Huge Progressive Jackpots for Sequential Royals

A friend just visited Red Rock Casino in Summerlin and told me that there are three progressives running for sequential royals... like the one I hit recently at Caesars (see the photo) which did not have a progressive.

As of Sunday, July 5, the 25-cent sequential royal was paying about $25-thousand while "any royal" still paid $1,000. A $1 sequential royal paid about $48-thousand, and a $2 sequential royal paid either $108-thousand or $128-thousand (my friend couldn't remember exactly).

The pay tables weren't too bad either to the best of his recollection. There were six different games all eligible for the sequential royal jackpots but he just looked at the pays at two games.

He recalls that double-double-bonus had a 9/5 paytable, and Bonus poker had a 7/5 paytable. He thinks Jacks or Better had a 9/5 paytable but he doesn't remember since he just glanced at that game on the $1 bank of machines.

The sequential is paid either low to high or high to low and Red Rock calls it "reversible."

How do you figure the EV on something like this? And do you alter your strategy when royal cards appear in certain positions? For example he was playing Bonus and normally you'd hold A-K off suit but he had the A in the first position (possible sequential) and dropped the K.

Anyone who purposely goes to any casino trying and hoping for a sequential is better off investing in a Greek business. Those are one of those things that come very unexpectedly, and if you happen to be at a progressive or sequential "reversible royals" machine, you thank your lucky stars.

IIRC, there are 120 royal combinations in each suit of which two are sequential. Hence, a 1 in 60 chance for any royal to be sequential. If the royal frequency is around 40K hands then the sequential royal frequency is 40K*60 = 2,400,000 hands. I don't think it is enough to make much difference in strategy.

Thanks Arc. Great info. What about the EV on this? A standard royal is still 4,000 coins.

I'd think that with 3 to a royal and all three being in the correct positions, you'd now dump high pairs and maybe even two pair or possibly trips. Without a games calculator, I can't be certain though. At this point, it's a 1 in 2162 shot at the sequential.

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Originally Posted by jbjb

I'd think that with 3 to a royal and all three being in the correct positions, you'd now dump high pairs and maybe even two pair or possibly trips. Without a games calculator, I can't be certain though. At this point, it's a 1 in 2162 shot at the sequential.

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With any three to the royal I would dump a high pair.

With a dealt straight and three to the royal in the right positions I would go for the royal.

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

With any three to the royal I would dump a high pair.

With a dealt straight and three to the royal in the right positions I would go for the royal.

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Another consideration is the amount the royal pays. Just like in a normal progressive game, as the JP gets higher, strategy changes. This is where having a strategy calculator where you can plug in the value of a sequential royal comes in handy.

I wonder (mathematicians) how that compare to the dealt Royal for 60,000 units on a double pay machine. I believe the double pay games take 7 coins per hand and are usually 3-way.

I don't think there are any strategy adjustments for the sequential royal thing, because it's so rare. Maybe holding 3 to a sequential royal instead of a high pair.

The Double Super Times Pay dealt royal with multiplier ($200k on $17.50 bet) is 1 in 9.6 million.

I almost hit that earlier this year, came the wrong queen away.

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

The Double Super Times Pay dealt royal with multiplier ($200k on $17.50 bet) is 1 in 9.6 million.

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You might be better off playing the $2 single line machine at Red Rock. $10 per play, 1 in 2.4-million instead of 1 in 9.6-million.

And a regular royal still pays $8,000.

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

You might be better off playing the $2 single line machine at Red Rock. $10 per play, 1 in 2.4-million instead of 1 in 9.6-million.

And a regular royal still pays $8,000.

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He's talking about getting a deal multiplier on a dealt royal flush on DSTP. I come up with 1 in 9,746,100

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Originally Posted by jbjb

He's talking about getting a deal multiplier on a dealt royal flush on DSTP. I come up with 1 in 9,746,100

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Right, and I think his odds are better for winning similar big money playing for the sequential on the $2 progressive at Red Rock.

I've seen the $2 sequential royal bank of four machines at Sam's Town get to over $400,000. But I can't believe any of these people who say they "only play when there's a theoretical edge" go after something like that. Most of us have hit sequential royals, but to actually call one "on this machine today" would be more than amazing. And if you made the mistake of changing normal optimal strategy for one that chases such a hand, your bankroll won't last long.

Rob did I just really read that? You, the pro with the special plays advocating optimal strategy only when looking at a monstrous progressive? Something is not right with this picture.

APs generally don't go after such extremely high variance (ie: long-shot) plays, since it takes damn near eternity to get to N0 [where 1 SD = EV] or further.

