LarryS,
Congratulations, you're the pot.
Rob Singer made an OP that basically amounted to saying eighteen Yo's in a row is mathematically possible. He also said:
Quote:
Now ask yourself: what if they came out "in a row" and not dispersed among all the other throws? Possible? Of course....at least mathematically possible, which is the entire point here, especially among a bunch of armchair gambling theorists (and constipated stay-at-home "daddy" admins. from WoV ).
Which I took to mean me because I am the only male here who I believe was ever an Admin at WoV.
Therefore, I followed his post up with a quote of a post of mine from over five years ago pointing out that I already said it's mathematically possible. This was in response to his OP which directly argued that it's mathematically possible.
But, you're clearly a little slow on the uptake. I have to believe you read everything twice by now, maybe try three times?
On Alan:
I would argue that, at a minimum, Alan believes that it happened. It's quite a common occurrence in the human condition to misremember an event, especially given a long enough passage of time. These events usually end up being romanticized and exaggerated to the misremembering. Very rarely is the scope of the event diminished.
If there's no difference between 99.9% and 100%, then you should pick a sports team, start with a low enough bet amount, and Martingale the shit out of it. You fucking genius. Of course there's a fucking difference between those two numbers, or nothing means anything.
No, there is a difference. Why? Because if eighteen Yo's in a row ever does happen, someone will be there. Namely, at least the person rolling the dice...unless a machine is rolling them, for some reason.
Two Other Things:
I'm quickly losing my patience, so I'll keep this quick:
1.) As the sample size goes up, the probability that one set of eighteen rolls that has taken place yielding eighteen Yo's in a row constantly increases. If the human race exists and continues to play craps for a long enough period of time, the probability that one set of eighteen rolls yielded that result will eventually surpass 50%. Given an even longer period of time, that probability will be 99.9%, which you seem to think is just as good as 100%.
2.) At what point does it become impossible? When is a certain number of Yo's in a row unacceptable to you? Seventeen? Nine? Three?
What we do know is that, at some point with a fair pair of dice, the most elevens in a row has been rolled. We don't know how many it was, and there might be a tie for first place, but it happened. More than that, I imagine whoever told the story of that, whether it be twelve times, thirteen, whatever number...was doubted.
But, at some point, the most Yo's in a row to this point has been rolled. At some point, whatever that record is, it will likely be eclipsed if we, as a species, play craps long enough.
Anyway, where you say, "Impossible," I say, "Extremely unlikely." In fact, there is almost no limit to the number of superlatives I would be willing to put before the word, "Unlikely," but after the word, "Extremely." I'm not willing to say, "Impossible," because:
1.) I wasn't there.
2.) It's not mathematically impossible.
I don't speak with 100% surety to events that I was not present to witness. If that's not good enough for you, go fuck yourself.
