kentucky derby

Even non-horseplayers usually have some interest in the Derby, so I thought I'd throw this out there. I am rarely a big fan of the Derby itself. Rather, the rest of the races over the two days (starting on Friday) offer the best value of the year along with the Breeders Cup.

The multi race bets (pick 3,4,5, or 6) and trifectas and superfectas offer huge payoffs as the handle is high and the amateurs over-bet the favorites.

Anyway, as I said, I have no love for the race itself, but I will always look for value. I think seven or eight horses have a chance. At this time, I am interested in the 5 horse, Audible, listed at 8-1. I will take no less than 6-1.

There is rain in the forecast, but I don't think it will be sloppy. I actually prefer slop as it makes breeding the foremost factor in handicapping. We will see.

Thanks for the thread...

I bet the KD because ofall the races this has the most dead money. I mean the most money pouring in by people who dont know what they are doing. And since horse racing is not a bet agasint the house, but rather a bet against the other bettors.....there is alot of value if you can handicapp it right...because the dead money gets distributed to the winners.

Justify has had 3 races as a 3 year old ..thats it. Against 14 horses TOTAL/ has raced only on a single track. And I am supposed to be a backer of this? not me/ Only 1 graded race. hasnt raced as a 2 year old. Is very green....evenif he has baffert as a trainer. I am going to totally throw him out of the top 3. THere is alot of speed so his style wont be unique.

Now pletcher has 4 horses...one of them is speed...Magnum Moon ran as a speed horse in the Ark derby........he doesnt need the lead.....but will Pletcher sacrifice him in order to burn out the fave..... Its possible He would be doing everyone a favor...including his other horses.

I am betting dollar trifecta part wheels with something like 6 horses/10 horses/10 horses...thats around 432 dollars. or I may bet 6horses/12 horses/12 horses for 50 cents at 330 per ticket

Once I haver a better view of the weather i will post my picks tomorrow...then i will be away from the computer for a few days....and will check in how people here did on monday or sun night.

Justify is being asked to do something that hasn't been done (i think)--win the Derby without racing as a 2 year old. While he has looked unbeatable, I agree with everything you have said. Plus, he won't offer any value.

I was not going to use Magnum Moon, or if I did just underneath, but he moves way up if it is sloppy.

I don't know what to do with Mendelson. His win on dirt in Dubai was impressive, but anyone that went to the lead was winning that day. I think he is caught up in the speed and not good enough to clear.

As far as your pick......I read an article that eliminated horses one by one based on the history of KD winners

Such as

the past 7 derby winners entered the race off of a victory, and41 of 42 had their last prep race finishing in the top 3 or within 4 lenghts.
each of the last 6 winners and 16 of the last 20 ran the last 3/8ths of the final race in less than 38 seconds
horses exiting the UAE derby are 0-13
no blue grass stakes winner has won the derby since 1991. the last horse to compete in the Blue ggrass and win was 2007
over the last 26 years since beyers were used....no winner had a beyer under 95 in its past

well when all was said and done...after eliminating Justufy for not racing as a 2 year old......and a few other horses for not winning as a 2 year old.... plus all the eliminations above ad others i didnt mention

2 horses remained

Audible and Bolt D'oro

those are 2 of the 6 I originally have in my analysis..so I dont need to be convinced.

the sire of "Bolt" helped to make me 10k in a Belmont over 15 years ago........when War Emblam stumbled and Sarava a 70-1 headlined the trifect with magdalia d'oro underneath. I am using that horse because of the past, I am iffy about coming in first. but I need to include it for old time sake.

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Originally Posted by regnis

Justify is being asked to do something that hasn't been done (i think)--win the Derby without racing as a 2 year old. While he has looked unbeatable, I agree with everything you have said. Plus, he won't offer any value.

I was not going to use Magnum Moon, or if I did just underneath, but he moves way up if it is sloppy.

I don't know what to do with Mendelson. His win on dirt in Dubai was impressive, but anyone that went to the lead was winning that day. I think he is caught up in the speed and not good enough to clear.

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In a race like this I think one has to make an educated guess on how it will unfold. wILL the speed die or will it prevail. And then you can make an educated guess on a winner, I do know that deep closers dont do well in the KD...although it looks good on paper.

