Is this the ULTIMATE casino ADVANTAGE play??

Harrah's Rincon has just sent out its January promotion book that includes coupons, free play awards, and promotions. In it is something that really got my attention and makes me as IS THIS THE ULTIMATE CASINO ADVANTAGE PLAY?

Here's the offer (and Bob Dancer pay attention because it's more than a car):

On December 31, 2013 -- about a year from now, New Year's Eve, Harrah's Rincon will award one lucky player ONE MILLION DOLLARS in cash. The player will be drawn in a random drawing but entries in the random drawing will be based on "tier points" earned throughout 2013 starting on January 1, 2013. The more tier points you have, the more entries you have.

Plus tier points earned on Tuesdays will earn triple entries -- so if you earn one tier point on a Tuesday you will get three entries.

So, the more you play the more entries you get. While there are no positive expectation games at Rincon there are a few that come very close plus coupled with the normal Total Rewards comps AND Rincon's free play and cash back there are several games including Super Aces Bonus video poker and even 8/5 Aces and Faces Bonus Poker that could give a player a theoretical positive return. Now, add in the million dollars drawing.

But wait... there's more (as we like to say in the Infomercial business)!!

On the last Saturday of each month there will be separate drawings, every hour from 1-PM to 10-PM, and each hour five guests will win $1,000 of free play.

But wait... there's more!!

At 11pm on the last Saturday of each month one player will win $50,000 cash. Again these drawings are based on entries from tier points.

Harrah's Rincon is advertising that there is more than $2 million to win from this promotion.

So if you are on the few better paying video poker games -- and if you play better edge games such as blackjack and sticking to low edge bets at craps -- IS THIS THE ULTIMATE CASINO ADVANTAGE PLAY?

And will Bob Dancer be relocating to Southern California??

The big question is: Is this more of an "advantage play" than that slot machine rope-'em-in fiasco he was compelled to play two months ago? But yes, I'd have to say he'll either relocate to S. Calif., or will prepare an obscure mathematical excuse as to why he can't jump on this "strong" play.

Here's why a high roller will probably find this enticing:

1. There are $100 vp machines returning at least 99.2%
2. There is free play based on coin in (figure as much as 0.1% of coin in being returned as free play)
3. There is cash back which comes in the form of more free play (figure as much as 0.2% of coin-in being returned as free play)
4. All hotel and food charges will be covered by comps
5. Playing at the "high roller" level will no doubt offer even more comp credits which could be converted to gift cards and gas cards as well as marketable merchandise

In addition to the million dollar drawing at the end of the year, the high rollers also have their chance to dominate the monthly drawings which include $50,000 of cash plus free play.

And there is no telling what other fringe benefits high rollers would get during their visits. High rollers will dominate the drawings.

That's all correct, but I remember Dancer saying his gambling bankroll barely gets him to the $25 and five-play $5 machines according to whatever formula he uses for risk of ruin. But this is a slick marketing move by the casino, as they know they'll reel in multiple big time gamblers. It also shows that no matter what the "theoretical" anywhere, the casino always wins out and knows in advance they will always win out, over AP's barring unexpected and extreme good luck on the player's part. Always.

the casino has already stated its maximum liability by announcing the specific jackpots it will give away. Now it has a whole year to get enough players in to play what are mostly all negative expectation games. The only people who could come out ahead making this play are the "high rollers" who would dominate the few nearly positive payback games in the small high limit area and can do this because of combined free play, cash back and comps that they will get on the $100 machines.

Remember, that Rincon does attract high roller advantage players from time to time when the $5 DDB progressive "gets up there." In the past year it reached $80,000 (so I was told, I did not see it) and two years ago I was there when it was hit for $70,000.

As far as Dancer's bankroll: About five, six or seven years ago I was at the Fiesta North for one of his lectures and at the time he said he was only playing triple line $25/coin deuces for $375 per push of the button. Well that was five, six or seven years ago....

Yes he did say that I'm sure, but he also said, albeit without thinking first and in a moment of temporary euphoria, that he & his wife went to that $100 machine where they hit that $400k royal, without the proper bankroll after making an undisciplined move to higher limits. He even wrote in an article about how he didn't even have the bankroll to be playing the $25 machine, and was turned down by several people he begged to go in with him in order to have the overall proper bankroll since the MGM had some "positive play" offer going. He was all over the map, but it all became moot a year later when his father died and left him a little over a million dollars. Shirley's parents told me that while we were all waiting to be seated in the bar at the Hickory Pit restaurant at the Edgewater in Laughlin.

I want to add to this, after responding to a comment on another Forum:

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

5. Playing at the "high roller" level will no doubt offer even more comp credits which could be converted to gift cards and gas cards as well as marketable merchandise

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These high rollers will no doubt generate substantial comp points over and above anything needed to pay for their hotel and food. I suggested originally that they could use these extra comp points to buy gift cards or merchandise. But they could also use the extra comp points to buy "free play" and the free play has a multiplier effect -- because all "coin in" whether it is real dollars or free play dollars is used to generate more comp points and more free play.

And there will also, I am sure, be extra incentives for the high rollers... and I think this could well be a positive play for them even before the monthly cash drawings or the big drawing for a million at the end of the year.

As I also noted, I don't think Rincon cares who wins this promotion -- a high roller or a penny slot player (as unlikely as that seems). Rincon has a limited liability here -- they already announced what their liability is. Now they want as many players as possible to compete -- and the more competitors, the greater the casino's profits, because the two million in prizes is already "on the books."

Unfortunately for everyone else who plays, the winners of the drawings are likely to be those few high rollers who dominate those $100 machines with the better VP paytables and especially if they play on Tuesdays with triple entries.

Dancer mentioned on another forum that he did not know Rob Singer. Yet, here we have Singer claiming they were together at a dinner. Curious?

Dancer couldn't have inherited a million from Dad. In his book he said Dad was giving it to a charity.:rolleyes:

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Originally Posted by arcimede$

Dancer mentioned on another forum that he did not know Rob Singer. Yet, here we have Singer claiming they were together at a dinner. Curious?

