My free play. I get $50 at Red Rock twice a week. Here's the result. All warts and wrinkles included.
https://youtu.be/C4hhq5sv64U
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My free play. I get $50 at Red Rock twice a week. Here's the result. All warts and wrinkles included.
https://youtu.be/C4hhq5sv64U
Didn't you say you knew bonus poker almost perfect?
Open-ended vs a high card, and you don't know if that's right? LOL
Q vs 567ss and you held the queen. LOL
JQSS A 10 OFF and you held the inside. LOL
I am embarrassed for you. Not because you don't know. But because you said you knew it almost perfect. Yet, in just a few hands, while playing slow, videoing it, and then posing it... you butchered the strategy.
Axel, guess again.
Q vs suited 567. I'll hold the queen every time with no high cards in the straight flush draw. As Grochowski wrote in his book pairing any low card is meaningless. He also wrote that by holding only the queen vs three SF low cards I have four chances to pair the queen or draw another paying pair. Holding three low SF cards is too much of a long shot.
It was different with the low card open ended straight with a king. There were 8 low cards to complete the straight. Of course you had to pick up on my comment about it being right because you'll nitpick everything I say or do to find something to criticize me about.
And yes I held the inside straight with three high cards that could be paired. Did you read Grochowski's book?
What did you want me to do, hold two royal cards? Talk about long shots.
No wonder you can't win in casinos. Just pathetic!Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
https://wizardofodds.com/games/video...80-d-50-d-800/Quote:
Originally Posted by jbjbNo wonder you can't win in casinos. Just pathetic!Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
A single high card is near the damn bottom of the list! You REALLY need to quit listening to Singer, who, undoubtedly taught you to hold just the Q here!
Why is he reading books?
I thought everyone was hip to the computer programs these days?
Cell Phone Apps are stronger these days crunching the strategy numbers compared to a book??
After he seen that UFO and 18 Yos in a row is his mind shot?
Why does he use the touch screen? Doesn't he know that at times it can malfunction and unhold a card compared to using the buttons?
He almost held 99 vs a 4 Flush.
I suspect he has made that mistake many times over in his VP career.
He really doesn't understand the 2 card Royal Holds!?
How can anyone really help this guy??
Actually it was easier to use the touch screen because of the way I was holding my phone.
Rob has nothing to do with how I learned Bonus and if I still had Grochowski's book I'd cite the pages.
No, I'm not going to hold three low cards to a straight flush. I used to, until I read Grochowski's book.
By the way I did pair the ace when I held AJQT. Again I gave myself the options for a straight and pairing three high cards... like the book said.
Struggling with 40 hands and Recording it... :(Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Monet do you really want a fight over the buttons?
When I use the buttons I play with both hands on the buttons, as if I'm typing. We'll one hand was holding the camera and the camera blocked my view of the buttons.
Are you going to turn this into a five page argument?
Grochowski is 100% wrong if that's what's in his book. On top of that, he's what Rob calls an "armchair gambler." A lone Q over 567 suited isnt even close. Now had you put a disclaimer saying you're use free play to chase royals or the easier to hit paying hands, nobody would fault you.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Holding the Q is an easier to hit paying hand. Isn't that the objective, to get paid?
NO, the object is to make as much as possible! I'll make way more holding 567 suited!Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Alan,
You’re not helping yourself in this debate at all. I’m not trying to pile on, I’m just saying you should listen to what everyone is saying. The comments have been mostly polite.
I think everyone has played a paytable/game badly before learning how to play it. I know I certainly have. I’m sure I would positively suck on more games/tables than I am good at. There are only a handful of games where I’m confident I could go 100 hands error free, forget about 1,000. There are only two individual paytables on two games where I even believe I could go 1,000 hands flawlessly.
Anyway, just use the tools and try to learn the proper strategy for your game of choice. Plenty of tools out there. You don’t have to get perfect, but you definitely need to get better.
What's ironic is that I had this same discussion with Rob some years ago when he watched me play at Caesars. I was holding a high card vs three low SF cards. Rob told me the correct play was to hold the three low SF cards. I still held the high card because I wanted four chances to at least get my money back. Three low cards to a SF? Not for me after what I learned.Quote:
Originally Posted by jbjbNO, the object is to make as much as possible! I'll make way more holding 567 suited!Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
This discussion is similar to the one about odds in craps. Sure your passline odds in craps have zero house advantage but they only have about a 64% chance of winning.
And to answer Mission: yes I know that three small SF cards has a higher EV. But it's not more likely for me to hit a winner. That's the strategy I learned.
These guys are lost causes.
But on the bright side, he could've just picked a random slot machine, which would've been worse then the bad play in this video.
