Historic Event -- NFL

For those who follow the NFL, a very interesting event yesterday. Road teams went into this week 29 games over .500 ATS, an unprecedented record. This week, the home teams went 12-0, also an unprecedented record.

As to whether the 12-0 was the result of value having been built into lines distorted by the accumulated -29 record, I would say marginally. The power ratings used to establish NFL spreads don't really change much based on short-term samples, although whether half a season is short-term can be debated.

All in all, a tribute to variance, more than anything. Striking and unprecedented.

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Originally Posted by redietz

For those who follow the NFL, a very interesting event yesterday. Road teams went into this week 29 games over .500 ATS, an unprecedented record. This week, the home teams went 12-0, also an unprecedented record.

As to whether the 12-0 was the result of value having been built into lines distorted by the accumulated -29 record, I would say marginally. The power ratings used to establish NFL spreads don't really change much based on short-term samples, although whether half a season is short-term can be debated.

All in all, a tribute to variance, more than anything. Striking and unprecedented.

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Impressive fun fact Red. Unfortunately for me, after a good morning games showing I bucked that trend in the afternoon and evening by backing the Packers & Patriots. Ouch!

Technically the Jaguars were the home team in the London game. And the Thursday night game was won by the visiting team, so there is no perfect weekend.

But it does set up an interesting situation for many of those freebie contests at many casinos were the players make their picks on the kiosks. Here in Las Vegas for example the stations casino football contest includes the Thursday night game as well as the London game. But many others like Boyd, Rampart, Hard Rock do not include either as you can make your picks right up until 10am (1pm east coast time). And on all these kiosk games there are several quick pick options for those who don't want to be bothered picking every game. There is usually a favorite quick pick, a home team quick pick and a random quick pick.

So that sets up a situation were there are likely thousands, maybe tens of thousands of players that are currently 12-0 heading into the Monday night game, rooting for the Giants. And should the Giants manage to beat the Cowboys, and there were thousands of weekly contest winners, they go to the tie breaker which is total. points on the Monday night game. That too there is a default setting usually around 42 points for those that don't want to be bothered.

Imagine if the Giants win and it falls on that default total. You might have 5000 people sharing the weekly prize getting one hell of a lot less than expected. Even if the total didn't fall on the default setting number, most people pick a number in the 40s, so you very probably could have hundreds of people sharing that weekly prize. Would be reminiscent of that scene from the Bruce Almighty movie were 10's of thousands of people all won the lottery and were expecting big payouts and ended up winning like $17.

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

Technically the Jaguars were the home team in the London game. And the Thursday night game was won by the visiting team, so there is no perfect weekend.

But it does set up an interesting situation for many of those freebie contests at many casinos were the players make their picks on the kiosks. Here in Las Vegas for example the stations casino football contest includes the Thursday night game as well as the London game. But many others like Boyd, Rampart, Hard Rock do not include either as you can make your picks right up until 10am (1pm east coast time). And on all these kiosk games there are several quick pick options for those who don't want to be bothered picking every game. There is usually a favorite quick pick, a home team quick pick and a random quick pick.

So that sets up a situation were there are likely thousands, maybe tens of thousands of players that are currently 12-0 heading into the Monday night game, rooting for the Giants. And should the Giants manage to beat the Cowboys, and there were thousands of weekly contest winners, they go to the tie breaker which is total. points on the Monday night game. That too there is a default setting usually around 42 points for those that don't want to be bothered.

Imagine if the Giants win and it falls on that default total. You might have 5000 people sharing the weekly prize getting one hell of a lot less than expected. Even if the total didn't fall on the default setting number, most people pick a number in the 40s, so you very probably could have hundreds of people sharing that weekly prize. Would be reminiscent of that scene from the Bruce Almighty movie were 10's of thousands of people all won the lottery and were expecting big payouts and ended up winning like $17.

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KewlJ, please. Obviously for betting purposes, there was no home team in the London game. And the Thursday game was covered by Arizona, who was at home. So yes, it was a 12-0 week.

100% incorrect Redeitz. For PRACTICAL purposes there was No home team. For betting purposes there was as designated by the NFL.

