Big Craps Advantage In Seattle

I get the Casino City Times Newsletter. In the current addition Jerrry Stickman wrote about a big craps advantage going down in one of the casinos around Seattle. I think Alan would like this bet a hell of a lot more than the fire bet. I can't imagine that Stickman would put this up in the newsletter while it was still going on. Damn, I would have like to have been on that play.

Click the link then click the weekly newsletter tab to read about it.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=...hpxF2lkgexGvHi

It's similar to what you need to do to win the ALL bet. But with the ALL you need to throw ten different numbers. With this promotion you can keep repeating any numbers but a seven and win. It's worth a try.

Boyd has a bet that pays even money: roll the dice four times without a seven.

Now with this promotion get 10X your money if you can avoid a 7 for 13 rolls.

I like it better than the STA (small, tall, all) since there is no requirements about which numbers must be hit.

I'd play it rather than the STA if it were available.

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

It's similar to what you need to do to win the ALL bet. But with the ALL you need to throw ten different numbers. With this promotion you can keep repeating any numbers but a seven and win. It's worth a try.

Boyd has a bet that pays even money: roll the dice four times without a seven.

Now with this promotion get 10X your money if you can avoid a 7 for 13 rolls.

I like it better than the STA (small, tall, all) since there is no requirements about which numbers must be hit.

I'd play it rather than the STA if it were available.

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On the Boyd bet, by my math you have only a 48.2253% chance to go four rolls without a 7.

5/6 = .833333333

.833333333 X .833333333 X .833333333 X .833333333 = 48.2253%

And I'm going over the math on the Seattle bet.

I'd come out of retirement for that promo.

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Originally Posted by regnis

I'd come out of retirement for that promo.

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The chance of going 13 rolls without a 7 is .833333333 to the 13th power, or 9.97%. Since the passline bet has a 1.4% house advantage, 98.6% return to the player, getting payed 10X the bet on 13 rolls without a 7 is damn near a freeroll.

The wiz reviewed it late last year.

see:

https://wizardofodds.com/games/31-classic/

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Originally Posted by MisterV

The wiz reviewed it late last year.

see:

https://wizardofodds.com/games/31-classic/

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31 Classic is a card game.

mickey, while it's confusing why we're seeing the 31 card game discussed in the middle of all this, the question is, if this dice game you're talking about has such a juicy advantage, is it by mistake, or does the casino know what they're doing, and why?

What is the "big...advantage" available here, is there someway to AP it?

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Originally Posted by Rob.Singer

mickey, while it's confusing why we're seeing the 31 card game discussed in the middle of all this, the question is, if this dice game you're talking about has such a juicy advantage, is it by mistake, or does the casino know what they're doing, and why?

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I have no clue. I'm not there. Just going by Stickman's word. I can't imagine Stickman would put that question and answer up while the play is still going on. It would attract AP's by the droves which would be the quickest way to kill the play. It's an obvious mistake, especially since they planned on running it for one month....and Stickman made the point that someone might lose their job over it.

And Rob, Mr. I have a degree and am highly educated in math, your statement here, "if this dice game you're talking about has such a juicy advantage" means you can't figure it out yourself just by reading the article. Hahahahaha!!! That's funny. You've exposed yourself once again as the fraudulent assclown you are. You don't know a damn thing about the mathematics of gambling or you would see the big edge to be had.

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Originally Posted by MisterV

What is the "big...advantage" available here, is there someway to AP it?

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It would take some work on this bet. The table would most likely be packed with dice players. Max payoff on the bet is $500. So it would call for a $50 passline bet. Only the shooter qualifies for the bet. The passline bet also covers the 13 roll bet. The frequency of the 13 rolls without sevening out is 10%. The 13 rolls will occur, per the average, every 10 times the dice 7 out.

Since the house has a 1.4% advantage on the passline bet and the wager per 10 decisions is $500 the average cost would be $7 per 10 decisions. The expectation is to cash for $500 per every 10 decisions. It's a 198% play by my math.

Since only the shooter qualifies for the bet it would be time consuming. The best way to handle it would be for people to partner up so they are getting more chances per round.

Uh, again, it's a CARD game, not a dice game.

Interesting game, though.

Here's the correct link to the promo:

http://stickman.casinocitytimes.com/...romotion-66107

Thanks, that ends the confusion.

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

It's a 198% play by my math.

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Dividing this bet the total amount bet yields a player advantage of 51%. http://stickman.casinocitytimes.com/...romotion-66107

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Are we talking about the same bet?

Actually, I have no idea, don't have time to read all of that. Just thought I would try to compare Mickey's calculations to the ones in the link jbjb provided.

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

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Originally Posted by Rob.Singer

mickey, while it's confusing why we're seeing the 31 card game discussed in the middle of all this, the question is, if this dice game you're talking about has such a juicy advantage, is it by mistake, or does the casino know what they're doing, and why?

