Great theoretical edges

In another thread there was a claim that there was a player edge of as much as 9% on certain video poker. It could be slots or any machine game, for that matter.

My question: list your great theoretical edges. Yes, you must mention the casino so it can be verified.

I wonder how you would value the "edge" on this particular offer on the U Choose at Rincon:

Show up at the casino and play $500 to score 50 total rewards tier points (I choose on a video poker machine with a 99.17% return) and then get an additional $90 of free play. Not cash -- but free play. What's it worth?

I am not going to include the "show up" offers where I get free play just for showing up.

Only an idiot would mention where they're getting a juicy game whether it's VP or table games. I'd be stupid to tell anyone where I play Mississippi Stud with a dealer flashing 5th street which gives me an over 100% edge.

A dealer flashing cards doesn't count as a player edge over a casino. You're dealing with an inept dealer. Not with an edge provided by a casino game, promotion, etc. that players can take advantage of.

Don't know about table game "edges" but we occasionally see people on various forums pop out of the woodwork with these claims of unrealistic video poker edges. The only person I know of who is an expert at creating these 8,9, even 10% or more vp edges is Jean Scott. She can take a 98.8% game, tack on the usual 1-2% slot club fluff, add in room offers, shows, food, gifts and other comps, then throw in a few % here and a few % there for filling her purse with rolls and fruits from the buffet & getting those oh-so-special smiles from her hosts, and VOILA!....109%!!

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Originally Posted by jbjb

Only an idiot would mention where they're getting a juicy game whether it's VP or table games.

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At least jbjb has some common sense.

You know how the Wizard of Vegas boys crucify anyone who believes in dice control because they can't produce a video of it? Well, that's what I think about anyone who claims there are mega returns on video poker machines and table games without revealing what casino has it.

Alan: Perhaps a better question would be asking everyone about great edges that once existed which have already been squashed by the casinos. You might find some interesting stories there...

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

You know how the Wizard of Vegas boys crucify anyone who believes in dice control because they can't produce a video of it? Well, that's what I think about anyone who claims there are mega returns on video poker machines and table games without revealing what casino has it.

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Unfortunately (for you), big edges on VP/machines aren't just "theoretical" or guesswork. I've given an example or two, but you and/or others said "that's not possible" or some comment about some north or south dakota casino. If you're interested, I might be able to sell you some information, but it wouldn't be cheap. I'll personally (or perhaps have someone else) show you where and how to do it.

But I don't need to reveal the casinos or what to do to prove huge edges are possible:

1) The math shows the huge edges are there.
2) Results.

The math isn't based on some theoretical "IF I can keep the dice on axis" or "IF I have a 1:7 SRR...." kind of math. It's simply my negative EV (usually loss on coin-in) added to my +EV (free-play, promotion, drawing, etc.).

And the results are pretty close to what I expect them to be. Results are not due to some big hand or "fluke", like dealt royals or anything out of the ordinary.

Okay RS__ beat this:

$460 free play requiring no initial real money bet plus $60 food comp. I use it on 8/5 Bonus. My edge beats your edge. It's astronomical in fact.

I won't charge you for the info. I get it once a month at Rincon.

Congratulations, you have an astronomical edge.

Alan, that's the kind of "edge" the amateur is referring to. Only he won't include how much he lost getting the free play etc. because that just doesn't fit his "AP scenario" or talking points.

The rest is taken from his liberal education on the Wizard's forum, as such:

1. Suddenly start a thread claiming you know a play that's astronomically lucrative.
2. Ask a few innocent questions about your "find" to sort of "legitimize it" while cajoling the cast of usual suspects into the conversation. This part is important, in that you can almost FEEL their envious, sweaty palms as well as their racing hearts.
3. Hope the Wizard joins in, thereby sealing the play as "authentic", and the OP as some sort of casino genius AP who will enjoy "hammering that play to death" while it lasts!
4. Throughout this process and in the future, you will forever be thought of as a big winner because of your story-telling and its accompanying slick presentation.

