When do "must hit" slots really hit?

Played a must hit slot for the first time last night.

This was a "must hit 5k" machine.

For those who aren't familiar, these are progressive machines with two jackpots which absolutely will hit before a specified number. They've been around for awhile, probably since the late 2000s. A must hit $5000 machine will have a jackpot which has to hit before it reaches $5000, and usually the second one will hit before it reaches $500. (It is stated on the machine the latest each jackpot "must hit".)

Obviously if you were to walk by a must hit $5000 machine with the counter at $4998, you'd be a fool not to sit down and run it until it hits, since you would have a guaranteed large win (there's no way you could lose anywhere close to $5000 in getting the meter to move up those final $2.)

After the jackpot hits, it resets to a lower value. The machine I played resets to $4000 after hitting.

The value where it "must hit" is auto-determined by the machine, via random number generator, every time it resets. So the machine knows the entire time when it will "hit", but the player doesn't know until it happens.

My question is the distribution of when the jackpot hits. I don't believe that it's randomly distributed evenly between $4000 and $5000 on the game I play, for example. Obviously it's to the casino's advantage to have the jackpot hit as late as possible. So I'm pretty convinced that it's disproportionately distributed at the end (by a wide margin), but to what extreme are we talking about?

I ask this because mine hit at $4999.31, which was laughable. Needless to say, I lost money attempting to get there. I can only imagine how much people will collectively lose on that machine for awhile, now that it's back at $4000.

Is it possible that my $4999.31 wasn't unusual, and perhaps something like 40% of all jackpots hit that late?

Anyone know the answer?

Dan thank you for posting this. Everyone who follows and believes the claims of the "must hit by APs" needs to read what you wrote.

Yes, APs need luck. They don't know if they will win unless they're making the very last bet in the progression.

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

Dan thank you for posting this. Everyone who follows and believes the claims of the "must hit by APs" needs to read what you wrote.

Yes, APs need luck. They don't know if they will win unless they're making the very last bet in the progression.

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As usual, you've got no clue what you're taking about. These machines can easily be figured out on when to jump on them and guarantee a profit. If Todd does some internet searching, he'll find his answers.

I imagine that it's skewed enough to discourage virtually all of the slot mechanics. A casino can't survive with "ploppies" who don't get any of the jackpots. There are well-know "extinction levels" after which people just stop playing, or go elsewhere.

You can be sure that Mickey doesn't tell us most of what goes on with the slots.

I don't play these games. As a matter of fact, I am just about out of all machine play.

But what is clear is that Alan, doesn't and never has understood the concept of playing with an advantage. Alan gets hung up on the short term. Playing with almost any advantage on any play doesn't guarantee a win in the short term. But if you do that same advantage play over and over, it will guarantee a win in the long-term.


This is just a distinction between Alan and AP's. Alan and most gamblers think short-term. AP's think in the long-term.

Alan didn't spend his life alone in a casino thinking he had any real edge.

And that rap kew is exactly why you are a total phony. Nothing is ever "guaranteed" and the fact that you say such a stupid thing only goes to show how you're nothing more than an anonymous internet forum showman.

I dare you to repeat that to any casino manager.

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Originally Posted by Rob.Singer

And that rap kew is exactly why you are a total phony. Nothing is ever "guaranteed" and the fact that you say such a stupid thing only goes to show how you're nothing more than an anonymous internet forum showman. I dare you to repeat that to any casino manager.

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The casino manager would likely respond as follows:

"The casino offers games all of which have an advantage which favors the casino. Over time they all give us a nice profit. Oh sure, there's variance but our success is never really in doubt."

So if the house can make such an unchallenged claim, why couldn't a player if he / she has a similar advantage over the house?

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

Played a must hit slot for the first time last night.

This was a "must hit 5k" machine.

For those who aren't familiar, these are progressive machines with two jackpots which absolutely will hit before a specified number. They've been around for awhile, probably since the late 2000s. A must hit $5000 machine will have a jackpot which has to hit before it reaches $5000, and usually the second one will hit before it reaches $500. (It is stated on the machine the latest each jackpot "must hit".)

Obviously if you were to walk by a must hit $5000 machine with the counter at $4998, you'd be a fool not to sit down and run it until it hits, since you would have a guaranteed large win (there's no way you could lose anywhere close to $5000 in getting the meter to move up those final $2.)

After the jackpot hits, it resets to a lower value. The machine I played resets to $4000 after hitting.

The value where it "must hit" is auto-determined by the machine, via random number generator, every time it resets. So the machine knows the entire time when it will "hit", but the player doesn't know until it happens.

My question is the distribution of when the jackpot hits. I don't believe that it's randomly distributed evenly between $4000 and $5000 on the game I play, for example. Obviously it's to the casino's advantage to have the jackpot hit as late as possible. So I'm pretty convinced that it's disproportionately distributed at the end (by a wide margin), but to what extreme are we talking about?

I ask this because mine hit at $4999.31, which was laughable. Needless to say, I lost money attempting to get there. I can only imagine how much people will collectively lose on that machine for awhile, now that it's back at $4000.

Is it possible that my $4999.31 wasn't unusual, and perhaps something like 40% of all jackpots hit that late?

Anyone know the answer?

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What was the jackpot at when you started playing it?

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Originally Posted by MisterV

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Originally Posted by Rob.Singer

And that rap kew is exactly why you are a total phony. Nothing is ever "guaranteed" and the fact that you say such a stupid thing only goes to show how you're nothing more than an anonymous internet forum showman. I dare you to repeat that to any casino manager.

---

The casino manager would likely respond as follows:

"The casino offers games all of which have an advantage which favors the casino. Over time they all give us a nice profit. Oh sure, there's variance but our success is never really in doubt."

So if the house can make such an unchallenged claim, why couldn't a player if he / she has a similar advantage over the house?

---

Excellent question!!!!!

I'll offer a couple of possible reasons why.

First, the casino has perhaps 2,000 or more games in play. How many games is the AP playing?

Second, the casino has a bigger bankroll. Do you really think a $100,000 AP bankroll is going to outlast a casino's bankroll?

The mistake that APs make (and understand this all of you gaming experts) is that the edge you think you have on one game isn't the same that the casino has on 2,000 games.

This is Barney,

Must hit slut machine devices are very fickle thing and extremely dangerous sluts. I have had many a fights with old ladies (one hit me with her oxygen tank) when these things become advantageous to play. According to my bestest friend Max Planck he told me "Herr Barnard, die Maschinen der Schlampenmaschine, die getroffen werden müssen, basieren auf der dreieckigen Reihe von Punkten, bei denen die höchsten Zahlen viel mehr gewichtet werden als die niedrigeren. Es basiert auf der dreieckigen Reihe, wenn 1, 3, 6, 10, 15 usw. Es ist am meisten wie bei Bernard, dass Sie möglicherweise warten müssen, bis er sich der Trefferzahl nähert, bevor er trifft. Es sei denn, Sie haben Glück, zu schlagen, bevor Ihre Gelder auslaufen. "

I hope this clarifies this most greatest question.

Singer actually asked the only important question, what did you start at? Then you need the meter movement, the base game return and you can start to calculate it.

Mickey and others have written so much on these machines with a road map on how to GUARANTEE a win. Or at what point you are playing with an advantage that will pay off over time, even with the occasional misfire.

It’s all Math, something that Alan just doesn’t understand. But he’s quick to get excited when someone loses on a game. And in this case, by Dan’s own admission, he really doesn’t know if he even had an advantage.

Maybe Mickey will answer but I think he has stated he is done trying to add quality information here as the site has become a joke. Not speaking for him but who can blame him?

Ironic that Dan is the one who needs help now after allowing it to get this bad here.

Let's get back on track here.

jbjb told me to search the answer for this. I already did, and while I found a few discussions, I wasn't coming up with the actual number you're looking for regarding the must hit $5000 machines.

I realize it's also influenced by where the second jackpot is (the $500 one), but I'm just looking for a rough answer.

Clearly playing it at $4995 is a guaranteed profit, no matter how bad you run (though you're highly unlikely to find this).

Clearly playing it when it's $4950 is +EV.

Clearly playing it when it's at $4700 is -EV.

So what about in between, such as the upper $4800s?

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

Dan thank you for posting this. Everyone who follows and believes the claims of the "must hit by APs" needs to read what you wrote.

Yes, APs need luck. They don't know if they will win unless they're making the very last bet in the progression.

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Simple hypothetical math Alan,if the meter moves a penny for every $1 played and major must hit by $5000. What must the machine be at to guarantee a minimum $1000 profit, assuming Zero base game hits, which is impossible.

If you need multiple choice let me know.

And no luck involved if the number is right.

