Craps as a game of skill.

I consider craps to be a game of skill. And that will really get some people upset.

What is craps? Well, first of all I should say that I referring to traditional dice craps -- and not card craps that is played in California. Because in traditional dice craps, two dice are given to a player to roll or "shoot" and the result of the player's roll or shot determines the wins and losses of the game.

And that is where craps becomes a game of skill. Because, if the shooter can influence the dice, or can make the dice show a particular number -- or not show a particular number -- the shooter and the other players can win their bets, or not lose their bets depending on how they bet.

Everyone who throws the dice has a particular goal. "Right way" shooters want to hit the numbers they are betting on. "Wrong way" or "darkside" shooters want the dice to show a 7 after a point has been established so they can win their bets.

So players who have the "skill" of getting the numbers they want to show on the dice have a tremendous advantage. This is why I say that craps is a game of skill.

Now, we all have to ask and all have to wonder -- does anyone have this skill? Can anyone pick up two dice and hit the numbers they want or miss the numbers they want? This is not only a question of great debate but it's also a question with a lot of money at stake.

Books and videos and tapes have been marketed and sold telling craps shooters that yes, they can with practice and certain techniques hit the numbers they want or avoid the numbers they don't want.

I have purchased some of these books, and I have paid to attend certain lectures and classes, and I believe that to a certain extent the "skill" is possible. However, and this is a very big however, I cannot say that I have ever witnessed in person anyone with an ability to influence or control dice that goes beyond random chance.

Theoretically what the dice controllers and influencers preach makes perfect sense. I think a robot could do it. I think a robot tossing two dice with a controlled throw at a certain speed and trajectory with the dice aimed at a certain spot on the table and with a measured toss to reach a certain point on the back wall, could duplicate the same desired numbers on the dice over and over again. It's really simple physics that for every action there is a reaction. And if you can exactly duplicate the throw of two dice you should -- barring earthquakes, gusts of wind, players' hands hitting the dice -- get the same result over and over again.

But humans do not have the ability to control two small cubes the same way over and over again.

Even professional athletes who hit golf balls, sink three-pointers on basketball courts, deliver fast ball strikes and curve balls, and hit targets with arrows cannot at will hit the same spot repeatedly or repeat the same shot -- the exact same shot or pitch -- repeatedly.

I wouldn't say that dice influencing or dice control is not possible. I do say that so far I have never seen anyone do it with a high enough repeat factor to say they could influence or control the dice.

So the bottom line is that craps is a game of skill, but I just don't know of any human with the skill to be a consistent winner at it.

My position on dice influence has been stated before, but I do feel that the strategy and money management required to win in craps is also a skill. You must take advantage of the hot roll when it comes because they are too few and far between. I have seen too many people watch a big hand because they simply lacked guts. Wrong game for the faint of heart.

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Originally Posted by regnis

You must take advantage of the hot roll when it comes

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You are absolutely correct! But how do you know when a hot roll is coming? Is it anything like knowing when a video poker machine is in a hot cycle? (OMG, Ooops. LOL)

I get a telegram from Rob-lol

On my most recent trip to Flamingo I hit a 5 point fire at Margaritaville. Alan, I can send you the photo if you'd like? I do consider myself a "DI" and have taken classes with Heavy and Dice Coach. I do practice often and consider my shot "textbook" to what the proponents are attempting to teach. But, just like anyone else, I have long hands and short hands. I win some trips and I lose some trips. This year I am going to write down every session I have on the craps table and see if I am a loser or winner.

Regarding the all elusive "Hot Roll"- How do we quantify it? How do we attempt to find it? All very good questions and I have some ways in which to identify a Hot Roll but I have never really done any statistical analysis to confirm these hunches. Just like most gamblers, I play and hope a good roll comes along. I have "hunches" and I wish I would listen to them more often. There's nothing worse in craps when you hear that little voice say. "I should probably come down" Next toss 7-Out! "Damnit!_

By all means send your photo to alan(at)alanbestbuys.com or you can upload to our forum server from your computer by clicking on "go advanced" and following the link for "manage attachments." Please put it in the thread for "Big Casino Wins and Jackpots."

And say hello to Heavy for me. We go waaaaay back... to the beginning of the DI fever.