As proof, If you had walked up to any sportsbook and asked For $110 wager on every home team, you would have lost Jacksonville.

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

100% incorrect Redeitz. For PRACTICAL purposes there was No home team. For betting purposes there was as designated by the NFL.

As proof, If you had walked up to any sportsbook and asked For $110 wager on every home team, you would have lost Jacksonville.

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KewlJ, if you want to count the game and results in the category of "Jacksonville being at home," that's great. The country needs more idiosyncratic sports gamblers. For those who actually care about their wagering, it goes into the category of "neutral field" and specifically "London."

If you go to any sports book manager and ask what home field advantage was assigned to Jacksonville for being the "home team" in London, you would be told zero. If I had been doing an interview and had been asked, "Who is the home team?" and answered, "Jacksonville is playing at home," I would have been called out as an idiot. So you are parsing words in a ridiculous fashion that serves nobody.

Not that there's anything wrong with that.

Oh yeah, you got the SF/Arizona result 100% wrong, but failed to acknowledge that for some reason.

You know, I took time out of my relatively busy Monday to report this here because I thought people would want to know it, not to toot my horn. Because anybody in the business is completely aware of it, but it hasn't gotten much mention in public. So kewlJ decides it didn't happen -- for the reasons Jacksonville, playing in London, was at home, and because he thought Arizona was favored over SF.

What the hell? Really? I broke my WoV self-banning to report it with my 51st post because I thought it was newsworthy and nobody mentioned it. I'm going to go over there and apologize for posting because kewlJ showed me the error of my report.

You guys are just full-out whack jobs.

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Originally Posted by redietz

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

100% incorrect Redeitz. For PRACTICAL purposes there was No home team. For betting purposes there was as designated by the NFL.

As proof, If you had walked up to any sportsbook and asked For $110 wager on every home team, you would have lost Jacksonville.

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KewlJ, if you want to count the game and results in the category of "Jacksonville being at home," that's great. The country needs more idiosyncratic sports gamblers. For those who actually care about their wagering, it goes into the category of "neutral field" and specifically "London."

If you go to any sports book manager and ask what home field advantage was assigned to Jacksonville for being the "home team" in London, you would be told zero. If I had been doing an interview and had been asked, "Who is the home team?" and answered, "Jacksonville is playing at home," I would have been called out as an idiot. So you are parsing words in a ridiculous fashion that serves nobody.

Not that there's anything wrong with that.

Oh yeah, you got the SF/Arizona result 100% wrong, but failed to acknowledge that for some reason.

You know, I took time out of my relatively busy Monday to report this here because I thought people would want to know it, not to toot my horn. Because anybody in the business is completely aware of it, but it hasn't gotten much mention in public. So kewlJ decides it didn't happen -- for the reasons Jacksonville, playing in London, was at home, and because he thought Arizona was favored over SF.

What the hell? Really? I broke my WoV self-banning to report it with my 51st post because I thought it was newsworthy and nobody mentioned it. I'm going to go over there and apologize for posting because kewlJ showed me the error of my report.

You guys are just full-out whack jobs.

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What the fuck is your problem Redietz?

When I glanced at your thread, I failed to notice the ATS and thought you were simply pointing out that all the home teams (in the USA) won on Sunday, as that was a top story on ESPN. So I pointed out that the Thursday night game, which counts as part of the weeks game the home team didn't win. They did cover.

I don't know what to tell you, the NFL designates a home team for these London based games. It counts as one of that teams 8 home games (and screws their fans out of a home game). Is there any advantage for that "home team" as far as betting? No, none that I can see. I guess as the home team they get to choose what color Jersey they want to wear and the away team has to match up. No real advantage there, except phycological. (remember about 20 years ago when Home teams sometimes decided to where their Road Jersey's so the Cowboys had to wear the blue Jerseys that for a number of years they had a worse record when wearing?)

I didn't say there was any advantage to Jacksonville being the Home team, But officially Jacksonville was the home team, so not every home team won and covered. I don't know what you are getting so bent out of shape about.

