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OK, look in your crystal ball: what will Las Vegas be like 20 - 25 years from now?
Will the sea change from gaming to non-gaming emphasis continue, or ebb?
Any new big players, locations, or new games?
Who will be the new Las Vegas mogul?
The old girl has a knack for reinventing herself, that's for sure.
In 10-15 years, the new 'hot' part of the strip should be the north end between spring mountain/sand (fashion show mall) and the sahara. That has been the plan for a while and it is slow in developing. With several projects underway and the convention center expansion should get the ball rolling. They HAVE to take down that big blue monstrosity of a failure, and MGM at some point will need to put Circus Circus to sleep and built something new and modern on that site.
Once the northern strip is developed, complete with safe pedestrian walkways and overpasses, the next part of the strip that I think will see transformation, is Mid-strip, the east side, between Flamingo Road and Venetian/Pallaza. All those years neglected evil empire properties, Consisting of Cromwell, Flamingo, Linq, Harrah's and Casino Royale will go, in favor of some big new project, either financed by the empire if they ever pull themselves from bankcrupcy and start spending, or perhaps someone else, if the empire is forced to sell off some properties. There is the argument that the Linq was recently "redone", but it was sort of a "Lipstick on a pig" type deal rather than a complete renovation.
New moguls? Obviously Wynn and Adelson will be gone. I don't know that you will see the likes of those kind of personalities again. More likely faceless corporations.
I don't think the non-gaming trend will continue...especially the high end retail stuff. Too many high end retail shops on the strip now and Shopping really isn't what the strip and Vegas are about. When you think Vegas, you shouldn't think high end retail. That is not what is going to make Vegas "special". I think they will get away from that. Night clubs and higher end restaurants will probably remain, but I think we will see some emphasis come back to gaming. In the end, that is what Vegas is about!
Gaming: More bells and whistles and lower payouts on machines. Fewer of the traditional table games (BJ, Craps, Roulette) in favor of more specialty games with higher house edge. Of the traditional games that remain, the lower limit games with be replaced by electronic video versions. Only higher limit BJ, Craps and Roulette will be live dealers, except for the iconic places downtown. They will continue to offer lower limit live table games, pretty much as they do now. Downtown is slow to change. The draw of downtown is it's iconicness. (<-lol)
At some point they have to extend the monorail to both the airport and downtown, so it is actually useful. The Deuce has outlive any "charm" that it ever had. The only reason that the monorail didn't connect downtown to airport when it was built was strong resistance from the Taxi, and limo and shuttle van industry. But I don't think that industry has the "pull" they used to. They couldn't stop uber/lyft from coming in.
In 10-15 years online gaming will be so persuasive in the USA that many of the ballrooms of the big casinos will become rooms for holding servers. The economy of scale will have been destroyed so casinos will offer less in entertainment. Meanwhile the online profits will soar, employee head counts will tumble, and many of the abandoned casino hotels will be converted into condos and apartments.
In 15 years everyone who loved Vegas will look back and say Adelson was right. Online gaming should never have been made legal.
Interesting thread topic.
I think we need to look to recent trends to see where Las Vegas will be in 2040.
Here's my prediction:
- More conventions / events. Las Vegas has always been a big convention destination, but it seems to bee growing every real. But even more notable are the events such as EDC which seem to seemingly take over the city. Expect many more of these type of events over the coming years, including many like EDC which will be yearly.
- Death of the small -EV games. This is already happening. Vegas wants to cater to the recreational gambler, not the grizzled gambling veteran who, while still playing -EV games, isn't generating very much revenue for them on average. They want more of a sure thing. This means degraded blackjack rules, degraded video poker tables, more "carnival games", more sucker side bets, etc.
- Increase of entertainment and dining options. I'm talking about nightclubs, shows, concerts, fine dining, etc. Vegas is becoming more about non-gambling activities than gambling activities, and I don't see them changing that formula if it's working for them.
- Decrease of number of hosts. Hosts are an antiquated concept, and I predict that they will be heavily decreased in number, and only used for the high rollers who need special handling. Programs such as Total Rewards and MLife are already replacing hosts to some degree, and hosts have less power at these properties than ever before. It will soon be all about the ADT and AMT, and cold, hard formulas will determine what you can and can't get. Some properties are already going with the "casino services" model, where you don't get access to a host unless really needed, and a generic casino services employees handles most requests and mundane tasks.
I am not sure I agree regarding the north strip becoming the "happening" place. I know they are attempting to build a major property there, but even if that goes through, there's still a long way to go in order to up-end the dominance that center strip currently has.
The strip rose to prominence because downtown had various weaknesses. It was seedy, it didn't cater well to high-end clientele, it didn't offer much to the non-gambler, etc. The center strip does not have these glaring weaknesses, so I don't see a few new properties moving all the action north.