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I have no clue. I'm not there. Just going by Stickman's word. I can't imagine Stickman would put that question and answer up while the play is still going on. It would attract AP's by the droves which would be the quickest way to kill the play. It's an obvious mistake, especially since they planned on running it for one month....and Stickman made the point that someone might lose their job over it.

And Rob, Mr. I have a degree and am highly educated in math, your statement here, "if this dice game you're talking about has such a juicy advantage" means you can't figure it out yourself just by reading the article. Hahahahaha!!! That's funny. You've exposed yourself once again as the fraudulent assclown you are. You don't know a damn thing about the mathematics of gambling or you would see the big edge to be had.

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mickey, I didn't look for or read the article. I figured since you seem to have no other interests in life outside of alcohol, junk cars, self-powered hand jobs, and gambling, you'd be the best to ask.

On that web page there is a second letter to Stickman saying the promotion is over.

I think the key statistic from the article was this:

According to Smart Craps the percentage of hands of 14 roll or more is 17.7%. Getting paid an extra 10 times your line bet 17% of the time is well more than enough to offset the house edge.

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Originally Posted by Bill Yung

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

It's a 198% play by my math.

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Quote:

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Dividing this bet the total amount bet yields a player advantage of 51%. http://stickman.casinocitytimes.com/...romotion-66107

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Are we talking about the same bet?

Actually, I have no idea, don't have time to read all of that. Just thought I would try to compare Mickey's calculations to the ones in the link jbjb provided.

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Stickman said he didn't know how to do the pure math on the bet.

When you want to know the chance of not rolling a certain number for a certain number of rolls you multiply the failure rate. The chance of rolling a 7 is 1 in 6. So the failure rate is 5 in 6. The decimal for 5/6 is .833333333. You multiply the decimal 13 times. It's also called .833333333 to the 13th power. The chance of going 13 rolls without a 7 is 9.3463875% or 1 in 10.7. I rounded it to 1 in 10 for ease of example but will now do the exact math.

The passline bet has a 98.6% return and you are freerolling the 13 rolls. The cost of the $50 passline bet is $7.49 per 10.7 decisions. Anytime there are 13 rolls between 7's, happens 9.346% of the time, you get payed $500. I'll trade $7.49 for $500 anyday and all day.

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

On that web page there is a second letter to Stickman saying the promotion is over.

I think the key statistic from the article was this:

According to Smart Craps the percentage of hands of 14 roll or more is 17.7%. Getting paid an extra 10 times your line bet 17% of the time is well more than enough to offset the house edge.

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You are not even right about the number of rolls you have to miss the 7. Do you see where it says "14 rolls or more?" Fourteen rolls or more is quite a different percentage than exactly 14 rolls. In the case of the Seattle bet you get payed when the 7 misses the 13th time.

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Originally Posted by Rob.Singer

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

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Originally Posted by Rob.Singer

mickey, while it's confusing why we're seeing the 31 card game discussed in the middle of all this, the question is, if this dice game you're talking about has such a juicy advantage, is it by mistake, or does the casino know what they're doing, and why?

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I have no clue. I'm not there. Just going by Stickman's word. I can't imagine Stickman would put that question and answer up while the play is still going on. It would attract AP's by the droves which would be the quickest way to kill the play. It's an obvious mistake, especially since they planned on running it for one month....and Stickman made the point that someone might lose their job over it.

And Rob, Mr. I have a degree and am highly educated in math, your statement here, "if this dice game you're talking about has such a juicy advantage" means you can't figure it out yourself just by reading the article. Hahahahaha!!! That's funny. You've exposed yourself once again as the fraudulent assclown you are. You don't know a damn thing about the mathematics of gambling or you would see the big edge to be had.

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mickey, I didn't look for or read the article. I figured since you seem to have no other interests in life outside of alcohol, junk cars, self-powered hand jobs, and gambling, you'd be the best to ask.

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You didn't read the article? Prove it.

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

On that web page there is a second letter to Stickman saying the promotion is over.

I think the key statistic from the article was this:

According to Smart Craps the percentage of hands of 14 roll or more is 17.7%. Getting paid an extra 10 times your line bet 17% of the time is well more than enough to offset the house edge.

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You are not even right about the number of rolls you have to miss the 7. Do you see where it says "14 rolls or more?" Fourteen rolls or more is quite a different percentage than exactly 14 rolls. In the case of the Seattle bet you get payed when the 7 misses the 13th time.

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Mickey I quoted a line from the article. Do you have to argue everything?

Does anyone know exactly what casino this was in?

I would be tempted to pay people to just pass the dice. I dont think one would have a problem hiring people to play craps for them. Give them a small free roll on their winnings so they have action.

I have no idea how many rolls you can get out on a craps table I wonder what the hourly is when you are the shooter?