And this is exactly what that phony two-bit BS clown mickeycrimm has done across the internet gambling forums for years, if you're looking for a reference. His method of operation is first to create a haven of 110%+ plays on machines in the no-man's-land of Montana along with claims of winning six figures from them every year. Then he makes up stories from the past on how he drained Nevada casinos as an AP in order to solidify his standing as the "greatest slot pro ever!" among dreamers like RS__ and others who take their forum-posting queues from losers in life like Mickey. Of course, everyone keeps one important fact in the back of their minds when reading his crap: He's a binge-drinking, cigarette smoking alcoholic with rotted out teeth and a big fat gut. So how much different is he, really, from the typical AP? And one thing our friend Mickey never counted on is anyone bothering going to Montana to check out his lies. I did that and only because I was just passing thru. He lives in Moose Drool fantasyland.

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

A dealer flashing cards doesn't count as a player edge over a casino. You're dealing with an inept dealer. Not with an edge provided by a casino game, promotion, etc. that players can take advantage of.

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It doesn't count? Are you off your rocker?

Ok, so you're just asking about things under normal conditions? Then no, I know of no astronomical edges. But as I said, if I were to find any, I sure as hell wouldn't advertise them. Nor should you or anyone else either.

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Originally Posted by Rob.Singer

Alan, that's the kind of "edge" the amateur is referring to. Only he won't include how much he lost getting the free play etc. because that just doesn't fit his "AP scenario" or talking points.

The rest is taken from his liberal education on the Wizard's forum, as such:

1. Suddenly start a thread claiming you know a play that's astronomically lucrative.
2. Ask a few innocent questions about your "find" to sort of "legitimize it" while cajoling the cast of usual suspects into the conversation. This part is important, in that you can almost FEEL their envious, sweaty palms as well as their racing hearts.
3. Hope the Wizard joins in, thereby sealing the play as "authentic", and the OP as some sort of casino genius AP who will enjoy "hammering that play to death" while it lasts!
4. Throughout this process and in the future, you will forever be thought of as a big winner because of your story-telling and its accompanying slick presentation.

And this is exactly what that phony two-bit BS clown mickeycrimm has done across the internet gambling forums for years, if you're looking for a reference. His method of operation is first to create a haven of 110%+ plays on machines in the no-man's-land of Montana along with claims of winning six figures from them every year. Then he makes up stories from the past on how he drained Nevada casinos as an AP in order to solidify his standing as the "greatest slot pro ever!" among dreamers like RS__ and others who take their forum-posting queues from losers in life like Mickey. Of course, everyone keeps one important fact in the back of their minds when reading his crap: He's a binge-drinking, cigarette smoking alcoholic with rotted out teeth and a big fat gut. So how much different is he, really, from the typical AP? And one thing our friend Mickey never counted on is anyone bothering going to Montana to check out his lies. I did that and only because I was just passing thru. He lives in Moose Drool fantasyland.

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I love Robs rants!!

Jbjb I think it's perfectly okay to discuss special casino promotions and offers so others can take advantage of them.

One of the best public offers I took advantage of came from a forum member.

Pauma near Rincon was matching your "status" and your weekly free play -- just show your players card and mailer.

On my way to Rincon I stopped at Pauma and showed them my 7 Stars Card and my mailer. They gave me their top card with all the benefits plus about $400 of free play.

That casino had 9/6 Jacks at $1. Ran my $400 thru once, actually hit quads once, and left -- never returned.

Pauma gave me a shot and in turn they took their shot at getting my business. It was a win-win but Pauma didn't have a rewards program that helped in Vegas.

I can understand great promos and stuff like that, especially if it's advertised to the public. My contention is, that if you find something lucrative that isn't general knowledge, keep it to yourself. Why kill the opportunity?

Say for example I found a DDB game with a 13/6 paytable with all else being the same. Obviously this would be some IGT goof and is highly unlikely, but in this example, I wouldn't say squat to anyone!

