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Stupid mob mentality decision.
You knew this was coming. Some people still don’t get it.
COVID-19 is just a “Super Flu” but it’s is highly contagious and the elderly are at risk.
The mortality rate for COVID-19 is almost 20% for the 80+ group.
I am at risk due to my age group.
Mickey Crimm is at HIGHER risk due to his age group and the fact he had a heart attack recently.
In Italy, the plan is to let those who are 80+ & really sick die.
Here are the facts: We just don’t have enough doctors, hospitals, ICU beds to treat COVID-19 if it became a full blown epidemic.
Here is one source of current COVID-19 mortality rates by age group:
https://www.vox.com/platform/amp/202...lderly-seniors
Vox is partisan garbage, but here is a neutral site which breaks down the difference between coronavirus and other diseases we've dealt with recently:
https://www.healthline.com/health-ne...)-flu-pandemic
Cliffs:
- Can't compare with 1918 Spanish Flu because medicine was in the dark ages in those days, even though it was only 102 years ago
- Can't compare with the 2009 Swine Flu because that had a 0.02% death rate, and most of those deaths were those who were already vulnerable. The average person had almost zero point zero chance of dying from it.
- Can't compare with 2003-04 SARS because that could not spread easily. It had a much higher death rate once you got it, but it had just about zero chance of spreading rapidly because symptoms were severe and quick, thus people who had it could be identified and isolated.
- Can't compare with 2014-2016 Ebola because, like SARS, it wasn't easily spreadable. Most of this was spread through body fluids, and it also had very severe and quick symptons. Again, these people were not walking around in society spreading it. Like SARS, it had a very high death rate, but again, not many people were likely to get it.
- Can't compare with the typical seasonal flu because that flu has a death rate of 0.1%, mostly concentrated in the already vulnerable. Again, the average person does not die from it, and even the vast majority of the most vulnerable recover from it.
COVID-19 is unique combo of a high death rate (though not nearly as high as 2003 SARS/2014 Ebola) and high likelihood of spreading quickly (like the 2009 Swine/H1N1 flu). We have never experienced anything like this before.
It also seems to have the ability to kill people over 40 who otherwise appear healthy. While this is not typical, it is happening more often than with the seasonal flu.
The only less-threatening thing about COVID-19 compared to the seasonal flu is that it doesn't kill children (or babies), while the seasonal flu does. However, this actually makes it spread more because children can carry it while being asymptomatic, and then spread it to adults. Children with the seasonal flu are usually kept home and away from most of the population.
Finally, the politicizing of this needs to stop, and I'm talking both sides.
This situation would be just as bad right now if Hillary or Bernie had won the 2016 election. This situation would be just as bad if we had socialized healthcare. Blaming Republicans for this is idiotic.
On the flip side, this is not a "media hoax" or "Democratic exaggeration in order to win the 2020 election". This is a serious threat which must not be dismissed. Too many Republicans have come to believe that this is all a phony manufactured frenzy in order to beat Trump. It's not.
Vox is very partisan, but the article was very reasonable, not political, and data driven.
Perhaps you should read something before you dismiss it by implying it is politicized?
Does that not seem like something you would criticize someone else for doing?
Outside of this I think you've dropped some pretty good info on both of the sites.
I've seen posts describing at least a few DT casinos using some social distancing by reducing the number of players at a table and shutting down every other machine.
Nice post Dan.
Dan wasn’t criticizing anyone; he simply expressed his views on Vox. He is sharing with me that he doesn’t think Vox is a good source.Quote:
Originally Posted by accountinquestion
This is a forum for people to talk, share ideas, etc. Not everyone is going to agree with everyone (about Vox article, etc). I asked a question about feedback on FarmVille and some wing nut started a flame war based on his/her warped views about me. The problem is when people cannot tolerate different views.
People can disagree (but there are limits). Sharing a personal opinion (on Vox) like what Dan did was not a criticism. Most people would say that was feedback.
I used the Vox article because it had data on mortality rates based on age group. Looking at the average mortality rate of COVID-19 is simply misleading, especially in the case of the elderly.
Here is a website on data on COVID-19
https://www.worldometers.info/corona...-demographics/
So if you are male, over a certain age, have cardio-vascular disease as a pre-existing condition, your odds when infected with COVID-19 are NOT good.
