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Damn Jays!Quote:
Originally Posted by monet
Ouchie on the Blue Jays Run Line.Quote:
Originally Posted by dannyj
Lots of overs today.
Tigers still losing.
Braves and Yanks still winning.
This AVs Game 1 is pretty darn good for my viewing pleasure!
I was going to ask who you liked in game 1. I ended up taking the plus money on TBL. Oh well, good game though.
Looks like I’ll end up 2 out of 3 on both my parlays.
Let’s not gloss over my +541 hit yesterday.
Back at it tomorrow.
Sitting 118th out of 26K in FanDuel golf early in the PGA. Probably my highwater mark, but I still have Dustin Johnson and Tommy Fleetwood to tee off. If they do anything, I can crack the top hundred.
Moved up to 47th. Could be an interesting day.
Well, this is sick. I may as well brag about it while I can. You pick six golfers. Three of mine are tied for first. The other three haven't teed off yet. LOL. It's all downhill from here.
Red Sox RL
Padres RL
Phillies OV 9
+668
That's aggravating.Quote:
Originally Posted by dannyj
A's are 2-13 in their last 15 in case you all didn't know.
Yanks keep winning.
Tigers keep losing.
All Aboard!
Tigers are the New Reds.
Yanks are the New Dodgers.
Not much room left on this train but get onboard already!
Braves RL
Yanks ML (Yanks at +110 too hard to pass up)
Twins OV 9
+605
I'm leaning TBL +130 again.
What's your thought Monet?
I talked about it already in another thread.Quote:
Originally Posted by dannyj
I would think that Vasilevskiy is going to have a great game.
It's very rare that he has back to back loses.
But this game is too difficult to predict.
I'd rather just wait for next years season to get something easier.
I'll watch and enjoy.
I'm going to go with a small ball two teamer today for a few hundies.
I'm going to take your Braves Run Line and mix it with the Rays Run Line.
Braves and Rays.
Just sound right.
Yanks are just so hot I might as well put them into a 3 teamer on the Money Line.
They can't just keep winning can they lol?
Oh... Cueto got traded to the White Sox eh?
Verlander is pitching huh?
Ok, want to shoot the moon??
Braves RL
Yanks ML
Giants RL
Rays RL
Astros RL
A's ML
Dodgers RL
Lightning ML
Bah... never happen... whatever.
OVER 8.5 on the Phillies/Nationals
Padres Money Line and Run Line is worth a look.
Fanduel Update: One of my golfers did not make the cut, so no big money for me. You need all six to score every day to win decent money. Currently sitting in 723rd out of 26K. It'll be a funny day. Anything better than +2 for the day will be a good score.
+2 was a good day for any golfer yesterday on that course. How did you make out?Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Boz+2 was a good day for any golfer yesterday on that course. How did you make out?Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
I blew lunch money on Dustin Johnson at 40-1. Other than that and the FanDuel, the only thing I have going is an old hometown contest. You choose eight golfers at the start of the tournament, and best four scores each day count. If you wind up with fewer than four golfers after two days, you're automatically eliminated.
I will check the standings. There's maybe 50 people in the thing. I'm tied for 10th, four strokes off the lead. Top three cash.
This will warm mickey's heart. The girlfriend is sitting second, one stroke off the lead. She finished first and I finished second in the Masters. She beat me on the tiebreaker (closest to winning score). Neither of us were close for the PGA.
For those who availed themselves of our recommendation on Cleveland at +900 and +850 to win their division, it looks as if we will get a run out of them. The idea is to get them in a one-on-one scenario where we can hedge with the other team and lock in a profit. And here come the White Sox, which is not surprising, as they are generally considered the best team in the division.
Braves ML
Indians ML
Padres ML
+514
One more. All ML. Straight or parlay.
Rockies
Mariners
Yanks
+616
Blue Jays ML
Yanks ML
Angels OV 9
Giants OV 7.5
Yanks RL
Blue Jays RL
Rangers ML
Mariners ML
+863
3-1 yesterday.
Probably should bet these straight as I would have made money if I did.
I'll include parlay odds if you're like me.
Or bet against. That's always a good play.
Cardinals ML
Reds OV 9
Rangers OV 9
Giants RL
+1193
Really late.
Bet straight, or if you’re like me.