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Learn to read other than what's on a prescription. I said I met SHIRLEY'S PARENTS.

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Originally Posted by Rob.Singer

Learn to read other than what's on a prescription. I said I met SHIRLEY'S PARENTS.

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Yeah right, that's why Dancer knows nothing about you. Your lies are getting so obvious and so desperate you are looking like a little kid crying for his mommy.

Let's do a little fact checking here. First, Rob posted this:

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Originally Posted by Rob.Singer

Shirley's parents told me that while we were all waiting to be seated in the bar at the Hickory Pit restaurant at the Edgewater in Laughlin.

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And Arc responded with this:

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Originally Posted by arcimede$

Dancer mentioned on another forum that he did not know Rob Singer. Yet, here we have Singer claiming they were together at a dinner. Curious?

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And Rob responded with this:

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Originally Posted by Rob.Singer

Learn to read other than what's on a prescription. I said I met SHIRLEY'S PARENTS.

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And Arc responded with this:

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Originally Posted by arcimede$

Yeah right, that's why Dancer knows nothing about you. Your lies are getting so obvious and so desperate you are looking like a little kid crying for his mommy.

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Now, I never had dinner with Shirley, if I ever sat next to Bob Dancer in a casino I probably wouldn't recognize him even though I did go to one of his lectures about six, seven or eight years ago, and I never met Arc, and I've never been to Laughlin, and I've never played One Eyed Jacks, and I still don't understand SPS...

but it seems to me that right here we have a good example of how World Wars are started because misstatements or misreadings of statements escalate. Happy New Year to everyone.

Well, getting back to the original subject: this "play" at Rincon.

Over on LVA the idea of trying this got slammed because it wasn't demonstrated to be an upfront positive play from the get-go because the 8/5 Aces and Faces machines return 99.26% and they used data from VP Free, I guess, that shows the free play were less than what I had estimated. Well, I estimated the free play and cash back (also free play) based on my experience and honestly I don't know how current VP Free's data is.

But the promotion on the face of it, without hitting the monthly drawings for $50K or the year end drawing for one million dollars, isn't too bad compared to others that have been hyped by some columnists. And, what's so wrong with playing for this promotion on Tuesdays for triple entries plus having a house edge of less than half-percent whether you use my estimates for free play and comps and cash back or you use the VP Free figures that the LVAers point to?

If a high roller cycled through ten million dollars his theoretical loss would be less than $50,000 without hitting one of the drawings. He would dramatically improve his chances for winning by playing only on Tuesdays, and by being sure he was there on the last Saturday of each month plus New Year's Eve for the actual drawings. By playing on Tuesdays, he would have 3-million entries. ($10-million coin-in equals 1-million tier points which are tripled for Tuesday play.)

By the way, there aren't many players who get one million tier points in a year. That alone puts the player at a tremendous advantage.

Now for those who still think the one-half of one percent house advantage (edge) is still too much, I just want to point out that Bob Dancer with all of his money (and Rob, I do not doubt that he has money) has done worse. For example when he played the slot machines for the "spin to win" at South Point. Excerting from his article, he wrote:

"At 4%, I was expecting to lose about $4,500. Instead I lost at a 14.28% rate." At Rincon we're talking about an edge of less than half of one percent and which might even turn into a positive edge based on the free play promotions and dominance of the drawings.

I only wish I had the money for this one. Even if I didn't win the million dollars, I'd have gas cards and Macy gift cards to keep me driving and shopping forever.

I went back over on that other Forum to review the detailed math work done by one of the posters and his conclusion was that a high roller would be "a $4K/mth. loser." And the high roller would "therefore have to hit one of the top monthly drawings once in the year to essentially break even."

Well, I think the high roller is going to hit one of those $50k jackpots or more. And losing only $4,000 a month is a lot better play than some of the other "advantage plays" I've been reading about on that other website.

I removed my comments from there because the usual suspects already started to attack me, and yes there was a mention of Rob. I could see where the "discussion" there was going. It was going nowhere since most of the "assumptions" were wrong. They even quoted something on the Internet about $50 coin-in for one point on certain high denomination video poker. Absurd. Even Caesars/Rincon's own published rules state clearly it is $10 per point. Also there was no consideration of additional free play, comps, or the use of excess comp points to buy gift cards or additional free play. In other words, they made up their minds based on their own limited info.

Alan, we've been snowmobiling the past few days and I crashed mine on Sunday resulting in a bit of fuzziness, but what's clear is that anyone who knows anything about gambling can very easily tell that the Rincon promo is a huge +EV opportunity for the AP's of the world. Discount whatever the hacks are saying on LVA. An AP doesn't need to hit ANY of the drawings or get any of the extras associated with this deal. All they need to know is the theoretical value of the drawings along with a few other estimates that they do with promos all the time in order to justify pouncing on something and risking a bundle. If anyone over there is trying to make the Rincon deal seem not worth their time, it's only because they don't have the money to keep up, they can't get there often enough, or--and this is the more likely scenario--they don't really play like they purport to play (as in arci playing nickels and never posting his supposed jackpots). And if that phoney fedomally was involved in the discussion, you can be sure he did everything possible to make the promo seem not worth it.

Good job exposing the extent of arci's lying about what I said. Now if you understood the lengths he goes to derail the facts about this, no one in their right mind would possibly believe anything else he says. I'd say he should feel right at home on LVA.

Typical Singer bluster and projection. Nothing new here.

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Originally Posted by Rob.Singer

what's clear is that anyone who knows anything about gambling can very easily tell that the Rincon promo is a huge +EV opportunity for the AP's of the world. Discount whatever the hacks are saying on LVA. An AP doesn't need to hit ANY of the drawings or get any of the extras associated with this deal. All they need to know is the theoretical value of the drawings along with a few other estimates that they do with promos all the time in order to justify pouncing on something and risking a bundle. If anyone over there is trying to make the Rincon deal seem not worth their time, it's only because they don't have the money to keep up, they can't get there often enough,

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Getting to Rincon is of course an issue. But "getting there" never stopped the teams from Reno or Vegas when the $5 DDB progressive was high enough. I'm pretty sure this is close to "even" with all of the comps and free play that is available, even before the monthly drawings are added in. The monthly drawings definitely will make this a +EV deal for the high rollers who, without a doubt, will dominate the drawings. That is something that goes over the heads of the folks on LVA. They never dealt with a month long or year long promotion such as this.