I am probably wrong because whenever I debate you I end up on the losing end.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mission146
I just don't understand how hard it is to print up a strategy for whatever game you are playing and if you get stuck you look up the hold.
If you are in some Casino and fear looking up a hold I would either have it on my phone or I would memorize it perfectly before I played.
I guess the last circumstance if I have to play asap and I can't learn it and I can't look at a strategy chart on my phone or on paper.
This sounds highly unlikely but I guess you could play and make mistakes which would be better if the promotion is pushing you way over.
Most of what I have done for a very long time is play thin edges so I know these Advanced Strategies forwards and backwards but when I get stuck I look it up.
I can't see how you are wrong... No reason to really try to talk or teach these guys anything. They don't give a shit and they just like to argue.Quote:
Originally Posted by jbjb
When a guy doesn't want to change the incorrect strategy because he learned the wrong strategy how can you help him?
Even after he knows the math and how bad it is he isn't going to change it because that isn't the way he learned it!
This is like how those BJ players stand on 16 all the time vs a 10 and they say I don't want to bust.
I want to give the dealer the chance to bust.
You do? Comes as a surprise to me, I thought I was the one losing most of the debates.Quote:
Originally Posted by monet
I agree with you 100% about printing up a strategy, especially if you're a recreational player. I don't know that I want to make a customized strategy for playing a JP promo on high denom and be sitting there with that in front of me as it would be a surefire heat magnet. I also don't know that you want to be busting out a strategy chart for borderline holds whilst vulturing UX if you're a hustler like me...my knowledge of DDB is, "Good enough for the purpose."
But, yeah, I agree 100% that it is a great thing to have if you're playing a session and you don't have the strategy down cold. Either on the phone or on paper. Especially when it comes to the thin edges you describe. I'm pretty sure we're close to 100% in agreement on this one with only two possible points of departure:
-I wouldn't worry about it vulturing.
-I would hesitate to use it on a high EV promotion.
If I were you use the type of strategy Alan uses, I would've just went to a $10 machine and played just one hand with the free play trying to get two pair or better.
You do that jbjb. Let us know how it worked out.Quote:
Originally Posted by jbjb
I play long sessions of thin edges.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mission146You do? Comes as a surprise to me, I thought I was the one losing most of the debates.Quote:
Originally Posted by monet
I agree with you 100% about printing up a strategy, especially if you're a recreational player. I don't know that I want to make a customized strategy for playing a JP promo on high denom and be sitting there with that in front of me as it would be a surefire heat magnet. I also don't know that you want to be busting out a strategy chart for borderline holds whilst vulturing UX if you're a hustler like me...my knowledge of DDB is, "Good enough for the purpose."
But, yeah, I agree 100% that it is a great thing to have if you're playing a session and you don't have the strategy down cold. Either on the phone or on paper. Especially when it comes to the thin edges you describe. I'm pretty sure we're close to 100% in agreement on this one with only two possible points of departure:
-I wouldn't worry about it vulturing.
-I would hesitate to use it on a high EV promotion.
I play all over town every day.
I hardly vulture because it takes up too much time and in this town it isn't worth it to me.
I have never once gotten in any trouble over a strategy chart which is very small to begin with.
I don't understand how these guys get in trouble looking at strategy charts.
Sometimes I put it inside of my Sports Book sheets that have the daily lines on them.
Normally I do not have to look anything up but sometimes I want to make sure.
When I first started out I used to look at them all the time and I mean all the time.
To me, the most important thing was you quit when once through. Yeah, I would have played a few hands differently, but anything can happen. I once witnessed a lady holding high card kickers to a pair on her draws and dang if she didn't hit quads playing the most unorthodox draws. I used to play it all completely, and seldom was I better off.
I have no disagreements with any of that.Quote:
Originally Posted by monet
As it was explained: it was three low cards. It would take an exceptional draw to make straight and a 1/1081 chance to hit a SF is what I remember. One pair pays nothing.
Holding the single high card gives you a good chance of hitting something with four cards being drawn.
Had the three SF cards included one or two high cards it would have been a different situation.
As I mentioned earlier Rob Singer years ago said the correct play was the three low SF cards. But then and now I still follow the strategy to hold the single high card.
I've had similar hands dealt to me and not once did the missing SF cards show on the draw. While that doesn't prove anything I can say I never regretted holding just the high card.
You guys should feel very good that Rob would play the hand the same way you do.
I don't know enough to know what the right move is, but I would have assumed the 3 low cards was better.