Brewers ML
Blue Jays OV 9.5
Padres ML
Mariners RL
+1266
Red Sox ML
Braves RL
Twins OV 9
Giants OV 7.5
+951
The Indians (I'm sorry, Guardians) will probably get clobbered to the gills versus the Yankees in the next couple of days, but at least that 9-1 to-win-the-division wager has its moments:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/mlb...d52ca85c47c477
One reason I took this future was because I thought this division was so bad that .500 could conceivably win it. It's the only division where a bad team could win.
There's value on the Indians game 1 RL @ +135, but I'm not touching it.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
I remember when you posted this with no time for me to bet.Quote:
Originally Posted by dannyj
Nicely Done though.
I haven't messed with this for a few weeks.
Time to try again.
2 Teamer
Devil Rays -1.5 +100
Yankees -1.5 +100
3 to 1 on your dough.
You could add in the Dodgers Run Line as well but I think I'll just try the 2 teamer today.
Edit: Marlins/Mets OVER 7.5 All Systems Go
The Reds are ruining my life.
8 Picks Listed.
I expect to end up with 3 wins and 5 losses.
Baltimore Money Line
Rangers Money Line
Mets Run Line
Brewers Run Line
Braves Run Line
Dodgers Run Line
Devil Rays Run Line
Houston -2.5
Way to get back on the horse Monet.Quote:
Originally Posted by monet
The Reds aren’t the team we can indiscriminately pile on against anymore. Playing like they have nothing to lose. Which they don’t, except maybe the first pick. Having said that, I was on the Rays yesterday and got burned. Staying away from that one today.
I’m on,
Orioles ML
Astros RL
Yanks RL
Dodgers RL
BlueJays ML
Indians OV 9
Rangers OV 8.5
D-Backs ML
+722
Alright... Fuck It.Quote:
Originally Posted by dannyj
I'm betting this parlay and not even going to look at it or think twice about it.
I lost 2700 in the last 3 days betting against the Reds lol.
Bringing me back down 15,000 dollars since I hit my 1200 dollar 6 Pack.
My grand total is in the positive since starting this thread up just over 120k.
I suppose that is the Silver Lining.
I'm also going to hammer the Run Line with the Yankees against the Reds starting tomorrow.
Time to play it the way the Rich People play it and go straight.
I'm going to go with the Marlins Run Line today.
1400 Clams on the Marlins Run Line paying about +132
300 Fish on dannyj's Parlay.
The NHL Season can't start soon enough in my opinion.
Good luck buddy!Quote:
Originally Posted by monetAlright... Fuck It.Quote:
Originally Posted by dannyj
I'm betting this parlay and not even going to look at it or think twice about it.
I lost 2700 in the last 3 days betting against the Reds lol.
Bringing me back down 15,000 dollars since I hit my 1200 dollar 6 Pack.
My grand total is in the positive since starting this thread up just over 120k.
I suppose that is the Silver Lining.
I'm also going to hammer the Run Line with the Yankees against the Reds starting tomorrow.
Time to play it the way the Rich People play it and go straight.
I'm going to go with the Marlins Run Line today.
1400 Clams on the Marlins Run Line paying about +132
300 Fish on dannyj's Parlay.
The NHL Season can't start soon enough in my opinion.
Fuck Off Rat!Quote:
Originally Posted by The Boz
Marlins got WrEcKed and I lost 1400 playing it straight.
Don't Bet Parlays?
Fuck You!
dannyj for the WIN!
Thanks dannyj, that parlay was Smart Money!!
I ended up winning 724 dollars and 70 cents instead of losing today.
I have a feeling this is going to break the curse.
I'm going on a heater for a few weeks now.
Alright dannyj, I'm gonna need your help on this one.
I'm down with the Yankees -2.5 tomorrow but I need your lock pick to go with it.
Yesterday I was conflicted as I wanted to bet on the Rays for a fourth day in a row but I guessed wrong and took the Fish instead.
I am thinking 3 teamer.
Yankees -1.5 or even -2.5... Fuck the Reds... or is the Reds keep Fucking me!?
Rays -1.5
Fish -1.5
but I've guessed wrong for over 6 weeks on the MLB.
Either way I'm rolling the 700 dollars you made me yesterday on something.
Technically you made me 2100 dollars yesterday but I lost 1400 on my own for a net of 700.
I'm about to go 10-0 on something... I can feel... It's time... I'm due.
If I had to go with just one play, I’d probably go Giants RL.Quote:
Originally Posted by monet
Some others I’m looking at,
Yanks OV 8.5 (yanks will probably have to do the heavy lifting. Wind blowing out.)
