Printable View
MGM was the first to cut the pays on Bonus Craps, and now Caesars has followed at its casinos. Article with photos on my website: http://alanbestbuys.com/id139.html
Sam's Town still has the original, higher pays, but it limits the max bets to $25 on the Small and Tall, and only $10 on the All.
Nobody should every make that bet in the first place.
As for the craps lesson article, if forced to play, only bet don't pass. Can't get any easier then that.
Sorry jbjb... I have a big profit on the Bonus Craps bets. And the reason the casinos lowered the pays is that there are many others like me who are winning big on it.
On my last trip, at the Flamingo we hit the ALL once, I hit the Tall twice, and at Bellagio I hit the Tall three times.
Alan, if Sam's Town has the better odds, does that mean all of the Boyd properties have the same odds? I assume so, but I'd like to know. When I'm at Gold Coast, Orleans, or Main Street (probably next week), must I ask someone at the crap tables or would it be posted somewhere? I don't play craps, but inquiring minds want to know. I'd also like to know if Stations' casinos have matched the Boyd odds for these bets.
You're one person. They aren't losing money on the bet overall.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
I have to add about the lesson article. I agree, take it and get the chip, it's an advantage play.
You flatter me, jbjb. Both Caesars and MGM have lowered their payouts on the Bonus Craps bet because of one person: me.
LOL
I don't know if any other Boyd casino has the Bonus Craps bet. Frankly, I am not sure it's even called Bonus Craps at Sam's Town.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
The first time I played it was years ago at Sam's Town and it wasn't called Bonus Craps then and it isn't called that now. I think they simply call it the Small Tall All bet.
Bonus Craps came along several years ago, marketed by Galaxy Gaming. What connection it might have to Sam's Town and Boyd I don't know.
I played at Sam's Town a few months ago and I hit the ALL there with $25 on the small and tall and the maximum $10 on the All. I haven't been back since.
I will ask around and report back. I'm really curious as to whether Stations and Boyd are in lockstep.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan MendelsonI don't know if any other Boyd casino has the Bonus Craps bet. Frankly, I am not sure it's even called Bonus Craps at Sam's Town.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
The first time I played it was years ago at Sam's Town and it wasn't called Bonus Craps then and it isn't called that now. I think they simply call it the Small Tall All bet.
Bonus Craps came along several years ago, marketed by Galaxy Gaming. What connection it might have to Sam's Town and Boyd I don't know.
I played at Sam's Town a few months ago and I hit the ALL there with $25 on the small and tall and the maximum $10 on the All. I haven't been back since.
Red Rock had both Bonus Craps and the Fire Bet when I was there about two years ago. I don't know what they have now.
Red Rock is the Stations casino in Summerlin.
Going to Reno next week. Anyone know if they (dare I mention harrahs) have updated from the fire bet?Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Flamingo replaced the Fire Bet with the Bonus Craps bets, so at first blush I would say the Caesars casinos are moving to Bonus Craps. But... now Caesars Palace has the repeater bets on half of its tables. So it's hard to figure out what they are doing.Quote:
Originally Posted by dannyj
The gossip at Caesars was that the repeater bets would replace ALL of the Bonus Craps tables.
Flamingo, by the way, also has the over/under 7 bet... which no one makes, just like at Caesars Palace. The gossip is someone was "paid off" to make these changes.
I'm not a craps player, but I do enjoy following the moves of the casino industry.
Here is the craps sidebet odds analysis page from WizardOfOdds: https://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/appendix/5/
According to Alan's (very good) article, both MGM and Caesars lowered the odds on the following:
Small: 34:1 ---> 30:1
Tall: 34:1 ---> 30:1
All: 175:1 ---> 150:1
That's pretty significant.
According to WizardofOdds, this changes an already bad house edge of 7.76% for Small/Tall to a staggeringly bad 18.30%!
And it changes the also-bad house edge of 7.47% for All to an even worse 20.61%!
WOW!!!
Yes, we've really come upon a time in casino gambling where the house isn't satisfied with an edge well over 7%.