I guess the following advertisement wasn't true:

"THE FINAL FLING!!

October 15, 16 and 17th, 2010!

After ten years in the Dice Control Seminar business, Heavy has announced The Final Fling - his sayonara seminar in fabulous Las Vegas, Nevada. It all happens October 15, 16, and 17 as some of the world's top dice influencers get together for an exciting weekend of craps education, fellowship, and live casino sessions. "

Are these the original guys that Scoblete and the Dominator split off from??

When I first met Heavy back in the 1990s he was part of Jerry Patterson's group which included Sharpshooter, the author of the "textbook" on dice influencing and dice control. In fact, in 2006 one of the articles from my website showed up on the Dice Coach website: http://www.dicecoach.com/articlearch.asp?ID=46 And I think others showed up even years before that one.

At one of the early seminars Scoblete was rumored to be bringing along "The Captain," but that didn't happen. If you asked me today who was working with who I couldn't tell you.

Recently Heavy has been posting on wizardofvegas. We haven't spoken in years but there was a time when there was an Internet discussion group that we were all on every day about craps and that forum was taken down about five or more years ago.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a change in the design of craps table. A mechanism that rotated a different landing area with changes to the hardness would do the trick. The dealer could change the surface between every toss of the dice. And, if they did it right the selection of the surface would be controlled randomly with a simple push of a button.

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Originally Posted by arcimede$

I wouldn't be surprised to see a change in the design of craps table. A mechanism that rotated a different landing area with changes to the hardness would do the trick. The dealer could change the surface between every toss of the dice. And, if they did it right the selection of the surface would be controlled randomly with a simple push of a button.

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Wow, slot machine craps! Come to think of it, they have a type of slot machine craps now with a giant bubble with two giant dice that are jumbled by the machine and you place your bets on a touch screen. But I won't play it.

No, the table would look exactly the same. The change would occur below the surface where the dice land.

Yes, I understand the concept, Arc. The table surface could be controlled by a RNG in fact you could even add motion to the table surface for ripples and waves in the "dice landing area" or have little "pins" that pop up through the felt. It would turn a dice table into an obstacle course. The first high tech dice game. I think you should copyright the idea and submit it to some company such as IGT or ShuffleMaster. ShuffleMaster (stock symbol SHFL) is the company that bought the Fire Bet and is now expanding from just being a card shuffling company to all sorts of casino and online games.

I would like to return to this thread. I keep saying to myself that no other casino game relies solely on the player to reach a decision. Only craps relies on the decision coming from the player who shoots the dice.

I am not saying that any dice shooter has the skill to control the dice, but if they did have the skill to control dice there is nothing that the casino could do to inhibit that skill except to block that player from shooting.

You are correct. Alan. Only in craps does the casino hand the control of the outcome of the game to the player. That is what makes the game of craps so exciting. Even if the shooter cannot control the dice, he/she can feel like they do. The casino can hassle the shooter by immediately saying in a loud voice; "hit the back wall with both dice each and every time" or "hit the back wall harder," etc. but their only real defense at this time is telling then they can't shoot. This is similar to handling a card counter in blackjack, though there are more things they can do in blackjack such as shuffling up, shallow cut cards, flat betting only.
Give me the excitement of craps any day!

Love craps..I recently tried a new method where I stand to the right of the stickman and use my left hand to softly throw the dice,( I am right handed) barely hitting the back wall...I have done very well even though I set the dice...it is pretty much a random throw...and I can control the dice...just not for long periods of time.:cool:

It's been a couple of years since there's been any activity on this thread.
I still think craps is a game of skill -- whether or not any player has any skill to impact the game.
What other game in a casino does the fate of the outcome rest entirely in the movements of a player?
If casinos offered wagering on darts or shooting hoops then craps would not be the one and only skill game.

It has to be a game of skill. how else could someone throw 18 yos in a row?

I haven't played golf since college. It's because I have no skill playing golf. But I frequently play mini-golf. Several times when playing mini-golf I've gotten a hole-in-one. It wasn't because I had skill -- it was because I got lucky. But that doesn't mean golf isn't a game of skill, does it?

