Horrible losing streak

Hey gang.

First off, I will say that I am a recreational VP player and expect to lose a little. And typically, between local casinos and a 3 nighter in Vegas, I usually lose $2-3k a year. Some years a little more, some years I win a little - but always somewhat inline what with the "math" says my results would be.

Well, this year I am down $15k. That is playing mostly $1 single line VP with some triple play. Occasionally, I'll play a little $2 single line. When I go to the casino I usually take $800 - $1200 and play games in the 98.9% - 99.6% range. With cash back and mail it approaches break-even, but not quite. These are class 3 machines and I play with a very high degree of accuracy.

Take last night for example. I'd been watching a DDB progressive for a while and it finally got to near $8k, so I decided to play. I sat down with $600 and 24 minutes later I was busted. I downloaded $100 worth of points and after my 20 hands I had $20 from that $100 - it took that too. $700 and not even a flush (let alone a FH, quad or royal). I couldnt believe it.

I haven't had a winning session in months. Usually even with $1200 session BR I don't even get a quad. If I do manage one, it isn't aces or 2-4s. Almost always my BR goes straight down to zero. Over and over again. My Vegas trip was the worst ever. I played lots of Bonus poker for quarters and still lost a bundle.

I know VP is a streaky game, but damn. Any tips for busting out of this slump? If it goes on for much longer I will have to give it up. Time for some voodoo?

I'm not going to go into a variance spiel, as you undoubtedly have a sense of that. Instead, I'll simply ask if the "local casinos" are Native American. If your LV excursion is annual, and just three nights, obviously anything can happen in that time frame. But if the "local casinos" are Native American, understand that they are not beholden to much of anything, and anyone who works there who is Native American owes tribal loyalty above all. And if any insider discovers anything not kosher, the first amendment doesn't really apply on tribal grounds, so the tribe can legally quash any information leakage.

Just as a research aside, I mentioned here a few years back that Cherokee had curiously sticky buttons on video poker machines, even though the casino itself was spotless, beautiful, and the machines appeared relatively new. I'm not going to look up the post, but I found it unsettling. At the time, an outsider could have read my post as semi-paranoid. Well, last year, Jean Scott wrote an LVA column mentioning the same curious stickiness problem, and while she didn't go into details regarding her results, she did say that trip to Cherokee would be her last. I pass that along as possibly suggestive of something. She usually doesn't go into anti-cheerleader mode that abruptly, and without details.

Argentino will likely add to this, as it is one topic on which we have some shared caveats.

$1200 gets you 240 hands of $1 video poker. If you break even on one-third of those hands you have a total of 320 hands to play.

How many big hands do you expect out of 320 tries?

See the attached chart.

A word from experience: after losing 200 credits without a flush, straight, or full house-well, you found out the hard way..

redietz, definitely not Native owned and no sticky buttons. I wasn't trying to imply that anything is shady.

Alan, I don't expect any "big" winners on a particular $800-$1200 session. But, sooner or later I do expect one - or at least a quad or two. And I do expect enough straights/flushes/FH to keep me in the game long enough to start seeing some quads. But session after session of quick bust outs have me wondering how long such a streak can go on. The AP crowd says the math always works out in the long run, but to be 4 royals down on limited play?

Oftentimes, I use a "rising stop loss". Say I load $400 into a $1 Bonus Poker delux and $200 in I hit a quad and have $600 on the meter. I will play down to $500 or a quad. Hit a quad, now I have maybe $900 on the meter. Play down to $700 or a quad, ect. I have no problem walking out with a hundred or two of profit. Play long enough and they will get it all.

Please explain:

"The AP crowd says the math always works out in the long run, but to be 4 royals down on limited play?"

Are you saying you haven't hit a royal in 160,000 hands? If so, that is not "limited play." How many hands have you played without a royal? I know players who never hit one in their lives.

I once went more than a year without a royal.

And good luck with this: "The AP crowd says the math always works out in the long run...."

Yeah. Good luck, because the math does work out for the universe of all players.... but not necessarily you. Someone else is getting your quads and royals.

Variance of bonus poker games where 2 pair is a push are rough. None of this is unusual.

Don't get too excited until you are 10 cycles out of expectation.

You guys don't know the first thing about running bad, especially the feeling that divine intervention has cursed you and there's nothing you can do about it but watch your bankroll turn to ashes after being the most dedicated and disciplined counter this world has ever seen. I wouldn't have it any other way though, anyone else would've jumped off a bridge by now, gone on a shooting spree, or simply quit the game.