You just can't help yourself can you, moron? You just have to criticize. You just have to politicize. You think your opinion is the only one that counts around here. You're a lame-brained idiot. Where the hell do you get off saying he didn't read it. That's an insult of the highest order. That's all you are doing here. Insulting people for no good reason. Dan should ban you.Quote:
Originally Posted by accountinquestion
Complete bull shit Ex-Crement. You started it cunt. Do you want me to repost the catalyzing event ?Quote:
Originally Posted by Ex-AP
Go fuck yourself you pile of shit.
This precaution would have the same effect as pissing in the wind IMHO (and you may have the same opinion).Quote:
Originally Posted by wasilla
With the slowdown in Vegas I would be looking at the bingo halls. Fixed payouts but low attendance.
Hey! That's one of the best gambling/corona tips I've seen.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
I'd just add to make sure you sit in the back and as far away as you can from that 86 year old grandma with 32 trolls surrounding her who's chain smoking and hacking up a lung every few minutes.
Hazmat suit is optional.
I have witnesses and the forum has time-stamps of your post, e.g. 01-22-2020, 11:05 PMQuote:
Originally Posted by tableplayComplete bull shit Ex-Crement. You started it cunt. Do you want me to repost the catalyzing event ?Quote:
Originally Posted by Ex-AP
Go fuck yourself you pile of shit.
We saw you started the flame war like the village idiot that you are. Once a fraud, always a fraud.
tableplay, you like to lie but keep getting caught (by time stamps).
My response was time-stamped at 01-23-2020, 12:11 AM
Ex-Ap, you can't win this one. I specifically remember you flaming tableplay first. Shouldn't take long to find the offending post.Quote:
Originally Posted by Ex-API have witnesses and the forum has time-stamps of your post, e.g. 01-22-2020, 11:05 PMQuote:
Originally Posted by tableplayComplete bull shit Ex-Crement. You started it cunt. Do you want me to repost the catalyzing event ?Quote:
Originally Posted by Ex-AP
Go fuck yourself you pile of shit.
We saw you started the flame war like the village idiot that you are. Once a fraud, always a fraud.
tableplay, you like to lie but keep getting caught (by time stamps).
My response was time-stamped at 01-23-2020, 12:11 AM
As promised: https://vegascasinotalk.com/forum/sh...ll=1#post96067Quote:
Originally Posted by Ex-API have witnesses and the forum has time-stamps of your post, e.g. 01-22-2020, 11:05 PMQuote:
Originally Posted by tableplayComplete bull shit Ex-Crement. You started it cunt. Do you want me to repost the catalyzing event ?Quote:
Originally Posted by Ex-AP
Go fuck yourself you pile of shit.
We saw you started the flame war like the village idiot that you are. Once a fraud, always a fraud.
tableplay, you like to lie but keep getting caught (by time stamps).
My response was time-stamped at 01-23-2020, 12:11 AM
Ex-Crement you will ignore this post or not address the fact that you fired the first shot if you don't. And then, when you think the coast is clear, you will dip your feet in the pool again (i.e., sneak in some insults) just like you tried to do this time. This foot dip in the pool is proof in and of itself that you are a troll, since things had been quiet for a couple weeks until this "wingnut/Farmville" bullshit you posted last night. Naturally, you have tried to obfuscate what a sack of shit you are by your virtue-signalling posts about how much you care about people getting corono-virus. Most evil fucks choose to make new socks, but I guess you figured, you'd go the Florence Nightengale route. You also wrote several derogatory things about Mickey Crimm, who never did a thing to you, you fuck.
Anyhow, rot in hell.
So let me get this straight. Dan politicized this by dismissing the guys article because it comes from a website that is partisan when dealing with politics. I point this out, and I am the one politicizing!Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimmYou just can't help yourself can you, moron? You just have to criticize. You just have to politicize. You think your opinion is the only one that counts around here. You're a lame-brained idiot. Where the hell do you get off saying he didn't read it. That's an insult of the highest order. That's all you are doing here. Insulting people for no good reason. Dan should ban you.Quote:
Originally Posted by accountinquestion
Fail reasoning in full force.