Alan, the online thing will be a non-factor. For the most part, people enjoy gambling live instead of online. It's just a different experience. In addition, I am not sure if online casino gambling will ever become legalized at a federal level.
Dan I honestly think the younger generation will want to do nothing but online gambling. They grew up doing everything with keyboards. It's natural for them.
Also I think this keyboard generation is afraid of face to face contact so live casino games will not be their choice.
I don't know if neuralink types of tech will be available in 25 years or not, so let's skip that, as it should revolutionize gambling, gaming, and addiction in general.
From the basic viewpoint of addiction research, one would expect machine play, which is pretty efficient at engendering addiction, to continue to expand. So more floor space dedicated to machines, less to table games. Also more multi-play machines that play faster. The machine play is getting done what the companies want, so maybe the only augmentation of that is the use of more pod-like settings in high limit areas. People would go in, sit down in a pod, and be more insulated/isolated from outside stimuli. Maybe tech so the fingers of the left hand can choose various of the multi hands and the right hand's fingers can choose card holds, like playing a piano.
I'm hoping for a return of lounges. I would think in 25 years, we could have performers/bands leasing hologram performances. The clubs or lounges that invest in the tech will pack them in, at least for the first couple of years. A lot of our iconic performers are near the end of the line, so yes, I'd go see Cher or Tom Jones holograms performing in lounges.
On second thought... in 25 years the towers at the major casino hotels will all be converted into retirement condos.
Dan wants to look at recent trends, but Alan scores a direct hit here. Trending worldwide for the past five or more years is doing as much as possible online and without having to get out of your pj's. The young and younger people need keyboards to live their lives, and if you're not seeing that then you live with mickey. So once online casino action becomes legal across the US like it is in much of the world, comparatively very few yuppies and hipsters will even think about the hassle of air or car travel just to go to a brick & mortar casino.
The north end of the Strip getting hot? What are you smoking? Nuff said.
Fifty years from now for those of you who'll see it, LV will go back to being dust. In fact, even as we speak it's one major casino terror attack away from disaster.
I remember after 9-Eleven flying into Vegas on a Friday night after work. (I was with KCAL then doing the business news.) A Caesars limo driver met me at Southwest. There were maybe 20% of the seats filled. The Vegas airport was empty. There was little traffic to Caesars. We pulled up to the front entry -- it was empty. I said to the driver "my God where is everybody?" He answered "they're just coming." Inside the Palace dome there was one craps game going with three players.
That's how fragile the Vegas economy is.
I predict:
Prostitution in both Las Vegas and Clark county will wane as many casinos will offer patrons the use of a robotic sex doll.
Sex will become even more front and center; Las Vegas will be an anything goes hook up locale, with wild, bacchanalian events throughout the town.
Somebody somewhere will come up with a new casino game that will be incredibly popular.
The Las Vegas Raiders will prove to be a huge hit, with both a strong local fan base and surprisingly strong attendance by fans of their opponents who travel to Sin City to catch their team play the Raiders.
Lake Mead will dry up, causing massive water shortages.
Precisely. 9-11 happened 2500 miles away and LV was more confused than it's ever been for quite a while. Imagine what would occur if some suicide bomber let's it rip in a pit on the Strip. And with all the politically correct horseshit going on these days where Muslim-looking individuals are left alone even if they look or are carrying something suspicious for fear that it'll "offend" them or security will be regarded as "intolerant or racist", a very bad day for the Vegas economy isn't that far fetched any longer.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Bad stuff can always happen.
How difficult would it be for a group of several terrorists to smuggle gasoline into their rooms at a casino and start several fires simultaneously in a casino tower in the middle of the night, trapping most sleeping guests in the ensuing conflagration?
A few rounds lobbed from a mortar onto the heart of the strip would cause a bit of a stir as well.
I don't think the Raiders in Vegas will be a huge success. I don't think there is a strong local fan base. Las Vegas is unlike any metropolitan area I have seen with a huge transient population. In no other major city have I see so many people living in these temporary/weekly type place....the Siegle Suites type places and the weekly "motels". A huge chunk of the Vegas population is literally a couple days from actual homelessness (of which there is also a large population) at any given time.Quote:
Originally Posted by MisterV
Vegas may be a large metropolitan city by population numbers, but a smaller percent have that kind of disposable income. In addition Vegas has a million and a half to two million people in the immediate area, but then it just stops. There are limited suburbs and outlying areas, unlike other cities, that have suburban reach for 50-100 miles. When I was in Philadelphia, most people attending Eaggles games were not from Philadelphia...they were from suburban counties in Pa, NJ and Delaware, sometimes up to 2 hours outside the city. Vegas doesn't have that reach. An hour outside the city isn't suburban...it's cacti, dirt and rocks.