Sure, in a short term promotion of a weekend or a few days, it's unlikely anyone can dominate a drawing. Even Bob Dancer has not been able to dominate a drawing in a short term promotion and he has written about this. But this is a year long promotion where money can literally buy a huge advantage in the drawings.

Not only will money buy the largest number of entries based on the denomination played (nothing is bigger than the $100 single line video poker machines at Rincon, and there are only six of them), but only those with "money" can be sure to be there every Tuesday for triple entries, and only those with "money" can be sure to be there every time there is a drawing -- the last Saturday of each month plus the million dollar drawing on New Year's eve.

Sure there are other players at the casino who will have their "play" entered, but can they generate enough entries? Can they afford to be there every Tuesday for the maximum entries with "triple entries"? Can they afford to be there on the last Saturday of each month to have the potential to win the monthly $50,000 cash prices or the $5,000 per hour of free play drawings? And can they afford to plan in advance to be there next New Year's Eve?

This is why this promotion is destined to be won by a high roller or high roller team that can play on the big machines, can play on Tuesdays, can be there for each of the monthly Saturday drawings and can be there on New Year's Eve.

Unfortunately, I can't meet ANY of those requirements. I certainly can't afford the $100 games. Tuesday is a busy work day for me. I can't guarantee that I can be there every Saturday at the end of the month for the drawings, and frankly my wife and I don't like to drive around New Year's weekend. So I am effectively shut out of winning this promotion. I'd be better off playing daily $40 tournaments at The Bicycle casino than spending more money on that on gas just driving to Rincon trying to win this promotion!

But someone or some group with money can plan to win this, and they will win it. It's designed for high rollers to win.

And Rob, I'm sorry you crashed. We are all hoping that when the fuzziness clears that maybe it knocked a little compassion into you.

I agree with just about everything you said. Most people certainly could not meet all the attendance and play criteria, but a vp pro absolutely could. What's a few trips a week from LV to SD when such a big pot of gold awaits the dedicated high-rolling AP? Dancer is already a perennial 7-Stars player, and he claims he goes around the country to various CET properties to locate, create, & play " positive plays" in a corporation known mostly for cutbacks and the poorest of paytables. Here's an absolute gem of a play practically right down the street from him. If I were him (or at least if I were the character he's created in the vp community's minds) I'd jump on it!

On that other forum I was asked to justify my points about free play offers and I used my own example of what I get and I suggested that $100 players would be getting a lot more which would dramatically improve their chances to dominate this Rincon promotion throughout the year. Arc responded on the other thread with "OMG, it turns out money is an APer afterall" and I'd like to ask here if you agree with my numbers now?

Of course your evaluation is correct Alan, and all you'll get from any self-proclaimed "APer" is a plethora of excuses why such a good play, isn't good. Why? Well, as I've exposed so often over the years, most chest-pounding "APers" really don't play the strict way they espouse. Most or even all in fact, never met a full-pay (not "over 100%") machine they wouldn't play because being an AP by definition means the player is addicted to playing.

LVA and/or videopoker.com are hardly the forums to bring the Rincon play up at. Those forums are full of hacks, phonies, and truly unknowledgeable people who would rather complain about being cheated out of a 2 fer 1 buffet coupon than understand how to play properly. I suggest bringing it up on the Wizard's forum where you'll get some REAL analysis and input, and where arci can't get away with his nonsense because the forum admin. has ten times the intelligence, ability, and even bankroll than he does.

I think it's appropriate that I also post here what I post on the LVA forum where I was criticized for saying the Rincon $2-million promotion is an advantage play. The latest "challenge" is about the free play that high rollers get, but my critic who goes by "roadtrip" has accepted some of my information conditionally. Apparently he doesn't believe a word I say. So here is my latest post:

So the debate comes down to this:

We have two months where we know a high limit player on the $100 8/5 Aces and Faces machines will get a return of at least 99.86% and then for ten more months will have about 100.26%. Since I am math challenged, what is the annualized rate for the full year? (No other comps, perks, or drawings included.)

Well, I don't know if I did the math correctly but I get an annualized rate of 100.193-percent for the full 12-months, not including any additional comps, perks, or wins for the drawings, or even additional free play or value from gift cards purchased with reward credits.

Now a little inside info:

The 8/5 Aces and Faces is the last of the better paying video poker games for the high limit slots at Rincon. Last year they got rid of all of the full pay games including 9/6 jacks and regular 8/5 Bonus. Somehow two games slipped through the cracks -- 8/5 Aces and Faces, the 8/5 Aces Bonu$ are still available at the $100 and $25 level. (They are also available as low as 25-cents, however.)

9/6 Jacks is no longer on the property in fact throughout Rincon you will find 8/5 Jacks.
8/5 Super Aces Bonus is available only as high as $5 which is the only other full pay game.
There is an 8/5 Bonus double super times pay game but that, I think, only has a maximum of 50-cents per coin.

And then I posted this update because I might be challenged for using a higher return for the first two months of the year before the "free play" starts:

I might have made a mistake, depending on your interpretation, roadtrip.

If we used the first two months with just the return of the game at 99.26% plus ten months at 100.26% then the annualized rate is 100.093% for the full 12 months. Still above 100% without additional comps, perks, drawings, multiple point days, additional free play, gift cards, free drinks, pretzels or all the handiwipes you can take from the cage.

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

On that other forum I was asked to justify my points about free play offers and I used my own example of what I get and I suggested that $100 players would be getting a lot more which would dramatically improve their chances to dominate this Rincon promotion throughout the year. Arc responded on the other thread with "OMG, it turns out money is an APer afterall" and I'd like to ask here if you agree with my numbers now?

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Alan, it's your numbers so I'm not sure anyone else can validate them. However, your math appears to be correct and there were items that would still add to your advantage (like this promotion).

thanks Arc. I assure you I am not getting any special deal. I do have the mailers from the casino, and if they want me to take photos of them and post them I would be happy to do that.