But can someone tell us what the difference is in actual dollars and cents. Are we talking pennies or 10ths of a penny or what. Is it even material is really my question.
https://wizardofodds.com/games/video...hand-analyzer/Quote:
Originally Posted by regnis
The EV on suited 5-6-7 is 2.895467 coins vs. holding Q only which is 2.386174 coins. The total difference in expected return is (2.895467-2.386174) = 0.509293 coins, which comes out to about 12.732325 cents, which is very nearly 10% of the total amount that was bet that hand.
Depending on the denomination and number of hands being played, the cost of the error can go up (or down if it is single-handed at a lower denomination).
Anyway, Alan plays a fair deal of video poker, so the more you repeat this error, the more it costs in total in the long run.
Like Alan said, "This is 8/5 Bonus Poker which has a return of 99.17%," well, not playing like that it doesn't.
Funny thing is it would have been a bigger mistake had the hand not contained a straight penalty card against the SF draw.
With him, it's more like 97.2%Quote:
Originally Posted by Mission146https://wizardofodds.com/games/video...hand-analyzer/Quote:
Originally Posted by regnis
The EV on suited 5-6-7 is 2.895467 coins vs. holding Q only which is 2.386174 coins. The total difference in expected return is (2.895467-2.386174) = 0.509293 coins, which comes out to about 12.732325 cents, which is very nearly 10% of the total amount that was bet that hand.
Depending on the denomination and number of hands being played, the cost of the error can go up (or down if it is single-handed at a lower denomination).
Anyway, Alan plays a fair deal of video poker, so the more you repeat this error, the more it costs in total in the long run.
Like Alan said, "This is 8/5 Bonus Poker which has a return of 99.17%," well, not playing like that it doesn't.
Thanks. That is NOT insignificant.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mission146https://wizardofodds.com/games/video...hand-analyzer/Quote:
Originally Posted by regnis
The EV on suited 5-6-7 is 2.895467 coins vs. holding Q only which is 2.386174 coins. The total difference in expected return is (2.895467-2.386174) = 0.509293 coins, which comes out to about 12.732325 cents, which is very nearly 10% of the total amount that was bet that hand.
Depending on the denomination and number of hands being played, the cost of the error can go up (or down if it is single-handed at a lower denomination).
Anyway, Alan plays a fair deal of video poker, so the more you repeat this error, the more it costs in total in the long run.
Like Alan said, "This is 8/5 Bonus Poker which has a return of 99.17%," well, not playing like that it doesn't.
Funny thing is it would have been a bigger mistake had the hand not contained a straight penalty card against the SF draw.
Let's take a look at that Straight Flush:Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
You hold 567:
Okay, so you can get 34, 48, or 89 to pick up the straight flush.
There are 47*46 = 2,162 combinations of cards and three of those combinations deliver you a straight flush:
2162/3 = 1 in 720.67
The 1,081 you're thinking of is probably a straight flush draw with one of the cards being a gutshot, that would only give you two combinations.
Of course, even in the example hand, Qh, 9d, 4s, 6s, 7s, the 467SSS is still the better hold. 568SSS is closer (but still better) though closer because the 9 becomes a penalty card against a regular straight.
You are both welcome and correct.Quote:
Originally Posted by regnis
You forgot to divide by 2. It's 1081/3 or 1 in 360.333...Quote:
Originally Posted by Mission146Let's take a look at that Straight Flush:Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
You hold 567:
Okay, so you can get 34, 48, or 89 to pick up the straight flush.
There are 47*46 = 2,162 combinations of cards and three of those combinations deliver you a straight flush:
2162/3 = 1 in 720.67
The 1,081 you're thinking of is probably a straight flush draw with one of the cards being a gutshot, that would only give you two combinations.
Of course, even in the example hand, Qh, 9d, 4s, 6s, 7s, the 467SSS is still the better hold. 568SSS is closer (but still better) though closer because the 9 becomes a penalty card against a regular straight.
Here's one for you all. You are dealt AKQJ9 of spades on your very last bet. You have absolutely no more money to your name and can't get any. Are you holding the flush or going for the royal?
You're quite correct, thank you! I'll do this the long way really quick so everybody gets what we're talking about:Quote:
Originally Posted by jbjb
Here are the combinations, 34, 48 and 89, so let's look at each individually:
34: (2/47 * 1/46) = 0.00092506938
48: (2/47 * 1/46) = 0.00092506938
89: (2/47 * 1/46) = 0.00092506938
.00092506938*3 = 0.00277520814 or 1/0.00277520814 = 1 in 360.3333...
So, there you go. The possibility of hitting the SH is worth 250/360.3333 = 0.69380203579 coins by itself.