Rays OV 7.5 (I don’t care who’s on the hill, this line is like a run too low, IMO)
Orioles ML
Giants should hit lefty Keuchel hard tonight.Quote:
Originally Posted by dannyjIf I had to go with just one play, I’d probably go Giants RL.Quote:
Originally Posted by monet
Some others I’m looking at,
Yanks OV 8.5 (yanks will probably have to do the heavy lifting. Wind blowing out.)
Rays OV 7.5 (I don’t care who’s on the hill, this line is like a run too low, IMO)
Orioles ML
Thank You for Sharing.Quote:
Originally Posted by dannyj
I went with your Giants Run Line and since the Yanks were -155 -1.5 I just took the regular run line instead of trying to fade -2.5.
700 to win 1548
I also put a 4 teamer adding in the OVER on Tampa Bay/Boston and I took the Run Line with the Marlins again because I like pain.
400 to win 5563
I really need both of these to cash to put a dent into my loss of 14,300.
I hammered machines for about 6 hours this early morning and came out 1500 ahead so I fired off 1100 of it into the book.
I also got 4 Large Pizzas comped so its a win win for me.
So the Bucs and the Reds are never going to lose again?
I'm gettin' real tired of this bullshit.
Fucking Boz in here Good Luck Cursing me.
Somebody call ZenKing because this Fucking Mob Infested Sportsbook City needs to be taught a lesson.
Alright.
I'm just going to throw some more money away tomorrow.
4 Teamer
Rays Run Line
Braves Run Line
Dodgers Run Line
Yanks Double Run Line -2.5
Around 22 to 1 on your dough.
Bet 600 to pay around 13,200
I'm stuck 15,400 so that will just about pull me even.
It's a lock.
I'm working the Marlins Run Line in there too.
5 Teamer pays around 48-1.
300 to win around 14,300
It's only money.
Somebody ban Boz from this Fucking Thread!
Good Luck Cursing Mother Fucking Dirty Stinking Rat Fink Bastard!!
Woke up just now so too late to get down on the Braves.Quote:
Originally Posted by monet
Good thing as they got beat 7-3.
Undecided on a two teamer or 4 teamer.
Yanks -2.5
Marlins -1.5
Rays -1.5
Dodgers -1.5
Pays about 20-1
Yanks -2.5
Marlins -1.5
Pays 3.6 to 1
Not sure which parley you decided on but HUGE congratulations on all 4 teams winning! Certainly not an easy thing to do.Quote:
Originally Posted by monetWoke up just now so too late to get down on the Braves.Quote:
Originally Posted by monet
Good thing as they got beat 7-3.
Undecided on a two teamer or 4 teamer.
Yanks -2.5
Marlins -1.5
Rays -1.5
Dodgers -1.5
Pays about 20-1
Yanks -2.5
Marlins -1.5
Pays 3.6 to 1
Oh wait, that’s right, you went for the home run again, held 2 to a Royal instead of 3 6’s. Instead of picking winners ploppies like you go for it all. Picking a winner will never be enough for a coke head action junkie like you. While most are happy to just pick a winner, you want the rush of a huge winner.
We all truly appreciate the ass clowns like you who need teams to win by certain run amounts. When they talk about leaks in an AP’s game, you are the poster child.
Oh yea, good luck buddy!
And actually who is the rat here?
The guy who brags that no one should ever trust him? Or the guy who was concerned about his public investments about a guy who is possibly colluding with pit bosses and hosts to criminally steal from casinos?
No AP I know of pays off casino employees. AP’s I know take advantage of legal advantages that casinos permit, intended or not. And they certainly don’t brag about being able to take advantage of other AP’s when they are drinking.
No wonder no one likes or trusts you Monet. Also probably explains why you have to get all coked up and go to massage parlors to get women to act like they care about you and your fat hairy ass….and little cock.
And good luck on your parlays buddy!
Mets ML
Orioles OV 7.5
Twins OV 9
Reds +1.5
+996
What a kick in the head for me and this board.
I had back to back monster mental bet wins but too lazy to post and bet.
Obviously you can verify this with my usual betting pattern.
Bet Run Line on the Dodgers.
Bet Run Line on the Braves.
Bet Run Line against the Reds.
Bet Run Line against the Pirates.
Bet Run Line on the Yankees.
And a few outliers like Run Line Astros, Run Line Blue Jays.
The Money Line on the Mets yesterday was -130 on both games and I had that.
etc. etc.