Think of it this way. At an empty craps table -- shooter only -- you can get one roll every fifteen seconds. This includes the five seconds of rolling the dice, the five seconds for a simple payoff on a box number, and the five seconds to retrieve the dice for the next roll.

In a perfect scenario you could make 13 throws in less than three and a half minutes. You could win this bet about 20 times an hour, in a perfect scenario.

When you add other players and complex bets such as come with odds and hardways, you're lucky to get 60 rolls an hour, or one a minute. In a really busy scenario you might not get a roll for three minutes or longer and I've seen that happen at a crowded table with bets pressed and hardways hitting.

I read the article where Stickman responded to an inquiry from someone about a promotion.

I did not see any reference to which casino offered the promotion, or what part of the country it was in, other than it was sixty miles from the guy's house.

So what is the Seattle connection?

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Originally Posted by MisterV

I read the article where Stickman responded to an inquiry from someone about a promotion.

I did not see any reference to which casino offered the promotion, or what part of the country it was in, other than it was sixty miles from the guy's house.

So what is the Seattle connection?

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In the 5th paragraph of Stickman's answer he tells the guy "I'll see you in 8 hours which is as soon as I can fly to Seattle."

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Originally Posted by AxelWolf

Does anyone know exactly what casino this was in?

I would be tempted to pay people to just pass the dice. I dont think one would have a problem hiring people to play craps for them. Give them a small free roll on their winnings so they have action.

I have no idea how many rolls you can get out on a craps table I wonder what the hourly is when you are the shooter?

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Can't say exactly but my guess would be Tulalip or Muckleshoot.

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

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Originally Posted by MisterV

I read the article where Stickman responded to an inquiry from someone about a promotion.

I did not see any reference to which casino offered the promotion, or what part of the country it was in, other than it was sixty miles from the guy's house.

So what is the Seattle connection?

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In the 5th paragraph of Stickman's answer he tells the guy "I'll see you in 8 hours which is as soon as I can fly to Seattle."

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It sort of sounds like he was asking himself this question, that he had to start dropping hints he had no intention of pursuing.

I got the same feeling from reading some of the Wiz's Q's and A's. I mean, who even knew he existed before he put those questions up on his ODDS site?

If he, or the other guy, had been asked a question that he couldn't answer, it would have been more believable. (The Wizard couldn't catch flies with his mouth, either, in real time.)

The formula for determining the probability of going X number of rolls of the dice without rolling a certain number has been around for 350 years. It's a fundamental of Probability Theory and was pioneer'd by Blaise Pascal and Pierre de Fermat, the founders of Probability Theory. It was the first formula they developed for dice throws. It started with a simple question asked of them by a dice gambler "What is the probability of rolling boxcars in 24 rolls?" Their solution was multiplying the failure rate for each roll.

The probability of rolling boxcars on the next throw is 1/36. The failure rate is 35/36. The decimal for the failure rate is .97222222. They multiplied the failure rate 24 times and came up with the answer of 50.8%. Which means the success rate is 49.2%. This was crucial to the dice gambler because he had been betting that he could roll boxcars in 24 rolls. They advised him that he needed an effective number of 25 to have an advantage.

The story of how Pascal and Fermat founded the branch of mathematics known as Probability Theory over a question asked them by a dice gambler is well documented and everyone who has studied the origins of the science knows it. The failure rate formula has been around for 350 years, mathematicians for ten generations have used it, and no noted mathematician has ever refuted it.

I used the exact same formula for calculating the probability of going 13 rolls without rolling a 7.

I looked at a few websites where I suspected it may be. I noticed one place listed their promotion with clickable links to the details, but there was no craps promo mentioned. Then I checked their calendar and it was just a screenshot (probably of their monthly snail mail promo calenders they send out) and it had a craps promo(at least that's what the graphics indicated), but no details that I could click on since it was just a screenshot of their calendar.

I would suspect this was the place and they took it off the main promo page but they didn't want to delete the entire calendar screenshot off the website.

At this point, I dont even remember the name of the casino, I would have to recheck a few sites to remind myself.

Dies ist Herr Max Planck der Barney bester Freund

Als der größte Mathematiker der Welt kann ich zweifellos bestätigen, dass die größte Mickey Crimm-Analyse der Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Würfelergebnisse sehr korrekt ist und auf den größten Werken von Pascal und Fermat basiert.

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Originally Posted by MisterV

I read the article where Stickman responded to an inquiry from someone about a promotion.

I did not see any reference to which casino offered the promotion, or what part of the country it was in, other than it was sixty miles from the guy's house.

So what is the Seattle connection?

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As I was reading when you asked this question, I had no idea where I got that information from, I was 100% certain I read it but I almost 2nd guessed myself after what you posted. I was about to go read it again after I finished reading the rest of this thread.
Mystery solved, glad I finished reading the rest of the thread.