Probably shouldn’t even be asking this, a smart man said never wise up a Chump.

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

Let's get back on track here.

jbjb told me to search the answer for this. I already did, and while I found a few discussions, I wasn't coming up with the actual number you're looking for regarding the must hit $5000 machines.

I realize it's also influenced by where the second jackpot is (the $500 one), but I'm just looking for a rough answer.

Clearly playing it at $4995 is a guaranteed profit, no matter how bad you run (though you're highly unlikely to find this).

Clearly playing it when it's $4950 is +EV.

Clearly playing it when it's at $4700 is -EV.

So what about in between, such as the upper $4800s?

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See if you can find any info in this thread:

https://vegascasinotalk.com/forum/sh...Must-Hits-quot

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

Let's get back on track here.

jbjb told me to search the answer for this. I already did, and while I found a few discussions, I wasn't coming up with the actual number you're looking for regarding the must hit $5000 machines.

I realize it's also influenced by where the second jackpot is (the $500 one), but I'm just looking for a rough answer.

Clearly playing it at $4995 is a guaranteed profit, no matter how bad you run (though you're highly unlikely to find this).

Clearly playing it when it's $4950 is +EV.

Clearly playing it when it's at $4700 is -EV.

So what about in between, such as the upper $4800s?

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Dan, what you haven’t answered is meter movement. It varies by machine including some that only move when you win.

You are a math guy in poker, why not think of a formula needed to make the determination?

And don’t be sure $4950 is always Clearly +EV.

Mickey has pretty much already covered this topic pretty extensively. You need to know meter start amounts, must hit by amounts, meter movement, and machine hold to get an answer that is specific.
Mickey has even discussed certain machine that are designed to hit at the latter part of there appeared range.

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Originally Posted by The Boz

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

Let's get back on track here.

jbjb told me to search the answer for this. I already did, and while I found a few discussions, I wasn't coming up with the actual number you're looking for regarding the must hit $5000 machines.

I realize it's also influenced by where the second jackpot is (the $500 one), but I'm just looking for a rough answer.

Clearly playing it at $4995 is a guaranteed profit, no matter how bad you run (though you're highly unlikely to find this).

Clearly playing it when it's $4950 is +EV.

Clearly playing it when it's at $4700 is -EV.

So what about in between, such as the upper $4800s?

---

Dan, what you haven’t answered is meter movement. It varies by machine including some that only move when you win.

You are a math guy in poker, why not think of a formula needed to make the determination?

And don’t be sure $4950 is always Clearly +EV.

---

I didn't know that meter movement varies that much from machine to machine of the same must-hit level. I am new to this.

But still, even knowing meter movement, you are still missing a variable -- the hold of the machine. Otherwise you still don't have enough information. Meter movement alone can only be used to figure out the point where you're in guaranteed win territory, but finding such a machine would be a fluke nowadays.

Have you seen a $5k must hit where $4950 isn't +EV? It's not guaranteed win, but I would assume it would have to be +EV.

I'm deleting some of the recent troll/arguing posts in this thread.

Please take it elsewhere.

I feel that rigging the must-hit number to the very end of the range should be illegal.

It isn't, but it should be. Highly unethical, to be honest.

It's not even necessary to do. They could easily give the ploppies a chance by making it completely random where it hits from its starting point of $4000 to its ending point of $5000. Then they could adjust the odds of the rest of the machine accordingly, to where they still get the desired house hold.

I'm guessing it's severely weighted to hit in the final $10, probably weighted even more to hit in the final $3. There are probably very rare fluke hits before $4850, but for the most part, I'm guessing it almost never happens.

I was watching ploppies running the other machines with meters at $4630 and $335, and I just felt so bad for them. They were chasing something which had almost no chance to hit (even the small one), yet their reward for a fluke early hit wasn't even that large.

The problem is that there's no regulation for this sort of thing, because jackpots don't have to hit at any particular frequency. Remember that machine at MGM which took over 20 years to hit? So offering a "must hit" jackpot supposedly at least gives that guarantee to the player, and appears player-friendly. In reality, it's anything but.

Dan come on now. What's illegal about a machine that must hit by $5,000 and goes all the way to $5,000 ?

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

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Originally Posted by MisterV

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Originally Posted by Rob.Singer

And that rap kew is exactly why you are a total phony. Nothing is ever "guaranteed" and the fact that you say such a stupid thing only goes to show how you're nothing more than an anonymous internet forum showman. I dare you to repeat that to any casino manager.

---

The casino manager would likely respond as follows:

"The casino offers games all of which have an advantage which favors the casino. Over time they all give us a nice profit. Oh sure, there's variance but our success is never really in doubt."

So if the house can make such an unchallenged claim, why couldn't a player if he / she has a similar advantage over the house?

---

Excellent question!!!!!

I'll offer a couple of possible reasons why.

First, the casino has perhaps 2,000 or more games in play. How many games is the AP playing?

Second, the casino has a bigger bankroll. Do you really think a $100,000 AP bankroll is going to outlast a casino's bankroll?

The mistake that APs make (and understand this all of you gaming experts) is that the edge you think you have on one game isn't the same that the casino has on 2,000 games.

---

Yes, APs do often underestimate the bankroll and variance requirements to show a profit. They also sometimes underestimate expense if they are traveling the country for plays.

There's also the factor of losing out on "earned" EV. For example, if your play is based upon freeplay earned, but you get trespassed or no-offered, then your +EV play has just become retroactively -EV. And that's happened to me more than once.

Still, Alan is being too dismissive of AP. You don't need a bankroll the equivalent of a large casino to show a reliable profit as an AP. Indeed, if you are running enough plays which are enough +EV, you will eventually show a profit, as long as you're not being overaggressive with your bankroll, and if you don't put too many eggs in a few baskets. (I know of some peope who will take huge variance shots at a certain type of play, and then the rest of the time stick to smaller and medium stuff, and that can go bad very quickly.)

I still think Alan dismisses AP because he doesn't do it, so therefore he rationalizes to himself that it's a waste of time and a money loser.

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

Dan come on now. What's illegal about a machine that must hit by $5,000 and goes all the way to $5,000 ?

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Nothing is illegal about it. But it should be illegal for the casino to imply that it can hit any time but "must hit" by $5000, when in reality it's going to hit at $4990+ most of the time.

If there was a sign on the machine stating, "Must hit by $5000, but it is very unlikely you will see it hit before $4900", would many ploppies play it when it's at the $4600 level? Obviously not.

So there's an amount of indirect deception involved here.

People only play these machines believing they have a realistic shot to hit the jackpot, when in most cases, I don't believe they do.

Dan, I suspect you were playing a machine made by AGS. Probably had a name like River Dragons, Forest Dragons, Fire Wolf or Wolf Queen. These games always run to at least $4990. If you play anything lower than $4930 you will most likely get in for more than it pays. I wrote about it in another thread. But anyways, feed me some information and we'll analyze the situation.

1. What was the name of the game? Manufacturer?
2. What was your starting number? Right to the penny would be nice but just the dollar amount will suffice.
3. I already know it ran you to $4999.31
4. Do you know the meter speed? If it was one of the games I named above I already know it runs at 0.26666%
5. Exactly how much money did you lose? This is important in calculating the drop.

If you can give me this information I can tell you what happened.

Frankly Dan, every time you play a machine with a sign that says it "must hit by" the casino is giving you a gift.

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

Dan come on now. What's illegal about a machine that must hit by $5,000 and goes all the way to $5,000 ?

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Nothing is illegal about it. But it should be illegal for the casino to imply that it can hit any time but "must hit" by $5000, when in reality it's going to hit at $4990+ most of the time.

If there was a sign on the machine stating, "Must hit by $5000, but it is very unlikely you will see it hit before $4900", would many ploppies play it when it's at the $4600 level? Obviously not.

So there's an amount of indirect deception involved here.

People only play these machines believing they have a realistic shot to hit the jackpot, when in most cases, I don't believe they do.

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The fact you understand this makes you not a ploppy. Ploppies are needed for machine AP to exist. Embrace but recognize the deception and then exploit the situation for your benefit.

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

... and if you don't put too many eggs in a few baskets.

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One bankroll for one purpose for the Kelly Criterion.

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Originally Posted by MaxPen

The fact you understand this makes you not a ploppy. Ploppies are needed for machine AP to exist. Embrace but recognize the deception and then exploit the situation for your benefit.

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Sorry, but this just sounds so simple-minded. Crazy in a way.

Dan since you didn't reveal your entry point (unless I missed it) I suggest you consult with mickeycrimm before playing.

As I said the must hit by number is a gift from the casino. But mickeycrimm can tell you when it becomes playable.

