Originally Posted by
redietz
Axel,
I'm actually not looking to make friends and influence people, so unless I'm really playing something, I'm not going to list a bunch of maybes or "leans" or marginal opinions. This game, I honestly didn't watch a snap. I was working on XFL roster analysis, not only for wagering purposes but because Fanduel will have some 100K fantasy games the first week, and nobody knows anything, so that's an opportunity.
As far as the SB, it's one game, it's usually an anomaly, and most of the time there isn't much to learn. If the game had gone to Pick, I would have opened a KC +7 teaser and saved the other spot to hedge college hoop futures down the road. But it never went to Pick, so I passed. My thought processes this year went something like this:
1) Usually I bet no score first seven minutes or 7:30, but the lines were short, so that was a no go.
2) I'm looking for an excuse to bet Under, but that line wasn't it. SF plays a lot of zone, which one would think would lean to Under, but the KC receivers have so much speed that they get on top of the zone faster than any other team. Plus the SF safeties got burned on some third-and-long against Rodgers the previous game, so that was a no go.
3) I considered teasing the Under and leaving an open spot, but I wasn't thrilled with Under 61, either, so passed on that.
4) Usually I lean to trying one of the TE's for first TD, but with these two TE's as the dominant receivers in the game, that wasn't an option.
5) Looked for middle shots for QB's and such, but not many gaps for player props.
6) Usually I look for Under yardage props, but not for these two teams. I was concerned if KC got up early, it was going to get crazy in terms of yardage.
So my conclusion was to review XFL rosters and coaching staffs. The numbers should be out tonight. Futures are already available.
As far as publicly posting plays, this college basketball season provided the perfect example of why that would be a real dumb move. One of these days, I'll meet you, and we'll discuss. Let me know if you've seen or heard of the following, and if you haven't, give me some credit:
I'm not sure anybody noticed, but out of the first 250 college hoops games played with the new international line, roughly 150 went Under. Well, I anticipated that, even though that went opposite of what the NCAA was predicting. Now I messed up and did all kinds of extra three-point shooting analyses and wound up betting just 13 games (11-2), but had I ever posted the plays, any Winnebago-driving idiot would have seen exactly what I was doing. Had I just bulk-bet the damned thing, I would have made a killing. But noooooo, I had to overanalyze it.
Now that opening 250-game stretch led to certain consequences, and I am in the midst of exploiting those consequences late-season. Again, if anybody saw what I'm betting, it would take John Q. Citizen three seconds to know what I'm doing and be able to do it themselves.
This was the absolute perfect example of why one needs to keep one's mouth shut.
Congrats on the poker. XFL is going to be very interesting.