Most likely a 3 to 5 teamer the day before yesterday and a 5 to 7 teamer yesterday.
So now my mind is all mush like usual.
Maybe ZK will let me jump off the bridge with him.
As a consolation prize I did hit a 5 dollar and a 10 dollar single line royal in the last 7 days.
Had a pretty solid week on machines winning just over 70k.
Both Royals in Clubs which is kind of important to me, sort of since the last time I made a Club Royal was flopped on 100 play quarters.
The 10 dollar Royal was the always fun OJ10 Center of the Universe with the AK jumping in.
I went out early this morning to pick up some free play and ended up winning 4200 and some change and 100 Dollar Free Breakfast To Go.
I also am up 1100 after putting money back on the computer for online poker.
Most of the winnings is from PLO.
I'm pretty sure those guys are all cheating so I keep thinking about just closing out my account yet again.
Teams I like but doubt I run off to the book today.
Mets RL
Giants RL
Astros RL
Indians RL
Yanks RL
Braves RL
Diamondbacks ML
White Sox ML
OVER Pirates/Rockies
OVER Reds/Cards
OVER Phillies/Marlins
OVER Rays/Baltimore
Nice VP hits Monet, congrats.Quote:
Originally Posted by monet
You calling me a liar?Quote:
Originally Posted by tableplay
Listen Pal, I learned how to phony jackpot pictures from the best on these sites.
I recently ran into a pay phone.
I didn't think they existed anymore so I took a picture of that too!
And I think I got the 20k in prop money just right but it's still difficult to replicate the one I seen in the other thread.
I tried to get the same style with the straight blue lines and rubber bands.
My Sportsbook Confidence is pretty well shot at the moment.
Good thing the All Star Break is this week to give me time to recalibrate.
I should be ahead now instead of stuck 18 grand.
Fuckers are gonna pay.
I'm taking it personal.
Man, that payphone is in great shape. The ones I see at the gas stations are pretty beat up. Thanks for posting the jackpots and phone pics.Quote:
Originally Posted by monetYou calling me a liar?Quote:
Originally Posted by tableplay
Listen Pal, I learned how to phony jackpot pictures from the best on these sites.
I recently ran into a pay phone.
I didn't think they existed anymore so I took a picture of that too!
And I think I got the 20k in prop money just right but it's still difficult to replicate the one I seen in the other thread.
I tried to get the same style with the straight blue lines and rubber bands.
My Sportsbook Confidence is pretty well shot at the moment.
Good thing the All Star Break is this week to give me time to recalibrate.
I should be ahead now instead of stuck 18 grand.
Fuckers are gonna pay.
I'm taking it personal.
Quote:
Originally Posted by tableplayMan, that payphone is in great shape. The ones I see at the gas stations are pretty beat up. Thanks for posting the jackpots and phone pics.Quote:
Originally Posted by monetYou calling me a liar?Quote:
Originally Posted by tableplay
Listen Pal, I learned how to phony jackpot pictures from the best on these sites.
I recently ran into a pay phone.
I didn't think they existed anymore so I took a picture of that too!
And I think I got the 20k in prop money just right but it's still difficult to replicate the one I seen in the other thread.
I tried to get the same style with the straight blue lines and rubber bands.
My Sportsbook Confidence is pretty well shot at the moment.
Good thing the All Star Break is this week to give me time to recalibrate.
I should be ahead now instead of stuck 18 grand.
Fuckers are gonna pay.
I'm taking it personal.
First, a question. I don't know much about baseball, but my 9-1-to-win-division Guardians got scheduled for their fourth doubleheader in about three weeks. They had to play three doubleheaders, including one against the Yankees, in a span of about nine days a couple of weeks ago. They do not have a pitching staff that can deal with doubleheaders. I feel like they are really getting hosed with this scheduling. So my question is how often do teams play doubleheaders in limited time frames these days? I thought the days of multiple doubleheaders in a couple of weeks had been extinct for a while.
Second, my Amtrak points (all 35,000 of them) were about to expire a couple of years ago, so I drove to the nearest Amtrak station, which was over hill and dale in some pseudo-Mayberry, and took a roundtrip to keep them active. Anyway, in one of the small old train stations, there was a bank of old telephone booths. A bunch of Cub Scouts got off one of the trains and came in the station. I heard them asking the scoutmaster what the phone booths were. They literally had no idea.