All I did was add the impact of the contests that many local casinos run each week. Being that Most Casinos only use the sunday games (Stations being the exception) and that there is a quick pick feature picking the home teams, many of these contests are going to have hundreds, if not thousands of participants sharing the weekly prize, where they normally have 1 or 2 winners.

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

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Originally Posted by redietz

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

100% incorrect Redeitz. For PRACTICAL purposes there was No home team. For betting purposes there was as designated by the NFL.

As proof, If you had walked up to any sportsbook and asked For $110 wager on every home team, you would have lost Jacksonville.

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KewlJ, if you want to count the game and results in the category of "Jacksonville being at home," that's great. The country needs more idiosyncratic sports gamblers. For those who actually care about their wagering, it goes into the category of "neutral field" and specifically "London."

If you go to any sports book manager and ask what home field advantage was assigned to Jacksonville for being the "home team" in London, you would be told zero. If I had been doing an interview and had been asked, "Who is the home team?" and answered, "Jacksonville is playing at home," I would have been called out as an idiot. So you are parsing words in a ridiculous fashion that serves nobody.

Not that there's anything wrong with that.

Oh yeah, you got the SF/Arizona result 100% wrong, but failed to acknowledge that for some reason.

You know, I took time out of my relatively busy Monday to report this here because I thought people would want to know it, not to toot my horn. Because anybody in the business is completely aware of it, but it hasn't gotten much mention in public. So kewlJ decides it didn't happen -- for the reasons Jacksonville, playing in London, was at home, and because he thought Arizona was favored over SF.

What the hell? Really? I broke my WoV self-banning to report it with my 51st post because I thought it was newsworthy and nobody mentioned it. I'm going to go over there and apologize for posting because kewlJ showed me the error of my report.

You guys are just full-out whack jobs.

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What the fuck is your problem Redietz?

When I glanced at your thread, I failed to notice the ATS and thought you were simply pointing out that all the home teams (in the USA) won on Sunday, as that was a top story on ESPN. So I pointed out that the Thursday night game, which counts as part of the weeks game the home team didn't win. They did cover.

I don't know what to tell you, the NFL designates a home team for these London based games. It counts as one of that teams 8 home games (and screws their fans out of a home game). Is there any advantage for that "home team" as far as betting? No, none that I can see. I guess as the home team they get to choose what color Jersey they want to wear and the away team has to match up. No real advantage there, except phycological. (remember about 20 years ago when Home teams sometimes decided to where their Road Jersey's so the Cowboys had to wear the blue Jerseys that for a number of years they had a worse record when wearing?)

I didn't say there was any advantage to Jacksonville being the Home team, But officially Jacksonville was the home team, so not every home team won and covered. I don't know what you are getting so bent out of shape about.

All I did was add the impact of the contests that many local casinos run each week. Being that Most Casinos only use the sunday games (Stations being the exception) and that there is a quick pick feature picking the home teams, many of these contests are going to have hundreds, if not thousands of participants sharing the weekly prize, where they normally have 1 or 2 winners.

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Welcome back:rolleyes::cool:
Look at all the fun you've been missing.;)

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Originally Posted by MaxPen

Welcome back:rolleyes::cool:
Look at all the fun you've been missing.;)

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Um...did I go somewhere? And more importantly, did you miss me MaxPen? Awww....how sweet. :cool:

Let's hope redietz has finally been shamed into posting his impressive/professional/highly sought after picks BEFORE the games are actually played.

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Originally Posted by redietz

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

Technically the Jaguars were the home team in the London game. And the Thursday night game was won by the visiting team, so there is no perfect weekend.

But it does set up an interesting situation for many of those freebie contests at many casinos were the players make their picks on the kiosks. Here in Las Vegas for example the stations casino football contest includes the Thursday night game as well as the London game. But many others like Boyd, Rampart, Hard Rock do not include either as you can make your picks right up until 10am (1pm east coast time). And on all these kiosk games there are several quick pick options for those who don't want to be bothered picking every game. There is usually a favorite quick pick, a home team quick pick and a random quick pick.

