Dan Druff's 2025-26 NBA picks

Don't know if I will pick regularly, but I like this one:

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The Lakers are without roided Lebron, and have just announced the irritating news that Maxi Kleber is injured again.

Lakers were horrendous this preseason without Lebron, and their one good game was against these Warriors when Curry was out. I realize the preseason doesn't mean a whole lot, and Doncic also missed some games, but the Lakers were really, really bad.

I think this team is going to flail badly until they get Lebron back, and even if they can hold it together somewhat, they'll at minimum take some time to adjust to life without him. Lebron may not return until December.

Warriors have some injuries of their own, but Butler and Kuminga will play despite ankle issues, and they're only going to be without Moses Moody and Alex Toohy.


I don't think this game will be particularly close.


Golden State -2.5 -110 at Lakers

119-109

Winner!

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Today:

WARNING

I don't like this one as much as yesterday's Warriors picks.

I was and still am very bearish on early season Lakers, while I believe others were foolishly backing them because of Luka and due to flaws in the Warriors.

Many people are chalking it up today with Bucks, who are trying to give the city of Milwaukee something to cheer about after last week's baseball disaster.

The Bucks, however, have been an overrated team for years, and they are possibly worse than last year. Ignore their 8-game regular season winning streak to close out the 24-25 season, as that's not relevant anymore.

Washington is coming off two horrendous seasons, and this one won't be great, either. But there's some hope. They've acquired CJ McCollum, Khris Middleton is healthy (for now), and they have a number of second-year players who were first round picks. Their short preseason (3 games) was better than expected, with the team barely losing to Toronto and stomping on the Knicks by 17. They did finish off on a sour note by getting blown out by Detroit.

The beginning of the season often sees some weird anomalies as teams are finding themselves. The Bucks could easily struggle in the first half before finding footing.

This game looks to me like a close first half, second half collapse situation. The Bullets should have enough to keep it close in the first half.

Washington +5.5 +100 at Milwaukee - FIRST HALF

Horrible pick. To be honest I almost went Mil -10 for game and then got fancy.

Okay I'm going to degen to respond to this beatdown in the earlier pick.


Minnesota -4.5 -107 at Portland

Edwards is questionable but probably playing.

Lost that one too... by 0.5.

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Okay, so I'm going to be a ploppy here and bet on the Wembanyama hype.

He was so impressive in the last game where the Spurs crushed the Mavericks, I think he's going to keep doing this until the league either figures him out, or he gets injured.

Sure, the Pelicans have Zion Williamson, but they're just not a good team.



San Antonio -4.5 -107 at New Orleans

Another 0.5 point loss, and a really bad one as it was 8 points at the very end and the game looked over. Two missed free throws and a step out of bounds at the end fucked me.

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Today:

Charlotte +170 at Philly
Memphis -2 -110 vs Indiana

Shoulda had that Charlotte one. Eight points up with less than 5 min left and they blew it.

Third shitty loss in a row.

Memphis easily won at least.

Hey Druff, how would you describe your selection method?

I'm asking you this because I've read so often the narratives many tipsters write about a single game, going in one direction or the other, that it seems to me that they are all just personal opinions. The market is then shaped by a multitude of these opinions and the closing odds then reflect fairly well the real probabilities of results.

I strongly believe in Spanky's definition of the only two real profitable approaches to sports betting: Bottom-Up and Top-Down. I'm sure you're familiar with that definition.

I, for example, consider myself a Top-Down selector. And unfortunately not a very fast one, so that the low-hanging fruit that I'm able to pick are few and far between, and sometimes not immune to head-fakes or other forms of market manipulation by real big sharp players or syndicates. My whole strategy depends solely in finding outliers, higher odds that some books are slow in bringing back in line with the rest of the market.

Sacramento +9 -109 at Oklahoma City

Books are trying hard to get people to bet under. After it rose as high as 232, it's down to 228.5, without any major injury news I'm aware of.

San Antonio vs Miami - Under 228.5 -107

Won the Sac spread above btw

Easily took that one down.

I bet early season baseball when big NBA playoff games happen, so here's the reverse.

Boston -116 at Philly
Toronto +165 at Cleveland

Won 'em both. Great decision to do Boston moneyline instead of -1 (one site even had -1.5), as it won me the game. 109-108 as Boston held on despite blowing a 22-point lead.

Toronto also blew a lead, but then came on strong in the final 2 minutes and won by 11.

That's 4 in a row for me.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

Toronto also blew a lead, but then came on strong in the final 2 minutes and won by 11.

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I know the Raptors are only 2-4, but they have a really good team and roster IMO. I think they will surprise a lot of people. They will not be one of the top couple teams, but baring injuries, which is so huge in NBA, I expect the Raptors to easily make the playoffs as one of the top 6 teams from the east, not having to go through the play-in.

I plan to ride them for a while until or unless I am proven wrong.

Congrats on you strong start to the NBA.

Orlando at Washington - Under 234.5 -115

Starting very soon

Appeared to be dead after 1H, but then 2H was so good that it wasn't even close.

This actually isn't as shocking as you think, as often blowout games slow down greatly at the end.

5 in a row for me.

Oh.. and kewlJ, I agree about the Raptors. They look better than their record suggests.

BTW I forgot to post a losing pick over here earlier this week... Minn -7.5 vs Lakers.

I posted it on my other site so it counts against me. And I bet it too :(

Last minute NBA.

Let time get away from me... oops

Philadelphia at Brooklyn - Under 233 -105
Charlotte +100 vs Utah
Charlotte/Utah - Under 233.5
Memphis +156 at Toronto
Memphis/Toronto - Under 239 -115

3-2 yesterday, almost 4-1. Lost Memphis ML, barely lost Philly under at the last second, by 2. Was at 222 with 107 seconds left, in a blowout game. Shoulda had that.

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Today:

Detroit at Memphis - Under 236 -115 (235.5 -105 ok)

Won yesterday easily.

Let's do another under.

Charlotte at New Orleans - Under 229.5 -110

Okay, I got really lucky there. 222 points in a 112-110 game with 2:13 left. I stopped watching.

Was shocked to see final of 116-112.

I don't feel bad about it because I took 3 really shitty losses in a row during the week of October 26.

NOTE: All bets will always be 1 unit.

10/21
Golden State -2.5 -110 at Lakers - W +0.91 units

10/22
Washington +5.5 +100 at Milwaukee - FIRST HALF - L -1.00
Minnesota -4.5 -107 at Portland - L -1.00

10/24
San Antonio -4.5 -107 at New Orleans - L -1.00

10/25
Charlotte +170 at Philly - L -1.00
Memphis -2 -110 vs Indiana - W +0.91

10/28
Sacramento +9 -109 at Oklahoma City - W +0.92

10/29
Minnesota -7.5 vs Lakers - L -1.00

10/30
San Antonio vs Miami - Under 228.5 -107 - W +0.93

10/31
Boston -116 at Philly - W +0.86
Toronto +165 at Cleveland - W +1.65

11/1
Orlando at Washington - Under 234.5 -115 - W +0.87

11/2
Philadelphia at Brooklyn - Under 233 -105 - L -1.00
Charlotte +100 vs Utah - W +1.00
Charlotte/Utah - Under 233.5 -110 - W +0.91
Memphis +156 at Toronto - L -1.00
Memphis/Toronto - Under 239 -115 - W +0.87

11/3
Detroit at Memphis - Under 236 -115 - W +0.87

11/4
Charlotte at New Orleans - Under 229.5 -110 - W +0.91

TOTAL: 12-7 (+4.61 units)