What MaxPen wrote was wordy but correct.

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Originally Posted by Bill Yung

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Originally Posted by MaxPen

The fact you understand this makes you not a ploppy. Ploppies are needed for machine AP to exist. Embrace but recognize the deception and then exploit the situation for your benefit.

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Sorry, but this just sounds so simple-minded. Crazy in a way.

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The point of philosophy is to start with something really simple, as to seem not worth stating and to end with something so paradoxical no one believes it. You spend too much time in this world and it blinds you to the many opportunities that surround you.

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

Dan, I suspect you were playing a machine made by AGS. Probably had a name like River Dragons, Forest Dragons, Fire Wolf or Wolf Queen. These games always run to at least $4990. If you play anything lower than $4930 you will most likely get in for more than it pays. I wrote about it in another thread. But anyways, feed me some information and we'll analyze the situation.

1. What was the name of the game? Manufacturer?
2. What was your starting number? Right to the penny would be nice but just the dollar amount will suffice.
3. I already know it ran you to $4999.31
4. Do you know the meter speed? If it was one of the games I named above I already know it runs at 0.26666%
5. Exactly how much money did you lose? This is important in calculating the drop.

If you can give me this information I can tell you what happened.

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It was River Dragons. You're correct.

Starting number was $4870.

Don't know the meter speed. Should have paid attention but didn't.

I lost $1800, but $1000 of it was freeplay. Or, more accurately put, I lost $6800 in credits, but got $5000 back at the end (obviously), and $1000 was also freeplay, so I lost a real $800.

If it matters, I was actually doing okay until about the $4980 mark. At that point, I was $4300 in, and only $3300 of "real" money since $1k of that was freeplay.

The final $19 on the meter set me back $2500.

So ignoring which was freeplay and which wasn't, I lost $4300 moving the meter $110, and $2500 moving it the final $19. I also wondered if that was rigged in some way (or if that's even legal.)

Also the $500 must hit secondary meter was at like $460, and that moved faster. So that was going to hit on the way, fairly early, which it did. Though I'm not sure if the secondary started at $200 if I would have hit it at all throughout the cycle I did. It moves faster, but not sure if it's fast enough to cycle through once if starting at $200. I mention this because it was destined to hit once and only once for sure, while I was playing, in which case the timing of hitting didn't matter unless there was a chance it would miss completely if low.

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

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Originally Posted by MisterV

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Originally Posted by Rob.Singer

And that rap kew is exactly why you are a total phony. Nothing is ever "guaranteed" and the fact that you say such a stupid thing only goes to show how you're nothing more than an anonymous internet forum showman. I dare you to repeat that to any casino manager.

---

The casino manager would likely respond as follows:

"The casino offers games all of which have an advantage which favors the casino. Over time they all give us a nice profit. Oh sure, there's variance but our success is never really in doubt."

So if the house can make such an unchallenged claim, why couldn't a player if he / she has a similar advantage over the house?

---

Excellent question!!!!!

I'll offer a couple of possible reasons why.

First, the casino has perhaps 2,000 or more games in play. How many games is the AP playing?

Second, the casino has a bigger bankroll. Do you really think a $100,000 AP bankroll is going to outlast a casino's bankroll?

The mistake that APs make (and understand this all of you gaming experts) is that the edge you think you have on one game isn't the same that the casino has on 2,000 games.

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Give me +110 odds on a fair coin flip and I’ll take Bill Gates’ & Elon Musk’s net worth, no problem. Of course, I strongly doubt they’d lay -110.



@Dan - I don’t play must hits, at least not much. Occasionally I’ll see something that’s decent/good and I’ll play it, although that’s mostly just to put a bit of slot play on my card for cheap. If there’s a $5k must hit that’s at a good number, then I’m obviously going to play it (I just haven’t found one that was open :/ ). I did see one guy slamming a $5k must hit one time. It was at something like $4990 when I walked by and I didn’t have anything else to do for a few minutes and watched. He ended up hitting it at $4998.

I don’t know how it’s figured when it’s going to hit, like if the machine determines it when the prog gets reset (as in, the machine “knows” it’s going to hit at $4,753.29) or if it’s a 1-in-X chance to hit every spin. I’ll ask someone whom I know is really good with slots and stuff and see if he knows how it’s determined or if it can be weighted closer to $5k or if it has to be hit at a random point without weight.


I just noticed you said it was at $4870 when you sat down on it. To me, that still seems pretty low, but I don’t really know much about progressives. My guess is it’s a small edge.

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Originally Posted by Rob.Singer

And that rap kew is exactly why you are a total phony. Nothing is ever "guaranteed" and the fact that you say such a stupid thing only goes to show how you're nothing more than an anonymous internet forum showman.

I dare you to repeat that to any casino manager.

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So the casinos should all shut down since there is no guarantee that they will ever show a profit (from gaming) moving forward from any given point in time ?

Those of you interested in must hits should hang out at any of the Station Casinos in Vegas. All of their machines are tied into a must hit by $20,000 jackpot. Any machine could be picked at random. All other players at the time of the jackpot get free play up to $100.

That must hit had come as low as just above $10,000 (the starting point) to just under $20,000. They say it's totally random. But when I see it above $19,800 you won't find an empty machine at Red Rock.

deleted. duplicate.

Thanks, Dan. Okay, so now I have some numbers to work with. Instead of "must hits" we refer to the AGS games like River Dragons as "will go to's." The 5K meter never hits before 4990. And the 500 meter almost never hits before 490. In rare cases it will hit in the 480's.

In the future, if you want to know whether it's random or not then check the name of the manufacturer. If it's Konami, WMS or Ainsworth it's random and a number like 4870 would be super strong. But with AGS 4870 is way low. Its why you got the play. AP's that have experience with them know not to play that low.

Okay, so the meter ran you from 4870 to 4999.31. The 5K meter speed on every River Dragon I've ever clocked has always been 0.26666%. I'm sure the one you played was the same. I've encountered two different meter speeds on the 500, 0.375% and 0.4%. But it's irrelevant here. Since you didn't say what the number was when the 500 hit I'm going to use an average number, 495. I need this number to calculate the drop in the main game.

The first thing we're going to do is calculate your total wager. If we divide 1 by 0.26666% we get 375 dollars. Thats the amount of action it takes to drive the meter $1. You drove the meter $129.31 (4999.31 minus 4870).

129.31 X 375 means your total wager was $48,491. Oh, boy. That's huge compared to the 5K payoff.

Since you lost $1800 we can now calculate the actual payback percentage.

1800 + 4991 + 495 = 7286

7286/48491 = 15%

Your actual payoff was 4991 + 495 = 5486.

I have about 50K in action tracked on this game and got dropped for 17% so you ran 2% better than me.

These games always come down to the wager against the drop. Even though my stats say 17% I always figure the drop at 20% to be on the safe side. I don't want to run more than 26K in action so my playable number on these AGS games is 4930. If it runs me to the top:

70 X 375 = 26,250

At a 26K wager the payoff, 5K, is 19% of the total wager. In your case the 5K was just 10.3% of the total wager.

With competition from other AP's it's hard to find a number that high. Some AP's will play a little lower number figuring to generate freeplay offers. And even ploppies get roped into running it to the top when they've started it to low, consequently losing a lot of money.

But depending on where you played it at you may have generated enough action to get a bunch of freeplay offers.

PS: I consider the AGS 5K's to be immoral for faking people into believing they have a chance to hit it below 4990 but I can't really do anything about it. I just exploit the situation when I see it.

Thanks Mick for the breakdown!

I think you said it best when you said they may be immoral but they are doing exactly what the manufacturer and casino want. Ploppies are playing them thinking they have an advantage and most times don’t have an advantage and are underfunded. It’s just more opportunity for you and others as you said.

I believe there was a discussion a while back on WoV on how the designers program these machines and how it’s legal.

Good job Mickey. But I don't see anything immoral about these games being set to hit in a narrow band near 5K. As I said before this info is a gift from the casino to the players.

By the way, there are smaller payoffs as well throughout the runup of the meters, right?

This is Barney,

I most certainly believe more light is needed to clear heads of those personages who lack the clear thinking in this matter. The original question from the most greatest Mr. Druff was regarding how the winning number was chosen implying it didn't seem to be random regardless of the meter movements and other factors which seemed very unfair to those of less intellegences. As stated by the most greatest Mr. Planck, for these "must hit" slut machine devices, the must hit number is in fact is chosen randomly by the RNG but it is biased because of the weighted distribution of numbers that the RNG has to choose from.

One more thing about the AGS games is I believe AGS is a "class II" (bingo-based) manufacturer.

What that means is that the game does not determine the payout based on an RNG determining where the displayed reels line up. The reels are for decoration only.