The All bet on these tables (20.61% house edge) is now one of the very worst bets one can make in Vegas.
Sadly, this is a symptom of a greater problem in Las Vegas nowadays.
They no longer want to "grind to an eventual loss" gamblers.
They want the gamblers they are going to crush almost every time, save for the fluke jackpot or lucky hit.
They are accomplishing this by pushing toward games with "jackpot" type payouts at very poor odds, which is essentially what Small/Tall/All really are.
Casino managers have realized that the average gambler doesn't enter the casino with the hopes of grinding to a small win. He is there for the excitement of the big win.
Therefore, the guy betting All is jumping out of his skin because he just won 150x his bet. He's not lamenting the fact that he should have been paid 175:1 instead.
Also, the guy betting on All clearly doesn't care about mathematics or house edge, or he wouldn't be betting something with an edge greater than 7% in the first place. So if the guy is willing to give up 7% edge to the house in order to chase the dream, he's also willing to give up 20% (and likely not even realize he's doing so!)
Alan, I am very surprised you're making these bets. I realize that they're fun, but I hope you understand that you're giving the house a staggering edge on them (even at the old, better odds), and you're going to get crushed on them in the long run.
Dan the ONLY way to win at craps is by hitting these jackpot bets. Ironically you can win the Small, Tall and even The All without even making a single pass. I know, because I've done it multiple times.
I will not play craps without a Bonus Craps bet available. There is no point playing this negative expectation game without a jackpot potential.
Interesting.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
However, that's not true, especially for someone who plays craps as often as you do (and thus variance smooths out).
While hitting a small/tall/all bet can luckily save a losing craps session, in more cases than not, it ends up being a hefty "tax" on your play which will eat you alive.
Look at it this way:
Say I see you every day, and take $10 from you. The $10 isn't a lot of money, it doesn't affect your lifestyle, and you don't really feel it. Then, once every 2 weeks, after you give me the $10, I say, "Hey Alan, I really appreciate all those tens you keep giving me. Here's $130!"
Part of you may feel like you just came into some nice free money. But when you break it down, you just gave me $10 fourteen times (for a total of $140), to only get $130 back. So it turns out I've made $10 off you anyway, for approximately a 7% gain.
That's basically what was happening to you with the small/tall/all bets.
If you really want to play craps for the fun of possibly winning, at relatively low odds against you, just place odds bets at the maximum allowed. There will be some variance, but at least you will go on some legitimate hot runs without giving up much edge to the house.
Either way, I hope you're not going to play small/tall/all now that the edge is 18-21%.
Also LOL @ Sam's Town restricting Small/Tall to $25 and All to $10.
Talk about a risk-averse operation! So basically they're terrified about losing more than $850 to a player on Small/Tall and $1700 on All.
Hilarious.
They should be rolling out the red carpet for anyone who wants to bet against them with a 7% negative edge.
Tell Sam's Town that I will bankroll the higher bets if they can't afford it.
Dan craps is a negative expectation game. The only way to win is with the various jackpot bets.
Dan why would MGM and Caesars lower the payouts on Bonus Craps if they were raking in so much? Why would Sam's Town limit the bets? Why would smaller casinos such as Fortune in Henderson not offer Bonus Craps at all?
It's because players have been winning.
Next? Bonus Craps might be totally removed. It's already halfway out the door at Caesars Palace.
The reason why Bonus Craps changed the game in favor of the players? YOU ONLY NEED TO HIT EACH NUMBER ONCE. If you played craps you'd understand how important that is.
House edge is house edge. There's no way to explain around that.
If a game is 7% or more positive expectation for the casino, then the casino is going to clean up in the medium and long-run.
The only danger they face is if some whale lays a huge bet on All and hits. For example, if a whale drops $5000 on All, that's $750,000 right there, and it will take awhile to recoup that. But the casino can control that by setting appropriate limits (though not the laughable $10 Sam's Town has!)
Why did they lower the paytables?
Because they realize they could, and still get away with it.
