Let's list the CET full pay/full tier VP machines here

By "full pay/full tier", I mean the following must be true:

- Game must have a theoretical return of 99.00% or higher

- Game must have a demonimation of $1-$5 per credit, or the ability to play multiple hands to bring it up to the equivalent of $1 per credit (such as 5-play 25c/credit).

- Game must award one tier credit per $10 wagered

The list will include all forms of VP. This includes games like Ultimate X or Double Super Times Pay.

Here is what I know remains, though there are probably ones I've missed (for example, I seem to recall someone mentioning a 99.40% Ultimate X game at Flamingo)....

Harrah's Lake Tahoe: 9/6 Jacks or Better (99.54%), both 3/5 play for $1/credit and 50-play for 25c/50c/$1 per credit
Harrah's Reno: 9/6 Jacks or Better (1-play) at $1/credit (though this will take you a LONG time -- about 10 hours to earn 2500)
Harvey's Lake Tahoe: 9/6 Jacks or Better 1-play for $5/credit

Harrah's New Orleans: "Not So Ugly Ducks" Deuces Wild (99.73%) 3/5/10 play for $1/credit
Harrah's New Orleans: 9/6 Jacks or Better 3/5/10 play for $1/credit

Harrah's Rincon/Resort SoCal: Bonus Poker Ace$ (99.40%) (1-play) $5 per credit
Harrah's Rincon/Resort SoCal: Bonus Poker Aces and Faces (99.26%) (1-play) $5 per credit
Harrah's Rincon/Resort SoCal: Bonus Poker (99.17%) (1-play) 25c/50c/$1/$2/$5 per credit

Please add to this.

Please do NOT add games of $10/credit or more, as that is outside of most people's bankrolls.

Dan what about playing one coin on $25 vp machines at Caesars. You will find full pay with $10 per tier point. Your loss would only be on a royal.

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

Dan what about playing one coin on $25 vp machines at Caesars. You will find full pay with $10 per tier point. Your loss would only be on a royal.

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No. That's brutal because it will not be full pay. With the severe reduction of the royal (by a factor of 5), a 99.54% JoB machine would become a 97.94% JoB machine. Ouch.

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

No. That's brutal because it will not be full pay. With the severe reduction of the royal (by a factor of 5), a 99.54% JoB machine would become a 97.94% JoB machine. Ouch.

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Okay... but what about those one hundred or so sessions when you don't get a royal?

Bossier City Horseshoe has one machine you can play $1 up to $25 single game featuring a 5000 coin royal which I have never hit BTW. The BP is 8/5 and the DDB is 9/6. There are some other games on it but those are the only ones that I play.

They also have a circle of triple play $5 machines that have 9/6 JOB, 8/5 BP, and 9/6 DDB. These machines and the 5000 credit royal machine are located in the HLR.

Dan, the mindset that a game is "not playable" on a visit because of 97% vs. 99%, especially if the theoretical reduction is only due to the royal, is state-of-mind absurd. And it's why most people who play video poker really do not know what they're doing, and why. Broken record time from this level to that one.

It seems to me that Dan is looking for full pay games where $10 coin in earns one tier credit and one reward credit -- so he can maximize comps and tier score. In that case, the pay for a royal is secondary especially since a royal is a 1/42000 event for many games.

If you want to maximize your tier score and reward credits at $10 per point in Vegas then there is nothing wrong with going into the Palace Court slots area and playing one coin on a $25 8/5 Bonus or $25 9/6 Jacks machine. You'll get your 7 stars and your RCs.

To get the maximum of 5,000 earned tier points in a day, at a $25 game with one coin in, you would play 2,000 hands. That would also earn you 10,000 bonus tier points for a total of 15,000 tier points in a day.

Do that for 10 days and you score 7 Stars with 20,000 hands played. That's less than 1/2 of a "royal cycle" so why worry about what you would "lose" if you hit a royal? You're not likely to hit one -- so go ahead and stick to your plan to get your 7 Stars at the lowest possible cost.

But Alan, AP's have talked themselves into believing that any reduction in theoretical long-term "edge" even when playing just one hand, is detrimental to the cause. As silly as that is, that's why I call their confusing logic nothing more than a state of mind. Something fully supported by the casinos everywhere by the way, with the array of non-stop over 100% theoretical "opportunities" they offer vp players on a daily basis.