In the mid 2000's I stumbled across an 8/5BP machine at Ellis Island during one of my 20 casino RTT trips. It was paying 400 credits not only for four Aces, but also for four 2's thru 10's. I sat and played it on dollars for as long as I could stay awake, which was at least 24 hours (typical AP stuff, right?). I walked with several thousand in profit. When I returned to Nv. the following week the machine's pay table was fixed.

I never told anyone about it before or after until now, and I certainly wasn't going to write an article gloating about it like Dancer does. I had no idea if the casino would come after me, and in the week between I definitely was hoping no one else found out about the mistake.

There are times you should tell others about good plays, such as ones that are out in the open and are not based on mistakes, and there are times you keep your mouth shut.

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Originally Posted by Rob.Singer

In the mid 2000's I stumbled across an 8/5BP machine at Ellis Island during one of my 20 casino RTT trips. It was paying 400 credits not only for four Aces, but also for four 2's thru 10's. I sat and played it on dollars for as long as I could stay awake, which was at least 24 hours (typical AP stuff, right?). I walked with several thousand in profit. When I returned to Nv. the following week the machine's pay table was fixed.

I never told anyone about it before or after until now, and I certainly wasn't going to write an article gloating about it like Dancer does. I had no idea if the casino would come after me, and in the week between I definitely was hoping no one else found out about the mistake.

There are times you should tell others about good plays, such as ones that are out in the open and are not based on mistakes, and there are times you keep your mouth shut.

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Exactly how we feel.

If AP's claim to fame is finding mistakes -- whether by dealers or manufacturers -- then they aren't really "advantage players." They're just lucky to have someone screw up to their benefit.

If AP's claim that vulturing Ultimate X machines with abandoned bonuses is what makes them "advantage players" I hope they have fun walking from casino to casino.

If you ask me a true AP doesn't have to depend on flukes and luck and errors to come out ahead.

My daughter was once tipped a $1,000 chip because of a lucky roll she had at Caesars when a mega high roller was on the table. That was being lucky. Does that make her an AP too?

And I would argue that every time I walk into Rincon, run my free play through the machine once and eat my free meal, it makes me the champion AP of all time.

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

If you ask me a true AP doesn't have to depend on flukes and luck and errors to come out ahead.

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What, get a real job with real benefits? Or actually invent and develop something in the real world?

C'mon Alan, you've been to the Wizard's: Getting fired three months after starting work at a casino, passing the cup, and McWing challenges to see who barfs first.

It always ends the same. Go over there today, and look at the new ads placement? He who laughs last laughs best.

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

...If you ask me a true AP doesn't have to depend on flukes and luck and errors to come out ahead...

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Flukes, luck, or errors have nothing to do with it. It's having the knowledge to know what to do with them is what matters.

There are all types of different AP'ers out there. I'm sure some things you do even qualify.

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

If AP's claim to fame is finding mistakes -- whether by dealers or manufacturers -- then they aren't really "advantage players." They're just lucky to have someone screw up to their benefit.

If AP's claim that vulturing Ultimate X machines with abandoned bonuses is what makes them "advantage players" I hope they have fun walking from casino to casino.

If you ask me a true AP doesn't have to depend on flukes and luck and errors to come out ahead.

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The vast majority of "real" jobs are quite routine. Not really different than what these types of payers are doing. Not sure why you are against one kind of routine and not other kinds. In fact, even finding a consistent advantage, as I did back when I spent my winters in Vegas, still results in a routine to milk that advantage.

I noticed when I hit the Super Bowl proposition middle which I recommended on this site two years ago that Alan's first question was if the linesmakers had "made a mistake," thereby providing me (and readers here) the opportunity.

That struck me as so odd. Sports, and horses, are games of opinion. The house is not always -- or even often -- owners of the best opinion. Different houses have different opinions.

