posting history is out there. If you think I'm a genius, you're wrong, but that's fine. If you think I have more gambling knowledge than the average person, by now, I would sure the fuck hope so. If you think I'm a blithering idiot, then that's also fine.

If we're arguing about some specific factual point such that I'm definitely right and you're arguing with me for no reason, then not only will I prove myself right, but I'll be a condescending asshole while I do. If we disagree about a point and you try to poke holes in my arguments politely, then you will get the same politeness in kind. (There are a few exceptions, people for whom I have permanently lost all patience, but you're not one of them.)

As far as being rich if I wanted to be, I have no idea---never tried it and don't really care. Could I, 'Get rich,' with a starting bankroll of 100k or if I was willing to put in the time and dedication to amass a bankroll of 100k? I would say that I likely have enough knowledge and ability to figure out angles (on top of the stuff I already know) to do so, but there would still be the matter of my risk-averse tendencies, even if I had the motivation, which I don't.

Also, the most successful advantage players...at least, when it comes to guys doing promos, cards and machine play...spend a lot of time in casinos. I mean, a lot of time. In many cases, well in excess of forty hours per week. I would say that you'd either have to have a true passion for being in casinos and gambling, or alternatively, be a gambling addict that just happens to know how to feed the addiction profitably---your choice.

For me, in order to make big bank, the gambling itself would become a job, as it does for anyone. I don't like the actual being in casinos/gambling aspect enough to want it to be a full-time job. It seems quite a miserable way to live, but that's just my opinion. I will say that I think Crimm has a setup that I could at least tolerate, if not enjoy; you hop around from place to place (of which there are many), get in and get out. There's truly nothing worse, at least in my opinion, than being on one play, in one casino, for a half a day or more. Even if you run better than EV, you always leave asking yourself if such a miserable experience was worth it. It's also kind of like that on any play where you lose money, as well, even if the EV is there. If there's one thing I absolutely hate, it's losing...you have to live with it though.

Mickey calculated his Video Keno play and explained it, in detail, over a few posts. If you have another specific question (like the 50.1%) feel free to ask. I'm not going to re-explain everything that he already explained; if you want an aspect of it clarified, then just ask the question.

I see kewl doesn't try to deny the picture.

Mission. Thanks for the explanation. I thought that I would familiarize myself with one of Mickey's plays, but, I'm not going through hoops to figure it out. Nor does it appear that anyone will. Regardless, it seems as though he has boxed himself into the same stale routine, without even any monetary growth potential. Years ago, I likened it to going through a lot of pay phones to look for quarters. The day that he dies is the same day that whatever he thinks he's doing, it will end in his tracks, without anyone to post about it on equally dead gambling forums.

Another of Einstein's quotes had to do with repeating the same thing, but expecting a different result. You guys are just grinding yourselves into the ground. Won't have to bury youze. Ha.

Same as SV. The guy who made every one he knew into millionaires, but, never gave away a single play.

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Originally Posted by 1Hit1der

I thought that I would familiarize myself with one of Mickey's plays, but, I'm not going through hoops to figure it out. Nor does it appear that anyone will.

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I thought about turning on the lights, but who could possibly figure out how to operate the switch?

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Originally Posted by 1Hit1der

How anyone could take SV for anything but a sick(?) fool, given the vacuous stuff he spewed here and there, for years

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I think most around here would say the same about you. Are you really clueless enough to not know that??

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Originally Posted by 1Hit1der

Mission. Thanks for the explanation. I thought that I would familiarize myself with one of Mickey's plays, but, I'm not going through hoops to figure it out. Nor does it appear that anyone will. Regardless, it seems as though he has boxed himself into the same stale routine, without even any monetary growth potential. Years ago, I likened it to going through a lot of pay phones to look for quarters. The day that he dies is the same day that whatever he thinks he's doing, it will end in his tracks, without anyone to post about it on equally dead gambling forums.

Another of Einstein's quotes had to do with repeating the same thing, but expecting a different result. You guys are just grinding yourselves into the ground. Won't have to bury youze. Ha.

Same as SV. The guy who made every one he knew into millionaires, but, never gave away a single play.

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You don't have to go through hoops; if there's something in his series of posts you don't understand, then ask a question and I'll be happy to answer. I'm simply choosing not to reexplain the entire play from scratch when I think he explained it in a clearly understandable way the first time. Even if the no monetary growth potential is true, most people do their jobs in life without any significant monetary growth potential.

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Originally Posted by Don Perignom

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Originally Posted by 1Hit1der

I thought that I would familiarize myself with one of Mickey's plays, but, I'm not going through hoops to figure it out. Nor does it appear that anyone will.

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I thought about turning on the lights, but who could possibly figure out how (---> who) to operate the switch?

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Thanks, again, DP. I was just waiting for the "dope" of this thread, Jdog, to rear his ugly head, again, right after your latest post, about who has the mental capacity to operate the light switch.

This time, by removing the letters V, C, and T, instead of ensuring they are in the anagram solution from before, at https://vegascasinotalk.com/forum/sh...l=1#post171777 . To yield an even better rendering of my avatar, which DP was so gracious to provide free of charge.

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Originally Posted by 1Hit1der View Post

I thought that I would familiarize myself with one of MiCkey's plays but I'm not going Through hoops to figure it out. Nor does it appear that anyone will.

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---> A dope will get you through times of no money better than money will get you through times of no dope.

https://anagram-solver.net/Originall...l?partial=true


Anyway, it makes sense that with the money, then buy the dope, unless it's an internet "dope", which, I guess, is the reason that MDawg hangs around. Internet dopes like the ones at VCT can't be bought.

I think that that's (our resident legal fiend) MrV in the middle, preceded by ex-member, but, still crazy "transmission" Blackhole (back to life on the outside), followed by psychotic Seedvalue (who still doesn't know that he's coming, or going). Ha.



I think that a promotion to "Anagram Man" is in order for the DP. Just substitute that for "Rubber-band Man". Good going, DP!

https://youtu.be/KSMVflSBKx8