Rob both Jason and I know you and share your belief about "full house pays." We've both played long sessions and never got a full house. Hitting a full house at 8/5 or 7/5 Bonus (or Aces and Faces) never decided whether or not we were going to have a winning session. What determines a winning session is hitting quads and -- believe it or not -- how many two-pair we get.

You can't reasonably play video poker for royals. What will make you a winner is managing your money so you know when it's time to walk.

All I'll say is that I've gotten a royal on my third hand after sitting down. The fastest one I've ever gotten. You just never know what will happen.

Like Dan, I do not wish to play games that make you play $50 through to earn 1 tier credit and assuming there is no monkey business in the programming of the video poker machines it is nice to get an extra credit each time you get a full house or a flush. Over a period of a few hours of play the difference can add up. Royals and 4oak's are still far more important. Alan, the strategy you outline above is exactly what Dan did to hit 7 star earlier this year.

I think his motive for starting this thread is because there really are not that many places anymore at CET where you have an opportunity to play VP machines with EV paybacks in excess of 99%. Before they put the new machines in at Bossier City Horseshoe, there were 99%+ machines quarter and higher everywhere there. I am surprised that Tahoe so far has made no downgrades since the changeover to the new machines. Even the quarter BP and the Mountain Bar at Harvey's are still 8/5 which has an EV of 99.17%.

When we were in Atlantic City last month the quarter 9/6 machines at Caesar's had been changed to $50 per tier credit and the quarter progressive triple play 8/5 BP machines at Bally's had been changed to $25 per tier credit. The screws continue to tighten on VP players at CET all around the country with the exception of Lake Tahoe for some reason.

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Originally Posted by seemoreroyals

...The screws continue to tighten on VP players at CET all around the country with the exception of Lake Tahoe for some reason.

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This is the case at almost all casinos, not just CET. Caesar's Windsor has full pay Pick Em that is $80 per tier credit. Sure that's Canadian but probably not much difference. And no, I've never been there not played it.

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Originally Posted by jbjb

This is the case at almost all casinos, not just CET. Caesar's Windsor has full pay Pick Em that is $80 per tier credit. Sure that's Canadian but probably not much difference. And no, I've never been there not played it.

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When we were at Windsor a couple of years ago on one of our 7 star trips the best pay tables they had even back then were 8/5 JOB and 8/5 DDB. I enjoyed the property and surrounding area but did not gamble much. They had a nice DL and we were able to get comp tickets to see Lionel Ritchie in concert who was very good BTW. We did not get any decent offers afterwards so we have not been back.

I already accept the fact that my days of "Seven Stars" could end at any time. I already made 7 Stars for 2015 so it will continue in 2016 also. But so what? All that gets me is "line cutting."

You don't have to be 7 Stars to be a smart gambler or to have a great time when you go to Vegas. And I am not one who lives or breathes by everything Caesars has to offer. I don't care about cruises, and I have no interest in unlimited hotel stays.

There's a reason I'm sure you all know why the let the higher tier players in line first. They want you back at the games as fast as possible losing more and more money. I'd rather wait longer if that's the case.

Players cards are nothing more than a data mining tool for casinos.

If you're going to play more than 20,000 hands in your lifetime, it makes no sense to take a hit of more than one percent with less than max coins in. There's no way around it. I know, I know, Rob is immune to such vagaries. God, however, is not in my corner, and I'm not blessed by Allah or Mephistopheles, either. So as a mere mortal, I pay attention to such things.

If you're looking for reasonable video poker and you're 50 or more years of age, I suggest Boyd's various properties with a dose of Stations. You can get consistent multi-point days, usually Mon-Wed, with different properties assigning different days. The multi-points push you into the gray area of comps/free buffets/discounted movies/free vp tournaments combined with 99% games to create a pseudo-positive EV.

It may almost be time to assign Seven Stars aspirations to the scrap heap. The dominant model in Las Vegas has failed. As Alan said, you get to cut lines. Might be time to suck it up and, if you want to be close to the Rio for WSOP, consider the Extended Stay across the street or Budget Suites/Emerald Suites up on Trop. If you rack up the Boyd rating, Gold Coast on weekdays might provide quite a few comped rooms.

redietz is right -- It absolutely is time to give Seven Stars a low priority -- it's not what it used to be, the benefits aren't there, the offers aren't there either. Even a stay at Caesars isn't what it used to be -- it's no longer a luxury hotel with luxury service.