EDIT: Sorry about butchering this post so many times. The quote within a quote thing really messes me up, and, "Go Advanced," is the only way I'm comfortable, but I try to save time by not doing it and usually fuck something up.
I'm going for the Royal, unless it's hearts. I don't draw well to hearts. ;) LOLQuote:
Originally Posted by jbjb
Regardless, Alan did it for the easier pay off. This, to me, would only make sense if you really, REALLY needed the money or you play very very little video poker.
Personally I hate these draws myself. Get them a lot on UX plays.
The royal every time. There’s always another day.Quote:
Originally Posted by jbjb
P.S.
I’ve never been in a situation where I can’t get anymore money.
I've asked this question. But I asked it this way: you're playing a $100/coin machine one time. Does the amount of money make a difference?Quote:
Originally Posted by dannyjThe royal every time. There’s always another day.Quote:
Originally Posted by jbjb
I think it might Alan. I have never played over $25 denomination. Interesting question, I guess it would depend on how I was doing for day/trip.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan MendelsonI've asked this question. But I asked it this way: you're playing a $100/coin machine one time. Does the amount of money make a difference?Quote:
Originally Posted by dannyjThe royal every time. There’s always another day.Quote:
Originally Posted by jbjb
If it hits, I doubt if I'll worry about criticism.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan MendelsonI've asked this question. But I asked it this way: you're playing a $100/coin machine one time. Does the amount of money make a difference?Quote:
Originally Posted by dannyjThe royal every time. There’s always another day.Quote:
Originally Posted by jbjb
The denomination makes no difference to me. 1 cent or $100 credits, I'm going for the right play.
Really? Then put yourself in the shoes of Joe Blow who usually plays 25-cent video poker. He gets the urge to play one hand of $100/coin VP. He's dealt AKQJ9 of spades. What would your advice be to him?Quote:
Originally Posted by jbjb
Here's what I'd say: can you afford to lose that $500, and would $2500 make a difference to you?
Really bad analogy or hypothetical. You gave Joe Blow a 47-1 shot for 400 thousand dollars!! That's life changing money and it's by far the mathematical play.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan MendelsonReally? Then put yourself in the shoes of Joe Blow who usually plays 25-cent video poker. He gets the urge to play one hand of $100/coin VP. He's dealt AKQJ9 of spades. What would your advice be to him?Quote:
Originally Posted by jbjb
Here's what I'd say: can you afford to lose that $500, and would $2500 make a difference to you?
800-1 on his money on his one time pull for fun!? Go Fuck Yourself!
You act like he can't make another flush or straight or pay pair!?
Even pros don't get many 47-1 shots for 400 dimes!!
Rethink the stupid hypothetical question and make it more difficult to decide.
I think a very good hypothetical is say you are vulturing Ultimate X, let's make it three-play, $5 denomination and you're a low-level hustler:
Anyway, you're on TDB and you get dealt A-A-A-4-x, the right play is to hold A-A-A-4, but the A-A-A draw still gives you a much better opportunity to get a very high paying hand. Specifically, without multipliers, it's 4k for no kicker and 20k for a kicker.
I think it's a mistake between $90-$100 per hand without any multipliers, but we're three-handed, so the mistake is about $280-something before multipliers and then another $90-something for each multiplier over 1x.
Again, you're just vulturing. You're not sitting there playing sessions of TDB as a matter of habit. Obviously just holding AAA would be completely unjustifiable if you were playing sessions of TDB. In fact, you hate TDB and would need a REALLY good reason to ever play it.
What do you, personally, do?
I call that game two for one. No multipliers so worst case scenario he gets his money back right? Still can make a full house or the Royal. Sounds like a free shot. I would talk him into holding the 4. Joe Blow isn't going to know he should hold the 4 and is going to only hold trip aces. However, many ploppies always hold the biggest payday holds so there is that. Other Ploppies might botch the whole hand.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mission146
So it's easy for you to go for the royal and sacrifice a dealt flush for $2500 ?? Well, I'm certainly not in your class. I struggle with dropping a dealt flush every time I get dealt a flush with four to the royal. But at $1 VP or $5 VP I go for the royal -- and I have. However, I never had that problem the few times I played $25 VP.Quote:
Originally Posted by monetReally bad analogy or hypothetical. You gave Joe Blow a 47-1 shot for 400 thousand dollars!! That's life changing money and it's by far the mathematical play.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan MendelsonReally? Then put yourself in the shoes of Joe Blow who usually plays 25-cent video poker. He gets the urge to play one hand of $100/coin VP. He's dealt AKQJ9 of spades. What would your advice be to him?Quote:
Originally Posted by jbjb
Here's what I'd say: can you afford to lose that $500, and would $2500 make a difference to you?
