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I see that M Resort (extreme southern part of the strip) has an "up to" $500 Loss Rebate for new members but the info simply directs one to go to he club desk for details:
http://www.themresort.com/500-on-us
Does anyone have any experience or knowledge regarding this offer?
FAB
Quote:
Originally Posted by FABismonte
The ACG summary says it's a rebate on "slot losses" that will be rebated in two separate chunks with "slot play." I'm thinking that probably means video poker is out. The first reimbursement offer comes 14 business days after sign-up and initial loss.
I already have a card there, so I'm a no go, but I know some folks who will be interested in signing up even if it's slot play.
FYI, I went there a few days ago specifically for this promotion, and I couldn't do it because I already had an account at Hollywood Tunica.
If it is a rebate payable in slot play at a future date it's similar to what so many other casinos offer. I generally avoid these. I also have an M card now so I wouldn't be eligible.
If you're a local these offers are a "no harm" deal to take.
Hi Guy:Quote:
Originally Posted by Guy Incognito
Thanks for the heads up. I have never signed up for the M Resort card but now I see that Tropicana is a "sister" property and also uses the "Marquee Rewards" card used by M Resorts. Since I have an old Tropicana card, I do not think I am eligible for the promotion -- unfortunately. It would have been a long trek just to be disappointed.
FAB
Your old Trop card has nothing to do with Marquee, just like if you have a card with the Edgewater or Colorado Belle it has nothing to do with a card at the M today. And if you check with the Rewards Club at the M (not with the collection of the clueless Asians at Trop's desk) you'll find that "slots" includes vp. In fact, experienced players knows it always does, unless specifically excluded.
That said, these slot loss rebate programs are a big waste of time. You go in hoping you'll lose, then on the rebate you hope you'll win. How stupid. Only problem is, most offers split the rebate into two or more future visits, with a certain number of days in-between--foiling the best laid plans of out-of-town guests. These geniuses get beat almost every time.
Wise up.
Wrong again, bison breath. Rob, your severe lack of gambling knowledge is really showing here. On a promo like this you play a high variance game, like your game, Rob, Triple Bonus Poker. Or if it's slots play something like a 10X Pay. You have a free chance at hitting something big. If you do, cash out. If you don't hit anything then stop at the $500 loss and take the rebate. It's a total freeroll, Rob. Wise up.Quote:
Originally Posted by Rob.Singer
It's not a free roll. You don't receive cash. You receive free play. Wise up.
Read the invitation, Alan. It says reimbursement up to $500. It doesn't say anything about freeplay. Wise up.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
It does come in free play of two separate increments.
If that's the case then the cost is dependent on the best game you have to run off the freeplay. It's still a very cheap shot at a big hit.Quote:
Originally Posted by jbjb
It's not a cheap shot.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimmIf that's the case then the cost is dependent on the best game you have to run off the freeplay. It's still a very cheap shot at a big hit.Quote:
Originally Posted by jbjb
First of all, to get the $500 of free play you have to lose $500. Then it's a gamble whether or not on the next TWO trips, you will even make back the original $500 you lost.
Frankly, I would use this if I were a local but I would still try to win on my initial $500. Why would you play to lose to get $500 in free play later on two trips that you'll maybe get 99% return on? Sounds stupid.
Let me repost a story I wrote years ago about a Loss Rebate effort my wife and I undertook at the Riviera (when there was a Riviera) so the Board knows why I was interested in the M Resort loss rebate (the M Resort offer is available in July 2017 for new members):
My Riviera Rebate Story
I want to relate my own results (actually my wife’s results) on the Riviera “Up to $1000 Loss Rebate.”
Last weekend, I was in Vegas with my wife. Unlike me, Wife generally hates to do coupon runs and will never cross the street to use a $10 match play. She tells me that she is uncomfortable doing a “hit and run” in exploiting the usual advantage plays by playing match play on a table -- then walking out “win or lose.” That means that if I want to do a promo I usually leave her at the casino we are staying in and go off on my own promo safari.
As many people may know from reading the Las Vegas Advisor magazine and Casino Player, the Riviera is offering an “Up to $1000 Loss Rebate.” The rebate has a few rules and restrictions. For example, no progressives, no video BJ, no video Craps or video Roulette. Significantly, no video poker greater than $1 in denomination. There is also a bunch of machine with white stickers stating not eligible for the promo with no particular rhyme or reason. You also cannot be a local, and must be a new slot club member. When it started you could be a slot member as long as you haven’t played at the Riviera for the last 24 months- but that was changed. Frankly it is a bit of a moving target and I was not sure where the rules stood up to last weekend.
I had already joined the Riviera slot club some five to six years ago. I played and stayed a couple of times, but hadn’t done any play there in four years. I had hoped that I fell off the database radar but was not sure. However, I was sure that my wife had never been to the Riviera. Frankly, although it has been slightly refurbished recently and has good craps and BJ rules, there isn’t a whole lot that would attract us over a typical Las Vegas casino. However, this $1000 rebate certainly got my attention. I figured it was a good chance I was not qualified due to my players club records, so I cajoled my wife into coming along and trying out the promo.
I had previously read about this Riviera offer and the consensus was to try to use high denomination play to win big. But if you lose all, then you get half your money that day in free play then the other half the next month up to a year. This “rebate” money should be used at $1 Video poker to get the money back with little volatility. I agreed with this strategy.
When I arrived at the Riviera with Wife, we looked around and saw that almost all the greater than $1 slots had the stickers saying it was not eligible for the promo. On the Wizard of Odds, a poster said that there was a “African Diamonds” video slots in somewhere on the floor that had an unusual denomination spectrum of up to $1 per unit. That poster said he played 150 coins at the $1 and hit a W-2 G the first spin. Rumor had it that there was a “Kitty Glitter” with that same high denomination availability. As we scouted around, we found a Kitty Glitter but it only went from one cent to a nickel. This was the same denomination band as a whole bunch of video slots we saw of many varieties.