I think the Raiders will do well for the first couple years, just from the new and novelty of it. Raider loyalist from Oakland will initially make the trip for a couple years, but that will die out too. Within 5 years the Raiders will be like the Arizona Cardinals were for their first 25 years, relying on the visiting teams supporters for half their attendance. It wouldn't surprise me if the Raiders were gone within 15 years, quite possible, even back to Oakland.
Similarly, I don't think Hockey will succeed here in Vegas for some of the same reasons. The model for hockey is Phoenix. Southwest, desert climate cities aren't exactly a hotbed for ice hockey, with large Mexican and Latino populations. Ice hockey isn't very popular in Mexico. :rolleyes: Phoenix has been last in NHL attendance for several years.
I understand your points, KJ, but perhaps the "wild card" is this: how many folks from Calif. will make it a point to travel to Las Vegas in order to both catch a game and party / gamble?
Stated differently, now many will use game day as an excuse to spend the weekend in Las Vegas, which is something they'd want to do anyway?
Obviously the people who put the deal together have researched the issue as best they can, and are satisfied that there's is a valid business model.
25 years from now? Get ready for Future Shock. Do you really think today's keyboard kids will have any interest in football or any professional sports in 25 years?
I predict in 25 years all stadiums will become flea markets for computer peripherals.
Vegas by itself cannot support the Raiders. It's the out of towners and the casinos buying tickets for its guests that will fill the seats.
Indeed.
It's like a Cirque show, but with shoulder pads and concussions.
The Raiders will be a massive failure in LV. First of all, after the initial first year infatuation wears off, there's not nearly enuf of a fan base to come close to filling the stadium. There's not enough yuppie jobs where that many people can even afford to go, and relying on a bunch of California flakes to float into town just because there's a game is bad business. And with the majority of LV residents being of the low life, foreigner, minority, slug type--and with casino gambling still being a far bigger draw than some NFL franchise--DOOM is the only word for this mistake.
Don't forget higher taxes for locals to pay for the stadium.
Quote:
Originally Posted by MisterV
Like I said you are a complete lunatic
Don’t you think it will be a ghost town because of climate change ?Quote:
Originally Posted by MisterV
The day I dig up 5 year old posts to attempt to discredit an anonymous poster that I don't know IRL is the day I put a shotgun in my mouth and pull the trigger.Quote:
Originally Posted by SeedvalueDon’t you think it will be a ghost town because of climate change ?Quote:
Originally Posted by MisterV
Given all singles coming to sin city hoping to find love (or an approximation thereof) I am surprised there aren't any speed dating bars, where you sit for a minute of two with each person, chat, and move on if no connection.
So you find someone you're interested in then you have to go home!?Quote:
Originally Posted by MisterV
IMO gaming just has too much competition. As long as local casinos keep expanding they'll suck up any extra business. People don't particularly like the nickel and diming of Vegas unless you're quite wealthy. A lot of people are there for events.
Quote:
Originally Posted by accountinquestionSo you find someone you're interested in then you have to go home!?Quote:
Originally Posted by MisterV
IMO gaming just has too much competition. As long as local casinos keep expanding they'll suck up any extra business. People don't particularly like the nickel and diming of Vegas unless you're quite wealthy. A lot of people are there for events.
Everyone loves Vegas that goes. Most people are repeat visitors. Spoken by someone who hates rich successful people. Envy is the worst of all sins
AIQ believes Vegas will disappear because of climate change. Lol
Quote:
Originally Posted by jdaewooThe day I dig up 5 year old posts to attempt to discredit an anonymous poster that I don't know IRL is the day I put a shotgun in my mouth and pull the trigger.Quote:
Originally Posted by SeedvalueDon’t you think it will be a ghost town because of climate change ?Quote:
Originally Posted by MisterV
You should do that now for thinking about it
Define "interested in."Quote:
Originally Posted by accountinquestion
I suspect most people, while ultimately perhaps looking for love, will settle for and are primarily seeking out casual sex in sin city.
Wham, bam, thank you ma'am gotta catch my plane back home...
"Sin City." after all.
Don't need speed dating for that though. There are apps that work as well and you don't need to show up dressed up just to see if it'll work out. Casual speed dating sex will have few women and the majority will be prostitutes.Quote:
Originally Posted by MisterVDefine "interested in."Quote:
Originally Posted by accountinquestion
I suspect most people, while ultimately perhaps looking for love, will settle for and are primarily seeking out casual sex in sin city.
Wham, bam, thank you ma'am gotta catch my plane back home...
"Sin City." after all.