800-1 on his money on his one time pull for fun!? Go Fuck Yourself!
You act like he can't make another flush or straight or pay pair!?
Even pros don't get many 47-1 shots for 400 dimes!!
Rethink the stupid hypothetical question and make it more difficult to decide.
If I ever played $100 VP (and I never did) and faced the problem I would be making a lot of phone calls before I pushed the buttons.
And Alan wonders why he never had a winning year.
You can’t make this shit up, even if you tried.
Yes, the first call should be to your son so he can make a decision as to if he wants to get paid back $2500 or have you go for it so he can be paid back in full if you hit.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan MendelsonSo it's easy for you to go for the royal and sacrifice a dealt flush for $2500 ?? Well, I'm certainly not in your class. I struggle with dropping a dealt flush every time I get dealt a flush with four to the royal. But at $1 VP or $5 VP I go for the royal -- and I have. However, I never had that problem the few times I played $25 VP.Quote:
Originally Posted by monetReally bad analogy or hypothetical. You gave Joe Blow a 47-1 shot for 400 thousand dollars!! That's life changing money and it's by far the mathematical play.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
800-1 on his money on his one time pull for fun!? Go Fuck Yourself!
You act like he can't make another flush or straight or pay pair!?
Even pros don't get many 47-1 shots for 400 dimes!!
Rethink the stupid hypothetical question and make it more difficult to decide.
If I ever played $100 VP (and I never did) and faced the problem I would be making a lot of phone calls before I pushed the buttons.
If you hadn't made this post I would have.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mission146https://wizardofodds.com/games/video...hand-analyzer/Quote:
Originally Posted by regnis
The EV on suited 5-6-7 is 2.895467 coins vs. holding Q only which is 2.386174 coins. The total difference in expected return is (2.895467-2.386174) = 0.509293 coins, which comes out to about 12.732325 cents, which is very nearly 10% of the total amount that was bet that hand.
Depending on the denomination and number of hands being played, the cost of the error can go up (or down if it is single-handed at a lower denomination).
Anyway, Alan plays a fair deal of video poker, so the more you repeat this error, the more it costs in total in the long run.
Like Alan said, "This is 8/5 Bonus Poker which has a return of 99.17%," well, not playing like that it doesn't.
Funny thing is it would have been a bigger mistake had the hand not contained a straight penalty card against the SF draw.
The frequency of holding 567 suited and making a straight flush is exactly the same as holding a pair and making quads, 360.333
Alan, what do you think now?
I always like have fun with numbers. Here's some more interesting stuff about video poker and the 52 card deck. After the initial five cards are dealt there are 47 remaining cards in the deck.
There are 1081 two-card combinations left in the deck
47X46/2X1 = 1081
There are 16215 three-card combinations left in the deck.
47X46X45/3X2X1 = 16215
There are 178365 four-card combinations left in the deck.
47X46X45X44/4X3X2X1 = 178365
178365/16215 = 11
178365/1081 = 165
16215/1081 = 15
There are exactly 11 times more four-card combinations in the deck than three-card combinations.
There are exactly 165 times more four-card combinations in the deck than two-card combinations.
There are exactly 15 times more three-card combinations in the deck than two-card combinations.
There are no fractions involved. Only whole numbers.
Thanks!Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
I think the same thing after this discussion as I did after I had the same discussion with Rob Singer years ago. As I posted earlier, Rob also said the correct hold was the three SF cards. But the strategy I learned and followed is that you had a better chance getting your money back just holding the queen.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
Why do you raise the question about the odds of getting four of a kind? I was not holding the lone Q to get four of a kind. Honestly, I was running my free play through once to maximize the value of the free play. Holding the lone queen did that by giving me four chances to pair the Queen or draw another paying pair or better.
As I read years ago, holding three small SF cards was nothing but a long shot -- and a tremendous long shot. It's 1/1081 to draw the straight flush, right Mickey? I wrote that number before in this thread but it was overlooked.
Ive had similar dealt hands over all the years I've played video poker, and never once did the SF cards show up on the draw. Gosh, how many times have all of us been dealt four to the royal and the single draw card was a blank? You saw in the video that on one hand I was dealt three to the royal -- also a 1/1081 draw -- and that was a miss too.
The reason I posted my free play video was to show an example of real results. This isn't armchair gambling, but it certainly brought out the Monday Morning Quarterbacks.
The rationale for not holding three small SF cards is sound -- because even a pair doesn't pay. And as I said make the SF draw with one high card or two and that changes everything.
