"Last Chance To Get Even" sign along the I-15

Whenever we make the drive from Vegas back to Los Angeles, we get a chuckle seeing the sign right before the Stateline Primm casinos that says "Last Chance to Get Even."

I know that a lot of gamblers leaving Vegas take that exit ramp off the I-15 thinking that after losing money in Vegas that the odds will catch up with them at Primm.

That's pretty much what long term gamblers think too. They think that over the long term the odds will catch up with them.

I remember when I was going through that 170-thousand hand drought of Royals, and others would tell me that my royals were coming and my drought would end. It was if they were trying to say "the math will take care of you over the long term."

Well, I've made that stop at Primm, and I can tell you that you can never depend on the math catching up with you to take you out of a hole.

And I understand Rob Singer when he says he was forced into being addicted to playing when he was a "AP" because he had to keep playing so that the math would work for him... but it didn't.

So now when we pass that "Last Chance To Get Even" sign we giggle. We do sometimes stop, but it's more likely because it's the last chance to buy gas before the long trip through the desert.

That's funny. But what's even funnier is trying to imagine how arci would have told that story....or Jean Scott, or Bob Dancer, or any of the AP's we see.posting to the forums over the years. It would go something....no, EXACTLY like this: "I stopped many times at Primm for that last chance that sign reminds me of, and I've never won anything UNTIL my last stop--where the math did its thing once again and made me an overall winner."

Of course, no AP will ever admit to being in a losing streak until and unless that can either claim or make up that they just miraculously won something that now makes it all so right.

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

Whenever we make the drive from Vegas back to Los Angeles, we get a chuckle seeing the sign right before the Stateline Primm casinos that says "Last Chance to Get Even."

I know that a lot of gamblers leaving Vegas take that exit ramp off the I-15 thinking that after losing money in Vegas that the odds will catch up with them at Primm.

That's pretty much what long term gamblers think too. They think that over the long term the odds will catch up with them.

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Not sure what you mean by "long term gamblers". Since you are still playing I would guess you fit that description perfectly.

OTOH, advantage players do NOT, I repeat do NOT, think that way. Unlike your silly attempt to slam APers, they know the reality. Your future expectations are based on whatever the return is of games you choose to play. You can't expect randomness to all of a sudden produce non-random results.

I can only wonder why Alan would choose to make such a ridiculous claims.

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

And I understand Rob Singer when he says he was forced into being addicted to playing when he was a "AP" because he had to keep playing so that the math would work for him... but it didn't.

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Well, if that is what wheels thought then it confirms that he is a complete d----. It also means anyone who believes that nonsense is not too bright either.

Some of us actually know what happened to Singer. He drank and chased women. I suspect his playing level was a good 2% below optimal strategy. He also played long and hard meaning he played when he was too tired to concentrate. It's all pretty obvious he went bankrupt because he failed to use proper discipline in his play. However, being the addict that he is, he will never accept personal responsibility for his actions. That is why he continues to claim APers can't win. If they could, it would mean he was a failure. He was .... and still is.

Arc, when I was talking about my drought, SO MANY TIMES I was told that it would all catch up to me... and the royals would come magically as if the great video poker royal flush distributor in the sky knew I "was due" and would drop the appropriate number of royals into my lap.

Here's what we say when we play craps: the dice have no memory. The last roll has no bearing on the next roll. The last 40-thousand rolls have no bearing on the next roll. So why do video poker players believe that over time (long term) a 9/6 Jacks or Better game will return 99.5%?? The only way you could possibly believe that is to think the machine will "even things out" over time.

Craps players don't think that way. But VP players do?

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

Arc, when I was talking about my drought, SO MANY TIMES I was told that it would all catch up to me... and the royals would come magically as if the great video poker royal flush distributor in the sky knew I "was due" and would drop the appropriate number of royals into my lap.

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Who told you such nonsense? You only thing one can "expect" in the future is average luck. There is no regression to the mean in VP. Now, that doesn't mean you couldn't "catch up" It simply means you can't expect it to happen. I am down a few RFs since I've kept track the last 9 years. However, since I have played many games with extremely good edges, I didn't need a full complement of RFs to win. For example, I've had only one RF this year (93K hands) and yet I'm still ahead for the year.

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

Here's what we say when we play craps: the dice have no memory. The last roll has no bearing on the next roll. The last 40-thousand rolls have no bearing on the next roll. So why do video poker players believe that over time (long term) a 9/6 Jacks or Better game will return 99.5%?? The only way you could possibly believe that is to think the machine will "even things out" over time.

Craps players don't think that way. But VP players do?

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You made two separate claims here.