The shooter who threw 18 yo's in a row didn't exhibit anything but random throws with dice bouncing all over the layout. He got lucky.

But that doesn't mean craps isn't a game of skill for someone who could influence the dice.

A couple of years ago at the Peppermill at Reno, I was chastised by the box man at a craps game for tossing the dice softly to the other end of the table. He yelled: "Throw those dice harder, it is a game of luck not skill!" In that circumstance, I had already hit two points. My hunch is that if I had just doing "Point-Seven-Out", he would not have yelled at me.

FAB

Game of skill


When we talk about this type of stuff. we start to ruffle more than just a few feathers...... certainly true, but the real question is
why.

People in the various sites on craps all have their central positions, and when you go against that, whether that is the GTC
site, Wizard site, or any of the other sites, your going to be on thin ice and catch hell.

Why I wonder, since it should be clear enough to any level headed player that there is no one single answer to beating a
craps table, there cant be since all tables and dice are different. So there cant be one single way to throw, or sets to use,
and therefore there cant be one single way to bet. All systems or styles or what ever you think you can use to get an edge
has to be able to be tweaked a tad.

I am baffled by this circle the wagon mentality.

I do agree 100% with Alan that craps is a game of skill. But what kind.

I have found and said on other sites there is no question you can develop a toss that is repeatable to some
extent. Then you can change sets and get a different arrangement of outcomes. So If you can change outcomes, why
does it not follow you can beat a casino anytime you want.

The answer is for 2 reasons, changes sets and getting different main number sets does not remove your exposure
to the 7. It is always there. The GTC shot for instance with the hardway set and an on axis finish brings you closer
to a 7 on every roll than a random player would be, because that finish has 4 ways to make a 7. Now an off
axis set and finish, say a 3v exposes your finish to only 2 ways to make a 7.

So here is where the skill comes in, you have to be able to throw consistently enough to where you can keep your
dice in a finishing position or set of 2v 3v or crossed 6's, not easy to do.

Alan has said a number of times he saw what he thought were dice setters because they had a repeatable roll
and got repeatable result.... exactly correct, most dice setters see that themselves, some days on some tables
you have better results with different sets than others, because for what ever reason, at that time your toss
was better. All things that require a release, archery, bowling, pitching etc, craps, show different results from
day to day because we are different or the setting was different... this is not rocket science, it should be
expected. Then couple that with the fact that the craps toss is 10 times harder than any of the rest, and you
would expect variance.

Part of the skill in craps is to have more than one type of shot, because some shots don't work well on longer
or bouncy tables. You have to pay attention to land position on tables, that can affect your results, then their
are the dice, which can and do vary.

I have talked about charting a table, by that I don't mean in a way that the results you see tonight can be
used tomorrow. I mean is there something you see at this session which can be exploited.

Part of the skill is how to bet the money you bring to the table.

As I have said, I don't believe in dice control... the type that you can take with you from table to
table, day to day.... and fill your pockets with their money..... I view that as sheep dip.......

But I know you can be skilled enough in these areas to bend the HA and when your on, it will dam
well feel like your in control, and when your off, you still have a better than average chance.

To me that is skill

dicesetter

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

Wow, slot machine craps! Come to think of it, they have a type of slot machine craps now with a giant bubble with two giant dice that are jumbled by the machine and you place your bets on a touch screen. But I won't play it.

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I was playing video poker at Ellis Island and unfortunately one of those damn robot dice games was right next to me. The female voice on the thing made me want to grab a crowbar and smash it into a thousand pieces. It was the most annoying, too loud, repetitive blare. I could not stand it.

dicesetter you make a lot of good points.

I don't see the point in charting a table, but I do see a reason to chart your own results. If you have a particular set and a particular throw, then your results will vary table by table -- and for the reasons you said including the bounce and the length. So yes, before you start betting heavily even on your own throw you should see what numbers your own throw are producing.

I think the other key thing you mentioned is having the skill of betting. The key to winning at craps is to bet the numbers that the dice are showing. If you are betting 6 and 8 but your dice are showing 4, 5, 9, and 10 you won't win. For that reason you have to see how your rolls are going, what numbers are showing, and then hope that the trend continues.