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Originally Posted by MaxPen

Don't get too excited until you are 10 cycles out of expectation.

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About a decade ago I went through over 500,000 hands without a royal. Mostly bonus games (DB,DDB,TBP+) where throughout the entire dry spell I would hit the reasonably expected quads for winning sessions a fraction of the time.

To the OP: I know of someone who played $1 single-line All-American (100.7% return with 26 variance, considerably less than DDB) and still experienced a $30,000 losing streak. Yes, he knew the play strategy perfectly, including penalty cards. Unlike your situation, he was playing single-line ONLY, no triple play, so your frustrating experiences are not unusual. It just sucks to be on the wrong side of variance, that is all.

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Originally Posted by ZenKinG

You guys don't know the first thing about running bad, especially the feeling that divine intervention has cursed you and there's nothing you can do about it but watch your bankroll turn to ashes after being the most dedicated and disciplined counter this world has ever seen. I wouldn't have it any other way though, anyone else would've jumped off a bridge by now, gone on a shooting spree, or simply quit the game.

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Bullshit we don't. We've had stretches were we've lost, more money and for longer periods of time then you. Get 20 more years in and you just might understand card counting.

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Originally Posted by ZenKinG

You guys don't know the first thing about running bad, especially the feeling that divine intervention has cursed you and there's nothing you can do about it but watch your bankroll turn to ashes after being the most dedicated and disciplined counter this world has ever seen. I wouldn't have it any other way though, anyone else would've jumped off a bridge by now, gone on a shooting spree, or simply quit the game.

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I will give you my frank opinion take it any way you want.


You have previously mentioned the size of your current playing bank that you also use for living expenses. You most likely already realize that you are swimming against the tide, as your expectations at this point in time are too far beyond realities. The reality is at this point in time your bankroll needs 100% total reinvestment of all capitol, and you are putting too much of a burden upon yourself to succeed at all cost. Knowing full well all of the variance associated with the game itself. I feel that you should reevaluate what you are trying to accomplish and start thinking serious enough to look ahead and avoid a possible bad outcome, and instead quit playing for the time being and try to find employment and hopefully build up your playing stake. What you have already done for the last few years is an accoplishment in itself, but your immediate goal was set too high.

Are the Indian casinos crooked? I'll just say this. I make a lot of money from machines in Indian casinos.

[QUOTE=Alan Mendelson;85428]Please explain:

"The AP crowd says the math always works out in the long run, but to be 4 royals down on limited play?"

Are you saying you haven't hit a royal in 160,000 hands? If so, that is not "limited play." How many hands have you played without a royal? I know players who never hit one in their lives.

No, I meant I am down 4 royals money-wise.

mickey, you wanna provide tax returns along with your contemporaneous gaming log supporting your claim that "I win lots of money from Indian casinos"? Mickey "Adam Schiff" Crimm :)

ddb1, don't be fooled. Play mostly a single denomination with no strategy other than what mostly every vp player on earth says they use, and you will lose throughout any amount of time without extraordinary good luck.

You seem to have been roped in by the AP justification trick of using slot club fluff to mask your true losses. From what you've described, what you're experiencing isn't out of line at all. The main problem is you are severely under-bankrolled to be playing even single line $1 vp. Take a year off, save more money for gambling, then come back to LV and play quarters. Keep in mind that you will never win using the method you use.

Of course, you could opt to hitting only Indian casinos. According to mickey, they're easy to scalp.

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Originally Posted by ZenKinG

You guys don't know the first thing about running bad, especially the feeling that divine intervention has cursed you and there's nothing you can do about it but watch your bankroll turn to ashes after being the most dedicated and disciplined counter this world has ever seen. I wouldn't have it any other way though, anyone else would've jumped off a bridge by now, gone on a shooting spree, or simply quit the game.

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Yeah, I try not to think that way, but I do feel cursed. I can't imagine the feeling I gambled for a living.

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Originally Posted by BoSox

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Originally Posted by ZenKinG

You guys don't know the first thing about running bad, especially the feeling that divine intervention has cursed you and there's nothing you can do about it but watch your bankroll turn to ashes after being the most dedicated and disciplined counter this world has ever seen. I wouldn't have it any other way though, anyone else would've jumped off a bridge by now, gone on a shooting spree, or simply quit the game.

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I will give you my frank opinion take it any way you want.