There's a problem in perspective when you decide you're a recreational player and professionals, who are unlike you, are unproductive in some sense. There's also a problem in perspective when one thinks losing as a recreational player should be preferable to winning as an AP (or whatever label you want to use).

If Alan's daughter had known the high roller often tipped the other players, then she'd be an advantage player, not lucky. That's the difference.

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Originally Posted by redietz

There's a problem in perspective when you decide you're a recreational player and professionals, who are unlike you, are unproductive in some sense. There's also a problem in perspective when one thinks losing as a recreational player should be preferable to winning as an AP (or whatever label you want to use).

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A matter of allowing others to set your boundaries; or seeing for yourself where life takes you.

Reminds me of "The Outer Limits: The Sandkings" and "The Matrix". People often wonder are we, and our universe, some sort of experiment of aliens, higher universe.

Well, if you want to accept a myriad of casino industry policies and practices, which already lazily exists replete with excuses for playing and losing even professionally, then join the sandbox. Be a lazy atheist AP on the internet gambling forums to justify your thus assumed self to the sandbox-world in endless bitch-like complaint about the more superstitious players. Wow, the Wizard made twenty millions of dollars with his forum.

On the other hand, if you want to try to define your own world from scratch from one without any limits as it was obviously meant to be - to play with the big boys - then you might expect to shit yourself with hard work and hellacious play from time to time. To understand what atheism really is, and then wait until you find a real god before you accept and pounce on any religion. Yes, it's really so hard to figure out, that you may want to envisage a god or two along the way for inspiration. You own your own failures and successes, and limits. Wow, the Wizard didn't make jack shit. A bunch of fools couldn't tell the difference at a glance.

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Originally Posted by redietz

If Alan's daughter had known the high roller often tipped the other players, then she'd be an advantage player, not lucky. That's the difference.

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No, she'd be a stalker or gold-digger because not many will tip that much if at all at a craps table. Perhaps, she's a tipper too.

Beyond this, let's let others haggle over the nuances of hustling, conning, etc, and edge/advantage out in the open print. Not getting paid to do any of that here.

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Originally Posted by OneHitWonder

A matter of allowing others to set your boundaries; or seeing for yourself where life takes you.

Reminds me of "The Outer Limits: The Sandkings" and "The Matrix". People often wonder are we, and our universe, some sort of experiment of aliens, higher universe.

Well, if you want to accept a myriad of casino industry policies and practices, which already lazily exists replete with excuses for playing and losing even professionally, then join the sandbox. Be a lazy atheist AP on the internet gambling forums to justify your thus assumed self to the sandbox-world in endless bitch-like complaint about the more superstitious players. Wow, the Wizard made twenty millions of dollars with his forum.

On the other hand, if you want to try to define your own world from scratch from one without any limits as it was obviously meant to be - to play with the big boys - then you might expect to shit yourself with hard work and hellacious play from time to time. To understand what atheism really is, and then wait until you find a real god before you accept and pounce on any religion. Yes, it's really so hard to figure out, that you may want to envisage a god or two along the way for inspiration. You own your own failures and successes, and limits. Wow, the Wizard didn't make jack shit. A bunch of fools couldn't tell the difference at a glance.


No, she'd be a stalker or gold-digger because not many will tip that much if at all at a craps table. Perhaps, she's a tipper too.

Beyond this, let's let others haggle over the nuances of hustling, conning, etc, and edge/advantage out in the open print. Not getting paid to do any of that here.

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Or maybe Alan's daughter is just really hot, ergo the 1K tip.

OneHit, I'm not an atheist. That takes commitment, and my only commitment is to non-commitment.

The last few posts were like trying to read the ones on WoV prior to him having to beg his members for money. They make no sense.

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Originally Posted by redietz

My only commitment is to non-commitment.

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I had an applied math professor with the initials FOG... something something Goodman. Everyone called him Fog Goodman.

Anyway, he always told us, "The only rule is that there are no rules." He could derive complicated formulas from scratch.