The actual payout is determined by a bingo game where a certain bingo pattern must be hit in a certain number of balls, and there is usually a minor payout that goes to the "winner" of the bingo game (at the moment you spin, everyone else in the casino playing a similar machine is simultaneously playing the same bingo game)

Usually these are either displayed on a small separate window that shows the card and balls or there is an option in the onscreen menu to view in "bingo mode".

I watched one of those machines right before the weekend. Came again middle of next week and was surprised it only went from nearly $450 to $480 (approximately) considering the hopefuls who kept pounding it. I did also notice that on some big hits the meter sped up while on others it hardly moved. Lesson learned.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by slingshot

I watched one of those machines right before the weekend. Came again middle of next week and was surprised it only went from nearly $450 to $480 (approximately) considering the hopefuls who kept pounding it. I did also notice that on some big hits the meter sped up while on others it hardly moved. Lesson learned.

---

That’s an older WMS machine that only moves on wins. They are usually $50/$500 Minor /Major

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by MaxPen

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Bill Yung

Quote:

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Originally Posted by MaxPen

The fact you understand this makes you not a ploppy. Ploppies are needed for machine AP to exist. Embrace but recognize the deception and then exploit the situation for your benefit.

---

Sorry, but this just sounds so simple-minded. Crazy in a way.

---

The point of philosophy is to start with something really simple, as to seem not worth stating and to end with something so paradoxical no one believes it. You spend too much time in this world and it blinds you to the many opportunities that surround you.

---

Yes, all philosophical truths are supposed to be simple truths. Science came along to remove every single one of those simple truths. Every area of study, even religion, another branch of philosophy, involves some type and degree of paradox (ha, where type is degree, of course). Physics has its own set paradoxes, the same as math. Wave-particle duality, and infinity as a number to complete or close the real numbers, which is an end but not an end.

Do you see what I'm getting at? Paradox is more a way to connect every area of study, than something that arises out of any particular area of study, let alone just out of philosophy, whatever that is. A "theory of everything" may be about only how to connect every thing, more than per se a new theory or discovery of its own.

What if the real numbers actually are only three-dimensional instead of there being as many in any dimension you may pick, or may be taken as three-dimensional only for the purposes of such a "new" theory of everything, and, can thus be reunited with the other types of numbers through such a theory or other way of thinking? Four-dimensional numbers (Quaternions) could really be another sort of four-dimensional space-time, ie, complex space-time, only so well mixed with also the reals that we can not differentiate the two by experiment, not even by thought experiment.

Are there not many mathematical interpretations of something like 2/0? Is there a similar method to connect those interpretations, without ruling any as the right interpretation?

Yes, modern philosophy has concerned itself with the paradoxes of math and science. What of the connection between paradox, itself, and math and science? One resolves the other.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

Thanks, Dan. Okay, so now I have some numbers to work with. Instead of "must hits" we refer to the AGS games like River Dragons as "will go to's." The 5K meter never hits before 4990. And the 500 meter almost never hits before 490. In rare cases it will hit in the 480's.

In the future, if you want to know whether it's random or not then check the name of the manufacturer. If it's Konami, WMS or Ainsworth it's random and a number like 4870 would be super strong. But with AGS 4870 is way low. Its why you got the play. AP's that have experience with them know not to play that low.

Okay, so the meter ran you from 4870 to 4999.31. The 5K meter speed on every River Dragon I've ever clocked has always been 0.26666%. I'm sure the one you played was the same. I've encountered two different meter speeds on the 500, 0.375% and 0.4%. But it's irrelevant here. Since you didn't say what the number was when the 500 hit I'm going to use an average number, 495. I need this number to calculate the drop in the main game.

The first thing we're going to do is calculate your total wager. If we divide 1 by 0.26666% we get 375 dollars. Thats the amount of action it takes to drive the meter $1. You drove the meter $129.31 (4999.31 minus 4870).

129.31 X 375 means your total wager was $48,491. Oh, boy. That's huge compared to the 5K payoff.

Since you lost $1800 we can now calculate the actual payback percentage.

1800 + 4991 + 495 = 7286

7286/48491 = 15%

Your actual payoff was 4991 + 495 = 5486.

I have about 50K in action tracked on this game and got dropped for 17% so you ran 2% better than me.

These games always come down to the wager against the drop. Even though my stats say 17% I always figure the drop at 20% to be on the safe side. I don't want to run more than 26K in action so my playable number on these AGS games is 4930. If it runs me to the top:

70 X 375 = 26,250

At a 26K wager the payoff, 5K, is 19% of the total wager. In your case the 5K was just 10.3% of the total wager.

With competition from other AP's it's hard to find a number that high. Some AP's will play a little lower number figuring to generate freeplay offers. And even ploppies get roped into running it to the top when they've started it to low, consequently losing a lot of money.

But depending on where you played it at you may have generated enough action to get a bunch of freeplay offers.

PS: I consider the AGS 5K's to be immoral for faking people into believing they have a chance to hit it below 4990 but I can't really do anything about it. I just exploit the situation when I see it.

---

mickey, there's one more piece of information Dan didn't provide that may or may not change your figures. I've read on forums several times that when playing free play on some progressives (or maybe all?) the meter doesn't move until the free play is exhausted and real money is used. Sort of similar to how points may or may not be accumulated.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Barney

This is Barney,

I most certainly believe more light is needed to clear heads of those personages who lack the clear thinking in this matter. The original question from the most greatest Mr. Druff was regarding how the winning number was chosen implying it didn't seem to be random regardless of the meter movements and other factors which seemed very unfair to those of less intellegences. As stated by the most greatest Mr. Planck, for these "must hit" slut machine devices, the must hit number is in fact is chosen randomly by the RNG but it is biased because of the weighted distribution of numbers that the RNG has to choose from.

---

Yes Barney, for those that don't know German it is also good to post it in English. In statistics one might say that X (the value at which the $500 River Dragon progressive is hit) is a non-uniform randomly distributed variable. Most likely a step function similar to:
X< 492 having p(hit)~0
and
X>=492 having p(hit) ~ 1/{(500-x)+1}

Now that I think about it, I believe what I wrote about free play not moving some meters was in Frank's book.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Rob.Singer

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

Thanks, Dan. Okay, so now I have some numbers to work with. Instead of "must hits" we refer to the AGS games like River Dragons as "will go to's." The 5K meter never hits before 4990. And the 500 meter almost never hits before 490. In rare cases it will hit in the 480's.

In the future, if you want to know whether it's random or not then check the name of the manufacturer. If it's Konami, WMS or Ainsworth it's random and a number like 4870 would be super strong. But with AGS 4870 is way low. Its why you got the play. AP's that have experience with them know not to play that low.

Okay, so the meter ran you from 4870 to 4999.31. The 5K meter speed on every River Dragon I've ever clocked has always been 0.26666%. I'm sure the one you played was the same. I've encountered two different meter speeds on the 500, 0.375% and 0.4%. But it's irrelevant here. Since you didn't say what the number was when the 500 hit I'm going to use an average number, 495. I need this number to calculate the drop in the main game.

The first thing we're going to do is calculate your total wager. If we divide 1 by 0.26666% we get 375 dollars. Thats the amount of action it takes to drive the meter $1. You drove the meter $129.31 (4999.31 minus 4870).

129.31 X 375 means your total wager was $48,491. Oh, boy. That's huge compared to the 5K payoff.

Since you lost $1800 we can now calculate the actual payback percentage.

1800 + 4991 + 495 = 7286

7286/48491 = 15%

Your actual payoff was 4991 + 495 = 5486.

I have about 50K in action tracked on this game and got dropped for 17% so you ran 2% better than me.

These games always come down to the wager against the drop. Even though my stats say 17% I always figure the drop at 20% to be on the safe side. I don't want to run more than 26K in action so my playable number on these AGS games is 4930. If it runs me to the top:

70 X 375 = 26,250

At a 26K wager the payoff, 5K, is 19% of the total wager. In your case the 5K was just 10.3% of the total wager.

With competition from other AP's it's hard to find a number that high. Some AP's will play a little lower number figuring to generate freeplay offers. And even ploppies get roped into running it to the top when they've started it to low, consequently losing a lot of money.

But depending on where you played it at you may have generated enough action to get a bunch of freeplay offers.

PS: I consider the AGS 5K's to be immoral for faking people into believing they have a chance to hit it below 4990 but I can't really do anything about it. I just exploit the situation when I see it.

---

mickey, there's one more piece of information Dan didn't provide that may or may not change your figures. I've read on forums several times that when playing free play on some progressives (or maybe all?) the meter doesn't move until the free play is exhausted and real money is used. Sort of similar to how points may or may not be accumulated.

