Sportsbetting Anguish

In another thread I explained how, even though I dropped betting sports around 3 years ago after proving to a very disgusted LVA Sports forum run by self-proclaimed luminary Fezzik, exactly how great my picks that season turned out to be, I made a fairly large/very difficult 4-team parlay bet to cover.

Well, in typical NFL fashion, my first two bets actually covered, meaning I now need San Diego to lose by 2 or less points tonight and the 49ers to win by 4 if I want to collect what looks like around $49,000 if I read these tickets right -- which is probably off some since I've never bet a parlay in my life. GO CHARGERS!

Please explain this to me since I don't know anything about sports betting. You said:

"I now need San Diego to lose by 2 or less points tonight and the 49ers to win by 4"

Does this mean that San Diego has to lose by 2 or less points, or can SD win? Does San Franciso have to win by 4 or can they win by more than 4?

SD has to either lose by 1 or 2 points, tie, or win for me to cover, since I got the game @ Balt -2.5.
For me to win the game tomorror night, since I got it @ SF -3, the 49ers have to win that game by 4 or more points.

OK, Philly crushes the Jets 45-19; NE blasts Denver 41-23; and tonight SD destroys the Ravens 34-14. These were all suppose to be close. Now I'm 3-0 in my four-team parlay. Am I a sports betting genius or what--much like I've been with the development of my Singer VP Play strategy? So now I need SF to win by 4 or more tomorrow and about 50 grand of casino money is mine.

Too bad the LVA Sports Einsteins seen't enjoying yet another Singer run!

I would seriously consider hedging this to guarantee a profit. You could shop for a +3 1/2 and put 12 to 15K on Pitt, or just take the +3 and do the same. The reason I think this may be a good ideas is that San Diego winning the game last night provides Pitt an opportunity to take over first place in their division. This also means Pitt could secure a first round bye and possible home field (since they beat the Patriots), so the game becomes huge for Pitt. Now if Big Ben doesn't play, it's all problematic, but I have to think if he can walk, he'll play. I'd hedge a chunk of this.

Of course, if you're dead set against hedging before the game, you may want to consider it if SF is up at half. If you can bet Pitt the second half with the opportunity to win both wagers, that's a great spot to be in. But, as I said, I'd hedge this before the game started.

redietz, I know you know what you're talking about, but I am as unprepared for hedging at this point as I am in how I was knowing how to/why to do it from the start. I know why you guys do that though--sort of provides the safety valve. I've never gone that route with my bets, and I don't have the cash to make the proper hedge anyway.

I agree with all the Pittsburgh motivational angles you mentioned after Baltimore lost last night, but that didn't make Big Ben heal any faster either. He's still hurting, and I believe his team is playing a better team in their stadium anyway. While I've talked to sportsbettors who have 6 figures riding on games every week in the NFL, I've never had so much riding on a single game. I won't do this ever again even if I somehow win it!

Well, I'll just say "nice job" on the wager to this point and wish you well. The game is interesting in that it was all SF money initially through Saturday, and now it'll be Pitt money. The Steelers have generated very few turnovers this year, and they are facing a team that doesn't provide many. But it's also the first time this QB is facing Pitt's defense, so that usually doesn't go well for the young QB. Should be a war.

I thought Big Ben had torn all his ankle ligaments after I saw the hit last week -- was stunned it was a sprain and he came back in. But the man likes pain killers, evidently.

Good luck.

Wow, I am showing my true ignorance here about sports betting, but here goes...

Rob: do you win anything at this point if you "cash" your ticket or "sell it back" or sell it to another?

If SF loses tonight, is your ticket worth anything or was it all or nothing?

And if you were to "hedge" with a bet that the Steelers win tonight, would you bet enough just to cover your original $6,000 outlay? Or how does that hedge work?

The only hedge bet in a casino that I am familiar with is betting a "craps" on the come out roll to "insure" your passline bet. Otherwise, every "hedge" bet only adds to the house advantage.

He gets nada if SF doesn't cover, but he could sell the ticket easily enough. That's why a hedge would work, and why I recommended 12-15K. It gets your money back and gives you a nice profit. Plus you have wiggle room if SF is up at halftime (by three or more). You could bet the Steelers in the second half. You therefore try to win both the -3 parlay bet and the halftime bet. Rob's in great position here to be safe, greedy, or both.

It's all or nothing for me. I'm not going out today anyway.

The only "other" way I get paid something if SF doesn't win by at least 4 is if they win by only 3. That's the line I got on all 3 tickets, and if the game cover ties, I win as if the tickets were 3 team parlays. I think they pay around 5:1 in that case.

redietz, do I have this correct: Rob could sell the ticket now for $12k to $15k ?? The old Wall Street saying comes to mind... Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered.

If I were sitting in Nevada with Rob, I would be more than happy to buy that ticket for 12-15K. It's easier, and less of a hassle, if Rob has cash on hand, to just hedge the thing yourself. Rob has 50K or thereabouts coming back if he wins. He has 6K invested. I suggested 12-15K as my hedge just because I like the idea of him getting his money back plus enough to do it again (if he loses). If he wins, he loses the 12K to 15K hedge, but that still leaves him with 35K to 37K. I would never go all or nothing on an NFL game, but that's just me.

Technically, what I would actually do (if I were laying -3) is shop my brains out for the best place to buy the +3 line now available to a +4. If the cost of doing this were too exorbitant, I'd just hedge with a +3.

I'm wondering if this project of Rob's will wind up anywhere on the LVA boards. It'll be tough to find fault with this project.

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Originally Posted by redietz

I'm wondering if this project of Rob's will wind up anywhere on the LVA boards. It'll be tough to find fault with this project.