You have previously mentioned the size of your current playing bank that you also use for living expenses. You most likely already realize that you are swimming against the tide, as your expectations at this point in time are too far beyond realities. The reality is at this point in time your bankroll needs 100% total reinvestment of all capitol, and you are putting too much of a burden upon yourself to succeed at all cost. Knowing full well all of the variance associated with the game itself. I feel that you should reevaluate what you are trying to accomplish and start thinking serious enough to look ahead and avoid a possible bad outcome, and instead quit playing for the time being and try to find employment and hopefully build up your playing stake. What you have already done for the last few years is an accoplishment in itself, but your immediate goal was set too high.

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What ZK has done in the last 2 years is an accomplishment. While I don't know the numbers it is my understanding that he has won enough to cover at least part of his living expenses. Obviously that is or was not his goal. The goal was to cover all living expenses....and then some. And while he was unable to do that so far, there are issues that are holding him back, that when he is not ranting and takes a step back he himself even sees. One being his living expenses are too high (especially for what he is getting). He needs to address that especially short-term for a couple years so he can grow his bankroll more. That would be if his is intending to pursue this path.

The second issue is that he has not played enough during these two years. He is pursuing a "grinder' type path. That means putting in a lot of hours. By his own admission, at times he has been scared off by negative variance and stopped or reduced play for periods.

When he got here with 50k+, that was enough to pursue what he was pursuing. I would have handled the money a little differently, probably putting aside a year's living expenses and designating the rest as Bankroll, not to be touched for any withdraws. The goal would be for this bankroll to grow in that years time to cover a one time withdraw of living expenses for the following year. And if he couldn't do a year at a time, do 6 months. I know people will say it is all the same money, so there is no difference in taking monthly withdraws, but psychologically there is. And that is the part of the game he seems to have difficulty with.

I also think the biggest mistake ZK made was rejecting advice and offers to pursue other advantage plays on the side. More than anyone else, I can understand that he considers himself all about blackjack, just as I do. But some machine play AP on the side, would have provided a second income potential, sort of like a part-time job. Diversification helps smooth out the variance, which again seems to be his biggest issue. Hey my worst year since moving to Vegas, I made only 27k from blackjack. Far below expectation and that would not have covered my living expenses for that year with out the 20k extra I took in from non-BJ AP. That is the best example I can give.

Now it is true I have actually moved away from that diversification and back to my blackjack roots. But there is a reason for that. I am not smart enough to pursue these other non-BJ AP paths, like many on this site. I was limited to just basic VP plays that are drying up. The other big difference is that I am in a stronger financial position and can handle the variance both financially and mentally better than "the greatest ever" can. :rolleyes:

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Originally Posted by Rob.Singer

mickey, you wanna provide tax returns along with your contemporaneous gaming log supporting your claim that "I win lots of money from Indian casinos"? Mickey "Adam Schiff" Crimm :)

ddb1, don't be fooled. Play mostly a single denomination with no strategy other than what mostly every vp player on earth says they use, and you will lose throughout any amount of time without extraordinary good luck.

You seem to have been roped in by the AP justification trick of using slot club fluff to mask your true losses. From what you've described, what you're experiencing isn't out of line at all. The main problem is you are severely under-bankrolled to be playing even single line $1 vp. Take a year off, save more money for gambling, then come back to LV and play quarters. Keep in mind that you will never win using the method you use.

Of course, you could opt to hitting only Indian casinos. According to mickey, they're easy to scalp.

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LOLOLOLOL at this moron. Robocchio, did you provide YOUR tax returns you bet welshing bag of shit? You are also an admitted deadbeat. And a welfare queen.

Can you guys believe how stupid and ignorant this asshole Robert Harry Argentino is? He welshes a bet by not providing his tax returns....then tells someone else they need to provide their tax returns. How idiotic and stupid is that? You can't make this shit up, right BH?

I make lots of money in Indian casinos, Robocchio. You're to stupid to understand it. You don't believe it dumbfuck, I don't give a shit.

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Originally Posted by ZenKinG

You guys don't know the first thing about running bad, especially the feeling that divine intervention has cursed you and there's nothing you can do about it but watch your bankroll turn to ashes after being the most dedicated and disciplined counter this world has ever seen. I wouldn't have it any other way though, anyone else would've jumped off a bridge by now, gone on a shooting spree, or simply quit the game.

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Originally Posted by ZenKinG

Well this forum is a complete joke. I thought it was going to be different here, so this is my last post, but the amount of garbage the admins let go on in each thread and the straying of off topic conversations about endless bullshit is ridiculous.

...

Peace out trolls, this forum is a joke.