Granted, if you're going to be playing awful games like 7/5 BP, you may as well play 7/5 BP on the reversible royal machine.

A 10K coin prize for a sequential royal [compared to 800 coin prize for regular royal] adds about 0.3% to the return of the game. I don't know what kind of deviations from regular strategy this game has, nor do I really care, but I'm sure there are several, and I'd bet a lot of them aren't common sense.

On a 25c denom machine, the sequential royal payout would have to be at $50,000 to be "break even", EV wise. With a frequency of 1.7M hands per sequential royal, that's about 7 months of play, 8 hours a day, in order to have an expectation of 1 reversible royal. Playing that amount of time, you'd expect a regular royal once every 5 days. Assuming 8-hour days, 1000 HPH.

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

Rob did I just really read that? You, the pro with the special plays advocating optimal strategy only when looking at a monstrous progressive? Something is not right with this picture.

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My strategy doesn't ever depend on royals to consistently win, and I would never play for a sequential royal or on one of those machines, unless it included my games of choice along with having the best available pay table(s) for those games where I chose to play.

Playing for sequentials is like playing a dollar machine with a worthless pay table and a royal jackpot of $1million. It's a complete waste of time, regardless if it's a theoretical125% or whatever.

Gee Rob how many times have you said you can still win despite the paytable?

Caesars at $1 and $2 offers only 7/5 Bonus with no sequential royal bonus. If you'd play that at Caesars might as well play it at Red Rock.

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Originally Posted by RS__

APs generally don't go after such extremely high variance (ie: long-shot) plays, since it takes damn near eternity to get to N0 [where 1 SD = EV] or further.

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Exactly, or every AP on earth would play Mega-Millions or Powerball when it's +EV. Naturally we don't like the huge variance through, so it's not worth it.

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Originally Posted by Rob.Singer

Playing for sequentials is like playing a dollar machine with a worthless pay table and a royal jackpot of $1million. It's a complete waste of time, regardless if it's a theoretical125% or whatever.

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Sorry, Rob, but the paytables at Red Rock are almost "full pay." As I said, with 7/5 Bonus at $1 and $2 at many casinos, getting the sequential royal at Red Rock is a free bonus.

I can account for three sequential royals. Two came holding 3 cards and the last, which was earlier this year, was while I held a single ace of hearts in the last position. The draw fell 10h, Jh, Qh, Kh exactly in that order.

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

Gee Rob how many times have you said you can still win despite the paytable?

Caesars at $1 and $2 offers only 7/5 Bonus with no sequential royal bonus. If you'd play that at Caesars might as well play it at Red Rock.

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Of course anyone can win on any pay table given the proper strategy. But playing FOR a sequential royal is a waste of time. You didn't get that? Now you'll say "you might as well play at the 7/5 machine that has the sequential bonus than one that doesn't". Certainly, but how many sequential progressive machines have you seen with multiple denominations on them?

The statement about playing at Red Rock vs. Caesars is irrelevant. I've always chosen a casino to play in then played at the best pay table available in that casino for the games I play. Going to RR just to play one of those things isn't my bag and never was. However, it's so nice to see you hinting at finally getting out of that trap CET set for you and going to RR. And I'll bet they even offer casino credit for your ultimate convenience and gaming experience, and straight out of the amazing kindness of their hearts. You know, like the reason behind why banks want THEIR customers to have credit cards?

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Originally Posted by jbjb

I can account for three sequential royals. Two came holding 3 cards and the last, which was earlier this year, was while I held a single ace of hearts in the last position. The draw fell 10h, Jh, Qh, Kh exactly in that order.

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I've also had 3--one of them dealt at the Riverside in their 25th anniversary year in the '90's, on a dollar machine that came with a $25k bonus that I didn't know about until the cash came. Any max play sequential on any denomination 25c & up got a $5k bonus, and if it was dealt it was $25k. Throughout the calendar year.

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Originally Posted by Rob.Singer

Playing for sequentials is like playing a dollar machine with a worthless pay table and a royal jackpot of $1million. It's a complete waste of time, regardless if it's a theoretical125% or whatever.

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It would have a return of ~ 866%, for a 766% advantage. I wouldn't consider that a waste of time, at least for someone with a $1M BR that could easily fund the play.

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Originally Posted by Rob.Singer

I've also had 3--one of them dealt at the Riverside in their 25th anniversary year in the '90's, on a dollar machine that came with a $25k bonus that I didn't know about until the cash came.

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Rob I am happy to hear you had three sequential royals. When I sent you my photo from Caesars you told me you hit only one yourself. Should I post your photo? I love seeing those!!