You call it the wrong play -- but it was the right play for me. I wanted to convert free play to cash. But I assure you if there were four dealt cards with only one card to draw (as in a dealt four card royal) I would have taken the 1/47 shot. But a 1/1081 shot with only forty hands to be played? No thanks.
Alan,
It's your money or FP, so you play however you want. It's not for me to tell you what to do with your money. As long as you understand the EV costs, then I feel like I've done my part to try to help you. I play a -EV game every now and then, so it would be hypocritical for me to tell you that you can't play VP the way you want to.
It's not 1 in 1081. It's 3 in 1081. In other words 1 in 360.3333. There are three combinations that make the straight flush. When holding 567suited you can catch 34, 48, 89.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan MendelsonI think the same thing after this discussion as I did after I had the same discussion with Rob Singer years ago. As I posted earlier, Rob also said the correct hold was the three SF cards. But the strategy I learned and followed is that you had a better chance getting your money back just holding the queen.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
Why do you raise the question about the odds of getting four of a kind? I was not holding the lone Q to get four of a kind. Honestly, I was running my free play through once to maximize the value of the free play. Holding the lone queen did that by giving me four chances to pair the Queen or draw another paying pair or better.
As I read years ago, holding three small SF cards was nothing but a long shot -- and a tremendous long shot. It's 1/1081 to draw the straight flush, right Mickey? I wrote that number before in this thread but it was overlooked.
Ive had similar dealt hands over all the years I've played video poker, and never once did the SF cards show up on the draw. Gosh, how many times have all of us been dealt four to the royal and the single draw card was a blank? You saw in the video that on one hand I was dealt three to the royal -- also a 1/1081 draw -- and that was a miss too.
The reason I posted my free play video was to show an example of real results. This isn't armchair gambling, but it certainly brought out the Monday Morning Quarterbacks.
The rationale for not holding three small SF cards is sound -- because even a pair doesn't pay. And as I said make the SF draw with one high card or two and that changes everything.
You call it the wrong play -- but it was the right play for me. I wanted to convert free play to cash. But I assure you if there were four dealt cards with only one card to draw (as in a dealt four card royal) I would have taken the 1/47 shot. But a 1/1081 shot with only forty hands to be played? No thanks.
Not to mention, a flush or straight (or 3 of a kind) can be hit when going for that Straight Flush.
The game has been “solved” but of course Alan knows best, a “special play” that gives him a better chance of hitting any winning hand must be better in this case than the mathematically correct play...
holding A 10 off J Q SS OVER JQSS
How does that cut down on variance?
That hand is even more baffling than the other one. It won't cut down on variance, all you do is limit yourself to inside str8's and pay pairs. That hand contradicts whatever Alan's excuses for why he played the other hand badly. Correct me if I'm wrong, but you have a way better chance of getting your money back with JQSS over the A high inside with 3 high cards.
He is being Asshole Mendlebread. He thinks nobody but him and Singer are the real life players on this board. He believes Free Play is different from cash. He believes Free Play changes what strategy should be. He believes that he saw 18 Yos in a row. He believes that we really care which we don't. He owes his Son money and has a daughter in trouble. I for one am not ever going to talk or try to help him again. He can go Screw.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dankyone
If a player only goes to the machines to pick up free play they run all sorts of risks these days. It works for his kind because after he picks up the Free Play he is going to the dice pit and Casinos don't bother dice players like him about anything. Stations aren't giving any trouble to this guy who deposits his monthly income at their tables. This pertains to Vegas in current conditions.
It never crossed my mind that using free play would change anyone’s play strategy...perhaps some people are as dumb as they appear.
The best part of all of this when you watch Mendlebread and Singer on Youtube... Singer will constantly tell you why you should only hold the lone Ace because he can't tell you how many times he has made quad Aces from that Hold so he changes basic math and theory to adjust to the anomaly. Now all of a sudden Mendlebread reverses the theory and can't comprehend that he can make two pair and three of a kind from this hold as well not to mention all the other hands that can be made that you all already spoke of. Not only all of this but he refuses to understand that the one gap SF Draw is better than the High Card.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dankyone
But Alan “plays perfectly” and the game pays 99.18%. LOL.
It is funny how one minute they go for the long shot and the next minute they go for the “safe” play....
8/5 bonus is probably a 97% game the way Alan plays it. Hard to believe he posted this video.
I know one guy (IRL) and have seen a poster on a forum that have some....very bad strategies and logic when it comes to freeplay. Both are supposedly APs, but I’m not convinced they can figure stuff out on their own...but if they’re spoon-fed something, they can do it.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dankyone
The first treated AP too much like a business and not enough like AP. So if he was ahead on something, he’d do more of that. If he was behind on something else, he wouldn’t play that anymore because “it’s not a money maker”. His logic was because free play isn’t actually money, but a “rebate”, that you should play it like a loss rebate and play the highest denomination you can. That way you either break even, worst case scenario, or you win big.