For my friends in Vegas, they should know that the competition to give comps is very intense here in Southern California. There are even four card clubs here in LA that "pay" players as much as $10 an hour to sit at poker tables (limited number of hours at the $10 rate). But in general $5 an hour is about average.

There are about ten million people living within a one hour drive of Pechanga, Rincon, Pala, Morongo and about a half dozen other Tribal Casinos and that makes this market even more competitive than Vegas because So Cal has more potential customers and much fewer casinos.

Now, the key thing is that there are a limited number of "better paying" games. Rincon, for example, has no more than 6 of the $100 games with 8/5 Aces and Faces. (It might only be four.) 9/6 Jacks or Better can no longer be found. Penny slots abound and of course we don't know what the payback is on those but we can't imagine it will be high. On table games while there are the regular payouts such as 3/2 Blackjack, and full payouts on craps the bet amounts are LIMITED which limits the casinos' risk.

I guess those folks who play in Vegas and in Florida don't realize the better deals here in SoCal, which is why many of us have STOPPED going to Vegas so often.

"roadtrip" is a known forum hack and has very limited knowledge on how to manufacture a +EV vp "opportunity". That's why I suggested you post your thoughts on the wizard's forum. The place oozes with escaping intellect, and they would love to analyze the heck out of this one.

Based on what I've read so far, since there's no serious vp player who could bang away at the $100 machines year-long, I suspect there will be a LOT of $5 players going after this. YOU might even think about chasing it.

I couldn't for several reasons including a lack of money and I can't play on Tuesdays. But I know some $5 DDB players who could chase this.

Alan, the rules state that you get one entry for every tier credit (except on Tuesdays for about 17 hours it's three entries per tier credit). Please refresh: how much thru gets one tier credit?

Even though it's impossible to figure the value of those multiple $1000 fp & $50,000 drawings--or even that year-end $1,000,000 draw (even though AP's regularly estimate such things in order to justify the plays as good)--because you'd never know how many entries are in play, only a blind dufus would claim this is not one of the best play opportunities around, if not THE BEST, especially given the available games, the special cash giveaway days having nothing to do with this promo, along with all the other ancillary items you mentioned. I see this as a 3%-5% "positive play" at the end of the day, if you add in those gas cards, the food, and all those other extras. In fact, who knows what kind of other specials a player would get who plays millions thru each month.

I haven't read anything on LVA, but if any of them can't see this play as a mid to high roller's vp dream come true, they're exactly the hacks that their reputations have earned.

Rob: for video poker $10 of coin-in earns 1-tier credit. Each tier credit earned on Tuesdays gets 3 entries. For slots, $5 of coin-in earns one-tier credit. Again, if played on Tuesdays that tier credit earns three entries.

I don't understand the reference about "17 hours" so please explain that?

I agree this is a high roller's dream come true, especially since there are a limited number of $100 machines with the last of the best games in the casino -- the $100 aces and faces. Though I am pretty sure $100 Aces Bonu$ is there also.

My only regret is that I can't hang out there all day and night Tuesdays to see who is playing those machines.

Bob Dancer just wrote about a promotion at the Riviera that he played... on a game with under 99% expected return. http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/bob_dancer/2013/0108.cfm Really??

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

Bob Dancer just wrote about a promotion at the Riviera that he played... on a game with under 99% expected return. http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/bob_dancer/2013/0108.cfm Really??

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That tells you what an idiot gambler he is and how Shackleford is easily manipulated by this phony. That promo was bad from the start and only got worse. Dancer used every trick in the book to create a positive play out of thin air, and for what? TO JUSTIFY PLAYING WHEN HE KNEW HE SHOULDN'T HAVE, AND TO GIVE CREDENCE TO LOSING UNTOLD THOUSANDS IN THE PROCESS. As I've said many times, advantage play manufactures the biggest addicts in the vp community. And you can tell when things are over-the-edge bad. Dancer ALWAYS puts in some irrelevant info about his wife in the middle of his tales of going down the tubes. I really think he can't help himself talk about these things, as it mirrors problem gamblers who actually WANT to lose so they can face the newfound challenges they've just created.

That approx. 17 hours (in a day) is something I read on the Rincon site about the amount of time entries are earned from play for the "other" cash giveaways each month.

Once again robki demonstrates his lack of any understanding of mathematics. Alan, when all he does is attack another person in a comment and his attack is completely silly, you should consider deleting it. These kind of attacks are exactly what you don't need on your forum.

Yes, Rob, it surprised me that Dancer wrote about this promotion as well. I couldn't imagine the promotion being beneficial when the games from the start were so poor. He was putting too much emphasis on the 5X points on one day.

I raised it here because Rincon has better games -- much better, in fact for advantage players -- plus triple entries on Tuesdays.

I am not familiar at all with this reference to "17 hours" so can you point to something I can read on the Rincon site? Can you copy and paste or give a link?
I do know that certain "free play" promotions run from 8am till midnight -- but that's 16 hours. For example on Sundays this month there are "mystery cash" bonuses that you have to download/upload from 8am to 11:59pm. But again, that's 16 hours. There are other free plays that can be used 24 hours a day including weeklies and certain dailies and the monthly.

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Originally Posted by arcimede$

Once again robki demonstrates his lack of any understanding of mathematics. Alan, when all he does is attack another person in a comment and his attack is completely silly, you should consider deleting it. These kind of attacks are exactly what you don't need on your forum.

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Arc, to tell you the truth, I don't see Rob's comments as being too far off. When you read Dancer's article you're kind of scratching your head and saying to yourself "this is an advantage play" or "what was he thinking?"

Now it's true that the promotion was changed by the casino but at that point you might want to bail.

Im also not clear about this: did he tell his audience about this promotion ahead of time, or as it was going on, or told no one until the publication of the article? Not that it matters, but a true journalist would not keep inside info to himself and act on it. If he knew that the promotion had changed he should have announced it to his public followers whether it be on the radio or through his website columns. There is an element of public trust that must be recognized.