Eventually, we spied the holy grail in the middle of the floor – the mythical “African Diamonds.” It was between two other upright video slot machines. Unfortunately, it was being played by a heavy-set woman in her 60’s. As I casually walked by this temporarily inaccessible forbidden fruit I saw that she had $75 in credits and was using one cent for each line or 15 cents a press. My wife and I figured that she could be there for all of 2012. But we could not kick her off the machine or even casually ask if she wouldn’t mind if stepping aside so I can see if this machine will allow me to bet at the one dollar unit level. So we kept undertaking our reconnaissance mission to see if we could find another high denomination machine.
After identifying three possible machines at the high limit $25 max coin (all others had the ineligible sticker), we walked up to the same African Diamond machine again. Lo and behold -- it was unmanned. We scrambled up the machine like a five year old runs to the gifts piled under the X-Mas tree on Christmas morning. I pressed the denominations button and to my glee saw that went from: 1 cent - 2 cent – 5 cent – 25 cent – 50 cent -- $1 per unit. With 15 lines and up to 10 coins per line, we found the long sought up to $150 per play machine! Looking over my shoulder in fear of an angry old lady demanding I step away from “her machine”, I quickly slipped into the seat and told my wife to sign up for a players card to join the promo while I played a twenty dollar bill to keep it occupied. Lucky for us (as well as any old lady claiming my prize) no one approached. I felt somewhat like Gollum of the Lord of the Rings hoping that no one takes “my precious” ring.
The Las Vegas Advisor had suggested that people note the machine number then ask the slot club (located at the casino cage) it that particular machine was eligible. My wife briefly agonized about this as we feared that if we asked the Riviera about this particular machine they might ask too many questions about our unexpected curiosity about this African Diamonds machine. (Did I previously mention that I was feeling the paranoia of Gollum?) We eventually decided that my wife would ask generally whether any video slots without the “ineligible sticker” would be OK for the promo. When she asked, the answer was “yes.” Then the boothing and wife had the following exchange:
Boothling (while looking at Wife’s ID): “Do you know (fill in husband’s name here)”?
Wife: “Why yes, he is my husband.”
Boothling: “Well he is already on the player’s club system so he cannot do the Rebate offer although you can.”
Wife (fully aware that I have never been in the Riviera in the last four years): “I would expect that he was in the system because he loves playing here all the time.”
Boothing (with no evident sarcasm): “Well, thank him for his patronage.”
Meanwhile I was at the machine playing 30 cents a spin and hit a bonus round – winning a whole $4.00. It made me feel somewhat like getting a royal flush on one coin at the nickel level. Eventually Wife rejoins me and she sticks a $100 bill and I put one in too. Although I up to now I had expected to push the $1 unit at $150 a spin, I had a sudden lack of heart and put it at 50 cents or $75 a spin. After three spins we had little left and decided to put in another three Benjamins. We decided that if we lost a total of $500 here, we would try out luck at the high limit slots. But before we pressed again, my wife said $75 is too much per spin as we only have a handful of spins in this machine. So we reset it for 25 cents a unit for 150 coins or $37.50 per spin.
The very next spin, along with jungle drums playing, three images of the continent of Africa come up –black with gold trim – we hit the bonus! In that bonus round you get 10 free spins after you press the “free spin” button. My wife hits the button and the first free spin yields – “nada” as does the second free spin. But surely the third free spin must mean some significant money, right? Actually the answer is “wrong.” Just as I was losing faith in this illusory “bonus round” a bunch of gorillas appear. After the series of spins we end up winning something over $500. When the machine quiets down, we have $875.50 in credits.
We now have won net $355.50 (I trust you haven’t forgotten my original twenty). Wife is all for going to the high limit and trying out luck with “the other $500”. I have to explain that we actually are in a “loss rebate” promo and not a “free play” promo and so need to lose all $355.50 before we break even. She quickly grasps this concept (at least by now). We decide to cash out and take the profits.
Epilogue: At the strip casino we stayed at, Wife subsequently put $100 into another African Diamonds game and gets zilch.
Thanks for reading.
FAB
Same for me. I've said before that I'm not big on these things. Too many things can go wrong.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan MendelsonIt's not a cheap shot.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimmIf that's the case then the cost is dependent on the best game you have to run off the freeplay. It's still a very cheap shot at a big hit.Quote:
Originally Posted by jbjb
First of all, to get the $500 of free play you have to lose $500. Then it's a gamble whether or not on the next TWO trips, you will even make back the original $500 you lost.
Frankly, I would use this if I were a local but I would still try to win on my initial $500. Why would you play to lose to get $500 in free play later on two trips that you'll maybe get 99% return on? Sounds stupid.
Well, you try to win on the first day. If I remember the Cosmo promo correctly, they initially allowed you to sign up and play Day One. If you won, you could delay your $100 rebate until Day Two or whenever you finally had a losing day. They did veto that pretty quickly.
Cosmo and Casuarina were the only 2 I know of that rebated the loss on the same day.
Only a dumbass drunk like you would split hairs on the details of this rebate nonsense. Playing any hi-variance game--megabucks included, genius--with the initial $500 only makes the money disappear faster, or if you get lucky with at least $500 in winnings then you didn't need the rebate promo in the first place. Where you AP addicts get roped in on these things are obviously by being compelled to return over and over for the rebate in free play after you lose. You think the casinos are stupid? They KNOW AP's can't help themselves but to come back and sit there playing thru their free play, their cash advance limits, and their royals because they know every one of them is a problem gambler.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimmWrong again, bison breath. Rob, your severe lack of gambling knowledge is really showing here. On a promo like this you play a high variance game, like your game, Rob, Triple Bonus Poker. Or if it's slots play something like a 10X Pay. You have a free chance at hitting something big. If you do, cash out. If you don't hit anything then stop at the $500 loss and take the rebate. It's a total freeroll, Rob. Wise up.Quote:
Originally Posted by Rob.Singer
You need to chew on more mint.