Regarding the WSOP, I figure if you need 30-45 days of comped rooms to handle it, you should be able to book Extended Stay across the street well in advance and try to lock in a reasonable rate of $70-$80 a night. The Budget Suites up on Trop would be a step down, but not horrendous, and would cost a third as much. There are other options -- time share rentals -- further west on Trop a few blocks that would be reasonable, also.

I really like working out of the Rio rooms, and I've never really figured out the reason why. It's a good working layout for me. But I wouldn't do Seven Stars if I were a WSOP player unless an opportunity like Dan managed this last year presented itself.

Actually Dan didn't have the greatest deal. "Kilgore" claimed to have non-stop stays at Caesars properties. Dan was forced to leave town.

I know WSOP players who rent houses and condos during the tournaments. They aren't 7 Stars. They don't play anything but poker.

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Originally Posted by jbjb

All I'll say is that I've gotten a royal on my third hand after sitting down. The fastest one I've ever gotten. You just never know what will happen.

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I've hit one on my first hand at dollars and went straight home. 285 miles each way and it was 100% worth it. But anyone who either plays for or expects royals is more confused than Bob Dancer is about how to treat women.

It looks like this thread has been hijacked.

To respond to Dan's initial question. The only other CET video poker I know at above 99% pay back at dollars is at Lake Tahoe where there are three 3-play 8/5 Bonus Poker machines in the High Limit Room at Harrah's as well as in a three machine circle at Harrah's near the Harvey's tunnel entrance. Those same machines have 3-play and 5-play 9/6 JOB as a game option. Those six machines do not have 5-play 8/5 Bonus Poker, but if you are so inclined you can play 3-play 8/5 Bonus at the $2 credit level or $30 per hand.

Last year I also saw a bank of 8/5 Bonus Poker at single line play at dollars in Harvey's with a progressive above $4,000 at a Royal Flush. I am not sure these are still there.

FAB

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Originally Posted by Rob.Singer

I've hit one on my first hand at dollars and went straight home. 285 miles each way and it was 100% worth it. But anyone who either plays for or expects royals is more confused than Bob Dancer is about how to treat women.

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I don't blame you for leaving. Mine was while our sloppy dealer was on break.

Just a little example .... I've hit royals for $56,000 this year and I'm ahead by about $25,000. If I had been playing short coin I would have earned $10,000 on those royals and would be behind by $21,000. Anyone claiming that royals are not important is spewing idiotic nonsense.

For the record I don't play for tier points but some players who just want to make 7 Stars getting tier points is their #1 goal. And if that's you and you want your points at $10/pt then one $25 coin at Caesars Palace will do it. Just don't hit a royal. LOL

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Originally Posted by arcimede$

Just a little example .... I've hit royals for $56,000 this year and I'm ahead by about $25,000. If I had been playing short coin I would have earned $10,000 on those royals and would be behind by $21,000. Anyone claiming that royals are not important is spewing idiotic nonsense.

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I can't make any case for playing less than max coin in. Why play a game a percentage point or more inferior to what you could be playing?

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Originally Posted by redietz

I can't make any case for playing less than max coin in. Why play a game a percentage point or more inferior to what you could be playing?

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Alan and Rob's point is because you are unlikely to hit a royal. Makes sense, right? Remember Rob is the guy who says to hold a single Ace instead of a low pair (or whatever the "special" play is) because of all the potential a single Ace has.

You have a much better chance at hitting a royal in 20,000 hands than the chance of hitting 4 Aces or a royal by holding a single Ace. Don't short-coin VP where it hurts the royal payout, it's idiotic.


Alan, are you sure those machines are $10/TC? Last time I was in there I could have sworn they were $25/TC.

Harrah's Lake Tahoe:

9/6 Jacks or Better (Extra Draw Frenzy 3/5/10 Play) (99.62%), $5/$10/$25/credit

8/5 Bonus Poker (Quick Quads 50 Play) (99.55%), $0.25/$0.50/$1.00/credit

Harrah's Atlantic City:

9/7/4 Triple Double Bonus (99.58%), $0.25/$0.50/$1.00/$2.00/$5.00/credit

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Originally Posted by redietz

I can't make any case for playing less than max coin in. Why play a game a percentage point or more inferior to what you could be playing?