Dancer says he didn't mention this fabulous "positive play" (or, "good bet" according to the Wizard) because he didn't want others to muscle him out with their participation. Take what you will out of that. What I found typical of him is when he discovered the play wasn't "all that" as he espoused it would be, he couldn't bail. Most responsible players would say WHY NOT?.

As for arci's illogical comment about "the math", if he had read Dancer's column he'd have seen it was all right there for eyes to see because that's Dancer's MO--explain his play choices in detail after it's all done. Please read things before making empty comments next time.

If anyone noticed, Dancer ended his column by bad-mouthing everything about the Riviera including the employees' competence, exhibiting an immature level of understanding about how casinos operate...and why. He deflected the blame for the entire fiasco on the Riviera, when vp pros should know and be prepared for--and take the appropriate steps necessary as required when options are exercised mid-promo by casino management--any potential moving targets. He displayed as childish an attitude here as I've ever seen from him, and it unfortunately may be age-related.

Just the basic facts as Dancer describes them tells me it wasn't close to an advantage play. When you combined the expected return on the game he was playing with the cash back included it was only a 99% return. He was banking on the 5X points promotion which the Wizard was told about but which never happened -- and it wasn't in the rules when he got there. Secondly, he was banking on winning more promotion drawings but the promotion drawings were not that big and he was pretty much shut out and certainly didn't get the big ones that would have covered his losses from playing the negative video poker game.

So to sum up the facts as Dancer reported:
1. He could not confirm the 5X multiplier and he played anyway hoping it would come through -- but it didn't
2. He says the machines were tight and he was on a game that even with cash back returned only 99%.
3. The potential prizes weren't that big and he admitted he'd be "locked up there" all weekend for so many drawings during the day.

This is the first Dancer article I can recall where he didn't spell out the loss he incurred. Usually he names the number and explains why, despite the loss, it was a good play. I do not recall him ever skipping the amount lost.

Considering the fact he ran out of money, I think a logical conclusion is that he took a really ugly beating -- so ugly he didn't want to mention the number.

He's supposed to keep firing--he's an advantage player. Loss limits are no good. Hit up the ATM, sell your portfolio, borrow from ARCI, keep firing because it's a good bet and in the long run he will win.

Or maybe not-lol

Dancer's articles have become a map of how to go broke playing vp. Especially for those who don't get shill show-up money and rebates.

What percentage do we use for free cheap liquor to determine the .001% edge we are playing for.

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Originally Posted by regnis

He's supposed to keep firing--he's an advantage player. Loss limits are no good. Hit up the ATM, sell your portfolio, borrow from ARCI, keep firing because it's a good bet and in the long run he will win.

Or maybe not-lol

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Ya know, regnis, you raised a really important and valid question here: When does an advantage player throw in the towel on an advantage play?

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

Ya know, regnis, you raised a really important and valid question here: When does an advantage player throw in the towel on an advantage play?

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Or just recognize that it is an RNG and he (or the machine) is in a cold cycle.

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Originally Posted by regnis

Or just recognize that it is an RNG and he (or the machine) is in a cold cycle.

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Advantage players don't believe in cold cycles. So when do they throw in the towel? We need a resident advantage player to respond.

No wonder the Wizard recently said on his forum that things weren't going so well gamblingwise. I believe these two "expert APers" pooled their money for this one, and now at least Dancer's pointing fingers and blaming everyTHING and everyONE but himself for getting roped into what Alan identified as clearly NOT an "advantage play". And who puts that much money thru ANY machine at a dump like the Riviera anyway. Look for one or both of their marriages to take a hit over this.

When I was 21 (many years ago) my first several trips to Vegas were to the Riv.

They say it has been remodeled but I walked over there a few months ago and the smoke is so thick with the low ceilings you couldn't really tell.

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

Advantage players don't believe in cold cycles. So when do they throw in the towel? We need a resident advantage player to respond.

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Let's put up a poll as to the various things that Arci will say

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

Advantage players don't believe in cold cycles. So when do they throw in the towel? We need a resident advantage player to respond.

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I can answer that as a former AP. You NEVER throw in the towel unless all fund sources are exhausted when you're losing because, as the saying goes, it's not whether you win or lose; it's whether it was a good play or not. In this particular case, Dancer showed he believes in luck, as he really did expect to win several large drawings. Too bad/so sad. Now it looks like arci and his 7 cashout tickets, is the last of the "winning" APers :)

Long live arci--here here

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Originally Posted by regnis

Let's put up a poll as to the various things that Arci will say

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I am starting another thread with a poll. But it will be more general.

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Originally Posted by regnis

When I was 21 (many years ago) my first several trips to Vegas were to the Riv.

They say it has been remodeled but I walked over there a few months ago and the smoke is so thick with the low ceilings you couldn't really tell.

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I went there one day this past year when they had that $1000 loss rebate promo. I won a few hundred in about a half hour and quickly left--never to return. The place reminds me of a bigger Ellis Island.

Do you mean the casino or the prison?

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Originally Posted by regnis

Do you mean the casino or the prison?

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Yeah, it's hard to tell the people apart who go to those places.

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

Advantage players don't believe in cold cycles. So when do they throw in the towel? We need a resident advantage player to respond.

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With random events players will experience hot and cold streaks. The machines do not. The machines will still be providing winning hands all through a cold streak. The players simply aren't hitting the keys at the right time to score the big wins.

With today's technology and continuous shuffle a player only see about one hand in several hundred thousand possible ones.

You never know when a cold streak will end because the length on any cold streak is also random. They can be long or they can be short. That's life when playing VP. It's all random. Making pattern based decisions when hands are based on an RNG is the epitome of nonsense.

I will add this, Arc, you never know you are in a cold cycle until after you have been in a cold cycle. And of course no one knows when a cold cycle will end or when a hot cycle will start or when it will end.

And for these reasons you might want to accept one of the following:

1. Never make a second bet
2. Quit after you win because you may never win again
3. Quit after you lost because you might lose more

LOL

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

I will add this, Arc, you never know you are in a cold cycle until after you have been in a cold cycle. And of course no one knows when a cold cycle will end or when a hot cycle will start or when it will end.