---

That's a good point Rob. I dont think it would have that big of an effect since it was only 1k in free play.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by AxelWolf

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Rob.Singer

Quote:

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

Thanks, Dan. Okay, so now I have some numbers to work with. Instead of "must hits" we refer to the AGS games like River Dragons as "will go to's." The 5K meter never hits before 4990. And the 500 meter almost never hits before 490. In rare cases it will hit in the 480's.

In the future, if you want to know whether it's random or not then check the name of the manufacturer. If it's Konami, WMS or Ainsworth it's random and a number like 4870 would be super strong. But with AGS 4870 is way low. Its why you got the play. AP's that have experience with them know not to play that low.

Okay, so the meter ran you from 4870 to 4999.31. The 5K meter speed on every River Dragon I've ever clocked has always been 0.26666%. I'm sure the one you played was the same. I've encountered two different meter speeds on the 500, 0.375% and 0.4%. But it's irrelevant here. Since you didn't say what the number was when the 500 hit I'm going to use an average number, 495. I need this number to calculate the drop in the main game.

The first thing we're going to do is calculate your total wager. If we divide 1 by 0.26666% we get 375 dollars. Thats the amount of action it takes to drive the meter $1. You drove the meter $129.31 (4999.31 minus 4870).

129.31 X 375 means your total wager was $48,491. Oh, boy. That's huge compared to the 5K payoff.

Since you lost $1800 we can now calculate the actual payback percentage.

1800 + 4991 + 495 = 7286

7286/48491 = 15%

Your actual payoff was 4991 + 495 = 5486.

I have about 50K in action tracked on this game and got dropped for 17% so you ran 2% better than me.

These games always come down to the wager against the drop. Even though my stats say 17% I always figure the drop at 20% to be on the safe side. I don't want to run more than 26K in action so my playable number on these AGS games is 4930. If it runs me to the top:

70 X 375 = 26,250

At a 26K wager the payoff, 5K, is 19% of the total wager. In your case the 5K was just 10.3% of the total wager.

With competition from other AP's it's hard to find a number that high. Some AP's will play a little lower number figuring to generate freeplay offers. And even ploppies get roped into running it to the top when they've started it to low, consequently losing a lot of money.

But depending on where you played it at you may have generated enough action to get a bunch of freeplay offers.

PS: I consider the AGS 5K's to be immoral for faking people into believing they have a chance to hit it below 4990 but I can't really do anything about it. I just exploit the situation when I see it.

---

mickey, there's one more piece of information Dan didn't provide that may or may not change your figures. I've read on forums several times that when playing free play on some progressives (or maybe all?) the meter doesn't move until the free play is exhausted and real money is used. Sort of similar to how points may or may not be accumulated.

---

That's a good point Rob. I dont think it would have that big of an effect since it was only 1k in free play.

---

I associate myself with the business world first and foremost. In such a format and with mathematical analyses, every factor needs to be addressed. It may not make a big difference, but accuracy is important.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by pepe

One more thing about the AGS games is I believe AGS is a "class II" (bingo-based) manufacturer.

What that means is that the game does not determine the payout based on an RNG determining where the displayed reels line up. The reels are for decoration only.

The actual payout is determined by a bingo game where a certain bingo pattern must be hit in a certain number of balls, and there is usually a minor payout that goes to the "winner" of the bingo game (at the moment you spin, everyone else in the casino playing a similar machine is simultaneously playing the same bingo game)

Usually these are either displayed on a small separate window that shows the card and balls or there is an option in the onscreen menu to view in "bingo mode".

---

AGS has moved into the Class III market. River Dragons are Class III. They are the first I've seen that weight the progressives to a very high level. The rest of the Class III manufacturers produce games where it's random when the progressive hits.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by slingshot

I watched one of those machines right before the weekend. Came again middle of next week and was surprised it only went from nearly $450 to $480 (approximately) considering the hopefuls who kept pounding it. I did also notice that on some big hits the meter sped up while on others it hardly moved. Lesson learned.

---

You were watching a WMS game. Their meter movement is based on coin out.

Edit: Boz already gave you the correct information.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Rob.Singer

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

Thanks, Dan. Okay, so now I have some numbers to work with. Instead of "must hits" we refer to the AGS games like River Dragons as "will go to's." The 5K meter never hits before 4990. And the 500 meter almost never hits before 490. In rare cases it will hit in the 480's.

In the future, if you want to know whether it's random or not then check the name of the manufacturer. If it's Konami, WMS or Ainsworth it's random and a number like 4870 would be super strong. But with AGS 4870 is way low. Its why you got the play. AP's that have experience with them know not to play that low.

Okay, so the meter ran you from 4870 to 4999.31. The 5K meter speed on every River Dragon I've ever clocked has always been 0.26666%. I'm sure the one you played was the same. I've encountered two different meter speeds on the 500, 0.375% and 0.4%. But it's irrelevant here. Since you didn't say what the number was when the 500 hit I'm going to use an average number, 495. I need this number to calculate the drop in the main game.

The first thing we're going to do is calculate your total wager. If we divide 1 by 0.26666% we get 375 dollars. Thats the amount of action it takes to drive the meter $1. You drove the meter $129.31 (4999.31 minus 4870).

129.31 X 375 means your total wager was $48,491. Oh, boy. That's huge compared to the 5K payoff.

Since you lost $1800 we can now calculate the actual payback percentage.

1800 + 4991 + 495 = 7286

7286/48491 = 15%

Your actual payoff was 4991 + 495 = 5486.

I have about 50K in action tracked on this game and got dropped for 17% so you ran 2% better than me.

These games always come down to the wager against the drop. Even though my stats say 17% I always figure the drop at 20% to be on the safe side. I don't want to run more than 26K in action so my playable number on these AGS games is 4930. If it runs me to the top:

70 X 375 = 26,250

At a 26K wager the payoff, 5K, is 19% of the total wager. In your case the 5K was just 10.3% of the total wager.

With competition from other AP's it's hard to find a number that high. Some AP's will play a little lower number figuring to generate freeplay offers. And even ploppies get roped into running it to the top when they've started it to low, consequently losing a lot of money.

But depending on where you played it at you may have generated enough action to get a bunch of freeplay offers.

PS: I consider the AGS 5K's to be immoral for faking people into believing they have a chance to hit it below 4990 but I can't really do anything about it. I just exploit the situation when I see it.

---

mickey, there's one more piece of information Dan didn't provide that may or may not change your figures. I've read on forums several times that when playing free play on some progressives (or maybe all?) the meter doesn't move until the free play is exhausted and real money is used. Sort of similar to how points may or may not be accumulated.

---

Freeplay should move the meter since it's coin in. In most places freeplay won't put points on your card so we could have the two tangled up. It's something I'll have to check next time I get the chance.

I've been trading information with someone who operates in the midwest. He and his buddies have spun off 10 River Dragons or their variants in the last week. He told me today that the lowest he got dropped on a play is 3% and the highest is 19%. I personally think its around a 90% game and the progressives don't represent more than a couple percent of the payback.

This is Barney,

The Mickey is most correct. This is bad slot machine to play since it is coin in and moves like a snail unless personage gets lucky.


http://i65.tinypic.com/2lt569x.jpg

This is Barney,

Now two years ago in the Las Vegas, the LID got hold of casino security video on his supper computer which shows how dangerous good slut machine devices can be. I found an IGT "must hit" at $499.22 which I tried to play but old lady ran out from another row of machine and beat the shits out of me so she could win the monies. Thank God for the Obama care.


http://i64.tinypic.com/kasewj.jpg

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Barney

This is Barney,

Now two years ago in the Las Vegas, the LID got hold of casino security video on his supper computer which shows how dangerous good slut machine devices can be. I found an IGT "must hit" at $499.22 which I tried to play but old lady ran out from another row of machine and beat the shits out of me so she could win the monies. Thank God for the Obama care.


http://i64.tinypic.com/kasewj.jpg

---

LOL!

That's no old lady, it's Singer, in drag.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Rob.Singer

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

Thanks, Dan. Okay, so now I have some numbers to work with. Instead of "must hits" we refer to the AGS games like River Dragons as "will go to's." The 5K meter never hits before 4990. And the 500 meter almost never hits before 490. In rare cases it will hit in the 480's.

In the future, if you want to know whether it's random or not then check the name of the manufacturer. If it's Konami, WMS or Ainsworth it's random and a number like 4870 would be super strong. But with AGS 4870 is way low. Its why you got the play. AP's that have experience with them know not to play that low.