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As I explained there are people who want to make 7 Stars. And they can at one-half of a royal cycle.

Actually if playing at $125 per hand is not an issue Dan could play five coins in the $25 games and get 12.5 points for each hand played.

He would only have to play 400 hands per day to get the max tier points with bonuses at full pay with no penalty if he hit a royal.

Dan: why not play $25 coin instead of $5 ??

Huge volatility at an unquestionably -EV game? When you have NOL and Tahoe? Why add that extra risk if your goal is the guaranteed benefits?

And nekaril, where did you see that at Harrahs?

There are two high limit rooms with full pay 9/6 Jacks and 8/5 Bonus at Caesars.

The mini dome room on the main casino floor is $25 per tier point and the denominations are 5, 10, 25.

In the Palace Court slots room (there is a cage there and bathrooms and snacks) they have full pay $25 and $100 machines that are $10/point.

I hit my $20,000 royal on a $5/$10 machine in that room (only one machine) but it was $25/point.

For the record: I don't play for points or comps. I play the best pay tables. But if you want $10/point on full pay games at Caesars you'll get it on $25 and $100 video poker.

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

There are two high limit rooms with full pay 9/6 Jacks and 8/5 Bonus at Caesars.

The mini dome room on the main casino floor is $25 per tier point and the denominations are 5, 10, 25.

In the Palace Court slots room (there is a cage there and bathrooms and snacks) they have full pay $25 and $100 machines that are $10/point.

I hit my $20,000 royal on a $5/$10 machine in that room (only one machine) but it was $25/point.

For the record: I don't play for points or comps. I play the best pay tables. But if you want $10/point on full pay games at Caesars you'll get it on $25 and $100 video poker.

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I actually didn't realize CET LV offered any $10/TC games at 99%+ except at the $100 level - the $25 games aren't listed on VPFree. Regardless, that's too rich for my blood - neither my bankroll nor my stomach can handle $25 single play.

This is just cereal box math, but... assuming you're determined to get $50k coin in, and assuming you only play 99.54 JoB:

$100 single play: 100 deals => stddev ~ $22000
$25 single play: 400 deals => stddev ~ $11000
$5 single play: 2000 deals => stddev ~ $5000
$1 ten line: 1000 deals => stddev ~ $3000
$.25 fifty line: 800 deals => stddev ~ $2700

If your only goal is to make it through ten of those sessions - just enough to make 7* - then arguably your best bet is spending ten days in New Orleans putting in a couple hours a day on their 99.78 DW44 machines. I actually considered that, but I actually decided I like gambling and have been trying to 'tease' some decent offers out of other properties. Totally depends on your goals - I think Dan handled it perfectly, given his goals.

One or two per cent because of a short pay royal means nothing to a player who does not hit a royal. And what are the chances at hitting royal again....class?

There is nothing wrong with what Dan is doing but did you see my latest post on the California forum? The latest rumor is that Rincon is doing away with the remaining full pay machines including 8/5 ACE$ and 8/5 Bonus and 8/5 Aces and Faces. And the rumor is at ALL denominations too. Then what is Dan going to do?

I know what I'm going to do -- cut back my play even more than I've already done.

He seems pretty good at math, I figure he'll weigh the value he gets out of the free hotel rooms against the risks at the best VP he can find with the best promos available and decide whether or not to run for it again in 2017. Rob isn't wrong when he says self-valuation is often done poorly, but I assume Dan has a pretty good handle on how much he'd spend otherwise.

EDIT: Of course, folks with different goals - VP gamblers like us - will likely end up playing less or losing more.

My casino play is now running at about only 25% of last year's pace. And I don't see any reason why it might increase in the months ahead.

Yes, it does look like my thread got hijacked.

nerakil, I am surprised that there are any $10/tier games left in AC. Are you sure about that? You probably are correct, because you've been right about everything else like this, but I'm just curious when the last time you saw that game.

Also, can you explain the 99.64% JoB game in Tahoe? I didn't know that existed. (Though honestly I probably just would have stuck to 99.54% JoB anyway, at $1 5-pay, for variance sake.)

What about the 99.40%, $10/tier at Flamingo? Is that gone now?

To Alan: Running a few hands at a bad royal payout isn't awful, because the chance you will hit a royal in those few hands is so tiny. However, running thousands (or tens of thousands) of hands for less than max coinage is nothing short of idiotic. And I don't want to play $10/credit or more because the variance is way too high.