In the end something that you doont really factor in on most other races.....the KD can be a crap shoot like a dog race. If you ever watched one, you can handicapp all day..but when the race starts and the dogs hit the first turn, usually 2-3 dogs get wiped out as the run into eachother. Well when a 1000 lb animal bumps into another 1000 lb animal...it effects the chances of winning or even showing alot. And in the derby there are always 3 or so horses that get significantly bumped.
Its tough to have your analysis get shot to hell over a bump just past the gate.

Mendelson is a tough horse to use based on the past performance of UAE racers. I mean one year its going to happen. But the horse flew in on monday, and was quarunteened for 2 days as is normal practice, and then arrive at churchill yesterday.I think. He has won on multiple tracks which is a positive. His time earned a beyer of 106. But I think speed with not prevail. but that is a total guess. With all the speed available....someone has to press the pace and speed things up...at least I hope so

War Emblem and Sarava both now living at Old Friends in Lexington, Kentucky. If you are not aware of it, it is a 501 (c) (3) retirement home for old race horses. I visit twice a year during the Keeneland meet and am a large contributor.

If you are sentimental in that way you can visit and thank Sarava in person. Interestingly, Sarava is a nice horse but may bite you; War Emblem has to be isolated and will rip your head off.

I'm hesitant on Bolt because of the distance. he looks like he hangs a little.

My concern with Churchill Downs is that they often roll the track for the derby and breeders Cup leaving a speed oriented track on which nothing can close. They make it rock hard and fast as if fast times will impress new fans. They don't do it every year, but too many years to be comfortable that they won't. santa Anita has been known to do it too. That's why when I used to play Hawthorne every day I would call the track superintendent every morning and find out what they had done and what the depths were that day. A bottle of scotch can get you a lot of info. Would also throw him a few bucks by betting for him.

I'm not going to weigh in with a pick except to say that when Futures Pool #1 opened in November or October closing on 11/26 the Field was a great pick paying win or lose paying 6/5.
There is always a lot of hype over certain 2 year olds and bettors are falling for it.
I went back over it and 13 of the 20 entries are not listed including Justify and Audible meaning if any of those 13 win the bet is a winner.
This year might be better than most but I would still venture to say that the field pick in the first pool in November is ALWAYS an excellent bet. Definitely an advantage play.
In November or October when the pool opens they are only 2 year olds and subject to another grueling 5 months of training and racing which will always mean injuries and dramatic improvement for some.
In November, nobody can say with confidence who the contenders will be.
I didn't get on this bet this year or in any previous year which qualifies me to be not the sharpest knife in the drawer.
But I will 100% for sure get all over this bet next year.





https://www.kentuckyderby.com/upload...Odds-Pool1.pdf

Not my style as the field is always too low. If the field is 6-5, you are better off dutching a bunch of horses on derby day at much higher odds in my opinion.

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Originally Posted by regnis

Not my style as the field is always too low. If the field is 6-5, you are better off dutching a bunch of horses on derby day at much higher odds in my opinion.

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If you don't mind my asking I would like to see how, after the race, you could dutch Justify, who is the morning line favorite at 3/1, Audible at 8/1 and 11 other horses some of whom are not extreme longshots and get better than 6/5.

I'm always willing to learn.

So far track is very fast. 121 and change for 7 furlongs just now.

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Originally Posted by Half Smoke

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Originally Posted by regnis

Not my style as the field is always too low. If the field is 6-5, you are better off dutching a bunch of horses on derby day at much higher odds in my opinion.

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If you don't mind my asking I would like to see how, after the race, you could dutch Justify, who is the morning line favorite at 3/1, Audible at 8/1 and 11 other horses some of whom are not extreme longshots and get better than 6/5.

I'm always willing to learn.

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I would never suggest dutching that many. But if you have 4 or 5 you can easily do it. I don’t have it on me but if you google it you can get the dutching chart.

I don’t Dutch and rarely hedge, so it ain’t for me. I was just saying it’s a way to get better than 6-5.

It looks like rain all day on saturdat, which wont reall change my top 6

5.6.9.11.14.18........the remaing 4 horses for the 2nd and third..i am still figuring out but 1 and 4 might sneak into 3rd in the mud. I would probably go wtih 4 because the 1 spot is a real bitch. Under neath among others I like are 10,,12

I have no idea how some of these horses will react to getting mud kicked up in their face.....and maybe now the front runners may have an advantage in that respect.

i hesitate with magnum moon because i feel there may be a chance pletcher uses him to fry Justify. Not sure..but it could happen. I want a speed duel....but may not get it. Its totally a guess. Maybe 3 or 4 might challenge justify as well. and they are on the inside of justify...