Okay, so the meter ran you from 4870 to 4999.31. The 5K meter speed on every River Dragon I've ever clocked has always been 0.26666%. I'm sure the one you played was the same. I've encountered two different meter speeds on the 500, 0.375% and 0.4%. But it's irrelevant here. Since you didn't say what the number was when the 500 hit I'm going to use an average number, 495. I need this number to calculate the drop in the main game.

The first thing we're going to do is calculate your total wager. If we divide 1 by 0.26666% we get 375 dollars. Thats the amount of action it takes to drive the meter $1. You drove the meter $129.31 (4999.31 minus 4870).

129.31 X 375 means your total wager was $48,491. Oh, boy. That's huge compared to the 5K payoff.

Since you lost $1800 we can now calculate the actual payback percentage.

1800 + 4991 + 495 = 7286

7286/48491 = 15%

Your actual payoff was 4991 + 495 = 5486.

I have about 50K in action tracked on this game and got dropped for 17% so you ran 2% better than me.

These games always come down to the wager against the drop. Even though my stats say 17% I always figure the drop at 20% to be on the safe side. I don't want to run more than 26K in action so my playable number on these AGS games is 4930. If it runs me to the top:

70 X 375 = 26,250

At a 26K wager the payoff, 5K, is 19% of the total wager. In your case the 5K was just 10.3% of the total wager.

With competition from other AP's it's hard to find a number that high. Some AP's will play a little lower number figuring to generate freeplay offers. And even ploppies get roped into running it to the top when they've started it to low, consequently losing a lot of money.

But depending on where you played it at you may have generated enough action to get a bunch of freeplay offers.

PS: I consider the AGS 5K's to be immoral for faking people into believing they have a chance to hit it below 4990 but I can't really do anything about it. I just exploit the situation when I see it.

---

mickey, there's one more piece of information Dan didn't provide that may or may not change your figures. I've read on forums several times that when playing free play on some progressives (or maybe all?) the meter doesn't move until the free play is exhausted and real money is used. Sort of similar to how points may or may not be accumulated.

---

Freeplay should move the meter since it's coin in. In most places freeplay won't put points on your card so we could have the two tangled up. It's something I'll have to check next time I get the chance.

I've been trading information with someone who operates in the midwest. He and his buddies have spun off 10 River Dragons or their variants in the last week. He told me today that the lowest he got dropped on a play is 3% and the highest is 19%. I personally think its around a 90% game and the progressives don't represent more than a couple percent of the payback.

---

I saw the meter move during freeplay.

At least I'm pretty sure I did.

But here's another question:

Is it legal for them to completely prevent the machine from hitting below $4990?

Or do they have to allow it to hit in the entire range, but just weight it so heavily in the $4990s that it virtually won't hit any other time?

Personally I feel either way is BS, and is very misleading to the average player. But I'd still like to know the answer.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

Good job Mickey. But I don't see anything immoral about these games being set to hit in a narrow band near 5K. As I said before this info is a gift from the casino to the players.

By the way, there are smaller payoffs as well throughout the runup of the meters, right?

---

How do you feel this is a "gift" to the player?

It's no gift. It's business. The machine has very bad odds when you're not hitting the big jackpot, in order to make up for the lump payment when you do hit the jackpot. As Mickey calculated, it was returning 85% to me when not hitting either jackpot, and Mickey's experience was only an 83% return. So that's pretty horrible when not hitting the jackpot.

So if a certain group of players (i.e. ploppies) are playing it with almost no chance to hit that jackpot, they're actually much worse off on these machines than they are on regular 1c slots (which tend to return 88.5%-91%).

Judging from all the action I saw from people when the machine was at $4600 / $330, I think there are a lot of such ploppies getting royally screwed here.

This is different from a regular jackpot, where you always have the same chance of hitting it as everyone else playing the machine at other times. Yes, progressive jackpots can greatly vary in size, but that's very clear to the players, even the ploppies. This type of machine is very deceptive.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Dan Druff

But here's another question:

Is it legal for them to completely prevent the machine from hitting below $4990?

Or do they have to allow it to hit in the entire range, but just weight it so heavily in the $4990s that it virtually won't hit any other time?

Personally I feel either way is BS, and is very misleading to the average player. But I'd still like to know the answer.

---

The only thing I have to go on so far is DRich, a member of WoV, and a video game designer, said it's legal to weight the must hit progressives and if he were to design such a game he would weight it to run to the high side.

The must hit progressives are the most prevalent short term advantage slots you will find in casinos across the country. Practically every casino has them and the ploppies give them a lot of action. They play them way to low but still get their share of jackpots because of the randomness of when they hit. The River Dragons and variants are new and when the ploppies get on them at a mid-range number they think they have a chance to hit the progressive but in reality they don't unless they run it all the way to the top. And that would cost a hell of a lot more than the progressive pays.

I watched a situation not long ago at Couer D'Alene Casino in Worley, Idaho. A couple got on a River Dragon one morning at $4812. I had been watching that machine to see if it would develop a playable number. By that afternoon they had run it up to $4900 but were on their phones. A few more people showed up. Looked to me like people with money to invest on the play. I happened to come by about 3 AM as they were waiting on the hand pay, getting congratulated by the floor people, but I didn't see any smiles on their faces. They looked worn out and forlorn. These kind of people don't know anything about writing off losses against wins. They got their butts kicked and one of them had to eat a W2-G.

This is why I consider the game to be immoral. They thought they had a chance to hit it with every spin.

I spoke to Dr. Itch earlier and he said it’s legal for them to heavily weight it to $4,990+, as long as there is SOME chance (it can be miniscule) for it to hit before. I forgot to ask about whether the machine pre-determines the hit point or if it’s random every spin....although I don’t think that’d even matter.

Yesterday morning I came across an Ainsworth 5K must hit at $4875. The Ainworths are random so it's a different scenario. From that entry point the average hit would be 4937.50 + 62.50 = 4937.50. Then I clocked the meter. I always confirm meter speed. It ran at only 0.18%. That was bad news.

1/.0018 = 555.56
555.56 X 62.5 = 34,722

I always figure the drop at 20%. So 20% of 34,722 is $6944. So it was a no go. I'll be back over today to see where the meter is at or if someone has it locked up. With the slow meter speed I need a number no lower than 4926. The average hit would be halfway to 5K or 4963. That would be a $37 meter increase. Thats about a 20K wager so a cost of 4K.

Another thing to use the meter movement for is insuring you have enough money on you to spin it off even if it runs all the way to the top. It's pretty easy. In this case:

555.56 X 74 = 41,111
41,111 X 20% = $8,222

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by RS__

I spoke to Dr. Itch earlier and he said it’s legal for them to heavily weight it to $4,990+, as long as there is SOME chance (it can be miniscule) for it to hit before. I forgot to ask about whether the machine pre-determines the hit point or if it’s random every spin....although I don’t think that’d even matter.

---

I believe you are talking about DRich as Mickey was. Although Dr Itch would be a cool forum name.

I always understood it as it has to be able to be hit on every spin, but it is weighted heavily against it. So hitting the major at $4001 is about the same chance as seeing 18 YO’s in a row.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Dan Druff

But here's another question:

Is it legal for them to completely prevent the machine from hitting below $4990?

Or do they have to allow it to hit in the entire range, but just weight it so heavily in the $4990s that it virtually won't hit any other time?

Personally I feel either way is BS, and is very misleading to the average player. But I'd still like to know the answer.

---

The only thing I have to go on so far is DRich, a member of WoV, and a video game designer, said it's legal to weight the must hit progressives and if he were to design such a game he would weight it to run to the high side.

The must hit progressives are the most prevalent short term advantage slots you will find in casinos across the country. Practically every casino has them and the ploppies give them a lot of action. They play them way to low but still get their share of jackpots because of the randomness of when they hit. The River Dragons and variants are new and when the ploppies get on them at a mid-range number they think they have a chance to hit the progressive but in reality they don't unless they run it all the way to the top. And that would cost a hell of a lot more than the progressive pays.

I watched a situation not long ago at Couer D'Alene Casino in Worley, Idaho. A couple got on a River Dragon one morning at $4812. I had been watching that machine to see if it would develop a playable number. By that afternoon they had run it up to $4900 but were on their phones. A few more people showed up. Looked to me like people with money to invest on the play. I happened to come by about 3 AM as they were waiting on the hand pay, getting congratulated by the floor people, but I didn't see any smiles on their faces. They looked worn out and forlorn. These kind of people don't know anything about writing off losses against wins. They got their butts kicked and one of them had to eat a W2-G.

This is why I consider the game to be immoral. They thought they had a chance to hit it with every spin.

---

Did you happen to see what the jackpot amount was?