EDITED to add: Here's the photo you sent me of the sequential royal you hit at the Wynn seven years ago. I am glad you remembered the other two including the one with the sequential jackpot. If you can post photos of those, or send me the photos and I will post.

As you said in your text to me when I hit my sequential: "Keep your picture, you won't ever get another."

And my congratulations to the others who have also hit more than one of these!!

Here's a "strategy" question regarding a sequential royal super jackpot amount.

In any video poker game with the exception of deuces wild you would HOLD a dealt straight flush that is King-high.

In the case of a sequential royal super jackpot amount would you still hold the dealt straight flush IF it was dealt this way:

10, J, Q, K, 9

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

Here's a "strategy" question regarding a sequential royal super jackpot amount.

In any video poker game with the exception of deuces wild you would HOLD a dealt straight flush that is King-high.

In the case of a sequential royal super jackpot amount would you still hold the dealt straight flush IF it was dealt this way:

10, J, Q, K, 9

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Obviously, the amount of the sequential royal is going to dictate whether you do or not.

Alan, at least 3 years ago I posted here about the Riverside sequential, and there has been 3 just as I said. No pics from the 90's though (but I'm still married to the same woman if you get my drift).

Sorry. I thought the text on my phone says you only hit one sequential. Congratulations on hitting three. By the way, I can clearly remember all three of my ex wives.

Edited to add: Sorry Rob, I couldn't find your post from 3 years ago. I searched for the terms that I thought would work -- but no luck. Would you mind finding that post?

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

Here's a "strategy" question regarding a sequential royal super jackpot amount.

In any video poker game with the exception of deuces wild you would HOLD a dealt straight flush that is King-high.

In the case of a sequential royal super jackpot amount would you still hold the dealt straight flush IF it was dealt this way:

10, J, Q, K, 9

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Holding it, the value is $250 (assume $1 denom).

Let's say it's 7/5 BP.

47 cards remain:
1 chances at $X [seq. RF payout...we're gonna solve for X].
7 chances at $35 [flush]
6 chances at $20 [straight], 3 nines and 3 aces
9 chances at $5 [high pair]
Any other hand is impossible.

DrawToRoyal = HoldSF is the formula, so whatever X is, that is the value at which holding the SF is equal to drawing to the seq. RF.

x * (1/47) + 35 * (7/47) + 20 * (6/47) + 5 * (9/47) = 250
:.
x/47 + 245/47 + 120/47 + 45/47 = 250
:.
x/47 = 250 - 245/47 - 120/47 - 45/47
:.
x = 47 * (250 - 245/47 - 120/47 - 45/47)

x = $11,340

So, if the seq. RF exceeds $11,340 [which it should, since I think it starts at $50K], then drawing to the seq. RF is the EV maximized play. Of course, that doesn't account for risk, since drawing to the seq. RF has extremely high variance.

If the seq. RF is at $50K, then the value of drawing to the RF would be the same formula as above, except replace 250 with Y, replace X with 50K, where Y is the EV of drawing. And you get:

50000/47 + 245/47 + 120/47 + 45/47 ~ $1,072.

By throwing away the dealt SF, you are now betting $250, and can either lose $250 (end with nothing), lose $215 (get flush), lose $230 (get straight), win $49750 (get seq. RF), lose $245 (get high pair).

The variance is 832. Given that Kelly Formula is BankRoll * (Edge/Variance) = Wager, and that Wager would be $250, your bankroll requirement to make this play, under full kelly, would be:

BR * (3.28/832) = 250
:.
BR ~ $65,000

RS__ thanks for the work.

For me the answer is yes. I would gladly risk the $500 on the $2 game for a chance at $128,000. Getting four cards in the right position gives you no choice but to go for it.

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

RS__ thanks for the work.

For me the answer is yes. I would gladly risk the $500 on the $2 game for a chance at $128,000. Getting four cards in the right position gives you no choice but to go for it.

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I agree. And that exact situation is going to come up so rarely, the overall variance is going to be low. I can't even remember the last time I was dealt any straight flush. Not drawn to, but dealt!

Question for Rob -- that sequential royal you hit at the Wynn -- I swear I've seen that before, but I don't have an eidetic memory, so I could be wrong. Did you happen to post it here when it happened or anywhere else I may have stumbled across it?

Rob said that royal was at the Wynn seven years ago so it is very possible it was posted elsewhere.

I can't find the other sequential Rob said he posted here from three years ago.

I've posted the sequential from Wynn here before, but neither of my other two have been posted anywhere since I didn't take pictures of them. One was in the early to mid 90's and the other was at least 10-15 years ago.