Micky, your name from here on out is going to be Mr. Kruger, first name Dunning.
Also - You keep calling me the bitch and now you are wanting Dan to ban me. What happened to coming at me 4x harder? lol. Typical of a man who would follow Trump like you do. I think we all know who the real bitch is.
Mickey one day out of the hospital would kick your ass like you have never seen in your lifetime. Because he is like that and you would deserve it.Quote:
Originally Posted by accountinquestionSo let me get this straight. Dan politicized this by dismissing the guys article because it comes from a website that is partisan when dealing with politics. I point this out, and I am the one politicizing!Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimmYou just can't help yourself can you, moron? You just have to criticize. You just have to politicize. You think your opinion is the only one that counts around here. You're a lame-brained idiot. Where the hell do you get off saying he didn't read it. That's an insult of the highest order. That's all you are doing here. Insulting people for no good reason. Dan should ban you.Quote:
Originally Posted by accountinquestion
Fail reasoning in full force.
Micky, your name from here on out is going to be Mr. Kruger, first name Dunning.
Also - You keep calling me the bitch and now you are wanting Dan to ban me. What happened to coming at me 4x harder? lol. Typical of a man who would follow Trump like you do. I think we all know who the real bitch is.
And people like you who don’t like Trump are angry, jealous and full of hatred for a lifetime of bad decisions. You truly hate successful people who did it their way and thrived.
You probably should go over to WoV and hang out with the other liberal losers like BillyBoy. You seem to have a lot in common with him.
By the way, Go Fuck Yourself you liberal bastard! 😀
Oh.Quote:
Originally Posted by The BozMickey one day out of the hospital would kick your ass like you have never seen in your lifetime. Because he is like that and you would deserve it.Quote:
Originally Posted by accountinquestionSo let me get this straight. Dan politicized this by dismissing the guys article because it comes from a website that is partisan when dealing with politics. I point this out, and I am the one politicizing!Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
Fail reasoning in full force.
Micky, your name from here on out is going to be Mr. Kruger, first name Dunning.
Also - You keep calling me the bitch and now you are wanting Dan to ban me. What happened to coming at me 4x harder? lol. Typical of a man who would follow Trump like you do. I think we all know who the real bitch is.
And people like you who don’t like Trump are angry, jealous and full of hatred for a lifetime of bad decisions. You truly hate successful people who did it their way and thrived.
You probably should go over to WoV and hang out with the other liberal losers like BillyBoy. You seem to have a lot in common with him.
By the way, Go Fuck Yourself you liberal bastard! ��
So now Micky needs backup?
Bitch #2 lining up.
Welp we stayed on topic for a few posts before the usual fight club.
Hey Boz can we please get a zenking style rant if the government temporarily severely restricts or shuts down your business?
You must have missed some of my recent posts. I sold my business and retired at 55 in December. Still feel bad for my employees who will be losing income that they cannot afford to lose because of bad government decisions.Quote:
Originally Posted by mcap
As for me, I have homes in 3 states and have been traveling across the country since early January. No fears on my end about this. Currently in Florida doing my part to support small business.
Only regret is the profits I put in the Stock Market, but I feel good that if we survive this, opportunities will be everywhere. I am already thinking of ways to exploit this when it’s over, just like 07, the smart will find ways to make money.
My retirement hasn’t exactly started the way I wanted, but I’ve always lived life to the fullest and expect it only to get better.
Winners win, losers look for excuses.
Ahh well congrats on the early retirement then. Markets will be fine in due time, only badly hurts panickers or people forced to liquidate because of loss of needed income in this time with insufficient reserves which unfortunately is too many people. Piece of me was looking forward to an epic rant.
I’m sure I have a few more in me, just need the right situation.Quote:
Originally Posted by mcap
I know derogatory statements are not really your thing so I am going to help you out here.Quote:
Originally Posted by tableplay
I think what you meant to say was... Burn In Hell?