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Originally Posted by jbjb

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Originally Posted by ZenKinG

You guys don't know the first thing about running bad, especially the feeling that divine intervention has cursed you and there's nothing you can do about it but watch your bankroll turn to ashes after being the most dedicated and disciplined counter this world has ever seen. I wouldn't have it any other way though, anyone else would've jumped off a bridge by now, gone on a shooting spree, or simply quit the game.

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Bullshit we don't. We've had stretches were we've lost, more money and for longer periods of time then you. Get 20 more years in and you just might understand card counting.

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I don’t know why anyone would come here doubting the math and questioning why their getting their asses kicked.

If you loss 50K in a year, just get another 50K and keep playing. Keep repeating this strategy. Don’t worry, it’ll all work out within 20 years. The math is your god. Listen and pray to it before you enter any casinos.

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Originally Posted by blackhole

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Originally Posted by jbjb

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Originally Posted by ZenKinG

You guys don't know the first thing about running bad, especially the feeling that divine intervention has cursed you and there's nothing you can do about it but watch your bankroll turn to ashes after being the most dedicated and disciplined counter this world has ever seen. I wouldn't have it any other way though, anyone else would've jumped off a bridge by now, gone on a shooting spree, or simply quit the game.

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Bullshit we don't. We've had stretches were we've lost, more money and for longer periods of time then you. Get 20 more years in and you just might understand card counting.

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I don’t know why anyone would come here doubting the math and questioning why their getting their asses kicked.

If you loss 50K in a year, just get another 50K and keep playing. Keep repeating this strategy. Don’t worry, it’ll all work out within 20 years. The math is your god. Listen and pray to it before you enter any casinos.

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I put my first machine play down 23 years ago with just $23 in my pocket. When I got through with that play my bankroll was up to $38. When I got through with the next play,....a week later I had $1200 in my pocket.....a month later I had 5K in my pocket. That's how I started. I've never gone back the other way and busted out. Fuck a bustout.

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

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Originally Posted by Rob.Singer

mickey, you wanna provide tax returns along with your contemporaneous gaming log supporting your claim that "I win lots of money from Indian casinos"? Mickey "Adam Schiff" Crimm :)

ddb1, don't be fooled. Play mostly a single denomination with no strategy other than what mostly every vp player on earth says they use, and you will lose throughout any amount of time without extraordinary good luck.

You seem to have been roped in by the AP justification trick of using slot club fluff to mask your true losses. From what you've described, what you're experiencing isn't out of line at all. The main problem is you are severely under-bankrolled to be playing even single line $1 vp. Take a year off, save more money for gambling, then come back to LV and play quarters. Keep in mind that you will never win using the method you use.

Of course, you could opt to hitting only Indian casinos. According to mickey, they're easy to scalp.

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LOLOLOLOL at this moron. Robocchio, did you provide YOUR tax returns you bet welshing bag of shit? You are also an admitted deadbeat. And a welfare queen.

Can you guys believe how stupid and ignorant this asshole Robert Harry Argentino is? He welshes a bet by not providing his tax returns....then tells someone else they need to provide their tax returns. How idiotic and stupid is that? You can't make this shit up, right BH?

I make lots of money in Indian casinos, Robocchio. You're to stupid to understand it. You don't believe it dumbfuck, I don't give a shit.

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Hey mickey, that really compressed one of the few remaining live nerves in your cigarette-blackened and fatty food-pilfered body that the alcohol hasn't yet rotted out, didn't it! You do know that deflecting a valid question with lies and assertions only means you were lying in the first place, correct?

Then I'll let you off the hook. Just post a picture of your yearly contemporaneous gaming logs and we'll call it even Steven. Surely, that easy-peasy request won't set you off, right?

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

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Originally Posted by blackhole

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Originally Posted by jbjb

Bullshit we don't. We've had stretches were we've lost, more money and for longer periods of time then you. Get 20 more years in and you just might understand card counting.

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I don’t know why anyone would come here doubting the math and questioning why their getting their asses kicked.

If you loss 50K in a year, just get another 50K and keep playing. Keep repeating this strategy. Don’t worry, it’ll all work out within 20 years. The math is your god. Listen and pray to it before you enter any casinos.

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I put my first machine play down 23 years ago with just $23 in my pocket. When I got through with that play my bankroll was up to $38. When I got through with the next play,....a week later I had $1200 in my pocket.....a month later I had 5K in my pocket. That's how I started. I've never gone back the other way and busted out. Fuck a bustout.

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And do you wanna prove THAT?