At some point, it was realized that the person chasing jackpots at a 7% house edge will also chase them at a 20% house edge, especially because that person is unlikely to know the house edge on the bet anyway.
It's the same reason Dodger Stadium charges $8.50 for a hot dog. Because they can, and people will pay it.
So are you going to continue to bet these at 18-21% negative expectation?
I hope not.
I understand why people believe personal experience and anecdotes trump statistics -- they prefer to. But the how is what boggles my mind. How do you convince yourself a 20% house edge bet contributes, in fact is essential, to winning money overall? That kind of mental gymnastics is beyond me.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Dan the max bet on the Small Tall All is $100 at MGM and Caesars casinos.
If you're going to start saying "house edge is house edge" then there's nothing for us to talk about.
Bonus Craps is the first bet to come around that gives players a chance to win at craps. I think you should play some craps and then discuss it.
In post 14 above, I got a kick out of Dan. I can just hear Leonard Nimoy's voice saying, "interesting" as he responds to some looney tunes plan from Captain Kirk.
You know, one reason casinos might be increasing the house edge on these bets: If people are willing to bet against a 7% house edge, why not test the limits of human financial masochism?
So far, the two biggest critics of the Bonus Craps bets in this thread are two people who don't play craps.
Let me make this simple for you guys to understand: mathematically, craps is a losing game. Your only chance to come out ahead is with the jackpot bets, and of the jackpot bets, the Bonus Craps Small, Tall, All give you the best chance.
What makes your chances so good are that no number needs to be hit twice. In fact, you don't have to even hit a winning bet on a craps game in order to win the Small, Tall or even the ALL.
The average shooter rolls the dice six times, and all you need to do to win either the Small or Tall is to roll five numbers, and you needn't even bet on those five numbers.
The other advantage that the Bonus Craps bet gives you is leverage: one small bet gives a big payoff replacing the need to make many bets that only have smaller payoffs.
You guys have never played craps at a table when every player at the table has money on the Small, Tall, All bets and the shooter throws ten different numbers? Just ten, when the average shooter throws six.
They had to lower the payouts... too much money was being paid out. I am sure the casinos were sold on the Bonus Craps bet being a big profit add-on and I doubt it has been.
Alan, I'll make this clear one last time. If you REALLY believed you could make money on those bets, You'd give up your business and bet them at TABLE MAX 8 hours a day, 7 days a week. The fact that you don't quit the journalism business and do this proves my point. You CAN'T profit nor make a living off of those bets. I swear you are a shill for Caesars trying to get people to lose money there.
For all rookie and serious gamblers, NEVER make those bets.
Well, jbjb... I have a profit making those bets.
I've hit the ALL at least a dozen times (throwing it myself) and I've hit the ALL a dozen more times when someone else was throwing.
And I'm not alone. It's going to come as a shock to you, I know, but there are people who can win at craps, and who do well with the Bonus Craps bets even if they don't make a lot -- or any -- passes.
The only way these bets could be profitable would be via dice control.
As you have admitted you are a big skeptic of dice control, that seems to take away the only possible edge there.
Dan just what is your experience playing craps both with and without the Bonus Craps bets?
Biloxi Report: Caesars property new lower payouts. MGM property still old payouts but $5 min per bet. Hard Rock has eliminated all bonus bets, too much work was the stated reason. Golden Nugget new lower payouts. Didn't stop at Boyd's property (IP) As of last week.
Checkmate Dan! You don't play craps, so your argument is invalid.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Although admirably it doesn't bother Alan, my brain would feel better if it had a plausible theory of how players in the aggregate could be crushing a 7% sucker side bet. I've noticed sometimes in the casinos, I have trouble getting an internet signal on my phone. Is it possible that at some tables, architectural or atmospheric factors could possibly block out the math?