And for these reasons you might want to accept one of the following:

1. Never make a second bet
2. Quit after you win because you may never win again
3. Quit after you lost because you might lose more

LOL

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What one should 'accept" is that the cards will tend toward the frequencies expected with a random deal. That is, you will each and every card about the same amount. While you may see a variety of results in the short term, over time your results will approach the ER of your play.

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Originally Posted by arcimede$

What one should 'accept" is that the cards will tend toward the frequencies expected with a random deal. That is, you will each and every card about the same amount. While you may see a variety of results in the short term, over time your results will approach the ER of your play.

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Of course I agree but let me ask this question: why do certain games give certain premium pays to certain combinations?

Why do quad aces in DDB pay more than quad jacks when both quad combinations have the same frequencies?
Why does a royal flush pay more than a steel wheel (ace through five suited)?

Did anyone ever come up with a "low ball" video poker game?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by arcimede$

What one should 'accept" is that the cards will tend toward the frequencies expected with a random deal. That is, you will each and every card about the same amount. While you may see a variety of results in the short term, over time your results will approach the ER of your play.

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Or you can take a beating like Dancer did.

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

Of course I agree but let me ask this question: why do certain games give certain premium pays to certain combinations?

Why do quad aces in DDB pay more than quad jacks when both quad combinations have the same frequencies?
Why does a royal flush pay more than a steel wheel (ace through five suited)?

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Because they wanted to have games with more excitement. Remember there's only one way to get aces, there's 3 ways to get 2-4 and 9 ways to get 5-K. There is a game where aces pay the same as eights.

Also, there is nothing that relates pay outs to probability.

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Originally Posted by regnis

Or you can take a beating like Dancer did.

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That has nothing to do with VP itself. It has to do with promotions. Dancer assumed he was going to lose at VP while covering the losses and then some in the promotion. Did he miscalculate? Don't know. But a smart person should realize no one wins every promotion. If you know the odds then just alike a good VP game you will hit enough to make a profit over time.

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Originally Posted by arcimede$

That has nothing to do with VP itself. It has to do with promotions. Dancer assumed he was going to lose at VP while covering the losses and then some in the promotion. Did he miscalculate? Don't know. But a smart person should realize no one wins every promotion. If you know the odds then just alike a good VP game you will hit enough to make a profit over time.

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I would like to read more of his success stories. Not about the big ones that got away.

By the way, Pala Casino which is just down the road from Rincon (and actually closer to the 15 Freeway than Rincon) is now advertising its own year-long $2-million dollar promotion which is also based on play and has weekly drawings for cash and a car throughout the year -- but no year end million dollar drawing.

Later today I am going to call the marketing folks at Pala (if I can get through to them -- I've emailed them in the past and never got a response) to check on the details. There is information on their website www.palacasino.com .

The casino's website says:

•Use your Privileges card at any slot or table game and receive 10 bonus virtual entries for every Tier Point earned into our Four Car Giveaway Grand Prize Drawings.

However, I can't find info as to what constitutes a "tier point" and if slot play and table play and video poker play are the same or different?

But that didn't happen now several reported times for dancer. As Alan always says, it is still an RNG. Even if dancer miscalculated the edge, why does a point or less result in such a big loss. And why didn't he keep playing til he got even.

I'll tell you why--it is still all up to the cards and the RNG---and you just have to hit at the right time. Dancer just keeps proving that contrary to the claims of the APs

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Originally Posted by regnis

and you just have to hit at the right time.

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This of course is my criticism of the AP mantra. The APers say that the pay table will determine the results over the long term and I say that long term is only seen by the casino.

I still think you have to get lucky and hit the right percentage of winning hands or have a bankroll that is big enough to carry you over the Grand Canyon of losing sessions.

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

I would like to read more of his success stories. Not about the big ones that got away.

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Bob (as are many APers) is not prone to giving away their good plays. It may turn out that Bob hasn't had much success in these one time promotions lately so that's all he has to talk about. Also, he has gotten criticism in the past for being arrogant. Some of that was due to writing about big wins. So, he may be trying to answer those critics. Finally, he may be trying to subtlety dissuade people from going to Vegas to become pros which would reduce competition for good plays.

Arc, are there really enough good plays for anyone to be a pro anymore in Vegas? I remember my lunch with Frank. He said there wasn't except for the short stint of those pooled machines at the M which were removed after a short while.

Alan, (or anybody) speaking of good plays; I know of a casino here in SoCAl that has 10/6 Double Double Bonus Poker (100.07 payback with perfect play). It can be played at $1, 2, 5 and 25 levels. Now my question is: Do I shout it from the rooftops and inform VPFREE2 OR Do I keep my mouth shut and just play it myself. My concern is will the casino get rid of the game if there is very little play or will the casino get rid of it if there is too much AP play?
I see that you must have checked out my Super Aces game at Rincon. When I told you about it before you weren't sure it was full pay, and now you know it is one of the few full pay games at Rincon.

Jim

You shout it out here.

Ok Alan, just wanted to double check the facts before I did any `Shouting'. The game is 10/6 Double Double Bonus Poker, BUT the payback is only 99.958%, not 100.067%. They pulled the old trick of lowering the Straight Flush to 40 (200 for 5 coins). It is also only available at the $1, $10 and $25 dollar levels. At the $5 dollar level it changes back to 9/6 (250 for straight flush), 98.981% payback; why? I have no idea. It's at Agua Caliente in Rancho Mirage, in the High Limit room. They also have 9/6 Double Double Bonus Wheel Poker. I don't know how to calulate the payback, but I like playing it.
Jim

Alan I think the best play for a 7 stars player at Rincon is to play this promotion on point multiplier days`, not Tuesday. On Wednesday you would get 5x points for a comp level of .5%. At the prefered free play redemption rate for 7 stars your .5% comp rate becomes a .4% cash back rate the 99.25% return becomes a 99.65% return plus benefits. Don't you think taking the cash back rate from .08% to .4% offers better return than going from single drawing entries to triple drawing entries? I guess the real question would be...Is the marginal value of an additional drawing entry greater than .21%?