I grabbed a River Dragon minor at just over $486 yesterday with a 0.45% meter but I was wondering if that was a good idea based on this thread. I hit it at $499.14 and fortunately made money due to a couple of good bonus rounds.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by jj5957

Quote:

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

But here's another question:

Is it legal for them to completely prevent the machine from hitting below $4990?

Or do they have to allow it to hit in the entire range, but just weight it so heavily in the $4990s that it virtually won't hit any other time?

Personally I feel either way is BS, and is very misleading to the average player. But I'd still like to know the answer.

---

The only thing I have to go on so far is DRich, a member of WoV, and a video game designer, said it's legal to weight the must hit progressives and if he were to design such a game he would weight it to run to the high side.

The must hit progressives are the most prevalent short term advantage slots you will find in casinos across the country. Practically every casino has them and the ploppies give them a lot of action. They play them way to low but still get their share of jackpots because of the randomness of when they hit. The River Dragons and variants are new and when the ploppies get on them at a mid-range number they think they have a chance to hit the progressive but in reality they don't unless they run it all the way to the top. And that would cost a hell of a lot more than the progressive pays.

I watched a situation not long ago at Couer D'Alene Casino in Worley, Idaho. A couple got on a River Dragon one morning at $4812. I had been watching that machine to see if it would develop a playable number. By that afternoon they had run it up to $4900 but were on their phones. A few more people showed up. Looked to me like people with money to invest on the play. I happened to come by about 3 AM as they were waiting on the hand pay, getting congratulated by the floor people, but I didn't see any smiles on their faces. They looked worn out and forlorn. These kind of people don't know anything about writing off losses against wins. They got their butts kicked and one of them had to eat a W2-G.

This is why I consider the game to be immoral. They thought they had a chance to hit it with every spin.

---

Did you happen to see what the jackpot amount was?

I grabbed a River Dragon minor at just over $486 yesterday with a 0.45% meter but I was wondering if that was a good idea based on this thread. I hit it at $499.14 and fortunately made money due to a couple of good bonus rounds.

---

It ran them all the way to the top. My playable number on the 500 is 487.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

It ran them all the way to the top. My playable number on the 500 is 487.

---

Mickey, you give away too much information between the lines.

If you were making so much money doing what you claim to be doing, and the machines were so available, then you would be starting at much higher numbers than the rest.

As it is, these sorts of games still seem to require a lot of luck, even when you can find a machine to play, when you happen to find one that's open just like any other "ploppie". Perhaps, you are a "ploppie" but don't know it?

It's funny you not telling anyone here about how long one must wait for one of those machines to "payoff". Most of us had already figured that out.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Bill Yung

Quote:

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

It ran them all the way to the top. My playable number on the 500 is 487.

---

Mickey, you give away too much information between the lines.

If you were making so much money doing what you claim to be doing, and the machines were so available, then you would be starting at much higher numbers than the rest.

As it is, these sorts of games still seem to require a lot of luck, even when you can find a machine to play, when you happen to find one that's open just like any other "ploppie". Perhaps, you are a "ploppie" but don't know it?

It's funny you not telling anyone here about how long one must wait for one of those machines to "payoff". Most of us had already figured that out.

---

What the fuck are you even saying here? He gives his starting numbers that remove “luck” from the equation. He has no good reason to help others, but he does. Why would he walk away from a profitable machine to risk letting it go higher and miss out of a profit? Makes no sense.

Payoff? He tells everyone the machines in question won’t payoff until right before the top.

Your hatred of the effort Mick and others put in makes no sense. It’s a job like many others. And some find ways to be the best at their job. It’s takes hard work, intellect and common sense, things you just can’t teach.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by The Boz

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Bill Yung

Quote:

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

It ran them all the way to the top. My playable number on the 500 is 487.

---

Mickey, you give away too much information between the lines.

If you were making so much money doing what you claim to be doing, and the machines were so available, then you would be starting at much higher numbers than the rest.

As it is, these sorts of games still seem to require a lot of luck, even when you can find a machine to play, when you happen to find one that's open just like any other "ploppie". Perhaps, you are a "ploppie" but don't know it?

It's funny you not telling anyone here about how long one must wait for one of those machines to "payoff". Most of us had already figured that out.

---

What the fuck are you even saying here? He gives his starting numbers that remove “luck” from the equation. He has no good reason to help others, but he does. Why would he walk away from a profitable machine to risk letting it go higher and miss out of a profit? Makes no sense.

Payoff? He tells everyone the machines in question won’t payoff until right before the top.

Your hatred of the effort Mick and others put in makes no sense. It’s a job like many others. And some find ways to be the best at their job. It’s takes hard work, intellect and common sense, things you just can’t teach.

---

I can't disagree with how people who find and play these machines can probably make a profit. But exactly how often can these "ready to pay off" machines be found? And how would anyone know whether the last 50c of meter movement isn't going to require 10,000 credits of play to hit or not--esp. In Indian casinos? Didn't I read in this thread that the movement is not linear?

What's the rule in Nevada on these progressives? Are they required to move the meters at the same rate throughout? If so, where are these machines and I'll start monitoring them and jump into the seats before anyone else gets there.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Rob.Singer

Quote:

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Originally Posted by The Boz

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Bill Yung

Mickey, you give away too much information between the lines.

If you were making so much money doing what you claim to be doing, and the machines were so available, then you would be starting at much higher numbers than the rest.

As it is, these sorts of games still seem to require a lot of luck, even when you can find a machine to play, when you happen to find one that's open just like any other "ploppie". Perhaps, you are a "ploppie" but don't know it?

It's funny you not telling anyone here about how long one must wait for one of those machines to "payoff". Most of us had already figured that out.

---

What the fuck are you even saying here? He gives his starting numbers that remove “luck” from the equation. He has no good reason to help others, but he does. Why would he walk away from a profitable machine to risk letting it go higher and miss out of a profit? Makes no sense.

Payoff? He tells everyone the machines in question won’t payoff until right before the top.

Your hatred of the effort Mick and others put in makes no sense. It’s a job like many others. And some find ways to be the best at their job. It’s takes hard work, intellect and common sense, things you just can’t teach.

---

I can't disagree with how people who find and play these machines can probably make a profit. But exactly how often can these "ready to pay off" machines be found? And how would anyone know whether the last 50c of meter movement is going to require 10,000 credits of play to hit or not? Didn't I read in this thread that the movement is not linear?

---

Only on the WMS machines where the meter only moves after a win. The others that I know of are a set movement based on coin in. Yes it does take time and money to determine that rate, and it can have different settings on the same machine in different local actions. It really is a simple math game. And Mickey used a higher than average hold of 20% on the base game to be safe and allow for a bad run.

As for how often you find these games, if they are part of an overall strategy and you have other options in a casino it’s a nice extra. Sitting around watching a few machines, probably not so much.

And the more information like this is being discussed, the more people out there looking for them. The problem is many “think” they have an advantage when they don’t, and they don’t have the bankroll. A little knowledge can be very dangerous.

Absolutely, there's a lot of people playing these progressives that have little to no clue. That quarter Viper large bank of machines at MGM went on for years, and it was always a bad bet.

mickey says he finds and wins on these type machines every day really, and many appear to be in the most obscure places. I find this highly improbable--that he's able to swoop in from the road, where virtually no one else who knows these things ever steps in front of him, finds a daily play or two, then sits down and wins while never losing. Almost every day according to him.

Sounds like he should be flying his private jet into these places instead of driving and sleeping in a car with 110,000 miles on it, no?

mickey if I got any of this wrong, correct me please.

Mickey seems to have found a niche that he can mine, and to good effect.

It is odd though to think people can AP slots; seems almost counter-intuitive.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by MaxPen

... what it would be like to have Mickey's AP knowledge.

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It's knowledge without any possible understanding, and hence any real satisfaction. Just a bunch of numbers taken nowhere to the nth degree down your own little rabbit-hole forever. Heck, he said it, himself: one simplistic equation, here of edge.

If Mickey couldn't tell anyone from the get-go about how long you have to wait for a must-hit payout, which more or less negates the whole AP-slot thing, then what else hasn't he told us that should also be plain as day?

He wants this to be an AP-board, but he let Dan go down the slot-hole, and, will, again. All because Mickey doesn't want everyone to know the truth.

All those burger-flippers WOULD'VE BEEN AP's where it so easy.

Moses asked me what it would take for me to believe in KJ. It's not what it would take for me to believe, but about how little it takes for gamblers to want and have to just believe it all.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Bill Yung

Quote:

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

It ran them all the way to the top. My playable number on the 500 is 487.

---

Mickey, you give away too much information between the lines.

If you were making so much money doing what you claim to be doing, and the machines were so available, then you would be starting at much higher numbers than the rest.