I've never had a talent or a skill for hitting numbers on command or even knowing which numbers I will hit. I simply want to avoid rolling 7s. If I can avoid the 7s eventually the numbers where I have bets placed will be hit. This is why I love the Small, Tall, All bets -- I have hit the All several times and I have hit the Small or Tall on their own multiple times. I use the Cross-6s set which favors the outside numbers which is critical for hitting the Small, Tall, All.

The most important thing is this: yes, craps is a game of skill because you, the shooter, have the ability to win because you throw the dice. There is no RNG. There is no dealer shuffling cards. The fate of your money is in your own hand or fingers. To deny that it is a game of skill is foolish. And again, that doesn't mean anyone has the skill needed. But it is a game of skill.

Because it is a game of skill why not try to learn the skill? The critics of Dice Influencing won't even concede that it's okay to TRY it. Why are they so closed-minded? They will advocate playing BlackJack where you can have some help from the "count" and card counting -- but whether or not you get that count depends on the shuffle. In craps there is no shuffle. It's all up to you and you can tell if your set and toss is working or not.

The dice ARE the RNG.

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Originally Posted by jbjb

The dice ARE the RNG.

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One of the most ridiculous things Ive ever read. Think about it, and then correct your statement.

Wait a minute Alan. What he means is how he cruises the casinos with a bagfull of 400 die. He then takes them over to the cashier and after counting them out she hands him 40 EXTRA die, making it 440 after dragging him in for this oh-so-special promotion. It was truly an advantage play, and he now has 40 new die that when two are selected for the roll, he can say they participated in a "Really Neat Game".

This is what he meant. And he considers it a 10% advantage.

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

One of the most ridiculous things Ive ever read.

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And exactly why you are and always will be a habitual casino loser.

This thread is hilarious.

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Originally Posted by RS__

This thread is hilarious.

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Well...this whole site has to be a joke. Right? More nonsense here than it's possible for 18 yo's!

Over the years I've been part of many online discussion groups and the critics of dice influencing have always demanded proof. There probably isn't proof and there probably never will be. There can be statistics but the critics will always discount "good statistics" as being luck.

In baseball, a batter who gets on base fewer than one-third of the time but is a .300 hitter is a great hitter. How many great rolls does a Dice Influencer need in craps to be a dice influencer?

Tiger Woods doesn't win every tournament (Woods won 25.2% of his starts on the PGA Tour). Dan Marino didn't complete every pass (lifetime completion 59.4%). Pete Rose didn't win every bet (oops, wrong thread).

The point is simply this: the casino gives the dice to a player to throw. If the player can throw the dice to hit the numbers he is betting on he will win. That makes craps a game of skill because the shooter will determine the outcome.

Craps tables are fixed objects. They don't have moving pyramids or bouncing layouts that can alter the dice's path once they are thrown. So it all comes down to the shooter's ability to hit the right numbers with the dice.

Are the records of Tiger Woods and Dan Marino good enough for a casino craps dice influencer?

Sure, a golfer could drive a ball off the tee 300 yards, 301 yards, 299 yards or 300.5 yards. A baseball player could hit a 475ft, 480ft or a 500ft home run. A quarterback could have the skill to throw a football right on the receiver's number or just within reach of his outstretched arms. They would all still be successful because what they are doing does not require the same level of precision as a shooter trying to hit his numbers playing craps. Not only does he have to hit his number, he has to avoid rolling the seven as well.

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Originally Posted by a2a3dseddie

Sure, a golfer could drive a ball off the tee 300 yards, 301 yards, 299 yards or 300.5 yards. A baseball player could hit a 475ft, 480ft or a 500ft home run. A quarterback could have the skill to throw a football right on the receiver's number or just within reach of his outstretched arms. They would all still be successful because what they are doing does not require the same level of precision as a shooter trying to hit his numbers playing craps. Not only does he have to hit his number, he has to avoid rolling the seven as well.

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And this begs the question how do you define or rate that skill?

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Originally Posted by redietz

I was playing video poker at Ellis Island and unfortunately one of those damn robot dice games was right next to me. The female voice on the thing made me want to grab a crowbar and smash it into a thousand pieces. It was the most annoying, too loud, repetitive blare. I could not stand it.