Make sure you always have a few handy wipe packets on you to clean/sterilize a handset if you need use a payphone nowadays - most of the payphone patrons are not what you would call hygienic sorts.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietzQuote:
Originally Posted by tableplayMan, that payphone is in great shape. The ones I see at the gas stations are pretty beat up. Thanks for posting the jackpots and phone pics.Quote:
Originally Posted by monet
First, a question. I don't know much about baseball, but my 9-1-to-win-division Guardians got scheduled for their fourth doubleheader in about three weeks. They had to play three doubleheaders, including one against the Yankees, in a span of about nine days a couple of weeks ago. They do not have a pitching staff that can deal with doubleheaders. I feel like they are really getting hosed with this scheduling. So my question is how often do teams play doubleheaders in limited time frames these days? I thought the days of multiple doubleheaders in a couple of weeks had been extinct for a while.
Second, my Amtrak points (all 35,000 of them) were about to expire a couple of years ago, so I drove to the nearest Amtrak station, which was over hill and dale in some pseudo-Mayberry, and took a roundtrip to keep them active. Anyway, in one of the small old train stations, there was a bank of old telephone booths. A bunch of Cub Scouts got off one of the trains and came in the station. I heard them asking the scoutmaster what the phone booths were. They literally had no idea.
Thanks, but No Thanks... I like to gamble.Quote:
Originally Posted by tableplay
I bought the Seven-Ups DVD off of Amazon and just finished viewing.
Pretty good but not as good as say the French Connection.
Car Chase was pretty good.
I like how they rammed that car into the backend of that truck.
Looked Real.
I like how they had Glass 5 Gallon Water Bottles instead of the plastic garbage of today.
I miss those.
I miss all the high quality products we used to produce or that was in the marketplace.
I recently bought two 30 dollar ice cube trays.
ONYX Stainless Steel with the old school handle like the aluminum ones I had growing up.
These new ones are well worth the high price tag to me but I know how to use them properly.
And they freeze water in about an hour... very fast.
Here, have some fun and watch a 20 minute video all about ice cube trays lol.
Just kidding, you can skim through it.
In the second video I don't like how she just did it.
You got to run water on the back of the tray and go a bit slower when you pull the lever.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U848ADEqGp4&t=43s
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=15M9BgU9d-w
I'm glad you had a chance to watch it. Enjoyable, solid movie for sure. I agree that the French Connection was better.Quote:
Originally Posted by monetThanks, but No Thanks... I like to gamble.Quote:
Originally Posted by tableplay
I bought the Seven-Ups DVD off of Amazon and just finished viewing.
Pretty good but not as good as say the French Connection.
Car Chase was pretty good.
I like how they rammed that car into the backend of that truck.
Looked Real.
I like how they had Glass 5 Gallon Water Bottles instead of the plastic garbage of today.
I miss those.
I miss all the high quality products we used to produce or that was in the marketplace.
I recently bought two 30 dollar ice cube trays.
ONYX Stainless Steel with the old school handle like the aluminum ones I had growing up.
These new ones are well worth the high price tag to me but I know how to use them properly.
And they freeze water in about an hour... very fast.
Here, have some fun and watch a 20 minute video all about ice cube trays lol.
Just kidding, you can skim through it.
https://youtu.be/1OADXNGnJokQuote:
Originally Posted by redietz
https://youtu.be/Gjin8t633pc
https://youtu.be/71Bu8BZBeAg
I hit the difficult 16,125 to 1 shot last night on the stupid 98.5% version of WHA.
Anyways was up about 18,750 so threw 2 Hun at the Sportsbook.
5 Teamer
All Run Line
Phillies
Yanks
Braves
Blue Jays
Dodgers
Pays 17.6 to 1
Baseball Run Line Parlays suck as they are all minus minus.
Time to play the MLB straight betting on the Yanks, Dodgers and Braves going forward.
Wait for the NHL and those plus lines for parlays.
Congrats on the great hit Monet.Quote:
Originally Posted by monet
Quote:
Originally Posted by monet
Well, it's not quite in the bag, but close enough to say,
"How 'Bout Them Guardians?"
They are still the Indians to me.
Signed,
The Riddler
Yeah but you ruined it with all the hedging.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
Signed... Fuck Hedging.
Quote:
Originally Posted by monetYeah but you ruined it with all the hedging.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
Signed... Fuck Hedging.
LOL. The girlfriend says "Hedging is for weenies."
It isn't that bad, monet. We blew 1 1/2 units hedging and will make, barring a miracle collapse, 8.75 units (1/2 a unit at +850 and 1/2 a unit at +900) on the future for a +7 1/4 units overall.