Yes, we do know who the real bitch is, YOU. A little sniveling bitch. Now go suck Bernie Sanders dick, comrade acuntinquestion.Quote:
Originally Posted by accountinquestionSo let me get this straight. Dan politicized this by dismissing the guys article because it comes from a website that is partisan when dealing with politics. I point this out, and I am the one politicizing!Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimmYou just can't help yourself can you, moron? You just have to criticize. You just have to politicize. You think your opinion is the only one that counts around here. You're a lame-brained idiot. Where the hell do you get off saying he didn't read it. That's an insult of the highest order. That's all you are doing here. Insulting people for no good reason. Dan should ban you.Quote:
Originally Posted by accountinquestion
Fail reasoning in full force.
Micky, your name from here on out is going to be Mr. Kruger, first name Dunning.
Also - You keep calling me the bitch and now you are wanting Dan to ban me. What happened to coming at me 4x harder? lol. Typical of a man who would follow Trump like you do. I think we all know who the real bitch is.
You asked Dan to ban me. You're weak. Those are facts. I don't care to chase you around in other threads and respond to everything you say. You're just freak. Interesting guy, but at the end of the day a real freak. There are many like you, just most have enough shame and sense to not constantly verbally fellate Trump.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimmYes, we do know who the real bitch is, YOU. A little sniveling bitch. Now go suck Bernie Sanders dick, comrade acuntinquestion.Quote:
Originally Posted by accountinquestionSo let me get this straight. Dan politicized this by dismissing the guys article because it comes from a website that is partisan when dealing with politics. I point this out, and I am the one politicizing!Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
Fail reasoning in full force.
Micky, your name from here on out is going to be Mr. Kruger, first name Dunning.
Also - You keep calling me the bitch and now you are wanting Dan to ban me. What happened to coming at me 4x harder? lol. Typical of a man who would follow Trump like you do. I think we all know who the real bitch is.
Look - I'll repeat this again. I skimmed over the Vox article looking to see if it was politicized. It wasn't. I found it strange the way Dan dismissed the article, given how he is always complaining about partisanship and the liberal media. It actually was well written and in-depth. (JUst not interesting to me, because it is very similar to other things I'd read). You can't whine about partisanship then do stuff like that. Not a good look. Pick one or the other.
I never asked him to "read Vox" or told him, or whatever it is you are claiming. Funny how you get all worked up about me using the word ventilators and then "putting words in your mouth". What I said was accurate and I can give you long well written articles on why the problem comes down to hospital bed and ventilators. You didn't know that, you just think it is socialism vs capitalism and thats why Italy is having the problem. Ok, I am not surprised. You are a simple guy, but you should at least have the sense to not go off the rails complaining about others "putting words in people's mouth" then do the exact same thing yourself.
I didn't actually mean to write Burn in Hell, but it is much more logical and I plan to use it next time I need an invective.Quote:
Originally Posted by monetI know derogatory statements are not really your thing so I am going to help you out here.Quote:
Originally Posted by tableplay
I think what you meant to say was... Burn In Hell?
Thanks Monet.
Dr. Drew says we don't have a ventilator problem. I think I will take his word over yours. Now, wash your vagina, dude. It's stinkin' up the place.Quote:
Originally Posted by accountinquestionYou asked Dan to ban me. You're weak. Those are facts. I don't care to chase you around in other threads and respond to everything you say. You're just freak. Interesting guy, but at the end of the day a real freak. There are many like you, just most have enough shame and sense to not constantly verbally fellate Trump.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimmYes, we do know who the real bitch is, YOU. A little sniveling bitch. Now go suck Bernie Sanders dick, comrade acuntinquestion.Quote:
Originally Posted by accountinquestion
Look - I'll repeat this again. I skimmed over the Vox article looking to see if it was politicized. It wasn't. I found it strange the way Dan dismissed the article, given how he is always complaining about partisanship and the liberal media. It actually was well written and in-depth. (JUst not interesting to me, because it is very similar to other things I'd read). You can't whine about partisanship then do stuff like that. Not a good look. Pick one or the other.
I never asked him to "read Vox" or told him, or whatever it is you are claiming. Funny how you get all worked up about me using the word ventilators and then "putting words in your mouth". What I said was accurate and I can give you long well written articles on why the problem comes down to hospital bed and ventilators. You didn't know that, you just think it is socialism vs capitalism and thats why Italy is having the problem. Ok, I am not surprised. You are a simple guy, but you should at least have the sense to not go off the rails complaining about others "putting words in people's mouth" then do the exact same thing yourself.