1) A VP player thinks JOB will return 99.5% in the future. That is true. That is based on average luck. Actual results could be better or worse but will approach that number over time.

2) A VP player thinks results will "even out". That is false. Advantage VP players do not think that way. Your description of craps applies to VP as well. If someone is telling you that future results will be non-random (even out) then you should not believe much of anything they say. Oh wait, that would also apply to our favorite d----.

Every single book and article about the pay table return for video poker uses the phrase "over time." Using a phrase such as "over time" means in plain, simple English, that you expect a certain number of hands to show in order to deliver the expected return of the pay table. And if that is not what the phrase "over time" means than the math of video poker has a set of English language definitions that is unique.

On the contrary, every percentage in the game of craps is based on ONE SINGLE ROLL of the dice.

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

Every single book and article about the pay table return for video poker uses the phrase "over time." Using a phrase such as "over time" means in plain, simple English, that you expect a certain number of hands to show in order to deliver the expected return of the pay table. And if that is not what the phrase "over time" means than the math of video poker has a set of English language definitions that is unique.

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Alan, it's really simple math. If you play 100K hands at a return of 99% and then play the next 100K hands at 99.5% then your actual return has gone up .25%. You have gotten closer to the expectation "over time". That is all the statement means.

It doesn't mean you are expected to get 100% return so that you reach the original expected return as you appear to want it to mean. Now, look at the next 800K hands ... again, the expectation is you will get 99.5%. What does this do to you total return? Get out your calculator and you will see it is approaching 99.5% and not once did you have a future expectation over 99.5%

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

On the contrary, every percentage in the game of craps is based on ONE SINGLE ROLL of the dice.

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The return of VP is based on individual hands as well. Every hand is independent. It is exactly the same as craps. There is no magic here.

Oh here we go again. Arc is back with this gem of video poker math: Alan, it's really simple math. If you play 100K hands at a return of 99% and then play the next 100K hands at 99.5% then your actual return has gone up .25%.

I think you meant theoretical return and not actual return.

Regardless of what you meant, you believe that the math will "come through" and therefore you believe that when you sit down at a 99.5% game you believe the holy spirit of video poker will be sure you finish playing at some point in the everafter with a 99.5% return.

Somewhere, over the rainbow...

Arc wrote: The return of VP is based on individual hands as well. Every hand is independent. It is exactly the same as craps. There is no magic here.

Absolute BS. There is no hand in video poker that returns 99.5% of your bet, or 99.17% of your bet. The expected return of video poker can only be computed over a combination of hands. While all of the math of craps is based on one single roll of the dice.

See, that's the difference between AP's and you, Alan. When I see that sign, "Last Chance to Get Even" when driving to see the girlfriend in Orange County, I think of all the ex-girlfriends who did me wrong. I figure there's a gun and ammo store just off the ramp. It sure looks like a ramp where there should be a guns and ammo store.

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Originally Posted by redietz

See, that's the difference between AP's and you, Alan. When I see that sign, "Last Chance to Get Even" when driving to see the girlfriend in Orange County, I think of all the ex-girlfriends who did me wrong. I figure there's a gun and ammo store just off the ramp. It sure looks like a ramp where there should be a guns and ammo store.

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Please redietz, arci's having enough trouble getting caught by Alan lying, making it up on the go, then contradicting himself. Don't bring up guns & ammo at this point....the poor guy's got it tough enough at home as it is!

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

Oh here we go again. Arc is back with this gem of video poker math: Alan, it's really simple math. If you play 100K hands at a return of 99% and then play the next 100K hands at 99.5% then your actual return has gone up .25%.

I think you meant theoretical return and not actual return.

Regardless of what you meant, you believe that the math will "come through" and therefore you believe that when you sit down at a 99.5% game you believe the holy spirit of video poker will be sure you finish playing at some point in the everafter with a 99.5% return.

Somewhere, over the rainbow...

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Sorry Alan, I thought the math was simple enough for even you to understand. I guess I overestimated your ability.

Arc, I'm afraid it is you who doesn't understand the game of craps. You raise issues of math as a diversion from the actual problem.

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

Arc wrote: The return of VP is based on individual hands as well. Every hand is independent. It is exactly the same as craps. There is no magic here.

Absolute BS. There is no hand in video poker that returns 99.5% of your bet, or 99.17% of your bet. The expected return of video poker can only be computed over a combination of hands. While all of the math of craps is based on one single roll of the dice.

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Alan, if you making a bet in craps is there any time you will be paid exactly the return of the overall game considering all possible situations? No? In other words your saying your original comment about craps ("every percentage in the game of craps is based on ONE SINGLE ROLL of the dice") was "absolute BS"?