Math doesn't work inside casinos. Rob has already established that. Casinos, especially CET, are a math-free zone. If you're caught discussing math at a craps table, it's like selling drugs within 300 feet of a school.Quote:
Originally Posted by bocce ballCheckmate Dan! You don't play craps, so your argument is invalid.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Although admirably it doesn't bother Alan, my brain would feel better if it had a plausible theory of how players in the aggregate could be crushing a 7% sucker side bet. I've noticed sometimes in the casinos, I have trouble getting an internet signal on my phone. Is it possible that at some tables, architectural or atmospheric factors could possibly block out the math?
I had a profit with the Fire Bet too. All you need to do is have $5 and make all six passes for $5000. I did that twice. I also hit five numbers at least a dozen times and four numbers at least a dozen times. Those wins offset a lot of losses on the Fire Bet.
Where do your losses really come? They come when you load up on pass line with odds and betting box numbers where you have a lot of money on the table when a Seven shows and wipes you out.
This is why I developed a strategy of betting the "exotics" with minimal exposure on other bets with small payouts.
Last week I went to a $10 table at Bellagio with $200. I left with about $600. I bet pass line $15 with $3 on the come out for any craps and $5 each on Small, Tall, All. I watched and collected as random shooters threw Smalls and Talls with payouts of $155 each time. I threw one Tall and one Small. Do that math, guys.
Yes, the sevens come... but if you get a little lucky these small bets with big payoffs give you a profit.
By the way... three times a Tall or Small was hit without a pass or without even a repeat number. Had you bet odds or come bet with odds you would have been clobbered at this table but betting only the STA yielded profits.
Refigure your math.
Thanks, so you're still playing the bonus bets after the downgrades.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Approximately, you're now being paid 31 for a 1-in-38 occurrence.
I'm not really seeing the appeal, but I'm glad it's working for you.
Alan, I don't like browbeating recreational gamblers who enjoy playing -EV games for fun, as perhaps the entertainment factor is worth the money lost.
But it really makes me sad to see you making 18-21% house edge bets.
I understand Dan. Yeah, it's bad making those bets with a big house edge, But I feel good when they push the chips to me.
Yes, I am still making the bets, and ironically I still have a profit on the Bonus Craps bets even with the downgrade. At the same time I was winning, do you know who was losing? The "smart players" who bet come with odds, and those who bet max odds -- they lost. They lost because numbers were not being repeated. They also lost because they were betting the "smart way" concentrating on 6s and 8s.Quote:
Originally Posted by bocce ballThanks, so you're still playing the bonus bets after the downgrades.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Approximately, you're now being paid 31 for a 1-in-38 occurrence.
I'm not really seeing the appeal, but I'm glad it's working for you.
The funny thing is people don't just throw 6s and 8s and they just don't throw enough repeaters to make those come bets with odds pay. The funny thing is people throw all sorts of numbers -- usually just one time -- and those numbers are just enough to complete the Small or the Tall.
So let's get back to the main point: do you really think the casinos DOWNGRADED the payoffs on the Bonus Craps bets because they were making money on them? No, they downgraded the payoffs because they were not making the money they thought they'd be making on these "high edge bets."
I am not one to claim that I make the best bets when it comes to craps, as I love the 10 and the hard 8 and 10. But I bet those when I was throwing the dice and exercising some degree of control. I actually don't ever bet the fire, the ATS, or any of the other carnival bets. But that doesn't mean that I totally disagree with Alan. Craps is a negative expectation game. Every bet except the odds bet has a house edge, and you will get ground down betting the pass (or don't pass) with odds. So you are looking for a brief period of time when the results are favorable, and if Alan is doing this with small money looking for the big hit on the gimmicks, he is still minimizing his exposure. It ain't for me, but you have to beat the math to win at craps, one way or the other.
Yes, they were making a lot of money on Bonus Craps bets over time.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
They also realized they could make almost 3x that money by downgrading the payouts.
They also realized that people who made the bets at a 7% house edge would probably also make them at a 20% house edge.
You just proved that theory correct.
Let me compare it to video poker.
You know that Aces and Faces game you liked at Rincon, with a 99.26% payout?
Picture the same game, except paying 5 for the full house (instead of 8), 4 for the flush (instead of 5), and 3 for the straight (instead of 4), and 1 for two pair (instead of 2).