So that sets up a situation were there are likely thousands, maybe tens of thousands of players that are currently 12-0 heading into the Monday night game, rooting for the Giants. And should the Giants manage to beat the Cowboys, and there were thousands of weekly contest winners, they go to the tie breaker which is total. points on the Monday night game. That too there is a default setting usually around 42 points for those that don't want to be bothered.

Imagine if the Giants win and it falls on that default total. You might have 5000 people sharing the weekly prize getting one hell of a lot less than expected. Even if the total didn't fall on the default setting number, most people pick a number in the 40s, so you very probably could have hundreds of people sharing that weekly prize. Would be reminiscent of that scene from the Bruce Almighty movie were 10's of thousands of people all won the lottery and were expecting big payouts and ended up winning like $17.

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KewlJ, please. Obviously for betting purposes, there was no home team in the London game. And the Thursday game was covered by Arizona, who was at home. So yes, it was a 12-0 week.

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You mean my 49ers lay bet won? Sorry KJ Red is right. I don’t even know or care who technically the home team was in London.

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Originally Posted by dannyj

Sorry KJ Red is right. I don’t even know or care who technically the home team was in London.

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Completely ridiculous. You, nor I, nor Redietz gets to decide who is officially the home team. The NFL makes that distinction. And the Official NFL schedule says that on Sunday, Nov 3, 2019, the Jacksonville Jaguars hosted the Houston Texans in a game played in London and the home team, Jacksonville lost.

As a bettor, you can decide that isn't really a home game and chose not to count it as such, but you can't go making a statement like Redietz did that in an unprecedented development all home teams won, when the official NFL record books clearly says otherwise.

Similarly, on December 29, 2019, in Week 17 of the season, The Philadelphia Eagles, play an away game at the New York Giants. The Giants are likely to be a 3 or 4 win team, while the Eagles may very well need that game to make the playoffs. Eagles fans, who travel well anyway are likely to travel up the Jersey turnpike and probably have two-thirds of the fans in that stadium. Does that make the Eagles the home team and not the Giants?

These things can effect your or my decision as to how to bet the game, but it doesn't effect the official NFL record which will say the Giants are the home team. Same as the game being played in London doesn't change anything. The official NFL record says Jacksonville lost a home game to Houston. Redietz, nor you can change that.

Here's another one for you. In 2010, the Minnesota Vikings played a home game in Detroit when the roof of their stadium collapsed in a snow storm. As a bettor, that could have effected your decision in considering that a home game or not, but the record book shows that Minnesota played a home game in Detroit. You, or Redietz can't just decide you don't want to count that as a home game as far as stats and that is what Redietz did when he said the home teams went 12-0 on Sunday.

I mean for god sakes, the title of Redietz thread (on 2 forums) is Historic event - NFL. The historic event he is talking about is home teams winning all games, when the official NFL record book shows home teams at 12-1. Neither you nor he gets to decide what is a home game, so this claim of historical event can be made.

But you guys change the stats however you like. Hey guess what....The Eagles are undefeated....if you don't count the 4 losses.

Per the usual, KJ goes to refute someone and gets the facts tangled up. When he gets corrected he thinks the other person is the asshole. You can't make this shit up. KJ, you need to change your username here to LarryS.

And your argument doesn't hold water. Jacksonville was not playing at home and redietz was referring to teams playing on their home field.

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Originally Posted by Rob.Singer

Let's hope redietz has finally been shamed into posting his impressive/professional/highly sought after picks BEFORE the games are actually played.

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I'd like to know if he actually bets offshore.

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

Jacksonville was not playing at home and redietz was referring to teams playing on their home field.

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This definition doesn't work either Mickeycrimm. The Chicago Bears played "home games" 135 miles away from Chicago, at the University of Illinois, for a year or two while Soldier Field was renovated. The year Hurricane Katrina damaged the Superdome, the New Orleans Saints played "home games" at 3 different locations, LSU stadium, 80 miles away, San Antonio, 550 miles away, and Giants Stadium in New Jersey 1300 miles away. All were counted as "home games" despite not being on their regular home field.

And speaking of Giants Stadium (now Met Life Stadium), home to both the Giants and Jets, so when they play as they will this coming Sunday, someone is designated as the home team and someone as the away team. If the away team Jets win, it doesn't get counted as a home game, even though it is on their home field.