My people down there say not that much rain, if any. Scattered and shouldn't make the track sloppy. We shall see.

Today was definitely a speed bias. Nothing could really close and speed held on when it shouldn't. I was up and down with wild swings ending with a very moderate win due to the Oaks.

In the Oaks-Forrester-Derby Pick 3 I used 5 and 6 big in the Derby. Also have 7,9,14 a little, and all a couple times. Based upon the track bias today, Justify scares me a little but I still like Audible.

Will be interesting to see the track condition by the time of the race....Gonna use 4 on top in a series of tri`s and P4 and P5`s- Justify, Noble Indy, Audible, and still deciding between Good Magic and My Boy Jack....am tossing the Dubai horse Mendelssohn....no truth to the rumor he has grey hair and loves talking about himself.....Good Luck

Well—it’s sloppy. So much for my sources down there. Could dry up by derby if rain stops

Among other bets, my primary will be trifecta:

5-67-all
5-all-6,10
All-5-6,10,16
5 over a bunch

I bet 270 dollars on a 50 cent trip part wheel. And included number 7 when I saw the track..

Got back just under 71 dollars. What a "win"

The $71 didn't do me much good either. All day I was inside out and first and third like in the derby. Had a small amount on the right way tri but way too much the way I described above.

I didn't realize but on the derby recap show they said the favorite has now won 6 straight years.

I read something a few years ago, ans I dont know if you agree, but it makes sense.

It was said that since the point system came into play, there is more of an honest race.
Before the point system, some rich owner who wanted to have his sprinter horse who only had experience running 7f could get him in. And one or 2 horses like that can do nothing other than set an unrealistic pace and then die out. Horses that needed to or wanted to stay near the lead were hung out to dry...leavng it open for some midpack lesser known horses to have a chance.

Now with a more honest race....a talented front runner with good post positio has a real advantage. He can set a realistic pace., and there are 19 horses behind that have to navigate the post position, and then navigate passing more horses than they ever had beeen used to....what would have been 2-3 wide in a 10 horse race, they are now going 5-6 wide. Combine that with a bunch of horses that have to go both forward and "over" from post positons line 12-20...that takes time.....and how do you make up that time agasint a horse that is in the lead from the beginning. Its easy after losing time when the gate opend going right to left toward the rail...you can now lose time by being 3-4-5-6 horses wide in the far turn. It really . has to be a monster horse to overcome those precious lost seconds.Not to mention the bumping that goes on that the front runner doesnt feel. A fave speed horse has a real advantage in a 20 horse race. And with the point system, the chance of having to initially ho agasint a sprint horse is gone.

That doesn't sound unreasonable. There are still too many horses that don't belong in the race.

Over the years people ask me if I think a certain horse can get the mile and a quarter. I always give them the old standard response---

"they couldn't ship that horse a mile and a quarter".

Many years ago a great 6 furlong horse was entered in the derby that fits exactly with your premise. His name was Shecky Green. He was as good as any sprinter at the time and couldn't get a mile and a quarter on a van.

Maybe the point system has kept some of those out of the race.

One of the best weeks of racing starts tomorrow--Royal Ascot. Besides all the festivities, the field size, and thus the payoffs, can be massive. While we suffer through 5 and 6 horse fields on a daily basis here, the 6 races tomorrow have entries of:
1st--15
2nd--24
3rd--14
4th--10
5th--20
6th--16

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Originally Posted by regnis

One of the best weeks of racing starts tomorrow--Royal Ascot. Besides all the festivities, the field size, and thus the payoffs, can be massive. While we suffer through 5 and 6 horse fields on a daily basis here, the 6 races tomorrow have entries of:
1st--15
2nd--24
3rd--14
4th--10
5th--20
6th--16

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Thanks for reminding me. I actually watched most of this last year -- for the first time.

BUMP--

Here we go again. Another Derby and again the threat of rain all week leading up to it. Seems like every year we have rain or the threat of rain for the Derby.

The favorite is out with an entrapped epiglottis. Not a serious injury--he will be back. I did not like the horse anyway so I would have preferred that he run as a false favorite (in my opinion). I have not made a selection yet and won't until we have a better idea of weather and track conditions. But I have some thought of using Vekoma as a value play. But too soon to commit.