Mickey has switched from Trump who had his own TV show to Dr Drew who had (has?) his own TV show.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
Earlier today I googled to see what Dr Drews take is. I listened to 3 minutes of it and he just kept saying "don't listen to the media". I was very curious as to what the media was actually saying that we should be ignoring. It really seemed like he was trying to be relevant with a certain base of listeners. After 3 minutes he couldn't stop being asinine so I didn't listen to the last 3 minutes.
Anyway, I don't know what to tell you. I'll post this and yes, 538 is probably biased because they're tied into the NYT and therefore likely fake news. If you wish to read it though.
*WARNING* - Not propaganda. Based on research and biased with facts.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...0-ventilators/
Try as you might you can't discredit Dr. Drew. He's a professional that knows tons more about it than you. But of course, you've got to think of something to discredit him because it doesn't fit your negative narrative. And Penske is not a conservative.Quote:
Originally Posted by accountinquestionMickey has switched from Trump who had his own TV show to Dr Drew who had (has?) his own TV show.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
Earlier today I googled to see what Dr Drews take is. I listened to 3 minutes of it and he just kept saying "don't listen to the media". I was very curious as to what the media was actually saying that we should be ignoring. It really seemed like he was trying to be relevant with a certain base of listeners. After 3 minutes he couldn't stop being asinine so I didn't listen to the last 3 minutes.
Anyway, I don't know what to tell you. I'll post this and yes, 538 is probably biased because they're tied into the NYT and therefore likely fake news. If you wish to read it though.
*WARNING* - Not propaganda. Based on research and biased with facts.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...0-ventilators/
I also noticed that this quickly went from being Las Vegas Casino Closures due to Coronavirus fears to straight up fighting. :/Quote:
Originally Posted by mcap
Dan's post asserted Influenza is nothing like the Coronavirus and couldn't/shouldn't be compared. That is wrong. Read up and verify the facts--the OVERALL facts and not just the cherry-picked ones.
This current virus is no different than coming down with the flu. The entire situation is completely overblown. Most people with scratchy throats and runny noses with a bit of a cough still go to work or to restaurants etc. Now they want you to get a "test" if you have these symptoms. Most will be negative. Some won't. And what's the difference? NOTHING....except a positive test means a likely loss of livelihood since you cannot go to work for weeks. Anyone ever get stopped from going to work with a cold?
influenza kills 20,000-55,000 here every year. Who's the most vulnerable? Yup, the ELDERLY with existing problems. How about Coronavirus? Well, as of today there's been a whole 85 deaths. Are the elderly with problems at risk? BINGO...YES! in fact, these people see at risk no matter what.
It's also no secret that liberals everywhere are hoping this ends Trump's presidency. Some hope he gets the virus, while they cheer with every drop in the DJIA. So it absolutely IS political. The frenzied hoarding, closures, and stupid CYA emails that seem to be coming from every business around are simply responding to what they hear on TV.
Wise up.
I don't get it either.
I figure if they just let everyone catch it we lose 3 to 4% of the world population.
Tanking the world economy and quarantining everyone seems like we will lose 10x or more.
If the food supply stops you can expect brother killing brother.
Probably what they want so they can take over the world through the military.
I think MaxPen knows more about this and can give us the prediction.
Notice how the mainstream media is very careful not to show side by side mortality numbers between influenza and the Coronovirus (Ron, you made a good point about the much larger death numbers of standard influenza) ? Influenza would dwarf the number of Corona deaths. This is looking more and more like a power grab (prison planet) at every turn (like they say : never let a crisis go to waste, even a perceived crisis).Quote:
Originally Posted by monet
If you have elderly parents or other elderly you are fond of, then you are more considerate. The less elderly/older people you know and the more of a sociopath you are, then the less one gives a shit about the virus.Quote:
Originally Posted by monet
I have my ideas on how to handle it, but it takes too much coordination for a free society. Let the appropriate young all get sick and then go into quarantine. Then they're done with it and you have herd immunity. This is America though, and there are tradeoffs. Medical staff with children etc. Can't really do that without some crazy government take over. So instead, we'll suffer with this half-assed approach but still the best we can do.
Also, you are asking all of the medical staff to deal with piles of bodies and turning down a lot of people to die elsewhere as part of their job. Politicians would have to deal with that and the stock market still tanks.