That's approximately a 93% game. Would you play a 5/4/3/3/1/1 Aces and Faces game when you're accustomed to 8/5/4/3/2/1?
I doubt it. In fact, I bet you'd mock that machine.
That was equivalent to the Bonus Bet you were placing before.
Now you're placing a bet almost 3 times worse than that.
Exactly.Quote:
Originally Posted by regnis
And as I have said before, craps is a NEGATIVE expectation game. There is no way to win at craps UNLESS you do something different and we players got lucky when someone came along and sold the casinos on Bonus Craps. Bonus Craps allows random shooters who can't even make a pass to roll just five different numbers and collect big. You don't even have to be a DI to do this. You don't even have to be a "good shooter" to do this. In fact, bad shooters who throw horn numbers (craps) are the ones who are more likely to hit the Bonus Craps payoffs.
Dan... for someone who has never played craps, now you're telling us what the casino management knows about Bonus Craps? Really, Dan. And how well are you doing at this year's WSOP?
I wouldn't argue the math but I like betting the bonus bet as well as the firebet. I also love the hard ways. All bad bets, but by default that doesn't mean I will lose. I play recreationally, and if you're not on a hot roll craps can be a grind.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan MendelsonExactly.Quote:
Originally Posted by regnis
And as I have said before, craps is a NEGATIVE expectation game. There is no way to win at craps UNLESS you do something different and we players got lucky when someone came along and sold the casinos on Bonus Craps. Bonus Craps allows random shooters who can't even make a pass to roll just five different numbers and collect big. You don't even have to be a DI to do this. You don't even have to be a "good shooter" to do this. In fact, bad shooters who throw horn numbers (craps) are the ones who are more likely to hit the Bonus Craps payoffs.
Dan... for someone who has never played craps, now you're telling us what the casino management knows about Bonus Craps? Really, Dan. And how well are you doing at this year's WSOP?
This isn't meant as an Alan criticism. It's actually just a comment for those inexperienced players who didn't take a few probability courses and are wondering if the math is real. The math is real. If your goal is to lose X amount of dollars and you stick to that goal, then playing what regnis referred to as carnival bets has no real impact other than to get you off the table faster, so no harm done. But if your idea of gambling is to play X number of hours, then the carnival bets work against you.
The argument that casino managers reduced payouts on the carnival bets because players had been winning is the same argument one could use to explain why video poker payouts have been reduced over the last 25 years, or why comps have been reduced. The players, however, have not been winning.
Why have video poker payouts been reduced? Why have comps been reduced? It's not because the players had casinos at a disadvantage and were winning. It's because the players have become addicted, and the casinos are greedy.
For my non-craps playing friends, please consider this math:
If you hit either the Small or the Tall just once, your payoff will finance your next THIRTY bets on the Small, Tall or ALL.
Regarding players winning: not everyone who plays craps knows to make the Bonus bets. Those that do and play long enough will find that they hit either the Small or the Tall or possibly the ALL at least once in thirty bets. Try it.
Regarding the casinos losing: I don't think they lose on the Bonus bets, but I am positive that they reduced the payoffs on the Bonus bets because they were not winning enough.
Now, unless you have played craps and the bonus bets Mr redietz and Mr Druff, I suggest you get your butts over to a craps table and start taking notes.
Spot on red. And is not just those games. 6:5 bj, 1/3/4 ante bonus and 1/3/6 pair plus TCP, etc. Payoffs are getting reduced on most games and not because players are winning or smarter. In fact, its the opposite.
Perhaps... but let's stick to the Bonus Bet which is a different, unique animal. I don't think any of you even played it?Quote:
Originally Posted by jbjb
Alan,Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan MendelsonPerhaps... but let's stick to the Bonus Bet which is a different, unique animal. I don't think any of you even played it?Quote:
Originally Posted by jbjb
The house edge is the house edge.
This is my new favorite quote.