I read through page one of this thread before realizing all the analysis was from last years race LOL

What are your early thoughts this year regnis and how did last years Derby work out for you?

thanks,

RD

RD-I will be happy to give you my thoughts after I get a better feel for conditions. Again, my early thought is that Vekoma offers a lot of value. But I really am still looking at about 8 horses at this time.

Last year I keyed everything in the Derby off of Audible and just caught some small savers.

Well-today (Friday) it started out very sloppy but completely dried up. But the track was lightening fast all day. They have eased back on the forecast and may avoid any more significant rain.
At this time, I will be using 5,6,7,8 and 16 in some fashion and still with the intent to key Vekoma.

Had a pretty good day today as Pick 3's, 4's and 5's were paying unusually high and there was a clear speed bias. Even with the bias, there was a lot of value to be had.

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Originally Posted by regnis

Well-today (Friday) it started out very sloppy but completely dried up. But the track was lightening fast all day. They have eased back on the forecast and may avoid any more significant rain.
At this time, I will be using 5,6,7,8 and 16 in some fashion and still with the intent to key Vekoma.

Had a pretty good day today as Pick 3's, 4's and 5's were paying unusually high and there was a clear speed bias. Even with the bias, there was a lot of value to be had.

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Thanks and good luck!

I will toss in a couple of lottery tickets on superfectas for fun!

Country House for the win!!!!!!!!

Dry all day then rained for 40 minutes before the derby. Wound up keying the 7 with the 6,8,16, and 20 . Was thrilled when it came 7-20. Then the bad news. Turned a huge win into a medium loss. Hate to see a derby decided on a dq.

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Originally Posted by regnis

Dry all day then rained for 40 minutes before the derby. Wound up keying the 7 with the 6,8,16, and 20 . Was thrilled when it came 7-20. Then the bad news. Turned a huge win into a medium loss. Hate to see a derby decided on a dq.

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I don't think they had much in the way of options, given that the jockey has a history of riding like that. Most of the horse racing publicity the last few months has been negative, focusing on the injuries and deaths. It was the wrong Derby ride at the wrong time.

I can guaranty no triple crown threat this year.

If you looked at the faces of the jockey and owner during the inquiry you got a pretty good feeling he was going to be dq'ed

The tipoff for me was when the interviewer rode up on his horse and said something to Max's jockey and got no response, then said, "I was kidding. You should be enjoying the moment," or something like that. The Max jockey clearly knew he was in deep shit. I know nothing, but I knew then that there was a problem. And the first words out of the trainer and jockey's mouths had to do with "He drifted out a little because of the crowd" or "He's a baby and he drifted" or stuff like that. They were making excuses instead of celebrating, so I thought there was an issue.

Another angle on this, which my partner mentioned, is that American racing is trying to generate international interest in Japan and China, and the riding in Japan and China is ultra-clean. So you don't want the international bettors tuning in and seeing American jockeys weaving and banging. It turns off all of those international bettors.

That was a good horse that was taken down, but the jockey should have maintained his composure during the race. He rode like it was a 10K claimer at Penn National.

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Originally Posted by regnis

Well-today (Friday) it started out very sloppy but completely dried up. But the track was lightening fast all day. They have eased back on the forecast and may avoid any more significant rain.
At this time, I will be using 5,6,7,8 and 16 in some fashion and still with the intent to key Vekoma.

Had a pretty good day today as Pick 3's, 4's and 5's were paying unusually high and there was a clear speed bias. Even with the bias, there was a lot of value to be had.

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Outstanding...you were gonna key Vekoma,and no mention of Country House, but after the race you would have nailed a Max Security/Country House exacta with Max Security as your key....really amazing to be able to change and adapt on the fly like that!

Key--whether I win or lose you are compelled to give me shit. You do realize that i lost!!!.

It was not a stretch to include the Country House. He is by one of the premier slop sires. Did I like the horse--NO. Did I adjust my picks when the track became sloppy--YES. All of the horses that I ultimately used were by top slop sires. That simple. And again--I LOST THE FUCKIN BET!!!!!

And unless the track comes up sloppy in the Preakness or Belmont, I still won't use Country House.