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That would be funny because if it's anything like how those idiots reacted to my big vp hits I wrote about over the years in Gaming Today, they'll ask for picture proof, then when they get it they'll say I photo-shopped everything. Their envy is non-stop.

I haven't the time, desire, or experience to do anything other than to live with my original bet tonight. It was a one time shot after getting a silly idea into my head of a way to recoup the expenses of this vacation. I can handle the loss and I'm not really expecting a single football game to cooperate with me. If I win I'm a genius, if I lose I'm only three quarters of a genius!

Here's another bunch of baloney the LVA clowns will spout if Alan drags this possible incredible bet over there. They'll have no choice but to accuse him of altering the posting times so they can say some of the games were already in the books before I posted about the parlay.

I won't be doing it, Rob. As I already told Frank Kneeland when we had lunch at Caesars-- I'm finished there. Really, finished.

Well, I can vouch for no past posting -- but I'm banned from LVA, so no help there.

I think some of them already know. It might get posted if I lose so they can cheer my losing $6000.

It's 6-0 at the half---in my favor. I have to win by at least four. It could be worse....a LOT worse, even though I'be only got a nearly invisible 2 pt. cushion. I like Ben's gimpy ankle too. Here we go. I have a chance.

So now we're heading into the final quarter, with a 13-3 lead. Is this real....or am I being teased?

Like Red Auerbach, I'm lighting up that great big cigar! 9 minutes left, 20-3 is the score. Fezzik, move over you fraud, Alan Boston, get outta town you junkie; perpetual Czech, cry me a river you chump! With a bigger win coming up than ANY of you have ever experienced, maybe Anthony Curtis ought to hire ME to sell picks to the losers.

Is the Fat Lady about to take the stage?

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

Is the Fat Lady about to take the stage?

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You betcha! And tomorrow morning I'm headed out to pick up the loot. The only question is how much.

Howd'ya like them apples, Lurkerposter?!!

I understand there was a whole chorus of fat ladies! Congratulations Champ!

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

I understand there was a whole chorus of fat ladies! Congratulations Champ!

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Thanks Alan! This very well may be the sweetest gambling win of my life. I spent a whole two hours studying teams to do this. Those sportsbettors I mentioned....they used to rag on me because I never used math, hedging, actuary skills, buy downs, or any of that kind of stuff to make my weekly posted picks. I simply used my head and they hated that I did so well for that one year--just like I did on this amazing parlay bet.

I called the three casinos where I bought the tickets. Right now the closest I can get to a final total based on the ticket odds & vig is a $49,181 profit. I'll post the actual amount tomorrow.

God Bless America!

Rob, please recap the bets and payoffs when you can. Also why these particular bets/picks?

This an an official congratulations -- very nice score. Ka-Ching!!!

When you posted the four teams, I thought -- hmmm, that Patriots/Eagles combo makes sense. Was neutral on San Diego, but Pitt scared me to death. Turns out Ben playing helped San Fran -- a bit of hubris that a crippled Ben would be better than a healthy Batch.

Very nice score -- but one little recommendation if you ever do this again: If you like four teams and one is separate in time like that -- just bet the first three. You can always launch the whole wad on the fourth later, and you can shop around for the absolute best number.

Well done.

Rob, congratulations again. They pay by check, I hope? Yes, your good buddies at the LVA have taken note. But as a point of correction it wasn't you who made me stop posting there. I came to that decision after lunch with Frank.

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

Rob, congratulations again. They pay by check, I hope? Yes, your good buddies at the LVA have taken note. But as a point of correction it wasn't you who made me stop posting there. I came to that decision after lunch with Frank.

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About you stopping posting on LVA, I already read that you decided that while talking to Frank during your lunch together.

I went out to collect on my tickets today. Had to go to Reno for one of them. So we stopped for an early lunch at BJ's outside Carson City on the way back. Excellent bar snacks and their delicious beer made for a good way to celebrate the surprising win.

No, I only accept cash from casino wins. Size doesn't matter. I have always had that policy ever since I used to foolishly cash personal checks at cashier cages back when I was a terribly misled AP. They make you produce all sorts of identification, a credit card, and they run your credit. So in turn, when they ask me if I'd like a check, I simply tell them if they will show me their Dunn & Bradstreet, their company credit card, and their owner's picture I'D and if all looked OK to me, then I'd accept their check. If not, I want cash. I'm always given cash. So my wife has $49,804 stuffed in her purse right now and we're hitting the bank shortly. I have the original $6k with me.

BTW, my new smartphone came and I'm using it.

Have a good dinner --- food tastes better when it's on the house!!

Thanks! My wife's cooking homemade taco soup for everyone tonight, then she & I are watching the grandchildren while the young people go out. My son is still in the army so I hope he behaves.....

Everything has finally quieted down about me on LVA. One has to wonder how they'll possibly go on! In fact, the pure white trash threads about BAGIANT's exploits aren't even a hot topic as we get closer to Christmas.

I did see however, that our friend Lurkerposter has congratulated me for such a nice & extraordinary NFL win. He added in other criticism-laced anti-Singer nonsense, but all in all it was nice to see something positive come from him for a change. But can you just IMAGINE the amount of added jealousy....and accompanying irritation....arcimedes experienced upon seeing how I scored such a huge win -- and a win by not relying on only AP math baloney--just as I've always done with my video poker strategy? God, seeing the forlorn look on his ragged face would ALONE be worth its weight in GOLD!

Thank you NFL and the Eagles, the Patriots, the Chargers, and especially the 49ers for allowing me this fabulous opportunity!