It is not about the numbers right now. Hell 100 dead (half in one senior community) is nothing anymore. That is a couple mass shootings. :( It is about what is projected in the very near future, 30 days from now.Quote:
Originally Posted by tableplay
Look on Friday (March 13) we hit 1000 cases in the US. Today 4 days later we went over 6000 cases. That is a 600% increase! Influenza is never, ever on that kind of trajectory. They use models that tell what is likely to happen, similar to how AP's use simulations. And the models indicate a pretty beak picture. Now maybe something will happen that will change that trajectory. But for now those models are the best predictor of what is coming and not all that far down the road.
You comparing the current death and infection rate, very early in this pandemic to influenza YEARLY totals is ridiculous. The analogy I used on another forum is it would be like standing on the deck of the Titanic 10 minutes after it had hit the iceberg and saying "I don't see what the big deal is, so far no one has died".
If you want to compare apples to apples, get back to us at years end and compare Covid-19 to influenza. And if somehow it turns out disaster is averted, or even that the experts were somehow wrong or over reacted.....GREAT. But for now you go with the models and prepare for the worst and hope for the best.
Hi KJ. First, I do remember your thinking that casinos would be closed. Interesting Titanic analogy. I pretty much agree with your underlying position. I would like to suggest, though, that the rise in confirmed cases is expected just on the basis of more testing being conducted. I've not heard an expert say that infections aren't increasing, but I don't think the data is saying that the infection rate has increased 600%, just the known cases.
Alaska's 2nd and 3rd cases are in Fairbanks, which is a conservative town with a strong Libertarian bend. When the mayor addressed his city, he did so standing alone. He said that he knew that there was controversy revolving underreacting or overreacting. His message was that if he over reacts, they will never really know, but if he under reacts they definitely will. I never knew who the Fairbank's Mayor was and he made a great first impression on me.
This is true Wasilla. But the fact remains that this virus, Covid-19, is spreading much faster than the flu ever does. The numbers I saw for transmission rate was that each infected person infects almost 3 more people, where as the flu is less than half that amount. This is probably because there is a delay from a person being infected with Covid-19 until they show symptom, and some have symptoms so mild they don't even know. They think it is a cold and go on infecting others.Quote:
Originally Posted by wasilla
do the math:
Flu: 1 person, x 1.5 = 1.5 x 1.5 = 2.25 x 1.5 = 3.37 x 1.5 = 5.06 x 1.5 = 7.59 x 1.5 = 11.39 x 1.5 = 17.08. so 7 degree and 1 infected person leads to 17 infected people.
Now Covid-19. 1 person x 3 = 3 x 3 = 9 x 3 = 27, x 3 = 81 x 3 = 243 x 3 = 729 x 3 = 2187. so same 7 degrees and 1 person leads to 2187 infected people.
By that standard, even if the death rate was exactly what the flu is at about .1%, Covid-19 had the potential to kill so many more people.
Please see my response to Accounting question (https://vegascasinotalk.com/forum/sh...8434#post98434) where I outline the tabulation procedure for an apples to apple comparison. Note that I have written nothing about the infection rate up until this point, only the mortality rate. If a lot of people have influenza then they cannot be infected by it again until they don't have it. Since Covid19 is new, so that a lot of people do not have it, people can get infected by it in large numbers (i.e. if everyone was infected by it then no one could get infected by it in the future until they no longer have the infection). Anyway the statement that the main stream media doesn't compare the two is true - it is not being done which is all I originally asserted.Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJIt is not about the numbers right now. Hell 100 dead (half in one senior community) is nothing anymore. That is a couple mass shootings. :( It is about what is projected in the very near future, 30 days from now.Quote:
Originally Posted by tableplay
Look on Friday (March 13) we hit 1000 cases in the US. Today 4 days later we went over 6000 cases. That is a 600% increase! Influenza is never, ever on that kind of trajectory. They use models that tell what is likely to happen, similar to how AP's use simulations. And the models indicate a pretty beak picture. Now maybe something will happen that will change that trajectory. But for now those models are the best predictor of what is coming and not all that far down the road.