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Originally Posted by redietz

The tipoff for me was when the interviewer rode up on his horse and said something to Max's jockey and got no response, then said, "I was kidding. You should be enjoying the moment," or something like that. The Max jockey clearly knew he was in deep shit. I know nothing, but I knew then that there was a problem. And the first words out of the trainer and jockey's mouths had to do with "He drifted out a little because of the crowd" or "He's a baby and he drifted" or stuff like that. They were making excuses instead of celebrating, so I thought there was an issue.

Another angle on this, which my partner mentioned, is that American racing is trying to generate international interest in Japan and China, and the riding in Japan and China is ultra-clean. So you don't want the international bettors tuning in and seeing American jockeys weaving and banging. It turns off all of those international bettors.

That was a good horse that was taken down, but the jockey should have maintained his composure during the race. He rode like it was a 10K claimer at Penn National.

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Won't ever attract international interest until they do something about the drugs. When I was consulting/managing some smaller stables it was a constant fight I had with trainers. Besides the fact that I am against the uncontrolled drug use, I was really opposed to the use of drugs for no legitimate medical reason both from an ethical standpoint and a cost analysis. Most owners have no idea of the costs attendant to drugs and vets for no medical reason. It's a part of a broken system. The trainers could never explain to me why certain horses had to be on meds when there was no medical issue to be found. It was clearly a belief that the meds were performance enhancing and they didn't care about need or the welfare of the horse.

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Originally Posted by regnis

Key--whether I win or lose you are compelled to give me shit. You do realize that i lost!!!.

It was not a stretch to include the Country House. He is by one of the premier slop sires. Did I like the horse--NO. Did I adjust my picks when the track became sloppy--YES. All of the horses that I ultimately used were by top slop sires. That simple. And again--I LOST THE FUCKIN BET!!!!!

And unless the track comes up sloppy in the Preakness or Belmont, I still won't use Country House.

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Not giving you shit at all, I actually like you....just trying to understand the rationale from switching to Max Security from Vekoma because the track came up sloppy....certainly Candy Ride is more of a proven slop sire than the relatively new sire New Years Day, no?....actually Country House did make some sense...one of the criteria I use in handicapping that particular race is to use horses that have 3 ascending speed figures in a row in their previous 3 races....Country House was one of 6 that fit that bill

Fair enough. There were two reasons I liked Vekoma. First--the price. Second, I thought he could get position behind the speed and get a good trip.

When the track came up sloppy, my theory is always that speed is good on fresh slop, and closers better on drying out-deeper slop. So now Vekoma was not a play as he was definitely not in the speed mix. Yes, otherwise I like Candy Ride in the slop--I think the 16 was a Candy Ride which is why I threw him in. But the price on Max was now good and there was no question he was the speed. The 20 was by Looking at Lucky so he was a late throw in on breeding. I also eliminated the 5 from my original selections. He was by City Zip who is a good slop sire but again, didn't have enough speed.

All that analysis/knowledge and I still took a beating on the race, and the kid sitting next to me put $50 to show on the 20 for no reason and he didn't even know if it mattered if his horse was put up on the DQ. He didn't know that show paid the same whether he finished first, second, or third.

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Originally Posted by regnis

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Originally Posted by redietz

The tipoff for me was when the interviewer rode up on his horse and said something to Max's jockey and got no response, then said, "I was kidding. You should be enjoying the moment," or something like that. The Max jockey clearly knew he was in deep shit. I know nothing, but I knew then that there was a problem. And the first words out of the trainer and jockey's mouths had to do with "He drifted out a little because of the crowd" or "He's a baby and he drifted" or stuff like that. They were making excuses instead of celebrating, so I thought there was an issue.

Another angle on this, which my partner mentioned, is that American racing is trying to generate international interest in Japan and China, and the riding in Japan and China is ultra-clean. So you don't want the international bettors tuning in and seeing American jockeys weaving and banging. It turns off all of those international bettors.

That was a good horse that was taken down, but the jockey should have maintained his composure during the race. He rode like it was a 10K claimer at Penn National.

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Won't ever attract international interest until they do something about the drugs. When I was consulting/managing some smaller stables it was a constant fight I had with trainers. Besides the fact that I am against the uncontrolled drug use, I was really opposed to the use of drugs for no legitimate medical reason both from an ethical standpoint and a cost analysis. Most owners have no idea of the costs attendant to drugs and vets for no medical reason. It's a part of a broken system. The trainers could never explain to me why certain horses had to be on meds when there was no medical issue to be found. It was clearly a belief that the meds were performance enhancing and they didn't care about need or the welfare of the horse.