To Rob: I don't understand you. I gave your system moderate props earlier, recognizing that your strategies give the player a (small) chance to win in the long term, as opposed to grinding to a certain (but smaller) loss. But now you're saying that the huge payouts don't matter, and that it's just fine to take an 80% reduction in the biggest pay the machine has to offer? Huh?? That goes against everything else you've said here for years.

Also, regarding my 7 Stars... I have it now until March 31, 2017, unless they change something.

I am not sure if I will renew it at that point. It will depend upon a few things:

1) If there are still $10/Tier 99%+ games in California or Nevada
2) If I still plan upon taking more Norwegian Cruises. It is possible I will be NCL'd out by 2017.
3) If I still feel like taking those annual trips
4) If they haven't degraded the core benefits significantly

If Rincon/Reno/Tahoe/Vegas all have had their games degraded to worse than full tier/full pay, then my career as a Seven Stars is probably going to be over.

So here are the locations and the last time I played them. All games were $10/1 TC when I played.

Harrah's Lake Tahoe

Bonus Poker (50 Play) Quick Quads: 1 machine in High Limit carousel near Ultimate X video poker, 1 machine near Total Rewards on casino floor (11/2014)

Jacks or Better (10 Play) Extra Draw Frenzy: 1 Machine in High Limit carousel (11/2014).

I also played $2 single line 9/6 Jacks or Better DreamCard (99.56%) and Good Times Pay (99.54%), near entrance in high limit (11/2014).

Harrah's Atlantic City

Triple Double Bonus: 1 machine in High Limit near emergency exit (12/2014)

Flamingo Las Vegas

7/5 $1 Bonus Poker (10 Play) Ultimate X: Bank of All-Star uprights near entrance of High Limit (2/2015)

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Jacks or Better (10 Play) Extra Draw Frenzy, a 6 coin per hand game, remains the highest returning game in Lake Tahoe. However, the minimum denomination is $5, so $60 a pull.

At Harvey's Lake Tahoe, I briefly played a few hands of the progressive 8/5 Bonus Poker $1 single line (99.42% with meter) machines, near the poker room (11/2014).

Dan, my strategy has always been predicated on the fact that I do not need a royal to win a session. I've had droughts just like anyone else, and their absence did not affect my win frequency. But my point in this discussion revolves around what Alan said about playing $25 short coin for anyone trying to get points. I see nothing wrong with that if CET is going to screw players who play lower demoninations.

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Originally Posted by nerakil

Jacks or Better (10 Play) Extra Draw Frenzy, a 6 coin per hand game, remains the highest returning game in Lake Tahoe. However, the minimum denomination is $5, so $60 a pull.

At Harvey's Lake Tahoe, I briefly played a few hands of the progressive 8/5 Bonus Poker $1 single line (99.42% with meter) machines, near the poker room (11/2014).

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Correction: $300 per pull on 10-Play. 30 TC earned per play.

I can confirm this from the last 3 visits to The Rio (down Flamingo Road next to Caesar's Palace and over the bridge).

The Rio has a few $1 8/5 Bonus Poker and $1 9/6 Double Double Bonus on the floor for the standard $10 coin in per tier credit. It is located in between the World Series of Poker wall and the American Grille restaurant, I think they are also next to the Wheel of Fortune progressive slot machines. I do not frequent Vegas myself and personally have no interest in pursuing Total Rewards (though I know its the best casino club program out there for high rollers).

I wanted to add this for those that are thinking about playing this to improve status (Platinum in a day or Diamond in a day or 7* in 10 days). There are no custom speed settings on those machines, so roughly players can do 600-800 hands per hour.

It will take a tremendous grind to do Diamond in a day (I found Dan's play at Harrah's Rincon earlier this year to be amazing). To do Diamond in a day, a player will need access to a $4000 bankroll for less than 10% risk of ruin and set aside at least 12 hours of their time (if one can find the time and energy to do other things after the grind, more power to them) to play 10,000 hands. Halve that effort for Platinum in a day, or if Diamond is person's sole ambition, they can do 2 Platinums in a day.

I know 9/6 DDB has a return of 98.9808% with perfect play, which falls under the 99% requirement. DDB is undoubtedly the most popular video poker game and is on the same machine. Variance is much higher so a double bankroll of $8000 is needed to handle those swings (does not mean you'll lose all of it).