You don't know what you know until you really ask yourself.

Yes my daughter Marisa is very attractive. Tall, slender, shapely. But she was tipped $1,000 because some high roller made more money on her roll than Rob Singer claims to make in a year of video poker of net wins (which I think is $100,000). Getting tipped is not an advantage play nor does it make her an advantage player.

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Originally Posted by Rob.Singer

The last few posts were like trying to read the ones on WoV prior to him having to beg his members for money. They make no sense.

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Most great persons endured a lot of job changes. But casino stuff is about decades-old prepackaged activities. No advancement or change of any sort.

Casinos take the money; players lose it. Both pretend to improve in their own ways, but it is what it is all along. Whereas, constantly changing rules in the real world, where things rarely stagnate, lead those people on to great discoveries, connections of seemingly different thoughts, and responsibilities.

The first thing I noticed about the Wizard's forum years ago - it's not that old compared to most - was that the so-called experts have no quirky stories. Anyone who's discovered something we've all hear of has 'em. Eg, Einstein originally wanted to call his theory Invariance (instead of Relativity) Theory for various interesting reasons in hindsight.

I tried to engage them on their own levels, with proof at times from post doctorate fellows, but they were all quick to respond with words like troll, gibberish, and spambot. The picture became clearer there as things progressed over the years. A joke. But a very few of the internet crowd eats it up like candy. Same as the (other) scam sites with a leader organization, and followers. On the other hand, I did learn quite a bit from it in my own way.

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Originally Posted by OneHitWonder

I tried to engage them on their own levels, with proof at times from post doctorate fellows, but they were all quick to respond with words like troll, gibberish, and spambot.

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Most of your comments are gibberish. It may simply be a lack of communications skills but it doesn't change the fact that you are unable to communicate whatever it is you are thinking.

Arci--you just need the decoder. But Alan says it's in Rob's locker.

OneHitOfTheBongTooMuch if you ask me.

Speaking of bongs, the car in front of me at the McD's drive-thru is completely hotboxed.

Pretty sure I wouldn't have been tipped $1,000 in the exact same spot as Alan's daughter. She got the tip as a combination of being a young female and being present for some dude's super hot roll.

Yeah, I'd grab a wig -- like the guys with moustaches on ladies' night in the old Miller Lite commercials -- to shoot for those 1K tips, but I don't think they'd be forthcoming.

Dan, it wasnt some dudes super hot roll. It was Alan's daughter's super hot roll that made the high roller a lot of money. Relatively speaking, a $1000 chip to him was probably like a $100 chip to most others. Having said that, in my 25 years of playing craps, I have witnessed a much greater tendency to tip pretty female shooters for their hot rolls than men.

Just being female and getting married is an advantage play. Just ask Alan how much his ex wives are getting for free.

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

Pretty sure I wouldn't have been tipped $1,000 in the exact same spot as Alan's daughter. She got the tip as a combination of being a young female and being present for some dude's super hot roll.

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She rolled the dice. I don't think it mattered that she was young and pretty. I've seen shooters at Caesars tipped a thousand dollars several times by high rollers regardless of what they looked like. I was once tipped $100 but I gave it to the dealers.

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Originally Posted by jbjb

Just being female and getting married is an advantage play. Just ask Alan how much his ex wives are getting for free.

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Not much. All of my exes had their own high paying careers so my alimony has always been low. It's what I wasted during the marriages that hurt.

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

Not much. All of my exes had their own high paying careers so my alimony has always been low. It's what I wasted during the marriages that hurt.

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The fact that they are getting anything from doing nothing makes it an advantage for them. Doesn't have to be a lot.

BTW, getting back on topic, I hit a $600 quad on a multiplier play last night as I was walking back to my table game. Keep your eyes open!