Thanks bigfoot66. You made a good point about the extra comp points on multiplier days (both Mondays and Wednesdays during January, I don't have the schedule yet for February) would allow a high roller to earn more gift cards and free play, but did you read my report on the first drawing this past Saturday?

Here is the link: http://vegascasinotalk.com/forum/showth...-000-winner-is...

A high roller did indeed scoop up the $50,000 cash plus three of the $1,000 drawings and frankly I don't know if she played on any Tuesdays at all. She had at least 150,000 entries in the system without any play on Tuesdays. I had 58,000 entries in the system without playing on Tuesdays (I couldn't) and I won nothing on Saturday (I also lost a damn poker tournament and lost playing video poker for an extra kick in the pants... Saturday was not my day).

But the real challenge is being the million dollar winner on New Year's Eve. So let me ask this: how does the extra comp points from play on Mondays and Wednesdays compare to being the million dollar winner on New Year's Eve? And don't forget the other $100,000 per month drawings through the rest of the year.

These are academic questions at this point for me, because I know I don't stand a chance.

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

I won nothing on Saturday (I also lost a damn poker tournament and lost playing video poker for an extra kick in the pants... Saturday was not my day).

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Wait, this couldn't be true. I thought a person using win goals always won.

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

But the real challenge is being the million dollar winner on New Year's Eve. So let me ask this: how does the extra comp points from play on Mondays and Wednesdays compare to being the million dollar winner on New Year's Eve? And don't forget the other $100,000 per month drawings through the rest of the year.

These are academic questions at this point for me, because I know I don't stand a chance.

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I suspect the comp points will always be an advantage for someone who doesn't "stand a chance". Now, we know that claim is not true. Even a person with one ticket has "a chance".

You could do an approximation of your chances. If you can guess at the number of tickets for all the drawings you can put a value on them. For example, if you determine you have a 1000-1 odds on the million dollar drawing playing on Tuesdays than that is worth around $1000. Same consideration for the monthly drawings. You then compare that to having fewer tickets by playing on point multiplier days. Finally, you take the difference and compare that to the difference in freeplay, etc.

This is standard fare for APers.

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Originally Posted by arcimede$

Wait, this couldn't be true. I thought a person using win goals always won.

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Win goals protect the wins. I didn't have any. I lost from the get-go. However, my stop loss protected me from going broke. I lost my budgeted limit for the day and then stayed around for the remaining drawings and shmoozed with the managers and Total Rewards crew to get the information I used for my report about the drawings. I also enjoyed a nice dinner with my comps.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by arcimede$

I suspect the comp points will always be an advantage for someone who doesn't "stand a chance". Now, we know that claim is not true. Even a person with one ticket has "a chance".

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As I wrote in my report on Saturday night, a Total Rewards person told me that one of the $1,000 free play winners in fact only had one-point (free entry) in the drawing.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by arcimede$

You could do an approximation of your chances. If you can guess at the number of tickets for all the drawings you can put a value on them. For example, if you determine you have a 1000-1 odds on the million dollar drawing playing on Tuesdays than that is worth around $1000. Same consideration for the monthly drawings. You then compare that to having fewer tickets by playing on point multiplier days. Finally, you take the difference and compare that to the difference in freeplay, etc.

This is standard fare for APers.

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Over on the Rincon facebook page I suggested that with the prize pool and the 2500 players there for the drawings (the place was packed, hard to find a seat at anything) it worked out to $40 per player there. If the estimate I got of 2.5-million entries in play (each entry = one tier credit) then I figured the winner of the $50,000 had probably 12% of the entries in the drawing. See my report from Saturday for details.

I had about 58,000 entries at the time of the drawing, or about 2.3% of the entries. When I checked in for the drawing (you had to swipe your card and a Total Rewards employee verified it) I got a raised eyebrow at the number of points I had. Later, when a TR staffer told me there were about 2.5-million entries and I mentioned I had about 58,000 he told me I had a lot. Yet, there was still the luck of the draw and I didn't even get one of the $1,000 free plays (which by the way would have made me a very happy camper).

None of my play in January will count towards February's drawings, but it will count again in December. However, the chances that I will be there New Year's Eve are very slim.

But let's talk about New Year's Eve. How many entries will there be? I think January was the big month for entries because I think after this past drawing, a lot of "lower level players" will realize there is only a small chance of winning anything, so I think for the rest of the year the number of players who show up for the drawings will be fewer. With the exception of New Year's Eve where I am sure the casino will be packed -- as it is every New Year's Eve. But again, being there does no good unless you have entries from previous play.

So, I am going to make some assumptions. I am going to assume that January's "entries" of 2.5-million will be the peak, and for the rest of the year the monthly entries that will show up in the December draw (remember only those who show up have their tier credits actually entered) will average 2-million per month. On New Year's Eve I think the entry pool will be about 25-million.

Let's say I continue to play at my January pace (unlikely, but for the purpose of this I will make the assumption) I will have 696,000 tier points or entries. Let's round it to 700,000 to make it easy. I will have 2.8% of the entries which would give me $28,000 value for the drawing?

I am estimating that my "cost" of getting that many entries, based on my January play, (and I hit no royals in January), at about $8,000. $8,000 is just one royal at the $2 level which is what I am playing now on the 8/5 Aces and Faces. And I am not including the free play and comp values for my play.

So Arc, do you still think its an advantage play for me, and an even better advantage play for a high roller (perhaps at baccarat)??

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

Win goals protect the wins. I didn't have any. I lost from the get-go. However, my stop loss protected me from going broke. I lost my budgeted limit for the day and then stayed around for the remaining drawings and shmoozed with the managers and Total Rewards crew to get the information I used for my report about the drawings. I also enjoyed a nice dinner with my comps.

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Your memory seems to be fading. If you go back and check you will see I highlighted this as one of the likely results that eventually leads to win/loss goals having no affect on the ER. And, for all you know your loss limit actually prevented you from turning the day into a winner. That's the problem with randomness ... you never know what's going to happen in the future.