If time is of essence, the most efficient and less time consuming way (also with least theoretical loss) in Vegas (for those that cannot make it to other CET locations), is to play 9/5 Jacks or Better at $5 denomination at the Rio. The 9/6 Jacks or Better is $25 per tier credit, thus 9/5 is the better choice even though you get shorted $25 for each flush (1 in about 94 hands).

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Originally Posted by alpax

I can confirm this from the last 3 visits to The Rio (down Flamingo Road next to Caesar's Palace and over the bridge).

The Rio has a few $1 8/5 Bonus Poker and $1 9/6 Double Double Bonus on the floor for the standard $10 coin in per tier credit. It is located in between the World Series of Poker wall and the American Grille restaurant, I think they are also next to the Wheel of Fortune progressive slot machines. I do not frequent Vegas myself and personally have no interest in pursuing Total Rewards (though I know its the best casino club program out there for high rollers).

I wanted to add this for those that are thinking about playing this to improve status (Platinum in a day or Diamond in a day or 7* in 10 days). There are no custom speed settings on those machines, so roughly players can do 600-800 hands per hour.

It will take a tremendous grind to do Diamond in a day (I found Dan's play at Harrah's Rincon earlier this year to be amazing). To do Diamond in a day, a player will need access to a $4000 bankroll for less than 10% risk of ruin and set aside at least 12 hours of their time (if one can find the time and energy to do other things after the grind, more power to them) to play 10,000 hands. Halve that effort for Platinum in a day, or if Diamond is person's sole ambition, they can do 2 Platinums in a day.

I know 9/6 DDB has a return of 98.9808% with perfect play, which falls under the 99% requirement. DDB is undoubtedly the most popular video poker game and is on the same machine. Variance is much higher so a double bankroll of $8000 is needed to handle those swings (does not mean you'll lose all of it).

If time is of essence, the most efficient and less time consuming way (also with least theoretical loss) in Vegas (for those that cannot make it to other CET locations), is to play 9/5 Jacks or Better at $5 denomination at the Rio. The 9/6 Jacks or Better is $25 per tier credit, thus 9/5 is the better choice even though you get shorted $25 for each flush (1 in about 94 hands).

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I played that $1 8/5 BP machine one day. 11 hours of playtime (one 30 minute break). $57,000 coin in. Never doing that again....too much of a grind.

RS--did you do that for "fun"; or for 7 star; or the pure misery that it sounds like that would be.

For 7*, you would have to put yourself through this ten times a year. Much easier to do what nerakil is doing.

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Originally Posted by regnis

RS--did you do that for "fun"; or for 7 star; or the pure misery that it sounds like that would be.

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I'll help you with that reg. Anyone who plays ANY vp machine or machines for 11 hours in one day has no clue what living life is all about. Anyone who plays for points, status, or slot card tier has no clue what playing video poker is all about. And anyone who claims to play 1200hph for 11.5 hours on the long-time $1 8/5 BP machines in the Rio has had lots of previous experiences talking about the size of fish caught on his fishing trips.

Thanks for the insight Rob. Glad you can do math, too. What's 1200*11*5? Do you remember how much coin in I said I did?

regnis, no I didn't do it to reach 7 stars nor DIAD. Although I am 7 stars now (nothing to do with the Rio play, though). I did it for other reasons, where I was under the impression it could have been a +EV play, but knowing it very well could be -EV......unfortunately it wasn't +EV.....but I did hit a royal and ended walking with a nice $3K [better than losing, that's for sure].

Question for RS__ how could the multi line 8/5 Bonus game be an advantage play?

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

Question for RS__ how could the multi line 8/5 Bonus game be an advantage play?

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The game I was referring to that RS__ played was a single line game. However they do have a 3/5/10 Play 8/5 Bonus for $50 coin in a tier credit, but its the same machine as the 40 straight flush / 10 full house / 6 flush DDB (99.96%).

The free gift, free dinner, and the 5,000 RC generated make up for the $415-420 theoretical loss of 10,000 8/5 BP hands?

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Originally Posted by RS__

Thanks for the insight Rob. Glad you can do math, too. What's 1200*11*5? Do you remember how much coin in I said I did?

regnis, no I didn't do it to reach 7 stars nor DIAD. Although I am 7 stars now (nothing to do with the Rio play, though). I did it for other reasons, where I was under the impression it could have been a +EV play, but knowing it very well could be -EV......unfortunately it wasn't +EV.....but I did hit a royal and ended walking with a nice $3K [better than losing, that's for sure].