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Internationally, drug use is much less than in the US, as regnis says. They want legitimate racing. In China, if your horse underperforms or if you choose to change distances, you have to explain to a panel why it happened or why you want to change distances. Anomalous performances or entry decisions must be explained and/or vetted.

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Originally Posted by regnis

and the kid sitting next to me put $50 to show on the 20 for no reason and he didn't even know if it mattered if his horse was put up on the DQ. He didn't know that show paid the same whether he finished first, second, or third.

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quite a few of the once in a blue moon patrons at these huge events don't understand place and show and others just bet one horse to win, one to place and one to show
it can cause favorites to pay more than they should in the place and show pool - it's not a boxcar thing but can create an edge

American Pharoah went off at 4/5 in the Preakness and paid almost as much to place - $3.40 - in an 8 horse field. - $2.80 to show
Justify went off at 2/5 in the Preakness and paid the same to place as to win - and he paid $2.60 to show also in an 8 horse field - show got you 75% of the profit of the win bet

they came with shots and that helped but still

it happens fairly often on these huge racing days

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Originally Posted by maxx71

Keystone, I've been playing derby for 3 years, but once I've got a trauma on the championship - I've got retired from it, and started to make some home exercises day to day. It's pretty easy because I mean inversions tables (like these: https://cozyhousetoday.com/best-iron...tables-reviews), when you can stretch your muscles to relieve the pain, and also to strengthen them up.

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WTF are you talking about? :confused:

Makes perfect sense to me----if I was high, drunk, and had alzheimers.

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Originally Posted by regnis

Makes perfect sense to me----if I was high, drunk, and had alzheimers.

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How did you end up doing Regnis?

I was doing good early. Then went cold in the middle. Had no bet in the Preakness as I didn't like the race at all. Since it was part of all the multi race wagers I had to use all in the Preakness and was thin elsewhere. I honestly would have never bet the winner other than as part of the all.

How about you?

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Originally Posted by regnis

I was doing good early. Then went cold in the middle. Had no bet in the Preakness as I didn't like the race at all. Since it was part of all the multi race wagers I had to use all in the Preakness and was thin elsewhere. I honestly would have never bet the winner other than as part of the all.

How about you?

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Struck out on all my horizontal plays but did hit the Preakness trifecta...I wheeled War of Will and Anothertwistafate to all for a dollar..cost me $264 and got back $4700...lost a good size win wager on Anothertwistafate and some other combos...all in all it was a good day due to that trifecta, otherwise I thought it was a pretty crappy card for the 2 days wager wise....Belmont in a few weeks should be a great betting card

Nice trifecta. As I said, I really didn't like War of Will. Maybe I put too much into how much ground he lost after the "foul" in the Derby.

Belmont is always a better day for gambling, and of course a better venue. Hopefully either no rain or a ton of rain. I don't like the in between.

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Originally Posted by regnis

Nice trifecta. As I said, I really didn't like War of Will. Maybe I put too much into how much ground he lost after the "foul" in the Derby.

Belmont is always a better day for gambling, and of course a better venue. Hopefully either no rain or a ton of rain. I don't like the in between.

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Thanks...I really wasn`t thrilled about W.O.W. either. I just threw him in because of the huge inside bias that day...sometimes it works out

Nice job, Keystone. Nobody I knew made much of anything on either the Derby or Preakness. To the girlfriend's credit (she had five of the last six Derby winners), she bet very little. Said it was the most difficult couple of Triple Crown races she'd seen in years and years. I had one friend swear off race betting after the Derby result -- we'll see about that.

Anyway -- congrats again, Keystone. Tough races to figure, even with the inside bias.

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Originally Posted by redietz

Nice job, Keystone. Nobody I knew made much of anything on either the Derby or Preakness. To the girlfriend's credit (she had five of the last six Derby winners), she bet very little. Said it was the most difficult couple of Triple Crown races she'd seen in years and years. I had one friend swear off race betting after the Derby result -- we'll see about that.

Anyway -- congrats again, Keystone. Tough races to figure, even with the inside bias.

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Thx...I’m more of a P4,5 and 6 player but it’s nice to hit a tri or super once in a while

Don't mention the Pick 6 to me. I'm addicted to the Gulfstream Pick 6. I have been chasing it for weeks. Today I had a good consolation but it's only the second good one I've had in about 3-4 weeks. Thought it might pay a little more today but I'll take it.