Look, I personally don't consider that Jacksonville played a home game last week. That's why I said "technically" when I first raised the issue. But the NFL does and they keep the records. And that is what we are talking about here....records. Redietz started a thread on 2 different sites, entitled "Historic Event - NFL" claiming the home teams went 12-0 for the first time ever on Sunday. But, the official NFL records says the home teams went 12-1, making it not the historical event that Redietz stated.

correction: Met Life Stadium is not the old Giants Stadium rebranded. It is a newer stadium, still shared by the Giants and Jets, built at the same location (parking lot of the old stadium).

I don't mean to pick on Redietz here. I have always gotten along ok, with Redietz and have nothing against him, but I don't even see how this is the big "event" that he proclaimed, even if you want to discount (or asterisk) the Jacksonville game. I mean I guess an interesting enough tidbit, but it is after the fact. :rolleyes: Now if Redietz or anyone had predicted or even better.....shared with me that home teams would win and cover all game or all but one game before the games were played, ahh yeah I might have been more excited about it. ;)

BTW, another "historic event" in sports involving home teams last week in that the visiting team won every game of the world series, never been done before. I am equally not excited about this tidbit after the fact. If someone had shared that would happen before the series started, then we would have something. :cool:

Reminds me of a situation I shared on a blackjack forum years ago. I shared numbers from a down swing period that I was on or had just completed. I knew it was pretty extreme, certainly one of the most extreme periods for me at the time. That is why I though it might be of interest to other blackjack players. So one of the "math Geek" guys posted a response that the chances of a swing like that were like 1.5 percent. :rolleyes: I mean was that supposed to make me feel better? It just actually happened, so telling me how rare it was after the fact, didn't help and had absolutely no meaning.

That is sort of what I feel about Redietz's great "Historic Events" proclamation. Has no real meaning after the fact. Probably why there was not a whole lot of interest in the topic on either site. Now again, if he had told us say, last week..... :cool:

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

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Originally Posted by dannyj

Sorry KJ Red is right. I don’t even know or care who technically the home team was in London.

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Completely ridiculous. You, nor I, nor Redietz gets to decide who is officially the home team. The NFL makes that distinction. And the Official NFL schedule says that on Sunday, Nov 3, 2019, the Jacksonville Jaguars hosted the Houston Texans in a game played in London and the home team, Jacksonville lost.

As a bettor, you can decide that isn't really a home game and chose not to count it as such, but you can't go making a statement like Redietz did that in an unprecedented development all home teams won, when the official NFL record books clearly says otherwise.

Similarly, on December 29, 2019, in Week 17 of the season, The Philadelphia Eagles, play an away game at the New York Giants. The Giants are likely to be a 3 or 4 win team, while the Eagles may very well need that game to make the playoffs. Eagles fans, who travel well anyway are likely to travel up the Jersey turnpike and probably have two-thirds of the fans in that stadium. Does that make the Eagles the home team and not the Giants?

These things can effect your or my decision as to how to bet the game, but it doesn't effect the official NFL record which will say the Giants are the home team. Same as the game being played in London doesn't change anything. The official NFL record says Jacksonville lost a home game to Houston. Redietz, nor you can change that.

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KJ I’ll concede your point about the London home team. But, for some reason you fail to mention the SF/ Arizona game in which the home team lost but covered the spread which was exactly what redietz was talking about when he referenced ATS.

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Originally Posted by dannyj

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

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Originally Posted by dannyj

Sorry KJ Red is right. I don’t even know or care who technically the home team was in London.

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Completely ridiculous. You, nor I, nor Redietz gets to decide who is officially the home team. The NFL makes that distinction. And the Official NFL schedule says that on Sunday, Nov 3, 2019, the Jacksonville Jaguars hosted the Houston Texans in a game played in London and the home team, Jacksonville lost.

As a bettor, you can decide that isn't really a home game and chose not to count it as such, but you can't go making a statement like Redietz did that in an unprecedented development all home teams won, when the official NFL record books clearly says otherwise.