No wonder your life couldn't handle not posting on forums. You'd go INSANE! if you didn't have a place to concoct all your silly gambling fabrications.

I can see the gravestone already. It says:

HERE LIES 'ol mickey
His hands always sticky
Tall tales abound
More than his belly is round

His casino adventures
Cost him his dentures
His old junk car
Was won at some bar

His life began fuzzy
A hobo...was he?
He'd hop on a train
Cause he had no brain

With no education
He'd sleep with vegetation
A girlfriend you say?
Ha!...NO FREAKIN' WAY

His life has meant nothing
Aside from his puffing
A lonely old man
In the frying pan

Yes, now that he's old
He's chasing fool's gold
The tribes are his latest
Fabrication hiatus

So sit down my friend
You're close to your end
Close another bar
Cause that's who you are

The end. :)

Damn, Robbocchio. You can't get me out of your head. Even writing poems about me. Seek help for your obsession.

Oh, BTW, that $23 bankroll I started with. I put it together credit hustling the machines. My bankroll starting out that morning was actually 99 cents.

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Originally Posted by ddb1

Hey gang.

First off, I will say that I am a recreational VP player and expect to lose a little. And typically, between local casinos and a 3 nighter in Vegas, I usually lose $2-3k a year. Some years a little more, some years I win a little - but always somewhat inline what with the "math" says my results would be.

Well, this year I am down $15k. That is playing mostly $1 single line VP with some triple play. Occasionally, I'll play a little $2 single line. When I go to the casino I usually take $800 - $1200 and play games in the 98.9% - 99.6% range. With cash back and mail it approaches break-even, but not quite. These are class 3 machines and I play with a very high degree of accuracy.

Take last night for example. I'd been watching a DDB progressive for a while and it finally got to near $8k, so I decided to play. I sat down with $600 and 24 minutes later I was busted. I downloaded $100 worth of points and after my 20 hands I had $20 from that $100 - it took that too. $700 and not even a flush (let alone a FH, quad or royal). I couldnt believe it.

I haven't had a winning session in months. Usually even with $1200 session BR I don't even get a quad. If I do manage one, it isn't aces or 2-4s. Almost always my BR goes straight down to zero. Over and over again. My Vegas trip was the worst ever. I played lots of Bonus poker for quarters and still lost a bundle.

I know VP is a streaky game, but damn. Any tips for busting out of this slump? If it goes on for much longer I will have to give it up. Time for some voodoo?

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For 98.98 DDB, you would need a bank roll of about $36000 betting $1 denom at 5 coins per deal/draw to have a 99% probability of hitting a NRF as shown in the screenshot below.

I think you still have to careful because the majorities of online casinos buys or license from a third party software developer their gaming platform. Online casinos in most of the cases are licensing the gaming platforms. Only the biggest one has developed their own gaming platform. It is very important because those casinos won't be responsible for any system vulnerabilities. They are unlikely to refund as well.

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Originally Posted by Rob.Singer

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

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Originally Posted by blackhole

I don’t know why anyone would come here doubting the math and questioning why their getting their asses kicked.

If you loss 50K in a year, just get another 50K and keep playing. Keep repeating this strategy. Don’t worry, it’ll all work out within 20 years. The math is your god. Listen and pray to it before you enter any casinos.

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I put my first machine play down 23 years ago with just $23 in my pocket. When I got through with that play my bankroll was up to $38. When I got through with the next play,....a week later I had $1200 in my pocket.....a month later I had 5K in my pocket. That's how I started. I've never gone back the other way and busted out. Fuck a bustout.

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And do you wanna prove THAT?

No wonder your life couldn't handle not posting on forums. You'd go INSANE! if you didn't have a place to concoct all your silly gambling fabrications.

I can see the gravestone already. It says:

HERE LIES 'ol mickey
His hands always sticky
Tall tales abound
More than his belly is round

His casino adventures
Cost him his dentures
His old junk car
Was won at some bar

His life began fuzzy
A hobo...was he?
He'd hop on a train
Cause he had no brain

With no education
He'd sleep with vegetation
A girlfriend you say?
Ha!...NO FREAKIN' WAY

His life has meant nothing
Aside from his puffing
A lonely old man
In the frying pan

Yes, now that he's old
He's chasing fool's gold
The tribes are his latest
Fabrication hiatus

So sit down my friend
You're close to your end
Close another bar
Cause that's who you are

The end. :)

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This was so bad, I'm gonna have to re-post the "Singer at the Bat" thread. Oh well, I guess another generation will get to read a classic.