You comparing the current death and infection rate, very early in this pandemic to influenza YEARLY totals is ridiculous. The analogy I used on another forum is it would be like standing on the deck of the Titanic 10 minutes after it had hit the iceberg and saying "I don't see what the big deal is, so far no one has died".
If you want to compare apples to apples, get back to us at years end and compare Covid-19 to influenza. And if somehow it turns out disaster is averted, or even that the experts were somehow wrong or over reacted.....GREAT. But for now you go with the models and prepare for the worst and hope for the best.
Your math is a little beyond me, But I already accept that it is much more infectious than the common flu.Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJThis is true Wasilla. But the fact remains that this virus, Covid-19, is spreading much faster than the flu ever does. The numbers I saw for transmission rate was that each infected person infects almost 3 more people, where as the flu is less than half that amount. This is probably because there is a delay from a person being infected with Covid-19 until they show symptom, and some have symptoms so mild they don't even know. They think it is a cold and go on infecting others.Quote:
Originally Posted by wasilla
do the math:
Flu: 1 person, x 1.5 = 1.5 x 1.5 = 2.25 x 1.5 = 3.37 x 1.5 = 5.06 x 1.5 = 7.59 x 1.5 = 11.39 x 1.5 = 17.08. so 7 degree and 1 infected person leads to 17 infected people.
Now Covid-19. 1 person x 3 = 3 x 3 = 9 x 3 = 27, x 3 = 81 x 3 = 243 x 3 = 729 x 3 = 2187. so same 7 degrees and 1 person leads to 2187 infected people.
By that standard, even if the death rate was exactly what the flu is at about .1%, Covid-19 had the potential to kill so many more people.
If anyone cares, since my last post I saw my governor's news conference. He reported 3 more cases, and announced a bipartisan commission for economic stability which included respected leaders from both Republican and Democratic persuasions. He then turned it over to a couple experts who explained what was happening in the State, why it mattered, what they were going to do about it and why. 100% professional with zero misinformation. Statewide, our bars and restaurants shut down after tonight among other measures.. A lot of people won't like that, but I think that everyone watching recognized that these people had the State's best interests at heart. I really, really dislike my Governor on a normal day. I'm proud of him tonight.
And one more thing for those that want to compare this to the flu. We have a flu vaccine every year and millions of people get a flu shot and still 30,000 people in this country die. Imagine if there was no flu shot vaccine. What would that number be? And that is what we are dealing with....there is no vaccine (yet).
Everybody knows the number of infected people is far far below what's being reported. Few have been tested, many show zero symptoms, and many more refused to go for the test because if it comes back positive they likely lose their livelihood.Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJIt is not about the numbers right now. Hell 100 dead (half in one senior community) is nothing anymore. That is a couple mass shootings. :( It is about what is projected in the very near future, 30 days from now.Quote:
Originally Posted by tableplay
Look on Friday (March 13) we hit 1000 cases in the US. Today 4 days later we went over 6000 cases. That is a 600% increase! Influenza is never, ever on that kind of trajectory. They use models that tell what is likely to happen, similar to how AP's use simulations. And the models indicate a pretty beak picture. Now maybe something will happen that will change that trajectory. But for now those models are the best predictor of what is coming and not all that far down the road.
You comparing the current death and infection rate, very early in this pandemic to influenza YEARLY totals is ridiculous. The analogy I used on another forum is it would be like standing on the deck of the Titanic 10 minutes after it had hit the iceberg and saying "I don't see what the big deal is, so far no one has died".
If you want to compare apples to apples, get back to us at years end and compare Covid-19 to influenza. And if somehow it turns out disaster is averted, or even that the experts were somehow wrong or over reacted.....GREAT. But for now you go with the models and prepare for the worst and hope for the best.
Either way, I like that the public is finally getting a good JOLT on how best to not transmit or pick up germs, and why it's a great idea to move away from coughers & sneezes and to shame them if they're too stupid to completely cover their faces with their arm or clothes.
If there were no flu vaccine deaths would be in the hundreds of thousands. This new virus will eventually be vaccined right out of sight.Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
FYI: https://komonews.com/news/coronaviru...vid-19-vaccineQuote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
When they force all Casinos to close down in Vegas and the Casinos comply... you know something is serious.
What are the odds they are simply lying to the general public about how serious it really is?