Look, there is nothing wrong playing high house edge games if that's what you prefer. But suggesting others to make those same bad plays is stupid and poor etiquette. Might as well convince them to play Power Ball and Mega-Millions every drawing also.
If you're concerned with house edge STAY OUT OF CASINOS.
If you want a chance to win at craps play the Bonus Bet otherwise be a precision shooter or don't play.
I think that sums up the house edge discussion.
Alan's a likable guy, so I'm trying to find the nuggets of wisdom in his remarks.
He talks about the importance of actually playing or observing to understand the game. As casinos complicate their table layouts while also reducing staff, dealer errors become more likely, which could be exploitable. To identify and possibly induce opportunities, you need actual experience. So on that point we agree, kind of.
Alan's a likable guy and a respected journalist, and I will also try to find nuggets of wisdom. The best I can do on his "If you're concerned with house edge STAY OUT OF CASINOS," however, is this pearl of advice:Quote:
Originally Posted by bocce ball
If you're NOT concerned with house edge, STAY OUT OF CASINOS.
Quote:
Originally Posted by bocce ball
I'll continue.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
Alan's a likable guy and a respected journalist, and he washes his hands after using the restroom.
Your turn. :)
Alan's a likable guy and a respected journalist and he washes his hands after using the restroom, and he's the only guy I know who can speed date without a speed dating service.Quote:
Originally Posted by bocce ballQuote:
Originally Posted by bocce ball
I'll continue.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
Alan's a likable guy and a respected journalist, and he washes his hands after using the restroom.
Your turn. :)
You win. :DQuote:
Originally Posted by redietz
Layout at Harrahs Reno.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
I will say that the Small/Tall/All bets are good if you want the chance of a big win at craps, without having to bet big.
For example, let's say your bets are $10. You aren't going to win a lot of money betting Pass/Don't Pass if your bet is $10, even if you get lucky.
Even betting on points (aside from 2 and 12) won't get you big money.
But putting $10 on All and it hitting will net you $1500 (or $1700 at the old pay scale), so that's a payout you wouldn't have achieved had you just stuck to regular $10 bets.
If I was in a craps tournament, I would definitely make those bets, as it would be the only way to separate myself from the field.
So am I defending the Small/Tall/All bet?
Certainly not. It's a horrible bet, and has a huge (and now even bigger) house edge.
But the casinos realized that "jackpot chasers" will throw away money in the attempt to hit the big payout, and those people never care about odds or house edge.
That's why the paytables were lowered.
Dan did you happen to ask any managers about why the pay tables were lowered? Did you ask Caesars Palace why the Small, Tall, All bets were removed from half of the tables and replaced with the repeater bets?
BTW, I hit the All twice in three sessions, in addition to two other small or tall wins.
And ask them why blackjack went to 6:5, why the ante bonus in Three Card Poker went from 1/4/5 to 1/3/5, why the Pair Plus in the same game went from 40/30/6/4/1 to 40/25/6/3/1, why VP paytables keep getting lower, I could go on forever....Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Jbjb you could go on forever because that's what you do. I have asked. Who else asked? And who is just giving an opinion and presenting it as fact?
This isn't my opinion. It's a fact. Casinos lower them to make more money, PERIOD! It's not because someone is winning. Quit defending these POS corporations! They are not there for your benefit and they are not your friends. They are there to strip you of your money as fast as possible.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
While most casinos have been lowering pay tables and pays, I am trying to stick to the particulars about Bonus Craps. Too much money was won at Bonus Craps which defeated the expected margins.Quote:
Originally Posted by jbjbThis isn't my opinion. It's a fact. Casinos lower them to make more money, PERIOD! It's not because someone is winning. Quit defending these POS corporations! They are not there for your benefit and they are not your friends. They are there to strip you of your money as fast as possible.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
So far, you and the others have given opinions without (a) playing the game, or (b) asking anyone with any casino about the motivation behind what they did with Bonus Craps. This is why I have little respect for you. You shoot your mouth off too much.
By the way, the creator of the "repeater bets" is now pitching the casinos on yet another change to the layouts: breaking up the field into three separate bets.