I'm not quite sure how they did it, monet. They had balls of iron down the stretch. Two starting pitchers out for weeks, and they cobbled together bullpen games without killing their bullpen. Then their closer blew a couple of games, and they won the games anyway.
I had the Giants to win their division last year after about 50 games, and got odds, and I'm not sure how they hung on, either, I kept expecting the Dodgers to blow right by them, but the Giants scrapped out about half a dozen games they should not have won and hung on. That's why I was convinced this year the Dodgers would win the division easily. It took a minor miracle for them to not win last year.
My stupidity paid off for once. I gave Minnesota no chance so was going to hedge with the White Sox. Had them at somewhere between 600 and 700 but couldn't pull the trigger because they were really sucking at that time. Then Indians lost the pitchers and Sox got hot. When I went to hedge Sox were only +325. So I said F... it and just sat back and watched the Indians somehow get hot again.
I only got +750.
Monet--HOCKEY!!!!!
Redietz--dinner is on me
Quote:
Originally Posted by regnis
Thanks, regnis! Looking forward to it.
Yeah, I mistimed the hedges badly. Got the wrong numbers at the wrong times, but I am a stickler for not losing. As well as I timed the initial wager (I think they were .500, but with a schedule I thought would work), I mangled the hedge timing.
Boy, they got a lot of well-pitched all-bullpen games, although the guy they called up twice from AAA probably ended his aspirations, as he was shelled badly twice.
And yes, the girlfriend with her horse racing background despises hedging unless we're looking at 20-1 or more, and even then it's for weenies, she says.
The best dinner is a free dinner.
Tom Brady has a finger injury on his throwing hand and the line has not changed.
I like the Packers in this game but I hate to bet against Brady.
I'm also going against Dan Druff and laying the -5.5 taking the Chiefs over the Colts.
NHL Preseason starts today if anyone actually cares.
Quote:
Originally Posted by monet
Monet, if you check the QB ATS records, Brady has far and away the best record of any NFL QB. I think Rodgers is second, but I'd have to check that. Wilson is probably third (I'm talking net wins here, not percentage). It's hard to make a case for their being value betting on Brady going forward.
So I have a theory that maybe the thing to do going forward, and I haven't done it yet, is tease against Brady with open teasers. Either stockpile them to save to hedge a future down the road or cascade them anti-Brady Open to be closed with another anti-Brady teaser. I haven't made a decision yet. Brady's arm strength is not what it was, but it's fine. His arm is stronger than Brees's arm his last two years or Peyton Manning's his last year or even Eli Manning's his last year. And Brady has never relied on arm strength. Like Brees, the playbook is designed to not test his arm with certain patterns. It's not an easy call to go anti-Brady. I haven't made a decision, but it's worth considering, I think. Now would be the time, with them 2-0 ATS.
Just saying...
Kansas City is 47-25-1 against the spread, on the road under coach Andy Reid (.653), the best mark in the NFL in that span.
Indianapolis, meanwhile, is 0-4 ATS in its past four games, and Ryan is 0-5-1 ATS in his past six starts.
Quote:
Originally Posted by monet
Boy, did I muck my Last Man Standing up. I committed to the Chargers before I knew Herbert was likely a no go. It's a shame, as after two weeks, just a third of the people have survived. It's my own fault, of course. I get as many of the junk contests out of the way on Tuesday as I can before I do the real work. I knew he was damaged, but I just didn't pay enough attention to it. Excellent opportunity, and I may have blown it.
I think the Colts are having serious buyers' remorse right now. On the bright side, if they lose this game, they may be considered dead in the water. And they are not.
I hope they get blown out.
I'm surprised you haven't talked about the Under covering in the NFL as of late.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
It's historic.
Quote:
Originally Posted by monetI'm surprised you haven't talked about the Under covering in the NFL as of late.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
It's historic.
Sssshhhhh. Check out the totals including all of last season.
Of course, that doesn't mean Unders are the way to go right now. In fact, if you're judicious, it may mean the opposite.
Let's face it, most scoring is officiating-dependent. That's the phrase I use. Anytime you need a rules expert as part of a broadcast team, you know you have a, pardon the expression, fucked up sport.
Curse Dan Druff!
On a positive note, Little Red Rooster lost his straight bet pick on the Chiefs.
https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/...ral-title-2018
Gotta celebrate when it's appropriate. I didn't realize they clinched today until a few minutes ago.