This screw-up by "expert mickey" is simply because he has no experience with these things and he can only go by what fabricating liars like "Tuna" convey to him in his dreams.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimmRead the invitation, Alan. It says reimbursement up to $500. It doesn't say anything about freeplay. Wise up.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
He is nowhere near wise.
Rob, I can understand Alan not knowing these things but you pass yourself off as a pro and don't even know how to work a loss rebate. Your vehemence against it is a monument to your stupidity.Quote:
Originally Posted by Rob.SingerThis screw-up by "expert mickey" is simply because he has no experience with these things and he can only go by what fabricating liars like "Tuna" convey to him in his dreams. He is nowhere near wise.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimmRead the invitation, Alan. It says reimbursement up to $500. It doesn't say anything about freeplay. Wise up.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Who cares if its cash or freeplay? With a game like 7/5 Bonus Poker the $500 freeplay would have an expectation of $490. But Alan is right, it comes with variance. If you hit a couple of quads you will probably cash out more than $500. If you don't hit a quad you will probably cash out around $400. But who said you have to play video poker. If you read Fabsimonte's post you seen where the Riviera had disqualified video blackjack from running off freeplay. There's a reason for that. The Riviera was sharp enough to put it in their rules but most casinos aren't.
The classic video poker games have variances ranging from about 20 to about 50. But blackjack has a variance of only 3. There are no longshot hands to hit in blackjack so it's low variance. Even a game that pays even money on blackjack has a 97% return. That would be $485 in expectation on $500 in freeplay. If you bet $1 per hand you will cash out very close to that $485 in expectation, maybe a little ahead, maybe a little behind. And its not that time consuming. I can do 500 hands in about half an hour.
Load $500 into a 3-coin $1 10X PAY machine. If you hit something big that puts you, say, $800 ahead, then cash out and go home. If you don't hit anything big then you will probably make at least a few hundred spins to lose the $500. But all it's costing you is $15.
I will gladly pay any casino anywhere in the United States $15 to make 300 free spins on a 3-coin $1 10X PAY machine. I will do it ten times a day if they will let me. And I will do it everyday.
And you, Rob, can stay ignorant and hard-headed for the rest of your life.
Now, someone needs to check the rules to see if the M has video blackjack disqualified from freeplay.
Are you kidding? It makes all the difference in the world cash or free play.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
I'd go to any casino with a loss rebate in cash. THAT is an advantage play because it's NO risk.
Alan, I've just explained to you the standard AP play on loss rebates. Its a shame you remain as hard headed as Rob.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan MendelsonAre you kidding? It makes all the difference in the world cash or free play. I'd go to any casino with a loss rebate in cash. THAT is an advantage play because it's NO risk.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
Alan, it wasn't all that long ago that you and Rob were putting down that "the player is ahead of the casino at some point in his session 75% of the time" theory. I personally don't think it is near that high but that's beside the point. Your stop win strategy is perfect for a loss rebate promo. If I could do a $1000 loss rebate promo everyday for a year I think I would make at least 100K. You yourself know you don't lose every session. I would simply quit play for the day and refuse the loss rebate every time I got a decent lead on them, say $400 or $500.
[QUOTE=Rob.Singer;49562][QUOTE=mickeycrimm;49528]NO, you need to get off the wacky tobacky. Don't you remember the Revel $100,000 loss rebate promo? Revel execs got tippped off by your hero, at least you talk about him all the time, Mr. Dancer, that they would be bombarded by AP's. He even told them the loss rebate strategy and the AP's would attack the high denom high variance games. By your logic, Rob, Revel execs would have been chomping at the bit to get at those AP's. But that didn't happen, did it? No, they disqualified all the high denom high variance games from the promo. And the promotion fizzled. There was only one reason Revel execs did what they did. They knew they were going to get crushed. AP's everywhere are stilled pissed at Dancer over it.Quote:
Originally Posted by Rob.Singer
Your "standard AP play" is bullshit. You are wishing and hoping that after losing $500 in real money that the "free play" you receive will bring you out of your hole.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimmAlan, I've just explained to you the standard AP play on loss rebates. Its a shame you remain as hard headed as Rob.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan MendelsonAre you kidding? It makes all the difference in the world cash or free play. I'd go to any casino with a loss rebate in cash. THAT is an advantage play because it's NO risk.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
Get real.
This might interest you and everyone else who ever criticized me and Rob about what we said about quitting when ahead. About five or six years ago I interviewed Victor Royer who is an author and casino consultant about the "real statistics" about Las Vegas gamblers. My 75% figure is actually low for the percentage of players who are ahead at some point. Watch the video here:Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KOdC1WWWb0c
That's not what he's saying. I play these differently from mickey, in a conservative sub-optimal fashion similar to what FAB did. This is sub-optimal, as I said. What mickey suggests is optimal.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan MendelsonYour "standard AP play" is bullshit. You are wishing and hoping that after losing $500 in real money that the "free play" you receive will bring you out of your hole.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimmAlan, I've just explained to you the standard AP play on loss rebates. Its a shame you remain as hard headed as Rob.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Get real.
If these were bad plays, casinos would offer them all of the time instead of on initial sign-up.
redietz you've fallen for the casino trap too...