And what about the advantage play I made? Sometimes alimony is cheaper than future years of maintenance and upkeep. :-)

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

And what about the advantage play I made? Sometimes alimony is cheaper than future years of maintenance and upkeep. :-)

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It works both ways ;-)

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Originally Posted by dannyj

Dan, it wasnt some dudes super hot roll. It was Alan's daughter's super hot roll that made the high roller a lot of money. Relatively speaking, a $1000 chip to him was probably like a $100 chip to most others. Having said that, in my 25 years of playing craps, I have witnessed a much greater tendency to tip pretty female shooters for their hot rolls than men.

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One day my friend and I walk up to a BJ table where 1 guy is playing. He says would you mind waiting I have a hot streak going. No prob--we then watch about 4 shoes as the guy just kept winning. Finally, he colors up and throws us each a $500 chip. I go no no no as I slowly drag the chip to my stack.

Hottest streak I ever saw. Table limit was $2,000 so he couldn't increase his bets and he just kept winning $2000 per hand. He took $165,000 in cash, stuffed his pockets , and had a guard walk him out. I made $500 and never played a hand.

That would be a dream situation... to be paid NOT to play. LOL

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Originally Posted by regnis

Arci--you just need the decoder. But Alan says it's in Rob's locker.

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Well, no. And the proof is in the fact that the gambling forums are pretty much dead. Ie, either so complex or so naive as to attract little active membership.

Why are you here? I'm in now and then it to "play" with the Sandkings. Ie, the guys on top of a make-believe world.

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Originally Posted by OneHitWonder

the Sandkings. Ie, the guys on top of a make-believe world.

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I have to wonder if some of the most vocal "experts" on some of the forums (I hesitate to actually name the forums) really play in casinos?

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

I have to wonder if some of the most vocal "experts" on some of the forums (I hesitate to actually name the forums) really play in casinos?

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Dabbled in that years ago as a distraction. Was cheated several times in quick succession early on to "get me to move on". Sued and won, as another distraction, of course. Me, myself, and I against a team of lawyers for the defense. It was gibberish there too until they pleaded the equivalent of "no contest" if front of a judge in civil court.

Wasn't really involved since, except for some of the defunct gambling forums. Remained interested in ways to actually mathematically win because some of that pops up in new pure math and physics theories of convergence of borderline random series. Stuff you won't find in any high school text book for another fifty years. No, I don't mean card counting and sequencing.

The biggest thing I've learned online is that people will do anything but sit and listen awhile, or just ask. Costs nothing. But up comes that wall on both sides when someone challenges the rules a bit. The rich do little for the poor, but the poor want to become rich and support the rich.

OneHit I don't understand what you wrote about being cheated and being in court? Did a casino cheat you and did you sue?

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

I have to wonder if some of the most vocal "experts" on some of the forums (I hesitate to actually name the forums) really play in casinos?

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I say this about the guys at Blackjacktheforum.com.

As for me, I'm in a casino right now and am usually in one every day.

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Originally Posted by jbjb

I'm in a casino right now and am usually in one every day.

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I hope it's a non smoking casino or a non smoking area.

When I played poker every day (going back a couple of years) I enjoyed the non-smoking rules that California and poker rooms have. I'm not a smoker, and I couldn't take the second hand smoke every day.

By the way, I used to play at either The Bicycle or Larry Flynt's Hustler and BOTH had EXCELLENT food served tableside.

Aren't most poker rooms non smoking? They are in my area.

As far as I know all poker rooms are now non smoking. But if you look at historical photos of poker rooms you'll see them smoke-filled and players puffing away.

The best VP play I have had was on the Crystal Serenity. The game was 6/5 BP where the royal, quad aces and 2, 3, 4's were all on a meter. The bonus quads also reset at double their normal payout so on quarters 4 A's reset at $200, bonus quads reset at $100. There was a 100.7% return when all meters were at reset and the meters all moved very quickly, I think the bottom two moved at 1% and the top one moved at like 1/2%. I lost $500 on the play and only hit one 4 OAK--Jacks. My brother sat down with $25 of freeplay for winning trivia and snapped the meter with quad deuces.