The one thing this crew did, better than anybody but the super teams, was hit for average. Straw was a liability in the ninth spot (I think he began the year leadoff -- ugh), but everyone else could hit and advance runners.
Even though the Chiefs blew it for me, last week, I ended up a little ahead since Green Bay won outright.
Lot of money seems to have gone down on the Buc's moving the line to EVEN from -2.5...
I'm taking the Chiefs, on the road, again this week.
Damn the Torpedoes!
I had a long night, and on my way out I threw 7 Hun on the Chiefs Money Line.
Coincidentally, I broke my single line Royal Streak, making one on 5 dollars.
Only left 10k up though.
Beating the book always feels better.
I'm sure this +105 line was not the best.
They still have to pay me.
Well done. I did not understand the massive line swing. I thought KC -2 was an appropriate opening line. I had the Over teased. Not much excitement there. I have an open teaser that unfortunately must be closed today. Some of the offshores have reduced time limits on closing open teasers. I think what we'll do is close it with the Over tonight and buy back half of the wager on the Under. I'd like to catch a 43 and buy it to 44 for the buyback. We'll see if any 43s become available. Right now, I have just one offshore offering open in perpetuity. Another offshore has instituted a 30-day limit, and another went from perpetuity to seven days, so the era of our betting many teasers is probably drawing to a close.
I first became aware of teasers when I was about 15, reading The National Football Lottery by Larry Merchant. Good book, monet. Classic. If you haven't read it, check it out. Merchant, who wrote for Sports Illustrated and had been a longtime gambler, got a 10K advance (worth about 40K in today's money) to write an NFL gambling book. The trick was that he used the advance to gamble. One thing the book demonstrates is how gamblers knew about "Wong" teasers long before Wong had the bad judgement to write about them.
When I read this, it made me belly laugh.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
That's classic and something I would totally do.
Actually, when I go back and reread it, I still can't help but laugh out loud and grin at the thought of it.
OK, here we go.
I didn't want to bet on the NFL this week as I found most of the matchups too difficult.
I made the lone bet on the Chiefs and won.
I was going to stay away from this Monday night game, but I can't understand why San Francisco is still favored when 61% of bettors are betting on LA.
I know San Francisco is 5-0 ATS at home in their last 5 games, but I think that streak comes to an end tonight.
Take the Rams on the Money Line and Over 41.5 if you want to parlay it.
Or don't as you can wait for a bettor opportunity... bettor... see what I did!?
For the record, I lost half a unit on Monday night. I had the Over 35 teased for a unit. Instead of taking Under 44 for half a unit as a hedge, I waited until halftime, then took Under 20 for the second half for half a unit. Damn shame Rams couldn't score that last drive, but Stafford looked more into self-preservation than scoring.
I have one place that allows me discounts on juice buying half points, so I would have been laying -130 to go Under 44. Not that it mattered. I opted for the second half Under 20.
Rams have no speed on offense. No Beckham, no third WR, no speed. It's gotta be killing Stafford, with his arm, to try to throw five yard patterns to Higbee and squeeze short throws betwixt double coverage into the Kuppster. I always hated the Rams offense. I hated it last season. I hate it this season.
One of the reasons for all of these Unders is the Canadian Football League style play design. Some of these offenses might work in the CFL or the Mountain West, but throwing cross-field to get five yards against NFL athletes is moronic. Especially when the field is not 65 yards wide.
I lost 300 on the game last night.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
Not Fun as I knew I was dead after the first quarter.
The crowd was really into it and the 49'ers came to play!
NHL starts in 3 days but in reality it starts in 7 days.
Tom Brady on the verge of Divorce.
Any thoughts on how this could affect his game and beating the point spread?
I like betting against him now as age and his personal life could cause havoc but Brady is Brady and with his offensive weapons getting healthy it still could pose a problem.
Even with the Green Bay and Chiefs wins, against him, it still wasn't perfect.
Brady could of won the Green Bay game, and he still moved the ball against the Chiefs.
Two pieces of conflicting, but true, information.Quote:
Originally Posted by monet
1) Brady's arm, although never that strong, has held up to the point where his arm strength is better than Drew Brees' arm his last two years and better than Peyton Manning's arm his last year. Brady's arm may be better than Eli's arm his last year.
2) Brady's lifetime ATS record is so good that going forward you are getting zero value taking him. You are always getting shorted at least two points.