The loss rebates only kick in AFTER you lose your money. Do you understand that? At that point the casinos HAVE your money. Then they are giving you free play that still is more likely to lose AND keeps you in the casino so you can lose even more. It's a bad play just like every other bad play in a casino but this pig has a different shade of lipstick.
Let's get back to basics: you need to play to win. Thinking that the loss rebate is some kind of insurance policy is ridiculous.
Alan, let's get this straight. You advocate quitting when ahead but have never had a winning year gambling. Rob advocates quitting when ahead and requires lugging around a 57K bankroll to pull that off. In addition, neither of you can provide math professionals who agree with either of you regarding importance of win goals. In addition, Rob can't provide any casino professional (not just gamblers) or other video poker author who agrees with him regarding his "systems."Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan MendelsonThis might interest you and everyone else who ever criticized me and Rob about what we said about quitting when ahead. About five or six years ago I interviewed Victor Royer who is an author and casino consultant about the "real statistics" about Las Vegas gamblers. My 75% figure is actually low for the percentage of players who are ahead at some point. Watch the video here:Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KOdC1WWWb0c
And we should listen to either of you why? Because you're both handsome and charming?
Nobody says you have to lose the first day of the promo. I think I've done three of these, and I quit after making about 50% of the amount of the loss rebate twice without ever using the loss rebate. I basically do what FAB did. You seem to be missing the point that if you're ahead, you can cease at any point and take the profits. In fact, this exercise has given me an understanding of the obsession with win goals. If you have a loss rebate, I can see the utility. Unfortunately, when gambling without a loss rebate, the comps and free rooms you accrue don't really count as actual loss rebates.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Let me comment on this, piece by piece:
Why would anyone want to post on a public forum that they have had a winning year gambling? Let's just say I've had my share of success hitting in two years two $100,000 royals with limited play at the $25 denomination, and hitting the ALL at craps at least a dozen times with $25 in each position. You want me to post my profits and for what reason? No... I've never had a profitable year gambling.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
I've quit when ahead and never had a 57K bankroll. I don't think anyone needs a 57K bankroll to quit when ahead.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
What's ironic here, redietz, is that you quit when ahead which is the only reason you have a profit at video poker. At least, you told us you had a profit at video poker. And the ONLY way to have a profit is to quit when you're ahead. (Why are you having trouble with this when you do it yourself?)
Win goals are personal. Win goals will not make you win. Win goals only give you an exit point. You will not find a math professional who says otherwise. You raise a non-issue.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
I can't either, except it makes sense to limit your losses and to quit when ahead. I do not follow his special plays and frankly I don't even understand his various systems.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
Thank you.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
Thank you, you proved the point. You quit when ahead.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietzNobody says you have to lose the first day of the promo. I think I've done three of these, and I quit after making about 50% of the amount of the loss rebate twice without ever using the loss rebate. I basically do what FAB did. You seem to be missing the point that if you're ahead, you can cease at any point and take the profits. In fact, this exercise has given me an understanding of the obsession with win goals. If you have a loss rebate, I can see the utility. Unfortunately, when gambling without a loss rebate, the comps and free rooms you accrue don't really count as actual loss rebates.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
This is how you're supposed to play them.
https://www.888casino.com/blog/casin...dvantage-play/
More here, scroll down.
https://www.888casino.com/blog/apheat/all-apheat-posts/
This is how you're supposed to play them? From your article:
For example, a casino might offer a 5% loss rebate for a loss from $100,000 to $300,000, a 10% loss rebate for a loss from $300,000 to $500,000 and a 15% loss rebate for any losses over $500,000. This type of loss rebate program encourages hit-and-run play. Bet as big as possible on as high-variance/low-edge game as possible. If the player loses big, then he cashes out his rebate and heads to the next casino where he can get a similar deal.
Unfortunately, loss rebates of 5% to 15% do not make you whole.
Sorry, I'm not going to lose $100,000 to get a parting gift of $5,000 in the form of a loss rebate.
If this is the math of APs I'm going to stick with what I'm doing. You guys are crazy.
Alan, you're missing the point. Having a loss rebate completely changes the way you play a game. Having a loss rebate is the primary motivation for me to play a negative expectation game. It completely changes what you do and how you approach it.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan MendelsonThank you, you proved the point. You quit when ahead.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietzNobody says you have to lose the first day of the promo. I think I've done three of these, and I quit after making about 50% of the amount of the loss rebate twice without ever using the loss rebate. I basically do what FAB did. You seem to be missing the point that if you're ahead, you can cease at any point and take the profits. In fact, this exercise has given me an understanding of the obsession with win goals. If you have a loss rebate, I can see the utility. Unfortunately, when gambling without a loss rebate, the comps and free rooms you accrue don't really count as actual loss rebates.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
That's why I said it's a rare opportunity for me to view the world from the perspective of people who play negative expectation games with the idea that win goals are meaningful. Without the loss rebates, however, it makes no sense to play them and no sense to configure win points.
What jb and mickey have said is correct. The way I play these (and FAB played it) is overly conservative and suboptimal. What jb quoted is optimal.
Optimal is losing $100,000 to collect $5,000? That's optimal? And then go on to the next casino to try again?
Stay at it, fellows. I'm done.
But you guys can try to take that to the bank. Sell shares in it too. Good luck.
Let me sum it up for you: loss rebates don't make you win. They reduce the sting of losing. To win you have to win.
First it was 18 yo's, next it was 1 in 6, and now its loss rebates. The dude is living proof that any math challenged person can make it in business in this country
He's more than just "math challenged". This is more like "the earth is flat, gravity doesn't exist, and vaccines cause autism...because when I look outside, the ground is flat not round...balloons rise away from earth, not fall to it, like gravity would suggest...and there are many people on buzzfeed and youtube saying vaccines cause autism".Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
If I were his clients, I'd find someone else. He probably tell them they run they're businesses all wrong too.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
Yeah, to him DI works and loss rebates don't. He's ass backwards.Quote:
Originally Posted by RS__He's more than just "math challenged"...Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
A loss rebate of 100% in cash would work fine. I think the rest of you drank too much AP Kool-aid.