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It's close enuf for all your silly theories. And you must have forgotten about that half-hour potty break :)

All's well that ends well. Of course you hit a royal :)again.

alpax, my play at the Rincon isn't as amazing as you might think.

As I was running the play on a 5-play machine which also charges you 2 more credits for the "Double Super Times Pay" feature, I was running $17.50 per spin, even though it was a 50c machine. I was earning 7 tier credits per 4 spins. This meant it only took me about 6 hours of play to run 5,000 base tiers through per day.

I would not run $1 per credit single-play, as that's just $5 per spin, and requires a staggering 5000 of them just to earn 2500 base tiers, which is brutal. That would have taken me like 10 hours to do, as already mentioned here. And there's no way to get 5000 in a day, unless you are going to start near 6am and play 20 hours. No thanks.

Even if you enjoy VP, that amount of play is excessive for most people.

So basically if you don't have the bankroll to grind $2/credit or higher (single play) or the multi-play equivalent, then you shouldn't be attempting Seven Stars.

Even Diamond would take two 10-hour days of play to earn at the $1/credit rate, and that's just not worth it in my opinion.

Also, I wouldn't advise running these on sub-99% machines. In fact, even on low-99% machines (like 8-5 BP), you are likely to take a substantial loss on the way to Seven Stars, unless you luck into above-expectation royals.

Don't expect to be rescued by freeplay. The freeplay is pretty lousy these days at CET, except for new Total Rewards accounts.

Honestly I don't think the Seven Stars is worth it unless you can run it through at 99.25% or better. That's just my own personal baseline, though. The true value of Seven Stars is what each individual gets out of it.

BTW, by my final day of play at the Rincon, my right wrist was hurting badly. I actually developed video poker carpal tunnel!

I had to switch to my left hand for my final 2 1/2 hours of play!

That's when I knew I had been running too many hours within a short period of time!

Fortunately my wrist rapidly improved, and I couldn't feel it anymore two days later.

Thanks, Dan. That is a pretty succinct summary of what is required for Diamond in a Day on up, and it is appreciated. I don't know anybody who has all of the current data and is willing to share as you are.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

alpax, my play at the Rincon isn't as amazing as you might think.

As I was running the play on a 5-play machine which also charges you 2 more credits for the "Double Super Times Pay" feature, I was running $17.50 per spin, even though it was a 50c machine. I was earning 7 tier credits per 4 spins. This meant it only took me about 6 hours of play to run 5,000 base tiers through per day.

I would not run $1 per credit single-play, as that's just $5 per spin, and requires a staggering 5000 of them just to earn 2500 base tiers, which is brutal. That would have taken me like 10 hours to do, as already mentioned here. And there's no way to get 5000 in a day, unless you are going to start near 6am and play 20 hours. No thanks.

Even if you enjoy VP, that amount of play is excessive for most people.

So basically if you don't have the bankroll to grind $2/credit or higher (single play) or the multi-play equivalent, then you shouldn't be attempting Seven Stars.

Even Diamond would take two 10-hour days of play to earn at the $1/credit rate, and that's just not worth it in my opinion.

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I felt the more impressive part was that you repeated the Double STP play for 5 straight days rather than the one session. Double STP increases the variance (a.k.a. the swings) to any game significantly even though it increases the expected return by 0.5%, multi-hand games require the bankroll to get it done too. I do not have high expectations as I am a low roller compared to most people at the casino, so it is impressive to me.

I've been following these forums for sometime and I was under the impression that 8-5 Bonus Poker is the preferred game by Alan and others. That is reason I've brought up the suggestion to begin with. I knew it was a grind so I included a disclaimer since I was trying to be realistic. I would never expect 7* membership to cost next to nothing to get into, though 10 Diamond in a Day session is the most efficient method. It is the top of the line of all casino clubs, CET should not need to give it away like candy even though the benefits were cut.

I do have to correct what I've stated earlier. I ran through the bankroll simulation on the Video Poker for Winners software (runs many simulations) of 10,000 8/5 Bonus Poker hands with a starting bankroll of $4000. The chance of ruin is about 1%, not 10%, meaning you will not make it to 10000 hands played with $4000. This situation should be good for those that are content with being in Diamond.