Similarly, on December 29, 2019, in Week 17 of the season, The Philadelphia Eagles, play an away game at the New York Giants. The Giants are likely to be a 3 or 4 win team, while the Eagles may very well need that game to make the playoffs. Eagles fans, who travel well anyway are likely to travel up the Jersey turnpike and probably have two-thirds of the fans in that stadium. Does that make the Eagles the home team and not the Giants?

These things can effect your or my decision as to how to bet the game, but it doesn't effect the official NFL record which will say the Giants are the home team. Same as the game being played in London doesn't change anything. The official NFL record says Jacksonville lost a home game to Houston. Redietz, nor you can change that.

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KJ I’ll concede your point about the London home team. But, for some reason you fail to mention the SF/ Arizona game in which the home team lost but covered the spread which was exactly what redietz was talking about when he referenced ATS.

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KJ doesn't admit mistakes. He always has some phony excuse. Everyone got redietz point except KJ the drama queen. He's doing nothing but starting some bullshit drama over nothing.

I'm sitting back waiting for one to threaten to "blow" the other one away..... :)

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

Jacksonville was not playing at home and redietz was referring to teams playing on their home field.

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This definition doesn't work either Mickeycrimm. The Chicago Bears played "home games" 135 miles away from Chicago, at the University of Illinois, for a year or two while Soldier Field was renovated. The year Hurricane Katrina damaged the Superdome, the New Orleans Saints played "home games" at 3 different locations, LSU stadium, 80 miles away, San Antonio, 550 miles away, and Giants Stadium in New Jersey 1300 miles away. All were counted as "home games" despite not being on their regular home field.

And speaking of Giants Stadium (now Met Life Stadium), home to both the Giants and Jets, so when they play as they will this coming Sunday, someone is designated as the home team and someone as the away team. If the away team Jets win, it doesn't get counted as a home game, even though it is on their home field.

Look, I personally don't consider that Jacksonville played a home game last week. That's why I said "technically" when I first raised the issue. But the NFL does and they keep the records. And that is what we are talking about here....records. Redietz started a thread on 2 different sites, entitled "Historic Event - NFL" claiming the home teams went 12-0 for the first time ever on Sunday. But, the official NFL records says the home teams went 12-1, making it not the historical event that Redietz stated.

correction: Met Life Stadium is not the old Giants Stadium rebranded. It is a newer stadium, still shared by the Giants and Jets, built at the same location (parking lot of the old stadium).

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KJ, could you jog my memory? When did the NFL start keeping stats on ATS results?

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Originally Posted by dannyj

KJ I’ll concede your point about the London home team. But, for some reason you fail to mention the SF/ Arizona game in which the home team lost but covered the spread which was exactly what redietz was talking about when he referenced ATS.

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

KJ doesn't admit mistakes. He always has some phony excuse. Everyone got redietz point except KJ the drama queen. He's doing nothing but starting some bullshit drama over nothing.

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I did admit I made a mistake and failed to notice that Redietz was talking about ATS when I first glanced at the thread. But I am happy to repost if it make you feel better.

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

When I glanced at your thread, I failed to notice the ATS and thought you were simply pointing out that all the home teams (in the USA) won on Sunday, as that was a top story on ESPN. So I pointed out that the Thursday night game, which counts as part of the weeks game the home team didn't win. They did cover.

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KJ, how many times has the home team covered in the Super Bowl?

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

KJ, how many times has the home team covered in the Super Bowl?

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Mickey, time to let go of this adversarial thing you think you have going on with me with all these snide remarks and attempted "gottch ya moments".

Maybe you are a person that requires a "foil", but I am just not interested.

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

KJ, how many times has the home team covered in the Super Bowl?

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Mickey, time to let go of this adversarial thing you think you have going on with me with all these snide remarks and attempted "gottch ya moments".

Maybe you are a person that requires a "foil", but I am just not interested.

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You are the one that got adverserial by insisting that redietz was wrong. No handicapper worth his salt would ever think the "visiting team" or "home team" covered in the London game. Redietz was talking about teams that were playing on their home field. Everyone got that but you. Teams playing on their home field went 12/0 not 12/1.