First, an apology. I tried to respond to Arc's post above with a quote, and hit edit by mistake. I did not alter Arc's post. Now the response:

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Originally Posted by arcimede$

Alan, if you making a bet in craps is there any time you will be paid exactly the return of the overall game considering all possible situations? No? In other words your saying your original comment about craps ("every percentage in the game of craps is based on ONE SINGLE ROLL of the dice") was "absolute BS"?

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Sorry Arc, you do not understand how the game of craps is played. Each bet on the table is an independent bet even though there may be several bets on the table made at the same time. Each bet is resolved independently, even if one throw can resolve them all. And each bet is paid independently or not paid depending on the throw of the dice.

Each bet is always paid independently according to the odds of that independent bet. There is no change in the odds or the payoffs over time.

Again, you have no idea how craps is played.

Alan, that is no different than VP. Let's see if I can help you out. What is the average return of a pass bet? Is it exactly the same as you get on any single game? Of course not. It is the average of all possible outcomes. That is exactly the same as VP. There's just a lot more possible outcomes in VP.

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Originally Posted by arcimede$

Alan, that is no different than VP. Let's see if I can help you out. What is the average return of a pass bet? Is it exactly the same as you get on any single game? Of course not. It is the average of all possible outcomes. That is exactly the same as VP. There's just a lot more possible outcomes in VP.

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No Arc, you still have no idea about craps. There are no "average possible outcomes" for the pass bet. The pass bet always pays even money no matter how much you bet, and the house always has a 1.4% edge on the pass bet no matter how much you bet and no matter if the bet is resolved in one throw of the dice or after 1,000 throws of the dice. The pass bet does not change if you also bet odds, or if you also place all of the numbers, and if you bet all of the hardways, and if you bet the horn numbers and if you bet the field and if you also simultaneously bet the don'ts.

Each time you make a bet at video poker you could lose that bet or double your money or triple it, or hit a royal or hit a straight flush, and the individual payoffs can vary game by game. Each and every bet on the craps table is a regulated bet with a standard payoff that never changes over time.

"What is the average return of a pass bet? Is it exactly the same as you get on any single game? Of course not. It is the average of all possible outcomes." This will keep me laughing for a long time, and make me doubt you for a longer time.

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

No Arc, you still have no idea about craps. There are no "average possible outcomes" for the pass bet. The pass bet always pays even money no matter how much you bet, and the house always has a 1.4% edge on the pass bet no matter how much you bet and no matter if the bet is resolved in one throw of the dice or after 1,000 throws of the dice. The pass bet does not change if you also bet odds, or if you also place all of the numbers, and if you bet all of the hardways, and if you bet the horn numbers and if you bet the field and if you also simultaneously bet the don'ts.

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You're just confusing yourself again, Alan. The pass bet has two outcomes. You win or lose. In addition, you lose a bit more often that you win. There is not ONE outcome. So, the return of a pass bet is 98.6%. That is NOT the return on a single bet. In a VP game there are also multiple outcomes. It just turns out it might be 10-15 outcomes rather than 2. And, the results of those outcomes for JOB come out to 99.54% rather than 98.6%. Are you catching on yet?

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

Each time you make a bet at video poker you could lose that bet or double your money or triple it, or hit a royal or hit a straight flush, and the individual payoffs can vary game by game. Each and every bet on the craps table is a regulated bet with a standard payoff that never changes over time.

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Each and every bet on a 9/6 JOB game is a regulated bet with a standard payoff that never changes over time. There's no reason someone couldn't come up with a different type of craps game with different payouts. However, there appears to be no market for it so I doubt it will happen.

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

"What is the average return of a pass bet? Is it exactly the same as you get on any single game? Of course not. It is the average of all possible outcomes." This will keep me laughing for a long time, and make me doubt you for a longer time.

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All you have done is demonstrate your inability to understand simple concepts. You tried to claim that every pass bet in craps returns exactly 98.6% of the bet. Go back and read your own words ("every percentage in the game of craps is based on ONE SINGLE ROLL of the dice"). So, explain to me how you receive 98.6% of your bet on a single roll?

Alan, it's entertaining seeing you make arci squirm and shift his position over and over again, but don't expect him to respond favorably to the facts. All those pesky little things do is repture his pride too much to admit that ANYTHING exists other than how he tells himself it should.

Keep him responding. All you have to do is say he's wrong! Then watch and enjoy the agitation!

On this one, Arci's right. You could talk about short vs. long term play and ev and who's got a bigger d##k just like V.P.