Then again, I he didn’t really know how variance works and was committed to the idea that the more you play, the less likely you are to be +/- 2 SDs, as if being down 2 SDs is less likely after 100,000 hands and more likely after 100 or 1,000 hands. Lots of other crazy shit he believed. (More stories if you’re interested, but doubt it.)
The other, who posts on another forum, thinks you should play the highest denomination possible. His logic, if you can call it that, is because video poker has a house edge, you want to play as little as possible. The more hands you play, the more likely the house edge is to catch up to you. So if you only play a few hands, the HE doesn’t have enough time to catch up to you, because of the long run.
They’re both assholes though. Hopefully the first loses all his money at the craps table and the second at the horsebook....but one can only hope! ��
You are correct its three in 1081 but still a long shot, isn't it? And how many chances do I have holding the lone queen to come up with a hand that will at least convert my free play into money I can cash out?Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimmIt's not 1 in 1081. It's 3 in 1081. In other words 1 in 360.3333. There are three combinations that make the straight flush. When holding 567suited you can catch 34, 48, 89.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan MendelsonI think the same thing after this discussion as I did after I had the same discussion with Rob Singer years ago. As I posted earlier, Rob also said the correct hold was the three SF cards. But the strategy I learned and followed is that you had a better chance getting your money back just holding the queen.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
Why do you raise the question about the odds of getting four of a kind? I was not holding the lone Q to get four of a kind. Honestly, I was running my free play through once to maximize the value of the free play. Holding the lone queen did that by giving me four chances to pair the Queen or draw another paying pair or better.
As I read years ago, holding three small SF cards was nothing but a long shot -- and a tremendous long shot. It's 1/1081 to draw the straight flush, right Mickey? I wrote that number before in this thread but it was overlooked.
Ive had similar dealt hands over all the years I've played video poker, and never once did the SF cards show up on the draw. Gosh, how many times have all of us been dealt four to the royal and the single draw card was a blank? You saw in the video that on one hand I was dealt three to the royal -- also a 1/1081 draw -- and that was a miss too.
The reason I posted my free play video was to show an example of real results. This isn't armchair gambling, but it certainly brought out the Monday Morning Quarterbacks.
The rationale for not holding three small SF cards is sound -- because even a pair doesn't pay. And as I said make the SF draw with one high card or two and that changes everything.
You call it the wrong play -- but it was the right play for me. I wanted to convert free play to cash. But I assure you if there were four dealt cards with only one card to draw (as in a dealt four card royal) I would have taken the 1/47 shot. But a 1/1081 shot with only forty hands to be played? No thanks.
I really must say I'm surprised that I gave you all such a wonderful opportunity to attack me. At worst I made an error playing correct strategy. At best, I followed a strategy to improve my chances of winning something.
I get $50 of free play again on Saturday, I'll post another video. I look forward to seeing your videos. Perhaps I'll learn something when I see them.
And why not change strategy?Quote:
Originally Posted by Dankyone
Suppose my free play was a single $50 bet at blackjack -- a game I don't play and really don't know. Suppose the casino had a special rule that says "if the first card dealt to you is a face card, we'll give you 75-percent of your bet to call it quits."
Since I know nothing about blackjack would I be wrong to accept that? Remember, I was given fifty dollars as a free bet at a game I don't know. My first card is a king. I just might call it quits for $37.50.
I never heard anyone call it the Horsebook... Ever!?!? In my entire Life!?Quote:
Originally Posted by RS__
Not even the Ploppies!?
In Vegas we call it the Racebook. Just like the Sportsbook... we don't call it the Footballbook!?
Now you could spell them Race Book and Sports Book as well if you like.
This reminds me of the tourists in a poker game saying they got Twos and Threes instead of Deuces and Treys.
In Vegas we call Twos... Deuces and Threes... Treys.
But what the Fuck do I know? You are the Top AP on these boards!
Doing all your good and spreading cheer with your Do Gooder Group of Friends.
You guys are so good you hang out at the Horsebook all day, I suppose, waiting to swoop in and help another lost soul.
Siri is Fucking Up Your Mind!
https://www.horsebooks.com.au/
https://www.google.com/search?q=hors...w=1920&bih=974
It does not matter if it is free play or your own cash.
No, you don’t know anything about blackjack.
The scenario you describe has nothing to do with your erroneous VP play.