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

Over on the Rincon facebook page I suggested that with the prize pool and the 2500 players there for the drawings (the place was packed, hard to find a seat at anything) it worked out to $40 per player there. If the estimate I got of 2.5-million entries in play (each entry = one tier credit) then I figured the winner of the $50,000 had probably 12% of the entries in the drawing. See my report from Saturday for details.

I had about 58,000 entries at the time of the drawing, or about 2.3% of the entries. When I checked in for the drawing (you had to swipe your card and a Total Rewards employee verified it) I got a raised eyebrow at the number of points I had. Later, when a TR staffer told me there were about 2.5-million entries and I mentioned I had about 58,000 he told me I had a lot. Yet, there was still the luck of the draw and I didn't even get one of the $1,000 free plays (which by the way would have made me a very happy camper).

None of my play in January will count towards February's drawings, but it will count again in December. However, the chances that I will be there New Year's Eve are very slim.

But let's talk about New Year's Eve. How many entries will there be? I think January was the big month for entries because I think after this past drawing, a lot of "lower level players" will realize there is only a small chance of winning anything, so I think for the rest of the year the number of players who show up for the drawings will be fewer. With the exception of New Year's Eve where I am sure the casino will be packed -- as it is every New Year's Eve. But again, being there does no good unless you have entries from previous play.

So, I am going to make some assumptions. I am going to assume that January's "entries" of 2.5-million will be the peak, and for the rest of the year the monthly entries that will show up in the December draw (remember only those who show up have their tier credits actually entered) will average 2-million per month. On New Year's Eve I think the entry pool will be about 25-million.

Let's say I continue to play at my January pace (unlikely, but for the purpose of this I will make the assumption) I will have 696,000 tier points or entries. Let's round it to 700,000 to make it easy. I will have 2.8% of the entries which would give me $28,000 value for the drawing?

I am estimating that my "cost" of getting that many entries, based on my January play, (and I hit no royals in January), at about $8,000. $8,000 is just one royal at the $2 level which is what I am playing now on the 8/5 Aces and Faces. And I am not including the free play and comp values for my play.

So Arc, do you still think its an advantage play for me, and an even better advantage play for a high roller (perhaps at baccarat)??

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First of all you cannot remove the freeplay and comps you value from a decision that is looking at the overall value of a play. You have to look at everything. Since you didn't elaborate on these essential elements no one can determine if it's an advantage play for you.

Second, a 2.8% chance of winning a single drawing is enormous. And it gets multiplied on all the smaller drawings based on the number you attend. To determine the value you need to look at all of the drawing you are eligible to win. For example, if you attended 10 drawings during the day for $1000 you have 10*2.8 or a 28% chance of winning at least one. The fact you didn't win is not surprising. On average you will win one every 4 months.

Next, I wouldn't count on fewer players in the future. New people are finding out about the drawing all the time. Some people will always show up because they gamble regularly whether there's a drawing or not. The big question is whether your chances would increase upward from 2.8% over time. The number of high volume players makes that a difficult question but I would not count on any reduction myself. If it happens and your odds increases, that's gravy.

Now that you say my chance of winning a $1,000 drawing is once in four months, the contest is even less appealing to me.

It will certainly be interesting to see how many players show up for the Feb 23rd $100,000 drawing. No big "teams" showed up in January. And I know a lot of "average players" are disappointed by the slim odds of winning anything, and there is even anger that one player can win more than one drawing. But those are the rules.

A few minutes ago, on Facebook, someone who played with "Nancy" on Saturday night said she was a high stakes baccarat player. I'm trying to find out about the maximum bet at the game. I was told the max bets are usually $100 or $500 but that might not include playing multiple positions and at some casinos they allow multiple bets at each position.

Remember, that doesn't include the big monthly prize or the year end prize. And, you could get lucky and hit more than 3. Although, you did indicate you would not be there for all the drawings so your real odds are probably less.

BTW, do you activate entries at a kiosk? If so, you could get together with other players and share player's cards so they could activate your entries for you and you for them. If you got 4 players together you'd only need to go early once every 4 months.

Even if another player had your card to activate your entries there are still requirements about being there. For the hourly free play drawings, you have until midnight that night to pick them up. And for the big cash drawings there is a ten minute limit before they call another name.

Bacc is minimum $100 (or $50 on weekdays) and max is $5k. I have probably played with Nancy, then. I love that high limit Baccarat. My favorite game by far.

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Originally Posted by bigfoot66

Bacc is minimum $100 (or $50 on weekdays) and max is $5k. I have probably played with Nancy, then. I love that high limit Baccarat. My favorite game by far.

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Yep, just confirmed its $5k but I was told "one seat only." Is that what you have found to be the rule? I ask that because I was told that this past Saturday someone was at a table game playing $15K a hand.

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

Even if another player had your card to activate your entries there are still requirements about being there. For the hourly free play drawings, you have until midnight that night to pick them up. And for the big cash drawings there is a ten minute limit before they call another name.

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The point is you wouldn't have to go to the casino early. Just show up late and collect your winnings plus participate in the big drawing. You had stated you could not get away early. This way you can participate in all the drawings which would increase your advantage.

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Originally Posted by arcimede$

The point is you wouldn't have to go to the casino early. Just show up late and collect your winnings plus participate in the big drawing. You had stated you could not get away early. This way you can participate in all the drawings which would increase your advantage.

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You are correct. In fact I recall that some Total Rewards members gave friends spare cards to swipe when they visited other casinos around the country for the Great Escape promo (I think that's what it was called) when you earned comps for visiting different Caesars properties in different states.

Right now, my chance of winning the million dollars on New Years Eve is about zero because it is very unlikely I will even be there on New Year's Eve. I am more likely to be home at 11-PM after an early dinner at a local restaurant, and at 11-PM watching reruns of the ball drop in Times Square.

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

Yep, just confirmed its $5k but I was told "one seat only." Is that what you have found to be the rule? I ask that because I was told that this past Saturday someone was at a table game playing $15K a hand.

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I am sure that if you wanted to play $15k a hand they would let you, but $5k is the normal max, They might open a reserved table for you or something.