Has anyone yet mentioned Don Johnson, the blackjack high roller (not the Miami Vice actor) who took Atlantic City casinos for $15 million without counting cards? His secret weapon? Loss rebates.
GENERAL BIO: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Don_Johnson_(gambler)
MORE SPECIFIC INFO PERTAINING TO HIS STRATEGIES: https://www.blackjackapprenticeship....son-blackjack/
Good thing he was given cash instead of freeplay because he would have made only 14.8 million. That freeplay is very risky, right Alan?Quote:
Originally Posted by Count Room
I read a fair amount about that. He turned the competing casinos greed against them. I found it incredible that the casino execs would allow greed to undermine the obvious math. Once they saw the bankroll, they went brain dead.
Hard to believe the decision makers would give a thumbs up to this. It just blows my mind. Math deficiencies may not be terribly uncommon among the 1%ers.
What ever happened to casino execs that actually understood anything about gambling or math?.
No. Johnson had more winning hands than losing hands. He didn't win because he got back 20% of his losses.
What kind of new math are you guys using?
So here's the question: if you made $100 bets at a game with a return of 99.9% and the casino gave you $20 on every bet you lose as a loss rebate, would you be a winner?
This isn't that hard to figure out. If you had access to an M loss rebate promo or an old Cosmopolitan loss rebate every day of the week, it's like what Johnson pulled off with his short-term loss rebates. The M and Cosmo loss rebates, however, are much better. You have to play these at any and every opportunity. The concept just isn't that complex.
This means, roughly, that in a game like 9/6 Jacks or Better, you would get a $20 rebate 13 of every 24 hands. You're turning your loss of 1 unit into a loss of .8 units for those 13 out of every 24 hands.
Alan you're missing the point AP's make under their breath all the time: IT'S ALL ABOUT THE PHANTOM BUCKS.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Any gambler knows these loss rebate promos are only meant to lure in people who have big egos and poor gambling habits. I've only been sucked into a meaningful rebate promo one time--I went in 50-50 with a well known LV vp/slots/sports betting "AP" on the famous Revel $100k rebate that mickey likes to claim he knows all about but as usual, all he did was copy & paste reports from the queers and armchair gamblers over on WoV.
We I each put up $50k and only he went to NJ. I taught him my play strategy and he could only play a 5-level 25c thru $5 spread because the $10 & $25 machines were removed for this promo.. I gave him an $8000 minimum win goal, and in the very small chance he lost then for the multiple weeks he had to go in to play off the free play rebate he was to stay in my sister's guest house just outside Philadelphia.
Naturally he won, as I told him he would if he strictly stuck to my strategy. He actually doubted me, which us why I told my sister not to really expect him. After flight/food/car rental/hotel expenses I think we each cleared +$2800 or something like that.
The "collection of famous AP's" whom Dancer secretly alerted Revel would be there to "hammer the hell out of the Revel"? Yes some appeared, but as these fools just couldn't abide by the clearly posted rules and regulations of the program, many of them were walked out like the idiots they proved they truly were. The regs stated "no card pulling", "no team playing", and "no playing on any card but your own". But the jerks broke every rule and they were all sent packing with 5-figure losses and no chance at the rebate. They deserved every bit of it.
Of course, you'll read on crybaby sites like WoV that "they all got cheated and they're gonna sue the Revel". But I talked to the casino manager before the start of this thing, he sent me a copy of the rules BEFORE my "partner" made the trip, and he told me exactly why all the so-called "big shots" from Nv. we're 86'd. This was a typical AP beatdown, that saw nothing left of their bravado other than the feckless whining on WoV.
Interesting story Rob but I don't understand how a partial rebate can make a player whole?
You posted this on FaceBook... This is the problem with your question here... it is completely different type of "rebate" than is questioned in this thread... What you are saying is EVERY LOSING hand, which is different than a total loss...Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Since you have some experience playing video poker you understand that you may play one hand and lose, and play another hand and win that money back...
Your scenario essentially makes it so a high card (no pair) will pay 1 credit rather than nothing... This will turn a 99.54% return to a 110.53% return....
What the OP is asking about is a promo where if you LOSE $500 you get back $500 in some form. Totally different things than the question you are asking.
There are several questions in this thread.
The original question involves LOSING $500 in real cash, and then getting two payments of free play totaling $500.
The second question I asked (here and on Facebook) is about playing a game with a 99.9% return (negative expectation) and getting a loss rebate equal to 20% of each $100 bet. And the question here is different from the original question. Do 20% rebates ever make you whole at a negative expectation game? You will note that on Facebook there responses were divided with about half saying you will lose. Note that one of the responders is the County Treasurer of Riverside County, Calif, who said you would lose. The reason is 20% rebates at negative expectation games are not enough to make you whole and to win you must have more winning hands.
Regarding the high roller in Atlantic City. I read the articles about how he won. And while he did negotiate rebates he actually won because of the specific rules in the BJ he negotiated which sometimes dealers did not follow allowing him a win. It was that he won the hands -- and not the rebates -- which gave him his big win. All the rebates did was keep him in the game longer to help him get those winning hands.