Per the screen shot below, the variance is much less using Alan's strategy (you will see that this is unimportant if you read the rest of the post). Holding only JQ suited, the variance is about 32 times higher than the 4 card hold. However, even though the variance is higher (due to the NRF,StrFl, and 4ofaK possibilities) for the two-card hold, the player has a 38% chance of picking up a non-losing hand for the two-card hold versus a 28% chance of a non-losing hand for the 4-card straight-draw which is the important thing IMHO (along with the fact that the EV is also higher LOL). BTW, I totally get the fact that this post will have no influence on Alan's decision making when he encounters this sort of dealt hand out in the field.Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolf
Alan, at the start of your video you said that 8/5 Bonus Poker has a 99.17% return. That is only with optimum strategy. You definitely are not playing optimum strategy so in effect you are probably playing a 98% game.
Somehow I didn't realize this was a new thread, figured it was an old thread because it jumped me to page 5 or whatever...so I thought this was an old thread. I'm surprised no one caught this, though:
Where do you come up with this nonsense?Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
I guess he doesn't hold J 10 suited when the cards are something like (Jd 10d As 4h 6c)?Quote:
Originally Posted by tableplayPer the screen shot below, the variance is much less using Alan's strategy (you will see that this is unimportant if you read the rest of the post). Holding only JQ suited, the variance is about 32 times higher than the 4 card hold. However, even though the variance is higher (due to the NRF,StrFl, and 4ofaK possibilities) for the two-card hold, the player has a 38% chance of picking up a non-losing hand for the two-card hold versus a 28% chance of a non-losing hand for the 4-card straight-draw which is the important thing IMHO (along with the fact that the EV is also higher LOL). BTW, I totally get the fact that this post will have no influence on Alan's decision making when he encounters this sort of dealt hand out in the field.Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolf
I wouldn't doubt that he would just hold the lone Ace as well!?
What does he do with (Qd 10d As 4h 6c)??
I am losing interest though because he doesn't care to learn and change and the people who understand already know so I am just wasting my time.
When I first seen him post this thread I was going to watch the video and comment but I knew he was just baiting for attention and reactions.
I got involved and interested when Axelwolf broke his video down with 3 mistakes in 40 hands.
I lost interest again after he doesn't understand how strong 47-1 odds are when you are getting a max payout of 800-1 on your bet!
Not only that but you have plenty of outs to break even or get ahead on the wager even if you miss the big payday.
Even the ploppies understand and would make that bet all day long.
This should be engrained in everybody's head here. Guys like Singer and Alan try to convince people you can profit off these games at will, using sub-optimal strategy and/or some magical betting system. Therefore turning a 99% game into a 97% one. Sad thing is people actually believe this trash. Casino execs love you guys for it!!Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
Good lord! The expected value of a first card 10/face card in blackjack is 14% of wager. So if the casino is giving me 5 times that amount, I am on it. :cool:Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Alan, I appreciate that you frequently issue the disclaimer that "you don't play blackjack" or "don't know much about blackjack", but that doesn't stop you from talking an awful lot about blackjack and astonishingly almost everything you state is wrong. I would expect someone not knowing much about a particular topic to get some things correct and some things wrong. But seriously almost everything you say about blackjack is wrong. :confused:
When you use blackjack to make any point, you look rather foolish Alan. Either learn the game or stop using examples from blackjack.
Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
Well, yeah....THAT too.Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolfQuote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
Quote:
Originally Posted by monet
I suppose the next thing you are going to tell me Maiden races are for horses that have not yet been poodled. :cool:Quote:
Originally Posted by monet
That is not nonsense. The chance of a passline bet winning is 64%. And that includes the odds portion of the bet.Quote:
Originally Posted by RS__Somehow I didn't realize this was a new thread, figured it was an old thread because it jumped me to page 5 or whatever...so I thought this was an old thread. I'm surprised no one caught this, though:
Where do you come up with this nonsense?Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
You were a craps dealer, right? You know that the chance of winning is different from the house edge, right? The house edge on the "odds portion" is zero, but the house still has a greater chance of winning each and every time.
You're right, I shouldnt use blackjack as examples. I just think it's silly to use coin flips. LOLQuote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
Ouch! Now that HURT. Mendel, Mendel. :mad:lolQuote:
Originally Posted by Alan MendelsonYou're right, I shouldnt use blackjack as examples. I just think it's silly to use coin flips. LOLQuote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Sir, could you please explain exactly which bet you are referring to that you are claiming that either the house or the player's chance of winning is 64%
If you are talking about betting pass that is an even money payout on a win. So how could either the player or the house have that great of a probability of winning? Thank you.