As it is, these sorts of games still seem to require a lot of luck, even when you can find a machine to play, when you happen to find one that's open just like any other "ploppie". Perhaps, you are a "ploppie" but don't know it?

It's funny you not telling anyone here about how long one must wait for one of those machines to "payoff". Most of us had already figured that out.

---

Could you write something that's not gibberish? What do you mean by "how long one must wait for one of those machines to "payoff?"

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Bill Yung

Quote:

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

It ran them all the way to the top. My playable number on the 500 is 487.

---

Mickey, you give away too much information between the lines.

If you were making so much money doing what you claim to be doing, and the machines were so available, then you would be starting at much higher numbers than the rest.

As it is, these sorts of games still seem to require a lot of luck, even when you can find a machine to play, when you happen to find one that's open just like any other "ploppie". Perhaps, you are a "ploppie" but don't know it?

It's funny you not telling anyone here about how long one must wait for one of those machines to "payoff". Most of us had already figured that out.

---

I start at numbers that I know will show a profit. And luck is for suckers like you. And...and....you don't have a goddam thing about these plays figured out, doofus.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Rob.Singer

Quote:

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Originally Posted by The Boz

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Bill Yung

Mickey, you give away too much information between the lines.

If you were making so much money doing what you claim to be doing, and the machines were so available, then you would be starting at much higher numbers than the rest.

As it is, these sorts of games still seem to require a lot of luck, even when you can find a machine to play, when you happen to find one that's open just like any other "ploppie". Perhaps, you are a "ploppie" but don't know it?

It's funny you not telling anyone here about how long one must wait for one of those machines to "payoff". Most of us had already figured that out.

---

What the fuck are you even saying here? He gives his starting numbers that remove “luck” from the equation. He has no good reason to help others, but he does. Why would he walk away from a profitable machine to risk letting it go higher and miss out of a profit? Makes no sense.

Payoff? He tells everyone the machines in question won’t payoff until right before the top.

Your hatred of the effort Mick and others put in makes no sense. It’s a job like many others. And some find ways to be the best at their job. It’s takes hard work, intellect and common sense, things you just can’t teach.

---

I can't disagree with how people who find and play these machines can probably make a profit. But exactly how often can these "ready to pay off" machines be found? And how would anyone know whether the last 50c of meter movement isn't going to require 10,000 credits of play to hit or not--esp. In Indian casinos? Didn't I read in this thread that the movement is not linear?

What's the rule in Nevada on these progressives? Are they required to move the meters at the same rate throughout? If so, where are these machines and I'll start monitoring them and jump into the seats before anyone else gets there.

---

The meters run at the same constant speed.

Mystery Progressives are in practically every casino in the country so you won't have far to look. That also means you can't be everywhere and get every play. Now, it seems you have come around to believing that machine AP is possible. I've given a pretty good clinic in this thread and the mystery progressive thread. But you will have to learn to deal with a myriad of different mystery progressives with different meter speeds and playable numbers. What's your game plan to clock meters and calculate playable numbers?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Rob.Singer

Absolutely, there's a lot of people playing these progressives that have little to no clue. That quarter Viper large bank of machines at MGM went on for years, and it was always a bad bet.

mickey says he finds and wins on these type machines every day really, and many appear to be in the most obscure places. I find this highly improbable--that he's able to swoop in from the road, where virtually no one else who knows these things ever steps in front of him, finds a daily play or two, then sits down and wins while never losing. Almost every day according to him.

Sounds like he should be flying his private jet into these places instead of driving and sleeping in a car with 110,000 miles on it, no?

mickey if I got any of this wrong, correct me please.

---

The mystery progressives are just one of many different games I play for profit. I've made a few thousand dollars on them this year so they are a small part of my overall earn. I don't sit around waiting on mystery progressive plays. I'm busy on other machines. What you don't know, Rob, is there are a myriad of other exploitable slots in the casinos of this country. I walk right past the MP's going to other machines so it's easy to check the numbers. When I get a number I play.

Now, as for sleeping in my car. I'm quite prepared to sleep in my car. Having lived in extreme cold climates for most of my life I carry survival gear in my trunk in case of a breakdown in an isolated area. I haven't had to sleep in my car yet but I'm prepared.

I like the hotels. My hotel bill has sunk like a stone this year. In the screenshot you can see I'm a Diamond member of the Choice Privileges loyalty program. I've bought 113 nights from them so far this year and I've gotten about 50 free nights. You can see the points on the left. I've been a steady customer with them so I average accumulating 4600 points per paid night. Every 8000 points is a free night. It averages to every 11 nights I buy I get 6 free nights.

I'm also getting comped rooms at the casinos now. I'm in a comped room tonight and I'll be in a comped room this weekend. So like I said, my hotel bill has been drastically reduced.

Note: If you know where to look I've got Win and Frugal on my laptop.

Comped Rooms are nice MC but why show everyone your Member Number?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Rob.Singer

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by The Boz

What the fuck are you even saying here? He gives his starting numbers that remove “luck” from the equation. He has no good reason to help others, but he does. Why would he walk away from a profitable machine to risk letting it go higher and miss out of a profit? Makes no sense.

Payoff? He tells everyone the machines in question won’t payoff until right before the top.

Your hatred of the effort Mick and others put in makes no sense. It’s a job like many others. And some find ways to be the best at their job. It’s takes hard work, intellect and common sense, things you just can’t teach.

---

I can't disagree with how people who find and play these machines can probably make a profit. But exactly how often can these "ready to pay off" machines be found? And how would anyone know whether the last 50c of meter movement isn't going to require 10,000 credits of play to hit or not--esp. In Indian casinos? Didn't I read in this thread that the movement is not linear?

What's the rule in Nevada on these progressives? Are they required to move the meters at the same rate throughout? If so, where are these machines and I'll start monitoring them and jump into the seats before anyone else gets there.

---

The meters run at the same constant speed.

Mystery Progressives are in practically every casino in the country so you won't have far to look. That also means you can't be everywhere and get every play. Now, it seems you have come around to believing that machine AP is possible. I've given a pretty good clinic in this thread and the mystery progressive thread. But you will have to learn to deal with a myriad of different mystery progressives with different meter speeds and playable numbers. What's your game plan to clock meters and calculate playable numbers?

---

Didn't Dan say the last portion of his meter ran slower than when he sat down? Or are there different types of progressive machines?

Regardless of how well you maintain your car, you should never trust that one with that many miles on it will not give you problems. However, I see the point now. No one depends on you, so if you get stuck for a few days, no big deal.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Rob.Singer

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Rob.Singer

I can't disagree with how people who find and play these machines can probably make a profit. But exactly how often can these "ready to pay off" machines be found? And how would anyone know whether the last 50c of meter movement isn't going to require 10,000 credits of play to hit or not--esp. In Indian casinos? Didn't I read in this thread that the movement is not linear?

What's the rule in Nevada on these progressives? Are they required to move the meters at the same rate throughout? If so, where are these machines and I'll start monitoring them and jump into the seats before anyone else gets there.

---

The meters run at the same constant speed.

Mystery Progressives are in practically every casino in the country so you won't have far to look. That also means you can't be everywhere and get every play. Now, it seems you have come around to believing that machine AP is possible. I've given a pretty good clinic in this thread and the mystery progressive thread. But you will have to learn to deal with a myriad of different mystery progressives with different meter speeds and playable numbers. What's your game plan to clock meters and calculate playable numbers?

---

Didn't Dan say the last portion of his meter ran slower than when he sat down? Or are there different types of progressive machines?

Regardless of how well you maintain your car, you should never trust that one with that many miles on it will not give you problems. However, I see the point now. No one depends on you, so if you get stuck for a few days, no big deal.

---

Dan has only a few posts in this thread. All you had to do was go over them to see if he said the meter slowed down. But I can save you the trouble. No AP has ever reported a meter slowing down on them on a mystery progressive. I've never seen it. If there were any meters that slowed down it would all be calculated into the play anyway. Rob, I'm afraid you're just a little to slow for getting involved in AP play. Best stick to your marty.

Mickeycrimm I thought Dan indicated the meter slowed down. He wrote "So ignoring which was freeplay and which wasn't, I lost $4300 moving the meter $110, and $2500 moving it the final $19. I also wondered if that was rigged in some way (or if that's even legal.)"

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

Mickeycrimm I thought Dan indicated the meter slowed down. He wrote "So ignoring which was freeplay and which wasn't, I lost $4300 moving the meter $110, and $2500 moving it the final $19. I also wondered if that was rigged in some way (or if that's even legal.)"

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There is a difference between "lost money" and "play through." The meters move based on coin in, not amount won or lost.