Ah, Rob. That's the reason I visit this site. Wish there were details on your friend's play that week.For instance, how did you arrive at the $8,000 win goal. Thanks.Quote:
Originally Posted by Rob.SingerAlan you're missing the point AP's make under their breath all the time: IT'S ALL ABOUT THE PHANTOM BUCKS.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Any gambler knows these loss rebate promos are only meant to lure in people who have big egos and poor gambling habits. I've only been sucked into a meaningful rebate promo one time--I went in 50-50 with a well known LV vp/slots/sports betting "AP" on the famous Revel $100k rebate that mickey likes to claim he knows all about but as usual, all he did was copy & paste reports from the queers and armchair gamblers over on WoV.
We I each put up $50k and only he went to NJ. I taught him my play strategy and he could only play a 5-level 25c thru $5 spread because the $10 & $25 machines were removed for this promo.. I gave him an $8000 minimum win goal, and in the very small chance he lost then for the multiple weeks he had to go in to play off the free play rebate he was to stay in my sister's guest house just outside Philadelphia.
Naturally he won, as I told him he would if he strictly stuck to my strategy. He actually doubted me, which us why I told my sister not to really expect him. After flight/food/car rental/hotel expenses I think we each cleared +$2800 or something like that.
The "collection of famous AP's" whom Dancer secretly alerted Revel would be there to "hammer the hell out of the Revel"? Yes some appeared, but as these fools just couldn't abide by the clearly posted rules and regulations of the program, many of them were walked out like the idiots they proved they truly were. The regs stated "no card pulling", "no team playing", and "no playing on any card but your own". But the jerks broke every rule and they were all sent packing with 5-figure losses and no chance at the rebate. They deserved every bit of it.
Of course, you'll read on crybaby sites like WoV that "they all got cheated and they're gonna sue the Revel". But I talked to the casino manager before the start of this thing, he sent me a copy of the rules BEFORE my "partner" made the trip, and he told me exactly why all the so-called "big shots" from Nv. we're 86'd. This was a typical AP beatdown, that saw nothing left of their bravado other than the feckless whining on WoV.
Another tall story with no proof. Put up your proof. That's what you tell everyone else to do.Quote:
Originally Posted by Rob.SingerAlan you're missing the point AP's make under their breath all the time: IT'S ALL ABOUT THE PHANTOM BUCKS.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Any gambler knows these loss rebate promos are only meant to lure in people who have big egos and poor gambling habits. I've only been sucked into a meaningful rebate promo one time--I went in 50-50 with a well known LV vp/slots/sports betting "AP" on the famous Revel $100k rebate that mickey likes to claim he knows all about but as usual, all he did was copy & paste reports from the queers and armchair gamblers over on WoV.
We I each put up $50k and only he went to NJ. I taught him my play strategy and he could only play a 5-level 25c thru $5 spread because the $10 & $25 machines were removed for this promo.. I gave him an $8000 minimum win goal, and in the very small chance he lost then for the multiple weeks he had to go in to play off the free play rebate he was to stay in my sister's guest house just outside Philadelphia.
Naturally he won, as I told him he would if he strictly stuck to my strategy. He actually doubted me, which us why I told my sister not to really expect him. After flight/food/car rental/hotel expenses I think we each cleared +$2800 or something like that.
The "collection of famous AP's" whom Dancer secretly alerted Revel would be there to "hammer the hell out of the Revel"? Yes some appeared, but as these fools just couldn't abide by the clearly posted rules and regulations of the program, many of them were walked out like the idiots they proved they truly were. The regs stated "no card pulling", "no team playing", and "no playing on any card but your own". But the jerks broke every rule and they were all sent packing with 5-figure losses and no chance at the rebate. They deserved every bit of it.
Of course, you'll read on crybaby sites like WoV that "they all got cheated and they're gonna sue the Revel". But I talked to the casino manager before the start of this thing, he sent me a copy of the rules BEFORE my "partner" made the trip, and he told me exactly why all the so-called "big shots" from Nv. we're 86'd. This was a typical AP beatdown, that saw nothing left of their bravado other than the feckless whining on WoV.
If I read it right Johnson was getting a 20% loss rebate any day his loss amounted to $500,000 or more. If you bet $100,000 a hand and lose five hands in a row you get $100,000 back. Then you play another five hands for $100,000 and win them all. You broke even on the hands won and lost. You went 5 for 10. But you would be ahead $100,000.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
What a wonderful dream this is... to be able to lose $500,000 and then collect $100,000 as a rebate and then win the next five $100,000 hands in a row!!!!!Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
Sorry, out of my league. I can't afford dreams like this.
I took one of your games, Alan, 7/5 Bonus and brought it up on the software. The screenshot should be somewhere in the post. You'll probably have a hard time discerning the stats so I will explain it to you. You can see FREQUENCY for the royal and it says 64.595820. What does that mean? A 52 card deck is on a 2,598,960 hand cycle. That's the total five-card combinations. If you look over to OCCURS EVERY you will see the royal occurs every 40,234.18 games.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
2598960/64.595820 = 40,234.18
Okay, so look down at the nothing hands. You will see they occur 1,416,099.7 games out of a 2,598,960 hand cycle And if you look over you will see they represent 0.00% of the payback. If you got a 20% rebate for those 1,416,099.7 games it would add 10.8974% to the payback.
1,414,099.7 X 20% = 283,219.94
283,219.94/2,598,960 = 10.8974%
Add that to your 98% game and you are at almost 109%.
Go ahead and post this, picture and all on facebook. Then tell the County Treasurer of Riverside County he didn't make the cut to play in my league.
Gosh... I wish one of you guys would show up at a casino with your bankroll and allow me to video tape and witness how you break the casinos.
Mickey, thanks for the payout table.
So... you are making $100 bets and getting $20 back each time you lose. I'm still not sure how you come out ahead when you are losing $80 with each play on a negative expectation game, and given any reason to believe you will even hit one winning hand?
However, if you do hit a winning hand the REBATE does not help you win, does it?