These are facts. Now what should we do with them? I don't have any brilliant theories. I have to think without Brown and Gronk, you are spitting into the wind betting on Brady going forward. The question is whether you should automatically bet against him or pick your spots.
Just the fact that you believe the point spread is off by 2 points is monster and I have nothing else to say but thank you for the heads up and information.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
That's really interesting and great insight.
I have to believe his personal life and being in the news about it constantly has to have some effect.
Not so much about being in the news but the fact that they are having issues has to bother him mentally.
And let us not forget that he took a huge cut in pay from 37 Million to 15 Million as he could of retired and been in the booth.
I mean the money isn't going anywhere but he has to think like "I don't need this shit... I can get paid more than double by just analyzing this game on TV" without the physical and mental abuse.
Betting against Brady is tough. He more or less edits out whatever plays are in the playbook that would be a challenge for his arm. You're never going to see him throw balls he can no longer throw. The whole offense hides any deficiencies. You're not going to see any horse's ass cross-field screens going upfield and stuff (like the one Stafford had picked off for a TD Monday). No outs cross field into coverage. Nothing like that will be called. The play designs are basically to clear out the middle of the field and create the shortest, easiest throws. And it works. Half of the play designs are window dressing to create a receiver in the middle of the field with the easiest imaginable throw.Quote:
Originally Posted by monetJust the fact that you believe the point spread is off by 2 points is monster and I have nothing else to say but thank you for the heads up and information.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
That's really interesting and great insight.
I have to believe his personal life and being in the news about it constantly has to have some effect.
Not so much about being in the news but the fact that they are having issues has to bother him mentally.
And let us not forget that he took a huge cut in pay from 37 Million to 15 Million as he could of retired and been in the booth.
I mean the money isn't going anywhere but he has to think like "I don't need this shit... I can get paid more than double by just analyzing this game on TV" without the physical and mental abuse.
The only time you get a sense of his arm limitations are when there's a defensive offside or something and he automatically throws deep. Those throws look more like lollipop heaves. But his arm is still stronger than Peyton Manning's that last year. And Manning won the Super Bowl.
Don't bet too much on this.
Just for funsies and I like the matchups.
All Favorites.
All Home Teams.
All Run Line
Braves
Astros
Yanks
Dodgers
Stay away from the two NHL games on the 11th.
Will the Yotes lose 10 games in a row, at the start, again?
Maybe.
Target against them.
Target against the Hawks if you can get a good line as Genius already stated.
You know him as regins.
And target against every Canadians favorite hockey club, Montreal.
lol... Fuck You Philly and Seattle... You're both going down hard in game 2!
Padres bats have woke up. And, they got Clevinger on the hill who the Dodgers should hit hard.
LA/SD OV 7.5
It looks like the Dodgers might score the over for you all by themselves.Quote:
Originally Posted by dannyj
Nice win danny... I almost jinxed ya.
Just testing the waters here.
Not betting much on anything right now.
Carolina -1.5 -110
This opened at +120 on the Puck Line so missed out on that.
Colorado -1.5 -155
Oilers -1.5 +140
Ducks -1.5 +205
Toronto has a good price but Montreal at home tends to spoil them
-1.5 +105
Atlanta Braves -1.5 +160
If you went crazy and bet all 6 teams you should get around 110 to 1.
I'm involved in the Braves game but just on ATL TT OV 3.5Quote:
Originally Posted by monet
I think the Phillies are live though at +125. They have already pushed start time back twice due to rain.
Can't pull trigger on the Leafs or Caps, but I'm looking at two 2 teamers.
Canes PL
Avalanche PL
Oilers PL
Ducks ML
Nicely Done on your wins today.Quote:
Originally Posted by dannyjI'm involved in the Braves game but just on ATL TT OV 3.5Quote:
Originally Posted by monet
I think the Phillies are live though at +125. They have already pushed start time back twice due to rain.
Can't pull trigger on the Leafs or Caps, but I'm looking at two 2 teamers.
Canes PL
Avalanche PL
Oilers PL
Ducks ML
I couldn't pull the trigger on the OVERs on the Ducks and Avalanche but they both squeaked by.
Montreal played spoiler as I suspected.
Braves covered.
Best day I seen in the book for my picks in a long time.
Tomorrow looks really good which means I should lose all picks.
Penguins -1.5
Knights -1.5
Kings -1.5
Astros -1.5
Toronto, at home, against the Capitals, on the Puck Line, if you like to gamble.