To finish off the analysis of the play at The Rio (for Diamond in a Day play)

http://s5.postimg.org/nebqgbt87/Bank...onus_Poker.png

The screenshot does not cover the size of each bar on the graph, I manually hovered over the bars.

Bonus Poker has a house edge of 100 - 99.166 = 0.834%. So 0.834% of $50,000 coin in = $417 loss.

You have a 30% chance of being up after 10,000 hands (played with perfect strategy, meaning the basic strategy and mastering all of the penalty situations).
About 6% chance you will do better than expected return, but still lose ($3583 - $3999)
The rest of the 64% chance, you will do worse than expected return.

Video Poker is not expected to be evaluated over one 10,000 hands play session, it will be a continuous run.

Yes, to rack up coin-in on short order, experienced players believe multi-hand games is the way to go.

I know this thread is about creating a guide to mimizing the losses to achieve status. At CET properties, I heard each game is rated a theoretical loss. The 10 play Deuces Wild at Harrah's New Orleans could theoretically be the most cost efficient way to get to Diamond and even 7*, however those machines have a rating of NO theoretical loss. The people who play it without combing their play with a theoretical loss game will not receive any mailers/bounceback offers. There is more than just the theoretical return to consider.

I suggested 9/6 DDB for those that want to gamble. DDB has high variance factor, which can signify how much actual results can deviate from the mean/average from a sample size. Though 9/6 DDB is 98.9808% playing by the book, but after 250,000 hands, there is a 33% you will be in the profit despite a 1% edge, but the bell curve also evens out the other way as well. A 33-38% chance the player loses 2% of their play on a 1% edge game.

Any 40/10/6 DDB at any Caesar's properties?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by jbjb

Any 40/10/6 DDB at any Caesar's properties?

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The Rio has 3 / 5 / 10 multi hand play at $50 coin in per tier credit

Don't care about tier credits. My name is toast with CET. I play anonymously.

Then why's it matter if it's CET if you don't use a card?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by RS__

Then why's it matter if it's CET if you don't use a card?

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Just curious.

alpax, good analysis!

And yes, I did do the Double STP for 5 straight days. I didn't set foot outdoors once -- which I believe was the longest streak of days I've ever had in my life (except perhaps when I was an infant) indoors.

All I did each day was play Double STP, eat, sleep, browse the internet, talk on the phone, do my radio show (one of the days), and get a massage. Felt kind of weird to tell my family, "Bye! I'll be back in 5 days! I'm going to grind Seven Stars!"

It's true that the Double STP added variance, but because I was playing 5x $0.50, that by itself lowered the variance. It also helped that I ran well and hit 6 royals (the only 6 I've ever had in my life, oddly enough).

Anyway, the Rincon has killed the paytables of that game, so that's that.

You said that the NSUD 99.73% game at Harrah's NO generates zero theoretical. That's incorrect. A host (from another property) told me my theoretical from my play on that game, and it was not only above zero, it was higher than I expected.

However, it has been 4 1/2 months since I've been there, and I'm getting crap offers. Not zero offers, but laughable offers such as $60 freeplay. But there are offers nonetheless.

If one were to attempt Seven Stars today, I would suggest grinding the 5-play $1 machines at NSUD at Harrah's NO or the 5-play $1 machines at Harrah's Lake Tahoe.

But again, you should be shooting for Seven Stars only if interested in the core benefits. If you are looking for freeplay or great comp offers, you are barking up the wrong tree.

Seems like the video poker opportunities at Rincon were fast dwindling even well before your 5 day run (congrats on the successful outcome). For people that want to gamble for the fun of it without seeking club card rewards, the South Point casino at Vegas has the Double STP multiplay 8/5 Bonus for quarters.

I do agree with your beliefs about the 7* efficiency playing multi hand, I just did the 10,000 hand Diamond in a Day analysis for fun and for those who are curious.

There is a known guy in which people talk about on the VPFree message board who grinds hard the multi-play machine you are referring to at Harrah's NO; plays consistently very fast for several hours to a point where it amazes people. He was racking up (now no longer existent) 7* experience points, those experiences offer much greater value than what he was theoretically losing. That is where I heard Bob Dancer (who is well connected with serious video poker players) saying those machines have no theoretical loss value to create mailers. As long as you got something out of your play, it is better than the rumored nothing at all.