Using the game you have shown us, REBATES don't make you win. It's hitting the winning hands that make you win. And THIS has been my point all along. REBATES don't make you win. You must hit the winning hands to win.
Alan Mendelson Math question for casino players: if you made $100 bets at a game with a return of 99.9% and the casino gave you $20 on every bet you lose as a loss rebate, would you be a winner?
Jason H. Mendelson Plug it into a payable calculator with a high hand paying .2... Yes you will find you would be a huge winner.
Alan Mendelson You lose $100 and get back $20 each time you lose. That's a net loss of $80.
Jason H. Mendelson Are you talking about a single have it over the lifetime of the game? Be specific if you are going to come up with ridiculous questions
Jason H. Mendelson Single hand
Jason H. Mendelson A single hand or over the lifetime of the game
Alan Mendelson Each time you lose you lose $80. The overall payback on the game is 99.9%
What's the difference if it's a single hand or a million hands?
Jason H. Mendelson Because for each of those losing hands rather than getting nothing you get back 20% of the bet. There are much more losing hands than winning... So if it's 99.9% getting nothing for the losing hands you're now getting money back for losing. I don't think you understand your own question.
Alan Mendelson You bet 100 and when you lose you get back 20. That's a net loss of 80. How does that 20 rebate make you whole?
Jason H. Mendelson Ok... What about when you get .1% cash back? You are talking about a greater amount
Jason H. Mendelson Return goes from 99.54% on Jack's or Better to 110.53%
Jason H. Mendelson Standard 9/6 Jack's
[WOO picture showing 99.54% return]
Jason H. Mendelson Where losing hands pay 20% of the bet (1 coin)
[WOO picture showing 110% return]
Alan Mendelson Instead of losing $100 per loss you lose $80. It's still a negative expectation game.
Jason H. Mendelson You should not gamble... You don't understand how it works
Jason H. Mendelson Call me when you can and I'll explain...
RS__ and everyone else: rebates on losing hands do not make you win.
Give this a moment to sink in.
What makes you win is hitting winners, whether it be at blackjack, video poker, roulette, horse races, etc.
Rebates only return a percentage of your bet.
Does anyone understand this yet?
I actually played a loss rebate that worked exactly like that. It's been a while. But essentially, winning hands didn't go against your "rebate balance", only losing hands did. You could play an hour, win $500 overall, and still get a rebate on top of that. Unfortunately the place was tiny and couldn't take out too much money at a time. We actually had to keep track of how many hands we were losing so we wouldn't get a massive rebate, which would certainly raise some eyebrows to say the least. And yes, Alan, we ended up winning overall.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Alan, sometimes you gotta step back and take a deep breath. I thought you were being facetious regarding the question with $20 back on each $100 losing vp hand. That's why I just spelled out the logistics on 9/6. It's obvious that if you reduce your losses on each losing hand to .8 units instead of 1 unit that you have flipped the game into positive. It's not even close. It's really clear.
Math guys can correct me on this (as I say, I am not a math guy, but I did play on the Penn State grad math department basketball team), but with Jacks or Better, you lose about 13 of each 24 hands. If the game is 99.9%, you are playing 24 hands and therefore putting 24 units into play. With the $20 rebate, you are losing 10.4 units instead of 13 on the losing hands. That is way, way more than needed to turn the game positive. The rebate, in this case, is exactly why it is a positive game.
In case you were having a bad day or had brain fog from an all night menage, it's okay. Everybody gets brain fog once in awhile.
There is no brain fog. It is the winning hands not the rebate.
Let me give you a different scenario.
You have $1000 and you choose to play 9/6 Jacks or Better. You can make 100 $10 bets. You are given a 20% rebate ($2) on each bet you make.
Do you follow me so far?
Okay, good....
You make 100 ten-dollar bets and for some strange reason, the RNG Gods are not with you and you lose every single one of them. BUT YOU HAVE YOUR GENEROUS 20% REBATE so you collect $200 in rebates.
Now... you played 9/6 Jacks with a 20% rebate. What happened?
Yes, the 20% rebate would help you win, alot. In effect, the nothing hands make the payscale because you win a 5th of a bet when you make them. And you can see by the stats that you make a nothing hand 54% of the time. Take a look at the payback percentages for the royal, straight flush, 4 Aces and and Small Quads. It totals to about 6.2%. If you removed those hands from the payscale you would still be close to 103% payback. So in effect you would be at 103% just up though the Generic Quads which has a cycle of just 610 games.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
I know this whole thing is just hypothetical but I sure would like to get a 20% rebate on all losing hands.
If there's any other games you want to see the stats for just let me know. I'll be glad to put them up.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Yes, it would be very nice to get 20% on your losing hands to keep you in the game... but only the winning hands will make you a winner. (By the way, I think you got the point. Rebates alone don't make you win.)Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
It is no longer a negative expectation game when the return is 110.53% ... This means over time you SHOULD return 10% on your money.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Keep in mind, with your question of 20% rebate on EVERY LOSING HAND you get paid a credit!
For every possible "WINNING" hand in Jacks or Better (732,214,439,740), you will then get paid a credit for all the losing hands (928,888,103,360).
This means if you were to play all 1,661,102,543,100 possible hands you would get paid 10.53% MORE than you would if you were not paid on the 928,888,103,360 possible loosing hand combinations...
Yes non of us are ever going to play a trillion and a half hands... So lets lower the sample size...
Say you have a video poker session of 1 hour. In this hour you play 300 hands (because video poker is hard and you need to really really think about EVERY play)... Lets say you have a winning hand every 3 hands (this means there will be 100 winning hands and 200 losing hands)...
Lets say you ran bad, and got mostly even money Jacks or Better hands, 10 Two Pairs, and 7 Three of a kinds, 1 straight, and 1 flush, and 1 full house...