Do you play it?

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Originally Posted by regnis

Don't mention the Pick 6 to me. I'm addicted to the Gulfstream Pick 6. I have been chasing it for weeks. Today I had a good consolation but it's only the second good one I've had in about 3-4 weeks. Thought it might pay a little more today but I'll take it.

Do you play it?

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Nice hit there, well done....I usually only play Gulf during the Champions meet. Don`t have much luck there otherwise...I usually focus mainly on NYRA, Keeneland, Kentucky Downs and SoCal....Don`t play the smaller circuits except maybe on a blue moon.Too many cheap rat horses and cheating rat trainers

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Originally Posted by Keystone

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Originally Posted by regnis

Don't mention the Pick 6 to me. I'm addicted to the Gulfstream Pick 6. I have been chasing it for weeks. Today I had a good consolation but it's only the second good one I've had in about 3-4 weeks. Thought it might pay a little more today but I'll take it.

Do you play it?

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Nice hit there, well done....I usually only play Gulf during the Champions meet. Don`t have much luck there otherwise...I usually focus mainly on NYRA, Keeneland, Kentucky Downs and SoCal....Don`t play the smaller circuits except maybe on a blue moon.Too many cheap rat horses and cheating rat trainers

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Keystone, you're not referring to my old hangout, Penn National, are you? LOL. Some people say the PN trainers have more pharmaceuticals than Hunter Thompson stashed in the trunk of his car:

"The trunk of the car looked like a mobile police narcotics lab. We had two bags of grass, seventy-five pellets of mescaline, five sheets of high-powered blotter acid, a salt shaker half full of cocaine, and a whole galaxy of multi-colored uppers, downers, screamers, laughers...and also a quart of tequila, a quart of rum, a case of Budweiser, a pint of ether, and two dozen amyls...Not that we needed all that for the trip, but once you get locked into a serious drug collection, the tendency is to push it as far as you can."

Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas

Considerably lower takeout at NYRA - also breakage to the dime instead of 20 cent. Woodbine does that too but not as good a deal on the takeout - unfortunately in NY they seem to crunch down the favorites more than elsewhere and I'm too often a chalk eater. better deal for non fave bettor



http://www.brisnet.com/library/trktkout.pdf




"not a man alive can pay the bills with 4/5"



but then again



"better a short price than a long face"

just realized - that chart I linked above is from 2009 - it's out of date -

this is the most recent one I could find - from 2014 - and it's not complete



http://gettingoutofthegate.com/takeout-rates-and-cd/

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Half Smoke

just realized - that chart I linked above is from 2009 - it's out of date -

this is the most recent one I could find - from 2014 - and it's not complete



http://gettingoutofthegate.com/takeout-rates-and-cd/

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Good stuff Half Smoke...IMO, the P5 is the best wager out there. Very difficult to hit, but almost always pays nice....@redeitz- lol, no wasn`t necessarily talking about Penn National. I don`t think I`ve ever played a race from there. I used to dabble a bit at Parx,but stopped a few years back.... their takeout rate is highway robbery

Okay, it took some searching, but I finally found a totally up to date complete chart of takeouts:



http://www.horseplayersassociation.o...7Sortable.html


you might also find this useful: in his classic book from the 60s Tom Ainslie identified a favorite/longshot bias
I've heard a lot of people on the boards say it no longer exists
but Barry Meadow just posted data from about 863,000 races in his new book "The Skeptical Handicapper"
the bias definitely still exists and is quite strong
with odds over 15/1 the ROI keeps getting worse and continues to much, much worse

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Half Smoke

quite a few of the once in a blue moon patrons at these huge events don't understand place and show and others just bet one horse to win, one to place and one to show
it can cause favorites to pay more than they should in the place and show pool - it's not a boxcar thing but can create an edg

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just went pretty heavy on McKinzie to show in the Met Mile - he was the fave and was in the money with the 2nd fave and the 4th fave
show paid $2.70 - it's true odds were more like for McKinzie to pay $2.30 or $2.40 - McKinzie has been in lots of graded stakes races and has only been out of the money once in 10 times
not the kind of payout to brag about but I believe I had a nice edge - I'm happy with that


McKinzie is a horse with major league talent who almost never disappoints. today he got 2nd coming very strong at the finish at Mitole despite a terrible trip