Isn't that what China did in the beginning and now they kicked all US Journalist's out.
China has also threatened to stop sending the US medicine or pills.
At the rate they are shutting everything down, it won't be long till the food supply stops.
Once people can't get food you will start to see all the gun play.
This is one reason why I wonder if what they are doing is going to cause more deaths than just letting everyone catch it.
They tell us they will only shut down for 2 weeks or a month but I am pretty sure we are going to be shut down 4 to 6 months at minimum.
Martial Law is right around the corner as they are starting to deploy the National Guard.
If they come to your door and demand your guns are you going to comply??
I was watching 12 monkey's again and I found it funny when they stated everyone just thought it was some weird fever at first.
Vegas will be in huge trouble because we ship all the food in and at the rate they are going, they are going to shut all transport down.
If they don't shut it down it won't be long till the transporters get sick and can't work which will slow or halt the food supply.
I guess all cities are pretty much screwed as most food is shipped in?
Perhaps all the hype is creating some panic inside of me as well but watching the run on the grocery stores kinda creates that.
I was laughing about how it was a run on the banks in 1929 and now its a run on the grocery stores as I was stocking up on supplies.
Nobody wanted Oatmeal but I bought it lol.
El Super had a huge line waiting as they changed the store hours from 7 to 8am.
What is upsetting is that I used to go to a 24 hour grocery store at 3am and now they changed their hours to close at night.
First time I ever seen the parking lot full at 6am lol.
I miss the 80s.
Nevada casinos ordered to close for 30 days. That's damn drastic.
China controls way to much of the American pharmaceutical market. We are dependent on them for way to much medicine. Trump has said he doesn't blame China for this. He blames past American Presidents for allowing it to happen. Hopefully, he's doing something to get production back in the U.S.
If you study World History this is nothing new.
It has happened time and time again.
Hey! We had a good run till they started to let the women and homosexuals take over.
Allowing 12 year olds to transgender was just too much.
Notice how after the NHL had an All Woman Broadcast everything got shut down.
God is not happy.
Party's Over.
Right now cash is King. I know manny blackjack players keep big chip inventories(worthless to most people at this time, other than perhaps other advantage players). I wonder if they went out to cash them all in(that might cause some suspicion) or they'll just keep them until afterwards.
Does Vegas gaming force casinos to have cash-like assets to back all their chips? I've heard of casinos being shutdown because they didn't have enough cash on hand for general operations, but not sure about the inevitable large amount of cash chips some vegas places might have. Could a place go bankrupt and just not honor their chips. Or never open back up?Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolf
I don't expect this to happen on the strip, but seems reasonable it could happen somewhere. Gaming is so different across the country.
Mr AxelWolf asked excellent questions. Yes, for every chip there must be the dollar equivalent on hand at the property. But the casinos are closed so this is a moot point. Casinos are allowed temporary closings but they must follow regulations. In a bankruptcy you would expect chip holders to be paid unless it's found that there isn't enough cash.
Now a real situation: last night I heard from players who went to cash out comp balances and free play after the Governor's announcement but could not. Accounts were locked immediately and not at midnight which was the closing time.
But are there laws with bite that prevent casinos from spending that money? Probably not everywhere.Quote:
Originally Posted by AndrewG
I am one of those blackjack AP that keeps and plays with a chip inventory for most of my Las Vegas Rotation, which numbers over 30 casinos. Some of the smaller places that I only play a couple times a months, I don't keep a chip inventory, but for about 2/3 of my rotation I do. When I made the decision to cease playing almost 2 weeks ago, the first thing I did was spend a day and a half cashing in not all but most of my chip inventory. I am still sitting on some chips but not a lot.Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolf
The reason was less about having more cash, but more about a worse case scenario. At that time, I saw a strong possibly that the casinos would be forced to shut down for a period and they may need to replace all chips when they are able to reopen, being that chips are highly contagious. If that were to happen they have to be able to allow players to cash in the old chips, but that is the point I though having thousands and thousands of chips (at numerous casinos) might raise suspicion. I mean regular players aren't sitting on thousands of dollars in casino chips. That is kind of an AP thing, because the benefit is great for AP as far as entering and exiting games quickly and avoiding the cage cash out.