For sake of math we are playing $1 video poker:
WITHOUT REBATE
300 Hands = $1,500 Wagered (150 Total Reward Credits)
200 Losing Hands x $5 = -$1000
80 Jacks or Better x $5 = $400
10 Two Pair x $5 = $100
7 Three of a Kind = $105
1 Straight = $20
1 Flush = $30
1 Full House = $45
This would yield a net loss of -$300
Now WITH a 20% Rebate per losing hand:
300 Hands = $1,500 Wagered (150 Total Reward Credits)
200 Losing Hands x $5 = -$1000 + $200
80 Jacks or Better x $5 = $400
10 Two Pair x $5 = $100
7 Three of a Kind = $105
1 Straight = $20
1 Flush = $30
1 Full House = $45
This would yield a net loss of -$100
Lets say this session is now 5 hours long where we play 1500 hands and get 4 four of a kinds in there...
WITHOUT REBATE:
1500 Hands = $7,500 Wagered (750 Total Reward Credits)
996 Losing Hands x $5 = -$4,980
400 Jacks or Better x $5 = $2000
50 Two Pair x $5 = $500
35 Three of a Kind = $525
5 Straight = $100
5 Flush = $150
5 Full House = $225
4 Four of a Kind = $500
This yields a net loss of -$980
WITH 20% REBATE FOR EACH LOSING HAND
1500 Hands = $7,500 Wagered (750 Total Reward Credits)
996 Losing Hands x $5 = -$4,980 + $996 Rebate
400 Jacks or Better x $5 = $2000
50 Two Pair x $5 = $500
35 Three of a Kind = $525
5 Straight = $100
5 Flush = $150
5 Full House = $225
4 Four of a Kind = $500
This yields a NET WIN of $16
These are very conservative numbers as really in the longer session there should be more straights, flushes, and full houses than 5 each. There should be more than 10 two pairs per hour so these are very conservative numbers...
Fun fact:
All free play is effectively a 100% loss rebate.
Suppose a MGM sends you a mailer for $100 in free play. The way theirs works is that you have make an initial bet and are "rebated" it, win or lose, when the hand is over. Using quarter VP betting $1.25, if you lose, you get the $1.25 back. If you win, say a 45 credit ($11.25) full house, you get that amount PLUS your $1.25 back.
I'll bet some of you guys never knew that free play was a loss rebate.
slapinfunk... without any winning hands and only a loss rebate, what would happen to your bankroll?
how much of the "win" comes from the rebate?
Is the win from the rebate enough to offset what you lost from the losing hands?
when you win, do you win from the winning hands or do you win from the rebate?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
It is all in the post...
1500 Hands = $7,500 Wagered (750 Total Reward Credits)
996 Losing Hands x $5 = -$4,980 + $996 Rebate
400 Jacks or Better x $5 = $2000
50 Two Pair x $5 = $500
35 Three of a Kind = $525
5 Straight = $100
5 Flush = $150
5 Full House = $225
4 Four of a Kind = $500
This yields a NET WIN of $16
Would you play video poker at all if you really lost every single hand?
the point is, you should play for or depend on loss rebates. just as you shouldn't play for comps. If you are depending on loss rebates to bail you out you are in trouble. so I agree with you when you say: "would you play video poker at all if you really lost every single hand?"
you have to play to win. those loss rebates are there to soften the blows when you lose.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Agree completely...
However, for sake of conversation, with the scenario you posted, you would have to be pretty special to not take the offer you presented...
I have always told you I am not into much bonus whoring... I wouldn't drive 2 hours to collect $200 of free play, but I would drive 35 minutes to collect $200 of free play. I won't drive the same 35 minutes for $25 of free play.
There are things I will take advantage of... In real life offers to purchase $100 in gift cards to a restaurant I frequent for an extra $25 gift card... Thats a 25% bonus to pay in advance. Sure I'll take it. Some grocery stores do the same thing.
You can look to squeeze every bit of AP out of real life... Buying bottled water is the biggest sucker bet there is. You can save a grip of money just getting a 1 gallon jug and filling it up for $0.30 with the same filtered water that s in bottles...
Actually, it's the combination of winning and losing hands that would make you a winner. At almost 11% the losing hands would represent the fourth biggest contributor to the payback percentage, after high pairs, two pairs and 3-of-a-kinds.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
PS: Redietz, it's gamblingtalk.freeforums.net. They are requesting that Rob join the forum.
I don't include losing hands as contributing to wins. That's like the "Phantom bucks" Rob Singer talks about.
If you want to include them in how you play go ahead.
We both play $1 8/5 BP for just two hands. I get a 20% loss rebate and you get nothing. The first hand we both get two pair for a 5 credit profit. The next hands we both lose so we both lose 5 credits. Here you'll just break even. I'll get 20% back of that loss for a 1 credit or $1 profit. Who won?Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Even if we lost both hands, I still come out ahead of you by $2. Like any other advantage play, you won't always win.
The "losing hands" pay a 5th of a bet. Since you get a return on them they are included in the payscale.
The longer we play, the more likely I'll get ahead.Quote:
Originally Posted by jbjbWe both play $1 8/5 BP for just two hands. I get a 20% loss rebate and you get nothing. The first hand we both get two pair for a 5 credit profit. The next hands we both lose so we both lose 5 credits. Here you'll just break even. I'll get 20% back of that loss for a 1 credit or $1 profit. Who won?Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Even if we lost both hands, I still come out ahead of you by $2. Like any other advantage play, you won't always win.
If I get even money or better on the win and only lose 80% on the loss that is certainly better than playing without the 20% rebate. Yes--you still need to win to show a profit. But you have that much better of a chance as your losses are reduced. This seems pretty basic to me.