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Hilarious. Sit by one and when the voice said, "You can be the shooter!"' I wanted to shoot-her!

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Originally Posted by a2a3dseddie

Not only does he have to hit his number, he has to avoid rolling the seven as well.

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This is the key question: what metric do you use to accept that someone is influencing the dice? How many times does he have to roll the dice without a 7? How many passes does he have to make? How many numbers does he have to roll if he isn't making passes?

How do you judge whether someone is influencing the dice or not?

In baseball, for example, there are great hitters for hitting home runs... and there are great hitters for just getting on base.

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

This is the key question: what metric do you use to accept that someone is influencing the dice? How many times does he have to roll the dice without a 7? How many passes does he have to make? How many numbers does he have to roll if he isn't making passes?

How do you judge whether someone is influencing the dice or not?

In baseball, for example, there are great hitters for hitting home runs... and there are great hitters for just getting on base.

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Well, craps is gambling, so the only metric that makes sense is if the shooter is able to make a long term profit "influencing the dice". That might mean rolling a seven more than 1 one 6, less than 1 in 6 or rolling the numbers he has bet on.

Since the casino is able to offer the game and make money operating on what... a 1.41% edge?... I'd say if you were able to influence the dice, negate that 1.41% edge and get anywhere into positive EV territory I'd consider that successful. Factor in the comps and you'd be nicely ahead.

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Originally Posted by a2a3dseddie

the only metric that makes sense is if the shooter is able to make a long term profit "influencing the dice".

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I can't influence the dice-- but I try.

But frankly, to say that if someone only needs a long-term profit I don't think properly defines a dice influencer. Random shooters, chicken feeders, can win at craps and can have long-term profits.

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

This is the key question: what metric do you use to accept that someone is influencing the dice? How many times does he have to roll the dice without a 7? How many passes does he have to make? How many numbers does he have to roll if he isn't making passes?

How do you judge whether someone is influencing the dice or not?

In baseball, for example, there are great hitters for hitting home runs... and there are great hitters for just getting on base.

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It depends on how far away their SRR is from expectation. If their SRR is 10, it shouldn't take many rolls before you can say "there's a 1% chance this is a freak occurrence, and a 99% chance he's actually influencing the dice". Whereas, if his SRR is 6.1, then it's going to take many many rolls before the same type of conclusion can be drawn.

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Originally Posted by RS__

It depends on how far away their SRR is from expectation. If their SRR is 10, it shouldn't take many rolls before you can say "there's a 1% chance this is a freak occurrence, and a 99% chance he's actually influencing the dice". Whereas, if his SRR is 6.1, then it's going to take many many rolls before the same type of conclusion can be drawn.

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How many tests of the SRR must there be? I hit the ALL at Bellagio four times. Does that make me a DI?

One time at Caesars I rolled a 6 on the come out. I rolled for the next 25 minutes without hitting the point and made several dozen numbers... does that make me a DI?

I don't think I'm a DI even though on occasion I've shown a very high SRR.

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

How many tests of the SRR must there be? I hit the ALL at Bellagio four times. Does that make me a DI?

One time at Caesars I rolled a 6 on the come out. I rolled for the next 25 minutes without hitting the point and made several dozen numbers... does that make me a DI?

I don't think I'm a DI even though on occasion I've shown a very high SRR.

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Depends how many times you got the dice (at the B). 50 or 100 or 200 rolls is not sufficient unless your results are way out of the ordinary. And cherry-picking very small samples of data isn't going to "make you a DI".

And I'm certain that many times, your very first roll was a 7 as well bringing that SRR ratio back to normal.

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Originally Posted by jbjb

And I'm certain that many times, your very first roll was a 7 as well bringing that SRR ratio back to normal.

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Sure you can roll a 7 on the first roll... and on the first three rolls. If you are a passline bettor and you are not concerned about losses on the Small, Tall, All bets you welcome those 7s. And if your passline bet amount is more than your STA bets, then you still make a small profit. For example: $25 pass, $5 on the Small, $5 on the Tall, $5 on the All... you still come out ahead $10.

What's more important in craps is not your SRR, but if you are hitting the numbers that you have money on. A shooter with a great SRR but pets only 6, 8 but rolls only outside numbers is going to lose.